News & Commentary:

Articles/Commentary

The Argentina Comeback
WSJ Mar 1, 2016
Macri leads his nation toward a return to global capital markets.

Ukraine: Fantastically Corrupt
Simeon Djankov (PIIE) Mar 1, 2016
Ukraine is again failing to break away from its corrupt, oligarchic post-communist transition. The high hopes for reducing corruption after the Euromaidan revolution have faded, and the country is looking for new leadership in an unlikely place: Georgia.

The Trump Effect on China
Jean-Pierre Lehmann (Globalist) Mar 1, 2016
Donald Trump and prospects for democracy and xenophobic populism in China.

Deflation Defeats Impotent Central Banks
A Gary Shilling (Bloomberg View) Mar 1, 2016
The guardians of monetary policy are pushing on a string.

Is Europe Worth the Effort?
Jean Pisani-Ferry (Project Syndicate) Mar 1, 2016
One hopes that the EU membership debate, now that it has begun in the United Kingdom, will be honest enough for everyone in Europe to learn from it. The main question, however, is whether the pragmatic argument for remaining in the EU – the focus of the pro-Europe camp in the UK – will be enough.

A Russian Fire-Sale Privatization?
Sergei Guriev (Project Syndicate) Mar 1, 2016
Faced with a rapidly deteriorating fiscal position, Russia's government has announced that it will privatize major state-owned firms. This is a promising step, but without institutional reforms and a re-engagement with the West, its impact on revenues and economic efficiency will be severely diminished.

Will Brexit Break the Pound?
Harold James (Project Syndicate) Mar 1, 2016
The British government's recent announcement that a referendum on the UK’s EU membership will be held on June 23 was quickly followed by a sharp decline in the value of the pound. The risk is that such volatility – and the accompanying political instability – could drive British voters to reject the EU.

As Trade Tumbles, China and Russia Inaugurate New Rail Line?
Gordon G. Chang (WA) Mar 1, 2016
s trade between China and Russia plummets along with their economies, a new rail line suggests these former rivals' vision for a meaningful strategic partnership will endure.

China’s Coming Ideological Wars
Taisu Zhang (FP) Mar 1, 2016
Economic growth reigned supreme in China's reform era. But now, a revival of competing beliefs is polarizing Chinese society.

Fighting Wall Street Predators with Game Theory
David Sloan Wilson (Evonomics) Mar 1, 2016
Punishing the financial defectors.

What China Could Learn From Richard Nixon
Sebastian Mallaby (Atlantic/CFR) Mar 1, 2016
China's economic slowdown today resembles that of the United States in the 1970s. Though downshifting is always painful, politicians often make it worse, and Nixon's resistance to accepting a new economic reality is a lesson for Chinese leaders. Read more »

Demographic Upheaval
David E. Bloom (F&D) Mar 1, 2016
The world will struggle with population growth, aging, migration, and urbanization.

Older and Smaller
Benedict Clements, Kamil Dybczak, and Mauricio Soto (F&D) Mar 1, 2016
The fiscal consequences of shrinking and aging populations threaten advanced and emerging market economies alike.

She Is the Answer
Yuko Kinoshita and Kalpana Kochhar (F&D) Mar 1, 2016
Women can help offset the problems of an aging population and a shrinking workforce.

Age and Inflation
Mikael Juselius and Elöd Takáts (F&D) Mar 1, 2016
Baby boomers drove down inflation when they joined the workforce and will drive it up as they retire.

Surf the Demographic Wave
Vimal Thakoor and John Wakeman-Linn (F&D) Mar 1, 2016
Sub-Saharan Africa could reap significant benefits from its growing population—if the transition is well managed.

$30 a Barrel
Masood Ahmed (F&D) Mar 1, 2016
Oil exporters in the Middle East and North Africa must adjust to low oil prices.

A Move South
Rabah Arezki, Frederick van der Ploeg, and Frederik Toscani (F&D) Mar 1, 2016
A growing number of large resource finds are in the developing world, reflecting growing openness in their economies

Opening Up to Inequity
Davide Furceri and Prakash Loungani (F&D) Mar 1, 2016
After countries remove restrictions on capital flows, inequality often gets worse

The Truth about Banks
Michael Kumhof and Zoltán Jakab (F&D) Mar 1, 2016
Banks create new money when they lend, which can trigger and amplify financial cycles

India Can Lock in Good Fortune with Private Investment, Structural Reforms
IMF Survey Mar 2, 2016
Positive policy actions together with the decline in oil prices have helped make India one of the fastest-growing large economies in the world. Its resilience, however, is being tested by an unfavorable global environment and a slow investment recovery, says the IMF.

The rise of the robots – friend or foe for developing countries?
Johannes Jütting and Christopher Garroway (OECD Insights) Mar 2, 2016
The consequences for the work force in both developing and developed countries will be huge.

The Upside of Plunging Oil Prices
Bloomberg View Mar 2, 2016
"Oilmageddon" hits some of the world's most unsavory regimes where it hurts.

What Happens When Global Trade Goes Virtual
Justin Fox (Bloomberg View) Mar 2, 2016
Perhaps globalization isn't done for.

China’s Illusory Global Leadership
Kent Harrington (Project Syndicate) Mar 2, 2016
Chinese President Xi Jinping is trying hard to portray his country as a global power ready to assume a broader international role. But China's continued reliance on a resource-based approach to development assistance, not to mention its reluctance to help address humanitarian crises, is doing little for the cause.

The Politics of Financial Volatility
Alexander Friedman (Project Syndicate) Mar 2, 2016
The world’s political and economic leaders have ranged far and wide in search of reasons for the recent spike in global financial volatility. But they should focus closer to home: Politics is largely to blame – not only in the West, but also in China and emerging markets from Brazil to Russia.

2008 Revisited?
Nouriel Roubini (Project Syndicate) Mar 2, 2016
Two dismal months for financial markets may give way to a relief rally for global equities, as some key central banks ease policy more, while others will remain on hold for longer. But repeated eruptions from seven sources of global tail risk will make the rest of this year a bad one for risk assets and anemic for global growth.

Ever Closer Union or Common Market?
Joschka Fischer (Project Syndicate) Mar 2, 2016
Like the British, many Continental Europeans are asking whether transnational regulation by Brussels-based institutions and a political union are actually necessary. Wouldn’t a loose association of sovereign nation-states, sharing a hard economic core of a continental common market – the British model – be enough?

The implications of Brexit for the rest of the EU
Willem Buiter, Ebrahim Rahbari and Christian Schulz (VoxEU) Mar 2, 2016
Britain will hold a referendum on whether to stay or leave the EU. Current polls point a very close vote. This column argues that Brexit could have serious economic and political consequences for the rest of the EU. The economic and financial frictions could be limited if both parties try to strike an amicable separation agreement. But political considerations, including the desire of the rest of the EU to prevent Brexit emulation, might result in a far more damaging outcome, not just for the UK. Britain will hold a referendum on whether to stay or leave the EU. Current polls point a very close vote. This column argues that Brexit could have serious economic and political consequences for the rest of the EU. The economic and financial frictions could be limited if both parties try to strike an amicable separation agreement. But political considerations, including the desire of the rest of the EU to prevent Brexit emulation, might result in a far more damaging outcome, not just for the UK.

Regulatory treatment of sovereign debt
Peter Goves, Michael Spies and Alessandro Tentori (VoxEU) Mar 2, 2016
Sovereign risk and its treatment by European banks is a frequently debated topic. In particular, regulators are focusing on zero risk weighting and large exposure limits. This column argues that redesigning the macroprudential framework for sovereign risk management will be a key theme in the years to come. Depending on the exact outcome, the structure of the EZ bond market might look very different from its current shape. This could have far-reaching consequences for both the ECB’s monetary policy strategy and investors alike. Sovereign risk and its treatment by European banks is a frequently debated topic. In particular, regulators are focusing on zero risk weighting and large exposure limits. This column argues that redesigning the macroprudential framework for sovereign risk management will be a key theme in the years to come. Depending on the exact outcome, the structure of the EZ bond market might look very different from its current shape. This could have far-reaching consequences for both the ECB’s monetary policy strategy and investors alike.

Boris, ‘Brexit’ and Cameron’s Miscalculation
Ian Birrell (WSJ) Mar 2, 2016
The U.K. referendum on staying in Europe has been twisted into a struggle for the Tory party leadership.

Xi Jinping’s Remedy for China’s Economic Gloom Has Echoes of Reaganomics
Chris Buckley (NYT) Mar 3, 2016
“Supply-side structural reform” represents an effort to rejuvenate President Xi Jinping’s faltering plans to overhaul the Chinese economy.

The World Is Stuck With Persistent Stagnation
Stephen Roach (YaleGlobal) Mar 3, 2016
Economists expect the world economy to be more resilient than any of its parts, with recessions typically affecting only a few of the 200 economies at a time. Yet the world is gradually following the pattern of Japan, the world’s third largest economy, in struggling with persistent stagnation.

The Robots Are Coming
K@W Mar 2, 2016
How the Automation Revolution Will Impact Jobs -- Including Yours

It’s Time to Abandon the Pursuit for Great Leaders
Stephen M. Walt (FP) Mar 3, 2016
From Napoleon to Donald Trump, it has always been tempting to empower individuals who seem extraordinary. It has also always been a mistake.

China's Rebalancing Is Overrated
Christopher Balding (Bloomberg View) Mar 3, 2016
The new economy still looks a lot like the old one.

Austrian U-Turn Is Good News for Bank Bonds
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Mar 3, 2016
Governments need to stop messing with bank bonds.

Time for Helicopter Money?
Kemal Dervis (Project Syndicate) Mar 3, 2016
With swollen balance sheets and near-zero (if not negative) interest rates, central banks seem to have run out of ammunition. But policymakers have one more option: a shift to “purer” fiscal policy, in which they directly finance government spending by printing money.

The Global Economy’s Stealth Resilience
Ngaire Woods (Project Syndicate) Mar 3, 2016
Last week, G-20 finance ministers and central-bank governors gathered in Shanghai, where they failed to agree any genuine coordinated monetary- or fiscal-policy action. But, contrary to the impression given by the IMF and the OECD, this may not be a bad thing.

A Latin American Spring?
Luis Alberto Moreno (Project Syndicate) Mar 3, 2016
As corruption scandals rock Latin America, many observers are asking if the region will ever shake off its legacy of weak institutions. A recent dramatic shift in the way Latin American populations respond to news of corruption suggests that it can.

Brexit, ‘euro-ins’, and ‘euro-outs’
Nauro F. Campos and Corrado Macchiarelli (VoxEU) Mar 3, 2016
There seems to be a robust consensus that the relationship between the countries in the EU that use the euro as their currency (‘euro-ins’) and those that do not (‘euro-outs’) is the most important of the four areas in the ‘new settlement’ between the UK and the EU. This column presents new econometric estimates showing that, after the introduction of the euro, the UK and Eurozone business cycles became significantly more synchronised. It is likely this upsurge in synchronisation increased the costs of a potential UK exit from the EU. There seems to be a robust consensus that the relationship between the countries in the EU that use the euro as their currency (‘euro-ins’) and those that do not (‘euro-outs’) is the most important of the four areas in the ‘new settlement’ between the UK and the EU. This column presents new econometric estimates showing that, after the introduction of the euro, the UK and Eurozone business cycles became significantly more synchronised. It is likely this upsurge in synchronisation increased the costs of a potential UK exit from the EU.

Silicon Valley Has Not Saved Us From a Productivity Slowdown
Tyler Cowen (NYT) Mar 4, 2016
New research questions the notion, popular in tech circles, that the benefits of technology are making up for mediocre gains in productivity and wages.

Economic Growth After the Arab Spring
Ishac Diwan (Project Syndicate) Mar 4, 2016
Though Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia have achieved reasonable levels of political stability since the Arab Spring uprisings began five years ago, economic growth remains tepid. Given the region’s large catch-up potential and young workforces, one must ask why this is so.

The Limits of Capitalism with Communist Characteristics
Brahma Chellaney (Project Syndicate) Mar 4, 2016
As US President Barack Obama prepares to embark on an historic visit to Cuba, the future of the communist-ruled island is the subject of widespread speculation, with some observers hoping that the ongoing shift toward capitalism will naturally lead Cuba toward democracy. Experience suggests otherwise.

Ending the privileges for sovereign exposures in banking regulation
Jochen Andritzky, Niklas Gadatsch, Tobias Körner, Alexander Schäfer and Isabel Schnabel (VoxEU) Mar 4, 2016
The excessive exposure of banks to sovereign debt continues to threaten the stability of the Eurozone. Based on a recent proposal by the German Council of Economic Experts, this column suggests steps towards severing the sovereign-bank nexus. The loss-absorption capacity of banks could be increased through risk-adjusted large exposure limits and risk-adequate capital requirements. The excessive exposure of banks to sovereign debt continues to threaten the stability of the Eurozone. Based on a recent proposal by the German Council of Economic Experts, this column suggests steps towards severing the sovereign-bank nexus. The loss-absorption capacity of banks could be increased through risk-adjusted large exposure limits and risk-adequate capital requirements.

Life after Brexit: The UK’s options outside the EU
Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson (VoxEU) Mar 4, 2016
In June, UK voters will decide whether to remain part of the EU. This column explores the UK’s options if a majority votes in favour of Brexit. One possibility is for the UK, like Norway, to join the European Economic Area and thereby retain access to the European Single Market. An alternative would be to negotiate bilateral treaties with the EU, as Switzerland has done. All options, however, involve a trade-off between political sovereignty and economic benefits. In June, UK voters will decide whether to remain part of the EU. This column explores the UK’s options if a majority votes in favour of Brexit. One possibility is for the UK, like Norway, to join the European Economic Area and thereby retain access to the European Single Market. An alternative would be to negotiate bilateral treaties with the EU, as Switzerland has done. All options, however, involve a trade-off between political sovereignty and economic benefits.

China's five year plan fantasy
Salvatore Babones (Aljazeera) Mar 5, 2016
China's "moderately prosperous society" must be grounded in fiscal reality.

E-commerce in emerging markets: India online
Economist Mar 5, 2016
The battle for India’s e-commerce market is about much more than retailing.

Stock markets, wisdom of crowds, and corporate strategy
Thierry Foucault and Laurent Frésard (VoxEU) Mar 5, 2016
Economists continue to debate whether stock markets influence the real economy. This column takes a look at initial public offerings (IPOs) and finds that firms can increase the precision of the signals they get from the stock market by imitating each other. This effect has important implications for the structure of industries, innovation strategies, the diversity of product offerings for consumers, and the scope for diversification for investors. Economists continue to debate whether stock markets influence the real economy. This column takes a look at initial public offerings (IPOs) and finds that firms can increase the precision of the signals they get from the stock market by imitating each other. This effect has important implications for the structure of industries, innovation strategies, the diversity of product offerings for consumers, and the scope for diversification for investors.

New global trade under old national rules
FT Mar 6, 2016
Regulation has not kept pace with the growth of cross-border services.

A world stumped by stubbornly low inflation
Lawrence Summers (FT) Mar 6, 2016
There is no evidence that policymakers are acting strongly to restore their credibility.

Leaving the E.U. Would Hurt Britain's Economy
NYT Mar 6, 2016
Trade with member nations and the rest of the world would become more difficult, as new agreements and regulations would be needed.

Playing Around With Prices Is a Bad Idea
Michael Schuman (Bloomberg View) Mar 6, 2016
The Bank of Japan is undermining the price mechanism -- and its own efforts.

US exchanges: the ‘speed bump’ battle
Nicole Bullock and Philip Stafford (FT) Mar 7, 2016
Trading venue IEX is seeking to become an exchange, prompting a debate over equity market fairness.

ECB’s greatest risk is the danger of doing nothing
FT Mar 7, 2016
The eurozone needs be given further monetary stimulus this week.

Barclays’ African sale shows decline of universal banking model
Philip Augar (FT) Mar 7, 2016
Tougher and earlier action at the low-return investment operation would have been a better option.

Rising Global Debt and the Deflation Threat
George Melloan (WSJ) Mar 7, 2016
Years of deficit spending and near-zero interest rates have led to massive borrowing but little growth.

Resilience of Economies to Exogenous Shocks
Alain de Serres (OECD Insight) Mar 7, 2016
Countries are subject to economic shocks originating from long-term trends such as demography and short-term events such as financial crises, but healthy economies should be resilient to both

Britain Beware: The Power of Trade
Holger Schmieding (Globalist) Mar 7, 2016
How would the UK fare outside the European Union?

The New Danger From Derivatives
Bloomberg View Mar 7, 2016
Don't let a safety mechanism become a threat in itself.

Asian Growth in Turbulent Times
Changyong Rhee (Project Syndicate) Mar 7, 2016
Asia today accounts for about 40% of the world’s GDP – up from 25% in 1990 – and contributes about two-thirds of global economic growth. But today’s difficult economic conditions are calling into question the continuation of that progress.

The New Interventionists
Mark Leonard (Project Syndicate) Mar 7, 2016
The consequences of Russia’s intervention in Syria stretch far beyond the Middle East. They also herald the beginning of a new era in geopolitics, in which large-scale military interventions are not carried out by Western coalitions, but by countries acting in their own narrow self-interest, often in contravention of international law.

Oil prices and the value of ‘oil currencies
Sascha Bützer, Maurizio Michael Habib and Livio Stracca (VoxEU) Mar 7, 2015
The large dip in oil prices reverberated across asset markets, contributing to the depreciation of the Russian rouble. This column argues that the recent fall of the rouble may be more an exception than the norm. Oil shocks have only a limited impact on global exchange rate configurations, since oil exporters tend to lean against exchange rate pressures by running down or accumulating foreign exchange reserves.

CAF — rock-solid development bank in an ocean of volatility
Stephen Gibbs (FT) Mar 8, 2016
Latin American policy bank delivers returns that outshine its shareholders.

Good news — fintech could disrupt finance
Martin Wolf (FT) Mar 8, 2016
Banking is currently inefficient, costly and riddled with conflicts.

Is Canada ready to take back its position on the global stage?
Margaret Biggs and John McArthur (Brookings) Mar 8, 2016
Newly-elected Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's visit to Washington this week is the first of its kind in 19 years and a major opportunity for Canada to prove its readiness to re-engage with the world.

Europe’s New Crisis: Ungovernability
Denis MacShane (Globalist) Mar 8, 2016
Returning to the spirit of the 1930s is not a program for government.

Maybe Bitcoin Will Grow Up to Be a Currency
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Mar 8, 2016
It's an investment or money, but can't be both.

Picking Up Where Abenomics Left Off
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Mar 8, 2016
The best recommendations come from academics, not bureaucrats.

Banking Faces an Existential Crisis
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Mar 8, 2016
Rules intended to make the finance industry safer are instead endangering it.

The ECB's Dilemma
Mohamed Aly El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Mar 8, 2016
More unconventional measures are likely, but their effect will be short-term.

Are Central Banks Really Out of Ammunition?
Adair Turner (Project Syndicate) Mar 8, 2016
The global economy faces a chronic problem of deficient nominal demand. Japan is suffering near-zero growth and minimal inflation. But the debate about which policies could boost demand remains inadequate, evasive, and confused.

The End of Globalization?
Daniel Gros (Project Syndicate) Mar 8, 2016
China has just announced that last year, for the first time since it began opening up its economy to the world at the end of the 1970s, exports declined on an annual basis. And that is not all; in value terms, global trade declined in 2015.

Just How Bad is the Global Economy? It’s All a Matter of Perspective
David Francis (FP) Mar 8, 2016
Is the global economy at risk of coming off the rails, or do investors and policy makers need to take a deep breath and calm down about its health? It depends who you ask.

Reality Check for the Global Economy
Julien Acalin, Olivier Blanchard, Monica de Bolle, Jose De Gregorio, Caroline Freund, Joseph E. Gagnon, Nicholas R. Lardy, Adam S. Posen, David J. Stockton, and Nicolas Veron (PIIE) Mar 8, 2016
After five years of disappointing recovery throughout the major economies, almost everyone is ready to believe the worst. The widespread large declines in global asset prices indicate a significant divergence between what financial markets fear and what most mainstream macroeconomic forecasts are showing for the world economy.

International business cycle synchronisation: The role of financial linkages
Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Jean Imbs and Jumana Saleheen (VoxEU) Mar 8, 2016
It is well known that financial integration has increased dramatically over the past few decades. This column asks whether this rise has led to greater or less business cycle synchronisation. The answer depends crucially on the source of the shock. In response to common shocks, financial integration tends to lower business cycle synchronisation. In response to a country-specific shock, however, business cycles are more synchronised between countries that are more financially integrated.

The death and rebirth of the stock exchange
John Gapper (FT) Mar 9, 2016
Trading venues have grown in value despite regulatory, technological and competitive disruption.

Chinese outflows ‘not driven by capital flight’
Steven Johnson (FT) Mar 9, 2016
Fall in renminbi due to unwinding of the carry trade and companies paying down dollar debt.

Who Gets the Blame for the Slowing Economy?
Steven Rattner (NYT) Mar 9, 2016
There are lots of reasons for lackluster global growth. But the real fault lies with political leadership.

Can Trump Start a Trade War?
Holman W. Jenkins, Jr. (WSJ) Mar 9, 2016
From his first moment in office, he can take the world economy on a wild ride.

The Rubble of Argentina's Debt Settlement
Anna Gelpern (PIIE) Mar 9, 2016
After a 14-year standoff, Argentina has agreed to settle with the biggest holdout creditors who bought bonds on which it defaulted in 2001, letting the new government in Buenos Aires resume the life of an ordinary sovereign in the global capital markets. The $4.65 billion settlement follows more than a dozen agreements with smaller holdouts since the start of 2016 and estimated at over $1.5 billion.

Too Soon for a Rally: Brazil's Long Road Ahead
Monica de Bolle (PIIE) Mar 9, 2016
Markets tend to swoon in times of political crisis. It is therefore odd that they are rallying strongly in Brazil by assuming that any change in government would be better than the status quo.

The Fintech Ultimatum: Adapt or Die
Joseph Hooley (II) Mar 9, 2016
The success of financial services companies depends on their ability to take advantage of innovations coming out of the fintech revolution.

Trouble Ahead: What's Next for the Chinese Economy?
K@W Mar 9, 2016
China's slowing economy is battling falling exports, looming job layoffs and a potential real estate bubble. What steps can the government take?

Draghi Doesn't Have What Europe Needs
Bloomberg View Mar 9, 2016
It's time for Europe's governments to do their part.

Africa’s Middle Passage to Development
Simplice A. Asongu (Project Syndicate) Mar 9, 2016
When it comes to relations with China – and development strategies more generally – there are two opposing camps within Africa. But the approach that will bring the most progress is one that smooths the contradictions and offers a balanced, accommodative, and pragmatic vision behind which Africans can unite.

The Politics of Anger
Dani Rodrik (Project Syndicate) Mar 9, 2016
Perhaps the only surprise about the populist backlash that has overwhelmed many advanced democracies' politics is that it has taken so long. Even two decades ago, it could be predicted that mainstream politicians' refusal to offer remedies to the side effects of a hyper-globalized age would create political space for demagogues.

Is the Perfect Storm Over for Markets?
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Project Syndicate) Mar 9, 2016
So far this year, financial markets around the world have been navigating a perfect storm – that is, a violent disruption fueled by an unusual amalgamation of smaller disturbances. The spike in volatility of financial markets is the direct result of three distinct factors.

Britain’s EU membership: Alternative views
Angus Armstrong (VoxEU) Mar 9, 2016
The upcoming vote on the UK’s membership of the EU has sparked a vibrant debate on topics ranging from sovereignty and sterling to migrants and the military. This column discusses evidence on the economics of Britain’s EU membership drawn from a recent conference where both sides of the debate were represented. The upcoming vote on the UK’s membership of the EU has sparked a vibrant debate on topics ranging from sovereignty and sterling to migrants and the military. This column discusses evidence on the economics of Britain’s EU membership drawn from a recent conference where both sides of the debate were represented.

Brazil’s corruption probe leaves no one untouched
FT Mar 10, 2016
It is hard to imagine such sweeping judicial action in Russia or China.

The bitcoin magic is losing its Midas touch
Henry Farrell (FT) Mar 10, 2016
The currency’s advocates are right: money is a confidence trick, a form of frozen desire.

China’s example has policy lessons for the west
Joe Zhang (FT) Mar 10, 2016
Are state-owned enterprises so much worse than QE or negative interest rates.

Mario Draghi and the ECB take on the naysayers
Martin Sandbu (FT) Mar 10, 2016
The central bank gives a boost to eurozone growth and inflation.

US Presidential Contenders Spar on Trade As White House Continues TPP Push
Bridges, Volume 20, Number 9 Mar 10, 2016
The trade positions of US presidential candidates are increasingly coming into the spotlight, as the primary process moves closer to indicating who may represent the Democratic and Republican parties for the upcoming November general election.

An Economics Lab Where Theories Go to Die
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Mar 10, 2016
All the bright ideas look kind of dim when you try to explain Japan.

Terrible Things That Are Getting Less Terrible
Justin Fox (Bloomberg View) Mar 10, 2016
The immigration, trade and inequality crises look like they're abating.

A State-Powered Green Revolution
Mariana Mazzucato (Project Syndicate) Mar 10, 2016
Better mechanisms for storing and releasing energy – when the sun isn’t shining, the wind isn’t blowing, or when electric cars are on the move – are critical to a green future. And, contrary to popular belief, it is the public sector that is taking the lead in developing them.

The Fear Factor in Global Markets
Kenneth Rogoff (Project Syndicate) Mar 10, 2016
The phenomenal market volatility of the past year owes much to genuine risks and uncertainties about factors such as Chinese growth, European banks, and the oil glut. Yet, from a macroeconomic perspective, the fundamentals are just not that bad.

Defamation and Development in the Arab World
Daoud Kuttab (Project Syndicate) Mar 10, 2016
With the violent radicalism and civil wars of the Middle East and North Africa capturing the world’s attention, the region’s grossly distorted legal systems are often ignored. Yet problematic laws like those criminalizing defamation, which facilitate political and economic repression, undermine development – and destroy lives.

Can Europe Stand Up to Its Own Strongmen?
Eszter Zalan (FP) Mar 10, 2016
Eastern Europe is backsliding on democracy — and Brussels isn’t doing anything to stop it.

Trade agreements and profits: New evidence
Holger Breinlich (VoxEU) Mar 10, 2016
Given the increasing number of regional trade agreements, economists have been estimating their effects on a wide range of outcomes. This column looks at stock market reactions to the implementation of the Canada-US free trade agreement to evaluate its effects on firms’ profits. Firm profits seem to be hurt by lower tariffs, but increase with cheaper access to intermediates and – for large firms – better access to the US market. The author estimates that CUSFTA increased the yearly profits of Canadian manufacturing by 1.2%. Given the increasing number of regional trade agreements, economists have been estimating their effects on a wide range of outcomes. This column looks at stock market reactions to the implementation of the Canada-US free trade agreement to evaluate its effects on firms’ profits. Firm profits seem to be hurt by lower tariffs, but increase with cheaper access to intermediates and – for large firms – better access to the US market. The author estimates that CUSFTA increased the yearly profits of Canadian manufacturing by 1.2%.

Can a Desperate Brazil Finally Tap Its Oil Wealth?
Keith Johnson (FP) Mar 11, 2016
A nation battered by Zika and economic woes hopes that getting the oil flowing will bring in some much-needed cash.

The Transatlantic Trade Conundrum
Kimberly Ann Elliott (CGD) Mar 11, 2016
EU Trade Minister Cecilia Malstrom has been in Washington, meeting with US Trade Representative Michael Froman and trying to give the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations a nudge. Developing countries are watching closely and assessing the potential implications for exports to what are the two largest markets for many of them.

Footloose Capital Drives Up Income Inequality
Prakash Loungani (Globalist) Mar 11, 2016
Eliminating capital controls leads to more income inequality at home.

Confronting the Fiscal Bogeyman
Barry Eichengreen (Project Syndicate) Mar 11, 2016
With interest rates in negative territory in many parts of the world, it is clear that using monetary policy to stimulate the economy is approaching its limits. If the global economy is to be put back on its feet, it is time for policymakers in Europe and elsewhere to ramp up public spending.

The Brexit Conspiracy
Noëlle Lenoir (Project Syndicate) Mar 11, 2016
For decades, prominent British politicians have propounded their disdain for Europe, causing euroskepticism in the United Kingdom to become firmly entrenched. When the country holds a referendum on its EU membership on June 23, many voters may be unwilling to vote to remain.

Trade in a Time of Protectionism
Ranil Wickremesinghe (Project Syndicate) Mar 11, 2016
South Asian countries like Sri Lanka cannot expect the rest of the world to welcome our economic ambitions, as it once did Japan's, China's, or South Korea's. With free trade the scapegoat of choice among the world’s populists and demagogues, the region must come to rely much more on its own integration.

A green evolution
Economist Mar 12, 2016
The farms of Africa are prospering at last thanks to persistence, technology and decent government

Carbon emissions: Aiming low
Economist Mar 12, 2016
Research shows China’s dirtiest days could be over sooner than officials say.

Asia’s Advancing Role in the Global Economy
Christine Lagarde (IMF) Mar 12, 2016
Over the next four years---even with slightly declining momentum---Asia stands to deliver nearly two-thirds of global growth. Given this vital economic role, making the most of Asia’s dynamism is of great interest to the entire world.

Can China Avoid the Middle Income Trap?
Damien Ma (FP) Mar 12, 2016
With its new five-year plan, Beijing aims to rebalance its troubled economy and forge a path to lasting national wealth.

A brief history of human time
Olivier Gergaud, Morgane Laouénan and Étienne Wasmer (VoxEU) Mar 12, 2016
Historical accounts often assert that notable individuals matter for the growth of particular cities. This column uses a new database of 1.2 million people from 2,000 cities since 800CE to show that some types of ‘notable’ individuals have made a difference. Specifically, the presence of many entrepreneurs and artists is associated with faster long-term growth, but the association does not hold for notable military, political or religious figures. Historical accounts often assert that notable individuals matter for the growth of particular cities. This column uses a new database of 1.2 million people from 2,000 cities since 800CE to show that some types of ‘notable’ individuals have made a difference. Specifically, the presence of many entrepreneurs and artists is associated with faster long-term growth, but the association does not hold for notable military, political or religious figures.

The European Central Bank has lost the plot on inflation
Wolfgang Münchau (FT) Mar 13, 2016
There is nothing fundamentally wrong with any of the decisions except that the bank missed a trick.

The Era of Free Trade Might Be Over. That's a Good Thing.
Jared Bernstein (NYT) Mar 13, 2016
Globalization has meant lower prices for Americans, but it's meant lower wages, too.

Capturing the benefits of Chinese investment
Peter Drysdale and Neil Thomas (EAF) Mar 13, 2016
Chinese investment has increased from virtually zero to becoming Australia’s fifth-largest source of foreign direct investment over the past decade.

Democracy in retreat
WP Mar 13, 2016
Illiberal regimes are on the march, and the U.S. should pay attention.

American Inequality Didn’t Just Happen. It Was Created.
Joseph E. Stiglitz (Evonomics) Mar 13, 2016
How to keep power at the top of society.

A capital market union for Europe
Diego Valiante (VoxEU) Mar 13, 2016
Financial market integration could help the Eurozone’s functioning by facilitating the absorption of asymmetric shocks via private risk sharing. This column shows that Europe’s capital markets are poorly functioning and are underdeveloped. Governments and financial institutions bond issuance are an exception, but their activism is mostly a result of the financial difficulties of recent years. To fix this, a Capital Markets Union should be implemented. Financial market integration could help the Eurozone’s functioning by facilitating the absorption of asymmetric shocks via private risk sharing. This column shows that Europe’s capital markets are poorly functioning and are underdeveloped. Governments and financial institutions bond issuance are an exception, but their activism is mostly a result of the financial difficulties of recent years. To fix this, a Capital Markets Union should be implemented.

Deindustrialisation and development
Uri Dadush Mar 13, 2015
Manufacturing is often seen as the key to sustainable export and productivity growth in developing countries. This column argues that, while manufacturing played a key role in some countries’ development, high growth can be sustained without relying primarily on manufacturing. A process of learning, productivity improvement, and investment that touches all sectors characterises the most successful economies. Policies that artificially favour manufacturing should instead give way to maximising learning from the frontier in all sectors of the economy.

A universal basic income is an old idea with modern appeal
John Thornhill (FT) Mar 14, 2016
Developed countries have to reform their welfare states to adapt to technological upheavals.

Brazil scandals: Closing in
Joe Leahy (FT) Mar 14, 2016
Markets are betting on a new government restoring growth but President Dilma Rousseff is up for a long fight.

G-20 Should Address Income Gap, Fragility of Financial Systems
Guntram B. Wolff (Caixin) Mar 14, 2016
Combating underlying causes of weak demand requires paying attention to issues like the distribution of income and structure of financial systems

Paul Krugman’s Self-Protectionist Moment
Thomas I. Palley (Globalist) Mar 14, 2016
The economist inadvertently puts a spotlight on everything wrong with his profession and with himself.

Trump Is Wrong About Manufacturing and China
Jeffrey Rothfeder (New Yorker) Mar 14, 2016
Despite what the Presidential campaign rhetoric would have us believe, factory jobs are coming back to North America.

3rd Rock from the Sun: A Macro Perspective
Anne Szustek (II) Mar 14, 2016
Productivity is the economic engine. Millennials and Gen Xers, this means you.

Ignored for Years, a Radical Economic Theory Is Gaining Converts
Michelle Jamrisko (Bloomberg Business) Mar 14, 2016
From discipline's margins, new theory challenges deficit taboo.

Europe Should Stand With Merkel
Bloomberg View Mar 14, 2016
A setback for German centrism is a setback for the European Union.

'Regime Change' Alone Won't Fix Brazil
Mac Margolis (Bloomberg View) Mar 14, 2016
Its problems go far beyond President Dilma Rousseff.

Why Is Change So Hard for China?
Christopher Balding (Bloomberg View) Mar 14, 2016
The cultural barriers to reform are daunting.

The Real Reason to Worry About China
Narayana Kocherlakota (Bloomberg View) Mar 14, 2016
The world's biggest currency union may be headed for a breakup.

ECB Paints Lipstick on Euro's Banking Pigs
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Mar 14, 2016
The euro zone loan market has a demand problem, not a supply issue.

Free Trade Doesn't Have to Devastate Workers
Justin Fox (Bloomberg View) Mar 14, 2016
This trade-bashing is understandable, in light of economic conditions.

Is Russia’s National Character Authoritarian?
Robert J. Shiller (Project Syndicate) Mar 14, 2016
Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and the public’s acquiescence in direct government control of news media have many people wondering if Russians are predisposed to authoritarianism. But survey evidence counsel caution about drawing conclusions about national character from isolated events.

Ensuring Africa’s Continued Rise
Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala (Project Syndicate) Mar 14, 2016
Africa is well placed to build diversified economies based on low-carbon, sustainable infrastructure. But policymakers cannot simply assume that the continent's rise will continue; they must take the right steps to ensure that it does.

Balance of payments statistics and hidden assets
Valeria Pellegrini, Alessandra Sanelli and Enrico Tosti (VoxEU) Mar 14, 2016
Balance of payments statistics suggest that assets held abroad are greatly underestimated – particularly for mutual fund shares and bank deposits. This column looks into the role played by tax havens and estimates that unreported financial assets amount to between $6 and $7 trillion. On this figure, the related tax evasion is between $19 and $38 billion a year on capital income, and between $2 and $2.6 trillion on personal income. Recent policy initiatives such as automatic information exchanges constitute real progress, but some critical aspects might jeopardise their effectiveness. Balance of payments statistics suggest that assets held abroad are greatly underestimated – particularly for mutual fund shares and bank deposits. This column looks into the role played by tax havens and estimates that unreported financial assets amount to between $6 and $7 trillion. On this figure, the related tax evasion is between $19 and $38 billion a year on capital income, and between $2 and $2.6 trillion on personal income. Recent policy initiatives such as automatic information exchanges constitute real progress, but some critical aspects might jeopardise their effectiveness.

A Ticking Time Bomb: TLAC and Other Attempts to Privatize Bank Bail-outs
Avinash D. Persaud (PIIE) Mar 14, 2016
Regulators and bankers have struck a deal where big banks have to carry a significant amount of additional "total loss absorbing capital" (TLAC), but the additional amount can be in forms of capital that are cheaper to raise than equity. The market has responded enthusiastically, with banks issuing new bail-in securities at rock bottom yields. The intention is that these new instruments will save taxpayers from having to rescue banks, but they will not work and will likely draw new players messily into the center of the next crisis.

Corruption Threatens Ukraine's Hard-Earned Freedom
Chris Miller (YaleGlobal) Mar 14, 2016
Russia and the West compete for influence in Ukraine, but Kiev must reduce corruption to control its destiny.

The Racist Dawn of Capitalism
Peter James Hudson (Boston Review) Mar 14, 2016
A spate of new books makes clear that chattel slavery was not an aberration within capitalism, but its essence. Yet even these works often ignore black scholarship

Monetary policy is not enough to beat deflation
FT Mar 15, 2016
The case for governments to support stimulus is becoming clearer.

Lula and Brazil: investors’ twisted logic
Jonathan Wheatley (FT) Mar 15, 2016
Investors were wrong to believe in change for the better; Brazil is stuck for at least two years.

Japan Inc: Heavy meddling
Leo Lewis and Kana Inagaki (FT) Mar 15, 2016
The architects of Abenomics revive the interventionist spirit to try and compete more with China.

The UK economy has changed, so must the way we measure it
John Kay (FT) Mar 15, 2016
Official statisticians have compiled data in the same way for 75 years.

India is a light in a gloomy world economy
Martin Wolf (FT) Mar 15, 2016
The country has shifted from socialism with restricted entry to capitalism without exit.

China's Looming Currency Crisis
Anne Stevenson-Yang and Kevin Dougherty (WSJ) Mar 15, 2016
Mass capital outflows continue despite stymied Beijing’s efforts to boost the economy. Expect the yuan to tumble.

Making the Case for Trade
Morton Kondracke and Matthew J. Slaughter (WSJ) Mar 15, 2016
Reagan’s ‘protectionism is destructionism’ message was true—and it would be derided in the 2016 race.

230 Indicators Approved for SDG Agenda
Casey Dunning (CGD) Mar 15, 2016
The final piece of the puzzle is in place for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Last Friday, March 11, the United Nations Statistical Commission’s Interagency and Expert Group on SDG Indicators (IAEG-SDGs) agreed on 230 individual indicators to monitor the 17 goals and 169 targets of the SDGs. We now have a complete picture of the SDG agenda for the next 15 years, right?

Indonesia Navigates Safely Through Uncertain Times
IMF Survey Mar 15, 2016
Indonesia, one of the best performing emerging market economies, can take its economic success to the next level by more investment, particularly in infrastructure, and finding new sources of economic growth, says the IMF in its annual assessment.

Cyprus Turns Economy Around, Successfully Exits IMF Program
IMF Survey Mar 15, 2016
The Cypriot authorities canceled their financial arrangement with the IMF, which was set to expire in mid-May, after having turned around the economy of the island country.

The Chilling Math of Inequality
Mark Buchanan (Bloomberg View) Mar 15, 2016
A new analysis suggests inequality could freeze the economy.

Lies, Damn Lies, and European Growth Statistics
Yanis Varoufakis (Project Syndicate) Mar 15, 2016
Europe’s leaders have invested too much political capital in their failed policies toward the EU's periphery members to believe that they can reverse course. So now they are focusing on real national income data, which, during a period of deflation, is merely an effort to repackage an economic depression as a great success story.

The Financial System of the Future
Simon Johnson (Democracy No. 40) Mar 15, 2016
The global financial system is in the midst of profound transformation. This shift represents both a great opportunity for the United States in terms of job creation and potential growth and a new set of national security dilemmas.

Two hundred budget surprises: A new IMF dataset
Elva Bova, Marta Ruiz Arranz, Frederik Toscani and Elif Ture (VoxEU) Mar 15, 2016
A contingent fiscal liability is a potential obligation for the government that depends on a possible future event. Understanding the origin, size, and triggers of these liabilities is increasingly important. This column presents new findings using a novel dataset of 200 episodes involving the materialisation of contingent liabilities. The fiscal costs of the liabilities are large, at 6% of GDP on average. Importantly, countries with stronger institutions and lower growth volatility tend to suffer less from contingent liability realisations. A contingent fiscal liability is a potential obligation for the government that depends on a possible future event. Understanding the origin, size, and triggers of these liabilities is increasingly important. This column presents new findings using a novel dataset of 200 episodes involving the materialisation of contingent liabilities. The fiscal costs of the liabilities are large, at 6% of GDP on average. Importantly, countries with stronger institutions and lower growth volatility tend to suffer less from contingent liability realisations.

EM debt: high and getting higher
Jonathan Wheatley (FT) Mar 16, 2016
EM corporates continue to lever up even as they pay down their dollar debts.

How Italy fell out of love with the EU
James Politi (FT) Mar 16, 2016
Austerity and the migration crisis have strained relations, but what does the country want from the union?

Britain, Don't Leave the E.U., Only You Can Save It.
Jochen Bittner (NYT) Mar 16, 2016
The British may decide to leave the European Union this year. They should stay - because they're the only ones who can save it.

What Donald Trump Gets Pretty Much Right, and Completely Wrong, About China
Neil Irwin (NYT) Mar 16, 2016
A combination of legitimate complaints and misstatements of how things work between the world’s two largest economies.

Egypt's currency devaluation fuels debate
Mohamed Hashem (Aljazeera) Mar 16, 2016
Announcement comes as Cairo grapples with a moribund economy on a downward spiral since the 2011 January uprising.

Three Cheers for Free Trade
Ross Kaminsky (American Spectator) Mar 16, 2016
It’s enough to take the word of an eminent Nobel laureate.

The Brexit Debate: In or out?
Keith Wade (Pieria) Mar 16, 2016
Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Lord Lawson locked horns with columnist Hugo Dixon over the arguments for and against one of the biggest issues facing Europe this year: "Brexit".

China Needs a New Commitment to Economic Reform
Bloomberg View Mar 16, 2016
The economy is changing, but the pace needs to quicken.

London Could Lose Its Euro Trading If U.K. Leaves EU
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Mar 16, 2016
Neither side should underestimate the odds that the finance industry will shift to Paris or elsewhere.

There's Trade, and Then There's Good Trade
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Mar 16, 2016
U.S. deals with other rich countries are fine. China is the problem.

China’s High-Income Future
Erik Berglöf (Project Syndicate) Mar 16, 2016
At the recent meeting of G-20 finance ministers in Shanghai, many expressed concern about China's chances of reversing its economic downturn. If recent research debunking the so-called middle-income trap is correct, and China maintains the momentum of its structural transformation, such fears may turn out not to be warranted.

Maintaining the Emerging-Economy Growth Engine
Lee Jong-Wha (Project Syndicate) Mar 16, 2016
The emerging economies – which just a few years ago were being hailed for their resilience in the face of a global economic meltdown – are now facing myriad economic challenges, reflected in significantly slower GDP growth. Is the world's emerging-economy growth engine breaking down?

Whatever Happened to the Invisible Hand of Capitalism?
Vitaly Katsenelson (II) Mar 16, 2016
Recent monetary policy of the Fed and other central banks has a lot in common with the command-and-control policies of the former Soviet Union.

Turns Out Economic Growth Doesn’t Mean Destroying the Planet
Keith Johnson (FP) Mar 16, 2016
World economies are expanding while keeping greenhouse-gas emissions in check. That’s good news for the environment — and bad news for climate change naysayers.

The perverse effect of preferential rules of origins
Paola Conconi, Manuel García Santana, Laura Puccio and Roberto Venturini (VoxEU) Mar 16, 2016
One of the more pernicious barriers to trade in today's world are so-called 'rules of origin' that should help customs officers determine a product's origin, but often serve to raise the cost of importing. In practice, such rules prevent final producers from choosing the most efficient input suppliers around the world. This column investigates the impact of rules of origin in the world's largest free trade agreement, NAFTA, on imports of intermediate goods from non-member countries. The findings show that preferential rules of origin in FTAs can violate GATT rules by substantially increasing the level of protection faced by non-members. One of the more pernicious barriers to trade in today's world are so-called 'rules of origin' that should help customs officers determine a product's origin, but often serve to raise the cost of importing. In practice, such rules prevent final producers from choosing the most efficient input suppliers around the world. This column investigates the impact of rules of origin in the world's largest free trade agreement, NAFTA, on imports of intermediate goods from non-member countries. The findings show that preferential rules of origin in FTAs can violate GATT rules by substantially increasing the level of protection faced by non-members.

US presidential candidates’ focus on trade deals is misleading
FT Mar 17, 2016
Politicians need to address economic insecurity, not protectionism.

Emerging market debt: A trawl for yield
Andrew England and Elaine Moore (FT) Mar 17, 2016
Mozambique’s $850m ‘tuna bond’ acts as a cautionary tale of the sector’s boom.

The age of uncertainty is upon us
Martin Wolf (FT) Mar 17, 2016
How are we to manage public finances if the economy does not return to pre-crisis trends?

Machines use their own intelligence not ours
Daniel Susskind (FT) Mar 20, 2016
Google’s AlphaGo relied on processing power and data storage.

IMF Launches Debate on Future of International Monetary System
IMF Survey Mar 17, 2016
The IMF is embarking on a study to understand the challenges facing the international monetary system, identify the system’s shortcomings, and lay the basis for reform.

UN Statistics Body Endorses SDG Indicators
Bridges Volume 20, Number 10 Mar 17, 2016
The United Nations Statistical Commission endorsed last week a set of 230 global indicators as the basis for reviewing progress towards the UN's 17 Sustainable Development Goals, called the "last missing piece" of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

Choices by US Voters Will Influence the World
Bruce Stokes (YaleGlobal) Mar 17, 2016
The US presidential campaign is dominated by global issues including trade, immigration and terrorism – and voters have mixed feelings

European banks: The truth is in the numbers – progress in 2015
Jan Schildbach (DB Research) Mar 17, 2016
Despite headwinds from slow economic growth, low interest rates and tighter regulation, European banks’ recovery continues. In 2015, banks’ core business with the private sector returned to growth, revenues rose and provisions for loan losses declined again. The sector has become more profitable and resilient. Challenges remain aplenty, but European banks are definitely heading in the right direction.

China’s New Age of Economic Anxiety
Jiayang Fan (New Yorker) Mar 17, 2016
Beijing’s control of the economy fuelled both a stock-market and a real-estate bubble; there are signs that the latter is bloating once again.

Africa’s $700 Billion Problem Waiting to Happen
Alex de Waal (FP) Mar 17, 2016
The Horn of Africa region is central to the world’s maritime trade. It’s also beginning to fall apart.

Moral suasion and bond buying in the Eurozone Crisis
Steven Ongena, Alexander Popov and Neeltje van Horen (VoxEU) Mar 17, 2016
The European sovereign debt crisis has triggered speculation that part of the increase in banks’ holdings of domestic sovereign debt was driven by ‘moral suasion’ by governments. This column shows that domestic banks in fiscally stressed countries were considerably more likely than foreign banks to increase their holdings of sovereign bonds in those months when the government had to issue a large amount of new debt. This suggests that governments indeed ‘morally sway’ their banks to purchase domestically issued sovereign bonds when sovereign bond markets are stressed. The European sovereign debt crisis has triggered speculation that part of the increase in banks’ holdings of domestic sovereign debt was driven by ‘moral suasion’ by governments. This column shows that domestic banks in fiscally stressed countries were considerably more likely than foreign banks to increase their holdings of sovereign bonds in those months when the government had to issue a large amount of new debt. This suggests that governments indeed ‘morally sway’ their banks to purchase domestically issued sovereign bonds when sovereign bond markets are stressed.

The Moral Case for Globalization
Steven R. Weisman (PIIE/US News) Mar 18, 2016
What the candidates are overlooking the most is the moral case for globalization.

Japan’s Immigration Imperative
John West (Globalist) Mar 18, 2016
Can opening up to immigration provide Japan a potential source of economic revitalization?

Meet the Woman Leading Europe’s War Against Google, Gazprom, and Apple
Suzy Hansen (FP) Mar 18, 2016
Margrethe Vestager, the EU’s antitrust czar, is going after some of the world’s biggest companies — Google, Gazprom, and Apple — and trying to redefine the 21st-century economy.

The ECB Goes Rogue
Sylvester Eijffinger (Project Syndicate) Mar 18, 2016
The ECB Governing Council has just decided to increase bond purchases further, from €60 billion to €80 billion per month, and to reduce, again, the deposit rate, to -0.4%. The monetary authorities have clearly overstepped their mandate – and the policy won't even have the desired effect.

China and the Future of Commodity Prices
Abdul Abiad and Shang-Jin Wei (Project Syndicate) Mar 18, 2016
China’s ongoing growth slowdown has undeniably had far-reaching effects on the global economy. But its role in the sharp fall in commodity prices since 2014 – an outcome that has been devastating for commodity-exporting countries, including once-dynamic emerging economies – is more limited than observers typically believe.

Understanding macropru: Four rationalities
Jon Danielsson and Andreas Tsanakas (VoxEU) Mar 18, 2016
Macroprudential policy has become increasingly popular in the aftermath of the Global Crisis, but it remains controversial. This column argues that vigorous disagreement is both inevitable and healthy, reflecting differing fundamental views of how the financial system really works. By embracing the divergence of views instead of seeing it as problematic, macroprudential policymaking will be made easier and more effective. Macroprudential policy has become increasingly popular in the aftermath of the Global Crisis, but it remains controversial. This column argues that vigorous disagreement is both inevitable and healthy, reflecting differing fundamental views of how the financial system really works. By embracing the divergence of views instead of seeing it as problematic, macroprudential policymaking will be made easier and more effective.

Calculate Your Economic Risk
Mark R. Rank and Thomas A. Hirschl (NYT) Mar 19, 2016
What are the chances you will experience poverty in the near future?

Carrier Workers See Costs, Not Benefits, of Global Trade
Nelson D. Schwartz (NYT) Mar 19, 2016
As factory jobs move abroad, the divide between the political and economic elite and the rest of Americans widens, placing the two groups at odds.

The blockchain in finance: Hype springs eternal
Economist Mar 19, 2016
Distributed ledgers are the future, but their advent will be slow

A Quantum of Happiness
Ohood Al Roumi (Project Syndicate) Mar 19, 2016
There have been a number of initiatives in recent years to move beyond GDP in measuring countries’ success in governance and development. In a country that has spent the past five decades building an economy from a standing start, the government knows only too well that such figures do not tell the whole story.

Offshoring, CEO pay, and the organisation of firms
Dalia Marin, Jan Schymik and Alexander Tarasov (VoxEU) Mar 19, 2016
In the last decades the world economy has seen firms organise production into global value chains, decentralise their systems of command to incentivise workers, and start compensating CEOs with skyrocketing earnings. This column uses new data on German and Austrian firms to show that managerial offshoring to eastern Europe has increased decentralised management by 6.8% in relatively open sectors, but it has lowered the relative wages of executives in Germany and Austria by 4.9%. In the last decades the world economy has seen firms organise production into global value chains, decentralise their systems of command to incentivise workers, and start compensating CEOs with skyrocketing earnings. This column uses new data on German and Austrian firms to show that managerial offshoring to eastern Europe has increased decentralised management by 6.8% in relatively open sectors, but it has lowered the relative wages of executives in Germany and Austria by 4.9%.

Trade myths and realities
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Mar 20, 2016
Trump, Clinton and Sanders spread misleading rhetoric.

Accelerating Reforms to Establish a Risk Prevention System - A View from the IMF
Christine Lagarde (IMF) Mar 20, 2016
Establishing a stronger and safer international monetary system to prevent risks is of paramount importance for advanced and emerging economies alike. The moment could not be more fitting, given the conjuncture of risks and transitions in the global economy.

Negative interest rates are a high-risk experiment
Huw van Steenis (FT) Mar 21, 2016
Rising sales of safes show how consumer trust can be jeopardised.

Oil and gas: Debt fears flare up
Ed Crooks (FT) Mar 21, 2016
The $3tn debt mountain following the sector’s borrowing binge threatens further destabilisation

Trumpism, the Economic Wrecking Ball
Alan S. Blinder (WSJ) Mar 21, 2016
Exploding deficits, high tariffs and the deportation of millions of workers would spark a global depression.

New Approaches to Economic Challenges in a Century of Cities
Alter, R. (OECD Insights) Mar 21, 2016
We live in the century of cities. In OECD countries, two out of three people live in cities with 50 000 or more inhabitants.

What the U.S. Offers the World
Justin Fox (Bloomberg View) Mar 21, 2016
Exporting services may be key to keeping the trade deficit from ballooning.

New Rules for the Monetary Game
Raghuram Rajan (Project Syndicate) Mar 21, 2016
Both advanced and emerging economies need to grow in order to ease domestic political tensions. If they respond by enacting policies that divert growth from others, they will simply foster instability elsewhere, which is why a new framework for monetary policy is needed.

Brexit’s Questions for Europe
Javier Solana (Project Syndicate) Mar 21, 2016
In three months, British citizens will vote on whether or not to remain in the EU. But they are not the only ones who must consider their political future; the upcoming referendum also poses important questions for the rest of Europe.

How Much Does the EMU Benefit Trade?
Reuven Glick and Andrew K. Rose (FRBSF Econ Letter) Mar 21, 2016
The economic benefits of sharing a currency like the euro continue to be debated. In theory, countries that use the same currency face lower trade costs and exchange rate risk and are able to compare prices across borders more easily. These advantages should help increase trade among the economies involved. New estimates suggest that this has been the case in Europe, though perhaps to a lesser degree than previously thought.

Income inequality and income mobility
Andrea Garnero, Alexander Hijzen and Sébastien Martin (VoxEU) Mar 21, 2016
Some economists argue that income inequality suggests intra-generational mobility in society. This column provides comprehensive evidence across a large number of advanced economies on the importance of intra-generational mobility and its relationship with earnings inequality. The findings do not support the belief that higher earnings inequality necessarily goes hand-in-hand with greater mobility over the working life. Higher inequalities are not systematically compensated by higher mobility opportunities. Some economists argue that income inequality suggests intra-generational mobility in society. This column provides comprehensive evidence across a large number of advanced economies on the importance of intra-generational mobility and its relationship with earnings inequality. The findings do not support the belief that higher earnings inequality necessarily goes hand-in-hand with greater mobility over the working life. Higher inequalities are not systematically compensated by higher mobility opportunities.

China plays ball with its development lending
FT Mar 22, 2016
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank has made a wise move.

Chinese currency moves sow confusion
Steve Johnson (FT) Mar 22, 2016
Renminbi slides against basket but remains wedded to dollar — running counter to supposed new regime.

Nigeria’s government: living the high life
Adrienne Klasa (FT) Mar 22, 2016
Targeting the elite’s private air fleets might be a good place to start making spending cuts.

China’s struggle for a new normal
Martin Wolf (FT) Mar 22, 2016
Beijing seems strangely indecisive on the economy and yet increasingly authoritarian in politics.

The cyber heist that should scare our global financial system
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Mar 22, 2016
The $81 million stolen from Bangladesh Bank is a reminder of the system’s vulnerabilities.

Is Democracy in Retreat?
Gazeta Wyborcza (Feature/WA) Mar 22, 2016
After the fall of communism in Europe, democracy appeared unstoppable. Today, NED president Carl Gershman says that we are learning that democracy is neither inevitable nor irreversible.

China’s Incompatible Goals
Carmen Reinhart (Project Syndicate) Mar 22, 2016
China’s commitment to prop up its currency appears to be incompatible with its recent turn toward more accommodative monetary policies. The country will undoubtedly find it easier if it allows the renminbi to float sometime soon, rather than waiting until a full-fledged confidence crisis forces its hand.

The end of the golden era for oil states continues to curb German export growth in 2016
Eric Heymann and Heiko Peters (DB Research) Mar 22, 2016
In 2015, exports of German goods to the oil states declined by 7.4%. This was the third fall in a row. Growing exports to the United Arab Emirates (primarily aircraft) and Saudi Arabia prevented an even worse result. As oil prices will initially remain low, German exports to the oil-producing countries are expected to fall again in 2016. Our export indicator points to a decline of approximately 5%. Among the major German industrial sectors, mechanical engineering is likely to be hardest hit by falling demand from the oil states, as was the case in 2015. Overall, the significance of the oil producers as a market for German industry will continue to decline in 2016.

Reckoning With Inequality
Jeffrey Frankel (Project Syndicate) Mar 22, 2016
When it comes to the rise in economic inequality since the 1970s in the US and some other advanced economies, all measures of income distribution show an increase. And, while many competing explanations have been proposed, we do not need to agree about causes to concur on sensible policies to address the problem.

The Fed's Credibility Dilemma
Narayana Kocherlakota (Bloomberg View) Mar 22, 2016
The central bank has too much riding on fallible forecasts.

Causes of the Eurozone Crisis: A nuanced view
Lars P Feld, Christoph M Schmidt, Isabel Schnabel and Volker Wieland (VoxEU) Mar 22, 2016
Hindsight is a wonderful thing. In the midst of a crisis, it is of course very hard to understand causality. This column uses the benefit of hindsight to present a nuanced view of the causes of the Eurozone Crisis as seen by members of the German Council of Economic Experts. To prevent the same crisis happening again, the Maastricht Treaty needs to be revitalised to enhance the future stability of the Eurozone and relieve the ECB of its role as crisis manager. Hindsight is a wonderful thing. In the midst of a crisis, it is of course very hard to understand causality. This column uses the benefit of hindsight to present a nuanced view of the causes of the Eurozone Crisis as seen by members of the German Council of Economic Experts. To prevent the same crisis happening again, the Maastricht Treaty needs to be revitalised to enhance the future stability of the Eurozone and relieve the ECB of its role as crisis manager.

Moving to the Innovation Frontier
Christian Keuschnigg (VoxEU) Mar 22, 2016
Innovation drives macroeconomic growth, determines the competitive position of firms, and leads to factor reallocation. This column introduces a new CEPR Press eBook which argues that firms must implement more risky innovations as the economy approaches the technological frontier. The five contributions, from leading economists in the field, suggest that priority should be given to research, selection of firms, and reducing frictions. Innovation drives macroeconomic growth, determines the competitive position of firms, and leads to factor reallocation. This column introduces a new CEPR Press eBook which argues that firms must implement more risky innovations as the economy approaches the technological frontier. The five contributions, from leading economists in the field, suggest that priority should be given to research, selection of firms, and reducing frictions.

Donald Trump wants America to withdraw from the world
Thomas Wright (FT) Mar 23, 2016
He would pose the greatest shock to peace and stability since the 1930s.

Upheavals in taste and shopping habits sweep China
James Kynge (FT) Mar 23, 2016
Upheavals in taste and shopping habits reshape China’s consumer landscape as spending growth ebbs.

Brazil's and South Africa's Watergate Moment
Frank Vogl (Globalist) Mar 23, 2016
What happens when judges fight corrupt political leaders?

A Welcome Cease-Fire in the Currency Wars
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Mar 23, 2016
The dollar needs a rest.

Counting the Ways That Trump Is Wrong on Trade
Paula Dwyer (Bloomberg View) Mar 23, 2016
His numbers on China are way off. Exhibit A is Apple's new iPhone.

Economics in a Time of Political Instability
Michael Spence and David Brady (Project Syndicate) Mar 23, 2016
Over the last 35 years, the Western democracies have seen a rapid rise in political instability, driven at least partly by economic transformation and hardship. The question now is how to improve economic performance at a time when political instability is impeding effective policymaking.

The Success of Greek Structural Reforms
Dimitris Papadimoulis (Project Syndicate) Mar 23, 2016
Since July 2015, when Greece and its European counterparts agreed to a new bailout deal, the Greek government has made immense efforts to implement structural reforms under tight deadlines. And while the reforms have at times been controversial, they have also been successful, meriting EU recognition and aid.

The hidden victims of the Global Crisis
Arna Vardardottir (VoxEU) Mar 23, 2016
One of the many impacts of the Global Crisis was on stress levels, and these can be a risk factor for adverse birth outcomes. This column shows that exposure to the Crisis resulted in a significant reduction in the birth weight of babies in Iceland, comparable in size to the effect of smoking during pregnancy. The full costs of poor health at birth as a result of the Crisis will not materialise until the children exposed in utero become adults. One of the many impacts of the Global Crisis was on stress levels, and these can be a risk factor for adverse birth outcomes. This column shows that exposure to the Crisis resulted in a significant reduction in the birth weight of babies in Iceland, comparable in size to the effect of smoking during pregnancy. The full costs of poor health at birth as a result of the Crisis will not materialise until the children exposed in utero become adults.

Crystal balls are no way to predict a post-Brexit world
Chris Giles (FT) Mar 24, 2016
The Leave campaign casts slurs on the integrity of economists who have little axe to grind.

Developed world stocks offer a ticket to EM consumer growth
Steven Johnson (FT) Mar 24, 2016
Shares geared to emerging markets strongly outperform EM and American equity markets.

Argentina offers a bright spot in Latam’s oil sector
Lucinda Elliott (FT) Mar 24, 2016
State investment remain robust and huge shale reserves attract oil majors.

Market swings: not a bear or a bull, but a bunny
John Authers (FT) Mar 24, 2016
Some believe US share prices have still not emerged from the dotcom crash.

EU, US Trade Chiefs Press for TTIP Advances Despite Election, Brexit Dynamic
Bridges, Volume 20, Number 11 Mar 24, 2016
Clinching an ambitious bilateral trade and investment pact in the near term remains a key strategic and economic priority, said the US’ and EU’s top trade officials last week, while acknowledging the ongoing uncertainty that surrounds such efforts given the American presidential election debate on the merits of trade deals and the impending “Brexit” referendum in the UK.

Africa: The Race Between Debt and Growth
Khaya Gobodo and Antoon de Klerk (II) Mar 24, 2016
Emerging countries that adhere to a strategy of steady growth and wise debt spending are the most likely to see the greatest rewards.

A Flat World Gets Bumpy With Globalization in Retreat
David Dapice (YaleGlobal) Mar 24, 2016
World leaders blame open borders for economic woes, trying protectionist controls rather than reducing inequality

China’s Next Stimulus
Yu Yongding (Project Syndicate) Mar 24, 2016
Since last November, economists and the media alike have been hailing supply-side structural reform as the solution to all of China’s economic woes. But expansionary fiscal policy and accommodative monetary policy also have an important role to play in placing China on a more stable and sustainable growth path.

Can Mauricio Macri Save Argentina’s Economy?
Maria Candia (FP) Mar 24, 2016
Obama’s trip to Argentina will give the country new access to international markets, but Argentina's president will have to be tough to survive the bold reforms he seeks.

Causes and consequences of China’s shadow banking
Kaiji Chen, Jue Ren and Tao Zha (VoxEU) Mar 24, 2016
The rise of shadow banking in China after the Global Crisis helped stabilise output growth. This column looks at entrusted lending, a unique feature of Chinese shadow banking. Banks played a prominent role in the rapid rise of entrusted lending during the period of monetary tightening following the Crisis; the bulk of shadow lending was channelled by non-state banks into risky industries. Such financial distortions will eventually hamper the progress of transforming from investment-led growth to balanced growth, unless proper regulations are put in place. The rise of shadow banking in China after the Global Crisis helped stabilise output growth. This column looks at entrusted lending, a unique feature of Chinese shadow banking. Banks played a prominent role in the rapid rise of entrusted lending during the period of monetary tightening following the Crisis; the bulk of shadow lending was channelled by non-state banks into risky industries. Such financial distortions will eventually hamper the progress of transforming from investment-led growth to balanced growth, unless proper regulations are put in place.

How Trade Made America Great
Frederick W. Smith (WSJ) Mar 25, 2016
The FedEx founder and CEO reflects on how deregulation and opening markets have wrought astonishing changes and prosperity over 50 years.

Digital Globalization and the Developing World
Laura Tyson and Susan Lund (Project Syndicate) Mar 25, 2016
Globalization is entering a new era, defined not only by cross-border flows of goods and capital, but also, and increasingly, by flows of data and information. Will this shift disproportionately favor the advanced economies, whose industries are at the frontier in employing digital technologies in their products and operations?

Why China Can Grow According to Plan
Justin Yifu Lin (Project Syndicate) Mar 25, 2016
One of the key questions about China’s 13th five-year plan, which covers the period from 2016 to 2020, is whether the country can achieve its target of doubling its GDP and average rural and urban household income from their 2010 levels. Despite major challenges, there is good reason to believe that it can.

How the digital revolution is reshaping the global workforce
Carl Benedikt Frey and Ebrahim Rahbari (VoxEU) Mar 25, 2016
Back in the 1960s, many thought that the computer and automation would herald less work and more leisure, but the debate has changed. These days, economists debate the extent to which jobs will be lost due to technological innovation. This column explores whether technology is becoming more labour-saving and less job-creating. Concerns over automation causing mass unemployment seem exaggerated, at least for now. Back in the 1960s, many thought that the computer and automation would herald less work and more leisure, but the debate has changed. These days, economists debate the extent to which jobs will be lost due to technological innovation. This column explores whether technology is becoming more labour-saving and less job-creating. Concerns over automation causing mass unemployment seem exaggerated, at least for now.

China’s cities: Sell up, move on
Economist Mar 26, 2016
Rural residents are largely shut out of China’s booming property market. That feeds inequality and hobbles China

Dollarizing the Ayatollahs
Mark Dubowitz and Jonathan Schanzer (WSJ) Mar 27, 2016
The White House appears poised to give Iran access to the U.S. financial system. Watch out.

Can Asia break free of great-power dynamics?
Hugh White (EAF) Mar 27, 2016
We delude ourselves if we imagine that Asia could be transformed economically by the biggest shift in the distribution of wealth in history without also being transformed politically and strategically

Public debt in low-income countries: Risks and opportunities
Alex Pienkowski, Joyce Saito and Suchanan Tambunlertchai (VoxEU) Mar 28, 2016
Initiatives to reduce public debt in low-income countries have made substantial progress over the past decade, but challenges remain and continue to evolve. This column presents the findings from a new IMF-World Bank report on these developments. Low-income countries have benefited from debt relief and favourable economic conditions, resulting in generally lower debt burdens and vulnerabilities. There has also been a shift in debt financing, with greater reliance on emerging market economies, international capital markets, and domestic sources. However, more recently, risks have begun to re-emerge necessitating fiscal prudence and improved debt management. Initiatives to reduce public debt in low-income countries have made substantial progress over the past decade, but challenges remain and continue to evolve. This column presents the findings from a new IMF-World Bank report on these developments. Low-income countries have benefited from debt relief and favourable economic conditions, resulting in generally lower debt burdens and vulnerabilities. There has also been a shift in debt financing, with greater reliance on emerging market economies, international capital markets, and domestic sources. However, more recently, risks have begun to re-emerge necessitating fiscal prudence and improved debt management.

Why only some credit booms end in crises
Gary Gorton and Guillermo Ordoñez (VoxEU) Mar 27, 2016
Credit booms are not rare and usually precede financial crises. However, some end in a crisis while others do not. This column argues that credit booms start with an increase in productivity, which subsequently falls much faster during ‘bad booms’. When this decline is severe enough, it changes the informational regime in credit markets, leading to a drying up of credit. A crisis may be the result of an exhausted credit boom and not necessarily of a negative productivity shock. Credit booms are not rare and usually precede financial crises. However, some end in a crisis while others do not. This column argues that credit booms start with an increase in productivity, which subsequently falls much faster during ‘bad booms’. When this decline is severe enough, it changes the informational regime in credit markets, leading to a drying up of credit. A crisis may be the result of an exhausted credit boom and not necessarily of a negative productivity shock.

The challenge posed by oil’s ‘Minsky moment’
FT Mar 28, 2016
The big debt overhang from the boom years is a test for policymakers.

The Sustainable Development Goals: A Duty and an Opportunity
Gabriela Ramos (OECD Insights) Mar 28, 2016
The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are universal, multi-dimensional, and ambitious. To achieve them we need an integrated framework that promotes a growth path that respects the environment, and whose benefits are shared by all, not only by the privileged few.

The Case for Free Trade Is as Strong as Ever
Bloomberg View Mar 28, 2016
U.S. politicians' criticism of trade deals is raw populism.

The Trouble With Predictions
Narayana Kocherlakota (Bloomberg View) Mar 28, 2016
Experts must show restraint and humility if they want to be trusted.

The New Old Economics of Trade
Clive Crook (Bloomberg View) Mar 28, 2016
Recent research upholds the case for free trade.

Europe’s Emerging Bubbles
Hans-Werner Sinn (Project Syndicate) Mar 28, 2016
The European Central Bank’s recent policy moves have shocked many observers. But they are just the latest in a string of efforts by the ECB to address the fallout of the collapse of a massive bubble – efforts that have served only to fuel more bubbles.

China’s Economic Identity Crisis
Stephen S. Roach (Project Syndicate) Mar 28, 2016
This year's China Development Forum highlighted the authorities' new emphasis on supply-side reforms. The problem is that this approach could overwhelm the shift to a consumer-led growth model that the country desperately needs.

No Country for Young Men (and Women)
Paola Subacchi (Project Syndicate) Mar 28, 2016
Over the last 20 years, at least a half-million Italians aged 18 to 39 – and potentially far more – have headed abroad to find work, a trend that a young prime minister promising economic reform has done nothing to ease. Why are young Italians so eager to leave?

The Lilli-Putins of the EU
Nina L. Khrushcheva (Project Syndicate) Mar 28, 2016
Hungary and Poland, once beacons of hope for liberal democracy in post-communist Europe, now have leaders who are determined to emulate Russian President Vladimir Putin, hollowing out independent democratic institutions and suppressing citizens’ fundamental freedoms. The question is whether the EU will follow through with sanctions.

The US is beginning to dominate global investment banking: Implications for Europe
Charles A.E. Goodhart and Dirk Schoenmaker (VoxEU) Mar 28, 2016
The European banking system is downsizing. As a consequence, the big US investment banks are on the rise in Europe. This column argues that US investment banks are about to surpass their European counterparts in the European investment banking market. The authors also discuss why leaving global investment banking to the big five American banks might be problematic and offer policy response recommendations.

A history of errors behind Europe’s many crises
Wolfgang Münchau (FT) Mar 29, 2016
I would not trust with my security somebody who cannot even contain a medium-sized financial event.

Why Trade Critics Are Getting Traction
William A. Galston (WSJ) Mar 29, 2016
The benefits of open markets are more uneven than economic theories had assumed.

Nafta May Have Saved Many Autoworkers’ Jobs
Eduardo Porter (NYT) Mar 29, 2016
There is a good case to be made that without Nafta, there might not be much left of Detroit at all. A wall of tariffs against Mexico would probably do more harm than good.

Finance, Growth and Inequality
Boris Cournede and Oliver Denk (OECD Insights) Mar 29, 2016
Finance is the lifeblood of modern economies, but too much of the wrong type of finance can hamper economic prosperity and social cohesion

China’s Next Agenda
Martin Feldstein (Project Syndicate) Mar 29, 2016
While China remains a complicated puzzle, the authorities are clearly pursuing pro-market reforms designed to produce real annual growth of 6.5% or more during the next five years. If that target is missed, it will not be for a lack of effort on the part of the Chinese government.

The Brexit Muddle
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Project Syndicate) Mar 29, 2016
In the UK, the question of whether to remain in the EU is dominating the media, boardroom discussions, and dinner conversations. While slogans and soundbites tend to capture most of the attention, deeper issues in play leave the outcome of the June 23 referendum subject to a high degree of uncertainty.

Implications of shale oil for Arab producers
Lutz Kilian (VoxEU) Mar 29, 2016
Lower oil prices are putting increasing pressure on Arab oil producers, and many pundits have been quick to blame US shale oil producers for the decline in prices and in Arab oil revenues. This column measures how much the the shale oil boom contributed to the fall in the global price of crude oil. The Brent price of crude oil since 2011 would have been as much as $10 per barrel higher in the absence of US shale oil. But as large as this effect is, it pales in comparison with the decline in the price of oil that took place after June 2014, to which shale oil actually contributed little. The column goes on to discuss the policy options facing Arab oil producers. Lower oil prices are putting increasing pressure on Arab oil producers, and many pundits have been quick to blame US shale oil producers for the decline in prices and in Arab oil revenues. This column measures how much the the shale oil boom contributed to the fall in the global price of crude oil. The Brent price of crude oil since 2011 would have been as much as $10 per barrel higher in the absence of US shale oil. But as large as this effect is, it pales in comparison with the decline in the price of oil that took place after June 2014, to which shale oil actually contributed little. The column goes on to discuss the policy options facing Arab oil producers.

Bad Apple Theory of Financial Crises
Avinash D. Persaud (PIIE/Livemint) Mar 30, 2016
There is a moment soon after major financial crises erupt when it dawns on public officials what went wrong. They draw up ambitious plans for meaningful change but these plans are soon rolled away as the wider society adopts what I call "The Bad Apple Theory of Financial Crises."

What Will Drive the Next Emerging-Markets Upcycle?
Sammy Suzuki (II) Mar 30, 2016
At least four factors that spurred past upcycles in developing economies will play a part in the next rise, though not to the same extent.

Plan B for the Global Economy
Andrew Sheng and Xiao Geng (Project Syndicate) Mar 30, 2016
There is growing awareness among policymakers of the risks to the global economy posed by deflation and intensifying financial instability. In mitigating these risks, avoiding a hard landing in China is a necessary but insufficient condition for global recovery.

Learning Without Theory
Ricardo Hausmann (Project Syndicate) Mar 30, 2016
How can we make countries more competitive, growth more sustainable and inclusive, and genders more equal? In most of the situations we face, we lack a theory of the relationship between actions and outcomes, or if we have one, we are not sure that it is correct.

Preparing for Europe’s Next Recession
Jean Pisani-Ferry (Project Syndicate) Mar 31, 2016
In a recent interview, Peter Praet, the ECB's chief economist, explicitly noted that “all central banks” can print money and send checks to each and every citizen. But there are better ways to boost eurozone economic growth than resorting to so-called helicopter drops of money.

When Things Fall Apart
Anatole Kaletsky (Project Syndicate) Mar 31, 2016
Democratic capitalism is an evolving system that responds to crises by radically transforming both economic relations and political institutions. The time for a new phase has come, regardless of whether "responsible" politicians are prepared to admit it.

Why Britain Should Remain European
Simon Johnson (Project Syndicate) Mar 31, 2016
On June 23, the United Kingdom will hold a referendum on whether to leave the European Union. On the economic side of the "Brexit" debate are three main questions: Do European rules impose growth-stifling regulation on the United Kingdom? Would leaving the European Union increase opportunities for British exports? And what would be the likely impact of withdrawal on financial stability?

Take a Country on the Brink. Now Add 10,000 Asylum Hearings a Week.
Alexander Clapp (FP) Mar 31, 2016
Cargo containers used as courthouses. Camps flooded with sewage. A government on the verge of collapse. The EU refugee deal is a disaster for Greece.

Rethinking the measurement of economic activity
Charles Bean (VoxEU) Mar 31, 2016
The increasingly digital 21st century economy – with many zero-priced goods and services – is a challenging place for those striving to measure economic activity. This column reviews some of the main themes of the Bean Report on UK economic statistics. It suggests the exploitation of new data sources and the creation of a network of academics, private sector actors, and expert users. They would undertake research and development into the measurement of the economy and propose experimental statistics to capture the new phenomena.