The end of the Argentine debt impasse is in sight
FT View Mar 1, 2015
Mauricio Macri has scored a success but still has much to do.
G20: not as bland as it seems
Dan Bogler (FT) Mar 1, 2015
Global policymakers demonstrated their support for what matters: the renminbi.
A Financial System Still Dangerously Vulnerable to a Panic
Glenn Hubbard and Hal Scott (WSJ) Mar 1, 2015
The Federal Reserve’s powers to act as lender of last resort need to be restored and strengthened.
Debt-Saddled Municipal Budgets Get a Lifeline
Robert C. Pozen and Ronald J. Gilson (WSJ) Mar 1, 2015
A unanimous Supreme Court held that health benefits for retired workers can be renegotiated or reduced.
China Might Still Be Booming
Mark Buchanan (Bloomberg View) Mar 1, 2015
A new method of forecasting economic growth bodes well for China and India.
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
Prakash Loungani (Finance & Development, Vol. 52, No. 1) Mar 1, 2015
Education, migration, and redistribution are key elements of a long-term solution to global unemployment.
A Long Commute
Çaglar Özden (Finance & Development, Vol. 52, No. 1) Mar 1, 2015
Immigrants do more good than harm when they enter a country's job market.
Toil and Technology
James Bessen (Finance & Development, Vol. 52, No. 1) Mar 1, 2015
Innovative technology is pushing workers to new jobs rather than replacing them entirely.
Point of View: System Malfunction
William R. White (Finance & Development, Vol. 52, No. 1) Mar 1, 2015
The global economy is rife with imbalances that cannot be fixed under the present international monetary (non)system
China bond market shake-up seen to attract trillions of dollars
Steve Johnson (FT) Mar 2, 2015
Beijing has ripped up the rule book to open its $7.3tn market.
Global trade: structural shifts
Shawn Donnan (FT) Mar 2, 2015
The fall in traffic could signal a permanent shift in the fundamentals driving globalisation.
Africa’s perverse incentives
Michael Gerson (WP) Mar 2, 2015
Nations like Tanzania must maintain investments in health care rather than rely on foreign donations.
Europe's upside-down myth about Greek debt
Conn Hallinan (AT) Mar 2, 2015
Behind the current crisis between Greece and the European Union lies a fable that has a telling relationship to why Athens and a number of other eurozone countries are in deep distress. This is not about poor budgeting but about crony capitalism.
Portugal's Successful Turnaround? A Fairy Tale
Daniel Stelter (Globalist) Mar 2, 2015
For all the attention given to Greece, is Portugal really that much better off?
Rip Van Winkle's Bond Nightmare
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Mar 2, 2015
Rip Van Bondtrader, waking to negative bond yields after a decade of slumber, would rather go back to sleep.
Big Problems, Little Ideas
Megan McArdle (Bloomberg View) Mar 2, 2015
Global economic forces are far more powerful than the policy levers governments have available.
The Politics of Aging
Megan McArdle (Bloomberg View) Mar 2, 2015
Who will take care of all the old people?
Is Chinese QE Next?
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Mar 2, 2015
A monetary bazooka may be needed to rescue the mainland economy.
The Migration Opportunity
Peter Sutherland (Project Syndicate) Mar 2, 2015
In the last year, more than 4,000 people have lost their lives attempting to cross the Mediterranean Sea from Africa to Europe. As EU commissioners prepare to debate an immigration strategy, they must overcome the temptation to grasp at knee-jerk solutions and instead develop a robust plan of action both at home and abroad.
Post-Crisis banking regulation: Evolution of economic thinking as it happened on Vox
Jon Danielsson (VoxEU) Mar 2, 2015
This column introduces a new Vox eBook collecting some of the best Vox columns on financial regulations, starting with the fundamentals of financial regulations, moving on to bank capital and the Basel regulations, and finishing with the wider considerations of the regulatory agenda and the political dimension. Collecting columns from over the past six years, this eBook maps the evolution of leading thought on banking regulation.
ECB minutes: What they really tell us
Charles Wyplosz (VoxEU) Mar 2, 2015
The ECB has finally begun releasing the minutes of its policymaking meetings, something the world's major central banks have been doing since the 1990s. This column asks whether the publication of these minutes increases ECB transparency. While providing useful information on analysis at the ECB, the minutes lack the details on the actual discussions and the voting behaviour of committee members that the minutes of the Fed, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan provide. They thus constitute just the first step, albeit a very welcome one, towards ECB transparency.
Assessing compliance with the Stability and Growth Pact’s rules
Carlo Cottarelli (VoxEU) Mar 2, 2015
The European Commission has clarified the flexibility in existing Eurozone fiscal rules. This column argues that the emphasis on structural rather than headline deficits is desirable but requires identification of potential growth rates. The way the Commission currently estimates potential output yields potential growth estimates that are very low. Thus, a year of modest expected growth like 2015 may be treated as a year of economic boom that requires faster than normal fiscal adjustments.
If easing is not Europe’s answer, an alternative is elusive
Lorenzo Bini Smaghi (FT) Mar 3, 2015
Only signals from the ECB that easing will not be stopped have reversed worsening sentiment.
A chance for China to restore its credibility
FT View Mar 3, 2015
Capital controls can only buy time to address the underlying issues.
Is Brexit a threat to foreign direct investment?
Courtney Fingar (FT) Mar 3, 2015
Majority of EM investors in the UK that cite a target market are targeting the EU.
A Recovery Waiting to Be Liberated
John B. Taylor (WSJ) Mar 3, 2015
Bad government policy has kept the economy caged. Here’s how to spur growth quickly.
Germany's future lies East
Pepe Escobar (AT) Mar 3, 2015
Germany, sooner or later, must answer a categorical imperative - how to keep running massive trade surpluses while dumping its euro trade partners. The only possible answer is more trade with Russia, China and East Asia. It will take quite a while, but a Berlin-Moscow-Beijing commercial axis is all but inevitable.
Why London Must Share Economic Power
Diane Coyle (Globalist) Mar 3, 2015
Centralization has limited the performance of the UK economy.
Little-Known Laws That Cripple American Trade
Gary Galles (Mises Daily) Mar 3, 2015
The harm that Britain’s protectionist Navigation Acts imposed on the colonies was a major impetus for the American Revolution. But the United States did not abandon those unjustifiable restrictions. Even before the Bill of Rights was adopted, Congress in 1789 enacted similar protectionist restrictions on coastal shipping. It is centuries past time to eliminate such harmful restrictions and the Jones Act that is their modern progeny.
Australia, Where One Central Bank Won't Do
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Mar 3, 2015
Monetary policy can't fix the country's two-speed economy.
Estonia Did Its Post-Soviet Homework
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Mar 3, 2015
Estonia's president says his country has been more responsible than Ukraine since the fall of the Soviet Union, which is why it's now more secure.
Brazil's Conundrum: Corruption and Economic Realities
Juan de Onis (WA) Mar 3, 2015
President Dilma Rousseff hopes to revive Brazil’s economy. The will to fight corruption, and the political choice between populism and economic realism, will decide the outcome.
New Equities for Infrastructure Investment
Justin Yifu Lin, Kevin Lu, and Cledan Mandri-Perrott (Project Syndicate) Mar 3, 2015
Though infrastructure projects are among the most productive investments a society can make, existing asset classes fail to provide the structure needed to compete with traditional equity or debt. That is why economies would benefit from a new asset class that could harness the potential of private money for public infrastructure.
Publicly Funded Inequality
Kemal Dervis (Project Syndicate) Mar 3, 2015
In the hands of a capable entrepreneur, a technological breakthrough can be worth billions, owing to regulatory protections and the winner-take-all nature of the global economy. What is often overlooked is the role that public money plays in creating this modern concentration of private wealth.
No Hiding From Sustainable Development
Jeffrey D. Sachs (Project Syndicate) Mar 3, 2015
At the Brazilian launch of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network last year, many complained that São Paulo was suffering from a mega-drought that the country's politicians were keeping quiet. This is a reality around the world: too many politicians ignore a growing environmental crisis, placing the entire world in peril.
Austerity Is Not Greece’s Problem
Ricardo Hausmann (Project Syndicate) Mar 3, 2015
When looking out a window, it is easy to be fooled by your own reflection and see more of yourself than the outside world. This seems to be the case when US observers, influenced by their own country's fiscal debate, look at Greece.
A Silk Glove for China’s Iron Fist
Brahma Chellaney (Project Syndicate) Mar 3, 2015
For years, China has sought to encircle South Asia with a “string of pearls": a network of ports connecting its eastern coast to the Middle East that would boost its strategic clout and maritime access. With the maritime Silk Roach initiative, China is attempting to put a virtuous veneer on the same strategy.
Capital taxation in the 21st century
Alan J Auerbach and Kevin Hassett (VoxEU) Mar 3, 2015
Piketty's justification for his proposed wealth tax relies on the notion that the rate of return on capital exceeds economic growth. This column challenges this basis, arguing that it fails to account for risk. The authors also examine the relative merits of a consumption tax, which may be more valid.
Greece’s Next Move
James Surowiecki (New Yorker) Mar 3, 2015
Does the eurozone need Greece more than Greece needs the eurozone?
Currency Wars Fool Few in the Age of Social Media
Will Hickey (YaleGlobal) Mar 3, 2015
Global investors follow every move of central banks, trading currency – steady hands are needed.
Ethiopia, Long Mired in Poverty, Rides an Economic Boom
Isma'il Kushkush (NYT) Mar 4, 2015
Some economists have called Ethiopia an “African Lion,” and the government has an ambitious plan to make Ethiopia a middle-income country by 2025.
Ukraine Has Escaped Financial Meltdown-But Challenges Lie Ahead
Anders Åslund (PIIE) Mar 4, 2015
The desperate financial crisis that Ukraine faced in February has been lifted temporarily by recent positive actions in Kiev. Ukraine is far from out of the woods, but it has bought time to undertake the reforms that its new government appears committed to carrying out.
The United States’ Technological Future: An Endless Frontier?
Edward Gresser (Globalist) Mar 4, 2015
Despite the historical US lead in world research spending, future trends are not positive.
Denmark Can't Print Money Fast Enough
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Mar 4, 2015
Denmark is unleashing unprecedented amounts of ammunition in its battle to prevent the krone from appreciating. It still might not be enough to win the currency wars.
The Real Meaning of India's Rate Cut
Dhiraj Nayyar (Bloomberg View) Mar 4, 2015
The central bank sends a message: The small stuff matters.
The Target China Should Have Set
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Mar 4, 2015
Leaders should focus on wages, not GDP.
Realizing the Indian Dream
Jim O'Neill (Project Syndicate) Mar 4, 2015
It is probably too early to say with certainty that India will soon take its place as the world's third largest economy, behind China and the US. But, given that India's investment climate seems to be improving, that moment might not be too far away.
A Bright Future for Clean Technology
Jon Creyts and Martin Stuchtey (Project Syndicate) Mar 4, 2015
Observers might be forgiven for thinking that clean technology's moment in the sun has passed. But the convulsions ravaging the sector are simply symptoms of a cycle that characterizes emerging technologies: excitement, inflated expectations, and consolidation – ultimately followed by stability and growth.
A Fair Hearing for Sovereign Debt
Joseph E. Stiglitz and Martin Guzman (Project Syndicate) Mar 4, 2015
Last July, when US federal judge Thomas Griesa ruled that Argentina had to repay in full the "vulture" funds that had bought its sovereign debt at rock-bottom prices, the decision reverberated far and wide, affecting bonds issued in a variety of jurisdictions. Do US court rulings really apply to contracts executed in other countries?
India’s Fiscal Fortune
Gita Gopinath (Project Syndicate) Mar 4, 2015
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government must be feeling lucky. The decline in world commodity prices, led by crude oil, has made managing the national budget easier – and now, after the Central Statistics Office revised its methodology for calculating GDP data, that task has become easier still.
Argentina’s haircut as an outlier
Sebastian Edwards (VoxEU) Mar 4, 2015
There were 24 sovereign defaults and debt restructurings between 1997 and 2013. Using data on 180 debt restructurings – for both sovereign bonds and sovereign syndicated bank loans – this column argues that the roughly 75% ‘haircut’ Argentina imposed on its creditors in 2005 was an outlier. Greece’s ‘haircut’ of roughly 64% in 2012, by contrast, was in line with previous experience.
Can the United States Close the International Wage Gap?
George R. Tyler (Globalist) Mar 5, 2015
A generational effort is required to restore growth in U.S. wages.
Why Draghi's QE Might Fizzle
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Mar 5, 2015
The ECB's QE plan faces three dangers; not enough bonds to buy, a Grexit threatening the euro's future and, surprisingly, a resurgent economy.
Global value chains and domestic value added: New evidence
Victor Kümmritz (VoxEU) Mar 5, 2015
Global value chains (GVCs) clearly promote trade and investment but their impact on domestic value-added is less clear. This column discusses new evidence showing that GVCs participation stimulates domestic value, but not for all nations. It is necessary for low- and middle-income countries to increase their absorptive capacities if they are to reap benefits from GVC participation.
Transportation costs and industrial clustering: New evidence
Kristian Behrens, Théophile Bougna and Mark Brown (VoxEU) Mar 5, 2015
Transport costs fell precipitously during the last century leading many observers to posit that the world has ‘become flat’. If this were true, the costs of transporting goods should no longer have much bearing on firms’ location choices and the spatial structure of economic activity. This column, using manufacturing data for Canada from 1990 to 2008, argues that despite a decline in geographical concentration of industries, location patterns still change with fluctuations in transport costs.
Macroprudential spillovers and organisational structure
Piotr Danisewicz, Dennis Reinhardt and Rhiannon Sowerbutts (VoxEU) Mar 5, 2015
In a global financial system, macroprudential policies may create international spillovers. This column presents new evidence on how the organisational structure of a bank affects the magnitude of these spillovers. An increase in capital requirements at home causes foreign branches to reduce their lending growth to other banks operating in the UK more than foreign subsidiaries do. Seemingly, this is because branches are an integral part of the parent company.
The robots are coming
John Lanchester (LRB) Mar 5, 2015
Imagine an economy in which the 0.1 per cent own the machines, the rest of the 1 per cent manage their operation, and the 99 per cent either do the remaining scraps of unautomatable work, or are unemployed. That is the world implied by developments in productivity and automation. Capital isn’t just winning against labour: there’s no contest.
India’s Careful Plan for Growth
NYT Mar 6, 2015
For decades, the country’s leaders have promised reform without actually effecting change. Now, the challenge is inescapable.
Venezuela’s Currency Circus
Francisco Toro and Dorothy Kronick (NYT) Mar 6, 2015
Welcome to President Maduro's hall of mirrors of economic mismanagement.
Cognitive Dissonance in Russia
Simeon Djankov (PIIE) Mar 6, 2015
According to the latest opinion survey in Russia, the share of people who are happy with their life has increased to 52 percent, from 44 percent in December 2014, and from 41 percent in December 2013. The survey results were published at the end of February by the state survey agency VCIOM.
Inside the Currency Wars
A. Gary Shilling (Bloomberg View) Mar 6, 2015
Almost every country except the U.S. is trying to devalue its currency to gain an advantage in global trade and boost weak economies.
Machiavelli in Euroland
Harold James (Project Syndicate) Mar 6, 2015
More than 500 years after writing his famous political treatise The Prince, Niccolò Machiavelli has reemerged as one of Europe's most popular political thinkers. And, indeed, at a time when economic policymakers are facing extraordinarily confusing challenges, he has some useful advice to offer.
Living the Saudi Dream
A. F. Alhajji (Project Syndicate) Mar 6, 2015
Saudi Arabia wants it all: to salvage OPEC, achieve income diversification and industrialization, and preserve its market share in crude oil, petroleum products, petrochemicals, and natural gas liquids. Whether the Saudis succeed will be determined largely by the shale-energy industry in the US.
The Threat of Bubbles Should Guide Fed Policy
John Cassidy (New Yorker) Mar 6, 2015
The constant focus on the link between inflation and unemployment reflects an outdated view.
Why It Matters If the Dollar Is the Reserve Currency
Patrick Barron (Mises Daily) Mar 7, 2015
We refer to the dollar as a “reserve currency” when referring to its use by other countries when settling their international trade accounts
Piketty Corrects the Inequality Crowd
Robert Rosenkranz (WSJ) Mar 8, 2015
The economist’s book caused a sensation last year, but now he says the redistributionists drew the wrong conclusions.
A Trade Deal With a Bonus For National Security
Michèle Flournoy and Ely Ratner (WSJ) Mar 8, 2015
U.S. failure to pass a trans-Pacific agreement would leave a political vacuum for China to fill.
A deal worth getting right
Lawrence Summers (WP) Mar 8, 2015
A good trade deal could help many.
The folly of Fed bashing
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Mar 8, 2015
Political assaults add to economic uncertainty.
The German Problem
Angel Ubide (PIIE) Mar 8, 2015
Germany has the obligation to reduce its external imbalances and contribute to global economic growth. Fortunately for Germany, a program of reforms and public investment would meet both objectives.
Let China Make a Soft Landing
Bloomberg View Mar 8, 2015
China was right to cut interest rates and isn't manipulating its currency.
Varoufakis's Ill-Advised Visions
Daniel Stelter (Globalist) Mar 9, 2015
Yanis Varoufakis's vision for the Eurozone.
The Fed Needs Humans
Eric Beinhocker (Bloomberg View) Mar 9, 2015
Don't replace the Fed's policy makers with a mechanical rule.
Three Reasons Japan Will Get More Stimulus
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Mar 9, 2015
A third dose of quantitative easing in Japan is almost certain.
The Stock-Bond Disconnect
Kenneth Rogoff (Project Syndicate) Mar 9, 2015
How should one understand the disconnect between the new highs reached by global equity indices and the new depths plumbed by real interest rates worldwide? Several competing explanations attempt to reconcile these trends, and getting it right is essential for calibrating monetary and fiscal policy appropriately.
Nurturing Egypt’s Economic Transformation
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Mar 10, 2015
Egypt’s comprehensive economic policy response isn't just aimed at stabilizing the economy. It also seeks to unlock the country's significant untapped potential.
The Fed Under Fire
Barry Eichengreen (Project Syndicate) Mar 10, 2015
The US Federal Reserve System has always been a work in progress, and now it is being subjected to the most severe attack by members of Congress since the Great Depression. But it is far from clear that the right response to the latest crisis is an abrupt turn away from the reforms adopted back then.
Global Capital Heads for the Frontier
Dani Rodrik (Project Syndicate) Mar 10, 2015
So-called “frontier market economies" are the latest fad in investment circles. Whether surging capital inflows in these countries – including Bangladesh, Vietnam, Honduras, Bolivia, Kenya, and Ghana – should be cheered or lamented is a question that has become a kind of Rorschach test for economic analysts and policymakers.
Conflicts in China's economic goals
Michael Lelyveld (AT) Mar 11, 2015
Rising debt levels in China and recent pronouncements suggest an approaching collision of economic policy goals, with debt-burdened state-owned enterprises particularly at risk as banks take advantage of permission to impose higher interest rates.
India’s Economic Picture Brighter, but Investment, Structural Reforms Key
IMF Survey Mar 11, 2015
The Indian economy is reviving, helped by positive policy actions that have improved confidence and lower global oil prices, says the IMF in its annual assessment of the Indian economy
Russia: How Much Do Governors Receive in Bribes?
Simeon Djankov (PIIE) Mar 11, 2015
While the world was transfixed on the gruesome murder of opposition leader Boris Nemtsov in Moscow last month, another developing story was intensely followed by ordinary Russians. The governor of the Sakhalin region—a large swath of land in the North Pacific—was detained on charges of accepting a $6.1 million bribe.
The ECB's QE Is Working Well
Angel Ubide (PIIE) Mar 11, 2015
After a long period of debate and equivocation, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced a program of bond purchases known as quantitative easing (QE) in January, followed by details of its implementation in March. The rationale for QE was to counter the euro area's insufficient demand and live up to the ECB's price stability mandate.
Turbulence Ahead as U.S. Flies Solo
A Tech Bubble or Just a Mistake?
China's Plan for Winning the Currency Wars
China Can't Get Enough Bitcoins
A Global Strategy for Disaster Risk
Why Deflation is Good News for Europe
Germany as the Euro's Real Loser
The Price of Biodiversity
Eurozone debt, bailouts and contagion
Under Modi, India Challenges Old Assumptions
The Power of the Powerless
QE Could Spur Needed Reform in the Eurozone
Oil Export Folly
Big oil's broken model
Greece and the Euro Area-Impasse or End Game?
Iceland Makes Strong Recovery from 2008 Financial Crisis
Four Strange Tales of European Debt
Now Argentina Can't Even Pay Bonds in Argentina
The Payoff of a Weaker Currency
The Digital Transformation of Europe
Banking integration and dollarisation
Gazprom: Keeping the taps open
Smoke and mirrors are safer than cold turkey
Fed is ready for lift off on rates
US should work from inside Asia’s bank
No, We're Not in a Currency War
The Trouble With Sanctions
Implications of private debt for euro exit
China’s money magnet pulls US allies
Japan’s big lesson for the eurozone
Wimp label sticks to emerging nations
Fed is ready for lift off on rates
Japan’s Devaluation Warning for Europe
The robots are coming
The new demography of death
Brazil Needs to Get Back on Reform Track
Can Asia Survive a Strong Dollar?
How Scary Is the Bond Market?
The Messy Politics of Economic Divergence
Japan’s Accounting Problem
Confidence, aggregate demand, and the business cycle: A new framework
Surprise monetary tightening expands shadow banking
Two giants with a chance for partnership
Positive buzz about Europe hard to defend
Draghi QE is stoking bond bubble risk
China: With friends like these
3 European Powers Say They Will Join China-Led Bank
Designing Private Cities, Open to All
Divided Europe Mired in Crises
Greece's Euro Exit Seems Inevitable
The Worldwide Deficit of High-Quality Debt
Government Promises and the Next Bank Crisis
A Trade Deal Liberals Can Live With
How Far Will the Euro Fall?
Making Space for China
Africa’s Eurobond Bonanza
Fragility lies beneath a bright outlook
Russia faces long balancing act for banks
Positive buzz about Europe hard to defend
Two giants with a chance for partnership
The Engine That Pulled Us Out of Recession
A Necessary Correction in the Oil Industry
Central Bank Autonomy Is Under Attack
Why Asia Should Welcome the Taper
Winning the Too-Big-to-Fail Battle
A Strong Dollar Forces the Fed To Rethink Its Next Move
Obama Abandons Allies on China’s Marshall Plan
Robots, productivity, and jobs
China's Big Debt Swap
Don't Blame the Banks
UK can walk tall if productivity increases
Accommodating China, disappointing US
Yellen fights back in euro-dollar drama
How Foreigners Became America’s Financial Regulators
The Incredibly Rosy Forecast of Russia's Central Bank
TPP Chief Negotiators Conclude Hawaii Meet as Washington Debate Continues
Launch of African Tripartite FTA Set for June
Timing of EU-India Trade Talks Reboot Unclear after Summit Cancellation
Turning Japanese
The Mounting Global Challenges of Rampant Corruption
Fed up
Japan Needs a Bigger Land Grab
China's Place in the New World Economic Order
The Man Who Can Save Brazil
Asia’s Almighty Middle Class
Financing Education for All
The Fed Versus Price Stability
Labour and finance in the aftermath of the Great Recession
Fed Rate Forecast: Cloudy With a Chance of Slower Growth
The Greece Issue Breeds Brinkmanship in the Eurozone
U.S. Allies, Lured by China’s Bank
The tricky task of killing off the sovereign risk subsidy
A Deal India's Farmers Can't Refuse
Bond Markets Bet on Grexit
China’s Trial-and-Error Economy
Brazil’s Dim Voice on the World Stage
Asia’s infrastructure gap
The new authoritarianism
IPOs are going downhill fast
Eurozone QE relies on a confidence trick
Exchange rates: Transatlantic divergence
This Snookered Isle
Lee Kuan Yew's Economic Miracle
Let Obama Close the TPP Deal
How to Build Economies
Correlating Social Mobility and Economic Outcomes
Growth alone will not stabilise Europe
Uneasy peace will tear apart world economy
Challenges faced by a singular city state
Fed ‘lift-off’ is to destination unknown
Low yields make patience best strategy
In Lee Kuan Yew, China Saw a Leader to Emulate
Keeping China In or Out? Beijing Vs. Washington on TPP
China Wants to Buy Europe
Populists Still Not Ready to Rule Europe
The Unbearable Exuberance of China's Markets
Will More of the Same Last?
In Praise of Short Sellers
Will Fed Tightening Choke Emerging Markets?
IMF Review Weighs How to Harness Trade for Growth
Mortgaging the Future?
Hanergy: The 10-minute trade
A rebuff of China’s AIIB would be folly
Low yields make patience best strategy
A Greek Surprise
Germany’s Choice: Shaper or Bystander?
Looking for the Bear in the Bull Market
Five Charts Show Europe's Economy Is All Right
The Political Perils of a Ukraine Default
Give China a Reserve Currency
How to Fight Currency Manipulation
Messed-Up Macro
China's Fragile Evolution
Missteps that could cost Greece the euro
The American century will survive the rise of China
Europe crisis spurs corruption crackdown
QE will lower living standards long term
An oligarch brought to heel
The Taper Tantrum Revisited
Guess What's Destroying the Middle Class?
Lee Kuan Yew's Bad Prescription for India
Deescalating Europe’s Politics of Resentment
Is Jobless Growth Inevitable?
Sustaining the Unsustainable Eurozone
Decision Time on Venezuela
How income inequality benefits everybody
Lessons from the 1937-38 recession
Towards a new Gold Standard?
Confounded by China’s rise
Missteps that could cost Greece the euro
The American century will survive the rise of China
Japan: Abe bids to end economic burden
WTO Negotiations: New Papers Open Old Rifts on Food, Farming
TTIP: EU Officials Weigh ISDS Options as High-Level Meetings Continue
China’s Financial Paradoxes
Who Holds Euro Assets? We Still Don't Know
The Real Singapore Model
Europe’s Easy-Money Endgame
Are Equities Overvalued?
Latin America in the Second Machine Age
How did the ECB save the Eurozone without spending a single euro?
Latin America’s Real Corruption Crisis
Strong Dollar, Weakened World
Rally Round U.S. Treasuries
Low Rates? Get Used to It
A Window on China’s New Normal
Secular Stagnation for Free
What does China having the largest GDP mean?
Microeconomic origins of macroeconomic tail risks
The Blood Cries Out
Why Sanctions on Russia Don’t Work
What’s an Industry?
China’s Credit Overdose
The myth of Europe’s Little Ice Age
The Glory Days of Private Equity Are Over
Peru Is Chavismo’s Next American Target
Time to unpeg the renminbi
Lee Kuan Yew and the Myth of Asian Capitalism
Global Economy Is Now a Rorschach Test
Stronger Dollar in a Weak Global Economy
Is asset management a systemic risk?
Technology will free us from bad banking
A continent enfeebled by economic crisis
Russia looks to history for a new ideology
German Pay Hike Counters Deflation in the Eurozone
Debt Could Derail China's Ambitions
Why the Sustainable Development Goals Matter
The Monetarist Mistake
Last Chance for Ukraine and Europe
The Coming Emerging-Market Debt Squeeze
China’s New Normal and America’s Old Habits
China and Global Governance
The door to China’s riches remains locked
A mishap should not seal Greece’s fate
It is financial crashes we should fear
Shareholder value not short-term profit
Markets look forward to higher inflation
India: At the coalface
Want to Reduce Inequality? Consult China, Vietnam and India
A World Remade by Fracking
Trans-Pacific Partnership treaty will help neither workers nor consumers
When Should the IMF Make Exceptions? Part I
U.S. Opposition to Asian Bank Is Self-Destructive
Japan's Newest Export: Deflation
U.S.'s Best Asian Friend Deserves a Trade Deal
How We Got to Contango
Congratulations, China: You Won a Rhodes
Are Money Managers Lemmings?
Being Old in 2040 Will Be No Fun
Signs of Life in the Eurozone
The Growth Conundrum
Unnecessary Instability
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Mar 11, 2015
Clive Crook (Bloomberg View) Mar 11, 2015
Fixing Europe's single currency will require enlarging a layer of government that Europeans already find remote and oppressive.
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Mar 11, 2015
Maybe there is a tech bubble today, but it sure doesn't look like one in the late 1990s.
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Mar 11, 2015
Don't bet against China winning the currency wars in the long-term.
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Mar 11, 2015
The Communist Party's highest priority is stability, and the rampant use of bitcoin represents nothing if not the opposite.
Ban Ki-moon (Project Syndicate) Mar 11, 2015
The annual cost of damage to commercial and residential buildings worldwide is now expected to average $314 billion, with the private sector bearing as much as 85% of the price tag. That is why hundreds of business executives are now preparing to attend a UN conference on disaster-risk reduction in Sendai, Japan.
Daniel Gros (Project Syndicate) Mar 11, 2015
Many observers have argued that cheap oil has a downside, because it exacerbates deflationary tendencies in the advanced countries, which already seem to be mired in a low-growth trap. But this fear is unfounded, because it is based on a misunderstanding about what matters for debt-service capacity.
Daniel Stelter (Globalist) Mar 12, 2015
10 reasons why the average German is the main loser in the Eurozone.
Bjørn Lomborg (Project Syndicate) Mar 12, 2015
According to three new studies, preserving biodiversity is not just a desirable goal; it also makes good financial sense, at least for some projects. World leaders, in choosing the targets that will guide the global development agenda for the next 15 years, should take note.
Michal Kobielarz, Burak Uras and Sylvester Eijffinger (VoxEU) Mar 12, 2015
The Eurozone Crisis has been characterised by a sharp rise in sovereign interest rates in peripheral countries. The re-emergence of spreads between peripheral and core Eurozone countries at the start of the Greek crisis came after a decade of homogeneous interest rates in the monetary union. This column investigates the behaviour of spreads through the lens of a theory of implicit bailout guarantees.
Harsh V. Pant (YaleGlobal) Mar 12, 2015
Reversing India’s old non-alignment foreign policies, Modi embraces ties with the US and others.
Amrita Narlikar (FA) Mar 12, 2015
The politics of poverty at the Doha Round.
Melvyn Krauss (WSJ) Mar 13, 2015
Combating deflation and lowering interest rates make structural reforms in periphery countries more affordable.
WSJ Mar 13, 2015
The U.S. ban is harming the oil patch and raising gasoline prices.
Michael T Klare (AT) Mar 13, 2015
Many reasons have been provided for the dramatic plunge in the price of oil. One not being discussed, though it could be the most important of all, is the complete collapse of Big Oil's production-maximizing business model.
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE) Mar 13, 2015
Another week has passed in the tug of war between Greece and the euro area, and a wide gap remains between the two sides over what Athens must do to renew the financial lifeline that has kept it solvent since 2010. Still, it is too early to dismiss the likelihood of a deal in coming weeks.
IMF Survey Mar 13, 2015
Iceland has rebounded after the 2008/9 crisis and will soon surpass pre-crisis output levels with strong performance in tourism and fisheries. Debt ratios are down, balance sheets have broadly been restored, and the financial sector is back on track although some important items remain on the docket.
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Mar 13, 2015
The bond market is becoming a spooky place as negative interest rates make life weird.
Matt Levine (Bloomberg View) Mar 13, 2015
Even if Judge Griesa is wrong about stopping Citibank from paying some Argentine bonds, he's doing it anyway.
Megan McArdle (Bloomberg View) Mar 13, 2015
Why does the idea of a weaker currency have so much allure?
John Chambers (Project Syndicate) Mar 13, 2015
Europe is on the cusp of a technological transformation that will revolutionize entire industries and change the way its people engage with one another. Indeed, the digital transformation is emerging as the single most promising way to revive the continent's moribund economy and tackle its stubborn unemployment problem.
Martin Brown, Ralph De Haas and Vladimir Sokolow (VoxEU) Mar 14, 2015
Financial dollarisation, the widespread holding of assets and liabilities in a foreign currency, is often viewed as a threat to financial stability in emerging markets. However, there is not enough evidence that monetary policy is responsible for low dollarisation. This column uses cross-regional evidence from Russia to show that monetary stability is indeed a key determinant of dollarisation. Moreover, banking integration strongly influences how households and firms adjust the currency composition of their assets and liabilities to changes in monetary conditions.
Alex Barker, Christian Oliver and Jack Farchy (FT) Mar 15, 2015
The EU’s antitrust case threatens to sour relations between Moscow and the west further.
Wolfgang Munchau (FT) Mar 15, 2015
Grexit may well work in the long run but it will bring economic misery in the short term.
Gavyn Davies (FT) Mar 15, 2015
Gap is large between hawks and doves on the pace of tightening.
Fred Bergsten (FT) Mar 15, 2015
Washington should sign up and bless the desire of its friends to join.
Bloomberg View Mar 15, 2015
The bogus rhetoric of economic conflict is dangerous as well as wrong.
Jordan Olmstead (Diplomat) Mar 15, 2015
Sanctions may well be the least worst option in dealing with hostile regimes. But they can have unintended consequences.
David Amiel and Paul-Adrien Hyppolite (VoxEU) Mar 15, 2015
As the Eurozone crisis lingers on, euro exit is now being debated in ‘core’ as well as ‘periphery’ countries. This column examines the potential costs of euro exit, using France as an example. The authors estimate that 30% of private marketable debt would be redenominated, but since only 36% of revenues would be redenominated, the aggregate currency mismatch is relatively modest. However, the immediate financial cost of exiting the euro would nevertheless be substantial if public authorities were to bail out systemic and highly exposed companies.
Gideon Rachman (FT) Mar 16, 2015
Diplomatic debacle over AIIB will make America look isolated and petulant.
Peter Tasker (FT) Mar 16, 2015
Be patient and prepare for a bumpy ride.
Ousmène Mandeng (FT) Mar 16, 2015
They suffer from lacking international monetary power.
Gavyn Davies (FT) Mar 16, 2015
Gap is large between hawks and doves on the pace of tightening.
WSJ Mar 16, 2015
Monetary easing without reform has reduced real wages.
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Mar 16, 2015
Society can adjust to new technology; will it?
George W. Leeson (OECD Insight) Mar 16, 2015
In Europe, population ageing continues and brings with it increasing numbers of centenarians and supercentenarians as well as a new demography of death.
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Mar 16, 2015
Brazil's mass protests should be the catalyst for President Dilma Rousseff to press forward with reforms.
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Mar 16, 2015
The region is better prepared than 1997, but still not immune.
Robert J. Shiller (Project Syndicate) Mar 16, 2015
With the bond market appearing ripe for a dramatic correction, many are wondering whether a crash could drag down markets for other long-term assets, such as housing and equities. But when an event has never occurred, it cannot be predicted with any semblance of confidence.
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Project Syndicate) Mar 16, 2015
The world is increasingly characterized by divergence – in economic performance, monetary policy, and thus in financial markets. Though there is a broad consensus on what must be done to rebalance the global economy, political leaders remain unwilling to fulfill their economic-governance responsibilities.
Adair Turner (Project Syndicate) Mar 16, 2015
Japan, it seems clear, is monetizing several trillion dollars of government debt. And, despite the orthodox fear that monetization inevitably fuels dangerous inflation, the most likely market reaction will be a yawn.
George-Marios Angeletos, Fabrice Collard and Harris Dellas (VoxEU) Mar 16, 2015
The Global Crisis has forced a revaluation of the standard macroeconomic models in use worldwide. This column discusses an enrichment that include a formal concept of ‘confidence’ about the short-medium term economic outlook – one that relates to market psychology rather than expectations about technology and policy. This extension helps the model predictions better match reality. It also offers a formalisation of the popular view that depressed spending, arising from a drop in confidence, is a major cause of recessions and that recoveries often hinge on ‘restoring confidence in the economy’.
Benjamin Nelson, Gabor Pinter and Konstantinos Theodoridis (VoxEU) Mar 16, 2015
There has been an extensive debate over whether central banks should raise interest rates to ‘lean against’ the build-up of leverage in the financial system. This column reports on empirical evidence showing that, in contrast to the conventional view, surprise monetary contractions have tended to increase shadow bank asset growth, rather than reduce it in the US. Monetary policy had the opposite effect on commercial bank asset growth. These findings cast some doubt on the idea that monetary policy could be used to “get in all the cracks” of the financial system in a uniform way.
Kishore Mahbubani (FT) Mar 17, 2015
The breakthrough can come only if Xi and Modi are truly statesmanlike.
Stephanie Flanders (FT) Mar 17, 2015
‘Outperformance’ of EU shares due to weak euro and strong dollar.
John Plender (FT) Mar 17, 2015
Eurozone bond prices losing touch with fundamentals.
Mar 17, 2015
Beijing has lent billions to spread its influence, but as defaults loom its approach is shifting.
Andrew Higgins and David E. Sanger (NYT) Mar 17, 2015
Germany, France and Italy said that they would be part of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, which Washington views as a rival to the World Bank.
Alex Tabarrok and Shruti Rajagopalan (NYT) Mar 17, 2015
How the company town offers an alternative model of urban development.
Chris Miller (YaleGlobal) Mar 17, 2015
Europe seeks influence, yet fails to strengthen institutions to stabilize economic and regional security
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Mar 17, 2015
Every day of delay in cutting a deal pushes Greece a little closer to leaving the common currency.
Barry Ritholtz (Bloomberg View) Mar 17, 2015
There's strong demand for high-quality sovereign debt and not enough supply, which means yields will stay low for a long time.
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Mar 17, 2015
In the wake of the Carinthia debt crisis in Austria, European countries have so far been unable to take stock of all the government guarantees they have issued. That's a dangerous uncertainty.
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Mar 17, 2015
The Trans-Pacific Partnership is too important for the U.S. to pass up.
Anatole Kaletsky (Project Syndicate) Mar 17, 2015
The US dollar is hitting new 12-year highs almost daily, while the euro seems to be plunging inexorably to below dollar parity. But there are plenty of reasons to believe that the exchange-rate trend may already be overshooting.
Jim O'Neill (Project Syndicate) Mar 17, 2015
In response to the UK's decision to become a founding member of the Asian Infrastructure Development Bank, American officials have accused their British counterparts of "constant accommodation of China." In fact, it is the US, not the UK, that is advocating the wrong approach.
Koffi Alle (Project Syndicate) Mar 17, 2015
The issuance of Eurobonds has soared in the wake of the global financial crisis, as many Sub-Saharan countries tapped the international bond market for the first time. The opportunity that Eurobonds imply for funding development efforts in Africa is immense, but their use must be carefully managed.
Martin Wolf (FT) Mar 18, 2015
On both the demand and supply sides, the assumed recovery looks questionable.
Neil Buckley (FT) Mar 18, 2015
Sector is facing its biggest crisis since 2009 global recession.
Stephanie Flanders (FT) Mar 18, 2015
‘Outperformance’ of EU shares due to weak euro and strong dollar.
Kishore Mahbubani (FT) Mar 18, 2015
The breakthrough can come only if Xi and Modi are truly statesmanlike.
Penny Pritzker and Jim McNerney (WSJ) Mar 18, 2015
One-third of overall U.S. economic growth since 2009 came from goods and services sold abroad.
Peter Wong (Mises Daily) Mar 18, 2015
Historically, low oil prices have been perceived by many as an overriding positive for the economy. This has especially been the case in the United States where most households rely on car travel as a primary means of transport. Low oil prices allow households to spend more on economic activities other than gasoline and other oil-related expenses. Historically, every time the oil price soared — such as the 1973 oil crisis, the 1991 Gulf War, and in 2008 when oil reached a historical high of $147 a barrel — public opinion always regarded these events as a serious threat to the economy.
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Mar 18, 2015
Monetary policy can provide a bedrock of economic certainty -- but only if central bankers can discharge their duties without fear of government interference.
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Mar 18, 2015
Fed tightening should give momentum to reforms in India and Indonesia.
Mark Roe (Project Syndicate) Mar 18, 2015
After the financial crisis forced governments to bail out systemically important banks, regulators implemented measures to safeguard the financial system. Recent studies suggest that their efforts are working – but they still have a long way to go.
John Cassidy (New Yorker) Mar 18, 2015
Movements in currency are increasingly exacting a greater impact on the U.S. economy, and the Fed can’t afford to ignore them.
Kevin Gallagher (Globalist) Mar 18, 2015
The U.S. condemnation of the UK over its engagement with China on AIIB has left it isolated.
Guy Michaels and Georg Graetz (VoxEU) Mar 18, 2015
Robots may be dangerous not only to the action heroes of cinema, but also to the average manufacturing worker. This column analyses the effect robots have had in 14 industries across 17 developed countries from 1993 to 2007. Industrial robots increase labour productivity, total factor productivity, and wages. While they don’t significantly change total hours worked, they may be a threat to low- and middle-skilled workers.
Dan Steinbock (FA) Mar 18, 2015
How Beijing is handling local liabilities.
Tom Keatinge (FA) Mar 18, 2015
How overregulation chokes the flow of remittances to Somalia.
Martin Wolf (FT) Mar 19, 2015
The government made three arguments for accelerated austerity. None was persuasive.
Robert Shrimsley (FT) Mar 19, 2015
Obama is displeased with Cameron over the AIIB.
Ralph Atkins (FT) Mar 19, 2015
Euro fall shows disruptive potential of central banks.
Peter Wallison and Daniel Gallagher (WSJ) Mar 21, 2015
The Fed and Treasury are answering to a board of the G-20 without admitting it to the American people.
Simeon Djankov (PIIE) Mar 19, 2015
The Central Bank of Russia has published its 3-year forecast for economic growth in 2015-17. The forecast, released on March 14, is so overly optimistic that three comments are in order.
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 10 Mar 19, 2015
Chief negotiators from the 12 Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) countries wrapped up a weeklong meeting in the US state of Hawaii on Sunday evening, as part of a concerted push to conclude an agreement in the coming months.
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 10 Mar 19, 2015
The launch of a 26-country African trade deal will now take place in June during the third Tripartite Summit between the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), the East African Community (EAC), and Southern African Development Community (SADC), sources have confirmed.
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 10 Mar 19, 2015
A planned April summit between the EU and India has been cancelled, officials confirmed, leaving unclear when the next opportunity might be to reboot bilateral trade talks between the trading partners.
Roland Kelts (Long+Short) Mar 19, 2015
Coping with stasis: how the supposed 'sick man of Asia' might be a model for us all.
Frank Vogl (Globalist) Mar 19, 2015
Corruption stretching from China to Brazil has left economic stagnation in its wake.
Rebecca Harding (Pieria) Mar 19, 2015
Raising interest rates would be damaging to the prospects for long-term economic growth in the US.
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Mar 19, 2015
The central bank should be seeking to bolster property prices outside Tokyo, too.
Bloomberg View Mar 19, 2015
China makes its bid for a seat at the table of the international economic order.
Bloomberg View Mar 19, 2015
To rescue Brazil's economy and her presidency, Dilma Rousseff needs to back her new finance minister to the hilt.
Lee Jong-Wha (Project Syndicate) Mar 19, 2015
Despite recent economic uncertainty, Asia’s middle class is growing fast. In the coming decades, this burgeoning demographic segment will serve as a keystone for economic and political development in the region, with significant implications for the rest of the world.
Jeffrey D. Sachs (Project Syndicate) Mar 19, 2015
Of all of the investments needed to achieve sustainable development, none is more important than a quality education for every child. The time has come to create a Global Fund for Education to ensure that even the world’s poorest children have the chance to receive a quality education at least through secondary school.
Robert Heller (Project Syndicate) Mar 19, 2015
There is a big difference between the US Federal Reserve’s mandate to maintain “stable prices” – as enunciated in the Federal Reserve Act – and the Fed’s self-selected target of 2% annual inflation. So how is it that policymakers have managed to substitute the latter for the former?
Tito Boeri, Pietro Garibaldi and Espen R. Moen (VoxEU) Mar 19, 2015
The Great Recession sparked the interest in the link between financial conditions and employment. This column describes results from a new model of labour and finance, incorporating financial imperfections and borrowing constraints. The results uncover a complementarity between firms holding cash and labour market imperfections. Firms embedded into better functioning financial sectors are, on average, less inclined to hold cash. In addition, a more financially integrated system would dismiss more labour, explaining the higher increase of unemployment in the US compared to Europe.
David Malpass (WSJ) Feb 20, 2015
The decision to hike rates may get harder as the year progresses.
NYT Mar 20, 2015
Discussions about a new loan agreement seem to be going even worse than expected.
NYT Mar 20, 2015
In significant ways, the flocking of Western nations to a potential World Bank rival is a problem of America’s own making.
The Banker Mar 20, 2015
The sovereign risk weight subsidy is an obvious target for regulators looking to shore up bank balance sheets, but getting rid of it will be easier said than done.
Dhiraj Nayyar (Bloomberg View) Mar 20, 2015
Give them title to their land -- and let them sell it.
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Mar 20, 2015
Two taboos about Greece's future as a member of the euro were broken this week as the nation's financial future looks increasingly shaky.
Andrew Sheng and Xiao Geng (Project Syndicate) Mar 20, 2015
The key to understanding China’s development path is to grasp the process of trial and error that has long guided policymaking. In such a context of experimentation, mistakes are to be expected; what matters is how the country's leaders respond to them.
NYT Mar 21, 2015
President Dilma Rousseff, who has been an underwhelming leader, would be wise to spend more energy looking outward.
Economist Mar 21, 2015
As Western countries sign up to China’s development bank, America is wrong to turn its back.
Sergei Guriev and Daniel Treisman (VoxEU) Mar 21, 2015
In recent decades, new forms of dictatorship based on manipulating information rather than on mass violence, have emerged. This column explores the trade-offs and techniques of the modern dictator. Such dictators can survive using little violence in the face of moderate economic underperformance. Economic downturns often prompt an increase in censorship and propaganda. Though new information-based dictatorships are better adapted to a modernised society, modernisation and access to information, as well as economic contractions could undermine them.
Kate Burgess (FT) Mar 22, 2015
Decline highlights need to balance investment protection with encouragement.
Wolfgang Munchau (FT) Mar 22, 2015
Programme’s impact unknown without evidence of how the policy transmits to the real economy.
Ralph Atkins, Sam Fleming and Claire Jones (FT) Mar 22, 2015
There are signs Europe’s economy is turning a corner, but will dollar strength curb the US recovery?
Paul Krugman (NYT) Mar 22, 2015
A misleading fixation on budget deficits has become entrenched despite, not because of, what serious economists had to say.
Bloomberg View Mar 22, 2015
If there's such a thing as 'Asian capitalism,' its spark, smartest proponent and most controversial symbol was the founder of the region's smallest country: Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew.
Bloomberg View Mar 22, 2015
The Trans-Pacific Partnership would be good for everyone.
Clive Crook (Bloomberg View) Mar 22, 2015
In economic development, broad principles will only get you so far.
Maia Güell, Giovanni Pica, Michele Pellizzari and José V. Rodríguez Mora (VoxEU) Mar 23, 2015
We apply a novel measure of intergenerational mobility (IM) developed by Güell, Rodríguez Mora, and Telmer (2014) to a rich combination of Italian data allowing us to produce comparable measures of IM of income for 103 Italian provinces. We then exploit the large heterogeneity across Italian provinces in terms of economic and social outcomes to explore how IM correlates with a variety of outcomes. We find that (i) higher IM is positively associated with a variety of “good” economic outcomes, such as higher value added per capita, higher employment, lower unemployment, higher schooling and higher openness and (ii) that also within Italy the “the Great Gatsby Curve” exists: in provinces in which mobility is lower cross-sectional income inequality is larger. We finally explore the correlation between IM and several socio-political outcomes, such as crime and life expectancy, but we do not find any clear systematic relationship on this respect.
Gideon Rachman (FT) Mar 23, 2015
Fear of immigration and anger at elite corruption, as well as austerity, bolster extreme politics.
Mark Leonard (FT) Mar 23, 2015
Rising geopolitical tensions are turning corporations into global pawns.
Kishore Mahbubani (FT) Mar 23, 2015
Political rumblings in Singapore can be heard.
David Riley (FT) Mar 23, 2015
US rate rise journey likely to be turbulent.
Henny Sender (FT) Mar 23, 2015
Investors sit on sidelines as carry trade risks outweigh rewards.
Chris Buckley (NYT) Mar 23, 2015
His decades leading Singapore gave Chinese officials a model of how to navigate economic and social transformations without politically capsizing.
Shihoko Goto (Globalist) Mar 23, 2015
Global economic diplomacy gets more complicated as China plays its cards.
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Mar 23, 2015
There are good reasons for a Chinese state company to buy tire maker Pirelli, but European governments should be wary of such deals.
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Mar 23, 2015
Radical parties performed well in regional elections in Spain and France, but they stopped short of winning. The mainstream parties' cause is far from lost.
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Mar 23, 2015
Out-of-control margin lending is driving China toward a crash.
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Mar 23, 2015
The U.S. Federal Reserve and European officials are confusing calm markets and high asset prices with smart economic and monetary policy.
James Surowiecki (New Yorker) Mar 23, 2015
How takedown artists can keep the market honest.
Jeffrey Frankel (Project Syndicate) Mar 23, 2015
As the Federal Reserve moves closer to initiating one of the most long-awaited and widely predicted periods of rising short-term interest rates in the US, many are asking how emerging markets will be affected. The answer depends on whether countries have adhered to the lessons of the 1980s and 1990s.
IMF Survey Mar 23, 2015
Amid concerns over a “new mediocre” in the global economy, trade should be seen as an integral part of the plan for increasing global growth over the medium term, the IMF says in its regular five-year review of trade, that also discusses key issues for the IMF’s work agenda.
Òscar Jordà, Moritz Schularick, and Alan M. Taylor (FRBSF Economic Letter) Mar 23, 2015
In the six decades following World War II, bank lending measured as a ratio to GDP has quadrupled in advanced economies. To a great extent, this unprecedented expansion of credit was driven by a dramatic growth in mortgage loans. Lending backed by real estate has allowed households to leverage up and has changed the traditional business of banking in fundamental ways. This “Great Mortgaging” has had a profound influence on the dynamics of business cycles.
Miles Johnson and Gavin Jackson (FT) Mar 24, 2015
FT analysis highlights unusual trading patterns over the past two years.
Martin Wolf (FT) Mar 24, 2015
It would be good if the lender were white as snow. But this is a fallen world.
Henny Sender (FT) Mar 24, 2015
Investors sit on sidelines as carry trade risks outweigh rewards.
WSJ Mar 24, 2015
Creditors no longer fear that Greece might leave the euro.
Daniel Stelter (Globalist) Mar 24, 2015
10 points on what Germany needs to do to save the Eurozone — and safeguard Germany’s own interests.
Barry Ritholtz (Bloomberg View) Mar 24, 2015
It isn't always easy to tell when we're in a short-term cyclical stock market or long-term secular market.
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Mar 24, 2015
There are surprising signs of life to be glimpsed in the euro-region economy that aren't reflected in stock, bond or currency markets.
Marc Champion (Bloomberg View) Mar 24, 2015
Ukraine's debt standoff is about more than just the losses creditors might incur.
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Mar 24, 2015
Including the yuan among the world's reserve currencies would give a boost to reformers at home.
Simon Johnson (Project Syndicate) Mar 24, 2015
Currency manipulation is a real problem that causes significant damage. The Trans-Pacific Partnership – the mega-regional free-trade agreement involving the US, Japan, and ten other countries in Latin America and Asia – may offer the best chance to fix it.
Robert Skidelsky (Project Syndicate) Mar 24, 2015
Once beliefs and expectations are introduced into economics, as is surely reasonable, the results of fiscal and monetary policy become indeterminate. Too much depends on what people think the results of the policy will be.
Rodger Baker and John Minnich (Stratfor) Mar 24, 2015
Last week, China's anti-corruption campaign took a significant turn, though a largely overlooked one.
Mohamed El-Erian (FT) Mar 25, 2015
Officials with little governing experience risk eroding their credibility.
Joseph Nye (FT) Mar 25, 2015
Entropy is a greater challenge than Chinese growth.
Tony Barber (FT) Mar 25, 2015
Voters struck by lack of jobs, debt and squeezed living standards are rejecting alleged political cheats.
Scott Minerd (FT) Mar 25, 2015
Prospect of improvement in growth is largely a monetary illusion.
Guy Chazan and Roman Olearchyk (FT) Mar 25, 2015
Kiev acts on fears that Igor Kolomoisky amassed too much power as a regional governor.
Michael Jarnard and Kevin Stahler (PIIE) Mar 25, 2015
It has been almost two years since the great "taper tantrum." In June 2013, financial markets interpreted statements by the chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke as suggesting that a tighter monetary policy was in the offing when that was apparently not his intention.
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Mar 25, 2015
Of the three things cited for depressing U.S. middle-class wages -- robots, weakening unions and China -- only China matters.
Chandrahas Choudhury (Bloomberg View) Mar 25, 2015
Indian democracy has many problems, but the widely held idea that the country has “too much democracy,” and needs a little splash of authoritarianism to knock it into shape, is a mistake.
Yanis Varoufakis (Project Syndicate) Mar 25, 2015
In 2010, Greece had no right to borrow from German – or any other European – taxpayers, while its public debt was unsustainable. Five years later, the consequences of that decision – open animosity toward and from Germany, a humanitarian crisis, and a mountain of unserviceable debt – could not be clearer.
Sami Mahroum and Elif Bascavusoglu-Moreau (Project Syndicate) Mar 25, 2015
As machines become smarter, the mutually reinforcing relationship between technological progress and human prosperity seems to be growing weaker. But some countries seem to have figured out how to sustain the old dynamic, ensuring that technological innovation benefits all.
Yannos Papantoniou (Project Syndicate) Mar 25, 2015
After years of crisis, European Union leaders must recover the capacity, displayed by the EU's founders, to look ahead. Specifically, they should introduce a mechanism for fiscal transfers from stronger to weaker economies.
Jorge G. Castañeda (Project Syndicate) Mar 25, 2015
For the last 15 years, major Latin American countries have largely ignored the crisis in Venezuela, refusing to condemn or support its leadership's incompetence and abuses. Now that President Barack Obama has decided to classify Venezuela formally as a “national security threat” to the US, this is about to change.
George F. Will (WP) Mar 25, 2015
Leaving wealth in the hands of the wealthy, an author argues, is the best way to benefit all Americans.
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Mar 25, 2015
That slump ought to weigh heavily on the Fed as it ponders what to do next.
Rebecca Harding (Pieria) Mar 25, 2015
China's behaviour suggests it is creating a new role for the yuan in world trade.
Philip Stephens (FT) Mar 26, 2015
British opportunism met with US fumbling.
Mohamed El-Erian (FT) Mar 26, 2015
Officials with little governing experience risk eroding their credibility.
Joseph Nye (FT) Mar 26, 2015
Entropy is a greater challenge than Chinese growth.
Lionel Barber, Robin Harding and Kana Inagaki (FT) Mar 26, 2015
Prime minister says Tokyo deserves more credit for its progress.
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 11 Mar 26, 2015
New negotiating papers tabled last week have reopened old rifts on farm trade rules and food security at the WTO, trade sources have said.
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 11 Mar 26, 2015
EU officials are now weighing potential ideas for addressing the controversial subject of investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) in their trade talks with the US, with European Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström holding meetings in recent weeks with both EU parliamentarians and trade ministers to present some preliminary ideas.
John West (Globalist) Mar 26, 2015
China’s total debt is now greater than that of the United States, creating uncertainty about its future.
Kent Troutman (PIIE) Mar 26, 2015
In a 2013 working paper, Aurel Schubert-the head of the Statistical Department at the European Central Bank (ECB)-and his coauthors wrote that: "Growing current account deficits, especially in the United States and some EU countries, have contrasted with large current account surpluses in some other EU countries, in the oil-exporting economies and in many East Asian economies, notably China.
Minxin Pei (Project Syndicate) Mar 27, 2015
The system that Lee Kuan Yew crafted during his 31 years as Prime Minister of Singapore is often mischaracterized as a one-party dictatorship superimposed on a free-market economy. But Lee's true genius was in using democratic institutions and the rule of law to curb the predatory appetite of his country's ruling elite.
Hans-Werner Sinn (Project Syndicate) Mar 26, 2015
Rescue packages have relieved the eurozone’s financial distress, but at a high cost. Not only have they enabled investors to avoid paying for their poor decisions; they have also allowed overpriced southern European countries to defer real depreciation, which is necessary to restore competitiveness.
Michael Spence (Project Syndicate) Mar 26, 2015
Since the global economic crisis, sharp divergences in economic performance have contributed to significant stock-market volatility. Now, stocks are reaching relatively high levels by conventional measures – and it is difficult to discern precisely why.
Luis Alberto Moreno (Project Syndicate) Mar 26, 2015
The Summit of the Americas in Panama City will focus on how to support inclusive growth in the Latin American and Caribbean economies, which have lately taken a major hit from falling commodities prices. Any strategy will have to boost the region's resilience to the next wave of automation.
Ana-Maria Fuertes, Elena Kalotychou and Orkun Saka (VoxEU) Mar 26, 2015
Recent debt crises have brought the fragility of the Eurozone into focus. It has been argued that members are vulnerable to sudden changes in market sentiment. This column examines how debt markets reacted to an ECB announcement that it would serve as a lender of last resort, finding that recent debt crises have strong self-fulfilling dynamics.
Frank Vogl (Globalist) Mar 27, 2015
The outflows of illicit cash from Latin America are a staggering tax on its citizens.
Mark Whitehouse (Bloomberg View) Mar 27, 2015
Emerging markets have borrowed a lot in dollars. Now those debts are getting harder to pay back.
A. Gary Shilling (Bloomberg View) Mar 27, 2015
The Fed won't be raising rates anytime soon, and that means Treasury prices are sure to rise.
Barry Ritholtz (Bloomberg View) Mar 27, 2015
Those who predicted a rise in interest rates in the past were wrong, and there's no reason to think rates will rise soon.
Martin Feldstein (Project Syndicate) Mar 27, 2015
At this year’s China Development Forum, virtually every official in attendance accepted that GDP growth will continue to slow. They now seem to understand that this will not fuel unemployment, because the slowdown reflects China’s structural shift from heavy industry to more employment-intensive consumer services.
Ricardo Hausmann (Project Syndicate) Mar 27, 2015
For some reason, achieving a level of investment that would generate full employment seems to require negative real interest rates, which is another way of saying that people have to be paid to invest. In fact, to harness the possibilities of new technology, we may need non-market forms of payment for valuable contributions.
Richard C. Bush III (Brookings) Mar 27, 2015
China will soon have the largest GDP in the world, but how will Chinese leaders manage their country’s growing economic clout?
Daron Acemoglu, Asuman Ozdaglar and Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi (VoxEU) Mar 27, 2015
Understanding large economic downturns is one of macroeconomics’ central goals. This column argues that imbalances in input-output linkages can interact with firm-level shocks to produce output fluctuations that are much larger than the underlying shocks. The result can be large cycles arising from small, firm-level shocks. It is thus important to study the determinants of large economic downturns separately. Macroeconomic tail risks may vary significantly even across economies that exhibit otherwise identical behaviour for moderate deviations.
Jillian Keenan (FP) Mar 27, 2015
In one of Africa’s most densely populated countries, brothers are killing brothers over the right to farm mere acres of earth. There’s just not enough land to go around in Burundi — and it could push the country into civil war.
Andrei Kolesnikov (Project Syndicate) Mar 28, 2015
The Western approach to Russia assumes that continued pressure on the country will cause President Vladimir Putin's regime to make concessions or even crumble. But, as recent opinion polls suggest, such an approach is less likely to undermine the regime than to cause Russians to close ranks in Putin’s defense.
Lucy P. Marcus (Project Syndicate) Mar 28, 2015
Once upon a time, analysts could easily categorize companies and tell the markets what they were worth, boards could oversee firms with a view to shareholders’ happiness, and all was right in the world. But that world is disappearing before our eyes.
Zhang Jun (Project Syndicate ) Mar 28, 2015
Despite rapid credit expansion in the last two years, China's GDP growth has decelerated sharply. This disparity reflects the accumulation of massive debts, which require an ever-increasing amount of liquidity to service.
Morgan Kelly & Cormac Ó Gráda (VoxEU) Mar 28, 2015
The Little Ice Age is generally seen as a major event in European history. Analysing a variety of recent weather reconstructions, this column finds that European weather appears constant from the Middle Ages until 1900, and that events like the freezing of the Thames and the disappearance of English vineyards have simpler explanations than changing climate. It appears instead that the European Little Ice Age is a statistical artefact, where the standard climatological practice of smoothing what turn out to be white noise data prior to analysis gives the spurious appearance of irregular oscillation – a Slutsky Effect.
Andy Kessler (WSJ) Mar 29, 2015
Too many funds are chasing too few opportunities, and many of those will be too expensive. It won’t end well.
Mary Anastasia O’Grady (WSJ) Mar 29, 2015
Corruption scandals give the left an opening in the 2016 presidential election.
Guonan Ma (EAF/Bruegel) Mar 29, 2015
The Chinese economy is simply too big to remain tied to the once useful monetary anchor of the renminbi–US dollar peg. It is time to let it go.
Clive Crook (Bloomberg View) Mar 29, 2015
A system of government cannot be good if it stakes everything on the emergence of a uniquely gifted individual.
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Mar 29, 2015
Officials at the Bank of England have looked at the same economic evidence and produced three different monetary-policy prescriptions.
NYT Mar 30, 2015
The world is still far too reliant on the United States, which itself has not yet fully recovered from the financial crisis.
Patrick Jenkins (FT) Mar 30, 2015
Effective regulatory crackdown may come too late.
Philip Augar (FT) Mar 30, 2015
A ‘national grid’ would end the big banks’ control of infrastructure.
Tony Barber (FT) Mar 30, 2015
The EU’s 2003 document was a classic ‘soft power’ statement.
Andrei Nekrasov (FT) Mar 30, 2015
Its nationalistic hue is supplied by what Russians see as an external threat.
Martin Hüfner (Globalist) Mar 30, 2015
By raising real wages, Germany has launched itself into a new period of growth.
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Mar 30, 2015
Before asserting itself abroad, China needs to get its financial house in order.
Jeffrey D. Sachs (Project Syndicate) Mar 30, 2015
The Sustainable Development Goals will continue the fight begun by the Millennium Development Goals against extreme poverty, and add targets relating to inclusiveness and environmental sustainability. But will a new set of goals actually be able to catalyze a shift from business as usual to true sustainable development?
J. Bradford DeLong (Project Syndicate) Mar 30, 2015
The inadequate response to the Great Recession reflects policymakers' acceptance of Milton Friedman's analysis of the Great Depression. And yet the dominance of Friedman's monetarism has less to do with the evidence supporting it than with the fact that economics is all too often tainted by politics.
George Soros (Project Syndicate) Mar 30, 2015
Ukraine has reached a critical point in its survival struggle; but so, too, has the European Union. And the line beyond which all possible scenarios worsen – for Ukraine and the EU alike – may be just days or weeks away.
Andrés Velasco (Project Syndicate) Mar 30, 2015
The emerging-market debt crises of the recent past could not only happen again today; they could happen on a much larger scale than in the past. Taking advantage of ultra-low interest rates in the advanced countries, emerging-market banks and firms have been borrowing like never before.
Stephen S. Roach (Project Syndicate) Mar 30, 2015
China is generating a lot of confusion nowadays, both at home, where officials now tout the economy’s “new normal” but are unclear about what it is, and abroad, where the US is embracing “containment” of China’s rise. On both counts, the disconnects are striking, adding a new dimension of risk to a fragile world.
Javier Solana (Project Syndicate) Mar 30, 2015
The West has failed to accord China — much less the other major emerging economies — the degree of influence over global governance structures that it merits. But this is about to change, because China has decided that it will no longer sit still for it.
Tom Mitchell (FT) Mar 31, 2015
Western investors kept waiting in the courtyard of the energy, rail and telecoms sectors.
Martin Wolf (FT) Mar 31, 2015
Accidental exit from the eurozone is quite likely — not because Greece or its partners want it.
John Kay (FT) Mar 31, 2015
Air travel is safe and its investigation process transparent — the contrast with finance could hardly be greater.
Dominic Barton and Mark Wiseman (FT) Mar 31, 2015
The biggest rewards should go to managers who think long-term.
Laurence Mutkin (FT) Mar 31, 2015
Three reasons why rising prices are expected despite current zero rates.
James Crabtree (FT) Mar 31, 2015
Failure to boost energy supplies will hurt Modi’s goal of turning India into a manufacturing force.
Edward P. Lazear (WSJ) Mar 31, 2015
In 1981, half of the developing world earned less than $1.25 daily. By 2011, the portion had dropped to 17%.
Holman Jenkins (WSJ) Mar 31, 2015
With storage tanks full, panickers have no place to hoard oil in response to Middle East fears.
Katrina vanden Heuvel (WP) Mar 31, 2015
The rules are rigged in favor of the 1 percent.
Edwin M. Truman (PIIE) Mar 31, 2015
Ukraine won a reprieve from its economic and financial crisis on March 11, when the executive board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a $17.5 billion economic and financial support program, invoking the Fund's policy of providing exceptional (abnormally large) access to IMF financial resources in extreme circumstances.
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Mar 31, 2015
By joining the AIIB, the U.S. would increase the likelihood the bank would be designed as an efficient supplement to existing institutions, rather than a costly substitute.
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Mar 31, 2015
Japan's weak exchange rate is exporting deflation to the region. South Korea has been particularly hard hit.
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Mar 31, 2015
The Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal would help the U.S.'s most important Asian ally a lot.
Stephen Mihm (Bloomberg View) Mar 31, 2015
Both contango and its doppelganger, backwardation, originated in Britain in the 19th century to describe futures trading.
Noah Feldman (Bloomberg View) Mar 31, 2015
Rhodes wanted to lessen hostility between Britain and a rising world power, Germany. Same idea with the West and China today.
Justin Fox (Bloomberg View) Mar 31, 2015
Regulators have discovered that professional investors run with the herd, inflating bubbles and making busts worse.
Martin Hutchinson (Globalist) Mar 31, 2015
Current trends in demographics and national budgets will leave the elderly of the future in dire straits.
Nouriel Roubini (Project Syndicate) Mar 31, 2015
The latest economic data from the eurozone suggest that recovery may finally be at hand. But a more robust and sustained upturn in job creation and income growth still faces a broad array of daunting challenges.
Laura Tyson and Jonathan Woetzel (Project Syndicate) Mar 31, 2015
While rapid economic growth, such as that realized over the past 50 years, is critical to support development, we now also know that it can have serious adverse consequences, particularly for the environment. How can we balance the imperatives of growth and development with the need to ensure sustainability?
Jean Pisani-Ferry (Project Syndicate) Mar 31, 2015
The risks posed by larger public deficits have focused attention on “potential output growth,” a concept originally created by economists for economists. The concept's imprecision and volatility have weakened the EU’s fiscal pact, and Europe's leaders need to reconsider their approach.
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