News & Commentary:

Articles/Commentary

Xi’s crackdown has hit obvious targets
Jerome Cohen (FT) Jan 1, 2015
For all China’s economic might, it is more tense than foreigners realise.

Will finance find its inner lion in 2015?
Ralph Atkins (FT) Jan 1, 2015
Tamed by central banks, markets have lost the ability to frighten.

Twin Peaks Planet
Paul Krugman (NYT) Jan 1, 2015
Our current global setup isn’t working for everyone. What consequences from that are ahead if we don’t do something about it?

American innovation is in trouble
Fareed Zakaria (WP) Jan 1, 2015
The United States isn’t laying the groundwork for the next technological revolution.

The Calm Before the Storm
Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Gregory F. Treverton (FA) Jan 1, 2015

Europe Reborn
Matthias Matthijs and R. Daniel Kelemen (FA) Jan 1, 2015
How to save the European Union from irrelevance.

The Anti-Innovators
James Bessen (FA) Jan 1, 2015
How special interests undermine entrepreneurship.

The Power of Market Creation
Bryan C. Mezue, Clayton M. Christensen, and Derek van Bever (FA) Jan 1, 2015
How innovation can Spur development.

The ‘Divergent’ World of 2015
Niall Ferguson (WSJ) Jan 2, 2015
Veronica Roth’s novel offers a useful way of viewing global politics and economics. Let’s hear it for Dauntless America.

Do Economic Sanctions Work?
Kenneth Rogoff (Project Syndicate) Jan 2, 2015
With Western economic sanctions against Russia, Iran, and Cuba in the news, it is a good time to take stock of the debate on just how well such measures work. The short answer is that economic sanctions usually have only modest effects, even if they can be an essential means of demonstrating moral resolve.

Stability and Prosperity in Monetary Union
Mario Draghi (Project Syndicate) Jan 2, 2015
There is a common misconception that the eurozone is a monetary union without a political union. In fact, monetary union is possible only because of the substantial integration already achieved among European Union countries – and sharing a single currency deepens that integration.

The Next Chinese Economy
Zhang Monan (Project Syndicate) Jan 2, 2015
China’s economy may be decelerating, but its prospects remain strong, with GDP possibly reaching $10 trillion in 2014. Once it weathers the current rebalancing, it could well be stronger than ever.

Education, and constitutional rights: An international comparative study
Sebastian Edwards, Alvaro F. Garcia Marin (VoxEU) Jan 2, 2015
Given the widely recognised importance of institutions to economic development, the question arises of how to promote development through institutional change. This column investigates how constitutional provision of the right to education affects educational attainment. Initial analysis indicates a negative correlation, but this relationship is not robust to controlling for legal origin. Factors such as judicial review likely affect implementation of constitutional provisions.

A Weary Greece Considers Its Options
NYT Jan 3, 2015
Voters, battered by misguided austerity policies, are looking beyond mainstream political parties.

Greece’s election: The euro’s next crisis
Economist Jan 3, 2015
Why an early election spells big dangers for Greece---and for the euro.

New evidence on the portfolio balance effect of QE
Michael A S Joyce, Zhuoshi Liu and Ian Tonks (VoxEU) Jan 3, 2015
Central banks in advanced economies implemented quantitative easing (QE) as a response to the Global Crisis. A key transmission mechanism of QE, emphasised by policymakers, has been the ‘portfolio balance’ channel. This column describes behaviour of insurance companies and pension funds using sectoral and micro-level data from the UK. The results show that investors shifted their portfolios away from government bonds towards corporate bonds. But portfolio rebalancing has been limited to corporate bonds and did not extend to equities.

US should enjoy sunshine while it lasts
Edward Luce (FT) Jan 4, 2015
In 2015 Europe will still be waiting for Godot while America copes with return to normality.

Time to put a proper price on carbon
Lawrence Summers (FT) Jan 4, 2015
The fall in oil prices and declines in other energy prices make the case for a tax overwhelming.

Extremists may be eurozone’s saviours
Wolfgang Munchau (FT) Jan 4, 2015
The probability of at least one political upset in 2015 is very high indeed.

A handy tool — but not the only one in the box
Martin Wolf (FT) Jan 4, 2015
Richard Koo’s ‘The Escape from Balance Sheet Recession and the QE Trap’ should be read.

Scrutiny of retail forex platforms needed
Jonathan Ford (FT) Jan 4, 2015
Bets sold as way to dodge investment doldrums and get rich quick.

Permanent capital: Perpetual cash machines
Henny Sender and Stephen Foley (FT) Jan 4, 2015
Private equity and hedge funds seek new holy grail: a never-ending supply of money to invest.

The Myth of Asia: Now Perpetrated By Asians Themselves
Jean-Pierre Lehmann (Globalist) Jan 4, 2015
Why "Asia" never made any sense.

Capital flows, emerging markets and the global financial cycle
Erlend W Nier and Tahsin Saadi Sedik (VoxEU) Jan 4, 2015
Large and volatile capital flows into emerging economies since the Global Financial Crisis have re-invigorated efforts to unearth the determinants of these flows. This column investigates the interplay between global risk aversion (captured by the VIX) and countries’ characteristics. The authors also explore what policies countries should employ to protect themselves against the volatility of capital flows. The findings indicate that capital flows to emerging markets cannot be controlled without incurring substantial costs.

West loses intellectual self-confidence
Gideon Rachman (FT) Jan 5, 2015
Faith in three props of post-cold war world - markets, democracy and US power - has faltered.

Monetary activism is a virus in politics
James Grant (FT) Jan 5, 2015
Investors toast low rates with no thought to the repayment.

Step back to go forward on global growth
Jay Pelosky (FT) Jan 5, 2015
Regional integration can act as stimulant to refresh globalisation.

Banking growth is not a given
Patrick Jenkins (FT) Jan 5, 2015
What if centuries of steady expansion in the banking industry were about to go into reverse?

What a Stronger Dollar Means for the Economy
Neil Irwin (NYT) Jan 5, 2015
The seemingly inexorable rise of the dollar versus the euro and most other currencies has broad implications this year and beyond.

The Reshaping of Europe's Financial System
Nicolas Véron (Caixin/PIIE) Jan 5, 2015
Financial crises always challenge conventional assumptions about financial systems. Europe is no exception. Before 2007, most Europeans thought that their system, which was dominated by banks supervised by national authorities, provided them the safe and efficient financial services they needed.

Banking on 2015: Sobering Thoughts
Andrew Sheng (Globalist) Jan 5, 2015
Is the global banking system "simpler, safer and fairer"?

Germany Does Care About a Greek Exit
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Jan 5, 2015
Allies of German Chancellor Angela Merkel have signaled it would be OK with Germany if Greece exited the euro. In reality, they will fight to the last to keep it in the eurozone.

Draghi Can't Bluff This Time
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Jan 5, 2015
Mario Draghi bluffed markets in July 2012 with his "whatever it takes" pledge. He can't pull that stunt a second time.

Keep Your Eye on Four Things This Week
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Jan 5, 2015
January indicators: oil prices, Greek elections, U.S. wage growth and the Fed's choice of words.

New Year Won't End Argentina Bond Mess
Mac Margolis (Bloomberg View) Jan 5, 2015
The end of the RUFO clause is promising. But hold the Malbec.

As Goes Greece, So Goes the Euro
Bloomberg View Jan 5, 2015
Any country exiting the euro would throw the common currency's continued existence into doubt.

Mexico is Burning
Jorge G. Castañeda (Project Syndicate) Jan 5, 2015
Mexico is facing its worse crisis in 20 years, as protests against violence and corruption threaten to derail Enrique Peña Nieto's presidency. Peña Nieto must confront the political elite that brought him to power, or risk a populist backlash that could destroy much of what Mexico has achieved over the last two decades.

Japan’s Vote for Bold Reform
Shinzo Abe (Project Syndicate) Jan 5, 2015
After an overwhelming victory in a snap election, Japan's government has a mandate to launch what has become known as the “third arrow” of so-called Abenomics: structural reform. And the main task ahead – restoring Japan’s economy – is inseparable from safeguarding the country’s position as a global force for peace and prosperity.

A New Cold War Order?
Mikhail Gorbachev (Project Syndicate) Jan 5, 2015
The Cold War’s end was supposed to mark the beginning of a path toward a new Europe and a safer world order. Instead, euphoria and triumphalism went to Western leaders’ heads, with consequences that are now visible to all.

Paul Krugman and the Obama Recovery
Jeffrey D. Sachs (Project Syndicate) Jan 5, 2015
The Nobel laureate economist is a great economic theorist – and a great polemicist. But he should replace his polemical hat with his analytical one and reflect more deeply on recent experience: rather than throwing the US back into recession, deficit reduction has been accompanied by recovery, job creation, and lower unemployment.

Multinational firms and transfer pricing: New evidence
Ronald B. Davies, Julien Martin, Mathieu Parenti and Farid Toubal (VoxEU) Jan 5, 2015
Allegations of tax-avoiding transfer pricing by multinational firms are common, but economic evidence is scarce. This column discusses detailed price data for intra-firm and arm’s length transactions that reveals tax-driven transfer pricing, and suggests that it may be reduced by focusing on a small number of large firms in a small number of tax havens.

Deflation is a rising threat for markets
John Plender (FT) Jan 6, 2015
The world is prey to the growing problem of deficient demand.

An Aging Europe in Decline
Arthur C. Brooks (NYT) Jan 6, 2015
If it doesn't invest in newcomers, family and work, it's doomed.

Rare-Earths Resistance
WSJ Jan 6, 2015
China stages a mercantilist retreat, at least for now.

The Double-Edged Dollar
WSJ Jan 6, 2015
The rising buck is good for consumers, but watch out for overshooting.

Oil’s price turnaround
David Ignatius (WP) Jan 6, 2015
The market, not politicians, drives the steep dive in the cost of oil.

Mr. Draghi, Hands Off the Inflation Button!
Martin Hüfner (Globalist) Jan 6, 2015
The European Central Bank needs to realize the monetary policy bucket is now empty.

On economic forecasting
Ian Kelly (Pieria) Jan 6, 2015
Regression to the mean is a bigger and stronger phenomenon than most people tend to recognise.

Greece: Exiting the Euro or Not?
Meghnad Desai (Globalist) Jan 6, 2015
The Greek people and the German government may favor the same option.

Fear the Grexit
Megan McArdle (Bloomberg View) Jan 6, 2015
Talk of a Greek exit from the euro zone may become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Bond Yields Are Down in Japan, and the U.K., and Germany, and France, and ...
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Jan 6, 2015
Declining government borrowing costs are a worrying signal about the outlook for growth and inflation.

Cheap Oil Is Rich Opportunity for Asia
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Jan 6, 2015
Falling fuel prices are a chance for China and India to undertake difficult reforms.

A Comeback Strategy for Europe
Carl Bildt and Javier Solana (Project Syndicate) Jan 6, 2015
The talks on the EU-US Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership have become so deeply mired in Europe's domestic controversies that the entire initiative could be scuttled. If it fails, Europe will face potentially devastating economic and strategic consequences.

Darkness on the Edge of Europe
Yuliya Tymoshenko (Project Syndicate) Jan 6, 2015
Whether Ukraine is reduced to a semi-sovereign buffer state, and the rule of brute force is given free rein, depends on whether world leaders understand that appeasement begets only further aggression. If they do not, 2015 could mark the return of a European and world order that was supposedly overcome seven decades ago.

The Global Consequences of Russia’s Isolation
Harold James and Domenico Lombardi (Project Syndicate) Jan 6, 2015
Russia’s crisis reveals the fragility not only of its economy, but also of the existing international order and contemporary thinking about economic and political sustainability. Indeed, Russia’s crisis was never supposed to happen – and its growing isolation gives it little stake in existing mechanisms of global governance.

Plummeting Oil Prices Upend Global Economy
Chris Miller (YaleGlobal) Jan 6, 2015
Oil importing nations celebrate while the exporters scramble to balance budgets and keep markets.

The Bank of England fails its transparency test
Barry Eichengreen and Petra Geraats (VoxEU) Jan 6, 2015
The Bank of England has been a beacon for openness and transparency. This column argues that proposed changes to its procedures will worsen transparency. The changes would make the policymaking process less efficient in the name of transparency. But transparency is not an end in itself. Rather, it is a tool for enhancing accountability and, just as importantly, advancing the ultimate goal of making monetary policy more efficient and effective.

Riyadh's Oil Play
Bilal Y. Saab and Robert A. Manning (FA) Jan 6, 2015
Why the kingdom is keeping prices low.

ECB QE will not make EU a good investment
Alberto Gallo (FT) Jan 7, 2015
Monetary stimulus alone is not enough; government action is also needed.

Regulators right to cut banks down to size
John Gapper (FT) Jan 7, 2015
Fed’s new capital standards hint at forcing complex institutions to break themselves up.

China must adapt to its ‘new normal’
David Pilling (FT) Jan 7, 2015
The trick for policy makers will be to shift resources from the public to the private sector.

Europe has borne deflation but prospered
Bilal Hafeez (FT) Jan 7, 2015
Policy makers should learn from history and not panic.

ECB QE will not make EU a good investment
Alberto Gallo (FT) Jan 7, 2015
Stimulus alone is not enough; government action is also needed.

Sri Lanka: Test for triumphalism
James Crabtree (FT) Jan 7, 2015
Rajapaksa’s expected victory in the polls is now uncertain in the face of a resurgent opposition.

Other dramas may follow oil’s plot change
Dan McCrum (FT) Jan 7, 2015
Key global commodity’s dramatic price falls mean analysts could miss big changes in other markets.

Europe’s unending crisis
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Jan 7, 2015
It is caught in a trap of high debts and low growth.

Greece's Latest Travails Are Not Europe's Problem This Time
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE) Jan 7, 2015
The failure of Prime Minister Antonis Samaras to assemble enough votes to install a new Greek president has resulted in a call for elections for January 25. This worrisome development reflects Samaras's inability to articulate a political strategy beyond the narrow one of saving his own coalition of only 155 out of 300 members of parliament.

Why Fighting Oligarchs Is a Bad Idea
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Jan 7, 2015
Syriza, the Greek leftist party, says it will crack down on local oligarchs -- a slogan that always ends in more government control and more oligarchy.

China's Big Year Ahead
Jim O'Neill (Bloomberg View) Jan 7, 2015
While many experts remain pessimistic about China's economy, there are three good reasons to be bullish.

The Price of Oil in 2015
Jim O'Neill (Project Syndicate) Jan 7, 2015
Oil prices may not be about to start rising again, but, as 2014 comes to a close, forces that will eventually halt their decline are beginning to appear. Though prices may continue to drop in the short term, unlike in the past four years, they are likely to be higher at the end of 2015 than they were at the beginning.

The Erosion of Law
Ana Palacio (Project Syndicate) Jan 7, 2015
Last year was characterized by the continued rise of “soft” instruments to address global challenges: decrees, self-regulation, joint plans of action, and handshake deals. While this approach makes it easier to reach agreement, its lack of regard for strong compliance mechanisms makes it inadequate to confront the world's toughest problems.

The Global Crisis and the global renminbi
Alex Cukierman (VoxEU) Jan 7, 2015
The Global Crisis has increased the importance of the renminbi as an international currency. This column describes how the status of the remnibi has changed relative to that of the dollar and the euro. It also discusses what their future as future currencies would be. The author suggests that within 10 years, the renminbi would be at least at par with the dollar as a regional trade settlement currency in East Asia. It is also likely to become a close second to the euro as a world reserve currency.

US export economy fails to import jobs
Gillian Tett (FT) Jan 8, 2015
American businesses are now so efficient they require fewer workers.

Politics to blame for plutocrats’ rise
Paul Marshall (FT) Jan 8, 2015
Put simply, the economy is run by the rich for the rich.

Russia: Dangers of isolation
Kathrin Hille (FT) Jan 8, 2015
Cracks exposed in Vladmir Putin’s dream of building a Eurasian economic powerhouse.

Tech groups look for next big thing
Richard Waters (FT) Jan 8, 2015
Techies challenged to invent breakout apps for internet of things.

Beware the Currency Wars of 2015
Mike Newton (WSJ) Jan 8, 2015
More aggressive currency devaluations in Asia and Europe could create great systemic risks world-wide.

Multiple Currencies and Gresham’s Law in Zimbabwe
Finbar Feehan-Fitzgerald (Mises Daily) Jan 8, 2015
Zimbabwe hit the headlines in the 2000s due to its extraordinary inflation rate, peaking at a monthly rate of 79.6 billion percent in November 2008. The hyperinflation was a result of Robert Mugabe’s government’s printing of excess money in order to finance government corruption as well as involvement in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

TTIP and GMOs: The European Race to Please America
Stephan Richter (Globalist) Jan 8, 2015
The amateurishness and subservience of European politicians coming to Washington knows no bounds.

East Asia's Population "Death Spiral"
Gordon G. Chang (WA) Jan 8, 2015
As Japan’s population ages and shrinks, along with those of most other East Asia countries, the region finds itself on a demographic “suicide watch” unprecedented in history.

Standing Up to Putin
Bogdan Klich (Project Syndicate) Jan 8, 2015
The accumulation of conflicts and crises in Eastern Europe and the Middle East present new challenges for NATO and the European Union. Both institutions need to clarify their objectives, beginning by helping Ukraine stand up to Russia's Vladimir Putin and join the community of democratic, liberal, and prosperous countries.

Putin in Denial
Anders Åslund (Project Syndicate) Jan 8, 2015
Russia faces a serious – and intensifying – financial crisis. But the country's biggest problem remains President Vladimir Putin, who continues to deny reality while pursuing policies that will only make the situation worse.

Europe’s Lapse of Reason
Joseph E. Stiglitz (Project Syndicate) Jan 8, 2015
If Europe does not change its ways – if it does not reform the eurozone and repeal austerity – a popular backlash will become inevitable. Though Greece may stay the course following its early election later this month, democracy will not permit the economic madness to continue.

It’s the Economy, Tunisia
Olin L. Wethington (Project Syndicate) Jan 8, 2015
Tunisia is the only Arab Spring country that appears to be on a path to genuine democratic governance, having adopted a new constitution and held free and fair parliamentary and presidential elections. But unless the incoming government acts quickly to revive the country's moribund economy, the country's impressive gains could be lost.

Will Cuba Rejoin the IMF?
James M. Boughton (Project Syndicate) Jan 8, 2015
The decision by the US to reestablish diplomatic relations with Cuba opens the possibility that the island will rejoin the International Monetary Fund, which it left in 1964. But will Cuba apply, and can the US circumvent its own law barring Cuba's admission?

Democracy and the threat of revolution: New evidence
Toke S. Aidt, Gabriel Leon, Raphael Franck, Peter S. Jensen (VoxEU) Jan 8, 2015
Some theories suggest that the threat of revolution plays a pivotal role in democratisation. This column provides new evidence in support of this hypothesis. The authors use democratic transitions from Europe in the 19th century, Africa at the turn at the 20th century, and the Great Reform Act of 1832 in Great Britain. They find that credible threats of revolution have systematically triggered pre-emptive democratic reforms throughout history.

How to design the European banking union?
Marius Zoican (VoxEU) Jan 8, 2015
The Global Financial Crisis has ignited the debate about a European banking union. Whereas most research focuses on the single supervision mechanism for European banks, this column analyses the advantages and disadvantages of having a single resolution mechanism. If banks hold opaque assets, local resolution authorities can still play an important role in the new regulatory framework.

How to Stop Currency Manipulation
Jared Bernstein (NYT) Jan 9, 2015
The United States should insist on protections against currency manipulation as part of any trade agreement it enters into.

Obama’s College Proposal Is Also a Bid to Rev the Economy
Justin Wolfers (NYT) Jan 9, 2015
Rising education levels were a crucial factor in America’s economic growth. The president hopes they can be again.

Suddenly, BRIC Markets Are on a Shakier Foundation
Paul J. Lim (NYT) Jan 9, 2015
Investing in the BRIC countries — Brazil, Russia, India and China — once was a prudent way to benefit from emerging-market growth. But experts say times have changed.

Five Years Later: Where Did All the Haiti Aid Go?
Raymond Joseph (WSJ) Jan 9, 2015
Five years after the earthquake, nobody can claim it was mainly Haitians who squandered the money.

Japan Flirts With Governance Reform
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Jan 9, 2015
Japan may be on the verge of fixing poor corporate governance.

Why the Fed Worries About Others
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Jan 9, 2015
The U.S. financial markets and economy are more and more tied to conditions in other countries.

OPEC Tries Stamping Out Frackers
Justin Fox (Bloomberg View) Jan 9, 2015
The Saudis want to to impose order on the world oil market. It won’t be easy.

New Europe’s Old Ghosts
Mark Mazower (Project Syndicate) Jan 9, 2015
The past stalked Europe in 2014. When the year started, the centennial of the Great War’s outbreak attracted much commemorative energy; and, as it progressed, disturbing parallels appeared – not to 1914, but to some of the nastier features of the interwar years.

European Jobs Wanted
Justine Doody and Daniel Schraad-Tischler (Project Syndicate) Jan 9, 2015
If the EU is to fulfill its promise of peace and prosperity, it will need to find ways to create job opportunities for more of its citizens. Unless new thinking is adopted soon, Europe's many unemployed young people risk becoming a lost generation.

Global supply chains and the transmission of shocks
Christoph E. Boehm, Aaron Flaaen and Nitya Pandalai Nayar (VoxEU) Jan 9, 2015
There is an ongoing debate among economists whether international trade contributes to business cycles synchronisation. So far, causal evidence has been limited. This column presents new research on the role of multinational firms in the transmission of shocks. The authors use a rich firm-level dataset from the US Census Bureau and the 2011 Japanese earthquake/tsunami as a natural experiment. They find that US firms with high dependence on Japanese inputs suffered large output losses following the earthquake. Global supply chains, therefore, play an important role in the cross-country transmission of shocks.

Preferential trading agreements: Helping economic reform in developing countries
Leonardo Baccini, Johannes Urpelainen (VoxEU) Jan 9, 2015
From 1990 to 2009, more than 500 preferential trading agreements were formed by countries of all stripes. This column argues that the non-trade reform effects are central to understanding the causes and consequences of the recent trade agreement wave. Developing country leaders use deep, legally binding trade agreements with major economic powers, especially the US and the EU, to enact and implement politically controversial domestic reforms.

Global Monetary Policy Amidst Deflationary Concerns
Ana Maria Santacreu (FRBSL Economic Synopses) Jan 9, 2015
Fear of demand-driven deflation calls for expansionary economic policies.

What Vlad can learn from Chad
Economist Jan 10, 2015
Why some commodity exporters are coping better with lower prices than others.

Short-term migration, rural workfare programmes, and urban labour markets
Clément Imbert (VoxEU) Jan 10, 2015
Rural policies that affect migration to the cities may have significant impact on urban labour markets. However, there is little empirical evidence on the magnitude of these effects. This column argues that India’s rural employment guarantee – the world’s largest workfare programme – reduces short-term migration from rural areas. At the same time, it increases wages of urban unskilled workers.

Eurozone must act before deflation grips
Wolfgang Münchau (FT) Jan 11, 2015
A helicopter drop would work — but I fear it would be too unconventional for the European mind.

The Myth of the Carbon Investment ‘Bubble’
Nancy Meyer and Lysle Brinker (WSJ) Jan 11, 2015
Bad news for alarmists: Global integrated oil and gas companies since 2008 have traded at a 30% discount.

Can Wonks Save Finance From Itself?
Luigi Zingales (Bloomberg View) Jan 11, 2015
Does finance benefit society? Academics need a better answer.

Brazil’s closedness to trade
Otaviano Canuto, Cornelius Fleischhaker and Philip Schellekens (VoxEU) Jan 11, 2015
While Brazil has become one of the largest economies in the world, it remains among the most closed economies as measured by the share of exports and imports in GDP. This column argues that this cannot be explained simply by the size of Brazil’s economy. Rather it is due to a reliance on domestic value chain integration as opposed to participation in global production networks. Greater trade openness could produce efficiency gains and help Brazil address its productivity and competitiveness challenges.

Greece and Europe need to avoid Grexit
Tony Barber (FT) Jan 12, 2015
The election rests on who will be able to lead the rescue programme.

Japan tests secular stagnation thesis
Bill Emmott (FT) Jan 12, 2015
This year we will see if wages rise, sustainably, as the labour shortage bites.

Crises test Merkel’s steady approach
Stefan Wagstyl (FT) Jan 12, 2015
Dogged management by the German chancellor has not brought growth needed in the eurozone.

Greece and Russia face high debt problem
Mohamed El-Erian (FT) Jan 12, 2015
Both countries at high risk of falling victim to fickle investors.

Greece and Europe need to avoid Grexit
Tony Barber (FT) Jan 12, 2015
The election rests on who will be able to lead the rescue programme.

Greece’s debt crisis is far from a resolution
Catherine Rampell (WP) Jan 12, 2015
More years and rounds of restructuring are likely for Greece and its peers.

Greek Theater and Europe's Future
Daniel Stelter (Globalist) Jan 12, 2015
Why politicians welcome the Grexit debate — and why it will do little to solve Europe's woes.

Cheap Oil, Costly Power
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Jan 12, 2015
Enlightened self-interest suggests utilities should pass on cheaper energy savings before governments force them to.

America's Going to Lose the Oil Price War
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Jan 12, 2015
In the oil price war, U.S. frackers are squared off against countries, not businesses like themselves.

The Geopolitics of 17 Very Obscure Minerals
Adam Minter (Bloomberg View) Jan 12, 2015
China has been the world’s primary source of rare earths since the 1990s. And that makes them much more than just a commodity.

East Asia's Historical Shackles
Brahma Chellaney (Project Syndicate) Jan 12, 2015
East Asia's "history problem" has been intensifying lately, with growing nationalism in China, Japan, and South Korea fueling disputes over everything from territory and natural resources to war memorials and textbooks. Can East Asian countries overcome their legacy of conflict to forge a common future that benefits all?

A New Sino-Russian Alliance?
Joseph S. Nye (Project Syndicate) Jan 12, 2015
In 2014, China and Russia ostensibly made great strides in advancing their economic and diplomatic cooperation, leading many to predict a revival of the Cold War alliance system of the mid-twentieth century. But the two countries are unlikely to be able to build a serious partnership to challenge the West.

Europe at War
George Soros (Project Syndicate) Jan 12, 2015
Assisting Ukraine to defend itself against Russian aggression would have a stimulative effect not only on Ukraine, but also on Europe. That is why the EU ought to be even more committed to helping Ukraine than it is to imposing sanctions on Russia.

The Truth About Currency Manipulation
C. Fred Bergsten (FA) Jan 12, 2015
Congress and the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Assessing progress for the poorest: New evidence
Martin Ravallion (VoxEU) Jan 12, 2015
The proportion of the population in the developing world that lives below the poverty line has been decreasing. This column argues, however, that such a counting approach is not the only way to assess whether the poorest have been reached. An alternative is to use the success in raising the consumption floor as an indicator of social progress. When applying such an approach, the author finds little progress for the poorest.

US energy: Off the grid
Ed Crooks (FT) Jan 13, 2015
Utilities fear ‘death spiral’ as more businesses and homes produce own power with solar and wind.

Change is afoot for Asia’s family empires
Jennifer Hughes (FT) Jan 13, 2015
Investors are betting on which of the other conglomerates will follow Li Ka-shing’s lead.

Economic History Repeating
Roger Lowenstein (WSJ) Jan 13, 2015
In the 1920s, electrification spurred a faith in rising productivity, fooling regulators. The same thing happened with the Web.

Higher Wages for Low-Income Workers Lead to Higher Productivity
Justin Wolfers and Jan Zilinsky (PIIE) Jan 13, 2015
Economists have long argued that increases in worker pay can lead to improvements in productivity—indeed, that it can actually be profitable to pay workers higher wages. As Alfred Marshall, the father of modern economics, argued almost 125 years ago, "any change in the distribution of wealth which gives more to the wage receivers and less to the capitalists is likely, other things being equal, to hasten the increase of material production."

Six reasons why we should not invest too much hope in lower oil prices
Georg Zachmann (Bruegel) Jan 13, 2015
Even if the oil price continues to hover around $50, it is unlikely to add more than one percentage point of growth to the EU economy. Given all mitigating factors, the effect is likely to be even less.

Greece Can Learn from Brazil and Argentina
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Jan 13, 2015
Syriza is sounding more moderate. It also needs to prepare for the worst.

Deflation Bells are Deafening
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Jan 13, 2015
As the risk of deflation grows, central banks including the Fed should be wary of raising interest rates.

What Are We Betting On?
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Project Syndicate) Jan 13, 2015
The world has collectively placed a huge bet on three fundamental outcomes: a shift toward more inclusive global growth, the avoidance of policy mistakes, and the prevention of market accidents. But all three developments are highly uncertain – and bets on them are exceedingly risky.

Don’t Bet on a Stronger Dollar
Barry Eichengreen (Project Syndicate) Jan 13, 2015
Economic pundits, almost without exception, are predicting a stronger dollar in 2015 – an expectation that is leading investors to place some very large bets. But that market strategy could turn out to be a very large mistake.

Economics and Its Critics
Hans-Werner Sinn (Project Syndicate) Jan 13, 2015
There is much to criticize in economics nowadays – not least that the profession focuses far too little on political issues and far too much on beating students to death with mathematics. But much current criticism of economics is based on misunderstanding and ignorance.

Wrong-Way Bets on Oil
Will Hickey (YaleGlobal) Jan 13, 2015
Nations are wary about fast-dropping oil prices and just how long those prices could stay low. Some nations are lured into ongoing dependence on fossil fuels while others reduce consumer subsidies and redirect funds into infrastructure development. Careful management of the windfalls is required, as the decisions will have lasting economic consequences.

The 2014 oil price slump: Seven key questions
Rabah Arezki and Olivier Blanchard (VoxEU) Jan 13, 2015
Plunging oil prices affect everyone, albeit no two countries will experience it in the same way. In this column, the IMF’s Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard and Senior Economist Rabah Arezki examine the causes as well as the consequences for various groups of countries and for financial stability more broadly. The analysis has important implications for how policymakers should address the impact on their economies.

Energy subsidies in developing countries
David Coady and Baoping Shang (VoxEU) Jan 13, 2015
The adverse effects of energy subsidies have been widely documented. While recent decreases in international oil prices have provided a welcome respite, past experience has highlighted the need for caution. This column argues that to make this respite a permanent gain will require the removal of government discretion in determining domestic energy prices. Adoption of an automatic energy pricing mechanism, possibly with in-built short-term price smoothing, can help prevent the return of subsidies and prepare the way for eventual price deregulation.

Delhi’s tortoise takes on Beijing’s hare
David Pilling (FT) Jan 14, 2015
There is now a realistic prospect of India growing faster than China — as early as next year.

EU deflation need not be negative
Sarah Gordon (FT) Jan 14, 2015
Corporate news supports a more positive scenario than the gloomy prognostications from the ECB.

Knowledge needed to prevent Lehman repeat
Andrew Haldane, Aurel Schubert and Richard Berner (FT) Jan 14, 2015
Global financial language essential to close dangerous data gaps.

Poland: One-way traffic
Henry Foy (FT) Jan 14, 2015
Known as an exporter of labour, now the country’s population is flatlining and the economy could falter.

Raising the US Wage Floor: The International Perspective
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard and Tyler Moran (PIIE) Jan 14, 2015
Income inequality in the United States has increased in recent decades to levels exceeding those in comparable large advanced economies-and even more so in traditionally more equal smaller European economies. Moreover, many studies have found that among advanced economies, paying higher wages to low-wage workers reduces inequality and increases economic growth.

The Long Growth Drag From Financial Market Tinkering
William G. De Leon (PIMCO) Jan 14, 2015
Central bankers and regulators have greatly underestimated the negative impact their actions may have on the economic “multiplier.”

Seizing Credit Opportunities When Oil Prices Are Sliding
Mark R. Kiesel and David E. Linton (PIMCO) Jan 14, 2015
We believe we are moving into an extended period of lower oil prices, and we are actively managing our clients' energy exposure with an eye toward benefiting from recent events. Differentiation between the winners and losers across countries, sectors and individual companies is essential. We currently favor subsectors and companies with strong asset quality, high barriers to entry, solid production profiles and strong balance sheets and liquidity profiles.

For China, Even Good Numbers Don't Add Up
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Jan 14, 2015
Despite booming exports, the mainland can't grow its way out of its debt problems.

Inflation Doesn't Hurt So Much, Does It?
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Jan 14, 2015
A little more inflation might do the U.S. economy some good.

A New Ceiling for Oil Prices
Anatole Kaletsky (Project Syndicate) Jan 14, 2015
Most analysts still view $50 as a floor for the price of oil – or even a springboard. But, though the futures market suggests expectations of a fairly quick rebound to $70 or $80, economics and history suggest that today’s price should be viewed as a probable ceiling for a much lower trading range.

Bracing for Stagnation
Raghuram Rajan (Project Syndicate) Jan 14, 2015
As 2015 begins, the global economy remains weak. With few signs that this year will bring any improvement, policymakers would be wise to understand the factors underlying the global economy’s anemic performance and the implications of continued feebleness.

From Welfare State to Innovation State
Dani Rodrik (Project Syndicate) Jan 14, 2015
When the new industrial working class began to organize, governments defused the threat of revolution from below by expanding political and social rights, regulating markets, erecting a welfare state, and smoothing the ups and downs of the macroeconomy. Today’s technological revolutions call for a similarly comprehensive reinvention.

The Digital Road From Poverty
Bjørn Lomborg (Project Syndicate) Jan 14, 2015
With the Internet such an important resource in the modern world, broadband has become a vital technology, promising to boost economic growth, lift people out of poverty, and improve their health, nutrition, and education. When governments finalize the next global development targets, broadband access deserves to be among them.

The Russian Threat Runs Out of Fuel
Daniel Gros (Project Syndicate) Jan 14, 2015
For Europe, the defining event of 2014 was Russia’s annexation of Crimea and military intervention in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region, which directly challenged Europe's renunciation of the use of force to alter national borders. But Russia is no longer in any position to sustain its aggressive foreign policy.

China Pledges $35 Billion to Latin America
Juan de Onis (WA) Jan 14, 2015
Beijing has pledged $35 billion to Latin America as part of an ambitious effort—on the scale of the Marshall Plan—that gives China a major role in Latin America’s regional development.

Shale oil and gasoline prices
Lutz Kilian (VoxEU) Jan 14, 2015
The recent expansion of US shale oil production has captured the imagination of policymakers and industry analysts. It has fuelled visions of the US becoming independent of oil imports, of cheap US gasoline, of a rebirth of US manufacturing, and of net oil exports improving the US current account. This column asks how plausible these visions are, and examines the evidence to date.

ECB will watch Greece as it launches QE
Ralph Atkins (FT) Jan 15, 2015
Political factors are important for markets when anticipating ECB actions.

"Fast Track," TPP Debate Set to Ramp Up as New US Congress Takes Office
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 1 Jan 15, 2015
The long-stalled debate over whether to renew "fast track" trade powers is set to gear up again after members of the 114th US Congress took office in Washington last week, with incoming congressional leaders in both chambers flagging the legislation as a priority item for the coming months.

EU Commission Publishes Results of TTIP Public Consultation on ISDS, Investment Protections
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 1 Jan 15, 2015
The European Commission released on Tuesday the long-awaited results of its public consultation on investment protections in the EU-US trade talks, noting "huge scepticism" regarding investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) and pledging to hold additional consultations in the coming months before deciding on any policy proposals.

Chinese Government Abolishes Rare Earth Export Quotas
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 1 Jan 15, 2015
China has done away with its strict export quotas on 17 rare earths elements as well as tungsten and molybdenum, the country's state media reported early in the new year, following a WTO ruling last August that such restrictions were largely inconsistent with the body’s trade rules.

Finance can cope with cheap oil
Gillian Tett (FT) Jan 15, 2015
If companies default the effects will ripple through the system — but they will not make waves.

A jolt from the Swiss National Bank
George Magnus (FT) Jan 15, 2015
With the shock abandonment of the currency peg, history is repeating itself.

A momentous decision from the SNB
Mohamed El-Erian (FT) Jan 15, 2015
Central banks are struggling to quell market volatility.

Dramatic response to Swiss franc move
Izabella Kaminska (FT) Jan 15, 2015
Currency’s spike raises questions about market pressure on the Swiss National Bank.

ECB will watch Greece as it launches QE
Ralph Atkins (FT) Jan 15, 2015
Political factors are important when anticipating ECB actions.

Francs, Fear and Folly
Paul Krugman (NYT) Jan 15, 2015
Switzerland shows us how hard it is to fight the deflationary vortex that’s dragging down the world economy.

How Spending Sapped the Global Recovery
Ruchir Sharma (WSJ) Jan 15, 2015
The Obama-Lew lobby is urging Europe to ramp up stimulus spending. Emerging markets would beg to differ.

The Cheap-Oil Reform Moment
WSJ Jan 15, 2015
Ending fuel subsidies is progress, but India and Indonesia need far more.

Shocked by the Swiss Franc? Blame Europe
Bloomberg View Jan 15, 2015
Switzerland's travails stem from European leaders' failure to fix the euro-area economy.

The End of OPEC as We Know It
George L. Perry (Brookings) Jan 15, 2015
Saudia Arabia has made it clear that they want the U.S. and others to cut production of oil to support the world oil price before they do any cutting of their own. This ends the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries as we know it, and will keep the global oil market chaotic for some time.

Globalizing Sustainable Development
Manish Bapna and Kitty van der Heijden (Project Syndicate) Jan 15, 2015
After two years spent defining the post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals, the focus in the next 12 months must be on how to achieve them. Three ingredients will be essential to set the world on a more sustainable path that will eradicate poverty and enhance prosperity for all: financing mechanisms, trade, and partnerships.

Preparing for the Unknown Unknowns
Lucy P. Marcus (Project Syndicate) Jan 15, 2015
In perilous times, when the emergence, timing, and diffusion of risks can have a paralyzing effect, what matters is not simply what we accomplish, but how we accomplish it. And what matters most is how much stronger, more capable, and more resilient we help our colleagues, partners, children, and fellow citizens to become.

Global carbon taxation
Armon Rezai and Rick van der Ploeg (VoxEU) Jan 15, 2015
The failure of markets to price carbon emissions appropriately leads to excessive fuel use and induces global warming. This column suggests a new, back-of-the-envelope rule for calculating the global carbon price. The authors find that fighting global warming requires a price of around $15 per ton of emitted CO2, or $0.13 per gallon of gasoline. The rule also highlights the importance of economic indicators, such as GDP, for climate policy.

Temporary protection and technology adoption: Evidence from the Napoleonic blockade
Reka Juhasz (VoxEU) Jan 15, 2015
The effect of trade protection of infant industries in developing countries on their long-term growth has been widely debated. This column provides evidence on this topic using a novel dataset from the Napoleonic blockade against British trade. The author analyses the effect of this temporary trade protection on the cotton spinning as an infant industry, employing within-country variation in the trade protection. In the short run, better protected regions increased their production capacity in the infant industry. There is a persistence of this productivity in the long run as well.

Quantitative easing in the Eurozone: It's possible without fiscal transfers
Paul De Grauwe and Yuemei Ji (VoxEU) Jan 15, 2015
The ECB has been struggling to implement a programme of quantitative easing (QE) that would successfully target deflation. The main difficulty is political, stemming from opposition from German institutions. Their argument against is that a government bond buying programme by the ECB would mix fiscal and monetary policy. This column argues the opposite – such a programme can be structured so that it does not mix fiscal and monetary policy. It, therefore, would not impose a risk on German taxpayers.

Fixing Fragile Cities
Robert Muggah (FA) Jan 15, 2015
Solutions for urban violence and poverty.

The Eurasian Illusion
Anton Barbashin (FA) Jan 15, 2015
The myth of Russia's economic union.

The Swiss Just Made Japan's Job Harder
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Jan 16, 2015
Japan's central bank is struggling to convince consumers that good times are ahead. Switzerland's currency surprise isn't helping.

Where's the Cheap Oil Dividend?
Mark Whitehouse (Bloomberg View) Jan 16, 2015
Consumers don't yet appear to be taking their cheap-oil "tax break" to the mall.

Too Late, Too Little From India's Rajan
Dhiraj Nayyar (Bloomberg View) Jan 16, 2015
Indian corporations and consumers need a much bigger incentive before spending again.

Swiss Turmoil Hints at Future Lehman Moments
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Jan 16, 2015
The scale of the damage in the aftermath of Switzerland's currency shift is a reminder that contagion is always unpredictable and markets always overshoot.

Switzerland Switches Fronts in the Currency War
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Jan 16, 2015
Maybe Switzerland is just more interested in exporting to the U.S. than to Europe.

Get Ready For Life Without Oil
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Jan 16, 2015
The developed world will probably kick its dependence on oil in the next two decades.

A Square Peg in a Round Euro
Megan McArdle (Bloomberg View) Jan 16, 2015
The problem with currency pegs is that they're hard to maintain and also hard to let go of without ... well, a lot of financial chaos.

Two Cheers for the Swiss National Bank
Edwin M. Truman (PIIE) Jan 16, 2015
The financial world is hyperventilating over the Swiss National Bank's surprise announcement that it is abandoning its policy of pegging the Swiss franc to the depreciating euro. Two cheers for Thomas Jordan and the Swiss National Bank (SNB). It was the right policy move and it reminded financial markets that the job of central banks is not always to spread foam on the runway of global finance and save investors from themselves. The SNB does not deserve a third cheer for its policy move because it was reversing a policy that was wrong when it was adopted in 2011 in an effort to keep the Swiss franc from appreciating against the euro, to the detriment of its export-dependent economy.

The risk of deflation in 2015
John Aziz (Pieria) Jan 16, 2015
The risk of entering the deflationary trap — as Japan did — is now clearer than ever.

The Swiss National Bank’s Unpleasant Experience of Sleeping Next to an Elephant
Sachin Gupta & Thomas Kressin (PIMCO) Jan 16, 2015
On 15 January 2015, the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) unexpectedly exited its minimum exchange rate regime, which it had adopted back in September 2011 when it was fighting sharp appreciation of the Swiss franc in the midst of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis.

The Year of Resilience
Margareta Wahlström (Project Syndicate) Jan 16, 2015
Ten years ago this month, representatives from 168 United Nations member states met in Kobe, the capital of Japan’s Hyogo Prefecture, to decide how to respond to the devastating Indian Ocean tsunami, which claimed more than 227,000 lives. Now it is time for world leaders to strengthen measures aimed at mitigating disaster risk.

The servicification of manufacturing and trade policy
Magnus Lodefalk (VoxEU) Jan 16, 2015
The manufacturing sector in OECD countries increasingly buys, produces, sells and exports services. This is now known as the servicification of manufacturing. This column, using firm-level data from Sweden, shows that as firms’ share of in-house services increases, so does their export intensity. The increasing complementarities between services and trade in goods thus imply that the different trade policies for goods and services are an antiquated divide.

Chaos in the Currency Markets Might Be Good News
John Cassidy (New Yorker) Jan 16, 2015
With the euro-zone economy chronically depressed, and the U.S. economy expanding, a substantial devaluation of the euro is precisely what is needed.

Oil Export Myths
WSJ Jan 17, 2015
Lifting the ban will increase U.S. supply and energy security.

Blood on the Forex Floor
WSJ Jan 17, 2015
The Swiss currency shock leaves losses everywhere.

Making Sense of the Swiss Shock
Markus Brunnermeier and Harold James (Project Syndicate) Jan 17, 2015
For years, policymakers have been wondering whether the exit of a small, fiscally weak country like Greece could undermine the euro. Now, policymakers will have to deal with even bigger risks, stemming from the exit of a small, fiscally strong country that is not even a member of the European Union.

Switzerland Frees the Swiss Franc
Frank Hollenbeck (Mises Daily) Jan 17, 2015
You can fix your currency or you run independent monetary policy. But you cannot do both at the same time.

The macro impact of short-termism
Stephen J. Terry (VoxEU) Jan 17, 2015
For over a century, economists have expressed concerns with short-termism. In particular, long-term growth and investment could be sacrificed for the sake of short-term profit targets. This column examines short-termism using US firm level data on R&D and earnings targets. The author develops a macroeconomic model of long-term growth with short-term manager incentives. Managers appear to manipulate R&D to meet profit targets. The theoretical analysis suggests that such short-termism leads to 1% lower firm value together with around 0.1% lower long-term growth for the economy each year.

The welfare state and migration: Coalition-formation dynamics
Assaf Razin, Efraim Sadka and Benjarong Suwankiri (VoxEU) Jan 17, 2015
Allowing greater immigration may raise tax revenue and help pay for the welfare state, but it also affects the future composition of the voting population. This column discusses a political-economy model in which the largest group in a winning coalition chooses tax and immigration policies, and explains how the composition of the voting population changes over time.

Effective Eurozone QE: Size matters more than risk-sharing
Francesco Giavazzi and Guido Tabellini (VoxEU) Jan 17, 2015
The ECB may soon launch QE. Two of Europe’s leading macroeconomists argue that QE is the ECB’s last anti-deflation tool – it must not be sacrificed to political expediency. The risk-sharing debate is secondary to the programme’s size and duration – one example would be €60 billion per month for one year, or until inflation expectations rose to near 2%. The ECB should also explain that no matter how well the monetary part of the programme is designed, an accompanying fiscal expansion is critical to QE’s effectiveness.

Wealth inequality entices talent into finance
Kirill Shakhnov (VoxEU) Jan 17, 2015
The rapid growth of the US financial sector has driven policy debate on whether it is socially desirable. This column examines the trade-off between finance and entrepreneurship, and links the growth of finance to rising wealth inequality. Although financial intermediation helps allocate capital efficiently, people choosing a career in finance do not internalise the negative effect on the pool of talented entrepreneurs. This mechanism can explain the simultaneous growth of wealth inequality and finance in the US, and why more unequal countries have larger financial sectors.

Morning again for the middle classes
Lawrence Summers (FT) Jan 18, 2015
There is little hope for integration and co-operation if it is seen as benefiting a global elite.

Why ECB should not dilute a QE programme
Wolfgang Munchau (FT) Jan 18, 2015
My plea would be to start with a big figure now. Size matters.

The eurozone: A strained bond
Claire Jones and Stefan Wagstyl (FT) Jan 18, 2015
The ECB’s debate with Germany threatens to lessen the impact of the expected asset-buying plan.

The Truth about Currency Manipulation: Congress and the Trans-Pacific Partnership
C. Fred Bergsten (PIIE) Jan 18, 2015
Bipartisan majorities of both houses of Congress insist that the TPP forcefully address the manipulation of exchange rates. At the same time, many believe that a US effort to raise currency concerns would torpedo the agreement. There is a way to resolve this dilemma, but it will require new initiatives by the Obama administration, Congress, and TPP partner countries.

Explaining the global trade slowdown
Cristina Constantinescu, Aaditya Mattoo and Michele Ruta (VoxEU) Jan 18, 2015
Not only is world trade lower than its pre-Crisis level, but it is also growing slower than GDP. This column examines the relationship between trade and GDP in the last four decades. The findings indicate that roughly half of the slowdown is driven by structural rather than cyclical factors. Trade itself has become less responsive to GDP in recent years. In particular, supply chains are maturing after years of rapid expansion.

What the Swiss FX shock says about risk models
Jon Danielsson (VoxEU) Jan 18, 2015
The Swiss central bank last week abandoned its euro exchange rate ceiling. This column argues that the fallout from the decision demonstrates the inherent weaknesses of the regulator-approved standard risk models used in financial institutions. These models under-forecast risk before the announcement and over-forecast risk after the announcement, getting it wrong in all states of the world.

Monetary stimulus to avert apocalypse
Manny Roman (FT) Jan 19, 2015
The ECB is about to embark on a programme of asset purchases.

Politics pivotal as oil prices plunge
Michael Levi (FT) Jan 19, 2015
Blind focus on markets just as risky as manipulation and collusion.

Who will be QE winners and losers?
Martin Arnold (FT) Jan 19, 2015
Fortunes of region’s leading banks still firmly in the hands of central bankers.

Are central banks a destabilising force?
Axel Merk (FT) Jan 19, 2015
Swiss example shows how imbalances can correct violently.

ECB: Pushing Europe over the Edge
Daniel Stelter (Globalist) Jan 19, 2015
Despite all the advertising, launching QE in Europe may well be counterproductive.

Can Corruption Be Eradicated?
Patrick Radden Keefe (New Yorker) Jan 19, 2015
Why it happened in Singapore—and won’t in Afghanistan.

China’s Economy Expands at Slowest Rate in Quarter-Century
Alexandra Stevenson (NYT) Jan 19, 2015
The country’s gross domestic product grew by 7.4 percent in 2014, adding to fears of a broader economic slowdown.

The Global War on Modernity
Garry Kasparov (WSJ) Jan 19, 2015
Islamists set the time machine to the Dark Ages. Putin dreams of czarist Russia. A common enemy: America.

Denmark Should Cut Loose From Euro
Guan Yang (Bloomberg View) Jan 19, 2015
Maintaining the krone's peg to the euro is an act of faith in Denmark. The central bank should rethink its commitment.

Not Even Mario Draghi Can Save Europe Now
Bloomberg View Jan 19, 2015
Long before now, Mario Draghi should have put his job on the line to save the European economy.

The Greek Time Bomb
Yannos Papantoniou (Project Syndicate) Jan 19, 2015
Much is at stake in Greece’s upcoming general election. If the likely winner, the far-left Syriza party, insists on implementing its unsustainable spending program, rather than focusing on debt relief, the result could be disastrous for Greece and the eurozone.

The Right Choices for 2015
Christine Lagarde (Project Syndicate) Jan 19, 2015
Policymakers around the world should be contemplating three fundamental choices: to strive for economic growth or accept stagnation; to work to improve stability or risk succumbing to fragility; and to cooperate or go it alone. The stakes could not be higher: 2015 promises to be a make-or-break year for the global economy.

A “Merkel Plan” for Europe
Bill Emmott (Project Syndicate) Jan 19, 2015
It is becoming possible, in political terms, to say that Europe's debtors have taken their punishment and have made their economies more competitive. What is now holding back these and other European economies is weak demand in the eurozone as a whole, which is why a modern version of the Marshall Plan is needed.

End of the Swiss franc’s one-sided exchange rate band
Charles Wyplosz (VoxEU) Jan 19, 2015
Ending the Swiss franc-euro peg created market turmoil and much vitriol among pundits. This column argues the that SNB could and should have waited – riding along with the euro’s depreciation until Swiss deflation disappeared, but the decision to end the one-sided peg was not a mistake. The peg was always meant as a temporary measure that had to be lifted one day.

Bolder steps from Europe’s banks
Martin Wolf (FT) Jan 20, 2015
The ECB’s QE programme must now happen — the eurozone economy is at stake.

Venezuela collapse owes debt to China
Ricardo Hausmann (FT) Jan 20, 2015
We know neither the terms of the Beijing loans nor the uses of the money.

Gold rally due as central banks add risk
John Plender (FT) Jan 20, 2015
Incompetence and monetary dysfunction make gold look attractive.

Politics pivotal as oil prices plunge
Michael Levi (FT) Jan 20, 2015
Blind focus on markets just as risky as manipulation and collusion.

Monetary stimulus to avert apocalypse
Manny Roman (FT) Jan 20, 2015
The ECB is about to embark on a programme of asset purchases.

Can Capitalists Save Capitalism?
Thomas B. Edsall (NYT) Jan 20, 2015
In his State of the Union address, President Obama demonstrated the influence of the Democratic Party's turn toward a more 'inclusive capitalism.'

Global Growth Revised Down, Despite Cheaper Oil, Faster U.S. Growth
IMF Survey Jan 20, 2015
Global growth forecast at 3.5 percent for 2015, revised down by 0.3 percent. Net benefit of plunge in oil prices more than offset by adverse factors. Risks to global growth more balanced thanks to upside risks of lower oil prices.

The ECB's Coming New Stance on QE
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE) Jan 20, 2015
For months I have argued that the European Central Bank (ECB) is not likely to move quickly toward new monetary stimulus, including the purchase of sovereign bonds. I have now shifted my expectations. I believe that at its next meeting, the ECB will likely commence a broad based asset purchase program, including euro area sovereign bonds. These thoughts are offered in the spirit of John Maynard Keynes's famous answer to a critic asking why he changed his mind about monetary policy. "When my information changes, I alter my conclusions," the great economist said. "What do you do, sir?"

A Better Alternative to QE for Europe
Daniel Stelter (Globalist) Jan 20, 2015
Ben Bernanke's helicopter drop: Money for citizens, not banksters.

Good News in China's Bad GDP Numbers
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Jan 20, 2015
China just posted the slowest growth in more than two decades. Good thing, too.

The Politics of Economic Stupidity
Joseph E. Stiglitz (Project Syndicate) Jan 20, 2015
In 2014, the world economy remained stuck in the same rut that it has been in since emerging from the 2008 global financial crisis. But we know how to escape our current malaise, which suggests that the big problem facing the world in 2015 is political, not economic.

Still No Exit for Greece
Kemal Dervis (Project Syndicate) Jan 20, 2015
Greece's next government is likely to be led by the left-wing Syriza party, which plans to reject austerity and demand significant debt reduction. But the next government and its European creditors need to compromise, with Greece pursuing growth-promoting structural reforms in exchange for the fiscal space needed to allow the reforms to work.

The New Normal in China’s Cities
Andrew Sheng and Xiao Geng (Project Syndicate) Jan 20, 2015
Decades of rapid urbanization in China created clusters of knowledge, manufacturing, and distribution in areas that benefited from well-established links to the global economy. Now, China is shifting toward a "new normal" – one in which cities will play an even greater role.

New Life in Old Age
Joseph Jimenez (Project Syndicate) Jan 20, 2015
With populations worldwide aging fast, new challenges are arising not only for health-care systems, but also for economies, government policies, and, of course, families. Health-care companies – in cooperation with governments, insurance companies, and other stakeholders – must play a central role in addressing them.

Half-a-Loaf Growth
Michael Spence (Project Syndicate) Jan 20, 2015
At a time of lackluster economic growth, countries around the world are attempting to devise and implement strategies to spur and sustain recovery. The key word is strategy: to succeed, policymakers must ensure that measures are implemented in reasonably complete packages.

R&D tax incentives: New evidence on trends and effectiveness
Elina Gaillard and Bas Straathof (VoxEU) Jan 20, 2015
Tax incentives have become a common policy tool for encouraging firms to spend more on research and development – and the recession has further raised interest in the effectiveness of this policy. This column highlights a new review of the empirical evidence, which suggests that fiscal incentives for R&D only modestly stimulate R&D, while their impact on innovation and economic growth is uncertain.

How to solve the bond liquidity problem
Gene Frieda (FT) Jan 21, 2015
Regulatory change means solutions lie in asset management sector.

Can the U.S. Economy Keep Its Balance?
Jim O'Neill (Bloomberg View) Jan 21, 2015
A restructured U.S. economy has emerged since 2008. Don't take the gains for granted.

Will Hong Kong's Peg Be the Next to Fall?
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Jan 21, 2015
It's time for a debate at least about scrapping the link to the U.S. dollar.

Will Deflation Make You Naked, Homeless and Hungry?
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Jan 21, 2015
Economic orthodoxy says deflation can leave us naked, homeless and hungry. Not everyone is convinced.

Don't Restart Europe's Wars of Religion
Pankaj Mishra (Bloomberg View) Jan 21, 2015
The continent can't afford a clash of civilizations.

Watch Europe Fumble QE
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Jan 21, 2015
The European version of QE is an ineffective but necessary exercise: when it fails, policymakers may consider more difficult options such as structural reform.

America’s Global Balancing Act
Zbigniew Brzezinski (Project Syndicate) Jan 21, 2015
The redistribution of global power has produced a situation in which the US is no longer the sole hegemon. The US has to acknowledge the fact that the world is now much more complex, and that, though it must understand the national interests of key players, it cannot allow itself to identify completely with any of them.

Emperor Xi’s Dilemma
Chris Patten (Project Syndicate) Jan 21, 2015
China has increasingly sought to project the success of its markets-and-mandarins development model. But, as China’s economy slows this year, President Xi Jinping is likely to discover that there really is a link between a society’s openness and the sustainability of its economic success.

Aid for Peace
Eli Berman, Joseph H. Felter and Jacob N. Shapiro (FA) Jan 21, 2015
Does money buy hearts and minds?

The Great Ratings Game
David James Gill and Michael John Gill (FA) Jan 21, 2015
How countries become creditworthy.

South Africa's 99 Percent
Jessica Pothering (Boston Review) Jan 21, 2015
Twenty years after apartheid, economic inequality in South Africa has intensified: in 2012, white South Africans earned 7.6 times more than black South Africans--up from 6.9 times in 1996.

Draghi’s promise to do whatever it takes
Martin Wolf (FT) Jan 22, 2015
Nobody knows whether ECB’s QE will work but it is a start at least.

Use markets to stop the next Ebola crisis
Gillian Tett (FT) Jan 22, 2015
Use markets to stop the next Ebola crisis ‘Pandemic bonds’ could inject private-sector rigour into global medical bureaucracies.

Super Mario strikes again
Martin Sandbu (FT) Jan 22, 2015
The ECB again breaks free of the constraints of eurozone politics.

Draghi does enough for now
Stephanie Flanders (FT) Jan 22, 2015
Getting inflation expectations higher is not going to be easy.

ECB can only buy time for Europe
Mohamed El-Erian (FT) Jan 22, 2015
Central bank pursues macroeconomic objectives with imperfect tools.

Monetary union is political union
Stephen King (FT) Jan 22, 2015
The biggest problem is one Draghi can do nothing about.

ECB action likely to stoke currency wars
Ralph Atkins (FT) Jan 22, 2015
Central bank is using an important reserve currency as a policy weapon.

Africa’s Economy Is Rising. Now What Happens to Its Food?
David Leonhardt (NYT) Jan 22, 2015
A continent that has long struggled economically is at last poised to make real progress, but it now faces crucial questions, many involving food.

Stimulus for Eurozone, but It May Be Too Little or Too Late
Neil Irwin (NYT) Jan 22, 2015
The big question is whether the flood of new money will jolt Europe out its economic doldrums or merely create a short-term lift to financial markets.

Much Too Responsible
Paul Krugman (NYT) Jan 22, 2015
Why is the United States experiencing a solid recovery while Europe is sinking ever deeper into deflationary quicksand?

Greece’s Fatal Mistake, and Europe’s
Joseph C. Sternberg (WSJ) Jan 22, 2015
Voters could pull the plug on efforts to reconcile the eurozone’s need for growth with its inability to reform.

Global growth anxiety at the World Economic Forum
David Ignatius (WP) Jan 22, 2015
Experts at the World Economic Forum worry that Europe and Japan will drain other nations.

Obama Makes Call for "Fast Track" Trade Powers in Annual Address
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 2 Jan 22, 2015
US President Barack Obama publicly urged lawmakers on Tuesday to grant him Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), in a speech that focused largely on the resurgent American economy and the need to remain competitive, particularly through expanding opportunities for the middle class.

Agriculture Ministers: Sustainable Production Needed to Tackle Hunger
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 2 Jan 22, 2015
A communiqué approved by agriculture ministers and officials from over 60 countries has declared that sustainable production is key to tackling hunger and malnutrition, while largely skirting controversies around trade affecting supply and demand for food, farm goods, and forestry.

WTO Appellate Body Rules Against Argentina in Import Restrictions Dispute
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 2 Jan 22, 2015
Argentina's controversial import restrictions were dealt a resounding blow last week, after the WTO's highest court confirmed late on Thursday that these policies are in violation of global trade rules – upholding all of the main findings issues by a previous dispute panel in August.

Officials: Australia, India Pushing to Clinch Trade Deal in 2015
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 2 Jan 22, 2015
Australian Trade and Investment Minster Andrew Robb confirmed last week that Canberra and New Delhi are aiming to conclude their trade negotiations this year, noting on Friday that bilateral trade ties with India are currently "closer than ever."

How Long Will the Global Oil Glut Last?
Avinash Persaud (PIIE) Jan 22, 2015
The decline in oil prices to less than $50 per barrel should not be a surprise. The surprise is how long oil prices stayed above $100 per barrel when supply and demand fundamentals could no longer support such a price.

All You Ever Wanted to Know About Quantitative Easing
John Cassidy (New Yorker) Jan 22, 2015
Why a license to print money could save the euro zone.

Aid in a World of Crisis
António Guterres (Project Syndicate) Jan 22, 2015
Protracted wars, environmental disasters, and state failure are requiring the UNHCR and other relief agencies to broaden their base of support. Without a massive scaling up of private-sector involvement, the world will be unable to provide for millions of people who have lost almost everything.

Diseases Without Borders
Jim Yong Kim (Project Syndicate) Jan 22, 2015
The World Economic Forum's annual Global Risks report highlights important opportunities for action. One area in which concerted, collaborative efforts can make a huge difference is the spread of infectious diseases, especially through the establishment of a global pandemic emergency facility.

The Fall of the House of Samuelson
Robert Skidelsky (Project Syndicate) Jan 22, 2015
The Nobel laureate economist Paul Samuelson believed that because governments knew how to stop depressions, voters would insist that they use this knowledge. But he was only half right: Though governments do know how to stop a slide into another Great Depression, they are haunted by fears of large fiscal deficits.

The Coming Productivity Revolution
Dominic Barton (Project Syndicate) Jan 22, 2015
Despite nerve-wracking ups and downs, the last 50 years delivered an unprecedented global growth dividend. But if we pursue business as usual, the odds of making similarly impressive progress over the next 50 years are not very promising.

The ECB’s New Macroeconomic Realism
Jeffrey D. Sachs (Project Syndicate) Jan 22, 2015
The European Central Bank has finally crossed the Rubicon and launched a bold policy of quantitative easing, which may help arrest Europe’s slide into stagnation. Even if it is not an effective growth strategy, QE should be welcomed; indeed, the ECB should be encouraged to do everything in its power to ease monetary conditions.

A New Century’s New Technologies
Susan Hockfield (Project Syndicate) Jan 22, 2015
The technologies on which many of us depend today arose from a parallel convergence of discoveries in physics and engineering in the early twentieth century. The industries and economic drivers of the twenty-first century will arise from the increasingly combined efforts of biology and engineering.

Labor in the Age of Robots
Guy Ryder (Project Syndicate) Jan 22, 2015
Today, anxiety that new technologies could destroy millions of jobs is as high as ever – and rightly so. Adapting the labor market to a world of increasingly automated workplaces will be one of the defining challenges of our era.

Capital control effectiveness: Firm-level evidence from Brazil
Laura Alfaro, Anusha Chari and Fabio Kanczuk (VoxEU) Jan 22, 2015
Capital controls are back in fashion. This column discusses new firm-level evidence from Brazil showing that capital controls segment international financial markets, reduce external financing, and lower firm-level investment. They disproportionately affect small, non-exporting firms, especially those more dependent on external finance. This suggests that macro-finance models focusing on aggregate variables are missing an important dimension by abstracting from firm-level heterogeneity.

How Greek Default May Sill Unravel the EU
Frank Hollenbeck (Mises Daily) Jan 23, 2015
Greece is back in the headlines. This should be surprise no one. It was naïve to think that Greeks would accept being debt slaves forever.

Who Will Rule the Oil Market?
Daniel Yergin (NYT) Jan 23, 2015
Economic forces, not OPEC, now set prices.

Parsing Draghi's QE Gambit
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Jan 23, 2015
The outlook for markets and what needs to happen next.

America's Losing the Currency War
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Jan 23, 2015
Some Europeans see QE as a policy to drive down the euro. The U.S. should see it the same way.

Getting Industrial Policy Right
Luis Alberto Moreno (Project Syndicate) Jan 23, 2015
At a time of lackluster global economic growth, developing countries are dusting off some old strategies – particularly the use of industrial policy to drive the development of particular sectors and turn them into engines of growth and employment. But the history of such policies is filled with failure and cautionary tales.

The State of Global Poverty
Kaushik Basu (Project Syndicate) Jan 23, 2015
One reason global poverty has been so intractable is that it remains largely out of sight for those who are not living it, safely somebody else’s problem. If poverty were communicable, its incidence would be far lower by now.

The ECB’s QE decision
Marco Annunziata (VoxEU) Jan 23, 2015
The European Central Bank has just launched full-fledged quantitative easing. This column argues that the ECB’s watershed decision highlights both the strengths and the persistent vulnerabilities of the Eurozone. The limited-risk-sharing provision flags the need for greater fiscal union; and governments should use the respite that QE provides to launch much-needed structural reforms.

Europe’s proposed capital markets union
Jon Danielsson, Eva Micheler, Katja Neugebauer, Andreas Uthemann and Jean-Pierre Zigrand (VoxEU) Jan 23, 2015
The proposed EU capital markets union aims to revitalise Europe’s economy by creating efficient funding channels between providers of loanable funds and firms best placed to use them. This column argues that a successful union would deliver investment, innovation, and growth, but it depends on overcoming difficult regulatory challenges. A successful union would also change the nature of systemic risk in Europe.

China’s 21st century free trade zone
John Whalley and Daqing Yao (VoxEU) Jan 23, 2015
Since September 2013 China has been operating a new form of free trade zone based in a small area of Shanghai. This column describes the implied new trade and investment policies in detail and concludes that the new special zone is likely to be a first step towards a floating exchange rate, free capital account and independent monetary policy.

The Strong Dollar Is Always Good, Except When It Isn’t
Jeff Sommer (NYT) Jan 24, 2015
United States Treasury secretaries routinely say that they favor a strong dollar, regardless of circumstances or economic conditions. And the dollar is strong right now, thanks in no small part to actions by foreign central banks.

Economic Freedom Does Not Necessarily Lead to Greater Tolerance
Tyler Cowen (NYT) Jan 24, 2015
Open markets tend to lead to open minds, but not always, especially regarding race.

Private equity in Africa: Unblocking the pipes
Economist Jan 24, 2015
Africa needs a lot of capital. Private equity offers lessons on how to get it there

The battle between capital and labour
Yochai Benkler (FT) Jan 25, 2015
When misfortune strikes, workers are on their own.

Obama’s savvy bet on India’s rise
Edward Luce (FT) Jan 25, 2015
US adjustment to multipolar world will be shaped by whether it gets along with New Delhi.

QE is an imperfect compromise for eurozone
Wolfgang Munchau (FT) Jan 25, 2015
By protecting itself from losses, the ECB recognises the possibility of European sovereign default.

China: Monopoly position
Charles Clover (FT) Jan 25, 2015
Architect of Beijing’s antitrust laws says they are being used in a turf war between regulators.

Ending Greece's Nightmare
Paul Krugman (NYT) Jan 25, 2015
Now that Alexis Tsipras has won, and won big, European officials would be well advised to stop lecturing him on fiscal responsibility

Mr. Maduro in His Labyrinth
NYT Jan 25, 2015
As the price of oil tumbles, devastating Venezuela’s economy, the country’s leader becomes more erratic and despotic.

The Greek Warning
WSJ Jan 25, 2015
Radical parties rise when mainstream parties tolerate stagnation.

What Syriza's Sweep Means for Greece and Europe
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Jan 25, 2015
What you need to know about Greece before markets open.

China's Turn to Gouge Latin America
Mac Margolis (Bloomberg View) Jan 25, 2015
China isn't exactly Latin America's new best friend.

High-Frequency Traders Need a Speed Limit
Mark Buchanan (Bloomberg View) Jan 25, 2015
New research suggests that markets are running too fast for their own good.

The economy’s wild card
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Jan 25, 2015
Other nations’ troubles could slow U.S. growth.

EU cannot agree to write off Greek debt
Gideon Rachman (FT) Jan 26, 2015
The prospect of defaults would frighten the markets and increase the risk of another crisis Read more >>

Halve Greek debt to keep eurozone together
Reza Moghadam (FT) Jan 26, 2015
Any salvation new drachma might offer would be preceded by years of purgatory.

World Bank fails to credit intelligence of poor
Michael Holman (FT) Jan 26, 2015
Organisation’s bias in its perceptions of those in poverty has shaped flawed policy.

Dollar rally only just getting started
Russ Koesterich (FT) Jan 26, 2015
Diverging policy pushes currency higher but tepid growth will take toll.

Save the New Ukraine
Bernhard-Henri Levy and George Soros (NYT) Jan 26, 2015
The pro-European reformers desperately need financial aid to survive Russia's assault.

The rich get richer
Roberto Savio (AT) Jan 26, 2015
Since the beginning of the financial crisis in 2009, banks have paid a staggering US$178 billion in fines, yet no banker has been incriminated in a personal capacity. No less astonishing, in two years' time the richest 1% of the world's population will have a greater share of its wealth than the remaining 99%.

Is Foreign Ownership of Banks Problematic for Eastern Europe?
Simeon Djankov (PIIE) Jan 26, 2015
Last week's request by two Greek banks for a €5 billion emergency assistance from the European Central Bank rang alarm bells. Not just in Greece, where the economy has barely gotten off the ground after six consecutive years of falling GDP, but also across several Eastern European countries, where Greek banks have a significant share of assets.

How Oily Is Canada's Housing Bubble?
Megan McArdle (Bloomberg View) Jan 26, 2015
Canada's housing bubble is still defying the plunge in oil prices -- for now.

India's Swelling Stash of Dollars
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Jan 26, 2015
Growing currency reserves are good news for the economy.

Why Saudis Are Holding Strong on Oil
Meghan L. O'Sullivan (Bloomberg View) Jan 26, 2015
The new regime needs to first project strength. Then, change may come.

What Does Russia's Junk Rating Mean?
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Jan 26, 2015
A Q&A on Standard & Poor's decision to downgrade Russia's sovereign credit rating to junk.

Can China Avoid Deflation?
Yao Yang (Project Syndicate) Jan 26, 2015
In his speech at the 2015 World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang acknowledged that China’s economy is facing strong headwinds. Can Chinese leaders make good on Li's pledge to stabilize growth?

How France Will Reform
Manuel Valls (Project Syndicate) Jan 26, 2015
As globalization transforms the world economy, France must adapt in order to enable its businesses to compete abroad as well as at home. But reform does not mean giving in to external pressure, or giving up what makes France French.

China’s Reform Stalemate
Keyu Jin (Project Syndicate) Jan 26, 2015
China’s reform program has reached an impasse, with fundamental conflicts of interest and subtle resistance mechanisms blocking progress. Until these barriers to change are removed, there is little hope that China’s slowing economy can rely on reforms to give it the push it needs.

Starting South Korea’s New Growth Engines
Lee Jong-Wha (Project Syndicate) Jan 26, 2015
After a half-century of remarkable growth, South Korea's economy is struggling. But a new strategy that nurtures more diversified sources of growth, while reducing excessive reliance on exports and large enterprises, can reinvigorate and sustain long-term growth.

The Lemmings of QE
Stephen S. Roach (Project Syndicate) Jan 26, 2015
Predictably, the European Central Bank has joined the world’s other major monetary authorities in the greatest experiment in the history of central banking: large-scale quantitative easing. But careful analysis of QE's impact so far should give the ECB pause.

Lex in-depth: Glut feeling
Alan Livsey and Robert Armstrong (FT) Jan 27, 2015
The oil industry is struggling to cope with lower prices so what would happen if $50 per barrel became the new normal?

Greek debt and a default of statesmanship
Martin Wolf (FT) Jan 27, 2015
Creating the eurozone is its members’ second-worst monetary idea, a break-up the worst.

History can explain falling prices
John Kay (FT) Jan 27, 2015
A historical perspective may help to stem panic among investors.

Germany should recall its time in sick bay
Marcel Fratzscher (FT) Jan 27, 2015
Merkel’s challenge is to convince her people they have reliable partners.

Russian downgrade deepens crisis with EU
Sergei Guriev (FT) Jan 27, 2015
Country will run out of cash if oil prices do not rise and sanctions remain.

Easy money no cure for Japan’s stagnation
Henny Sender (FT) Jan 27, 2015
Export-led growth model no longer works as China gains edge.

Can Modi Copy Deng?
Sanjeev S. Ahluwalia (Globalist) Jan 27, 2015
India's leadership needs to change, modeling China may be the answer.

The New Drivers of Europe's Geopolitics
George Friedman (Stratfor) Jan 27, 2015
For the past two weeks, I have focused on the growing fragmentation of Europe.

European Union Tries Rebooting the Economy
Joergen Oerstroem Moeller (YaleGlobal) Jan 27, 2015
The EU doubles-down on debt – but with new strategies for job creation, sustainability and innovation

Germany Deserved Debt Relief, Greece Doesn't
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Jan 27, 2015
Syriza can't use Germany's 1953 debt restructuring as a precedent for its debt relief demand.

Emergency Education Now
Gordon Brown (Project Syndicate) Jan 27, 2015
The refugee crises in Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and Nigeria provide ample proof that a global humanitarian fund for education during emergencies is urgently needed. Passing the hat when a crisis erupts is not the solution.

Why Russia’s Economy Will Not Collapse
Charles Wyplosz (Project Syndicate) Jan 27, 2015
The rapid depreciation of the ruble, despite a dramatic – and seemingly desperate – late-night interest-rate hike by the central bank last month, has raised the specter of Russia’s economic meltdown in 1998. But, though Russia’s economy is undoubtedly in trouble, a full-blown collapse is unlikely.

Europe’s Jihadi Generation
Javier Solana (Project Syndicate) Jan 27, 2015
In the wake of the attack on Charlie Hebdo in Paris and the thwarting of an attack in Belgium, Europe needs to understand why second- and third-generation immigrants are susceptible to the blandishments of terrorist organizations. The reason is simple: European citizenship has not translated into social and economic inclusion.

Fanatics, Charlatans, and Economists
Jean-Marie Guéhenno (Project Syndicate) Jan 27, 2015
Throughout the world, economics has been placed on a pedestal and enshrined in politically independent institutions like central banks and competition authorities, leaving politics confined to tinkering at the margins of market allocations. The results have been disastrous.

Global Equities 2015: Fasten Your Seat Belt for a Multi-Speed World
Virginie Maisonneuve and Mark Richards (PIMCO) Jan 27, 2015
The global equity outlook for the coming year.

Tricks of the mind turned oil into gold
Mikhail Fridman (FT) Jan 28, 2015
Price remained high because people perceived there was a shortage.

Beware Hungary’s Swiss loans hangover cure
Neil Buckley (FT) Jan 28, 2015
Neighbours should think twice before following Budapest’s conversion of foreign currency mortgages.

Uncertainty on oil unsettles investors
Richard Madigan (FT) Jan 28, 2015
Lower bond yields add to concerns that global growth may be stalling.

Bonds: Caught in a debt trap
Ralph Atkins and Michael MacKenzie (FT) Jan 28, 2015
The markets’ verdict on central bank policies is that they are failing on inflation and growth.

Germany needs to learn from its fiscal history
Harold Meyerson (WP) Jan 28, 2015
In its dealings with Greece, Berlin shows it has forgotten the fiscal lessons of its postwar past.

The collapse of Europe?
John Feffer (AT) Jan 28, 2015
Between 1989 and 2014, Europe quietly became more prosperous and more of a player in international affairs (while lacking the muscle to play global policeman). It rose to third in population behind China and India and is the world's largest trading power. Yet now the European project is teetering on the edge of failure.

The What and the Why in Fed's Next Moves
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Jan 28, 2015
Global conditions will force the Fed to push any major policy signaling to the next FOMC meeting, in mid-March.

Why Europe Will Cave to Greece
Clive Crook (Bloomberg View) Jan 28, 2015
Greece and the EU need to drop their ridiculous all-or-nothing positioning and get on with negotiating sensible debt relief.

Greece Puts Mind Over Money
Justin Fox (Bloomberg View) Jan 28, 2015
Greece's new finance minister Yanis Varoufakis is an interesting thinker, but interesting thinkers don't always make the best politicians.

China and India: Who Will Win the Growth Competition?
Paolo Mauro and Jan Zilinsky (PIIE) Jan 28, 2015
India's economic promise is at the forefront of public interest, with President Obama's visit a few days ago. Will India's economy finally grow faster than China's?

Sex, Oil, and the Ruble
Simeon Djankov (PIIE) Jan 28, 2015
In the last few weeks, a start-up called Russian Zen has become the most visited internet site in Moscow. No, it isn't a spiritual site. Quite the contrary. On a background of sparsely-clad women and soothing tantric music, three numbers flash on the screen: the real-time ruble to dollar exchange rate, the ruble to euro exchange rate, and the price of oil per barrel.

Commodity Outlook 2015: Watching the Supply Response Across Markets
Nicholas J. Johnson, Greg E. Sharenow (PIMCO) Jan 28, 2015
Today's low oil prices should allow for supply and demand to come back into alignment by year-end, led by a decline in the U.S. output growth rate and a modest increase in global demand. We expect continued oversupply to weigh on natural gas prices this year, but some semblance of balance may return to this market in 2016. Grain prices may experience pressure in 2015 as low oil prices pass through to corn prices, which may cause producers to switch to higher-priced crops. With production growth likely having peaked, we expect metals prices to stabilize this year.

Modi's India: A Reality Check
Stephan Richter (Globalist) Jan 28, 2015
A double take on economic planning and dynamism in India.

How Poor Is Poor?
Vauhini Vara (New Yorker) Jan 28, 2015
The global wealth gap is real, and worse than we think.

China Hops on a 'Treadmill to Hell'
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Jan 28, 2015
Is Beijing digging a deeper hole for itself?

What Failed in 2008?
J. Bradford DeLong (Project Syndicate) Jan 28, 2015
To solve a problem requires not only knowing what to do, but also a willingness to change course if it turns out that one did not know quite as much as one thought. But the only true lesson of the 2008 financial crisis seems to be that its lessons will never truly be learned.

The Eurozone Needs More than QE
Martin Feldstein (Project Syndicate) Jan 28, 2015
Although the European Central Bank has launched a larger-than-expected program of quantitative easing, even its advocates fear that it may not be enough to boost real incomes, reduce unemployment, and lower governments’ debt-to-GDP ratios. They are right to be afraid.

Three Global Health Threats
Jaime Sepulveda (Project Syndicate) Jan 28, 2015
The Ebola outbreak in West Africa has underscored the need to strengthen health systems at both the national and global level. But, though Ebola has focused the world’s attention on systemic shortcomings, the goal must be to combat abiding epidemics that are inflicting suffering and death on populations worldwide.

This Is The Major Global Economic Challenge Of Our Time (And We Have No Idea How To Deal With It)
Ana Swanson (Forbes) Jan 28, 2015
Imbalances in the global flows of trade and capital* were at the heart of most major economic crises in recent years.

Drivers of cross-border banking since the Global Crisis
Franziska Bremus and Marcel Fratzscher (VoxEU) Jan 28, 2015
In the aftermath of the Global Crisis, international banking is undergoing structural adjustments. This column investigates the role of policy-related drivers of changes in cross-border bank lending since the Crisis. The findings indicate that changes in regulatory policies are important push and pull factors of foreign credit. The empirical evidence further suggests that expansionary monetary policy has helped alleviate credit market fragmentation to some extent.

Falling oil prices prompt central bankers to reconsider
Ferdinando Giugliano (FT) Jan 29, 2015
World Bank expects global inflation to fall 0.4-0.9 percentage points this year.

The stand-off that may sink the euro
Philip Stephens (FT) Jan 29, 2015
Sensible policy makers should see Syriza’s election success as a wake-up call not a nightmare.

China: Overborrowed and overbuilt
Jamil Anderlini (FT) Jan 29, 2015
Its economy has become the world’s largest but a credit-fuelled construction binge threatens growth.

Narendra Modi’s Reform Push
WSJ Jan 29, 2015
India’s leader takes some risks to clear obstacles to growth.

Davos: Trade Ministers Call for Credible, Realistic Path to Finish Doha Round
Bridges Volume 19, Number 3 Jan 29, 2015
Trade ministers from 21 WTO members called on Saturday for negotiators to instil a sense of urgency in their efforts to elaborate a work programme by July, which would need to set out a "credible and realistic path" towards concluding the long-running Doha Round talks.

UN Member States Begin Post-2015 Development Agenda Negotiations
Bridges Volume 19, Number 3 Jan 29, 2015
A series of talks between UN member states geared towards agreeing on a post-2015 development agenda kicked off last week with a three-day session reviewing the preparatory efforts undertaken over the past two years. Delegates welcomed the work of a dedicated UN group to craft a list of proposed sustainable development goals (SDGs) to include in a new agenda.

How Fast Will China Grow?
Justin Yifu Lin (Project Syndicate) Jan 29, 2015
As China's unprecedented economic rise begins to slow, the country's future growth can be predicted by looking at its potential growth rate, as well as external and internal factors. Policymakers drawing up the country's next five-year plan should look to history as well as current conditions as guides in setting growth targets.

The Responsible Investor’s Guide to Climate Change
Jeffrey D. Sachs and Lisa Sachs (Project Syndicate) Jan 29, 2015
Around the world, institutional investors – including pension funds, insurance companies, philanthropic endowments, and universities – are grappling with the question of whether to divest from oil, gas, and coal companies. Divestment is indeed one answer, but so is active shareholder engagement.

Saving Global Order
Kofi A. Annan (Project Syndicate) Jan 29, 2015
Around the world, personal liberty, human rights, and democracy are at risk, while the international community is deeply divided, blocking progress on challenges ranging from the crises in Syria, Iraq, and Ukraine to climate change and trade. Three factors – all likely to persist this year – are driving these unsettling trends.

Bank portfolio choice and the macroeconomy
Yunus Aksoy and Henrique Basso (VoxEU) Jan 29, 2015
Banking activities have received increasing attention in the aftermath of the Crisis. This column focuses on the effects of bank portfolio choice on asset prices. The term spread is strongly influenced by banks’ expectations of their future profitability. Banks' funding activities, through the securitisation market, create conditions for higher leverage and may lead to a reduction in risk premia. Through its effects on asset prices, bank portfolio choice impacts the real economy, increasing its importance for policymaking.

Austerity vs. Democracy in Greece
Mark Blyth and Cornel Ban (FA) Jan 29, 2015
Europe crosses the Rubicon.

Don't Trade Away Our Health
Joseph E. Stiglitz (NYT) Jan 30, 2015
The efforts to raise drug prices in the so-called Trans-Pacific Partnership take us in the wrong direction.

Europe's Greek Test
Paul Krugman (NYT) Jan 30, 2015
Can Europe get past the myths and moralizing, and deal with reality in a way that respects the Continents core values?

China oil imports surge as prices fall
Michael Lelyveld (AT) Jan 30, 2015
China has been providing one of the few supports for the world oil markets amid declining prices, with imports surging 10% last year to a record, probably in a move to fill the country's strategic petroleum reserve.

A Path Forward for Greece
Angel Ubide (PIIE) Jan 30, 2015
The people of Greece have spoken, loud and clear, by delivering a resounding victory to Syriza, the left-wing party that won the election last weekend: After suffering five years of economic depression and a massive fiscal tightening (the level of government spending has been cut by 50 percent since 2009), the Greek people cannot stomach any further austerity and have voted for the party that promises change and a different economic policy. The Syriza victory has created a major new dilemma for all of Europe.

Levine on Wall Street: Rubles and Swaps
Matt Levine (Bloomberg View) Jan 30, 2015
Also, insurance against celebrity blunders. And a little more on Yahoo SpinCo because it's fun.

Devaluation Is Putin's Best Friend
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Jan 30, 2015
Russia's central bank lowered its key interest rate to 15 percent from 17 percent today in a move few predicted.

Dirty Money and Development
Sri Mulyani Indrawati (Project Syndicate) Jan 30, 2015
The world has made enormous progress in recent decades in the fight against poverty. But, as 2014 draws to a close, one billion people – one in seven – still live on less than $1.25 a day, in part because $1 trillion vanishes from the developing world’s economies every year.

Redistribution or Inclusion?
Ricardo Hausmann (Project Syndicate) Jan 30, 2015
Many people fear that profound and deepening income inequality is a global phenomenon with similar causes everywhere. But there are two sources of inequality – disparate productivity levels among firms and unequal distribution within them – and conflating them prevents clear thinking on either one.

A Greek Burial for German Austerity
Joschka Fischer (Project Syndicate) Jan 30, 2015
Even before the leftist Syriza party's victory in Greece’s recent general election, it was obvious that, far from being over, the euro crisis was threatening to worsen. And it does not take a prophet to predict that the Greek election result will leave the European Union's German-backed austerity policy in tatters.

Opportunities and Risks for Investors After the Oil Price Slump
Daniel Lacalle (PIMCO) Jan 30, 2015
What we are seeing now is that oil prices, when OPEC refuses to balance the market, test the marginal cost of production, and costs fall. Some of the costs of the largest components of oil projects - high-spec sixth-generation rigs, pressure pumping, seismic, completion - have fallen between 20% and 45% in the space of months as overcapacity became evident and capital expenditure was revised downward. There needs to be a process of restructuring and consolidation where the inefficient or highly indebted producers give way to stronger, more efficient companies that structure their business and investment to attain solid returns at mid-cycle prices, instead of betting on "higher for longer."

Fiscal policy explains the weak recovery
Simon Wren-Lewis (VoxEU) Jan 30, 2015
The anaemic recovery from the Global Crisis and the downward trend in real interest rates since 1980 have revived interest in the idea of secular stagnation. This column argues that if the US, UK, and Eurozone had not pursued contractionary fiscal policies from 2010 onwards, the recovery would not have been so slow and nominal interest rates would no longer be at the zero lower bound. Expanding the stock of government debt would have ameliorated, not worsened, the shortage of safe assets.

Momentum trading, return chasing, and predictable crashes
Benjamin Chabot, Eric Ghysels and Ravi Jagannathan (VoxEU) Jan 30, 2015
The strategy of momentum investing says simply to buy stocks that are rising in value and sell those that are falling. Abnormal returns should be crowded-out, but have somehow remained remarkably persistent. This column explains the role of periodic crashes – when momentum investing fails – using historical data from Victorian London and the CSRP-era US. Crashes happen just when momentum investing has been most successful, and fund managers are able to attract the most capital.

The role of demography in explaining secular stagnation
Axel Gottfries and Coen Teulings (VoxEU) Jan 30, 2015
The secular stagnation hypothesis has gained traction in the aftermath of the Global Crisis. This column argues that demography has played an important role in reducing the interest rates. The increase in life expectancy, which has not been offset by an increase in the retirement age, has led to an increase in the stocks of savings. The latter will go into price increases for assets in fixed supply – such as housing – rather than in adding new capital. Potential remedies for absorbing the extra savings are increasing the retirement age and an extension of the pay-as-you-go benefit systems.

FDI and developing nation supply chains: Four case studies
Theodore H. Moran (VoxEU) Jan 30, 2015
Joining international supply chains has helped some developing nations to industrialise while leaving others by the wayside. This column discusses research that extract lessons from four case studies. It suggests the key to success is combining pro-active investment promotion with customised infrastructure improvements and public-private vocational training that allow investors to fit production from a novel site seamlessly into the company’s international supplier network.

Secular stagnation in the Eurozone
Paul De Grauwe (VoxEU) Jan 30, 2015
Nowhere in the developed world is secular stagnation more visible than in the Eurozone. This column explains this phenomenon with asymmetric external balances within the Eurozone. Southern countries had accumulated current-account deficits and became debtors when the Crisis hit, whereas the northern ones became creditors. The burden of the adjustments has been borne almost exclusively by the debtor countries creating a deflationary bias. Suggested fiscal policy prescriptions are government investment programmes, to be implemented by northern countries (and in particular, Germany).

The Economic Fundamentals of Emerging Market Volatility
Ana Maria Santacreu (FRBSL Economic Synopses) Jan 30, 2015
Countries with weaker economic fundamentals experienced higher currency volatility and capital flows.

Rethinking How Economies Work
Philippe Legrain (Globalist) Jan 31, 2015
Europe can build better economies and societies. Progress is possible. But how?

The Democratic Merits of Selective Schools
Andrés Velasco (Project Syndicate) Jan 31, 2015
Chile’s Instituto Nacional, a completely free secondary school for boys, ranks among the best in the country – not least because of its wholly meritocratic admissions policy. Given this, the government's plan to institute an admissions lottery is wrong-headed – and could end up weakening Chilean democracy.

The ECB and Its Critics
Jean Pisani-Ferry (Project Syndicate) Jan 31, 2015
The European Central Bank’s decision to embark on quantitative easing has triggered an avalanche of indictments, largely reflecting northern European (and especially German) concerns. Though the main charges against QE are unfounded, they must be confronted head-on, lest they undermine the ECB’s credibility and effectiveness.

Opportunities and Risks for Investors After the Oil Price Slump
Daniel Lacalle (PIMCO) Jan 31, 2015
What we are seeing now is that oil prices, when OPEC refuses to balance the market, test the marginal cost of production, and costs fall. Some of the costs of the largest components of oil projects – high-spec sixth-generation rigs, pressure pumping, seismic, completion – have fallen between 20% and 45% in the space of months as overcapacity became evident and capital expenditure was revised downward. There needs to be a process of restructuring and consolidation where the inefficient or highly indebted producers give way to stronger, more efficient companies that structure their business and investment to attain solid returns at mid-cycle prices, instead of betting on “higher for longer.”