News & Commentary:

Articles/Commentary

Don’t get carried away by Beijing’s stimulus
Paul Hodges (FT) Apr 1, 2019
Falling producer price index suggests China could soon be exporting deflation.

Brexit tests the British constitution
David Allen Green (FT) Apr 1, 2019
As parliament holds more indicative votes, questions of fundamental principle are hard to avoid.

Dubai fears the end of its ‘build it and they will come’ model
Simeon Kerr (FT) Apr 1, 2019
But can an economy fuelled by the vagaries of the property market reform itself?

The Miracle Years Are Over. Get Used to It.
Ruchir Sharma (NYT) Apr 1, 2019
Across the world, economists have had to downgrade growth forecasts. It’s not as bad as it sounds.

A Lesson in the Virtue of a Stable Currency
John Greenwood and Steve H. Hanke (WSJ) Apr 1, 2019
Speculators keep shorting the Hong Kong dollar, but they don’t understand how a currency board works.

Can the Emerging Economic Powers Govern the Globe?
Uri Dadush (Globalist) Apr 1, 2019
Can a G7 dominated by developing nations provide the impulse to global governance as did the old G7? The answer is no.

Economic woes dampen Japan's new era party
William Pesek (AT) Apr 1, 2019
Latest business survey finds confidence falling, with risks all around and worse likely to come.

Sterling Is Trapped in the Brexit Tractor Beam
Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg View) Apr 1, 2019
After a dreadful week for the divorce negotiations, the pound is as untradable as ever.

Europe Should Brace for One Last Brexit Delay
Lionel Laurent (Bloomberg View) Apr 1, 2019
The uncertainty would be huge, but the cost of a no-deal departure still looks too great.

Let’s Not Stress About the Next U.S. Recession
William C Dudley (Bloomberg View) Apr 1, 2019
It’s probably not imminent, and won’t be severe.

Erdogan's Election Stumble Troubles the Lira
Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg View) Apr 1, 2019
The ruling party’s defeat in major cities seems to have delayed the return to normal in financial markets.

Saudi Aramco’s Double-Edged Advantage
Liam Denning (Bloomberg View) Apr 1, 2019
Its location is its greatest asset and its greatest risk.

A Stronger China Won’t Lift Emerging Markets
Shuli Ren (Bloomberg View) Apr 1, 2019
Unlike years past, a recovery in the world’s second-biggest economy could divert money from the rest of the asset class.

Making China’s Tax Cuts Fiscally Sustainable
Shang-Jin Wei (Project Syndicate) Apr 1, 2019
Following its latest tax reform, China's government expects the total tax revenue it collects to drop substantially – by some CN¥2 trillion this year alone. While this is music to the ears of Chinese business owners, it raises questions about whether the country is moving onto a fiscally unsustainable path.

Europe and the New Imperialism
Jean Pisani-Ferry (Project Syndicate) Apr 1, 2019
For decades, Europe has served as a steward of the post-war liberal order, ensuring that economic rules are enforced and that national ambitions are subordinated to shared goals within multilateral bodies. But with the United States and China increasingly mixing economics with nationalist foreign-policy agendas, Europe will have to adapt.

How the Little Ice Age Changed History
John Lanchester (New Yorker) Apr 1, 2019
Starting in the fourteenth century, cooling temperatures disrupted our economic and social structures—and may have given rise to the modern world.

Banks' Real Estate Exposure and Resilience
Simon Kwan (FRBSF Econ Letter) Apr 1, 2019
Real estate has hit record high prices and elevated valuations in some markets. Do bank lenders have sufficient capital to withstand a large price drop? While their portfolios have a similar concentration in real estate as they did before the global financial crisis, both underwriting standards and capitalization have improved significantly since then. Estimates using the Federal Reserve’s stress test scenarios suggest that, although a few small banks would be undercapitalized, the banking sector overall appears resilient enough to weather a steep decline in real estate prices.

Recession Update: Should We Worry?
Azhar Iqbal (WF) Apr 1, 2019
We updated our models to estimate potential risks of a recession in the short-term as well as in the medium-term. Essentially, according to both models there's little recession risk for the short-term.

Be Careful of U.K. Data Boomerang
Erik Nelson (WF) Apr 1, 2019
Recent U.K. economic data have seemingly been boosted by firms stockpiling in preparation for a no-deal Brexit. Amid these inventory dynamics and given that Brexit uncertainty is dragging on longer than we envisaged, we are cutting our U.K. GDP forecasts, but making no changes to our Bank of England forecasts for now.

Erdogan’s stumbles bring him to a fork in the road
FT View Apr 2, 2019
Economic problems have loosened Turkish leader’s political grip.

US development finance must have a domestic imperative
Aubrey Hruby (FT) Apr 2, 2019
Mobilising domestic capital is key to the USDFC’s long-term sustainability.

Too much gloom has descended on the UK stock market
Henry Dixon (FT) Apr 2, 2019
Many investors are too light on UK equities, at a time of near-record relative value.

Not all measures of value stocks are created equal
Laurence Fletcher (FT) Apr 2, 2019
Strategy is due a comeback but not all ‘cheap’ stocks will outperform.

Unlocking the potential of SMEs in emerging markets
Tarek Sultan (FT) Apr 2, 2019
Small companies grapple with finance, expertise and cross-border trade challenges.

Break up the Big Four and make them focus on prudence
Karthik Ramanna (FT) Apr 2, 2019
Forcing auditors to be more sceptical of good news would help restore trust.

The UK is in the worst possible Brexit predicament
David Allen Green (FT) Apr 2, 2019
Only a momentous act of political will can avert a no-deal exit from the EU.

Theresa May was warned about Brexit. She didn’t listen.
Anne Applebaum (WP) Apr 2, 2019
The Brexit catastrophe is a textbook case of politicians ignoring intelligent advice.

Is It Too Late to Counter China’s Rise?
William Galston (WSJ) Apr 2, 2019
Beijing bought much of Europe in the time it took the U.S. to see its global trade blitz.

Fear of being left out drives China rally
David Goldman (AT) Apr 2, 2019
The world has been underweight China, as Beijing continues to prove naysayers wrong with targeted stimulus measures.

Is China’s Current Account Surplus Really Vanishing?
Barry Eichengreen (Caixin) Apr 2, 2019
China’s current account deficit may vanish one day, and these consequences may ultimately follow. But not yet.

Why Is the White House Scuttling its Biggest Development Win? Four Hidden Daggers Pointed at the Heart of the New USDFC
Todd Moss and Erin Collinson (CGD) Apr 2, 2019
The BUILD Act is a remarkable bipartisan effort to modernize the US toolkit to deploy private capital in service of both development and American foreign policy goals. The Act transforms the Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC) into a full-service US Development Finance Corporation (USDFC). At a signing ceremony in October, the White House heralded the Act’s passage as “an important step toward fulfilling the commitment President Trump made to reform the United States’ development finance institutions so that they better incentivize private sector investment in emerging economies.” So why is the White House gutting the most important features of the new agency?

Global trade growth loses momentum as trade tensions persist
WTO Apr 2, 2019
World trade will continue to face strong headwinds in 2019 and 2020 after growing more slowly than expected in 2018 due to rising trade tensions and increased economic uncertainty. WTO economists expect merchandise trade volume growth to fall to 2.6% in 2019 — down from 3.0% in 2018. Trade growth could then rebound to 3.0% in 2020; however, this is dependent on an easing of trade tensions.

Karen Dynan, Joseph E. Gagnon and Martin Chorzempa (PIIE) Apr 2, 2019
Global economic growth has lost momentum since last year, according to economists at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Europe's Banking Union is Under Attack
Ferdinando Giugliano (Bloomberg View) Apr 2, 2019
Populists and economic nationalists aren't the only ones to blame. Supervisors need to be more transparent, too.

Belt and Road Without China? It’s Possible
Nisha Gopalan (Bloomberg View) Mar 2, 2019
State-run banks are running out of dollars, which gives global lenders an opportunity to finance infrastructure projects.

The Fed Might Still Blunder Into a Recession
Timothy A Duy (Bloomberg View) Apr 2, 2019
To keep this economic expansion alive, policy makers need to be prepared to cut rates before the data makes a hard turn south.

To Break the Brexit Impasse, You Need a Leap of Imagination
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Apr 2, 2019
Britain’s parliament can’t make its mind up. A different voting system would help it.

The New-Old Globalization
Harold James (Project Syndicate) Apr 2, 2019
The European Union is increasingly divided over how best to manage economic relations with an increasingly outward-looking China. On the whole, European governments are probably right to be wary of Chinese investment; but that doesn't mean they should ignore China's vision of cross-border development.

Financial Prey for the Populists
Erik Berglöf (Project Syndicate) Apr 2, 2019
As the global wave of cross-border banking recedes, foreign banks are becoming easy targets for populist expropriation, especially in Central and Eastern Europe. More fundamentally, an important agent of local financial development and channel for stable capital flows to emerging and developing economies is closing down.

China’s Decade of Sweeping Economic Change
Zhang Jun (Project Syndicate) Apr 2, 2019
The changes China’s economy has undergone over the last decade are sweeping, unprecedented, and essential. The world would be far better served by an effort to understand them than by attempting to prove that the country’s achievements are less impressive than they are.

Unveiling the effects of macroprudential policies: The IMF’s new iMaPP database
Adrian Alter, Gaston Gelos, Heedon Kang, Machiko Narita and Erlend Nier (VoxEU) Apr 2, 2019
The IMF’s new iMaPP database integrates five major existing databases to build a comprehensive picture of macroprudential policies in use globally. This column shows how this rich dataset provides novel insights into the non-linear effects of changes in loan-to-value limits as one example of how better data can help policymakers to use macroprudential tools more precisely and effectively.

Inequality of opportunity, income inequality, and economic growth
Shekhar Aiyar and Christian Ebeke (VoxEU) Apr 2, 2019
There are contrasting theories on the relationship between income inequality and growth, and the empirical evidence is similarly mixed. This column points to the neglected role of equality of opportunity in mediating this relationship. Using the World Bank’s new Global Database on Intergenerational Mobility, it shows that in societies where opportunities are unequally distributed, income inequality exerts a greater drag on growth.

Will Another Cold War Follow Trade War?
Stephen Roach (YaleGlobal) Apr 2, 2019
The US and China must reshape their economic relationship – or risk Cold War 2.0 that threatens the global economy

U.S. Recession? How Do We Count the Ways?
Jay H. Bryson and Sarah House (WF) Apr 2, 2019
The recent inversion of the yield curve has some observers wondering if a recession in the United States is right around the corner. Absent some unforeseen shock, "talking" ourselves into a recession seems to be the most realistic way that the U.S. economy could experience one in the foreseeable future.

Timely warnings about private equity debt levels
FT View Apr 3, 2019
Buyout houses should heed the lessons of the financial crisis.

The Chinese economy is stabilising
Martin Wolf (FT) Apr 3, 2019
But significant doubts linger about President Xi Jinping’s commitment to private enterprise.

Breaking up Big Four is not the answer to audit woes
Hemione Hudson (FT) Apr 3, 2019
The contribution of professional services to the UK’s economic health must not be neglected.

Theresa May’s Brexit gambit hands initiative to Corbyn
Robert Shrimsley (FT) Apr 3, 2019
PM’s move is decisive and correct — even if it is far too late.

Negative bond yields revive fears of secular stagnation
John Plender (FT) Apr 3, 2019
Post-crisis lesson is that only fiscal stimulus can provide an effective remedy.

China triples investment in emerging Asia on trade war
James Kynge (FT) Apr 3, 2019
Dispute with US reshapes commercial landscape of region, ADB report finds.

Mark Mobius and the case against Argentina
Colby Smith (FT) Apr 3, 2019
The political risk is just too great for the veteran EM investor.

Demographic time-bomb: Finland sends a warning to Europe
Richard Milne (FT) Apr 3, 2019
Facing a rapidly ageing population, the country’s difficulty in passing reforms highlights the hurdles ahead.

America’s Biggest Economic Challenge May Be Demographic Decline
Neil Irwin (NYT) Apr 3, 2019
Slower growth in the working-age population is a problem in much of the country. Could targeted immigration policy help solve it?

The Silk Road That Leads to Rome
Rondi Adamson (WSJ) Apr 3, 2019
An agreement between China and Italy is like Marco Polo in reverse.

Brexit chaos leaves dismay in Asia-Pacific
Jonathan Gorvett (AT) Apr 3, 2019
Britain's failure to achieve a withdrawal agreement with the EU has had a very negative impact on the UK’s relationships in Asia and it could deal a serious blow to its trade with the region.

It's Not a Recession, It's a "Global Economic Slowdown"
George Pickering (Mises Wire) Apr 3, 2019
Pundits are hoping that instead of a crisis, we just get a "global economic slowdown." Given the damage done by central banks, a sustained slowdown would be a best-case scenario.

Nigeria: Mobilizing Resources to Invest in People
IMF Apr 3, 2019
Spending on health and education in Nigeria is among the lowest in the world. To fund these crucial sectors, Nigeria will have to maximize the amount of revenue it raises.

Economic Forces, Not Tariffs, Drive Changes in Trade Balances
Johannes Eugster, Florence Jaumotte, Margaux MacDonald, and Roberto Piazza (IMF) Apr 3, 2019
New IMF research finds that macroeconomic factors, not tariffs, explain most of the changes in trade balances between two countries.

Why Investment May Come Under Threat
Weicheng Lian, Natalija Novta, and Petia Topalova (IMF) Apr 3, 2019
Trade tensions and sluggish productivity growth could slow the decline in the relative price of machinery and equipment, which would hold back investment growth worldwide.

How to Keep Corporate Power in Check
Federico Díez and Romain Duval (IMF) Apr 3, 2019
The overarching policy goal should be to ensure a level playing field among all companies.

How visible are independent fiscal institutions in public debate?
Grégory Claeys (Bruegel) Apr 3, 2019
Independent fiscal institutions have no formal powers to act and have to rely on soft power to influence the budgetary process. This blog post investigates how they exercise this soft power by enhancing public scrutiny of fiscal policies.

Africa’s emerging economies to take the lead in consumer market growth
Landry Signé (Brookings) Apr 3, 2019
With household consumption in Africa expected to reach $2.5 trillion over the next decade, three major markets where investors and entrepreneurs should set their sights.

Unpacking the Relationship between Migration and Development to Help Policymakers Address Africa-Europe Migration
Michael Clemens and Kate Gough (CGD) Apr 3, 2019
European policymakers are currently meeting in Brussels. Top of the agenda: controlling irregular migration from Africa. To make this work, here’s what they need to understand about the relationship between migration and development.

Bitcoin Is Surging Again. Just Ignore It.
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Apr 3, 2019
The latest spike to $5,000 is just another blip as cryptocurrencies stumble toward maturity.

Are India’s Opposition the Real Reformers?
Mihir Sharma (Bloomberg View) Apr 3, 2019
Their election manifesto promotes the sort of pro-growth policies that will be needed to pay for extensive handouts.

In the End, the Brexit Choice Is Stay or Go
Clive Crook (Bloomberg View) Apr 3, 2019
There’s no point in seeking compromise when no good compromise is possible.

India's Crony Capitalism Claims Another Victim
Andy Mukherjee (Bloomberg View) Apr 3, 2019
The Reserve Bank was doing good work in tackling bad loans to big business, but judges have decided it went too far. That’s a serious blow.

A Forgotten Bank Takeover Roars Back to Life
Chris Hughes (Bloomberg View) Apr 3, 2019
No news can be good news in emerging markets M&A. Just ask Emirates NBD and Turkey's Denizbank.

Don’t Breathe Easy About China Yet
Michael Pettis (Bloomberg View) Apr 3, 2019
If the government really gets serious about deleveraging, growth rates are going to plummet a lot faster than most people expect.

A Battle for India’s Soul
Shashi Tharoor (Project Syndicate) Apr 3, 2019
Every Indian general election beats its predecessor’s record to become the largest in world history. This time, Indian voters must decide whether they want an inclusive country that embodies hope, or a divided one that promotes fear.

Globalization Needs an Upgraded Operating System
Richard Samans (Project Syndicate) Apr 3, 2019
New technologies, climate change, rising social tensions, and geopolitical fragmentation have pushed globalization into a new phase for which the international community is woefully ill-prepared. Meeting these challenges will require a collective effort no less ambitious than that at the end of World War II.

Zombie firms, weak banks, and restructuring
Dan Andrews and Filippos Petroulakis (VoxEU) Apr 3, 2019
Europe’s productivity problem is partly due to the rise of zombie firms that crowd out growth opportunities for others. This column explores the tendency for weak banks to evergreen loans to zombie firms to avoid realising losses on their balance sheet. Measures to strengthen bank balance sheets will be enhanced by insolvency regimes that encourage corporate restructuring.

The Real Driver of China’s Growth: Internal Economic Reform
Trevor Tombe and Xiaodong Zhu (VoxChina) Apr 3, 2019
Many people have attributed China’ s growth since 2001 to its accession to WTO and the resulting rapid export expansion. We provide quantitative evidence showing that internal economic reform, not export expansion, was the real driver of China’ s growth in the period after 2001. We also show that there is still large potential growth from further internal reform in China.

Brunei: Huawei’s Foothold in Southeast Asia
Austin Bodetti (Diplomat) Apr 3, 2019
Huawei’s already substantial presence in the sultanate is likely to extend to building Brunei’s 5G network.

How Brexit Britain can repair its battered reputation
Bronwen Maddox (FT) Apr 4, 2019
Once admired as an exemplar of national stability, the UK is now a figure of fun.

China stumbles in push to internationalise its currency
Henny Sender (FT) Apr 4, 2019
Momentum to broaden ownership of the renminbi has ebbed away in recent years.

Winning the War on Poverty
David Brooks (NYT) Apr 4, 2019
The Canadians are doing it; we’re not.

A long Brexit extension offers a chance to think again
Martin Wolf (FT) Apr 4, 2019
The withdrawal agreement does not command the needed support in parliament or country.

Goodbye EU, and goodbye the United Kingdom
Philip Stephens (FT) Apr 4, 2019
The invented identity of ‘Britishness’ is unravelling as English nationalism takes hold.

The legal logistics of revoking Article 50
David Allen Green (FT) Apr 4, 2019
Cancelling Brexit may not be quick or easy.

Yield curve: ignore it at your peril
Robin Wigglesworth and Joe Rennison (FT) Apr 4, 2019
Some believe that an inversion of the markets’ original ‘fear gauge’ is not a predictor but a cause of recessions.

'Unconditional cash transfer to India's poorest'
Saikat Datta (AT) Apr 4, 2019
Praveen Chakravarty of the Congress explains the party's ambitious election manifesto.

Trade talks will probably end with tariffs still in place
Economist Apr 4, 2019
Americans will pay for them.

Assessing the Risk of the Next Housing Bust
Claudio Raddatz and Nico Valckx (IMF) Apr 4, 2019
Central banks in the United States, China, and Australia have expressed concern about large increases in home prices.

Tackling Corruption in Government
Vitor Gaspar, Paolo Mauro and Paulo Medas (IMF) Apr 4, 2019
Political will can turn the tide against corruption.

Asia Leads in Industrial Robot Adoption. Why Do Europe and the U.S. Lag Behind?
Robert Atkinson (Brink) Apr 4, 2019
The global average for industrial robots per 10,000 manufacturing workers grew in 2017, and East Asian nations led the way. The West will have to overcome its irrational fear of automation if it hopes to boost competitiveness. Robert Atkinson, the president of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, examines the trends.

ICT revolution key to populist political surge
Marek Dabrowski (Bruegel) Apr 4, 2019
Developments in digital technology have prompted a ‘tabloidisation’ of traditional media, created opportunities for the misuse of information online, and closed the decision-making horizon for politicians.

Adapting global development in a two-tiered world
Kristin M. Lord (Brookings) Apr 4, 2019
My new report with George Ingram “Global Development Disrupted: Findings from a survey of 93 leaders” points to a world dividing in two and the challenge of addressing two very different types of development needs at once. This two-tier world presents a host of challenges to development organizations. Our survey found a wide range of innovations and adaptations—and expectations of even more change going forward.

Cutting U.S. Aid to Central America Is Self-Defeating
Bloomberg View Apr 4, 2019
Well-judged assistance can ease the migration crisis and advance U.S. strategic interests.

A Slowdown Is Inevitable. But a Recession?
Nir Kaissar and Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Apr 4, 2019
Disappointing growth and low investment returns will make it hard to distinguish expansion from bust.

How to Get a Trade Deal That Pleases Everyone
David Fickling (Bloomberg View) Apr 4, 2019
The latest agreement may just put a seal of approval on existing policies. But it can be sold as a victory both in the U.S. and China.

Keep an Eye on Trump's Other Trade War
Ferdinando Giugliano (Bloomberg View) Apr 4, 2019
U.S. and EU talks normally pose few problems. But not when the U.S. president is involved.

Even Jeremy Corbyn Can't Kill the No-Deal Beast
Therese Raphael (Bloomberg View) Apr 4, 2019
We’re still a long way from a Brexit agreement, and you have to ask whether the Tory party would survive a compromise deal from Theresa May.

The Transatlantic Regulation Rift
Howard Davies (Project Syndicate) Apr 4, 2019
European governments have seemingly concluded that hosting large, risky, and volatile financial firms and markets is not worth it, while the US administration still regards the financial sector as a comparative advantage for New York. Which side has made the wiser choice?

Does China Have Feet of Clay?
Joseph S. Nye (Project Syndicate) Apr 4, 2019
No one knows what China’s future holds, and there is a long history of faulty predictions of systemic collapse or stagnation. Neither outcome is likely, though the country is facing several challenges that are far more serious than many observers seem to think.

Fixing Africa’s Budget Problems
Biniam Bedasso and Neil Cole (Project Syndicate) Apr 4, 2019
Many African countries need to manage their public finances better to help them achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. This will require governments and their development partners to adopt more incremental approaches that take greater account of the local context.

Local fiscal multipliers and spillovers in the US
Alan Auerbach, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Daniel Murphy (VoxEU) Apr 4, 2019
The strength of fiscal multipliers and spillovers have been the subject of intense debate in recent years.Using data on US Department of Defense contracts and income and employment outcomes, this column finds evidence of strong positive spillovers across locations and industries, although the geographical spillovers appear to dissipate fairly quickly with distance. Both backward linkages and general equilibrium effects contribute to the positive spillovers.

Quantitative easing and the ‘hot potato’ effect
Ellen Ryan and Karl Whelan (VoxEU) Apr 4, 2019
The EU’s asset purchase programme saw its central banks’ reserve balances increase to unprecedent levels. This column analyses the response of banks in the euro area to this expansion in system-wide reserves, in particular whether they absorbed the excess liquidity or tried to push it off their balance sheets. The findings suggest that banks dealt with the increased reserves with the purchase of debt securities or paying down funding sources rather than lending to the real economy.

America Pivots
Adam Tooze (LRB) Apr 4, 2019
As of today, two years into the Trump presidency, it is a gross exaggeration to talk of an end to the American world order. The two pillars of its global power – military and financial – are still firmly in place. What has ended is any claim on the part of American democracy to provide a political model.

Pound remains eerily calm amid the Brexit chaos
FT View Apr 5, 2019
Investors and policymakers are on high alert for sudden movements in sterling.

Weird things keep happening in the markets
Gillian Tett (FT) Apr 5, 2019
The 2008 crisis and the reforms that followed sparked a profound behavioural shift.

Formerly unloved assets defy the critics
Robin Wigglesworth (FT) Apr 5, 2019
Investment underdogs are enjoying their time in the sun.

Counting the economic costs and causes of Brexit
Tim Harford (FT) Apr 5, 2019
Leavers and Remainers must face facts: the economy has long been disappointing.

Recession False Alarm
WSJ Apr 5, 2019
The job market shows underlying strength after February’s scare.

Why US-China trade deal is coming, in two charts
David P. Goldman (AT) Apr 5, 2019
The tariff battle has left the US bloodied more so than China, a fact that cannot be lost on Trump.

Are we reducing hunger in the world?
Homi Kharas and Lorenz Noe (Brookings) Apr 6, 2019
It is now clear that the world is not on track to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030.

The Best Brexit Is Still No Brexit
Bloomberg View Apr 5, 2019
The prime minister’s new strategy isn’t much better than her old one.

Jamie Dimon Hints That Banks Could Aid Value Investors
Nir Kaissar (Bloomberg View) Apr 5, 2019
Financial stocks have defied history on the economy’s way up and could on the way down, too.

The ECB Proves Central Bankers Are Bad Capitalists
Jim Bianco (Bloomberg View) Apr 5, 2019
The Corporate Securities Purchase Program has distorted the cost of money, allowing companies to make questionable decisions.

China’s Doghouse Is Smaller Than It Looks
Richard McGregor (Bloomberg View) Apr 5, 2019
But South Korea, Canada and Australia are learning that countries who fall in can’t easily get out.

Trump’s Manufacturing Jobs Boom Is Fading
Justin Fox (Bloomberg View) Apr 5, 2019
Two years of strong gains have given way to a minor slump. But there’s good news, too.

Time for a True Global Currency
José Antonio Ocampo (Project Syndicate) Apr 5, 2019
The International Monetary Fund’s global reserve asset, the Special Drawing Right, is one of the most underused instruments of multilateral cooperation. Turning it into a true global currency would yield several benefits for the global economy and the international monetary system.

The EU’s China Conundrum
Philippe Legrain (Project Syndicate) Apr 5, 2019
The European Union is increasingly caught between the United States and China. Until it finds a common strategic purpose, the bloc will struggle to advance its interests and is increasingly likely to fall victim to great-power plays.

The Austerity Chronicles
Kenneth Rogoff (Project Syndicate) Apr 5, 2019
After years of mounting polemics against austerity policies, Keynesian dogma has become something close to a secular religion in popular economic-policy debates. But a new study of 16 advanced economies shows that, as with all dogmas, righteousness is no substitute for empirical facts.

In Trump’s Economy, the Invisible Hand Belongs to the Government
Keith Johnson (FP) Apr 5, 2019
The state’s role in the U.S. economy has expanded dramatically under President Donald Trump, even as he pushes China to exert less control on its own economy.

Trump must be stopped from packing the US Fed
FT View Apr 6, 2019
Stephen Moore and Herman Cain lack any qualifications to shape monetary policy.

The EU should offer a long Brexit extension so the UK can rethink
Hugo Dixon (FT) Apr 6, 2019
Leavers are on the back foot as public sentiment turns in favour of the bloc.

The Russian shadow over banking’s Nordic noir
Richard Milne (FT) Apr 6, 2019
Swedish and Danish banks are embroiled in a massive money laundering scandal in the Baltic states.

What the Rest of the World Can Learn From the Australian Economic Miracle
Neil Irwin (NYT) Apr 6, 2019
As Americans worry about the potential end of a 10-year expansion, it’s worth studying the Aussies, whose winning streak is about to turn 28.

Reform of Chinese state-owned enterprises in the penumbra of the state
Ann Harrison, Marshall W. Meyer, Will Wang, Linda Zhao and Minyuan Zhao (VoxEU) Apr 6, 2019
The conventional wisdom that privatisation of state-owned enterprises reduces their dependence on the state and yields positive economic benefits has not always been borne out by empirical work. Using a comprehensive dataset from China, this column shows that privatised SOEs continue to benefit from government support in the form of low-interest loans and subsidies relative to private enterprises that have never been state-owned. Although there are clear improvements in performance post-privatisation, privatised SOEs continue to significantly under-perform compared to private firms.

The world economy lurches from uneven recovery to synchronized slowdown
Eswar Prasad (Brookings) Apr 7, 2019
While we're not yet headed for a worldwide recession, the latest update of the Brookings-Financial Times Tracking Indexes for the Global Economic Recovery indicates that major advanced and emerging market economies are all losing growth momentum.

Only Growth Can Defuse Nigeria’s Poverty Time Bomb
Bloomberg View Apr 7, 2019
In his first term, President Muhammadu Buhari left too much undone. In his second, he needs to be bold.

China’s $1 Trillion Sovereign Wealth Fund Has Gone Quiet
Nisha Gopalan (Bloomberg View) Apr 7, 2019
CIC has been noticeably absent from big-ticket deal-making since 2017. Its new chairman won’t help matters.

Austerity caused Brexit
Thiemo Fetzer (VoxEU) Apr 7, 2019
A rich literature has emerged aiming to make sense of the causes behind the Brexit vote, but it has mainly been descriptive. This column uses regional-level data on spending and voting behaviour, as well as individual-level survey data, to argue that the austerity policies in place in the UK since 2010 were an important contributing factor to the vote to Leave. Estimates suggest that the close-run referendum could have resulted in a victory for Remain had it not been for austerity.

Sovereign wealth funds must choose a new path
Christopher Mackin (FT) Apr 8, 2019
Investments in employee-owned companies will make a positive impact.

World economy may still defy the pessimists
Gavyn Davies (FT) Apr 8, 2019
The sharp slowdown late in 2018 has stabilised but not yet reversed.

Cross-party Brexit talks strengthen case for an extension
Wolfgang Münchau (FT) Apr 8, 2019
May and Corbyn only need to agree on the political principles underpinning the UK’s withdrawal.

China-EU Summit faces challenging times
Jonathan Gorvett (AT) Apr 8, 2019
European leaders want China to open its markets to boost trade; there is also concern that Beijing wants to split the EU by meeting officials from 16 central and east European countries in Croatia next week.

Oil price rally presents a tricky predicament for Opec
Halima Croft (FT) Apr 8, 2019
The producers’ cartel is unlikely to back away from its strategy of production cuts.

Unpredictable Britain? This is just the start
Gideon Rahman (FT) Apr 8, 2019
A UK led by Jeremy Corbyn or Boris Johnson would radically change foreign policy.

Can The US Balance China's Power?
Niall Ferguson (Boston Globe) Apr 8, 2019
It is hard to believe these days that for roughly two and a half centuries Britain maintained the balance of power in Europe. But how?

What do poor people think about direct cash transfers?
Stuti Khemani, James Habyarimana, and Irfan Nooruddin (Brookings) Apr 8, 2019
Cash for citizens or government spending to improve health, roads, and jobs programs? A new survey asks people in rural Bihar, one of India’s poorest states, what they think about spending public budgets on direct cash transfers.

Rethinking the Phillips Curve: Inflation May Rise Modestly Next Year
Christopher G. Collins and Joseph E. Gagnon (PIIE) Apr 8, 2019
The US economy is running hot, with a record high rate of job vacancies and the lowest unemployment rate in nearly fifty years. Yet most forecasters predict no increase at all in inflation. This combination appears to challenge the validity of the Phillips curve.

Do Multinationals Pay Their Fair Share of Corporate Income Taxes?
Gary Clyde Hufbauer (PIIE) Apr 8, 2019
The widely shared perception that multinational corporations (MNCs) are evading their fair share of taxes gained new political legitimacy recently with the endorsement of Christine Lagarde , managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

What Does it Take to Empower Ultra-Poor Women?
Jessica Francis, Tanvi Jaluka, Laurie Adams and Nancy Lee (CGD) Apr 8, 2019
There is no more urgent and fundamental problem in development than finding effective ways to help the ultra-poor improve their economic and social condition. But most interventions don’t reach the poorest of the poor.

A China-U.S. Trade Deal Could Be a Mere Cease-Fire
Mohamed Aly El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Apr 7, 2019
America would obtain better leverage by forming a common front with Europe.

The Inverted Yield Curve Deserves Better Scrutiny
Myron S Scholes, Ashwin Alankar (Bloomberg View) Apr 8, 2019
Rather than look at Treasuries, it’s better to examine corporate bonds for a true sense of the economic outlook.

Financial Models Are Not a Substitute for Good Judgment
John Authers (Bloomberg View) Apr 8, 2019
There’s a big problem with the notion that volatility is risk, as espoused by Peter Bernstein in his classic book “Capital Ideas.”

Remainers, Be Careful What Brexit You Wish For
Therese Raphael (Bloomberg View) Apr 8, 2019
Delaying or watering down Brexit will give its supporters just what they want: a grievance.

Germany’s Economic Outlook?
Ferdinando Giugliano (Bloomberg View) Apr 8, 2019
As analysts grapple with contradictory data, it’s clear the country’s politicians need to rebalance its export-led economy.

A Weak Euro Does What a Fractured ECB Can’t
Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg View) Apr 8, 2019
Frankfurt needs time, and the falling currency has given it to them.

Two Faint Cheers for Norway’s Renewable Energy Push
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Apr 8, 2019
The $1 trillion sovereign wealth fund’s plan is welcome, but still only a tiny step.

Redistribution Won’t End Wealth Inequality
Noah Smith (Noah Smith) Apr 8, 2019
There’s a lesson from the Old South: Within a generation, the once-rich former slave-owning families were back on top.

Why a Fight About Energy in 2040 Matters Right Now
Liam Denning (Bloomberg View) Apr 8, 2019
IEA forecasts for demand and climate change can shape attitudes and behaviors.

Cities for the People
Abhas K. Jha (Project Syndicate) Apr 8, 2019
Overcrowded, dirty, and disorderly cities undermine residents’ health as much as their happiness. With urbanization occurring at an unprecedented rate, there is an urgent need for careful planning, collaboration, communication, and consensus.

What’s Driving the Global Slowdown?
Eswar Prasad (Project Syndicate) Apr 8, 2019
Faced with an increasingly synchronized global slowdown, policymakers must use a judicious mix of monetary and fiscal measures and recommit to broader reforms of product, labor, and financial markets. How well they respond to these challenges will shape the course of the world economy for years to come.

How Western Economies Can Avoid the Japan Trap
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Project Syndicate) Apr 8, 2019
With the return of Europe's economic doldrums and signs of a coming growth slowdown in the United States, advanced economies could be at risk of falling into the same kind of long-term rut that has captured Japan. To avoid that outcome, policymakers must recognize and address the deeper structural forces at work.

Does the Fed Know More about the Economy?
Pascal Paul (FRBSF Econ Letter) Apr 8, 2019
In assessing the current or near-term state of the economy, forecasts from Federal Reserve staff seem to provide little additional information to improve commercial forecasts. However, Fed forecasts for economic growth a year or more in the future substantially enhance the accuracy of private-sector forecasts. The Fed’s policy announcements often reveal some of this forecast information. Accordingly, when the Fed surprises financial markets with indications of higher future interest rates, private forecasters tend to revise up their projections of future output growth.

The IMF at 75: Reforming the global reserve system
José Antonio Ocampo (VoxEU) Apr 8, 2019
The IMF will turn 75 next year. Updating and reforming of some aspects of its core functions should be considered to reflect the current global monetary context. This column analyses the IMF’s global reserve system, identifying three issues and suggesting two alternatives. Ultimately, greater use of the Fund’s Special Drawing Rights would mitigate several problems in the current system.

Credit ratings and structured finance
Jens Josephson and Joel Shapiro (VoxEU) Apr 8, 2019
The poor performance of credit ratings of structured finance products in the financial crisis has prompted investigation into the role of credit rating agencies. This column discusses the incidence of rating inflation when such an agency both designs and rates securities, highlighting the role of demand from investors that face rating constraints, such as banks, pension funds, or insurance companies. It finds that ratings are accurate when these constraints are very tight or very lax, but inflated otherwise.

The High-Stakes Battle Between Trump and the Fed
John Cassidy (New Yorker) Apr 8, 2019
For months, Trump has been publicly railing against the Federal Reserve; in private, he has been asking his aides if he can fire its head, Jerome Powell.

Survival of the International Monetary Fund and Global Economic Cooperation
Edwin M. Truman (PIIE) Apr 8, 2019
The International Monetary Fund (IMF)—a quota-based institution—faces a test of its survival as the linchpin of the global financial safety net. Its roughly $1.4 trillion in total financial resources is scheduled to begin to shrink in 2020. In 2015, IMF members committed to strengthening IMF financial resources in the 15th General Review of Quotas, which will end in December 2019. Over the past 25 years, the United States has led the way for a gradual redistribution of IMF quota shares toward faster-growing emerging-market and developing countries. Any significant redistribution of quota shares requires an increase in total quotas. Because of its share of votes in the IMF, the United States must agree to any change in quotas. The Trump administration, however, has signaled that it favors no such change. If the United States does not reverse its stance, IMF members will lose an opportunity to strengthen the institution at a time of global financial uncertainty. Truman says the United States could still change its position and recommends how other member countries should press it to do so.

The EU should not slide into protectionism towards China
FT View Apr 9, 2019
European governments should look first to address their own weaknesses.

Dimon and Dalio capture the spirit of capitalist reform
FT View Apr 9, 2019
The ultra-wealthy need to do more than simply warn about inequality.

The harsh realities of any further Article 50 extension
David Allen Green (FT) Apr 9, 2019
How Britain would be at a disadvantage if it proposed a Brexit postponement.

Widodo boasts about economy but Indonesia could do better
Henny Sender (FT) Apr 9, 2019
Asian shifts create opportunities to boost growth and foreign investment.

Xi Jinping’s China seeks to be rich and communist
Martin Wolf (FT) Apr 9, 2019
President’s ambitions rely on avoiding ‘middle-income trap’ and placating a more demanding populace.

Trump Says the U.S. Is ‘Full.’ Much of the Nation Has the Opposite Problem.
Neil Irwin and Emily Badger (NYT) Apr 9, 2019
An aging population and a declining birthrate among the native-born population mean a shrinking work force in many areas.

Here’s what will decide whether technology becomes a force for good, or evil
Zeid Ra'ad Al Hussein (WP) Apr 9, 2019
When societies falter and repression advances, tech is the partner of bad intentions.

Brexiteers are just like Trumpists — except on this
Megan McArdle (WP) Apr 9, 2019
Opposition to trade liberalization was a major strand of Trumpism; it is somewhere between absent and reversed in polarity in Britain.

Europe’s small, open countries brace for Brexit
Economist Apr 9, 2019
Ireland, the Netherlands and Belgium are most exposed.

Yen tells the global ‘synchronized slowdown’ story
William Pesek (AT) Apr 9, 2019
While the US dollar is the main safe-haven, the yen also has become a go-to currency in times of stress

China in the Balkans
Valbona Zeneli (Globalist) Apr 9, 2019
Chinese investment could become a challenging factor for the European future of the Western Balkans.

Emerging and Developed Markets: So the Last Shall Be First?
Jamil Baz, Ran Duan, Gene Frieda, Normane Gillmann and Lutz Schloegl (PIMCO) Apr 9, 2019
Using standard metrics, estimated returns in emerging markets compare favorably in equity, currencies and fixed income. Despite a rich catalog of crises that have boosted EM risk premia, crisis risk has risen sub­stantially in developed markets, suggesting that DM risk premia have room to adjust higher. Investors are generally underallocated to EM equity and fixed income.

The Global Economy: A Delicate Moment
Gita Gopinath (IMF) Apr 9, 2019
After the weak start, growth is projected to pick up in the second half of 2019.

Central Banks Are Heading Toward a Stagnant Global Zombie Economy
Daniel Lacalle (Mises Wire) Apr 9, 2019
Using Japan as a model, governments are steering us toward a worldwide zombie economy — but we're likely to end up with something that looks more like Argentina than Japan.

Why the ECB Won’t Loosen Its Policy Stance Further
Mohamed Aly El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Apr 9, 2019
Any new measures would backfire if governments and lawmakers continue to sit on the sidelines.

Frackers Can Reap the Oil Rally - If They Ignore It
Liam Denning (Bloomberg View) Apr 9, 2019
Investors are still punishing their stocks for past pumping booms that hurt prices.

Germany’s Economy Runs on Low Wages
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Apr 9, 2019
The European giant can rely on an army of poorly paid workers to weather a downturn.

How Populists Can Ruin a Global Recovery
Ferdinando Giugliano (Bloomberg View) Apr 9, 2019
The IMF sees a slight rebound in growth -- but that assumes this crop of world leaders don't press the self-destruct button.

The Last Thing Boeing Needs Is a Trade War
Mark Gongloff (Bloomberg View) Apr 9, 2019
Trump threatening Europe with tariffs won’t help anybody.

Trump's Trade Spat With China Squeezes Europe
Lionel Laurent (Bloomberg View) Apr 9, 2019
Brussels needs to strike an awkward balance to defend its own interests as protectionist bullets fly.

The Best Argument for the Gold Standard
Tyler Cowen (Bloomberg View) Apr 9, 2019
There’s no reason to believe central bankers will be as responsible in the next 40 years as they’ve been in the past 40.

Turkish Investors Learn How To Carry a Grudge
Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg View) Apr 9, 2019
They won’t soon forget how Erdogan’s government trapped them in the lira.

Trump’s Most Worrisome Legacy
Joseph E. Stiglitz (Project Syndicate) Apr 9, 2019
The US president's attacks on America's truth-seeking institutions jeopardizes its continued prosperity and very ability to function as a democracy. As corporate giants capture the institutions that are supposed to protect ordinary citizens, a dystopia once imagined only by science fiction writers is emerging before our eyes.

The West’s Dirty Financial Laundry
Anders Åslund (Project Syndicate) Apr 9, 2019
Since revelations of Danske Bank's role in the largest-ever money-laundering scandal, the United States and the European Union have been squabbling over who is to blame for the persistence of illicit money flows in their respective economies. But rather than pointing fingers, the US and the EU should start sharing pointers.

How the Market Is Betraying Advanced Economies
Diane Coyle (Project Syndicate) Apr 9, 2019
As lifestyles in the world's developing economies improve drastically, many in the advanced economies are seeing their wellbeing deteriorate – a trend that automation will only exacerbate. Without fundamental change in the framework of public policymaking, it is difficult to imagine a prosperous future in these societies.

Toward a Global Green New Deal
Richard Kozul-Wright and Kevin P. Gallagher (Project Syndicate) Apr 9, 2019
Though the 2008 financial crisis created an impetus to reinvigorate multilateralism, global paeans to cooperation ultimately did not lead to lasting solutions. Now that uneven economic recovery is combining with deteriorating environmental conditions to threaten humanity itself, world leaders must finish what they started.

Who’s Afraid of Low Inflation?
Daniel Gros (Project Syndicate) Apr 9, 2019
The fact that eurozone inflation is closer to 1% than 2% is not ideal, but the European Central Bank should not be overly concerned. The ECB does not need to pull out all the stops and invent ever more instruments in the forlorn hope of increasing inflation by a few tenths of a percentage point.

How to Liberate Algeria’s Economy
Rabah Arezki (Project Syndicate) Apr 9, 2019
Algeria’s economy is growing far too slowly to provide enough jobs for a young, expanding, and increasingly restless population. The country's authorities need to boost competition, spur the creation of a digital economy, and revamp state-owned enterprises.

Long Brexit pause makes sense for the EU and UK
FT View Apr 10, 2019
London should promise no disruptive antics in return for an extension.

Migration is as old as humanity and should be welcomed
David Pilling (FT) Apr 10, 2019
There are many reasons beyond the narrowly economic to support the free flow of people.

Donald Trump’s trade obsession keeps the peace with China
Janan Ganesh (FT) Apr 10, 2019
The US president is not interested in a clash of philosophies because of his fixation.

Crocodile capitalism and the multilateral system crisis
Kevin P Gallagher and Richard Kozul-Wright (FT) Apr 10, 2019
Why the world needs a ‘global green new deal’.

Carbon pricing should drive African development
Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala Apr 10, 2019
Three policy priorities to help the region lead the transition to a clean economy. There are many reasons beyond the narrowly economic to support the free flow of people

History teaches the value of thinking globally
Ken Fisher (FT) Apr 10, 2019
No country is an economic island. Individual nations wiggle, but major trends are worldwide.

Portugal: a European path out of austerity?
Peter Wise and Ben Hall (FT) Apr 10, 2019
The economy has rebounded since the centre-left government reversed post-crisis budget cuts.

‘China’s Manhattan’ Borrowed Heavily. The People Have Yet to Arrive.
Alexandra Stevenson and Cao Li (NYT) Apr 10, 2019
A largely empty urban district struggling with billions of dollars in debt demonstrates the breakdown of the Chinese economic growth model.

How Capitalism Betrayed Privacy
Tim Wu (NYT) Apr 10, 2019
The forces of wealth creation once fostered the right to be left alone. But that has changed.

EU and China sign a Mandate of Trade Heaven
Pepe Escobar (AT) Apr 10, 2019
Beijing promises an investment deal by next year, to curb industrial subsidies and the need for tech transfers, while the EU promises its own transport network.

The limits of leverage, continued
The limits of leverage, continued (AT) Apr 10, 2019
Too much debt is owned by the firms that are least able to service it, to the point that returns to the Fed’s easy money policy are now negative.

Reserve managers’ relationship with the dollar is unhealthy
Economist Apr 10, 2019
They may try to diversify, but the global currency will drag them back.

Weak Spots in Global Financial System Could Amplify Shocks
Tobias Adrian and Fabio Natalucci (IMF) Apr 10, 2019
In the United States, the ratio of corporate debt to GDP is at record-high levels. In several European countries, banks are overloaded with government bonds. In China, bank profitability is declining, and capital levels remain low at small and medium-size lenders.

High Debt Hampers Countries’ Response to a Fast-Changing Global Economy
Vitor Gaspar, John Ralyea, and Elif Ture (IMF) Apr 10, 2019
Policymakers should take a long-term view to foster higher and more inclusive growth.

Amid Political Change in Latin America, Investor Sentiment Has Adjusted in a Curious Way
Julyana Yokota (Brink) Apr 10, 2019
Uncertainty abounds in Latin America. As populist agendas rise in some countries, policy continuity is far from guaranteed, and investor sentiment for large-scale infrastructure projects has come under scrutiny. And yet, the investment environment is somewhat steadying.

Changes Are Coming to the Fed's Monetary Policy Strategy
Joseph E. Gagnon and Christopher G. Collins (PIIE) Apr 10, 2019
A politicized debate over the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve System has generated concerns about the future of its long tradition of deciding policy with minimal influence of noneconomic considerations. The potential arrival of two new voting members of the Fed's 12-member policy committee is not likely to materially change the Fed's course. As it happens, however, the Fed is conducting a major review this year of its monetary policy strategy. That review is timely and necessary, but the results of the review appear likely to fall short of addressing the serious challenges facing monetary policy.

Congress Spotlights the World Bank’s Private Sector Subsidies
Charles Kenny (CGD) Apr 10, 2019
I hope that congressional attention provides a needed spur to PSW reform efforts toward these three objectives of public-policy led, competitive, and transparent financing. It is time for the World Bank Group to live up to the principles it has signed up to.

Financing Options for Low-Income Countries
Masood Ahmed (CGD) Apr 10, 2019
Resources will remain scarce and maximizing the return on them requires careful project selection, prioritization of needs, and effective implementation. This is the sometimes-boring part of the development finance agenda but the need for it is greater than ever.

Do the Poor Want Cash Transfers or Public Services?
David Evans (CGD) Apr 10, 2019
Listen to the voices of citizens. But before throwing the cash transfer baby out with the bathwater, let’s make sure those citizens have clear information about their trade-offs.

Derivatives Are Still Too Dangerous
Bloomberg View Apr 10, 2019
Global regulators must ensure that their solution doesn’t make things worse.

A Brexit Delay? Time to Head to the Shops
Andrea Felsted (Bloomberg View) Apr 10, 2019
A delayed EU divorce date could give consumers a break from the negative news that makes them less inclined to spend.

We're Not Even Close to the Next Great Recession
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg View) Apr 10, 2019
The IMF’s latest numbers show a worrisome trajectory, but they aren’t terrible. We’re a long way from 2009.

Reality Catches Up With Italy's Populists
Ferdinando Giugliano (Bloomberg View) Apr 10, 2019
The government has admitted growth won't be what it hoped. It now needs to grasp the consequences of that.

Brexit Britain Is Tired of Weak Leaders
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Apr 10, 2019
Voters says they want strong leaders, but that doesn’t mean they are giving up on democracy.

Demographic Decline Is the Real Threat to the U.S.
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Apr 10, 2019
Trump says the country can’t admit more people, but immigration is the answer to heartland depopulation.

Will David Malpass Trump the World Bank?
Kevin Watkins (Project Syndicate) Apr 10, 2019
The World Bank is vital to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, which would transform the lives of millions. That is why it is so important that the Bank's incoming president strengthens its commitment to equity and avoids a narrow focus on economic growth.

Emerging Risks for Emerging Economies
Barry Eichengreen (Project Syndicate) Apr 10, 2019
The US Federal Reserve's pause on further monetary-policy tightening has fueled a revival of capital inflows. But, given the uncertainties about US policy and Chinese growth prospects, it is too early to conclude that emerging economies are out of the woods.

Brexit Identities
Andrés Velasco (Project Syndicate) Apr 10, 2019
Bad politics is more the rule than the exception around the world, so it should come as no surprise that the United Kingdom, where parliamentary democracy was born, is not immune. What is surprising is that the UK's withdrawal from the European Union should be the reef on which its political elite is crashing.

Peaceful Coexistence 2.0
Dani Rodrik (Project Syndicate) Apr 10, 2019
Today’s Sino-American impasse is rooted in “hyper-globalism,” under which countries must open their economies to foreign companies, regardless of the consequences for their growth strategies or social models. But a global trade regime that cannot accommodate the world’s largest trading economy is a regime in urgent need of repair.

The Trouble with Argentina’s Economy
Martin Guzman (Project Syndicate) Apr 10, 2019
With sustained economic growth, Argentina would be able to avoid another debt crisis. Although there are no silver bullets to put the economy on a more stable path, changing current macroeconomic policies would at least give the country a chance.

Next-generation technologies and the future of trade
Susan Lund and Jacques Bughin (VoxEU) Apr 10, 2019
The history of trade reflects the ongoing march of technological innovation. This column argues that despite today’s increased trade tensions, rising nationalism, and slowdown in global goods trade, globalisation is not in retreat. Instead, it is entering a new chapter that is being driven by flows of information and data, as well as technological changes that are reshaping industry value chains.

Mirror, mirror on the wall, who is the richest of them all?
Ricardo Perez-Truglia (VoxEU) Apr 10, 2019
Tax records became easily accessible online in Norway in 2001, allowing everyone in the country to observe the incomes of everyone else. This column offers evidence that people primarily went online to snoop on the incomes of friends, relatives, and other contacts. This game of income comparisons negatively affected the wellbeing of poorer Norwegians while at the same time boosting the self-esteem of the rich.

The IMF’s Fight for the Rules-based Order
James A. Haley (CIGI) Apr 10, 2019
As the global economy faces an increasingly uncertain future, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is faced with the daunting task of preserving the multilateralism at the organization's core.

Is India’s Modi a Reformer or a Performer?
Ruchir Sharma (FP) Apr 10, 2019
In India, good politics often have nothing do with sound economics.

How the US Can Win Its Trade War With China
Arjun Kapur (Diplomat) Apr 10, 2019
History provides the blueprint for a winning deal.

US-China trade dispute still hot air for some investors
Katie Martin (FT) Apr 11, 2019
Notion that risky assets will rip higher once Xi and Trump sign a deal may be faulty.

Why do the best and brightest EM companies sell shares elsewhere?
Steve Johnson (FT) Apr 11, 2019
Developing countries still account for a small portion of world market capitalisation.

Britain can now change its mind about Brexit
Philip Stephens (FT) Apr 11, 2019
Macron’s emergence as a latter-day de Gaulle should not stop a second referendum.

IMF warns on risk of rapid exit from emerging market assets
Steve Johnson (FT) Apr 11, 2019
Rise of passive, index-driven investment could have destabilising effect, says Fund.

An equation to ensure America survives the age of AI
Elizabeth Cobbs (FT) Apr 11, 2019
Three historical figures show how innovation, education and a safety can unlock prosperity.

Brexit is like a slow puncture for the UK economy
Chris Giles (FT) Apr 11, 2019
Heightened uncertainty and missed opportunities will mean additional public borrowing.

The alpha downshift in US inflation expectations
David Goldman (AT) Apr 11, 2019
More accommodation by the Fed won’t stimulate economic growth - it won’t even make mediocre returns at the company level look good by levering up the balance sheet.

How things could turn ugly with Brexit
Sebastian Mallaby (WP) Apr 11, 2019
If Theresa May can’t get a deal through Parliament, then what?

Brazil’s biggest anti-corruption investigation is at a turning point
Economist Apr 11, 2019
A chance to curb systemic graft could be squandered.

Central Banks Are Propping Up Stock Prices
Thorsten Polleit (Mises Wire) Apr 11, 2019
In the short term, a central bank can drive up stock prices by lowering the interest rate. In the longer term, it could sap the strength out of an economy

Anarchy Undelivered
Charles Kenny (CGD) Apr 11, 2019
The developing world has never been as prosperous, or as peaceful, healthy, and educated as it is now.

The IMF 30 Years After Brady
Rhoda Weeks-Brown and Martin Mühleisen (IMF) Apr 12, 2019
Last month marked the 30th anniversary of the announcement of the “Brady plan”.

Theresa May Drags Europe Into Brexit's Quicksand
Lionel Laurent (Bloomberg View) Apr 11, 2019
Brussels has done exactly what it said it didn’t want to do: Offer the U.K. an extension without any concrete plan of what the country means to do with it.

Don’t Let China’s Mini-Boom Fool You
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg View) Apr 11, 2019
Recent numbers are encouraging, but don’t mistake this season for a new era of resurgence.

What’s Missing From the U.S.-China Trade Deal
David R Hoffman (Bloomberg View) Apr 11, 2019
The only way to truly change Chinese commercial behavior is to open up the country to full and unhindered foreign competition.

Japan’s Economy Is Getting a Lot of Things Right
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Apr 11, 2019
The country, once a symbol of malaise, has made up for its lost decade.

Moore and Cain Could Fix the Federal Reserve
Jim Bianco (Bloomberg View) Apr 11, 2019
The central bank has suffered from groupthink for too long.

How China Turned 350 Million Millennials Into Day Traders
Shuli Ren (Bloomberg View) Apr 11, 2019
By cracking down on peer-to-peer lending, regulators have narrowed the options for young investors. That’s birthing a generation of gamblers.

Earnings Losers Are Market’s Biggest Winners
Stephen Gandel (Bloomberg View) Apr 11, 2019
Stock prices have become divorced from profit forecasts.

The World Bank Must Change Course
Bjørn Lomborg (Project Syndicate) Apr 11, 2019
The World Bank does a lot of important and effective work, especially in health and education, but its climate policies are poorly considered. The Bank’s new president, David Malpass, should refocus the institution on its core mission of eradicating poverty – including the energy poverty that wrecks so many lives.

The Future of Economic Growth
Jim O'Neill (Project Syndicate) Apr 11, 2019
Given the failures to foresee the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent weak recovery, it is easy to think that economists have little to offer in the way of predictions. But when it comes to national-level GDP growth, past projections have largely been borne out; even when wrong, they can be used to diagnose structural problems.

The great disinflation in emerging and developing economies
Jongrim Ha, M. Ayhan Kose and Franziska Ohnsorge (VoxEU) Apr 11, 2019
Emerging market and developing economies have achieved a remarkable decline in inflation since the early 1970s, supported by robust monetary policy frameworks, strengthening of global trade, financial integration, and the disruptions caused by the global crisis. The column argues that a continuation of low and stable inflation in these countries is not guaranteed. If this wave of structural and policy-related factors loses momentum, elevated inflation could re-emerge. Policymakers may find that maintaining low inflation is as difficult as achieving it.

The Modi Mirage
Gurcharan Das (FA) Apr 11, 2019
Why I fell out of love with India’s reformist prime minister.

How China Blew Its Chance in Eastern Europe
Andreea Brinza (FP) Apr 11, 2019
Seven years in, the 16+1 mechanism meant to close the investment gap in Central and Eastern Europe has largely flopped.

More gloom gathers over the world economy
FT View Apr 12, 2019
Both monetary and fiscal policymakers must be ready to do their part.

A new Brexit deadline offers respite for the UK
FT View Apr 12, 2019
British politicians must use the extra time to agree on EU exit terms.

A carbon tax is the nudge the world needs
Tim Harford (FT) Apr 12, 2019
Such a levy would pull billions of levers in a complex economy, saturated in fossil fuels.

Corporate America is failing to invest
Gillian Tett (FT) Apr 12, 2019
It is alarming that debt is so high at a time when companies are drowning in cash.

The private equity bubble is bound to burst
Patrick Jenkins (FT) Apr 12, 2019
There are worrying signs that the sector is becoming a victim of its own success.

Attacks by Trump risk damaging the Fed’s credibility
Mohamed El-Erian (FT) Apr 12, 2019
Investors should pay closer attention to the political pressure levelled at Powell.

The most complicated debt restructuring in history
Colby Smith (FT) Apr 12, 2019
Professor Odette Lienau talks about Venezuela, Argentina, and why vulture funds could do some good.

The Establishment Coup Against Brexit
Andrew Roberts (WSJ) Apr 12, 2019
What would Washington have done if Loyalists told him independence would cost America 3% of GDP?

Navigating Sub-Saharan Africa’s Recovery Amid Greater Uncertainty
IMF Apr 12, 2019
Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic recovery is set to continue, but along two tracks. Overall growth is set to pick up from 3 percent in 2018 to 3.5 percent in 2019, and stabilize at slightly below 4 percent over the medium term, the IMF said in its latest Regional Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa.

The Brexit Pause Gives Britain One Last Chance
Bloomberg View Apr 12, 2019
It isn’t too late for a popular vote to prevent a historic error.

Closing Europe’s Confidence Gap
Ana Palacio (Project Syndicate) Apr 12, 2019
The dearth of public trust and self-confidence in the European Union is contributing to policy paralysis, fueling public outrage, and undercutting the EU's ability to determine its own destiny. Both before and after next month’s European Parliament election, these deficits must urgently be addressed.

The Brexit Impossibility Triangle
Emily Jones (Project Syndicate) Apr 12, 2019
As the United Kingdom's chaotic quest to leave the European Union drags on, the country's leaders need to accept that the primary objectives of Brexit are, and always have been, mutually incompatible. Sadly, their refusal to acknowledge this is indicative of the kind of leadership that led to the current impasse.

Multilateralism’s Crisis Is an Opportunity
Liu Zhenmin (Project Syndicate) Apr 12, 2019
Increasingly destructive natural disasters, geopolitical shifts, and glaring inequalities have forced the international community to acknowledge that existing frameworks for addressing global issues collectively are in need of an overhaul. In fact, this may be the world's last chance to get serious about sustainable development.

Is Europe Becoming Gaullist?
Zaki Laïdi (Project Syndicate) Apr 12, 2019
Seventy-four years after the end of World War II, Europeans are still divided over competing notions of national sovereignty and regional integration. But with the rise of China and the fraying of transatlantic relations, the geostrategic vision of France’s Charles de Gaulle has inevitably returned to the fore.

How Britain unified Germany: Endogenous trade costs and the formation of a customs union
Thilo Huning and Nikolaus Wolf (VoxEU) Apr 12, 2019
Nation state borders are not above contention, and have shifted often in even the medium term due to both political and economic disputes. This column shows how the formation of the German state can be traced back to British intervention in treaty talks at the end of the Napoleonic War. In preventing Russia from gaining territory westwards, Britain set in motion a series of events that gave Prussia strategic trade advantages that allowed it to create a customs union which would go on to form the German state.

The return to protectionism
Pablo Fajgelbaum, Pinelopi Goldberg, Patrick Kennedy and Amit Khandelwal (VoxEU) Apr 12, 2019
The 2018 tariff hikes reversed a decades-long push by the US for lower global trade barriers around the world. This column examines the impact of the resulting trade war on the US economy. It estimates a $68.8 billion annual loss to US consumers and firms from higher import prices, with an aggregate annual loss of $7.8 billion when producer gains and tariff revenues are factored in. It also argues that US tariffs protected politically competitive counties, whereas retaliations by other nations targeted strongly Republican counties.

Predicting the Yield Curve Inversions that Predict Recessions: Part 1
Matthew Famiglietti and Carlos Garriga (FRBSL Econ Sypnopses) Apr 12, 2019
Current macroeconomic variables have some predictive power for recessions but generally are preceded by yield curve inversions.

Investors look to emerging markets amid IMF’s prognosis
Jonathan Wheatley (FT) Apr 13, 2019
What can policymakers do to speed up growth and sustain recovery?

The independence of central banks is under threat from politics
Economist Apr 13, 2019
That is bad news for the world.

The Neutral Interest Rate: The Fed's Impossible Goal
Frank Shostak (Mises Wire) Apr 13, 2019
A "neutral" interest rate cannot be observed through any statistical test or public policy. But central bankers are sure they can find it and use it to endlessly tinker with the economy.

Are the World Bank and IMF Failing the World?
Frank Vogl (Globalist) Apr 13, 2019
Amidst Trump administration flame-throwing, top experts worry about the ability of the main multilateral institutions safeguarding the global economy.

Will China Undermine Its Own Influence in Southeast Asia Through the Belt and Road?
Xue Gong (Diplomat) Apr 13, 2019
China’s activism in relation to the BRI has led to rising concerns in Southeast Asia.

A trade deal might help China’s needed reforms
FT View Apr 14, 2019
The non-state sector, not state enterprises, should drive growth.

ECB considers options to combat low inflation
Gavyn Davies (FT) Apr 14, 2019
Draghi’s successor will need new weapons to reform monetary policy.

What Donald Trump gets right
Rana Foroohar (FT) Apr 14, 2019
The president understands monetary policy has done more for the markets than Main Street.

Modi’s Reform Disappointment
WSJ Apr 14, 2019
India’s PM may win re-election despite his economic record.

Brazil’s Would-Be Giant Slayer
Mary Anastasia O’Grady (WSJ) Apr 14, 2019
Economy Minister Paulo Guedes takes on the country’s bloated bureaucracy.

What really caused the financial crisis?
Robert Samuelson (WP) Apr 14, 2019
A new book offers some answers and sensible suggestions to reduce the odds of a future crisis.

The UK and the Future of the EU
Globalist Apr 14, 2019
Key facts on Brexit and the UK’s economic future explained in charts.

The U.S. Doesn’t Need a New Trade Deal With Japan
Bloomberg View Apr 14, 2019
The White House should instead rethink its withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

The Secret to Modi’s Success
Pankaj Mishra (Bloomberg View) Apr 14, 2019
Like other social media superstars, he has sold his followers a shiny fantasy that obscures their mundane reality.

Why China Should Switch Sides in Venezuela
Juan Guaido (Bloomberg View) Apr 14, 2019
Our country will be a source of prosperity that fulfills its commitments and ensures security to investors, pledges its interim president.

What the Data Say About China and the Global Economy
Mohamed Aly El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Apr 14, 2019
Short-term improvements don’t warrant long-term optimism.

Global asset managers eye hordes of Chinese investors
Yusuf Khan (FT)s Apr 15, 2019
Chart to start the week: doubling market share would bring in $500bn of new assets.

How to funnel capital to the American heartland
Bruce Katz (FT) Apr 15, 2019
Ways must be found to rewire money flows in order to reverse the export of wealth.

Trade talks might not crack the final frontier
Gordon Watts (AT) Apr 15, 2019
The US will struggle to get China to dump its state subsidies model especially in high-tech sector

How to jump-start America
Jonathan Gruber and Simon Johnson (Boston Globe) Apr 15, 2019
Government support for science can create an economic tide that lifts all boats.

China’s backdoor to Europe
Theodore Pelagidis (Brookings) Apr 15, 2019
A prospective trade agreement between the European Union and China could further advance China’s ambition to become the world’s 21st-century superpower. Theodore Pelagidis argues that the country’s Belt and Road Initiative offers a vital platform to get there.

How global value chains open opportunities for developing countries
David Dollar (Brookings) Apr 15, 2019
More than two-thirds of world trade today takes place within value chains that break up the process of production across countries, a system that has been a boon to developing countries like China and Vietnam.

France Threatens a Digital Tax: Will the US Retaliate?
Gary Clyde Hufbauer (PIIE) Apr 15, 2019
Undeterred by warnings from the US government, France has imposed a digital tax that targets US tech giants—firms like Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google.

This Brexit Delay Is a Bond Market Opportunity
Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg View) Apr 15, 2019
With the EU divorce now months away, there’s plenty of time for the yield-hunters to swoop on U.K. corporate bonds.

Immigration Has Long-Term Benefits
Stephen Mihm (Bloomberg View) Apr 15, 2019
Counties that had substantial influxes of newcomers a century ago are still doing the best today.

Guess Which Mediterranean Economy Didn’t Crumble
Matthew A Winkler (Bloomberg View) Apr 15, 2019
Global investors recently bought 2.5 billion euros’ of Greek bonds. They weren’t hallucinating.

The Fed Needs to Fight the Next Recession Now
Narayana Kocherlakota (Bloomberg View) Apr 15, 2019
Its tools are limited, so the central must compensate by being aggressive.

Ignoring China Is Easier Said Than Done
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg View) Apr 15, 2019
Economic nationalism only goes so far when infrastructure needs are so pressing. Countries are better off using their leverage to get improved terms from Beijing.

The Next Housing Boom Looks More Sustainable
Conor Sen (Bloomberg View) Apr 15, 2019
Rising minimum wages will allow many working-class Americans to buy a first home.

Want to Find an Independent Central Bank? Try China
Shuli Ren (Bloomberg View) Apr 15, 2019
Everyone knows who holds the power in Beijing. But, for now, the People’s Bank is wisely fending off pressure to open up the taps.

‘Belt and Road’ Will Help the World. China? Not So Much.
Tyler Cowen (Bloomberg View) Apr 15, 2019
Investing in struggling countries carries big risks that are likely to undermine global power ambitions.

Our Zero-Emission Future
Jeffrey D. Sachs (Project Syndicate) Apr 15, 2019
A low-cost shift to clean energy is now feasible for every region of the world, owing to the plummeting costs of solar and wind power, and breakthroughs in energy storage. The total system costs of renewable energy, including transmission and storage, are now roughly on par with fossil fuels.

How to Tax a Multinational
Jayati Ghosh (Project Syndicate) Apr 15, 2019
For too long, multinational corporations – and digital firms in particular – have used existing rules to avoid paying taxes in countries where they do much of their business. But recent encouraging signs suggest that the idea of a global corporate tax on these companies' profits is gaining traction.

Will Free Trade Make Africans Sick?
Walter Ochieng (Project Syndicate) Apr 15, 2019
The new African Continental Free Trade Area could yield enormous economic benefits once it takes effect. But African governments must act immediately to address the AfCFTA's potential negative implications for Africans' health.

Ethnic inequality and poverty in Malaysia since May 1969
Martin Ravallion (VoxEU) Apr 15, 2019
It is 50 years since the Sino-Malay race riots in Kuala Lumpur prompted a policy effort to reduce Malaysia’s longstanding ethnic inequalities. This column argues that while reduced ethnic/racial disparities in living standards has played an important role in the country's ability to manage overall relative inequality and in its impressive progress against poverty over the last 50 years, overall economic growth has been more important. However, the potential gains to poor Malaysians from progress toward ethnic equality do not appear to have been exhausted yet.

US achievement gaps hold steady in the face of substantial policy initiatives
Eric Hanushek, Paul Peterson, Laura M. Talpey and Ludger Woessmann (VoxEU) Apr 15, 2019
For 50 years, anti-poverty government programmes in the US have focused on improving school outcomes for poor children. This column reports new evidence that, contrary to recent thinking that gaps in student achievement by socioeconomic status have increased over the years, the gaps have been essentially flat over the past half-century. New policies and new approaches seem called for if we wish to lessen these gaps.

The Belt and Road: The Good, the Bad, and the Mixed
Angela Tritto and Alvin Camba (Diplomat) Apr 15, 2019
Demystifying China’s Belt and Road Initiative through 3 case studies.

Predicting the Yield Curve Inversions that Predict Recessions: Part 2
Matthew Famiglietti and Carlos Garriga (FRBSL Econ Sypnopses) Apr 15, 2019
To what extent expectations of future economic activity begin to decline prior to yield curve inversions?

The Evolution of the FOMC’s Explicit Inflation Target
Adam Shapiro and Daniel J. Wilson (FRBSF Econ Letter) Apr 15, 2019
Analyzing the narrative of historical Federal Open Market Committee meeting transcripts provides insights about how inflation target preferences of participants have evolved over time. From around 2000 until the Great Recession, there was general consensus among participants that their inflation target should be about 1½%, significantly below both average inflation over the period and survey measures of longer-run inflation expectations. By the end of the recession in 2009, however, the consensus had shifted up to 2%, which became the official target announced to the public in January 2012.

Efforts of Oil Exporters in the Middle East and North Africa to Diversify Away from Oil Have Fallen Short
Adnan Mazarei (PIIE) Apr 15, 2019
Faced with fluctuating oil prices and other uncertainties, the oil-rich countries of the Middle East and North Africa have made efforts—some for decades—to diversify their exports, in order to reduce their dependence on oil revenue and generate much-needed jobs.

What Happens if the USMCA Doesn't Happen?
Jay Bryson (WF) Apr 15, 2019
The U.S. Congress has not yet ratified the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. If Congress does not ultimately ratify the deal, the United States could potentially withdraw from the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Sudan’s new regime has still to prove its sincerity
FT View Apr 16, 2019
Protesters worry there is nothing credible to replace the old guard.

Learn from the failings of South Korea’s conglomerates
FT View Apr 16, 2019
Dysfunctional chaebol show family owners how not to behave.

Oil rally gives Saudi Arabia a chance to be steward of stability
David Sheppard (FT) Apr 16, 2019
Trump has pushed Opec not to let prices go too high for the sake of the global economy and his re-election hopes.

There is no need for the Fed to step on the gas
Megan Greene (FT) Apr 16, 2019
Markets are wrong to think Powell should adopt Draghi’s strategy of monetary easing.

Splintered Libor transition raises risks for banks
Philip Stafford (FT) Apr 16, 2019
Benchmark is embedded in everything from sophisticated derivatives to mortgages.

China’s stimulus: not like it used to be
David Lubin (FT) Apr 16, 2019
Flip-flopping between growth and debt targets weakens positive feedback loop.

How Xi overplayed his hand with America
David Ignatius (WP) Apr 16, 2019
China’s “brain gain” effort was so aggresssive that it backfired.

Making everyone part of the liberal elite
Brian Caplen (Banker) Apr 16, 2019
Countries, companies and banks need to engage people in the strategy debate.

How the Brexit Extension Could Scramble British and European Political Party Fortunes
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE) Apr 16, 2019
The latest Brexit deadline extension seems likely to prolong Britain's nervous breakdown over its association with the European Union until October 31. But deferral could also lead to a significant and more immediate change in the political makeup of Europe itself.

The Truth About Jobs in India
Shamika Ravi (Bloomberg View) Apr 16, 2019
Politicians can debate endlessly about whether employment numbers are rising or falling. The data we do have tells a more interesting story.

Where $17 Billion in Shifted Tariffs Might Land
David Fickling (Bloomberg View) Apr 16, 2019
Any transfer of farm levies to other export sectors would leave valuable parts of America’s economy in jeopardy. Alternatives aren’t clear cut.

How to Stop Rising Inequality in the Next Recession
Stephen Gandel (Bloomberg View) Apr 16, 2019
Policies that help Main Street more than Wall Street would be a start.

Trump’s Trade War With China Doesn’t Look Like a Win
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Apr 16, 2019
Prevailing against a fast-growing country run by autocrats isn’t so easy.

This Commodities Rally’s Got Legs
David Fickling (Bloomberg View) Apr 16, 2019
Despite Beijing's efforts to target its stimulus, a repeat of the 2016 building boom is likely to spur demand.

The Next Recession Is Coming. Now What?
Shira Ovide (Bloomberg View) Apr 16, 2019
Income inequality worsened after the last downturn. Central bankers need to employ different tactics to prevent a repeat.

The Digital Revolution’s Silent Majority
Edoardo Campanella (Project Syndicate) Apr 16, 2019
An abiding mystery of the twenty-first-century economy is tepid productivity growth despite the emergence of cutting-edge technologies with the potential to disrupt entire industries. But there could be a simple explanation: the attention these technologies receive is wildly disproportionate to their scale and scope.

The Closing of the Chinese Mind
Minxin Pei (Project Syndicate) Apr 16, 2019
Lou Jiwei is a hard-charging reformer with an illustrious record of accomplishments. The Chinese government's decision to dismiss him from his post as chairman of the national social security fund underscores the dangerous ways in which President Xi Jinping has transformed decision-making in China.

It’s too soon for optimism about convergence
Paul Johnson and Chris Papageorgiou (VoxEU) Apr 16, 2019
The recent wave of growth in several developing economies has led to many analysts to claim that poorer countries are catching up with advanced economies. This column argues that, with the exception of a few countries in Asia which exhibited transformational growth, most of the economic achievements in developing economies have been the result of removing inefficiencies which are merely one-off level effects. While these effects are not unimportant and are necessary in the process of development, they do not imply ongoing economic growth.

Indirect trade and direct trade: Evidence from Japanese firms
Tadashi Ito and Yukiko Saito (VoxEU) Apr 16, 2019
Small and medium-sized firms can enjoy the benefits of trade liberalisation by exporting their goods or importing inputs through intermediaries. Using firm-level data from Japan, this column finds that firms in regional areas are smaller than those in metropolitan areas and are less likely to participate in indirect or direct trade. Direct and indirect exports and imports represent a large share of regional economies, and indirect exporters in regional areas are likely to become direct exporters. In addition, both newly started direct export/import firms and newly started indirect export/import firms tend to grow faster.

Brexit Agonistes
Jolyon Howorth (YaleGlobal) Apr 16, 2019
EU members set firm deadline and expect no disruptions.

What Will It Take for Cambodia to Actually Strike Oil and Gas?
Danielle Keeton-Olsen (Diplomat) Apr 16, 2019
The government is once again heralding oil and gas prospects offshore and on, but it’s done so twice before.

Cities Will Determine the Future of Diplomacy
Nina Hachigian (FP) Apr 16, 2019
Global issues including climate change and income inequality often concentrate in cities, which offer some of the most innovative solutions.

Do we need an IMF to regulate the internet?
Gillian Tett (FT) Apr 17, 2019
Today’s economies are built on data as well as money. It’s time global institutions caught up.

China battles America in the AI arms race
Martin Wolf (FT) Apr 17, 2019
What counts is implementation not innovation, and here the Chinese have big advantages.

Private equity takes juicing the numbers to the next level
Robert Smith (FT) Apr 17, 2019
Firms are giving themselves credit for cost-cutting even before they have bought the company.

Argentina’s foreign exchange regime is broken
Marcos Buscaglia, Miguel A Kiguel and Eduardo Levy Yeyati (FT) Apr 17, 2019
It must be fixed before it is too late.

Trust in index investing has paid off handsomely
John Redwood (FT) Apr 17, 2019
Active stock pickers have work to do to see which companies can adapt to the digital age.

The Fed and the Professor Standard
Herman Cain (WSJ) Apr 17, 2019
The central bank needs new voices that will speak up for a stable dollar, which leads to prosperity.

China’s growth is set to perk up after a decade low
Economist Apr 17, 2019
Rising credit and an infrastructure programme point to a coming rebound.

Where growth is concerned, is population destiny?
Economist Apr 17, 2019
New research suggests that, in the very long run, size is a great advantage.

Japan starts its kabuki performance with Trump
William Pesek (AT) Apr 17, 2019
If Trump thinks Japan is going to be easily rolled on trade, he’s missing the plot.

US Firms Are Less Dynamic Than They Used To Be
Jason Furman, Peter Orszag and Wilson Powell III (PIIE) Apr 17, 2019
Since the early 1980s, firm dynamism—the process by which companies enter or leave the market—has markedly slowed. New businesses are forming a third less frequently, while the exit rate has remained relatively steady.

A Post-Brexit Customs Union and Global Development: The Best of All Worlds?
Hannah Timmis and Owen Barder (CGD) Apr 17, 2019
In a customs union with the EU, the UK could pursue reforms in services liberalisation, Aid for Trade, investment promotion, labour standards and bilateral trade agreements, while maintaining EU tariffs on goods imports. This may be its best trade-for-development strategy after Brexit.

The Fed's Fabled Soft Landing? It's Actually Happening
Timothy A Duy (Bloomberg View) Apr 17, 2019
By avoiding an imminent recession, the central bank’s focus now shifts to sustaining the expansion.

China’s Bond Market Reaches a Tipping Point
Mary L Schapiro (Bloomberg View) Apr 17, 2019
The inclusion of yuan-denominated securities in the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index shows growing confidence by international investors.

The Fed Will Have to Risk More in the Next Recession
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Apr 17, 2019
Among the options: Tolerating faster inflation or dropping helicopter money.

Skip the Party for China’s Economy
Shira Ovide (Bloomberg View) Apr 17, 2019
Relatively healthy growth belies the country’s systemic problems.

For Private Equity, Japan Still Beats China
Nisha Gopalan (Bloomberg View) Apr 17, 2019
The country presents more attractive targets, for reasons that are as much political as financial.

China's Growth Story Has Plenty of Holes
Christopher Balding (Bloomberg View) Apr 17, 2019
Don’t get carried away by the green shoots. Ample data show that Beijing’s targets are increasingly unrealistic.

Getting Exchange Rates Right
Nikhil Patel and Shang-Jin Wei (Project Syndicate) Apr 17, 2019
Standard calculations of a country’s real effective exchange rate (REER) ignore global value chains that spread production processes across countries. Taking this factor into account leads to more accurate REER calculations, which can have profound policy implications.

Industry/Policy View: China’s High Savings: Drivers, Prospects, and Policies
Longmei Zhang, Ding Ding, Hui He and Rui C. Mano (VoxChina) Apr 17, 2019
China’s high national savings rate—one of the highest in the world—is at the heart of its external/internal imbalances. High savings finance elevated investment when held domestically, and lead to external imbalances when they flow abroad. Today, China’s higher savings, compared to the global average, mostly emanate from the household sector, due to demographic changes induced by the 1979 one-child policy and the reshaping of the social safety net in the 1990s. Housing reform and rising income inequality also contribute to higher household savings. Moving forward, rapid ageing will put downward pressure on savings. Still, policy efforts to strengthen the social safety net and reduce income inequality are needed to reduce savings further and boost consumption.

Greening monetary policy
Dirk Schoenmaker (VoxEU) Apr 17, 2019
The ECB’s market-neutral approach to monetary policy undermines the general aim of the EU to achieve a low-carbon economy. The column argues that steering the allocation of the Eurosystem’s assets and collateral towards low-carbon sectors would reduce the cost of capital for these sectors relative to high-carbon sectors. A modest titling approach could accelerate a transition to a low-carbon economy, and could be implemented without interfering with the priority of price stability.

A New Framework to Estimate Potential GDP
Azhar Iqbal(WF) Apr 17, 2019
In this report, we present a new methodology for estimating potential GDP, GDP-optimal. Our method is an alternative to the Congressional Budget Office potential GDP measure, which is widely used to gauge U.S. potential output.

Green Shoots or Rogue Weeds?
ick Bennenbroek (WF) Apr 17, 2019
Today's constructive activity data confirmed the encouraging signs seen from recent Chinese PMI surveys while, for now, Chinese authorities seem unlikely to pullback on current stimulus measures.

How Remain can win a second referendum
Simon Kuper (FT) Apr 18, 2019
Remainers should focus on improving the UK’s future, not on fighting yesterday’s battles.

Trump dilemma: let oil prices rise or lose face against Iran
David Sheppard (FT) Apr 18, 2019
Not a good time for White House to tighten sanctions as crude hits a year high.

High returns will be hard to come by in these frustrating times
Nikhil Srinivasan (FT) Apr 18, 2019
Investors must weigh a hamstrung Fed, a fragile eurozone and a recuperating China.

Too good to be bad: the misplaced focus on recession risks
Michael Strobaek (FT) Apr 18, 2019
Risk/reward balance in equities remains tilted towards the latter.

China’s state-led growth will run out of puff
scoutAsia Research (FT) Apr 18, 2019
Policymakers cheer Q1 data but economy will struggle without private sector recovery.

Lure of ‘melt-up’ trade leaves holdouts in tough spot
Michael Mackenzie (FT) Apr 18, 2019
Double-digit gains for equities heap pressure on money sitting on the sidelines.

Europe's New Leaders Need to Think Now about the Next Economic Downturn
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE) Apr 18, 2019
Europe has rebounded nicely, if unevenly, after its last double-dip recession by relying on the monetary stimulus of the European Central Bank (ECB) and other central banks.

The next step of the Belt and Road Initiative: Multilateralisation with Chinese characteristics
Alicia García-Herrero and Jianwei Xu (Bruegel) Apr 18, 2019
The increasingly broad objective of China's Belt and Road Initiative has attracted the attention not only from the BRI members, but also from other major players such as the United States and the European Union.

India Should Beware of Saudi Aramco's Billions
David Fickling (Bloomberg View) Apr 18, 2019
The country is already too reliant on imported crude. Cozying up to the Middle Eastern giant will only make matters worse.

China’s Economic Miracle Has Markets Wanting More
John Authers (Bloomberg View) Apr 18, 2019
Yes, the amount of debt has exploded, but that’s O.K. — for now. Also, healthcare stocks will do just fine.

Is Spain About to Become the Next Italy?
Ferdinando Giugliano (Bloomberg View) Apr 18, 2019
While the rise of the anti-immigrant, anti-feminist Vox movement is alarming, the possible outcomes of this month’s election look relatively benign.

Italy Is an Accident Waiting To Happen
Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg View) Apr 18, 2019
Bond investors are starting to position for a seemingly inevitable repeat of last year’s budget showdown between Brussels and Rome.

The Eternally Optimistic IMF
Ashoka Mody (Project Syndicate) Apr 18, 2019
The International Monetary Fund believes that ringing alarm bells on global economic growth is not its job, especially with many observers spotting signs of improvement in the past few weeks. But with economic conditions set to worsen before they improve, complacency is likely to have a high cost.

The IMF Is Fueling an Argentine Crisis – Again
Hector R. Torres (Project Syndicate) Apr 18, 2019
In little more than three years, Argentine President Mauricio Macri's government has already signed two agreements with the International Monetary Fund. And recent developments suggest that the country’s long and troubled history with the Fund may be about to repeat itself.

The slope of the term structure and recessions in the UK
Terence Mills, Forrest Capie and Charles Goodhart (VoxEU) Apr 18, 2019
It is well known that the slope of the term structure of interest rates contains information for forecasting the likelihood of a recession in the US. This column examines whether the same is true for the UK. Focusing on three periods – the pre-WWI era, the inter-war years, and the post-WWII period – it finds strong support for the inverted yield curve being a predictor of UK recessions for both the pre-WWI and post-WWII periods, but the evidence is less conclusive for the inter-war years.

Britain is once again the sick man of Europe
Martin Wolf (FT) Apr 19, 2019
If treachery becomes part of the debate, there can only be total victory or total defeat,

Brexit Britain must avoid self-pity and revenge
Gideon Rachman (FT) Apr 19, 2019
A sense of national humiliation is unnecessary and even dangerous.

Socialist! Capitalist! Economic Systems as Weapons in a War of Words
Andrew Ross Sorkin (NYT) Apr 19, 2019
The economist Joseph Stiglitz discusses Bernie Sanders, social policy and how we define ourselves — and one another.

Progressive Capitalism Is Not an Oxymoron
Joseph E. Stiglitz (NYT) Apr 19, 2019
We can save our broken economic system from itself.

China's road to a win-win ahead of BRI forum
Pepe Escobar (AT) Apr 19, 2019
The pieces in Beijing's massive puzzle are starting to come together.

The dark side of China’s latest rebound
William Pesek (AT) Apr 19, 2019
China, and the global economy, may be in for a rough ride in 2020.

Mayday for American Protectionism
Anne O. Krueger (Project Syndicate) Apr 19, 2019
The Merchant Marine Act of 1920 – which stipulates that only American ships can transport goods between US ports – has long been a protectionist drag on the US economy. Rather than celebrating the law's centenary next year, policymakers should throw it overboard.

The Monetization of Garbage
Stephen Nwaloziri (Project Syndicate) Apr 19, 2019
Lagos, Nigeria, has made some progress in tackling its enormous waste problem, but much more can, and must, be done. As other cities have found, establishing the proper incentives, including financial inducements, would encourage residents of poorer neighborhoods, in particular, to participate in the clean-up of the city.

Capitalism’s Great Reckoning
James K. Galbraith (Project Syndicate) Apr 19, 2019
As the maladies of modern capitalism have multiplied, fundamental questions about the future of the world’s dominant economic model have become impossible to ignore. But in the absence of viable alternatives, the question is how to reform a system that is increasingly at odds with democracy.

China’s Belt and Road could have been great but now threatens to be disastrous
Isabel Hilton (Prospect) Apr 19, 2019
Is it too late to salvage something good from Beijing’s monumental development project?

Realism is set to strike over the Brexit timescale
Wolfgang Münchau (FT) Apr 21, 2019
Germany is gaining a wider consensus on a hard deadline. Macron is winning the argument.

The Case for Monetary Regime Change
Judy Shelton (WSJ) Apr 21, 2019
Central bankers aren’t omniscient. A linked-currency system could improve economic growth.

Jokowi back to the job of dealing with financial market realities
Adam Triggs, Febrio Kacaribu and Jiao Wang (EAF) Apr 21, 2019
When a financial crisis hits, speed is everything. If authorities are slow to act, liquidity shortages can become solvency crises, banking crises can become currency crises, currency crises can become sovereign debt crises and what started as a financial crisis quickly becomes an economic and political crisis. Staying ahead of the curve is critical.

Who’s to Blame for India’s Slowdown?
Neelkanth Mishra (Bloomberg View) Apr 21, 2019
There’s been a visible deceleration in activity lately, and the main culprit is a familiar one: the government’s banks.

What’s Missing for a Market ‘Melt Up’
Mohamed Aly El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Apr 21, 2019
Stronger global fundamentals need to underpin elevated asset prices, and the Fed must maintain a tricky policy balance as the U.S. continues to outperform advanced countries.

Forty years of inequality in Europe
Thomas Blanchet, Lucas Chancel and Amory Gethin (VoxEU) Apr 21, 2019
Despite the growing importance of inequalities in policy debates, it is still difficult to compare inequality levels across European countries and to tell how European growth has been shared across income groups. This column draws on new evidence combining surveys, tax data, and national accounts to document a rise in income inequality in most European countries between 1980 and 2017. It finds that income disparities on the old continent have increased less than in the US and shows that this is essentially due to ‘predistribution’ policies.

Trade wars and global value chains: Shooting oneself in the foot
Cecilia Bellora and Lionel Fontagné (VoxEU) Apr 22, 2019
Since 2018, the US administration has implemented several measures limiting free trade with China and other countries. Using cross-country data and a general equilibrium model, this column argues that a trade war hurts not only the targeted countries but also the country imposing the tariffs. Global value chains prompt countries to decrease tariffs when the domestic content of foreign-produced final goods and the imported content of domestic production of final goods are high. Once imposed, tariffs have an indirect effect on third sectors and countries through global value chains.

Macro hedge funds hopeful the good times are back
Laurence Fletcher (FT) Apr 22, 2019
Broader market conditions look more favourable after QE’s distorting effects.

The global race for 5G supremacy is not yet won
Rana Foroohar (FT) Apr 22, 2019
It is important which countries build their networks first, but it’s not the only factor in success.

Argentina’s growing poverty raises tough questions for IMF
Benedict Mander (FT) Apr 22, 2019
Necessary social spending could increase the deficit and once again spook the markets.

Brexit has a chance to kick-start a period of radical change
John Thornhill (FT) Apr 22, 2019
Britain could end up being one of the most interesting and revolutionary places.

A new era requires an optimistic new model in Japan
Gideon Rachman (FT) Apr 22, 2019
The success or failure of efforts to inject dynamism into the country will affect the whole world.

A Goal for Iran’s Oil Exports: Zero
WSJ Apr 22, 2019
American frackers can reduce the impact of higher crude prices.

Oil Exporters in Middle East and North Africa Have Made Uneven Progress to Diversify Economies
Adnan Mazarei (PIIE) Apr 22, 2019
Pressures have risen in recent years for oil-rich countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to diversify exports as they face uncertain oil revenues, growing unemployment among young people, and rising concerns about climate change.

Central Banks May be Enabling Unhealthy Corporate Buyouts
Pia Rennert and Gunther Schnabl (Mises Wire) Apr 22, 2019
Rather than increase efficiency and profitability, corporate managers look for easy ways to increase their salaries through leveraged buyouts. And central banks have a key role in making this easier and more common.

An Old Tool to Fight a New Recession: Perishable Money
Stephen Mihm (Bloomberg View) Apr 22, 2019
Note to the Fed: A currency that lost value unless it was spent right away worked wonders in Depression-era Austria.

China’s Scariest Assets Are Hiding Under Your Bed
Shuli Ren (Bloomberg View) Apr 22, 2019
Beijing is opening up the municipal bond market to retail investors. But billing these securities as safe is a big mistake.

The International Economic Policy Game
Koichi Hamada (Project Syndicate) Apr 22, 2019
All human interaction is characterized by a mixture of competition and cooperation, and that extends to international trade and monetary policy. Which approach is preferable depends on the context, including what the other players are doing.

Bipolar Markets in the “New Mediocre”
Nouriel Roubini (Project Syndicate) Apr 22, 2019
After the global risk-off of late 2018, a newfound dovishness on the part of central bankers has combined with other positive developments to revive investors' animal spirits. But with a wide array of financial and political risks clearly in view, one should not assume that the current ebullience will last the year.

Trump’s Big Iran Oil Gamble
Keith Johnson and Robbie Gramer (FP) Apr 22, 2019
By seeking to cut Iranian oil exports to zero, the Trump administration is taking major economic and political risks.

BRI-inclined Europeans need keen eye for detail
FT View Apr 23, 2019
China’s Belt and Road Initiative has had drawbacks elsewhere.

Tranquillity reigns but markets are scarred by last year’s mayhem
Robin Wigglesworth (FT) Apr 23, 2019
Fears are natural given December’s sell-off and concerns over the global economy.

A new era requires an optimistic new model in Japan
Gideon Rachman (FT) Apr 23, 2019
The success or failure of efforts to inject dynamism into the country will affect the whole world.

Japan’s howl of rage against the aged gains a name
Leo Lewis (FT) Apr 23, 2019
‘Rougai’ reflects a feeling that the young are being outnumbered and harassed by the old.

The EU’s post-Brexit finance ambitions miss an important point
Colm Kelleher (FT) Apr 23, 2019
Lost in the London v Europe dogfight is a larger truth — the market is global, not regional.

Stocks Just Hit a Record. Thank the Fed.
Matt Phillips (NYT) Apr 23, 2019
The bull market lives, thanks to the Federal Reserve’s new, more relaxed approach to interest rates.

The forgotten victims of China’s Belt and Road Initiative
Aaron Halegua and Jerome A. Cohen (WP) Apr 23, 2019
Overseas Chinese workers are particularly vulnerable to exploitation.

Has Asia's middle class creation peaked?
Simon Roughneen (AT) Apr 23, 2019
New OECD research sends a warning on the sustainability of trends that have lifted millions of Asians out of poverty and into the consumer class.

What else China can do to support growth in the short term
Alicia García-Herrero (Corner/Bruegel) Apr 23, 2019
Recent data shows the downward spiral in the Chinese economy has somewhat eased on a cyclical basis, but it is still too early to cheer for a full stabilization.

Six Recommendations for Making Basel III Work for Emerging Markets and Developing Economies
Liliana Rojas-Suarez and Thorsten Beck (CGD) Apr 23, 2019
The 2008 crisis originated in the financial systems of advanced countries. Not surprisingly, one of the important responses to prevent another credit crunch, the Basel III international standards, is focused primarily on the stability needs of these countries. Basel III, a detailed and wide-ranging set of measures developed by a forum of bank regulators representing mainly the G20 nations, aims to strengthen the regulation, supervision and risk management of large banks around the world. While it is calibrated primarily for advanced countries, many emerging markets are in the process of adopting and adapting to these rules. Many others, too, are considering it.

Better Inflation Targets Will Help in the Next Recession
Ramesh Ponnuru (Bloomberg View) Apr 23, 2019
The current framework is outdated and harmful. Long live the dollar-spending target.

The Fed’s Dual Mandate Is Outdated
Jim Bianco (Bloomberg View) Apr 23, 2019
The Federal Reserve Reform Act of 1977 promoting maximum employment and stable prices no longer makes sense in an information-age economy.

Save Indian Capitalism From Indian Capitalists
Andy Mukherjee (Bloomberg View) Apr 23, 2019
Banks and capital markets too often give tycoons a free pass to destroy companies such as Jet Airways.

The Arab Spring’s Second Chance
Ishac Diwan (Project Syndicate) Apr 23, 2019
Demonstrators in Algeria and Sudan want to reduce the army's political role, and seem to have learned the lessons from a decade of stymied political transitions in the region. The next few weeks will show whether they can wrestle enough control from the military to start building a more hopeful future.

Is Winter Coming to the EU?
Mark Leonard (Project Syndicate) Apr 23, 2019
Many observers expect a grand showdown between the forces of “open” and “closed” societies in next month's European Parliament elections, with the very future of the European Union at stake. They are right to be worried, but wrong about the reason.

Tariffs and politics
Thiemo Fetzer and Carlo Schwarz (VoxEU) Apr 23, 2019
Tariff retaliation is widely believed to be politically motivated. This column presents evidence that retaliation against the Trump administration's tariff hikes seems to be systematically targeted against the Republican voter base. China appears to have been able to achieve a high degree of political targeting but likely harmed its own economy by targeting agricultural goods for which the US is a major supplier. The EU, on the other hand, appears to be more successful in navigating the trade-off. It also finds some evidence suggesting that Republican candidates fared worse in the mid-term elections in the US counties most exposed to retaliation.

Technology diffusion in the medium-term cycle of advanced economies
Mónica Correa-López and Beatriz de Blas (VoxEU) Apr 23, 2019
Since the end of WWII, advanced economies have experienced long-lasting swings in economic activity. This column takes a look at the historical data and finds that, over the medium term, output and investment fluctuations among European countries have been even more volatile and persistent than in the US. It also reveals that, by diffusing embodied technology through trade inintermediates, large US firms appear to drive Europe's output over the medium term.

This Banking Fraud Shows How Shady China’s Economy Remains
Matthew Lowenstein (FP) Apr 23, 2019
One tiny corner of the banking system—the market for banker’s acceptance drafts—demonstrates that China’s financial system is still riddled with shadow banking.

The age of the elected despot is here
Martin Wolf (FT) Apr 24, 2019
People want to believe a powerful and charismatic leader is on their side in an unjust world.

America’s dollar privilege is not exactly exorbitant
John Plender (FT) Apr 24, 2019
Generous yields on US Treasuries undermine critics of greenback’s reserve currency role.

European banks should stop waiting for deliverance
Martin Arnold (FT) Apr 24, 2019
As results season looms, excuses for lagging behind US rivals are wearing thin.

Even a deal on trade won’t paper over the widening gap between Washington and Beijing
Kevin Rudd (WP) Apr 24, 2019
Too many forces are driving the United States and China apart.

Egypt’s economy thrills investors, but locals are struggling
Economist Apr 24, 2019
The government’s reforms are causing pain at home.

Game of loans and the New Silk Roads
Gordon Watts (AT) Apr 24, 2019
Debt and transparency cast a shadow over the Second Belt and Road Forum in Beijing.

Belt and Road Initiative: Two Key Channels to Achieving Financial Connectivity
Christine Lagarde (IMF) Apr 24, 2019
In our modern context, there are several important channels to achieving this greater financial connectivity. I want to highlight two today: increased capital mobility and increased financial inclusion.

Uncertainty over Auto Tariffs May Not End Soon
Jérémie Cohen-Setton (PIIE) Apr 24, 2019
The Trump administration’s tariffs on steel and aluminum in 2018 marked the first time since 1986 that national security has been invoked as grounds for trade protection. Since then, the administration has launched three additional investigations, using the same law, Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, to determine whether imports of automobiles, uranium, and titanium sponge imports threaten national security. Although other countries have already brought challenges before the World Trade Organization over the United States’ extensive use of the national security exception, the issue will not be settled soon and has generated fears that others will imitate the US example.

Will a US-China Trade Deal Remove or Just Restructure the Massive 2018 Tariffs?
Chad P. Bown, Eva (Yiwen) Zhang (PIIE) Apr 25, 2019
After spending 2018 imposing tariffs on over $360 billion of each other’s trade, the United States and China are now negotiating how to resolve President Donald Trump’s trade war.

Economic geography bites back
Indermit Gill (Brookings) Apr 24, 2019
Ten years ago, Paul Krugman won the Nobel Prize in Economics, and the World Bank published the World Development Report “Reshaping Economic Geography.” There is never a bad time to win a Nobel Prize, but 2009 might have been the worst year to launch a report on economic geography. It was hard to get people to think about long-term transformations amid the global financial crisis.

Trade Risks That Could Rattle Markets: NAFTA Withdrawal, Auto Tariffs
Libby Cantrill (PIMCO) Apr 24, 2019
While we believe that optimism regarding an evolving and eventual trade deal between the U.S. and China is well-placed, we would caution investors against growing complacent about trade policy risk more broadly.

Africa’s Only Hope Is Industrialization
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Apr 24, 2019
The continent has a chance to pick up some of the manufacturing leaving higher-cost Asia.

The Real Crisis Risk at the ECB
Ferdinando Giugliano (Bloomberg View) Apr 24, 2019
The central bank has plenty of tools left to tackle a European slump, but will Mario Draghi’s replacement be as willing to wield them?

The California Economy Isn’t Just a U.S. Powerhouse
Matthew A Winkler (Bloomberg View) Apr 24, 2019
There are good reasons why one American state leaves big countries like France and Italy in the rearview mirror and overtook the U.K. last year.

There’s a Lot to Like About Stocks at Record Highs
Charles Lieberman (Bloomberg View) Apr 24, 2019
As long as the economy is healthy, profits keep growing, and inflation and interest rates remain in check, the bull market should continue.

Soak the Boomers to Save Capitalism
Karl W Smith (Bloomberg View) Apr 24, 2019
The intergenerational transfer of wealth is underway. The only question is how the government will manage it.

What If the Bull Market Just Never Ends?
Mark Gongloff (Bloomberg View) Apr 24, 2019
It’s not obvious what will stop the longest run in history.

Why Asia’s Central Banks Can’t Pull the Trigger
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg View) Apr 24, 2019
Unlike their Western counterparts, they've got ammunition to fight the next downturn. But they're leery of using it.

Trump Can’t Easily Break the Fed
William C Dudley (Bloomberg View) Apr 24, 2019
The central bank can survive a couple politicized appointments.

Britain's Embrace of Huawei Is Really About Brexit
Alex Webb (Bloomberg View) Apr 24, 2019
The divorce from Europe is on its way, so Britain is under greater pressure to keep China as a trading partner.

Do Innovation Subsidies Make Chinese Firms More Innovative?
Hong Cheng, Hanbing Fan, Takeo Hoshi and Dezhuang Hu (VoxChina) Apr 24, 2019
The Chinese government has been using various subsidies to encourage innovations by Chinese firms. We examine the allocation and impacts of innovation subsidies, using the data from the China Employer Employee Survey (CEES). We find that the innovation subsidies are preferentially allocated to state-owned firms and politically connected firms. Of these two (state ownership and political connection), political connection is more important in determining the allocation. We also find that the firms that receive innovation subsidies file and receive more patents, are more likely to introduce new products, but do not necessarily file and receive more patents abroad. Finally, the firms that receive innovation subsidies do not have higher productivity, more profits, or larger market shares. Overall, the results point to inefficiency in the allocation of innovation subsidies and show that the subsidies encourage only incremental innovations and not fundamental ones.

Can democracy help with inequality?
Daron Acemoglu, Suresh Naidu, Pascual Restrepo and James Robinson (VoxDev) Apr 24, 2019
While democracy does represent a real shift in political power away from elites, its impact on inequality may be more limited than one might expect.

Britain Can’t Afford to Keep Talking About Brexit
Tej Parikh (FP) Apr 24, 2019
So long as Britain is still talking about Brexit, it is not talking about everything else that requires its attention, and that includes the country’s stalled economic policy.

Next BoE governor will need exceptional skills
FT View Apr 25, 2019
Mark Carney’s successor must grapple with Brexit aftermath and political meddling.

Why China’s unicorns may not trot happily to market
Henny Sender (FT) Apr 25, 2019
Wary investors and regulators could thwart giants’ plans to sell shares this year.

Iran left with few choices as Trump steps up pressure
Edward Luce (FT) Apr 25, 2019
US president’s decision to revoke oil sanctions waivers could push Tehran to war.

China should make BRI more transparent and predictable
James Crabtree (FT) Apr 25, 2019
Global infrastructure project must move beyond mish-mash of opaque bilateral deals.

Even US anglophiles warn the UK over trade talks
Chris Giles (FT) Apr 25, 2019
Dealing with an administration bent on selling any deal as ‘America first’ will be brutal.

Central banks take up the climate change challenge
Gillian Tett (FT) Apr 25, 2019
Slowly, they are recognising that global warming is a financial stability risk.

Can wage growth upset the US market rally?
Laurence Fletcher (FT) Apr 25, 2019
Extent to which the tight labour market will feed through into CPI is hotly debated.

The dangerous allure of a fudged Brexit
Philip Stephens (FT) Apr 25, 2019
An assumption that anything is better than the present shambles ignores the nature of the problem.

The fiscal turn: America learns to love budget deficits
Sam Fleming and Chris Giles (FT) Apr 25, 2019
The trend towards looser fiscal policy could mark the biggest shift in economic thinking in a generation.

Argentine assets hit as populist fears re-emerge
Benedict Mander, Richard Henderson and Colby Smith (FT) Apr 25, 2019
Debt, stocks and currency knocked as investors take flight on economic upheaval concerns.

The United States and Europe, divided by China
Sebastian Mallaby (WP) Apr 25, 2019
This Western rift over China needs to be fixed urgently.

China tries to calm jitters about the “Belt and Road” initiative
Economist Apr 25, 2019
Though belt-and-road lending is worrisome, it is not malevolent. The real problem is overreach.

The critical frontier: Reducing emissions from China’s Belt and Road
Simon Zadek (Brookings) Apr 25, 2019
While every energy-saving bulb makes a difference, there are only a small number of existential frontiers in our efforts to deal with climate change. Of these, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), involving over 70 countries from Central Asia to Latin America, has been dangerously ignored.

Life after the multilateral trading system
Uri Dadush and Guntram B. Wolff (Bruegel) Apr 25, 2019
Considering a world absent a multilateral trading system is not to promote such an outcome, but to encourage all to prepare for the worst and instil greater clarity in the mind of policymakers as to what happens if compromise fails.

US-EU Trade Talks: Two Giants at Loggerheads
Holger Schmieding (Globalist) Apr 25, 2019
Look for significant noise, but not for a genuine trade war across the Atlantic.

Restoring Trust Through Fiscal Policy
Mitsuhiro Furusawa (IMF) Apr 25, 2019
I would like to share a few thoughts on two areas where effective tax policy and administration can help restore trust in public institutions: corruption and international taxation.

A Slimmer Belt and Road Is Even Scarier
Andrew Small (Bloomberg View) Apr 25, 2019
Switching the focus from roads and bridges to digital infrastructure will only further entrench China’s influence in host countries.

India’s Secret Stimulus Is a Bad Sign
Andy Mukherjee (Bloomberg View) Apr 25, 2019
If the economy is doing so well, why is the central bank opening the floodgates to liquidity?

Argentina Sell-Off Risks Dragging Down Emerging Markets
Mohamed Aly El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Apr 25, 2019
Central bank policies are propping up values. At some point, investors will start insisting on economic progress.

Why China Will Rival the U.S. in High Tech
Dan Wang (Bloomberg View) Apr 25, 2019
Critics who say bureaucracy and rote education stifle innovation are missing the biggest factor in the mainland’s favor: its huge market.

Why China Can’t Pull Up the World
Anjani Trivedi (Bloomberg View) Apr 25, 2019
Beijing’s stimulus has been targeted and domestically focused. That means it won’t do much to boost growth elsewhere.

The Power of China’s Urban Clusters
Andrew Sheng and Xiao Geng (Project Syndicate) Apr 25, 2019
The “Chinese Dream” of national rejuvenation touted by President Xi Jinping is not, as some in the West seem to think, about world domination. Instead, China has advanced a vision of inclusive, sustainable economic growth – and its leaders are doing what it takes to translate that vision into reality.

The global macroeconomics of a trade war
Wilko Bolt, Kostas Mavromatis and Sweder Van Wijnbergen (VoxEU) Apr 25, 2019
Increasing protectionism will slow down world trade and may dampen global economic growth. This column examines the global macroeconomic consequences of a major trade conflict between the US and China, and shows that the two countries would be the biggest losers from a 10% ‘tit-for-tat’ trade war between them. As long as it does not get involved in the conflict, the euro area may temporally gain from trade diversion, as competitiveness improves and imports from regions whose exports are blocked elsewhere become cheaper.

‘The Next Backlash Is Going to Be Against Technology’
Keith Johnson (FP) Apr 25, 2019
Harvard economist Dani Rodrik on how to make globalization fair and sustainable.

China’s Debt Diplomacy
Mark Green (FP) Apr 25, 2019
The loans offered by China through the Belt and Road Initiative are saddling developing countries with unsustainable levels of debt.

The old world’s business virtues are underrated
FT View Apr 26, 2019
European industry is right to shake off its inferiority complex.

Welcome to the liberal buffet
Yuval Noah Harari (FT) Apr 26, 2019
Free markets, free trade and personal freedoms no longer come as a packaged deal.

An inglorious period in Japan stocks is ending
Leo Lewis (FT) Apr 26, 2019
During ‘Heisei’ imperial era the market never came close to recapturing 1989 highs.

Argentine peso tumbles further as political angst rises
Colby Smith, Joe Rennison and Mamta Badkar (FT) Apr 26, 2019
Bonds also keep falling as Mauricio Macri struggles to contain economic malaise.

Rise of the renminbi is ‘story of the next cycle’
Steve Johnson (FT) Apr 26, 2019
Demonisation of the likes of Iran could help propel Chinese currency’s rise.

How to meet the challenge of China
Geoffrey Owen (FT) Apr 26, 2019
Western governments should think twice before trying to keep Chinese companies out.

A Japanese Gift for Trump
WSJ Apr 26, 2019
Prime Minister Abe and the U.S. President need each other on trade.

A fresh probe raises fears of systemic problems in the cryptocurrency market
Economist Apr 26, 2019
Trust in one of the most-traded virtual currencies slips after an alleged $850m loss in deposits.

A Tale of Three Cycles
Joachim Fels (PIMCO) Apr 26, 2019
There are three main macro factors for markets – the business cycle, the liquidity cycle, and the political cycle.

BRI 2.0: Stronger Frameworks in the New Phase of Belt and Road
Christine Lagarde (IMF) Apr 26, 2019
Today, as we prepare ourselves for this new phase — or what I like to call “BRI 2.0” — it seems fitting to first review where we have been. And then, together, consider the lessons learned for achieving greater balance moving forward.

Three Reasons for Hope for US-EU Trade
Holger Schmieding (Globalist) Apr 26, 2019
Despite Trump’s apparent obsession with German cars and the German trade surplus, political support in the U.S. for a trade war against the EU is much weaker than for getting tough on China.

Central Banks Have Broken Capitalism
Alberto Gallo (Bloomberg View) Apr 26, 2019
While many agree that current monetary policies are not sustainable, few have offered realistic alternatives. Here are three.

Brexit's Financial Turf War Enters A New Phase
Lionel Laurent (Bloomberg View) Apr 26, 2019
Don't count on the delay to Britain’s departure making life any easier for the City of London as it prepares for a new regulatory reality.

America’s False Narrative on China
Stephen S. Roach (Project Syndicate) Apr 26, 2019
Washington has been loose with facts, analysis, and conclusions about China, and the American public has been far too gullible in its acceptance of this false narrative. The point is not to deny China’s role in promoting economic tensions, but to stress the need for objectivity and honesty in assigning blame – especially with so much at stake in the current conflict.

Where Do Good Jobs Come From?
Daron Acemoglu (Project Syndicate) Apr 26, 2019
Many regard the falloff in the creation of high-wage jobs as the inevitable result of advances in artificial intelligence and robotics. It isn’t. Technology can be used either to displace labor or to enhance worker productivity.

An Agenda for Europe’s Next Decade
Jan Peter Balkenende (Project Syndicate) Apr 26, 2019
The EU cannot afford another decade of crisis management and indecision. Instead, it must build a sustainable future on four pillars: an ambitious agenda, a focus on results, reform of EU institutions, and a renewed emphasis on European values.

The effectiveness of the global financial safety net depends on the tools and shocks
Beatrice Scheubel, Livio Stracca and Cédric Tille (VoxEU) Apr 26, 2019
More than ten years on from the start of the Global Crisis, policymakers are discussing the effectiveness of the global financial safety net – the combination of reserves, central bank swap lines, regional financial arrangements, and the IMF. This column evaluates the effectiveness of the use of IMF support and foreign reserves in globally driven crises. It finds that actual use of IMF support helps during currency crises – the type of crisis for which the support was originally designed. Use of reserves is of limited effectiveness and only during sudden stops.

Monetary policy in a world of cryptocurrencies
Pierpaolo Benigno (VoxEU) Apr 26, 2019
Cryptocurrencies have attracted the attention of consumers, policymakers and the media. This column investigates whether they can jeopardise the primary function of central banks, namely, controlling inflation and economic activity. Currency competition can succeed in calming inflation and preventing the sort of manipulation of interest rates and prices to which governments have historically been prone. But currency competition may also lead to government money losing the function of medium of exchange, which could be risky and lead government currency into further troubles.

Do robots threaten North-South trade and welfare?
Erhan Artuc, Paulo Bastos & Bob Rijkers (VoxDev) Apr 26, 2019
Robotisation can catalyse trade and improve welfare, but policies are required to ensure automation-induced growth is inclusive.

China Gets a British Bedfellow
Keith Johnson (FP) Apr 26, 2019
Plagued by economic uncertainty over Brexit, Britain has begun getting on board with China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

Low volatility is masking investors’ anxiety
Michael Mackenzie (FT) Apr 27, 2019
A stronger dollar would present a challenge, not least for US companies’ offshore revenues.

Bankers: the only big winners from the IPO boom
Nicole Bullock (FT) Apr 27, 2019
Fees for underwriting public offerings such as Uber and Pinterest remain high.

Japan Enters a New Imperial Era
Tom Clifford (Globalist) Apr 27, 2019
Japan enters an era of “beautiful harmony” as a new emperor ascends to the throne on April 30. But beneath the surface is a rising militarism.

Can Capitalism Beat Climate Change?
Adair Turner (Project Syndicate) Apr 27, 2019
Only clear targets can transform rational self-interest from a potentially catastrophic force into a powerful driver of beneficial change. Once investors know that the non-negotiable end point is zero carbon in 2050, they will desert any company whose plans are incompatible with that objective.

Moore Problems for the Fed?
Jeffrey Frankel (Project Syndicate) Apr 27, 2019
US President Donald Trump’s intended nominee for the US Federal Reserve Board, Stephen Moore, may end up doing whatever Trump wants, instead of what is best for the economy. Moore’s views on the Fed’s interest-rate policy, and his support for returning America to a gold standard, are disturbing.

The economic failure of Britain’s Empire Marketing Board
David M. Higgins and Brian Varian (VoxEU) Apr 27, 2019
In the late 1920s and early 1930s, Britain tried to reorient its trade towards the Empire via an advertising campaign led by the Empire Marketing Board. As this column shows, in economic terms, the initiative was a complete failure, producing no increase in the Empire’s share of Britain’s imports. Imperial sentiment conflicted with economic reality: Britain was the biggest global importer of produce from the late 19th century to the interwar period, and the EMB’s activities were constrained by entrenched consumer preferences for non-Empire foodstuffs, such as Argentine beef and Danish butter.

China, the US and trade in a dog-eat-dog world
Edward Luce (FT) Apr 28, 2019
An agreement between the world’s two biggest economies would sideline the WTO.

The unbreakable, unsustainable eurozone
Wolfgang Münchau (FT) Apr 28, 2019
Without an ECB to do the heavy lifting in the next crisis, real reform will be needed.

Trump’s Tariffs End or His Trade Deal Dies
Chuck Grassley (WSJ) Apr 28, 2019
Congress won’t approve USMCA while constituents pay the price for Mexican and Canadian retaliation.

No, robots are not coming for your jobs
Robert Samuelson (WP) Apr 28, 2019
Cheer up. Innovation creates employment, too.

Japan’s Reiwa era may be less than harmonious
Noriko Kawamura (EAF) Apr 28, 2019
When Emperor Akihito ascended the throne in 1989 he set about modernising the monarchy and broke with archaic Imperial House tradition.

Can Japan Be Great Again?
Shihoko Goto (Globalist) Apr 28, 2019
Shinzo Abe will have a hard time to make his vision of a Japan as the biggest Asian power a reality.

How Giants Fall in China
Shuli Ren (Bloomberg View) Apr 28, 2019
Government favor can help private companies swell to gargantuan size quickly, but those debts will eventually have to be paid.

Questions Will Hang Over a No-Drama Fed Meeting
Mohamed Aly El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Apr 28, 2019
Don’t expect surging GDP to turn doves into hawks this week. But troubling economic signals can’t be ignored forever.

Revisiting the causal effect of democracy on long-run development
Markus Eberhardt (VoxEU) Apr 28, 2019
Recent evidence suggests that a country switching to democracy achieves about 20% higher per capita GDP over subsequent decades. This column demonstrates the sensitivity of these findings to sample selection and presents an implementation which generalises the empirical approach. If we assume that the democracy–growth nexus can differ across countries and may be distorted by common shocks or network effects, the average long-run effect of democracy falls to 10%.

Geography, competition, and optimal multilateral trade policy
Antonella Nocco, Gianmarco Ottaviano and Matteo Salto (VoxEU) Apr 28, 2019
Multilateralism in trade is currently under attack. Countries that used to be its most fervent supporters seem dissatisfied with its outcomes and think that they would be better off breaking multilateral agreements. At the same time, faced with the exorbitant market power of giant corporations, governments are increasingly active in unilateral protectionist policies. This column argues that while rising firm market power may weaken the argument in favour of laissez faire, it nonetheless reinforces the case for multilateral policy cooperation.

The global risks of a US-China deal
Neena Shenai (FT) Apr 29, 2019
The US should lead a return to a rules-based framework rather than grab the easy option.

China renegotiated $50bn in loans to developing countries
Tom Hancock (FT) Apr 29, 2019
Study challenges ‘debt-trap’ narrative surrounding Beijing’s lending.

What you need to know about modern monetary theory
Gavyn Davies (FT) Apr 29, 2019
MMT does not win much respect from economists, but investors should pay attention.

Trump can deliver Britain a post-Brexit trade boost
Michael Auslin (FT) Apr 29, 2019
A trilateral deal between the US, UK and Japan would counter fears of isolation.

After the election, Spain needs political and economic reform
Miriam González Durántez (FT) Apr 29, 2019
Unemployment is stuck at around 14 per cent and the education system is failing.

Don’t Let Trump Mess With the Fed
Steven Rattner (NYT) Apr 29, 2019
Steady leadership at the Federal Reserve is keeping the economy on track.

Free trade and WTO face tests on many fronts
Andrew Salmon (AT) Apr 29, 2019
As world moves toward managed trade, Japan is emerging as Asia-Pacific's free trade's unlikely champ.

The New Silk Roads reach the next level
Pepe Escobar (AT) Apr 29, 2019
The Beijing leadership seems to be aware that transparency is key for the global success of BRI, which is now supported by over 120 states and territories.

Is China Really Becoming a Current Account Deficit Country? (Part 1 of 2)
Houze Song (Marco Polo) Apr 29, 2019
Why a collapse of domestic investment is unlikely and therefore will have little impact on the trade balance.

The Economic Outlook of the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan in Five Charts
IMF Apr 29, 2019
In the best of times, countries in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) region would face a formidable task of creating jobs for the millions of young people entering the workforce. Now, they must tackle this challenge amid a slowing global economy, volatile oil prices, and uncertainty around trade tensions.

Five Things to Know About the Economic Outlook in the Caucasus and Central Asia
IMF Apr 29, 2019
While growth is stable, countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) face an array of longstanding challenges that, if unaddressed, threaten to hold back the region from reaching its potential.

Trump Can Do a Lot More to Help Manufacturing
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Apr 29, 2019
Spending on infrastructure and education is better than tariffs and trade wars.

Libor Is Both Alive and Dead
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Apr 29, 2019
The much-derided financial benchmark is supposed to die in 2021. But issuers seem to believe it will survive beyond that date.

The Fed Might Have Drawn Markets Into a ‘Dove Trap’
Timothy A Duy (Bloomberg View) Apr 29, 2019
Three scenarios show how bets on interest rates staying the same or even being cut this year can easily turn bad.

The Fed Should Embrace the Power of Straight Talk
Karl W Smith (Bloomberg View) Apr 29, 2019
Setting a smooth spending target would increase the bank’s power to stop the next recession.

A Wake-Up Call for the Perfect Economy?
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg View) Apr 29, 2019
Australia’s central bank never bought the hype, and may be about to acknowledge brewing trouble by cutting rates.

High Tax States Are a Sign of Inefficiency
Gary Shilling (Bloomberg View) Apr 29, 2019
It’s the government equivalent of a private sector firm raising prices when its products are already overpriced.

Goldilocks Growth
Anatole Kaletsky (Project Syndicate) Apr 29, 2019
Sooner or later, some political shock will disrupt the current happy balance of robust global growth and low inflation, as US President Donald Trump’s trade wars and oil sanctions almost did last year. But until such a shock actually happens, investors can sit back and enjoy their porridge just the way they like it.

Balancing Growth and Structural Adjustment in China
Yu Yongding (Project Syndicate) Apr 29, 2019
Fiscal and monetary expansion may be out of fashion among China’s mainstream economists, who insist that structural adjustment must be the priority. But it could go a long way toward bolstering China’s economic performance in 2019, without impeding structural reform.

My Best Growth Forecast Ever
Robert J. Barro (Project Syndicate) Apr 29, 2019
The Trump administration's tax reform of 2017, which took effect in 2018, was viewed prospectively, and now retrospectively, as a contributor to US economic growth. But there was – and remains – a great deal of controversy over the size of the macroeconomic effects of the tax changes.

When Facts Change, Change the Pact
Jean Pisani-Ferry (Project Syndicate) Apr 29, 2019
“When facts change, I change my mind,” John Maynard Keynes famously said. With long-term interest rates currently near zero, the European Union should reform its fiscal framework to allow member states to increase their debt-financed public investments.

Making sanctions bite: The EU–Russian sanctions of 2014
Matej Belín and Jan Hanousek (VoxEU) Apr 29, 2019
The annexation of the Crimean peninsula by the Russian Federation in 2014 led to sanctions by the US and the EU, among others, and counter-sanctions by Russia. This column estimates that the value of trade lost due to Western sanctions over 2014-2016 amounts to $1.3 billion, while trade lost due to the Russian counter-sanctions amounts to $10.5 billion. There appears to be no evidence that Russian importers switched between suppliers from sanctioning countries to competitors from non-sanctioning countries.

Why investors keep coming back to Argentina
Colby Smith (FT) Apr 30, 2019
In the long-run, the risk tends to be worth it.

Tories drawing the wrong lesson from Brexit party
Robert Shrimsley (FT) Apr 30, 2019
Brexit is no longer a policy — it is a religion and selection is by faith alone.

Investment alone cannot save distressed communities
Raghuram Rajan (FT) Apr 30, 2019
Policies for reviving such places have to dovetail with the interests of residents.

China developers’ dollar debt spooks investors
Don Weinland and Sherry Fei Ju (FT) Apr 30, 2019
Mounting US bond issuance and risk of wider market downturn bring pressure to deleverage.

ECB should build links with capitals to combat meddling
Claire Jones (FT) Apr 30, 2019
Central bankers under pressure from politicians who do not understand their role.

Trump is taking a risky bet that oil prices will remain stable
Robert McNally (FT) Apr 30, 2019
Singular supply offsets do not guarantee stable prices in a market with many moving parts.

The Fed’s Patience Isn’t a Virtue
Narayana Kocherlakota (Bloomberg View) Apr 30, 2019
The central bank should seek to stabilize the economy, not interest rates.

White House’s Threat on Nafta Gives Democrats an Easy Out
Jonathan Bernstein (Bloomberg View) Apr 30, 2019
If Trump’s replacement for the trade deal fails, the existing agreement could remain in place. Which is what many in both parties wanted anyway.

Historic Stock Rally Favors Bears More Than Bulls
Nir Kaissar (Bloomberg View) Apr 30, 2019
Earnings volatility and lofty valuations argue against long-term hefty returns.

Europe’s Bank Defenses Look Like Swiss Cheese
Lionel Laurent (Bloomberg View) Apr 30, 2019
The turf war between Brussels and national governments over the policing of money laundering isn’t going to help clean up the finance system.

The Fed Should Dump Its Interest-Rate Target
William C Dudley (Bloomberg View) Apr 30, 2019
The federal funds rate has outlived its usefulness.

Turkey Can’t Just Wish Away Its Currency Problems
Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg View) Apr 30, 2019
Investors are still in the dark about what’s going on with the country’s foreign exchange holdings. We need a more detailed explanation.

The Coming Technological Cold War
Manuel Muñiz (Project Syndicate) Apr 30, 2019
The conflict between the United States and China over trade and technology is an increasingly high-stakes zero-sum affair. And it is not just about amassing data and talent to achieve economic and geostrategic primacy; like the original Cold War, it is also about the future of liberal democracy.

Import competition, family firms, and productivity
Cheng Chen and Claudia Steinwender (VoxEU) Apr 30, 2019
Firms around the world are facing increased import competition, especially from low-wage countries like China, but the effect on the productivity of impacted firms remains unclear. Using data from Spain, this column studies how firms under different types of management respond to an increase in competition, and shows that less-productive firms that are both family owned and managed see the greatest improvement in productivity. Their managers care more about the long-term survival of their firm, prompting additional effort when faced with an increased bankruptcy risk.

Cliches Can Kill in Congo
Christoph Vogel, Gillian Mathys, Judith Verweijen, Adia Benton, Rachel Sweet, and Esther Marijnen (FP) Apr 30, 2019
The idea that minerals mined for use in cell phones are a major driver of violence in Congo is a pervasive and damaging myth.

Unlocking the economic potential of Central America and the Caribbean
Andres Cadena, Julio Giraut, Nicolas Grosman, and Andre de Oliveira Vaz (McKinsey) Apr 31, 2019
The region has seen rapid growth over the past 15 years, but a number of trends could affect whether the economies continue to grow.