News & Commentary:

Articles/Commentary

Investors should choose carefully which dip to buy
Michael Mackenzie (FT) Feb 1, 2020
Beijing is expected to inject further economic stimulus, which would change the game.

What if Brexit Works?
Mark Landler (NYT) Feb 1, 2020
Britain is remaking itself again. The shape of its society and economy, and its place in the world, are very much up for grabs.

With Brexit, Britain is finally at the wheel of its own destiny
Ryan Bourne (WP) Feb 1, 2020
The key implication of leaving the E.U. is confirmation that a range of policy powers, for good or ill, will ultimately be returned to Britain.

Brexit is finally happening. Now the hard part begins.
Henry Olsen (WP) Feb 1, 2020
Sovereignty has consequences. But the costs are worth it.

Thailand's Economy Was Already Sickening
Clara Ferreira Marques (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 1, 2020
The Wuhan coronavirus outbreak could tip Southeast Asia's second-largest economy into recession.

The imperial roots of global trade
Gunes Gokmen, Wessel Vermeulen, and Pierre-Louis Vézina (VoxEU) Feb 1, 2020
Throughout history, empires have facilitated trade within their territories by building and securing trade and migration routes, and by imposing common norms, languages, religions, and legal systems, all of which led to the accumulation of imperial capital. This column, based on novel data on the rise and fall of empires over the last 5,000 years, shows that imperial capital has a positive effect on current trade beyond historical legacies such as sharing a language or a religion. This suggests a persistent and previously unexplored influence of long-gone empires on current trade.

Steven Mnuchin is wrong about climate economics
Gavyn Davies (FT) Feb 2, 2020
The US Treasury secretary is dismissing the risks far too lightly.

SARS Stung the Global Economy. The Coronavirus Is a Greater Menace.
Peter S. Goodman (NYT) Feb 2, 2020
In the nearly 20 years since SARS, China's importance in the global economy has grown exponentially.

The (perplexing) state of the economy
Robert Samuelson (WP) Feb 2, 2020
Many economists think the seeds of a crisis have already been planted.

Boris Johnson sets course for the hardest possible Brexit deal
Economist Feb 2, 2020
Negotiations on a new relationship between Britain and the EU will be fraught.

India navigates a new global order
Suman Bery (EAF) Feb 2, 2020
Slowing growth makes the new budget the preoccupation of economic policy attention in Delhi right now. Yet India will also need to take a clear-eyed strategic view of the emerging international economic landscape and its implications for growth. Even if India's development path remains largely driven by domestic choices, shifts in the global order will affect its opportunities.

China Vs. Indonesia: Intra-Asian Power Games
Philip Bowring (Globalist) Feb 2, 2020
Beyond the constant strife with the U.S., China's assertion of global powers runs into increasing resistance even by normally acquiescent Asian nations.

OPEC Only Faces One Choice in China Virus Crisis
Julian Lee (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 2, 2020
The new coronavirus will take a chunk out of China's oil demand. Producers must respond with an output cut.

Defining emerging market cities using lights at night
Jonathan Dingel, Antonio Miscio, and Donald R. Davis (VoxEU) Feb 2, 2020
Nearly three billion more people are expected to join the world's urbanised population over the coming decades, most of them in developing countries. In order to compare the spatial distribution of economic activity in different cities as they evolve, this column begins with a deceptively simple question: what constitutes a city? Using satellite imagery of lights at night to define cities, this approach finds that in Brazil, China, and India, agglomeration appears to be skill-biased, as it is in developed economies.

Stress tests can limit international spillovers of accommodative monetary policy
Emily Liu, Friederike Niepmann, and Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr (VoxEU) Feb 2, 2020
After the Global Crisis, accommodative monetary policy also eased financial conditions in emerging market economies. This column shows that US banks contributed to the transmission of US monetary policy and that regulation and supervision attenuated it. Only US banks that performed well in the Fed's annual stress tests expanded their lending to emerging markets in response to monetary easing.

Coronavirus has put globalisation into reverse
FT View Feb 3, 2020
Government response is perhaps as damaging as the virus itself.

Coronavirus should snap investors out of 'buy the dip' mentality
Mohamed El-Erian (FT) Feb 3, 2020
Viral outbreak highlights weak global growth and less effective central banks.

Can Argentina escape a debt default?
Benedict Mander (FT) Feb 3, 2020
Creditors' concern grows about lack of progress in fixing country's most urgent problem.

Coronavirus will hit global growth
Rana Foroohar (FT) Feb 3, 2020
China's place in the world economy has grown dramatically since the US triggered earlier recessions.

How to secure the EU's post-Brexit future
Wolfgang Münchau (FT) Feb 3, 2020
Recognition of a two-speed Europe would help fix divides.

China's Economic Contagion
WSJ Feb 3, 2020
The world will pay a growth price for the Wuhan coronavirus.

Modi Misses Again
WSJ Feb 3, 2020
India's PM seems to have given up on a pro-growth agenda.

Brexit: Predictions of Economic Doom Show Why People Ignore "Experts"
Ryan McMaken (Mises Wire) Feb 3, 2020
Experts who predicted economic doom as Brexit approached obsessed over the problem of "transaction costs" in trade. But the EU was imposing countless new transaction costs of its own.

India navigates a new global order
Suman Bery (Bruegel) Feb 3, 2020
With Indian economic growth slowing, commentary is focused on Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's 2020–21 Union Budget.

China's Contagion Risk Looks Contained, in Markets at Least
John Authers (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 3, 2020
As horrific as the declines may be, they only bring prices into line with moves offshore during the country's extended break.

Banker Tests Cause the Wrong Type of Stress
Ferdinando Giugliano (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 3, 2020
Investors aren't served well by Europe's bank stress tests. The EBA is trying to make things more transparent, but that is only a start.

Virus Forces the China Car Shutdown Beijing Couldn't
Anjani Trivedi (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 3, 2020
The outbreak could impose more supply discipline on overcapacity automakers buried in unsold inventory.

Fantasy Fiscal Policy
Kenneth Rogoff (Project Syndicate) Feb 3, 2020
Many leading central bankers now argue that, instead of just playing its traditional role of deciding the allocation of government spending, investment, taxes, and transfers, fiscal policy must substitute for monetary policy in economic fine-tuning and fighting recession. That would be a big mistake.

Building an EU-UK Special Relationship
Daniel Gros (Project Syndicate) Feb 3, 2020
With Brexit, the European Union has lost one of its largest member states, and now must decide what kind of future relationship to pursue with the United Kingdom. Fortunately, beyond trade, there is a broad range of issues on which the two parties can cooperate.

How a rising minimum wage reduced earnings inequality in Brazil
Christian Moser and Niklas Engbom (VoxDev) Feb 3, 2020
Over a 16-year period, the Brazilian government more than doubled the real minimum wage. During the same time frame, earnings inequality decreased substantially.

Brexit Is Fake News
Chris Miller (FP) Feb 3, 2020
Despite the showy exit, Britain's departure from the European Union is little more than symbolic as many of its international institutions, trade agreements, and agreements with European nations will remain the same.

Knock-On Effects of China's Coronavirus May Be Worse Than Thought
Keith Johnson and James Palmer (FP) Feb 6, 2020
China's economy is bigger and weaker than during SARS, and ripple effects are already being felt across supply chains and in commodities markets.

Automatic stabilizers in a low-rate environment
Olivier Blanchard and Lawrence H. Summers (PIIE) Feb 3, 2020
With interest rates persistently low or even negative in advanced countries, policymakers have barely any room to ease monetary policy when the next recession hits. Fiscal policy will have to play a major and likely dominant role in stimulating the economy, requiring policymakers to fundamentally reconsider fiscal policy. Blanchard and Summers argue for the introduction of what they call "semiautomatic" stabilizers. Unlike purely automatic stabilizers (mechanisms built into government budgets that automatically—without discretionary government action or explicit triggers—increase spending or decrease taxes when the economy slows or enters a recession), semiautomatic stabilizers are targeted tax or spending measures that are triggered if, say, the output growth rate declines or the unemployment rate increases beyond a specified threshold. The authors argue that the trigger should be changes in unemployment rather than changes in output, and the design of semiautomatic stabilizers, whether they focus on mechanisms that rely primarily on income or on intertemporal substitution effects (changing the timing of consumption), depends crucially on the design of discretionary policy.

UK government must come clean on EU trade strategy
FT View Feb 4, 2020
Business and the public need to understand the economic impact.

Oil majors must face up to impossible trinity
Martijn Rats (FT) Feb 4, 2020
Groups have to find ways to tap cheap pools of capital that target renewables.

For the US and China, interdependence is a double-edged sword
Joseph Nye (FT) Feb 4, 2020
Economic exchange can produce welfare gains, but it can also be used as a weapon.

Companies warn of economic crisis as China fights the coronavirus
Economist Feb 4, 2020
The government steps up support, not to boost growth but to ensure social stability.

A US Stock Market Boom is Not the Basis of Shared Prosperity
Thomas I. Palley (Globalist) Feb 4, 2020
The U.S. addiction to stock price inflation is rooted in an illusion. It is promoted by Donald Trump, Wall Street, the Fed and mainstream economists.

South Korea's Neo-Mercantilist Growth Engine Has Stalled
Mihai Macovei (Mises Wire) Feb 4, 2020
After very quickly becoming an advanced economy, South Korea is experiencing declining growth and labor productivity. The culprit, as usual, is government intervention in the market to favor certain interests.

Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs are cascading out of control
Chad P. Bown (PIIE) Feb 4, 2020
President Donald Trump's brazen move in late January to extend his previously imposed "national security" tariffs on steel and aluminum to cover even more products was greeted with a collective yawn by many weary of his unending trade wars. But this latest action was significant because, explicitly for the first time, Trump was imposing new tariffs to help an industry suffering because of his previous tariffs.

The decoupling the world is waiting for: China's green growth breakthrough
Sebastian Eckardt, Martin Raiser, and Dafei Huang (Brookings) Feb 4, 2020
After a disappointing COP25 in Madrid, the hopes for decisive climate action now reside on a better outcome in Glasgow this year, where countries will be expected to raise their commitments to emission reductions. As the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases, China is in a unique position to decelerate the pace of global emissions. If China succeeds, it will not only play an enormous role in combatting global climate change, but also solidify improvements in pollution control and air quality, with direct benefits to millions of its own people. In the process it could also unlock new drivers of innovation, growth, and job creation at home and help alleviate potential tensions and loss of market access abroad.

Oil Will Still Be Sickly After the Virus
Clara Ferreira Marques (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 4, 2020
In 2003, China's economy was relatively small and growing fast. Now it's huge and slowing. So don't expect a post-SARS-like rebound.

Mexico's Lopez Obrador Is Stoking Corruption, Not Fighting It
Shannon K O'Neil (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 4, 2020
His shady associates and wrongheaded policies are making a bad problem worse.

Pandemics Are Breeding Grounds for Trade Wars
Stephen Mihm (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 4, 2020
History shows how easily protections against outbreaks like coronavirus can turn into protectionism.

Modi's 'Thalinomics' Is a Recipe for a Bad Economy
Mihir Sharma (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 4, 2020
India's budget offers a hodgepodge of half-measures that won't end a slowdown.

The Two Words Every Central Banker Wants to Hear
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 4, 2020
The Fed has cited "global developments" for its past three rate cuts. To stem the economic hit from the coronavirus, a fourth is needed.

Africa Is the Last Frontier for Global Growth
Colin Coleman (Project Syndicate) Feb 4, 2020
If Africa sustains and accelerates structural reforms over the next half-century, some believe that the continent can emulate China's rapid rise of the last 50 years. But success is far from guaranteed, even as the consequences of failure would be grave – and global.

The Battle for French Pension Reform
Raphaël Hadas-Lebel (Project Syndicate) Feb 4, 2020
In a country with 42 different pension schemes and deep-seated stakes in maintaining the status quo, it is no surprise that a proposed overhaul of the French retirement system would be met with strong public resistance. And yet, reform is both necessary and inevitable, given France's demographic realities.

Regional redistribution and populist voting
Giuseppe Albanese, Guglielmo Barone, and Guido de Blasio (VoxEU) Feb 4, 2020
There is a rapidly growing empirical literature on the causes of the recent rise of populism in Western countries, but much less is known about solutions. This column, part of the Vox debate on populism, shows that in areas facing similarly adverse economic shocks, the exposure to the EU regional redistribution policy has helped lowering the support for populist parties. This suggests that, at least in the short term, fiscal policy can be an effective tool against the populist backlash.

Capital flows at risk: Taming the ebbs and flows
Gaston Gelos, Lucyna Gornicka, Robin Koepke, Ratna Sahay, and Silvia Sgherri (VoxEU) Feb 4, 2020
Capital flows to emerging markets have continued to be highly volatile since the Global Crisis. This column uses a new framework to show that country characteristics and policy responses matter for risks to future capital flows. It finds that good institutions support stable capital flows over the medium horizon, and while foreign exchange interventions seem to help mitigate downside risks to inflows caused by worsening global conditions, a tightening of capital flow measures in response to an adverse global shock is found to be counterproductive.

West Africa Plans Common Currency
Simon M. Mutungi (YaleGlobal) Feb 4, 2020
Debt and weak institutions could threaten the eco currency from the start.

Update on Coronavirus and China's GDP Outlook
Nick Bennenbroek and Jen Licis (WF) Feb 4, 2020
The coronavirus outbreak centered in China has continued to intensify, with latest reports placing the number of cases in China at more than 20,600, and at least 425 deaths. Given the broadening scope of the outbreak, we expect significant hit to China's Q1 GDP, with that lost output mostly, but not fully, recovered in subsequent quarters.

Which Economies Are Most Exposed to a Chinese Slowdown?
Jay H. Bryson, Michael Pugliese, and Jen Licis (WF) Feb 4, 2020
The outbreak of the 2019-nCoV coronavirus in central China has sparked concerns that an already fragile global economy could tilt even closer to recession. We examine which economies have the most exposure to China.

The UK is about to shoot itself in both feet
Martin Wolf (FT) Feb 5, 2020
Britain's demands for its negotiations with the EU are unrealistic.

How to avoid a corporate zombie apocalypse
Robert Armstrong (FT) Feb 5, 2020
Investors must put pressure on weak companies when interest rates do not.

Investors need to position for a clash of civilisations
Diana Choyleva (FT) Feb 5, 2020
A 'great decoupling' is under way between the incumbent superpower and its challenger.

Dollarisation would not save Argentina
Luis Jácome (FT) Feb 5, 2020
Ecuador's experience shows that sound policies are paramount, whatever the currency.

Assessing Climate-Change Risk by Stress Testing for Financial Resilience
Tobias Adrian, James Morsink, and Liliana Schumacher (IMF) Feb 5, 2020
As society braces for the potential havoc a changing climate could induce, it's vital to gauge the range of shocks that the economy may soon endure. One way to quantify the effects of the potentially systemic shocks that could ripple through the financial system is to administer "stress tests"—a well-designed analytical process that has, for decades, been used by the IMF, World Bank and financial supervisors for detailed scenario planning to prevent future financial crises.

New Priorities for the Global Economy
Kristalina Georgieva (IMF) Feb 5, 2020
I would like to highlight three areas of action: (i) inclusive growth—helping countries foster a culture of solidarity; (ii) integration—promoting a globalization of hope; and (iii) climate action—caring for our common home.

China's Banks Are Going to Suffer. But Not Equally
Nisha Gopalan (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 5, 2020
The largest must perform national service and the minnows are rickety already. There's a sheltered, if not quite happy, medium.

Why Christine Lagarde Cares About Your House
Ferdinando Giugliano (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 5, 2020
It makes little sense to calculate inflation without including costs for people who own their homes. The ECB should follow the Fed's lead.

Time to Look for Supply-Chain Life Beyond China
Anjani Trivedi (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 5, 2020
First the trade war, now the coronavirus. Japan's machinery makers show why the world needs a bigger shop floor.

Brazil Needs a Fresh Start
Luciano Huck (Project Syndicate) Feb 5, 2020
Since the restoration of democracy in 1985, Brazil has made notable gains when it comes to taming inflation, expanding welfare assistance, and even reducing poverty. But unless the country can tackle rising inequality and restore faith in its political leadership, these gains could be lost.

What Does Europe Have to Offer?
Dambisa Moyo (Project Syndicate) Feb 5, 2020
The world is facing powerful economic headwinds, including the Sino-American rivalry, rapid technological change, population aging, worsening income inequality and deteriorating social mobility, and environmental degradation. Europe can help the world to overcome them. But first, it must clarify which ones, and how.

Inflation in a changing economic environment
Michael Ehrmann, Marek Jarocinski, Christiane Nickel, Chiara Osbat, and Andrej Sokol (VoxEU) Feb 5, 2020
Inflation in advanced economies fell by less than expected in the wake of the financial crisis, while more recently, measures of slack and underlying inflation in the euro area have seen a disconnect. These and other inflation developments since the Global Crisis have surprised policymakers, practitioners, and academics alike. This column outlines the evidence presented at a recent ECB conference which aimed at enhancing collective understanding of the drivers and dynamics of inflation.

Does foreign investment create green growth?
Beata Javorcik (VoxDev) Feb 5, 2020
A study in Indonesia reveals that foreign acquisitions lead to a 30% improvement in energy efficiency within two years.

A roadmap for digital-led economic development
Toby Phillips (VoxEU) Feb 5, 2020
In richer developed nations almost 90% of people are online, but this number is less than 20% in the least-developed countries. This column presents the Pathways for Prosperity Commission's final report, which offers pragmatic suggestions to help developing countries make the most of technological change. It proposes a 'digital compact', with countries working towards a shared vision for the future crafted with the input of industry, civil society, and other national leaders.

What the City needs from an EU trade deal
FT View Feb 6, 2020
UK finance needs managed divergence but regulatory autonomy.

West Africa needs to be prudent after CFA franc
FT View Feb 7, 2020
Moving 'eco' to a basket of currencies is sensible, floating it less so.

Bond surge shows buyers were waiting for an excuse
Tommy Stubbington (FT) Feb 6, 2020
Pent-up demand for fixed income released in rush for haven assets.

The Fed is not doing QE. Here's why that matters
Dominic White (FT) Feb 6, 2020
Attributing rally to the US central bank could wrongfoot investors later this year.

Restructuring Argentina's debt will require IMF support
Hector Torres (FT) Feb 6, 2020
On the brink of fresh default, fund backing alongside agreement with private creditors is needed.

This could be Spain's chance to take a lead in Europe
Martin Sandbu (FT) Feb 6, 2020
What the country does domestically will affect what it can do on the bigger stage.

How the Brexit deal can be done
Chris Giles (FT) Feb 6, 2020
A combination of hard words and fudged reality will be the key to the negotiations.

Mike Bloomberg: Fixing Inequality Is My Priority
Michael R. Bloomberg (NYT) Feb 6, 2020
Right now, the rewards of the economy are far too concentrated at the top.

Let the Trans-Atlantic Trading Begin
Mike Gallagher (WSJ) Feb 6, 2020
Seven key principles for building a bilateral bloc based on mutual prosperity and shared values.

As China sneezes, global economy gets the chills
Umesh Desai (AT) Feb 6, 2020
Taiwan, Singapore, Thailand, Hong Kong hit hardest, bottlenecks in low-value parts threaten downstream units.

Hong Kong's economy is in peril, but its financial system is not
Economist Feb 6, 2020
Its property market and finance industry are somewhat insulated from local worries.

China's Coronavirus will not lead to recession but to stimulus and even more debt
Alicia García-Herrero (Bruegel) Feb 6, 2020
The coronavirus outbreak will not lead to recession but the costs of ensuring growth targets will be high.

The Philippines: A Good Time to Expand the Infrastructure Push
IMF Feb 6, 2020
Infrastructure improvements will be crucial in the Philippines as the country looks to become an upper middle-income country and reduce poverty rates from 16.6 percent in 2018 to 14 percent by 2022.

Have robots grounded the flying geese? Automation and offshoring in the manufacturing sector
Mary Hallward-Driemeier and Gaurav Nayyar (Brookings) Feb 6, 2020
We analyze the impact of robotization in high-income countries on greenfield FDI flows from high-income countries (HICs) to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Unlike trade flows and other investments, which can be sticky and slow to change in response to other factors, greenfield FDI data represent announcements and are therefore forward-looking.

If the Tech Supply Chain Must Face a Pandemic, Now's the Time
Tim Culpan (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 6, 2020
Global hardware manufacturing is more decentralized than it has been in a decade.

The Fed Faces a Housing Conundrum
Danielle DiMartino Booth (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 6, 2020
Artificially repressed interest rates have perverted what was once a market driven by supply and demand.

What's Powering the U.S. Economy? It's a Mystery, Frankly
Noah Smith (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 6, 2020
Maybe this is what happens when there isn't wild financial speculation, misguided Fed policy or an oil price spike.

No, Boeing Isn't Ruining Trump's 3% Growth Target
Brooke Sutherland (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 6, 2020
With or without the 737 Max crisis, U.S. growth was unlikely to hit 3% this year.

Realizing the Potential of AI Localism
Stefaan G. Verhulst and Mona Sloane (Project Syndicate) Feb 6, 2020
With national innovation strategies focused primarily on achieving dominance in artificial intelligence, the problem of actually regulating AI applications has received less attention. Fortunately, cities and other local jurisdictions are picking up the baton and conducting policy experiments that will yield lessons for everyone.

Helping microenterprises grow: What works and what doesn't
Seema Jayachandran (VoxDev) Feb 6, 2020
Policy interventions in non-agricultural small-scale enterprises shed light on what matters for firm growth and profitability.

How services boost goods exports
Andrea Ariu, Florian Mayneris, and Mathieu Parenti (VoxEU) Feb 6, 2020
Many large and successful firms sell both goods and services; yet economists and policymakers continue to consider the two as distinct sectors subject to their own market adjustments and specific policies. Based on Belgian data, this column argues that the most successful manufacturing firms thrive through selling services that are associated with their goods. Services increase the appeal of a firm's products, thus allowing it to sell more and at higher prices in international markets. Considering goods and services separately in trade agreement negotiations is likely to miss part of the business and welfare gains and losses.

How the Wealthy Sell Treasures Tax-Free
John Zarobell (YaleGlobal) Feb 6, 2020
More freeports operate in secret, designed to shield art and other assets from taxes

Education in Africa: spend more and do so more efficiently
Hanan Morsy (FT) Feb 7, 2020
The continent's governments are falling short. Here's how they can do better.

Derivatives are a precious commodity in UK-EU trade
Philip Stafford (FT) Feb 7, 2020
Disruption to the trading relationship between neighbours could harm both sides.

Coronavirus strikes World Bank's 2017 catastrophe bonds
John Dizard (FT) Feb 7, 2020
Originally scheduled to mature in July this year, they are teetering on the edge of default.

The US-China currency deal will provoke new trade tensions
Jeffrey J. Schott (PIIE) Feb 7, 2020
President Donald Trump has long claimed that China gained competitive advantage in trade by manipulating its exchange rate. That was true 15 years ago but not in recent years. No matter, Trump administration officials continue to raise the specter of past goblins to rally support for their efforts to erect new import restrictions against Chinese goods and services. And that remains the case despite the recently announced US-China "phase one" trade deal and its new obligations on currency practices.

The Post-Virus Recovery Will Be Copper-Bottomed
Clara Ferreira Marques (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 7, 2020
The industrial metal is on a record losing streak. Look for a sharp rebound once China's inevitable stimulus efforts kick in.

How Can the Coronavirus Possibly Be Good for Stocks?
Shuli Ren (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 7, 2020
China's markets have rallied, despite a rising death toll and the economy operating at half-speed. A slowing crackdown on shadow banking could explain it.

Coronavirus Hits Oil's Weakest Credits Hardest
Liam Denning (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 7, 2020
Frackers' best vaccine is a bolstered balance sheet.

Hyperinflation or Stagnation, Which Is Worse? Ask Latin America.
John Authers (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 7, 2020
For much of the region, the long-held fear of inflation and instability has been replaced by a new fear of deflation and secular sluggishness.

Macron's Travels in Lilliput
Slawomir Sierakowski (Project Syndicate) Feb 7, 2020
During a recent visit to Poland, French President Emmanuel Macron avoided the controversial topic of judicial independence and focused instead on economic and defense cooperation. By responding to this overture with open displays of contempt, Poland's populist leaders have condemned their country to continued isolation and ridicule.

Europe Lives On
Bernard-Henri Lévy (Project Syndicate) Feb 7, 2020
There is no denying that the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the European Union represents a loss for all involved, and strikes a blow against the very idea of Europe. But while Britain has left Europe, Europeans should not abandon the British legacy – particularly the deep, historical commitment to liberalism.

Has the "Great Decoupling" Gone Viral?
Kevin Rudd (Project Syndicate) Feb 7, 2020
Nowadays, it is common to hear arguments warning of a bifurcation of the global economy into mutually exclusive American and Chinese spheres of influence. But, 18 months after the first shots in the Sino-American trade war were fired, the situation is more complicated than that, owing not just to economic realities and the new coronavirus outbreak, but also each country's political priorities.

Bank intermediation when interest rates are very low for long
Michael Brei, Claudio Borio, and Leonardo Gambacorta (VoxEU) Feb 7, 2020
In the aftermath of the Global Crisis, both short-term and also long-term interest rates have fallen to historically low levels. This column sheds light on how banks adjust their business in a very low interest rate environment. The results are mixed news for financial stability and for banks' capacity to support economic activity through lending. A shift to less risky portfolios, combined with higher capitalisation, strengthens banks' resilience and lending capacity. But lower profitability due to the lower net interest margins may make them more vulnerable and less able to provide loans in the longer term.

The Hidden Cost of Migrant Labor
Deepak Unnikrishnan (FA) Feb 7, 2020
What it means to be a temporary person in the Gulf.

Is Pakistan's Economy Recovering?
Kunwar Khuldune Shahid (Diplomat) Feb 7, 2020
While there are positive signs, the IMF bailout conditions continue to pinch for average Pakistanis.

Trump Opens a New Front in the Trade Wars
Keith Johnson (FP) Feb 8, 2020
With a new currency rule, the U.S. president will try to fix the damage caused by the very tariffs he imposed. But he could end up wreaking more havoc.

Tesla: the iPhone of electric vehicles or just another car company?
Richard Waters in San Francisco and Peter Campbell (FT) Feb 8, 2020
Elon Musk's company is well placed as competition starts to intensify and rivals invest heavily

Don't Expect China to Rebound Quickly From Coronavirus
Mohamed Aly El-Erian (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 8, 2020
Cascading spillovers in trade, supply and demand, and the movement of goods are difficult to reverse rapidly.

If the Coronavirus Is Such a Big Economic Threat, Act on It
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 8, 2020
Almost all of Asia's central bankers have cited risks to growth. Few have delivered easing measures.

When Even a Rich City Is Starved of Funds
Andy Mukherjee (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 8, 2020
Mumbai is India's great financial center, but its future depends on how Modi's government allocates tax.

In Poland, rule of law is under ever greater threat
FT View Feb 9, 2020
The PiS government is bringing the judiciary under political control.

The Federal Reserve's new inflation regime
Gavyn Davies (FT) Feb 9, 2020
Forthcoming decisions on average targeting will determine future monetary policy.

Britain and EU are negotiating at cross purposes
Wolfgang Münchau (FT) Feb 9, 2020
Once the UK accepted trade friction, everything changed.

Trump's trade policy is injurious and insults the truth
WP Feb 9, 2020
With steel in his sights, the president's moves will further damage the economy.

Smaller countries lose in the US–China trade deal
Edward Alden (EAF) Feb 9, 2020
We are entering a world where smaller countries will no longer have the protective umbrellas of those rules, and will at best be able to cut unbalanced deals with the big players.

Paralysis Shows OPEC Is Too Unwieldy
Julian Lee (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 9, 2020
Time is running out for OPEC and its partners to manage the oil market disruption caused by the coronavirus in an orderly way.

Hong Kong Is Showing Symptoms of a Failed State
Clara Ferreira Marques (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 9, 2020
With empty supermarket shelves and rising public distrust, the coronavirus-hit city is ticking most of the boxes.

Leverage risk and investment: The case of gold clauses in the 1930s
Joao Gomes, Mete Kilic, and Sebastien Plante (VoxEU) Feb 9, 2020
A joint resolution of US Congress in June 1933 invalidated gold clauses, which allowed for repayment in gold as well as paper, in public as well as private debt contracts. A series of lawsuits ensued, but in 1935 a complex and confused ruling by the Supreme Court determined that Congress's action, while invalid, could be maintained. This column argues that about one-third of the dramatic drop in the aggregate investment of public firms over 1933 and 1934 is explained by these events. By 1936 nearly all of the, now positive, net investment is accounted for by the elimination of these leverage risks to corporate balance sheets.

Virus crisis challenges China's social contract
FT View Feb 10, 2020
When the epidemic abates, Beijing should reflect on its model of governance.

Where to find the value in emerging markets
FT View Feb 10, 2020
Deglobalisation means that investors need to look further afield.

Democracy is under threat, we must add a D to ESG
Marcos Buscaglia (FT) Feb 10, 2020
Democracy bonds could empower the fight for human rights.

US must dial down the fizz in the opaque world of private capital
Robin Wigglesworth (FT) Feb 10, 2020
Regulators have a chance to show they have not been defanged.

Currency Manipulator in Chief
WSJ Feb 10, 2020
Wilbur Ross creates a new political opening for U.S. protectionism.

Japan: Demographic Shift Opens Door to Reforms
IMF Feb 10, 2020
Japan's population is aging and shrinking fast. With a median age of 48.4 years, Japan's population is the world's oldest. The government of Japan projects that there will be almost one elderly person for each person of working age by 2060.

Why Ghana Is Africa's Top Candidate for an Economic Leap
Noah Smith (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 10, 2020
The country scores high on development metrics; it just needs to break free of dependence on commodities.

QE Works. It's Just Not a Slam-Dunk Recession Stopper.
Noah Smith (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 10, 2020
With interest rates still very low, the Fed has only one tool left to fight the next recession.

Boris Johnson Wants to Be a Free Trade Grandmaster
Therese Raphael (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 10, 2020
Britain is aiming for quick trade deals with the U.S., the EU, Japan, New Zealand and Australia. None of these gambits is likely to yield a great victory.

High-Frequency Trading Is Changing for the Better
Robert Burgess (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 10, 2020
Pure speed is no longer the only thing that matters.

The Coronavirus Will Not Cripple China's Economy
Zhang Jun (Project Syndicate) Feb 10, 2020
Although the scope of the coronavirus outbreak exceeds that of SARS in 2003, current data suggest that the epidemic will likely reach a turning point in the next two weeks. That would mean China might conquer the virus in the first quarter, which is essential to mitigating the epidemic's impact on overall growth in 2020.

Africa Must Choose Renewables Over Coal
Carlos Lopes (Project Syndicate) Feb 10, 2020
African governments should strengthen strategies and policies aimed at encouraging the transition to a new climate economy and increasing investment in clean energy. By phasing out fossil fuels, Africa can lead by example in the global effort to combat climate change.

The accuracy of long-term growth forecasts by economics researchers
Masayuki Morikawa (VoxEU) Feb 10, 2020
Although long-term macroeconomic forecasts substantially affect the sustainability of government debt and the social security system, they cannot avoid significant uncertainty. This column assesses whether academic researchers in economics make accurate long-term growth forecasts, comparing ten-year growth forecasts made by Japanese economists in 2006–2007 with the realised figures. Even excluding the years affected by the Global Crisis, the results show that forecasts tend to be biased upwards and involve significant uncertainty, even for economics researchers specialising in macroeconomics or economic growth.

Still highly fragile
Stefan Schneider and others (DB Research) Feb 10, 2020
After very weak December data a small drop in Q4 GDP seems likely. Looking forward, the coronavirus provides a substantial risk for the expected global recovery, as hopes were pinned on an improvement of the Chinese economy. We assume that the corona outbreak will shave off 0.2pp of Germany's Q1 GDP, making a technical recession quite probable during the winter half.

It's Africa's Turn to Leave the European Union
Brian Stout (FP) Feb 10, 2020
The EU doesn't treat the African Union as an equal partner. Unless the AU resets relations, it's in for decades more of the same.

Wringing the Overoptimism from FOMC Growth Forecasts
Kevin J. Lansing and Winnie Yee (FRBSF Econ Letter) Feb 10, 2020
Growth forecasts by Federal Open Market Committee meeting participants were persistently too optimistic for 2008 through 2016. The typical forecast started out high but was revised down over time, often dramatically, as incoming data failed to meet expectations. In contrast, forecasts for 2017 through 2019 started low but were revised up over time. Cumulative forecast revisions for these years were much smaller on average than in the past. These observations suggest that participants have adjusted their forecast methodology, including lowering estimates of trend growth, to eliminate the prior optimistic bias.

Japanese stocks are well placed to confound the sceptics
Kathy Matsui (FT) Feb 11, 2020
From coronavirus to corporate governance changes, foreign investors are too bearish.

Stockpickers turn to big data to arrest decline
Robin Wigglesworth (FT) Feb 11, 2020
Many fund managers are embracing machine learning and other technologies to improve their performance.

Britain could seal Asian trade deal by adopting a fresh attitude to palm oil
Teresa Kok (FT) Feb 11, 2020
A proposed ban on the commodity for biofuel would lead to more deforestation.

How will the coronavirus impact China's banks?
Brian Caplen (Banker) Feb 11, 2020
Chinese banks will take a hit from a rise in bad loans as a result of the outbreak of the coronavirus, and international banks need to relook at the financing of supply chains.

$3 Trillion Can't Buy China Out of Virus Trouble
Satyajit Das (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 11, 2020
Asia's foreign-exchange reserves are more a symptom of economic problems than a sign of strength.

Things Are Falling Apart for Europe's Single Currency
John Authers (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 11, 2020
From political turmoil in Germany to slumping manufacturing, it's all going wrong.

Germany Is One of the Biggest Brexit Losers
Andreas Kluth (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 11, 2020
Without the U.K., Germany is pushed into an EU role it hates. It loses a liberal soulmate, a counterweight to France, above all a counterweight to itself.

Coronavirus Threatens Oil Producers With Double Whammy
Ellen R Wald (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 11, 2020
A steep and prolonged decline in prices, combined with already-curtailed production, would pose a bigger economic threat than the last big downturn.

The Morality of Taking From the Rich and Giving to the Poor
Noah Smith (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 11, 2020
The question of how much to redistribute is tangled up with what determines individual economic success.

Egyptians Are No Better Off Than Before the Arab Spring
Timothy E Kaldas (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 11, 2020
Despite improved macroeconomic indicators, the demands for bread, freedom and social justice remain elusive for most.

What Is Twenty-First-Century Socialism?
John E. Roemer (Project Syndicate) Feb 11, 2020
he failures of communism in the twentieth century were an indictment not of socialism but of autocracy and central planning. After four decades of Gilded Age-style capitalism, it is time to give cooperative production and egalitarian distribution another try, this time through a democratic "sharing economy."

Europe Must Recognize China for What It Is
George Soros (Project Syndicate) Feb 11, 2020
hinese President Xi Jinping will meet the heads of state and government of the 27 EU member states at the EU-China summit in Leipzig in September. Europeans need to understand that they will hand him a much-needed political victory unless he is held accountable for his failure to uphold human rights, particularly in Tibet, Xinjiang, and Hong Kong.

How the coronavirus threatens Xi's 'Chinese dream'
David Ignatius (WP) Feb 11, 2020
The maximum leader faces maximum difficulty.

Getting Carbon Border Taxes Right
Kemal Dervis (Project Syndicate) Feb 11, 2020
Carbon border taxes could help the world move more efficiently toward sustainability. But if such taxes are to be part of a consensual multilateral approach, rather than a new source of conflict, policymakers will have to tackle distributional issues upfront as part of a strategic design, not as an afterthought.

America's Isolationist Default
Barry Eichengreen (Project Syndicate) Feb 11, 2020
There is much truth to the view that President Donald Trump's "America First" policies are an abdication of global leadership, sounding the death knell of the post-World War II multilateral order that the United States shaped and sustained. At the same time, this troubling turn represents a reversion to long-standing US values.

2 Easy Ways to Shrink America's Overseas Footprint
Michael Brenes and Michael Franczak (FP) Feb 11, 2020
Cutting dysfunctional programs offers a start to ending American primacy.

Eastern Europe gives more to the west than it gets back
Clotilde Armand (FT) Feb 12, 2020
EU budget should take into the account corporate profits and the cost of brain drain.

Hunt for coronavirus rebound stocks is not simple
James Kynge (FT) Feb 12, 2020
One approach is to look at where fund managers were positioned before the outbreak.

Look on the bright side of the Brazilian real
Jonathan Wheatley (FT) Feb 12, 2020
Rate cuts hurt the currency but should buoy local markets.

Has coronavirus shaken China's confidence?
David Goldman (AT) Feb 12, 2020
Beijing is scrambling to repair its bruised credibility after reacting too slowly to the deadly epidemic

Construction Activity Can Signal When Credit Booms Go Wrong
Deniz Igan (IMF) Feb 12, 2020
New evidence on credit booms.

US-Kenya trade negotiations: A chance to get it right
Anabel González (PIIE) Feb 12, 2020
The United States and Kenya recently announced that they would begin negotiations on a bilateral trade agreement. If successful, the United States would forge its first bilateral trade accord with a Sub-Saharan African country; for Kenya, it would also be the first of its kind with an advanced economy.[1] If they get it right, the pact would present a great opportunity for both: Kenya would be able to modernize and open its economy to foreign direct investment (FDI) and growth, and the United States would develop a modern framework to govern trade relations with an important African partner, which could serve as a template for trade agreements with other African economies, allowing it to tap into the region's market potential and catch up to China's presence in this part of the world.

A More Secure Africa Is in America's Best Interests
James G Stavridis (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 12, 2020
Terrorist groups and outside influences are threatening to derail the continent's booming economies, bountiful resources and burgeoning populations.

Coronavirus Sets Up Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain
Conor Sen (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 12, 2020
Companies have been drawing down inventories. Growth should snap back once the outbreak ends and they start restocking.

Trump's Tariffs Haven't Rescued American Steel
Justin Fox (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 12, 2020
The president's industrial policy mainly amounts to picking losers, which is not a recipe for success.

New Firms for A New Era
Dani Rodrik (Project Syndicate) Feb 12, 2020
In recent years, large corporations have become increasingly aware that they must be sensitive not only to the financial bottom line, but also to the social and environmental effects of their activities. But societies should not allow firms' owners and their agents to drive the discussion about reforming corporate governance.

The Challenging Arithmetic of Climate Action
Michael Spence (Project Syndicate) Feb 12, 2020
All strategies to mitigate climate change have distributive implications that cannot be overlooked. If left unaddressed, such implications will fuel persistent headwinds to progress on the climate change and sustainability agenda.

The Economic Consequences of the Coronavirus
Akira Kawamoto (Project Syndicate) Feb 12, 2020
The Chinese government's measures to tackle the coronavirus epidemic are handicapping the country's economy and disrupting supply chains and tourism across Asia. Sharing information with the public may be more effective in containing the outbreak than draconian restrictions on freedom of movement – and less economically damaging.

Advanced Economies' Missing Link
Sven Smit and Anu Madgavkar (Project Syndicate) Feb 12, 2020
After a decade of recovery from the 2008 financial crisis, aggregate economic indicators across the OECD are looking bright, with GDP continuing to grow and employment reaching record levels. So why is public sentiment in the advanced economies so gloomy?

The costs of cascading trade protection
Aksel Erbahar and Yuan Zi (VoxEU) Feb 12, 2020
Less than two years after his steel and aluminium tariffs came into effect, President Trump decided to increase the coverage of these tariffs to several downstream products whose domestic producers were hurt by the original tariffs. This column, first published in 2016, presents evidence for such 'cascading protection', showing how US protection of inputs increases the probability of petitions for protection by their downstream users.

Potential Regional Impacts of the Coronavirus
Mark Vitner, Charlie Dougherty, and Matthew Honnold (WF) Feb 11, 2020
Supply chain disruptions stand to be the biggest factor potentially impacting U.S. economic growth, and the effects would be unevenly distributed across the country.

Are U.S. Factories Braced for Supply Disruptions?
Sarah House, Tim Quinlan, and Shannon Seery (WF) Feb 12, 2020
With cases of the new coronavirus continuing to climb and extensive measures being takento curtail its spread, the economic impact now looks likely to be greater than the SARS outbreak in 2003. Not only is China a bigger player in the global economy generally, but U.S. supply chains are more entwined with China today than in the early 2000s.China accounts for roughly twice the share of U.S. capital goods and industrialsupply imports than it did at the time of the SARS epidemic.

How Prepared are Emerging Economies for a Shock or Surprise?
Brendan McKenna and Jen Licis (WF) Feb 12, 2020
When aggregating economic vulnerability, fiscal policy space and monetary policy space we determine an "overall shock vulnerability," which we define as most at risk to a significant GDP slowdown. According to our framework, Argentina, South Africa, Turkey, Poland and India are most at risk in the event of an unforeseen market shock.

Big Oil is facing an existential struggle
FT View Feb 13, 2020
BP's ambitious climate targets set a challenge for its global peers.

The light at the end of the equity tunnel could yet be a train
Katie Martin (FT) Feb 13, 2020
US and European indices have rebounded since the coronavirus sell-off.

Isabel Schnabel's welcome defence of the ECB
Martin Sandbu (FT) Feb 13, 2020
For too long, the central bank has not known how to respond to unfair charges from Berlin.

Iran's Economy Is Bleak. Its Stock Market Is Soaring.
Peter S. Goodman (NYT) Feb 13, 2020
The rise attests to the wealth within the country and the resourcefulness of its companies as they confront U.S. sanctions.

Why the Economics Establishment Hates Judy Shelton
Joseph C. Sternberg (WSJ) Feb 13, 2020
They fear she may be right about the gold standard and the causes of declining productivity growth.

Trump's 100 percent tariff could mean your Champagne is toast
Harmon Skurnik (WP) Feb 13, 2020
Wine tariffs are bad for businesses and bad for consumers.

How China's coronavirus epidemic could hurt the world economy
Economist Feb 13, 2020
Covid-19 brings many unquantifiable risks.

Foreign Aid Just Empowers Corrupt Regimes. End It.
José Niño (Mises Wire) Feb 13, 2020
US aid to foreign regimes helps free governments from having to raise funds from their own people. So, the recipients of foreign aid are likely to become less responsive and more corrupt.

Looking Ahead: India in a Changing World
David Lipton (IMF) Feb 13, 2020
These are the topics that I would like to focus on today: an important part of the global economy struggling with secular stagnation; how, in this setting, India and other countries can achieve sustained dynamism; and the crucial role for multilateral cooperation in preserving the integration that will best promote both of these efforts.

In the Coronavirus Era, 'We Don't Know' Is Defensible
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 13, 2020
Central bankers should be able to admit they don't have all the answers. Candor should become the new benchmark for communication.

Three Risks for Banking in the Time of Coronavirus
Andy Mukherjee (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 13, 2020
Subdued loan volumes, pricing pressures and spikes in credit costs will nag pan-Asian banks.

Now We Can Say the Eurozone Crisis Is Finally Over
John Authers (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 13, 2020
The spread of Greek over German bond yields has at last returned to its level of October 2009.

China's Digital Revolution in Bank Lending
Huang Yiping (Project Syndicate) Feb 13, 2020
China has long recognized the importance of increasing small and medium-size enterprises' access to finance; now, online banks have found the solution the country needs. This could be a boon not only for growth and innovation, but also for broader financial inclusion – in China and beyond.

China's Economic Fight Against the Coronavirus
Yu Yongding (Project Syndicate) Feb 13, 2020
There is no doubt that China will win the battle against the coronavirus. In the meantime, however, policymakers must take steps to ensure that the economy functions as normally as possible – without compromising efforts to contain the outbreak – and can bounce back quickly once the crisis is over.

Foreign exchange swaps: Hidden debt, lurking vulnerability
Claudio Borio, Patrick McGuire, and Robert McCauley (VoxEU) Feb 13, 2020
Foreign exchange swaps and forwards are a key instrument in the global financial system for hedging, position-taking and short-term funding. They involve the exchange of notional amounts at a future date and, as funding vehicles, they are akin to other forms of collateralised borrowing (e.g. repo). The amounts involved are huge, but the instruments remain mysterious in some ways: because of an accounting peculiarity, they are treated very differently from other forms of collateralised debt. This column examines their geography and draws implications for both academics and policymakers. It finds that non-US residents' US dollar forward payment obligations arising from foreign exchange swaps and forwards are likely to be even larger than the corresponding on-balance sheet US dollar debt. It also highlights the favourable regulatory treatment that these instruments receive, and argues that they represent a critical pressure point in international financial markets.

Coronavirus Hits Thailand Hard
Austin Bodetti (Diplomat) Feb 13, 2020
The precipitous drop in visitors from China could represent as big a danger to Thailand as the virus itself.

Coronavirus Threatens to Blow Up Trump's Energy Trade Deal With China
Keith Johnson (FP) Feb 13, 2020
The goals were never realistic, but now Beijing has good reason to back away from its purchase commitments to Washington.

Eurozone weakness is a test for post-crisis policy
FT View Feb 14, 2020
Debt costs fall for troubled countries, but currency bloc still has scars.

How rosy equities mask a wave of investor nerves
Michael Mackenzie (FT) Feb 14, 2020
Jarring rallies 'belie cynicism' over the power of central banks.

Korea 'Continuity Brexit' model may work in Japan
Andrew Salmon (AT) Feb 14, 2020
As a trade-hungry London extends its hand toward Tokyo, the best benchmark for an agreement may lie in Seoul.

What David Malpass Gets Wrong about the Asian Development Bank
Scott Morris (CGD) Feb 14, 2020
In remarks this week, World Bank president David Malpass took the unusual step of calling out the bank's peer institutions, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and African Development Bank, for lending irresponsibly into unsustainable debt environments. He called out the ADB in particular for "pushing" billions of dollars of loans on Pakistan. Even if the charges were accurate, the public shaming would be an odd strategic choice for the World Bank president, given the degree to which these institutions need to coordinate and cooperate on a wide range of issues, including sustainable lending practices. One might conclude from his public remarks that any such coordination has broken down completely and that the ADB and other multilateral development banks (MDBs) are on a reckless lending spree. But that's a misguided take on the role of the other MDBs, and the need for coordination is greater than ever.

Money and Empire
Harold James (Project Syndicate) Feb 14, 2020
Although British imperialists often told themselves that by taking over the public administration of China and the Indian subcontinent, they would bring those civilizations into the modern age, the reality was altogether different. Two histories of Pax Britannica make clear that economic exploitation was always the top priority.

Is it time to rethink poverty policy?
Katie Parry, Robin Burgess, and Oriana Bandiera (VoxDev) Feb 14, 2020
New study offers perhaps the first empirical example of poverty traps and shows that one-off transfers can provide a sustainable route out of poverty.

How bad news can harm economic development
Tim Besley, Thiemo Fetzer, and Hannes Mueller (VoxEU) Feb 14, 2020
Reporting on violence draws attention to countries not typically covered by international news outlets. This leads to a 'bad news' bias, which can affect not only how people view these countries, but whether they choose to visit. Using aggregated spending data to proxy tourist activity, this column documents a robust relationship between the intensity of reporting on violence and subsequent drops in tourist spending, suggesting that a bad news bias can have serious economic consequences for the countries that suffer from it.

The End of History and the Last Map
Nick Danforth (FP) Feb 14, 2020
Cartography and conflict in the post-Cold War world.

Will the Coronavirus Cause a Recession?
Eswar S. Prasad (NYT) Feb 15, 2020
The world's second-largest economy is coming to a near standstill.

Technology is poised to upend America's property market
Economist Feb 15, 2020
At long last, the world's biggest asset market will be shaken up.

'Black swan' coronavirus casts its shadow over the global economy
Jasper Jolly, Gwyn Topham, Zoe Wood and Kalyeena Makortoff (Guardian) Feb 15, 2020
Airlines have grounded flights, banks have sent staff home. In China and worldwide, the virus has taken its toll.

The novel coronavirus and economic contagion
Terence Tai-Leung Chong (EAF) Feb 15, 2020
The SARS experience demonstrates that while the impact of an epidemic on an economy is likely to be severe, it can also be short-lived. But the effects are unlikely to be evenly spread.

Senate must act to keep the Fed independent
FT View Feb 16, 2020
The president's latest board nominee is a deeply flawed candidate.

The 'frugal four' advocate a responsible EU budget
Sebastian Kurz (FT) Feb 16, 2020
With a smaller union of 27 states, we have to cut our coat according to our cloth.

A crossover of fiscal and monetary policy
Gavyn Davies (FT) Feb 16, 2020
The twin pillars need to work together in the next recession.

UK must weigh costs and benefits of divergence
Huw van Steenis (FT) Feb 16, 2020
Parts of financial sector wish to diverge from EU, while some want to stay aligned.

When small businesses are casualties of the trade war
BG Feb 16, 2020
Readers take contrasting views of the woes of a Boston-area small business in the face of the US trade war with China.

Stop Blaming Globalization: Most Problems Are Homemade
Arthur E. Appleton (Globalist) Feb 16, 2020
Amidst many worries about globalization, suggestions for a constructive path forward.

Managing Asia's coronavirus response
Sara E Davies (EAF) Feb 16, 2020
To better prepare for future outbreaks, it is necessary to build channels of trust, communication and information-sharing in peacetime, and increased investment in equitable health systems to support outbreak containment measures.

OPEC Underestimates China Virus
Julian Lee (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 22, 2020
The oil cartel should get realistic about the potential impact the Covid-19 virus will have on China's economy, and the rest of the world.

Beverage market disruptions and their trade consequences
Kym Anderson (VoxEU) Feb 16, 2020
Global alcoholic beverage markets have changed dramatically in recent years due to globalisation, income growth in emerging economies, changes in individual preferences, policy initiatives to curb socially harmful drinking, and, in particular, the dual trade policy shocks of Brexit and the US's unilaterally imposed discriminatory tariffs. This column provides an overview of the major trends and projects the possible effects of Brexit and the US tariffs on the global alcohol market. It concludes that both shocks would reduce world trade in wine. Even countries not targeted by US tariffs can be worse off if those tariffs sufficiently reduce global consumption.

Argentina needs a plan for investment-led growth
FT View Feb 17, 2020
Debt talks are unlikely to succeed without a strategy for economic revival.

Central banks' influence on economies is diminishing
Dario Perkins (FT) Feb 17, 2020
Monetary policy cannot protect us from each and every shock.

Why the US is losing its war against Huawei
David P. Goldman (AT) Feb 17, 2020
Huge intelligence failure has compounded Pentagon's flip-flop policy and led to key allies refusing to heed Trump's plea to avoid tech giant's 5G system.

Recent euro-area house price increases are dissimilar to earlier housing booms
Zsolt Darvas, Marta Domínguez-Jiménez and Guntram B. Wolff (Bruegel) Feb 17, 2020
Current housing markets relative to those pre-crisis seem to be far less driven by mortgage credit, and the size of the construction sector has not increased. This is possibly good news for financial stability because an eventual house price correction would transmit less into mortgage defaults and corrections in economic activity.

Epidemic tests China's supply chain dominance
Alicia García-Herrero (Bruegel) Feb 17, 2020
Much has been written on the Wuhan coronavirus that causes the respiratory disease Covid-19, but very little is known yet about its impact on the global economy and, in particular, the global value chain. Still, one thing is clear: The shock is bigger than that caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), for the simple reason that China is much more important for the global economy than it was then.

Japan's GDP shrinks dramatically after a tax rise and a typhoon
Economist Feb 17, 2020
Abe Shinzo has repeated his worst economic blunder by increasing the consumption tax for a second time.

The White Swans of 2020
Nouriel Roubini (Project Syndicate) Feb 17, 2020
Financial markets remain blissfully in denial of the many predictable global crises that could come to a head this year, particularly in the months before the US presidential election. In addition to the increasingly obvious risks associated with climate change, at least four countries want to destabilize the US from within.

Social Democracy Beats Democratic Socialism
Daron Acemoglu (Project Syndicate) Feb 17, 2020
Now that US Senator Bernie Sanders has emerged as a leading contender for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination, his brand of democratic socialism warrants closer scrutiny. Simply put, it is neither a close approximation of the "Nordic model" that Sanders often invokes nor a solution to what ails the American economy.

The Monetarist Fantasy Is Over
Robert Skidelsky (Project Syndicate) Feb 17, 2020
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, determined to overcome Treasury resistance to his vast spending ambitions, has ousted Chancellor of the Exchequer Sajid Javid. But Johnson's latest coup also is indicative of a global shift from monetary to fiscal policy.

Eight things policymakers should know about foreign direct investment
Beata Javorcik (VoxDev) Feb 17, 2020
Policymakers in developing countries often clash over the impact of foreign direct investment, but what does the existing literature tell us?

Bilateral trade imbalances: Hidden causes and hidden effects
Alejandro Cunat and Robert Zymek (VoxEU) Feb 17, 2020
Most countries exhibit large variation in bilateral trade balances across their trade partners. This column argues that it is possible to use gravity trade models to describe the sources of this variation with greater clarity, but that a large portion of the variation still remains poorly understood. It also shows that tariffs imposed during the US-China trade war will reduce the US-China trade deficit in the long run, but only by worsening the US trade balance with other trade partners almost one-for-one.

Political risk and exchange rates: The lessons of Brexit
Paolo Manasse, Graziano Moramarco, and Giulio Trigilia (VoxEU) Feb 17, 2020
The pound depreciated overnight by about 7% against the euro and other main currencies following the Leave victory in the UK's EU referendum, suggesting that the markets expected Brexit to harm the British economy. Yet currency markets hailed the overwhelming victory of Brexiter Boris Johnson's Conservative Party in the 2019 general election with a 2% appreciation of the pound. This column argues that this apparent contradiction can be explained by disentangling the effects that politics has on exchange rate expectations and a political risk premium.

Is Trump Putting U.S.-India Partnership at Risk Ahead of Visit?
Keith Johnson (FP) Feb 17, 2020
By haggling over tiny trade issues, experts worry the Trump administration could weaken efforts to woo India as a strategic partner.

'Vietnamisation' push seeks national champions
John Reed (FT) Feb 18, 2020
Hanoi's promotion of domestic companies has natural limits.

We are rethinking our advice to emerging markets
Kristalina Georgieva (FT) Feb 18, 2020
We need to understand better how various policy options interact.

Last chance for the climate transition
Martin Wolf (FT) Feb 18, 2020
Achieving zero emissions by 2050 would require unprecedented global co-operation.

Pessimistic Outlook in Russia Slows Investment, and the Economy
Andrew E. Kramer (NYT) Feb 18, 2020
Growth has slowed to well below the global average as economists point to low spending by the government and the private sector.

Political Lobbying on Steel Tariffs
WSJ Feb 18, 2020
Ten House Members oppose this exclusion request, but 14 favor it.

Global Insurance Pricing Continues to Increase in Fourth Quarter 2019
Dean Klisura (Brink) Feb 18, 2020
Global commercial insurance prices rose by 11%, on average, in the fourth quarter of 2019, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of increases, according to the Marsh Global Insurance Market Index. Notably, the highest average increases were in financial and professional liability, which increased by 18%.

The Economic Hit From Coronavirus Is All in Your Mind
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg View) Feb 18, 2020
Psychology can be more powerful than facts when it comes to the impact of an epidemic.

Adapting to a Fast-Forward World
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Project Syndicate) Feb 18, 2020
The world is going through a period of accelerating change, as four secular developments illustrate. Firms and governments must make timely adjustments, not only to their business models and operational approaches, but also to both their tactical and strategic mindsets.

Trump's "Currency Manipulation" Con
Anne O. Krueger (Project Syndicate) Feb 18, 2020
The long-awaited "phase one" deal between the United States and China has not ended US trade warfare. Instead, President Donald Trump's administration has devised yet another tool with which to tilt the playing field against foreign competitors, all but ensuring that damaging and unnecessary trade conflicts will continue.

The euro: A transfer union from the start
Enrico Perotti and Oscar Soons (VoxEU) Feb 18, 2020
A monetary union among diverse economies enhances trade and financial integration, but also has redistributive effects. The column argues that the euro led to implicit devaluations and revaluations, boosting the productive incentives and fiscal capacity of strong members at the cost of others. The euro was thus a transfer union from the start, with implicit flows from the periphery to the core.

Coronavirus Begins to Spread Economic Gloom Worldwide
Keith Johnson (FP) Feb 18, 2020
Supply chain disruptions are upsetting markets globally, but especially in Asia.

The New Stone Soup
Mary C. Daly (FRBSF Econ Letter) Feb 18, 2020
Countries around the globe face slow growth, low real interest rates, and persistently low inflation. This makes economies less resilient and less able to offset everyday shocks with traditional tools. Policymakers must actively look for outside perspectives and be courageous enough to take action in times of uncertainty.

The compelling case to refocus EU spending
FT View Feb 19, 2020
National capitals should lead way in raising funding for climate, defence and research.

The humbling of Goldman Sachs
Jonathan Guthrie (FT) Feb 19, 2020
Fears that nothing would change after the financial crisis turned out to be unfounded.

Corruption must be fought across Europe or not at all
Martin Sandbu (FT) Feb 19, 2020
To address the rule of law crisis, Europeans must see it as a broader crisis of governance.

Can high-pressure macro stimulus yield the productivity growth envisioned by Trump?
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Zhiyao (Lucy) Lu (PIIE) Feb 19, 2020
Lagging productivity growth, defined as economic output per hour worked, ranks among the serious problems impeding economic expansion in the US and other advanced economies. Many economists advocate high-pressure macroeconomic policy—in the form of large federal deficits and low (2 percent or less) interest rates. But do such policies, which can translate into faster job creation, actually spur productivity growth, which is a major factor in whether wages rise? The evidence presented here suggests that high-pressure macroeconomic policies make only a small contribution.

Why the US Trade Agreement Will Slow China's Economy
Alicia Herrero (Brink) Feb 19, 2020
The response of the global financial markets to the trade agreement reached between the United States and China has been very positive, probably excessively so. The deal is an interim agreement only, oversold by both parties and with more losers than winners.

Europe may be the world's AI referee, but referees don't win
Guntram B. Wolff (Bruegel) Feb 19, 2020
The EU needs to invest in homegrown technology.

What is fuelling the Dutch house price boom?
Sybrand Brekelmans (Bruegel) Feb 19, 2020
Housing prices have been rising fast in the West of the Netherlands in the last five years. However, mortgages outstanding have remained flat, raising the question of what has driven the increase. Evidence suggests that housing supply constraints have, this time around, played a role in pushing the house prices up.

Finding Solid Footing for the Global Economy
Kristalina Georgieva (IMF) Feb 19, 2020
Working together, we can take the necessary steps to reduce uncertainty and put the global economy on more solid footing.

The Greek Tragedy of America and International Finance
Charles Kenny (CGD) Feb 19, 2020
Increasingly, Washington views those organizations as weapons in the global struggle for the neoliberal economic model against China's state-led approach to development.

Christine Lagarde Has a Troubling Ambition
Ferdinando Giugliano (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 19, 2020
The ECB already does what it can in the climate fight. Skewing its bond purchases against "non-virtuous" companies would set a terrible precedent.

Is a Strong Economy Enough to Re-Elect Trump?
Michael J. Boskin (Project Syndicate) Feb 19, 2020
The odds of an economic downturn in the US this year remain low, which means that US President Donald Trump's prospects for re-election in November are strong. But with an approval rating still below 50%, Trump will have to navigate a difficult field of swing states and cross his fingers that the Democrats are hobbled by infighting.

Fossil-Fuel Exporters Must Rethink Monetary Policy
Rabah Arezki (Project Syndicate) Feb 19, 2020
In the face of the challenge posed by climate change, the focus of monetary policy often seems very short term. Central bankers must break this "curse of horizons" and take decisive steps to address fossil-fuel-related risks.

The Impact of Intranational Trade Barriers on Exports: Evidence from a Nationwide VAT Rebate Reform in China
Jie Bai and Jiahua Liu (VoxChina) Feb 19, 2020
It is well known that various forms of non-tariff trade barriers exist within a country. Empirically, it is difficult to measure these barriers as they can take many forms. We take advantage of a nationwide VAT rebate policy reform in China as a natural experiment to identify the existence of these intranational barriers due to local protectionism and study the impact on exports and exporting firms. As a result of shifting tax rebate burden, the reform leads to a greater incentive of the provincial governments to block the domestic flow of non-local goods to local export intermediaries. We develop an open-economy heterogenous firm model that incorporates multiple domestic regions and multiple exporting technologies, including the intermediary sector. Consistent with the model's predictions, we find that rising local protectionism leads to a reduction in interprovincial trade, more "inward-looking" sourcing behavior of local intermediaries, and a reduction in manufacturing exports. Analysis using micro firm-level data further shows that private companies with greater baseline reliance on export intermediaries are more adversely affected.

Leveraging posterity's prosperity
Laurence Kotlikoff (VoxEU) Feb 19, 2020
The US has spent the entire post-war period running a massive and ever-growing Ponzi scheme that takes from the young and gives to the old. This column discusses how the scheme has been and is being run by expanding take-as-you-go-financed Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid systems, by running huge official deficits, and by imposing a larger share of taxes on the young and a smaller share on the old. Take as you go, whether done on or off the books, has done precisely as theoretically predicted – reduced the US's national saving rate from 13% in the 1950s and 1960s to 3% in the last two decades. This underlies, in large part, a commensurate drop in the domestic investment rate, which was also 13% between 1950 and 1969 and is now running at 4%. The textbook predicted consequence? Lower median labour productivity and median real wage growth.

People's Bank of China will help the country recover quickly from coronavirus
Chen Yulu (FT) Feb 20, 2020
Deputy governor: central bank has ample policy room to stabilise the economy.

African leaders must invest in engineers to drive growth
Mustafa Shehu (FT) Feb 20, 2020
The continent cannot fulfil its potential without training technicians to tackle its infrastructure shortfall.

Debt markets should not ignore Lebanon stand-off
Tommy Stubbington (FT) Feb 20, 2020
Plunge in bonds this week suggests default could be imminent.

Four ideas for IMF head Kristalina Georgieva
Jan Dehn (FT) Feb 20, 2020
Fund could spur growth in emerging markets by prioritising pension, regulatory and index reform.

India should really listen to foreign bidders for its banks
Henny Sender (FT) Feb 20, 2020
Distressed specialists are circling Yes Bank, the fourth-largest private sector lender.

Why Sweden ditched its negative rate experiment
Richard Milne and Martin Arnold (FT) Feb 20, 2020
Results of the Riksbank's 5-year trial are being scrutinised by the world's leading central banks.

The trade deficit is soaring under Trump — and that's a good thing
Fareed Zakaria (WP) Feb 20, 2020
The White House trade policy has been an enormously costly exercise to solve a problem that isn't really a problem.

Business and the next recession
Economist Feb 20, 2020
When economies change, so do recessions. What will the next one look like?

Healing the rift in Europe's single currency
Economist Feb 20, 2020
The central bank is one of Germany's most trusted institutions.

Unintended consequences: Trump and Warren's bipartisan plan for the US dollar
Adam Triggs and Warwick J. McKibbin (Brookings) Feb 20, 2020
Republicans and Democrats didn't agree on much in 2019, with one exception: that a high U.S. dollar is bad for America. President Trump repeatedly called on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to devalue the dollar, while presidential hopeful Senator Elizabeth Warren, promised to "produce a currency value that's better for our workers and our industries."

Why the US Trade Agreement will slow China's economy
Alicia García-Herrero (Bruegel) Feb 20, 2020
The response of the global financial markets to the trade agreement reached between the United States and China has been very positive, probably excessively so given the relatively limited size of the agreement reached.

Inflation targets: revising the European Central Bank's monetary framework
Maria Demertzis and Nicola Viegi (Bruegel) Feb 20, 2020
The ECB is looking to evaluate whether its definition of price stability is effective in helping anchor inflation expectations.

IMF, Argentina Re-Engage in Crucial Test of Resolve
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 20, 2020
Both sides must work with private creditors to address a complex debt problem.

Watch Europe's Weakest Banks Get Left Behind
Ferdinando Giugliano (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 20, 2020
Intesa's surprise bid for Italian rival Ubi highlights just how balkanized the EU's banking industry remains.

Argentina's Government Needs to Speak With One Voice on Debt
Mac Margolis (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 20, 2020
Resolving its economic crisis requires a plan, not a public passion play.

The Rich World Must Take Responsibility for Its Carbon Footprint
Adair Turner (Project Syndicate) Feb 20, 2020
China and other developing economies are instinctively wary of developed-country proposals to combine domestic carbon prices with "carbon tariffs" imposed on imported goods. But such policies may be the only way for rich-world consumers to take responsibility for their carbon footprint in other countries.

All Eyes on South Korea
Jim O'Neill (Project Syndicate) Feb 20, 2020
Now that the South Korean blockbuster Parasite has taken home the Oscar for Best Picture, many around the world are eagerly searching for more examples of South Korean coolness. They should look to the South Korean economy, which offers valuable lessons for achieving sustainable, inclusive growth.

The End of the EU's Brexit Bounce
Mark Leonard (Project Syndicate) Feb 20, 2020
After years of watching the United Kingdom muddle through a political crisis while enjoying an unprecedented level of unity among themselves, Europeans now must prepare for darker days. Negotiations over the future UK-EU relationship will inevitably divide Europeans and offer fodder to Euroskeptics.

Reform or Revolution
Daniel Chirot (Project Syndicate) Feb 20, 2020
A unifying thread of modern revolutions is that societies become politically so divided only after a long period in which it is increasingly clear that reforms are necessary, but those in power, oblivious to how dire the situation has become, block the measures that could save the regime.

Populism, political risk and the economy: What we can learn from the Italian experience
Pierluigi Balduzzi, Emanuele Brancati, Marco Brianti, and Fabio Schiantarelli (VoxEU) Feb 20, 2020
The effects of political uncertainty can be captured in the spread of sovereign credit default swaps. This column shows how the rise of populist movements in Italy following the Global Crisis and sovereign debt crisis can be traced within the country's contract price levels, and also highlights the impacts on the real economy. Italy has been an ideal laboratory to explore and learn about the economic consequences of political risk shocks, and the instability there means this is likely to continue to be the case in the future.

Après Brexit
Ferdinand Mount (LRB) Feb 20, 2020
So far, in the first few days of actual Brexit, the Johnson government has ganged up with the EU on the three hottest issues of the day. And there is plenty more to come.

Japan - Feeling Blue
Erik Nelson and Jen Licis (WF) Feb 20, 2020
Recent Japanese data have underperformed expectations, suggesting that the economy is taking longer than anticipated to recover from the consumption tax hike and typhoon in October.

The virus crisis and the decoupling of global trade
FT View Feb 21, 2020
Coronavirus succeeds where politicians failed to curtail globalisation.

'Crazy' stocks keep driving higher despite fears
Robin Wigglesworth (FT) Feb 21, 2020
Continuing surge in equities reflects hopes that coronavirus will be contained.

The Liberal Economists Behind the Wealth Tax Debate
Jim Tankersley and Ben Casselman (NYT) Feb 21, 2020
Gabriel Zucman and Emmanuel Saez have crashed the Democratic primary with their idea — and angered some economists.

Is Denmark the new "American dream"?
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE) Feb 21, 2020
If there was an undisputed winner in the Democratic presidential debate on February 19, it was…Denmark! Its star turn came first when presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg stated flat out that the "Number One place to live out the American dream right now is Denmark," because of the upward mobility of its citizens. Meanwhile, Senator Bernie Sanders once again invoked universal health care and other benefits as comparable to "what goes on in co

To move the needle on ending extreme poverty, focus on rural areas
Homi Kharas, Constanza Di Nucci, Kristofer Hamel, and Baldwin Tong (Brookings) Feb 21, 2020
The considerable gains made worldwide in poverty reduction over the last 10 years have been widely recognized. And indeed, in a year when China aspires to complete its 40-year project of lifting some 770 million people across the poverty line, it is clear that a greater proportion of the human population is wealthier today than at any other moment in history.

Maybe Global Supply Chains Were a Bad Idea
Brooke Sutherland (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 21, 2020
The coronavirus outbreak exposes the peril of far-flung parts networks and the risk of paralysis.

The Key to Bitcoin's Future: Inflation
Noah Smith (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 21, 2020
If the cryptocurrency is going to be used as widely as dollars, its fans must abandon the dream of deflationary digital gold.

Markets Expect a Rate Cut the Fed May Not Deliver
Tim Duy (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 21, 2020
Yes, inflation rates are lower than the central bank desires, but there are ways it can fix that without lowering borrowing costs.

Has Australia's Luck Run Out?
Carl Bildt (Project Syndicate) Feb 21, 2020
After three decades of surfing on a wave of Chinese demand for its coal and other resources, Australia is now confronting a dual crisis that will eventually come to define the twenty-first century. One way or another, climate change and China's rise will force policymakers everywhere to reckon with trade-offs they have long chosen to ignore.

Brexit's Stealthy Rationality
Yanis Varoufakis (Project Syndicate) Feb 21, 2020
The motives and thinking behind Brexit were even less worthy than those behind US President Richard Nixon's move in 1971 to ditch the Bretton Woods system. But, as with the "Nixon shock," there is a singular underlying historical factor that explains Brexit.

Violence Against Women Is Blocking Development
Tlaleng Mofokeng (Project Syndicate) Feb 21, 2020
Modern development strategies often recognize the pivotal importance of enabling women to fulfill their potential and contribute effectively to their economies. Yet they fail to recognize the need for concerted action to protect women from violence, and uphold the rights of victims. They are thus grossly inadequate.

The Making of the Digital Revolution
William H. Janeway (Project Syndicate) Feb 21, 2020
While the public tends to regard venture capital as the shadowy and selective money behind today's overvalued tech startups, VC has actually been at the forefront of innovation for 200 years. Like the American state, it is an essential ingredient of the secret sauce of American capitalism.

Coronavirus may be worse than Wall St is wagering
Megan Greene (FT) Feb 22, 2020
If the outbreak turns out to be disruptive, here's how to immunise your portfolio.

It is too much to hope for a big bounce in EM
Jonathan Wheatley (FT) Feb 22, 2020
A selective approach is likely to provide better results for investors.

Rishi Sunak's fiscal expansion is long overdue
Gavyn Davies (FT) Feb 23, 2020
Even after a large stimulus, the UK's public finances would be healthier than the US's.

Coronavirus is speeding up decoupling
Rana Foroohar (FT) Feb 23, 2020
Beijing's opacity in handling the epidemic highlights the risks of doing business in China.

Philippines: Duterte takes aim at the oligarchs
John Reed (FT) Feb 23, 2020
The president has turned his populist fire on big business, but is he attacking corporate greed or political opponents?

Modi Bashes Nehru, but Rejects Only His Good Ideas
Jairaj Devadiga (WSJ) Feb 23, 2020
He's copied the socialist's penchant for tariffs and regulations, shedding jobs and slowing growth.

Trump is hooked on deficits
Robert Samuelson (WP) Feb 23, 2020
The president and his economists claim their policies have restored dynamic growth. A bigger cause is enormous deficit spending.

The United Kingdom's uncertain post-Brexit economic relations with Asia
David Vines (EAF) Feb 23, 2020
Britain wants to continue the unimpeded access to European markets which it possessed in the Single Market. But this will only be possible if Britain subscribes to the freedoms and standards coming from the Single Market.

Fund managers need to look again at infrastructure
Julien Demeulemeester (FT) Feb 24, 2020
The 'new normal' of low rates, flat yield curves and subdued returns is here to stay.

The daunting task of decarbonising investment portfolios
Amin Rajan (FT) Feb 24, 2020
Slow progress on carbon pricing keeps investors in the dark.

Markets face fresh jolt of coronavirus nerves
Katie Martin (FT) Feb 24, 2020
Investor optimism over the impact of the health crisis has collided with reality.

BlackRock's black box: the tech hub of modern finance
Richard Henderson and Owen Walker (FT) Feb 24, 2020
Used by rival fund managers, the reach of the Aladdin platform raises possible conflicts of interest.

Will Japan be next to adopt digital currency?
Paul Muir (AT) Feb 24, 2020
Officials discuss impact of following China's lead. Meanwhile, blockchain gets lukewarm reception in Kyev.

How to Solve America's Giant Innovation Imbalance
Robert Atkinson (Brink) Feb 24, 2020
The future of developed economies lies in advanced innovation industries — both in new tech industries and in many traditional industries that are being transformed by technology. Yet rather than growing together, American's metros have been growing apart. What is needed to transform "heartland" metros into self-sustaining innovation growth centers.

When Development Aid Goes Awry
Noah Smith (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 24, 2020
Elites in developing countries are pocketing funds meant to fight poverty, a new analysis suggests.

Thailand Gives Investors a Reason to Cut and Run
Clara Ferreira Marques (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 24, 2020
The ban on an opposition party is a Pyrrhic victory for the government as stocks sink into a bear market.

Stock-Market Bubble Fears Are Greatly Overblown
Barry Ritholtz (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 24, 2020
Despite some pockets of excess, valuations today are nothing like those of the dot-com era.

The Fed Needs to Cut Rates Now
Narayana Kocherlakota (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 24, 2020
Coronavirus poses a risk to global growth, and a reduction would be a cheap insurance policy.

The ECB Is in For a Coronavirus Shocker
Ferdinando Giugliano (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 24, 2020
It's time for euro-area policy makers to take the threat of the new coronavirus seriously in spite of encouraging economic signs in February.

When China Sneezes
Stephen S. Roach (Project Syndicate) Feb 24, 2020
The COVID-19 outbreak has hit at a time of much greater economic vulnerability than in 2003, during the SARS outbreak, and China's share of world output has more than doubled since then. With other major economies already struggling, the risk of outright global recession in the first half of 2020 seems like a distinct possibility.

Will the Coronavirus Trigger a Global Recession?
Jeffrey Frankel (Project Syndicate) Feb 24, 2020
The COVID-19 outbreak seems to have raised the odds of a global recession dramatically. But even if no downturn materializes in the near term, the outbreak, together with US President Donald Trump's trade policy, may herald the end of the era when steadily rising international trade buttressed global peace and prosperity.

Africa Isn't Ready for Currency Unions
Célestin Monga (Project Syndicate) Feb 24, 2020
West African leaders plan to create a new currency to replace the CFA franc, created by France 75 years ago. But because the CFA franc zone's 14 countries do not meet the economic criteria for joining a monetary union, the proposed eco zone will be a challenging, risky, and possibly painful venture for all involved.

Beyond Abenomics
Akira Kawamoto (Project Syndicate) Feb 24, 2020
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's government has transformed Japanese monetary and fiscal policy over the last seven years. But the Abenomics experiment shows that enhancing demand is not enough to boost economic growth when an economy also faces massive supply-side constraints.

Globalisation: What's at stake for central banks
Simone Arrigoni, Roland Beck, Michele Ca' Zorzi, and Livio Stracca (VoxEU) Feb 24, 2020
Governments are increasingly confronted with the task of preserving the positive effects of increased global integration while also managing their manifold side effects. This column looks at the effects of globalisation on inflation and financial stability and the role for central banks. It concludes that central banks are far from immune from the forces of globalisation and should continue to evolve and reassess their role and instruments in a changing world. Governments are increasingly confronted with the task of preserving the positive effects of increased global integration while also managing their manifold side effects. This column looks at the effects of globalisation on inflation and financial stability and the role for central banks. It concludes that central banks are far from immune from the forces of globalisation and should continue to evolve and reassess their role and instruments in a changing world.

EU bankruptcy reform requires more scrutiny
Maryam Malakotipour, Enrico Perotti, and Rolef de Weijs (VoxEU) Feb 24, 2020
In 2019 the EU published its directive on bankruptcy reform, which national parliaments must now consider. This column argues the Relative Priority Rule that the reforms propose is unfair, would reduce financial stability, and may lead to a regulatory race to the bottom. The rule would aggravate risk-taking because returns would be captured by shareholders while losses would be borne by unsecured creditors. In 2019 the EU published its directive on bankruptcy reform, which national parliaments must now consider. This column argues the Relative Priority Rule that the reforms propose is unfair, would reduce financial stability, and may lead to a regulatory race to the bottom. The rule would aggravate risk-taking because returns would be captured by shareholders while losses would be borne by unsecured creditors.

Don't blame it on the machines: Robots and employment in Europe
David Klenert, Enrique Fernández-Macías, and José-Ignacio Antón (VoxEU) Feb 24, 2020
Opinion polls reveal that Europeans are greatly concerned about the economic consequences of advanced technologies, but our understanding of this relationship is still incomplete. This column assesses the impact of one such technology – industrial robots – on employment in Europe over the last two decades. Combining industry-level data on employment with data on robot adoption, it finds that robot use is linked to a small but significant increase in employment. Contrary to some previous studies, it does not find evidence of robots reducing the share of low-skill workers across Europe.

Beyond Deutsche: U.S. Banks Also Implicated in Dubious Partnerships Abroad
Cristina Maza (FP) Feb 24, 2020
Deutsche Bank is just one of many big institutions—including U.S. banks—that haven't adequately evaluated dubious investors making large transactions.

More Thoughts on COVID-19 Supply Chain Disruptions
Jay H. Bryson and Shannon Seery (WF) Feb 24, 2020
COVID-19 has spread outside of China, which presents more risk to American supply chains. The economically important U.S. transportation equipment industry has high exposure as well.

Will COVID-19 Force the Fed's Hand?
Jay H. Bryson (WF) Feb 24, 2020
The rapid spread in recent days of COVID-19 has led market participants to the conclusion that the FOMC will be forced to ease policy. As of this writing, the market is fully priced for a 25 bps rate cut by the June 10 FOMC meeting and another 25 bps rate cut by the November 5 meeting. Will the Fed cut rates?

Is the Risk of the Lower Bound Reducing Inflation?
Robert Amano, Thomas J. Carter, and Sylvain Leduc (FRBSF Econ Letter) Feb 24, 2020
U.S. inflation has remained below the Fed's 2% goal for over 10 years, averaging about 1.5%. One contributing factor may be the impact from a higher probability of future monetary policy being constrained by the effective lower bound on interest rates. Model simulations suggest that this higher risk of hitting the lower bound may lead to lower expectations for future inflation, which in turn reduces inflation compensation for investors. The higher risk may also change household and business spending and pricing behavior. Taken together, these effects contribute to weaker inflation.

Breaking contracts over coronavirus is harder than it sounds
Jingzhou Tao (FT) Feb 25, 2020
The rules around force majeure are murky and complicated by government actions.

Coronavirus and politics wake up sleepy markets
Philip Stafford (FT) Feb 25, 2020
Vix index suggests US election will replace contagion crisis as chief investor worry.

Piketty's 'Capital and Ideology': scholarship without solutions
Raghuram Rajan (FT) Feb 25, 2020
The French economist's data-driven analysis of inequality offers a flawed prospectus for change.

Markets must listen to central bankers' green conversion
Karen Ward (FT) Feb 25, 2020
Get set for a reorientation, and perhaps an extension, of asset purchase programmes.

US offers allies energy investment without strings
Dan Brouillette and Adam Boehler (FT) Feb 25, 2020
Washington provides an alternative to state-led financing from Beijing and Moscow.

Economy Faces a Coronavirus Challenge as Markets Swoon
Jeanna Smialek (NYT) Feb 25, 2020
Central bankers and administration officials alike are unsure how the virus will affect American economic growth.

'Not Just an Italian Problem': Coronavirus Threatens Europe's Economy
Peter S. Goodman and Aaron H. Maines (NYT) Feb 25, 2020
The spread of the deadly epidemic to Europe's fourth-largest economy has heightened fears of disruption in the global supply chain.

This Is the Impact of the Coronavirus on Business
Richard Smith-Bingham and Kavitha Hariharan (Brink) Feb 25, 2020
The coronavirus disease — an epidemic that could become a global pandemic — emerged in a densely populated manufacturing and transport hub in central China and has since spread to 29 other countries and regions (as of February 20). With tens of millions of workers now in quarantine and parts in short supply, China is struggling to get economic activity back on track. How the coronavirus is impacting businesses.

How Fast Can a Virus Destroy a Supply Chain?
Tyler Cowen (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 25, 2020
Just-in-time networks are very efficient but extremely fragile.

How India Can Get Growth Back on Track
Noah Smith (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 25, 2020
Banks need help cleaning up their balance sheets now, but a long-term recovery requires more urbanization.

Give Pandemic Bonds a Chance
Aaron Brown (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 25, 2020
The securities are hardly a gimmick stunt that divert scarce health-care dollars to financial markets.

Central Banks Seek an Edge in a Game They Can't Win
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 25, 2020
The old strategies aren't working as well anymore because the board has changed.

Coronavirus Will Hammer Iran's Economy
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 25, 2020
The contagion has done what American economic sanctions could not: shut down non-oil exports.

The Clock Runs Out on Malaysia's New Beginning
Andy Mukherjee (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 25, 2020
Turmoil from Mahathir's resignation will shake up everything except the tired economy.

Coronavirus Freaked Markets, Not the Fed
Bill Dudley (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 25, 2020
The central bank is being measured, but would move up plans to cut rates if needed.

Drama and Scandal Are Totally Normal at Europe's Banks
Elisa Martinuzzi (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 25, 2020
European lenders appear to have a problem in their boardrooms, as shown by the troubles at HSBC, Credit Suisse, Barclays and Santander.

The New Normal Should Be Cashless
Willem H. Buiter (Project Syndicate) Feb 25, 2020
The central bankers and economic policymakers who doubt that deep negative interest rates would prove effective in the next recession have not given that policy a fair chance. The fact is that in an environment of persistently low inflation and negative nominal interest rates, we need to rethink the effective lower bound entirely.

A Radical Way Out of the EU Budget Maze
Jean Pisani-Ferry (Project Syndicate) Feb 25, 2020
It can be tempting to treat European budgetary discussions as a fairly inconsequential distributional game. But with the EU's role increasingly focused on the provision of public goods, in accordance with its values and priorities, this would be a mistake.

The Divine Right of Populists
Nicholas Reed Langen (Project Syndicate) Feb 25, 2020
Like US President Donald Trump, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson owes his political success and hold on power to the idea of a fully sovereign executive. Advanced most forcefully by the German jurist Carl Schmitt to defend the Third Reich, this line of thinking threatens to render the world's two oldest democracies unrecognizable.

Brexit uncertainty has fallen since the UK general election
Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Scarlet Chen, Paul Mizen, and Pawel Smietanka (VoxEU) Feb 25, 2020
After months of political stalemate, Boris Johnson's decisive victory in the December UK general election cleared the way for the UK to leave the EU. This column uses data from the Decision Maker Panel, a monthly survey of CFOs from around 3,000 UK businesses, to show that Brexit-related uncertainty has fallen since the election. The fall in uncertainty has been larger among more domestically focused businesses, however, and substantial uncertainty remains around the future trading relationship between the UK and the EU. There are some signs that this fall in uncertainty may lead to a modest pickup in investment, but it is still early days.

Monetary policy and bank stability
Ugo Albertazzi, Francesca Barbiero, David Marques-Ibanez, Alexander Popov, Costanza Rodriguez d'Acri, and Thomas Vlassopoulos (VoxEU) Feb 25, 2020
The response of major central banks to the Global Crisis has rekindled the debate on the interactions between monetary policy and financial stability. This column reviews empirical evidence on how monetary policy affects bank stability, focusing on unconventional monetary policy measures deployed by the ECB during the crisis. It argues that by stabilising the economy and averting a systemic crisis, these measures helped shore up stability, with the positive effects outweighing the adverse spillovers on banks' intermediation capacity and risk-taking. However, such measures may need to be complemented with counterbalancing actions that go beyond monetary policy.

The declining elasticity of US housing supply
Knut Aastveit, Bruno Albuquerque, and André Kallåk Anundsen (VoxEU) Feb 25, 2020
Housing supply elasticities can help explain why house prices differ across locations. This column uses a rich dataset and a novel identification method to show that US housing supply has become less elastic since the Global Crisis, with bigger declines in places where land-use regulation has tightened most and in areas that had larger price declines during the crisis. This new lower elasticity means US house prices should be more sensitive to changes in demand than before the crisis.

As the Coronavirus Spreads, Stocks Fall Again and the White House Frets About a Black Swan
John Cassidy (New Yorker) Feb 25, 2020
The reality is that nobody really knows how severe the coronavirus health crisis will become or what impact it ultimately will have on the vast U.S. economy.

COVID-19: Where Are the Dominoes in the U.S. Supply Chain?
Jay H. Bryson and Shannon Seery (WF) Feb 25, 2020
Foreign disruptions could adversely affect the chemical products and the transportation equipment industries, which are both important cogs in the United States supply chain.

Putin needs to shake up the CEOs who run Russia's economy
Henry Foy (FT) Feb 26, 2020
Changing the old guard at the top of state-owned companies could help lacklustre economy.

Markets are too complacent about virus
Nouriel Roubini (FT) Feb 26, 2020
Assumption after assumption about the impact of the outbreak has been proven wrong.

India's twin economic and political crises
Martin Wolf (FT) Feb 26, 2020
The growth slowdown has been dramatic, while politics takes an aggressively illiberal turn.

Lebanon's economic crisis requires an urgent decision on IMF aid
David Gardner (FT) Feb 26, 2020
The country is trapped in a full-scale emergency that could unravel social bonds.

Asia can overtake the west in sustainable investing
Helene Li (FT) Feb 26, 2020
Investors and the financial industry can select opportunities based on ESG impact.

Has the bull market run out of puff?
Simon Edelsten (FT) Feb 26, 2020
The global equity market has reached new highs, but has not exceeded previous ratios against cash flows.

EU 'frugals' will struggle to sustain hardline budget stance
Martin Sandbu (FT) Feb 26, 2020
Countries keen to rein in spending face tensions with green coalitions.

The Fed Can't Wait to Respond to the Coronavirus
Kevin Warsh (WSJ) Feb 26, 2020
The pandemic is a threat to the global economy. U.S. central bankers should lead a global response.

Investors flee amid pandemic fears
Umesh Desai (AT) Feb 26, 2020
Stocks and futures trashed; government bonds in across the board rally.

Chile's Economy Is Holding On Despite Recent Upheaval
Peter Schechter (Brink) Feb 26, 2020
Chile is experiencing a moment of national pessimism that counters its reputation as Latin America's capitalist success story. Its recent protests have proven that political dynamics can shift in an instant. And President Sebastián Piñera has put Chile on track for a divisive constitutional reform process starting in April.

US: Demography Is Not Political Destiny
David Apgar (Globalist) Feb 26, 2020
Are Republicans really doomed electorally because of the demographic changes underway in the United States?

Hong Kong Shifts Aim From the Virus to Property
Andy Mukherjee (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 26, 2020
The budget looks less focused on fighting the outbreak than on buoying the real estate market.

The Challenges of Argentina's Debt Renegotiation
José Antonio Ocampo (Project Syndicate) Feb 26, 2020
By affirming that Argentina's public-sector debt is unsustainable, the International Monetary Fund has taken a critical step toward resolving the country's long-running crisis. Moving forward, one hopes that the Fund will realize its own role in the latest crisis and follow its own advice on when to pursue capital-market liberalization.

Are Independent Central Banks Passé?
Howard Davies (Project Syndicate) Feb 26, 2020
The fear among monetary policymakers that governments will reassert control over interest rates is exaggerated. Instead of bemoaning the surge of comment and challenge, central banks need to raise their game, enhance their transparency, and get better at explaining and justifying their actions and decisions.

China's COVID-19 Moment
Andrew Sheng and Xiao Geng (Project Syndicate) Feb 26, 2020
Even when the coronavirus is contained, escalating geopolitical rivalries, technological disruption, climate change, and the likelihood of new pandemics loom. So, beyond tackling the current crisis, China's government should be preparing to implement resilience-building reforms.

To Protect Democracy, Reform It
Andrés Velasco (Project Syndicate) Feb 26, 2020
We vote every four or so years for candidates about whom we know little, in a process mediated by political parties, which are often less than fully democratic themselves. No wonder, then, that more than half of respondents in 27 countries say they are dissatisfied with democracy.

The Brexit vote, productivity growth and macroeconomic adjustments in the UK
Ben Broadbent, Federico Di Pace, Thomas Drechsel, Richard Harrison, and Silvana Tenreyro (VoxEU) Feb 26, 2020
The UK economy has experienced significant macroeconomic adjustments following the 2016 referendum on its withdrawal from the EU. This column documents these macroeconomic adjustments systematically and demonstrates that the effects of the referendum result on the UK economy can be conceptualised as news about a future slowdown in tradable productivity growth.

How Will Coronavirus Impact China in the Long Term?
Arthur R. Kroeber, Lindsey Ford, Roselyn Hsueh & Kiki Tianqi Zhao (ChinaFile) Feb 26, 2020
With over 700 million people—10 percent of the world's population—now living under lockdown, the ripples of the viral crisis are huge, even if an end may be in sight. Hidden infections and dubious statistics have also left epidemiologists highly worried. What signs are there of the economic and political impact of the virus? And what should the world

COVID-19: Potential Buffers & Trade Policy
Tim Quinlan and Shannon Seery (WF) Feb 26, 2020
As we come to grips with the unfolding COVID-19 outbreak and the various ways it could impact the economy, this report looks at potential shock absorbers for supply chains and considers how the outbreak may influence U.S. trade policy.

COVID-19: How Would Fed Easing Help?
Jay H. Bryson (WF) Feb 26, 2020
Financial markets have been thrown into a tailspin in recent days on news that the COVID-19 outbreak is spreading beyond China. Market participants fear that the outbreak will lead to slower economic growth in most countries, the United States included, and the U.S. bond market is now fully priced for 50 bps of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by autumn. Yet, as many rightly question, how can Fed rate cuts help?

Ukraine's recovery is a headache for Putin
FT View Feb 27, 2020
The country is starting to pull out of its deep post-revolution downturn.

WHO must learn from the IMF to stop pandemics
Prabhat Jha (FT) Feb 27, 2020
A global group is needed to gather outbreak data and stress test public health authorities.

Don't fret about the big build-up in emerging market debt
Gene Frieda (FT) Feb 27, 2020
Headline figures may seem alarming but the real picture is much more nuanced.

Oil market faces up to grim implications of coronavirus
David Sheppard (FT) Feb 27, 2020
Crude price is in a tailspin, down more than 20 per cent from highs last month.

Markets wake up with a jolt to the implications of covid-19
Economist Feb 27, 2020
Could market turmoil add to the economic disruption?

As its covid-19 epidemic slows, China tries to get back to work
Economist Feb 27, 2020
Officials shift their focus to reviving growth. But that isn't easy.

As the Coronavirus spreads, can the EU afford to close its borders?
Raffaella Meninno and Guntram B. Wolff (Bruegel) Feb 27, 2020
In 2018, 320 million trips were made between EU countries and almost 2 million people crossed Schengen borders to go to work. Stopping them would cause serious economic disruption.

Fed Is Losing Its Credibility to Coronavirus
Narayana Kocherlakota (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 27, 2020
The central bank is failing to act in the face of a threat to world growth, and for no good reason.

Coronavirus Is Rupturing Global Supply Chains
Michael Lierow, Cornelius Herzog, and Martin Zollneritsch (Brink) Feb 27, 2020
The global economic impact of the Chinese COVID-19 outbreak depends on how long the virus lasts, how far it spreads and how much quarantines disrupt the labor market. It is important to analyze all of the potential losses especially since China plays a major role in the global supply chain so there is a greater risk of disruption. Three scenarios for risk and the best response to the coronavirus based on the scenario.

Coronavirus, a new jolt to Iran's economy?
Adnan Mazarei (PIIE) Feb 27, 2020
At a time of horrific economic pressure resulting from US sanctions, a recession, high inflation, and the mismanagement of its own finances, Iran could ill afford another blow to its stability. Now one has come in the form of a public health crisis caused by the coronavirus. On top of the 19 deaths and 139 infections reported so far—which could be an understatement from underreporting—the disease has shut down schools, universities, and some public spaces, likely sowing fear, political discontent, and mistrust.

The Market Rout Is About More Than Coronavirus
Chris Hughes (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 27, 2020
Many big European companies are struggling already, as Thursday's results showed. The virus may have forced a selloff that was overdue anyway.

The New-Old Threat to Economic Freedom
John B. Taylor (Project Syndicate) Feb 27, 2020
With politicians proposing policies that would vastly expand the size of the government and its involvement in the economy, it is clear that too many Americans have forgotten the lessons of the twentieth century. As Friedrich Hayek and Milton Friedman pointed out long ago, deviating from market principles is a recipe for disaster.

Coronavirus and the Global Economy
Simon Johnson (Project Syndicate) Feb 27, 2020
If developing countries' health systems come under pressure, the US, Europe, and others should step up quickly with technical assistance and essential supplies. Unfortunately, there has so far been a worrying lack of leadership especially by US President Donald Trump's administration.

A COVID-19 Emergency Response Plan
Larry Hatheway (Project Syndicate) Feb 27, 2020
The rapid escalation of the COVID-19 crisis may be setting the stage for a global recession. Economic policymakers have no time to waste in preparing a response – preferably one that makes full use of low and falling bond yields, below-target inflation, and the lessons of the last recession.

The West's Final Countdown?
Joschka Fischer (Project Syndicate) Feb 27, 2020
With the US presidential election approaching, no one can say they didn't foresee the possibility of Donald Trump winning a second term – an event that would pose an existential threat to the very idea of "the West." So why are European leaders spending their time squabbling over agriculture subsidies?

Eurozone - Implications of Coronavirus
Erik Nelson (WF) Feb 27, 2020
The Eurozone economy was already at risk amid the coronavirus due to its trade exposure to China, but the latest outbreak in Italy only adds to those risks. Fortunately, sentiment data were relatively encouraging in the beginning of Q1 and prior to the Italian outbreak, suggesting all is not lost for Eurozone Q1 GDP.

World must wake up to challenge of longer lifespans
Camilla Cavendish (FT) Feb 28, 2020
How well countries age is set to become a major source of competitive advantage.

Central banks have role in the climate change fight
Sabine Mauderer (FT) Feb 28, 2020
Credit rating agencies are already publishing green scores.

Real coronavirus test is yet to come for Silicon Valley
Richard Waters (FT) Feb 28, 2020
As stock market convulses, challenge is separating immediate impact from longer-term effects.

Paris: a rather exclusive global financial centre
Tom Braithwaite (FT) Feb 28, 2020
France's 'tapis rouge' doesn't extend to hedge funds, activists and short-sellers.

Only Doctors Can Save the Markets From the Coronavirus
Binyamin Appelbaum (NYT) Feb 28, 2020
nCutting interest rates is weak medicine. The best way to limit the economic impact of coronavirus is a strong public health response.

Coronavirus Fears Reverberate Across Global Economy
Michael Corkery (NYT) Feb 28, 2020
The stock market had its worst week since 2008, signaling that one of the longest expansions in history could be ending. Policymakers said they were ready to act.

The Virus and the Economy
WSJ Feb 28, 2020
U.S. growth will take a hit but Trump has a leadership opportunity.

Do sovereign bonds depend on nature?
Silvia Pavoni (Banker) Feb 28, 2020
Regulation to fight climate change is coming up against the limitations of calculating the value of unknowns.

Companies must move supply chains further from China
Alicia García-Herrero (Bruegel) Feb 28, 2020
Virus shows Southeast Asian factories too dependent on imported production inputs.

The Four-Stage Impacts of the Coronavirus
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 28, 2020
Initial expectations of a quick-V recovery are over. A more holistic understanding is still required.

Markets Are in Crisis, Not the Financial System
Brian Chappatta (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 28, 2020
U.S. stocks are having their worst week since 2008. But that's where the comparisons end.

A Global Rout Is a Great Time for a Command Economy
Shuli Ren (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 28, 2020
If there's one place investors can consider buying the dip, it's China.

Germany's Obstinate Stinginess Hurts Everyone
Andreas Kluth (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 28, 2020
One of the world's big economic problems is Germany's constitutional requirement to balance its public budgets.

Europe's Coronavirus Plan Is Not Enough
Ferdinando Giugliano (Bloomberg Opinion) Feb 28, 2020
Granting more fiscal leeway to struggling euro zone members, such as Italy, would be welcome. But a centralized budget would be much better.

A Pandemic of Deglobalization?
Harold James (Project Syndicate) Feb 28, 2020
At this stage, there is no telling how bad the COVID-19 epidemic will become before the contagion subsides or an effective, widely available vaccine is rolled out. In any case, we should not be surprised if the crisis leads to far-reaching, historically significant global change.

How migration helps countries become competitive at innovating in new technologies
Dany Bahar, Raj Choudhury, and Hillel Rapoport (VoxEU) Feb 28, 2020
There is considerable historical and contemporary evidence of the linkages between skilled migration and innovation, suggesting that one of the most important engines of economic growth stands to be strongly negatively affected by the growing backlash against migration around the world. Based on a 95-country sample spanning several decades, this column shows that migrant inventors play an important role in shaping the patent production of their destination countries. Arguably, these dynamics – driven by migrant inventors – can also affect broader economic outcomes, given the secondary effects of patenting and innovation on productivity and firm performance.

Political connections, privileged access to credit, and welfare costs
Maurizio Bussolo, Francesca de Nicola, Ugo Panizza, and Richard Varghese (VoxEU) Feb 28, 2020
Firms can use political connections to gain an unfair advantage in resource allocation, such as easier access to credit. This column examines around 460,000 firms from six central and eastern European economies and shows that political connections ease credit constraints, distort capital allocation, and may have large welfare costs. Connected firms do not always borrow to invest and, when they do invest, they are likely to misallocate capital.

Cash-Strapped Lebanon Isn't Ready for the Coronavirus
Betsy Joles (FP) Feb 28, 2020
Grappling with economic and political turmoil, Lebanon's government is underequipped for a public health emergency.

Japan's Economy May Be Another Coronavirus Casualty
William Sposato (FP) Feb 28, 2020
Both the Japanese economy and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's reputation have taken a hit over the country's reaction to the coronavirus.

Is Employment Growth at Risk to Waning Profits?
Jay H. Bryson, Sarah House, and Shannon Seery (WF) Feb 28, 2020
The financial position of the U.S. corporate sector has been deteriorating over the past few years, making it more vulnerable to any shock that would reduce earnings. Efforts to contain the new coronavirus represent one such potential shock. Could a decline in corporate profits at this stage of the economic cycle spillover into the labor market and trigger a recession?

Negative U.S. Interest Rates?
Christopher J. Neely (FRBSL Page One Econ) Feb 28, 2020
After the Financial Crisis, several central banks imposed negative interest rates on bank reserves—that is, they charged commercial banks a fee to hold their reserves. Negative interest rates are similar to low positive rates in some ways: They encourage banks to lend more and buy longer-term securities to stimulate the economy. But commercial banks find it hard to charge negative rates to their retail depositors.

Buying the coronavirus dip would be bold indeed
Merryn Somerset Webb (FT) Feb 29, 2020
The global economy was already looking a bit ropey and vulnerable to shocks.

Coronavirus Tests Limits of Central Bank Firepower
Jeanna Smialek and Jack Ewing (NYT) Feb 29, 2020
Investors are looking to the Federal Reserve and its peers as markets swoon and infections rise. They're short on ammunition.

The coronavirus alarm points to broader credit shakeout
Michael Mackenzie (FT) Feb 29, 2020
Investors will need to wait months before the full impact can be assessed.

Can China's Economy Withstand the Coronavirus?
Michael Spence (Project Syndicate) Feb 29, 2020
The COVID-19 epidemic's tail risks are significant and frightening, but as of now, they do not seem particularly likely to materialize. Instead, the outbreak's economic consequences will probably be substantial but transitory.