News & Commentary:

Articles/Commentary

US stock market rally confuses liquidity with solvency
Gillian Tett (FT) May 1, 2020
Many zombie companies will fail, no matter how much is sprayed around by the Fed.

The US should have few problems selling debt to 'insatiable' market
Colby Smith (FT) May 1, 2020
Nerves over recovery and vast Fed support are likely to ensure low borrowing rates.

Why the coronavirus crisis won't mark a peak in oil demand
Cuneyt Kazokoglu (FT) May 1, 2020
Transport demand will rebound while the pandemic will reboot the use of plastics.

The week business waved goodbye to the V-shape recovery
Tom Braithwaite (FT) May 1, 2020
Forget the mini-boom in stocks — the corporate mood is souring.

Capitalism is not to blame, it's our escape route
Robert Colvile (FT) May 1, 2020
This coronavirus crisis has things to teach us. We have clearly optimised the economy for efficiency rather than resilience.

The U.S. Would Benefit From a Sovereign Wealth Fund
Nir Kaissar (Bloomberg View) May 1, 2020
A national investment portfolio would ease two persistent problems highlighted by the coronavirus pandemic.

U.S. Economy Poised to Mirror the Post-WWII Glory
Aaron Brown (Bloomberg View) May 1, 2020
Lockdown rules act like wartime rationing to curb civilian consumption. But when things open up, so do wallets.

Coronavirus Recession Ends the Golden Age for Tech Workers
Conor Sen (Bloomberg View) May 1, 2020
Cost-cutting will take precedence over gaining market share and profitless growth.

The Populists' Pandemic
Andrés Velasco (Project Syndicate) May 1, 2020
Because populist leaders of both the right and left have topped the ranks of incompetence during the pandemic, it has become common to claim that they will soon become its political victims. Alas, this may be wishful thinking.

How to Avoid a W-Shaped Recession
Jeffrey Frankel (Project Syndicate) May 1, 2020
As policymakers plan their COVID-19 responses, policymakers should remember a simple rule of thumb: let "W" stand for premature "withdrawal" of public-health or economic-stimulus measures. As previous crises have shown, such proposals should be avoided like the plague.

A Pledge for Africa
Abiy Ahmed (Project Syndicate) May 1, 2020
In 34 of Sub-Saharan Africa's 45 countries, annual per capita health spending is below $200, and measures like lockdowns, stay-at-home orders, and even frequent handwashing to combat COVID-19 are nearly impossible to implement. This simple fact underscores the urgent need for the Global Health Pledging Conference on May 4.

How Will the Great Cessation End?
Todd G. Buchholz (Project Syndicate) May 1, 2020
The United States' rapid economic rebound after World War II resulted initially from deregulation, corporate-tax cuts, and a more flexible business environment. Similar measures now will help the US economy to emerge more smoothly and strongly from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Price discrimination in export markets and the quality of traded goods
Natalie Chen and Luciana Juvenal (VoxEU) May 1, 2020
Does price discrimination of exporters depend on trade costs and/or product quality? Using firm-level data, this column investigates how exporters adjust their markups across destinations depending on trade costs – such as tariffs and bilateral distance – and the quality of their exports. The theoretical and empirical evidence shows that exporters raise markups in more distant markets but lower them in countries with higher tariffs. However, the response of markups to changes in trade costs is heterogeneous and smaller in magnitude for higher quality exports.

International spillovers of quantitative easing
Marcin Kolasa and Grzegorz Wesolowski (VoxEU) May 1, 2020
Several major central banks announced new rounds of massive asset purchases following the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic. This policy instrument seems to have performed well for economies that have been implementing it since the Global Crisis, but its spillover impact on external countries has remained a bone of contention within the policy debate. Using previous episodes of quantitative easing as a guideline, this column analyses its international spillovers, showing that they are qualitatively and quantitatively different from the impact of changing short-term rates by the major central banks.

To protect public health, preserve the global value chains
Anna Stellinger, Henrik Isakson, and Ingrid Berglund (VoxEU) May 1, 2020
The world is in the midst of a dual crisis, threatening both the health of millions of people and the world economy. The crisis also touches upon various aspects of trade policy. Once the immidiate crisis has abated it is not unlikely that the major trade debate will be about reshoring production. The argument goes that it is dangerous – both from an economic point of view and from a public health perspective – to be so dependent on imports. This column argues that the opposite is in fact true.

The Coronavirus Is Creating a Crisis on Europe's Borders
Sinan Ulgen (FP) May 1, 2020
European countries have suffered from the pandemic, but their southern and eastern neighbors are faring even worse—setting the stage for financial ruin, political instability, and a surge of refugees.

Markets are out of step with economic reality
FT View May 2, 2020
Investors are looking to the future, but should beware of over-optimism.

Which emerging markets are in most financial peril?
Economist May 2, 2020
Our ranking of 66 countries shows which are in distress, and which are relatively safe.

The economic risk from COVID-19 is not where COVID-19 is
Ilan Noy, Nguyen Doan, Benno Ferrarini, and Donghyun Park (VoxEU) May 2, 2020
The economic risk of an epidemic is distinct from its health risk. In the case of COVID-19, financial and institutional capacity are key determinants of an economy's resilience to the shock. This column assesses the economic risks associated with the coronavirus pandemic across the world. The evidence shows that economic risks are especially high in Africa, Iran, South and Southeast Asia. Although healthcare systems are better equipped to handle the crisis than in previous pandemics, the globalisation of trade and labour flows will likely amplify the risks to the global economy.

Skill accumulation and mass education in Africa and Asia
Ewout Frankema and Marlous van Waijenburg (VoxEU) May 2, 2020
Despite a clear positive relationship between education and income at the micro-level, raising educational attainment rates in the developing world have so far failed to lead to substantial and sustained economic growth. This column collects data on skill premia for 50 African and Asian countries for 1870-2010 and presents evidence of a dramatic fall in skill premia from initially very high levels for both Asia and Africa over the course of the 20th century. This convergence of skill premia to Western levels is shown to be negatively related to the relative supply of educated workers in those economies.

Demand fall offers glimpse into oil industry's future
David Sheppard (FT) May 3, 2020
Price wars and coronavirus have disrupted the sector, possibly moving peak demand even closer.

Can governments afford the debts piling up to stabilise economies?
Stephanie Kelton and Edward Chancellor (FT) May 3, 2020
Two experts debate the long-term impact on inflation of the Covid-19 rescue packages.

Central bankers open up the pandemic box
Andrew Sheng (EAF) May , 2020
Central bankers can no longer pretend that they are apolitical independent institutions. They wield a tool that can make or destroy the social fabric. It is time to have a serious conversation about the post-pandemic social contract that must include the role of central banks.

How bad is COVID-19's impact on Asian developing economies?
David Dapice (EAF) May 3, 2020
The bottom line is that there is limited fiscal space, or ability to spend much more, to respond to emergencies like this virus. Developing countries do not have the same deep and liquid bond markets that rich countries do, so they often have to issue bonds in foreign currencies, especially if bond issuance exceeds the ability of local bond buyers to absorb the new debt.

In many ways, stockmarkets have been extraordinary in 2020
Economist May 3, 2020
How this year's crash differs from bear markets of the past.

Oil's Recovery Could Take Decades, Not Years
Julian Lee (Bloomberg View) May 3, 2020
Or the industry might never fully rebound from the virus, leaving massive spare capacity all along the supply chain.

How to help the poorest through the lockdowns
FT View May 4, 2020
Near-unconditional cash transfers are the most efficient form of relief.

Bankrupt Lebanon's turn to IMF is overdue
FT View May 4, 2020
A bailout is the Mediterranean country's only option to refloat its sinking economy.

The ECB can ease Italian debt worries without risking inflation
Carlo Cottarelli (FT) May 4, 2020
The case for reversing QE is far from obvious, even if prices did start to climb.

Algorithmic economics may help Covid-19 recovery
John Thornhill (FT) May 4, 2020
Machine learning applied to economic modelling aims to generate novel insights for policymakers.

The business world can never go back to the way things were
Michael Moritz (FT) May 4, 2020
The global plague has turbocharged the growth of the internet, catapulting us into the future.

China squeezes debt repayments from virus-hit nations
Gordon Watts (AT) May 4, 2020
Interest rates on Belt and Road project loans can be up to '6% for poor countries struggling' with Covid-19

China's weak social safety net will dampen its economic recovery
Nicholas R. Lardy and Tianlei Huang (PIIE) May 4, 2020
China's domestic institutions, notably its weak social safety net, are not up to the task of supporting private consumption, which is critically important for its economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.

W(h)ither U.S. Crude Oil Production?
Matthew Higgins and Thomas Klitgaard (FRBNY Liberty St Econ) May 4, 2020
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a marked decline in nonessential travel, and industrial activity is also off sharply. These forces are translating into an unprecedented collapse in global oil demand. The nature of the decline means that demand is unlikely to respond to the steep drop in oil prices, so supply will have to fall in tandem. The authors examine the circumstances facing U.S. oil producers that may have to bear the brunt of the global supply adjustment needed over the near term.

The ABCs of the post-COVID economic recovery
Louise Sheiner and Kadija Yilla (Brookings) May 4, 2020
At the beginning of the COVID-related economic decline, analysts were predicting a "V-shaped" recovery. Now economists are theorizing a wide-range of potential recovery shapes: Z-shaped, V-shaped, U-shaped, W-shaped, L-shaped, and even the Nike Swoosh.

People in India, Japan Are the Most Nervous About Reopening
Ben Schott (Bloomberg View) May 4, 2020
Germans and Italians report the least anxiety about coronavirus lockdowns ending.

There's No Escaping the Slump Even for Virus Stars
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg View) May 4, 2020
South Korea has gained scant economic reward for its successful containment effort. Other trade-dependent nations should take note.

Mend the Disconnect Between Wall Street and Main Street
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) May 4, 2020
The public and private sectors can close the gap in the fortunes between the two sides.

Let's Make a Deal With Our Robot Overlords
Cathy O'Neil (Bloomberg View) May 4, 2020
The pandemic will accelerate automation. This might be an opportunity for workers.

The Best Reason to Protect Workers From Covid-19
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) May 4, 2020
History shows that countries that treat labor badly have slower growth.

The Case for Deeply Negative Interest Rates
Kenneth Rogoff (Project Syndicate) May 4, 2020
Only monetary policy addresses credit throughout the economy. Until inflation and real interest rates rise from the grave, only a policy of effective deep negative interest rates, backed up by measures to prevent cash hoarding by financial firms, can do the job.

Debt restructuring in the time of COVID-19
Silvia Marchesi and Tania Masi (VoxEU) May 4, 2020
As a consequence of the COVID-19 crisis, which will hit certain countries particularly hard (including those with official creditors), there may be a wave of debt restructuring over the next few years. This column argues that the specific characteristics of sovereign debt re-negotiations are important. In particular, it focuses on the link between sovereign restructurings and ratings, an issue that is of relevance but that has not received enough attention in recent research.

A trade bargain to secure supplies of medical goods
Simon Evenett and L Alan Winters (VoxEU) May 4, 2020
The world trading system has faced policy disruptions as nations have scrambled to find the necessary medical supplies to deal with the Covid-19 pandemic. This column suggests that in return for importing governments agreeing to keep their import restrictions at their current low levels, exporting governments agree to qualify the extent to which they can restrict shipments abroad. It presents a straightforward, WTO-consistent, time-limited proposal that countries can publicly commit to at any time.

China's overseas lending and the looming developing country debt crisis
Sebastian Horn, Carmen Reinhart, and Christoph Trebesch (VoxEU) May 4, 2020
COVID-19 is wreaking economic havoc, and its most severe consequences are likely to be felt in the developing world. Recession, depressed commodity prices, collapsing cross-border trade, and a flight to safety in financial markets have set the stage for a replay of the 1930s and 1980s debt crises. This column presents insights from a comprehensive new dataset on China's overseas lending and shows that developing countries are much more indebted to China than previously known. Any effort to provide meaningful debt relief to the most vulnerable countries must encompass the debts owed to China.

The case for a new Marshall Plan
Alexia Delfino and Raffaella Sadun (VoxEU) May 4, 2020
As businesses emerg from lockdown, they will face the challenge of adopting new health and safety standards while maintaining profitability and productivity. Effective management will be crucial in aligning these private and social interests. This column explores how structured management training programmes – modelled after support given to European firms under the Marshall Plan – can help firms operate safely and productively in the Covid-19 era. It outlines several principles policymakers should follow in the design and implementation of these training programmes.

As If Things Aren't Bad Enough, Trump Mulls Fresh Trade War With China
Keith Johnson (FP) May 4, 2020
U.S. considers restoring tariffs as Trump makes reprisals against Beijing the center of his 2020 reelection bid.

Historical Patterns around Financial Crises
Pascal Paul and Joseph H. Pedtke (FRBSF Econ Letter) May 4, 2020
Long-run historical data for advanced economies provide evidence to help policymakers understand specific conditions that typically lead up to financial crises. Recent research finds that rapid growth in the top income share and prolonged low labor productivity growth are robust predictors of crises. Moreover, if crises are preceded by these developments, then the subsequent recoveries are slower. This recent empirical evidence suggests that financial crises are not simply random events but are typically preceded by a prolonged buildup of macrofinancial imbalances.

Debt relief alone will not save Argentina
FT View May 5, 2020
Economic woes go well beyond the coronavirus crisis.

U.S. and U.K. Can Set a Standard for Trade
Phil Gramm and Pat Toomey (WSJ) May 5, 2020
The two countries, united in their devotion to liberty, should abolish tariffs, quotas and set-asides.

The real work of helping companies bounce back from coronavirus hasn't even begun
Kate Burgess (FT) May 5, 2020
Government loans a start but not the end; Pendragon takes a pop at Lookers; insurers and honey badgers.

Business feels the fear in Australia-China trade dispute
Jamie Smyth (FT) May 5, 2020
Canberra's call for an inquiry into the origins of coronavirus has provoked threats from Beijing.

Facing Economic Disaster, France Turns against Globalism
Mihai Macovei (Mises Wire) May 5, 2020
France faces a future of spiraling debt and declining economic growth. So Emmanuel Macron has now embraced economic nationalism as a way out. It's not likely to work.

COVID-19 Risks Reigniting US-China Trade War
Jack Caporal (Brink) May 5, 2020
The COVID-19 outbreak is endangering an already frayed U.S.-China trade relationship, deepening strategic competition between the two countries. Any further trade escalation between the U.S. and China risks slowing the post-COVID-19 economic recovery.

The unreal dichotomy in COVID-19 mortality between high-income and developing countries
Philip Schellekens and Diego Sourrouille (Brookings) May 5, 2020
Tracking the severity of the mortality burden.

Trump Threatens China
Holger Schmieding (Globalist) May 5, 2020
Will Trump unleash a new trade war that could seriously impede the post-corona recovery?

Money Creation—Not Low Interest Rates—Is Behind the Boom-Bust Cycle
Joseph T. Salerno (Mises Wire) May 5, 2020
When it comes to understanding business cycles, Austrian school scholars stand on firm ground while critic John Tamny is all at sea.

China should export more medical gear to battle COVID-19
Chad P. Bown (PIIE) May 5, 2020
China has earned much of the blame it has received for alerting the world too slowly to the novel coronavirus outbreak that originated in Wuhan. Newly released government statistics for March indicate further that Chinese exports of surgical masks and respirators remain 5 percent lower than a year earlier, even though China had stirred worldwide hopes by claiming to have ramped up production of such vital equipment. China is clearly redirecting Chinese-made medical supplies for its own use, which may be understandable. But its priorities are contributing to skyrocketing prices for masks and respirators on the world market. And its limited exports are mostly going to the rich countries that can afford them.

As Recycling Dwindles, Supply Chains Are Buckling
Adam Minter (Bloomberg View) May 5, 2020
Never have recycled goods been more integral to the economy. Coronavirus is making them scarce.

German Court Issues a Dangerous Verdict for the ECB
Ferdinando Giugliano (Bloomberg View) May 5, 2020
If Germany's judges and institutions are allowed to quibble over the ECB's actions, then surely all euro area states will be able to do the same.

Dealing With Pandemic Debt Will Mean Breaking Some Taboos
Vince Cable (Bloomberg View) May 5, 2020
Debt monetization has traditionally been a dirty word, but the arguments against it are no longer so convincing.

Pay Cuts Are Better Than Layoffs in This Recession
Karl W. Smith (Bloomberg View) May 5, 2020
Covid-19 may be changing the usual thinking about how businesses treat workers in a downturn.

The Misguided War on Global Value Chains
Célestin Monga (Project Syndicate) May 5, 2020
The COVID-19 pandemic has brought economies around the world to an abrupt halt and highlighted the fragility of existing global value chains. But demolishing these key drivers of international trade and investment would only make a bad situation worse.

It's Time to Target Nominal GDP
Jim O'Neill (Project Syndicate) May 5, 2020
After years of persistently low inflation, tepid growth, and rising inequality, central banks can no longer justify a monetary-policy regime that targets price stability. To strengthen the post-pandemic recovery, they must shift gears, by adopting a policy objective that actually has some bearing on the real economy.

Planning for an American Bankruptcy Epidemic
Ben Iverson and Mark Roe (Project Syndicate) May 5, 2020
The COVID-19 pandemic looks likely to cause the biggest surge in bankruptcies that the United States' court system has ever experienced. Without an immediate increase in judicial capacity to manage the coming flood of cases, an even larger economic disaster awaits.

The Day After Tomorrow
Harold James (Project Syndicate) May 5, 2020
As in the interwar period, the COVID-19 pandemic will confront policymakers with the unenviable task of deciding when to declare the emergency over, and how to distribute the costs. The lesson from history is that the longer this debate is avoided, the worse the outcome will be for everyone.

Central bankers should not be forward-looking in times of crisis
Paul De Grauwe and Yuemei Ji (VoxEU) May 5, 2020
In times of crisis and extreme uncertainty, forward-looking policymaking becomes difficult. In the midst of the Covid-19 crisis, major central banks appear to be adopting policies based on current conditions, rather than forecasts. This column generalises this observation in a behavioural macroeconomic model which compares forward-looking and current-looking monetary policy. Although both approaches perform similarly in normal times, current-looking monetary policy performs better in crisis periods. When uncertainty is extreme, prudent central banks should be guided by what they observe, and not by unreliable forecasts.

EU trade policies: Carrot-and-stick mechanisms in the pursuit of non-trade policy objectives?
Ingo Borchert, Paola Conconi, Mattia Di Ubaldo, and Cristina Herghelegiu (VoxEU) May 5, 2020
The EU often conditions preferential access to its market on the achievement of non-trade policy objectives such as sustainable development, human rights, and good governance. This column studies the evolution of such objectives in EU trade agreements and Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) schemes over time, and reveals the legal and economic limitations of imposing conditionalities in trade agreements compared to the GSP. The findings suggest that if the EU wishes to rely more on trade policy to promote such objectives, it should focus on GSP programmes.

The invisible business risk of the COVID-19 pandemic
Jordan Schoenfeld (VoxEU) May 5, 2020
Are pandemics systemically important to modern-day financial markets? It is not obvious how a financial market's myriad interconnected parts would react to a pandemic-induced supply and demand shock. This column shows that the COVID-19 pandemic triggered unprecedented changes in employment levels and the values of stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies. Corporate managers also systematically underestimated their business-model exposure to pandemics in their annual report risk factors.

COVID-19: The skewness of the shock
Nicholas Bloom, Fatih Guvenen, and Sergio Salgado (VoxEU) May 5, 2020
During recessions, some firms and industries get hit far harder than others. This column argues that the current COVID-19 crisis is no exception. While most firms have experienced a negative demand shock, firms in the entertainment, services, and manufacturing sector have experienced a dramatic decline in sales that is likely to persist over several months. The increase in the probability of firm-level disasters or, more precisely, the decrease in the skewness of the distribution of firms' shocks, will play a significant role in the response of aggregate output and employment.

Towards a European Reconstruction Fund
Luis Garicano (VoxEU) May 5, 2020
The idea that Europe's response to the economic crisis should be based on the issuance of common perpetual bonds has been slowly gaining ground, but proposals that entail substantial increases to member states' debt risk hampering growth for decades to come. This column argues that the time has come for genuine European spending financed through European borrowing. It examines the legal and financial issues around the possible implementation of a proposal for the Commission to issue consolidated annuities ('EU Consols') to finance a €1 trillion economic reconstruction package.

Irresponsible Superpowers Must Cooperate
Amitav Acharya (YaleGlobal) May 5, 2020
Covid-19 response reveals that global powers need to improve their game on reforms, fact-finding and more.

The Post-crisis World: What Changes Are Coming?
K@W May 5, 2020
How will the world look following the COVID-19 pandemic? Some answers through the lens of three sectors: health care, finance and technology.

The 2020 Oil Crash's Unlikely Winner: Saudi Arabia
Jason Bordoff (FP) May 5, 2020
It's a year of carnage for oil nations. But at least one will emerge from the pandemic both economically and geopolitically stronger.

The Fate of the WTO and Global Trade Hangs on Fish
James Bacchus and Inu Manak (FP) May 5, 2020
Tuna, cod, and mackerel are going to decide the future of the global trading order as the WTO struggles to complete a deal.

Why Hassan Rouhani Ended Iran's Lockdown
Saheb Sadeghi (FP) May 5, 2020
The Islamic Republic could face a devastating second wave of coronavirus infections, but keeping the economy closed down without a safety net would have likely led to unrest and collapse.

A misguided court judgment in Germany
FT View May 6, 2020
The ECB's asset purchases are vital to the stability of the eurozone.

Debt relief: which countries are most vulnerable?
FT Reporters May 6, 2020
Emerging economies that have long tested investors' patience say they need fresh help.

How to escape the trap of excessive debt
Martin Wolf (FT) May 6, 2020
The rich will benefit if we create sustainable demand with less household borrowing.

Three key takeaways from the earnings season
Mohamed El-Erian (FT) May 6, 2020
Coronavirus has left holes in balance sheets and reduced guidance for investors.

Companies are dangerously drunk on debt
Robert Armstrong (FT) May 6, 2020
Sobering up after the crisis will require changes to tax laws, bonuses and pensions.

We risk a return to 1970s stagflation
Stephen Roach (FT) May 6, 2020
The death of inflation has been exaggerated and after the pandemic we may need it.

Lebanon's economic 'freefall' warning is understatement
David Gardner (FT) May 6, 2020
The recovery plan is more forthright than previous Lebanese to-do lists but the bar is low.

E.U. Is Facing Its Worst Recession Ever. Watch Out, World.
Matina Stevis-Gridneff and Jack Ewing (NYT) May 6, 2020
New forecasts predict a 7.4 percent economic collapse and risks of even worse decline if the reopening triggers a second virus wave.

Lebanon, COVID 19 and the Arrival of the IMF
Benjamin MacShane (Globalist) May 6, 2020
Protesters in Lebanon have plenty of reason to bemoan the autocratic response of the government — and its inability to deal with the economic crisis.

Fiscal Policies for the Recovery from COVID-19
Vitor Gaspar, W. Raphael Lam, and Mehdi Raissi (IMF) May 6, 2020
Countries need to invest $20 trillion more over the next 20 years in climate change and other SDGs.

Turning back the Poverty Clock: How will COVID-19 impact the world's poorest people?
Homi Kharas and Kristofer Hamel (Brookings) May 6, 2020
The release of the IMF's World Economic Outlook provides an initial country-by-country assessment of what might happen to the world economy in 2020 and 2021.

What Next in the International Financial Response to the COVID-19 Crisis?
Masood Ahmed (CGD) May 6, 2020
A generous reading of the recently convened meetings of the IMF and World Bank, and the associated meetings of the G7 and G20, is that everyone recognized the unprecedented nature of COVID-19 pandemic and its consequences for development and poverty: the international financial institutions (IFIs) took encouraging steps to increase their financial contribution and the G20 managed to agree on a useful, if limited, debt standstill for the poorest countries. A less generous observer would note that the steps taken and the commitments made fall woefully short of what will be needed to mitigate the impact of this pandemic on development progress. A glaring disconnect also remains between the spend-what-it-takes approach that rich countries have (rightly) adopted at home and what they seem unprepared to do to tackle this crisis in the rest of the world. No country is safe if the pandemic rages elsewhere in the world.

The Pandemic Should Spur New Reforms in Egypt
Timothy Kaldas (Bloomberg View) May 6, 2020
This time, the focus should be on inclusivity, resilience and sustainability.

Why Coronavirus Is Punishing the Economy More than Spanish Flu
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) May 6, 2020
Though the 1918 outbreak was deadlier, the industries that dominated then were less vulnerable to a pandemic.

U.S. Risks Coronavirus Recession 2.0
Conor Sen (Bloomberg View) May 6, 2020
Congress needs to pass new spending to support the faint recovery now underway.

Coronavirus Threatens Incomes That Migrants Send Home
Ben Schott (Bloomberg View) May 6, 2020
Economies that depend on remittances are in a precarious situation.

Buy When the Fed Is Buying Won't Work Anymore
Jim Bianco (Bloomberg View) May 6, 2020
The recent rebound in stocks was built on false hopes about the economy and efforts to stem the pandemic.

Germany Tries to Find Out Who Its Investors Are
Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg View) May 6, 2020
For the first time in five years, Berlin hired a syndicate of banks to run a bond sale. Even the mightiest issuers are having to do things differently now.

Restructuring Argentina's Private Debt is Essential
Joseph E. Stiglitz, Edmund S. Phelps, and Carmen M. Reinhart (Project Syndicate) May 6, 2020
Argentina's creditors are being asked to accept a proposal that would reduce their revenue stream but make it sustainable. A responsible resolution will set a positive precedent, not only for Argentina, but for the international financial system as a whole.

The Threat of Enfeebled Great Powers
Arvind Subramanian (Project Syndicate) May 6, 2020
n today's G-minus-2 world, both the United States and China are providing bad leadership. By further weakening the internal cohesion of the world's leading powers, the COVID-19 crisis threatens to leave the world even more rudderless, unstable, and conflict-prone.

Germany's Judges Declare War on the ECB
Willem H. Buiter (Project Syndicate) May 6, 2020
In a new ruling, Germany's highest court has threatened to throw a wrench into the European Central Bank's efforts to extend liquidity and other forms of assistance to distressed eurozone governments. Coming amid a deep economic crisis, the court's decision could force one or more countries to crash out of the monetary union.

What Real Pandemic Aid Would Look Like
Kailash Satyarthi (Project Syndicate) May 6, 2020
Around the world, civil-society groups and ordinary people are doing what they can to prevent the world's poorest and most vulnerable populations – particularly children – from suffering the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic. Rich-country governments must show the same level of compassion.

Who's Afraid of COVID-19?
Kaushik Basu (Project Syndicate) May 6, 2020
Dismissing or downplaying the risks of COVID-19 is a grave mistake. But so is embracing fear-based policies, which ultimately generate more risks – such as economic hardship, food insecurity, and generalized anxiety – than they mitigate.

Lack of demand during the coronavirus crisis
Veronica Guerrieri, Guido Lorenzoni, Ludwig Straub, and Iván Werning (VoxEU) May 6, 2020
The Covid-19 pandemic and the policies taken to control its spread have many features of an aggregate supply shock, as workers who stay home are prevented from producing goods and services. This column argues that when a supply shock asymmetrically affects different sectors of the economy, it can produce a contraction in demand even larger than the original shock, leading to deflationary pressures. This is due to complementarities across sectors and the fact that workers in different sectors are differentially affected and lack insurance.

Southern European and emerging market firms are under severe distress
Erica Bosio and Simeon Djankov (VoxEU) May 6, 2020
With lockdown measures in place almost worldwide now, cash-flow represents a significant concern for firms across multiple sectors. It remains to be seen exactly which types of business will be able to weather the coming storm. This column estimates the survival time of nearly 7,000 firms in a dozen Southern European and emerging market economies. Under the assumptions that firms have no incoming revenues, the median survival time across industries ranges from 8 to 19 weeks. Once collapsed export demand is taken into account, the median survival time falls to between 8 and 14 weeks.

China's mixed data point to challenge of rebooting economy
Sun Yu (FT) May 7, 2020
Exports rebound but services remain stuck as country starts to reopen after lockdown.

Containing China Will Be Complicated
Elbridge Colby and A. Wess Mitchell (WSJ) May 7, 2020
Expect Beijing to grow more assertive as the West rethinks its economic attachments after the coronavirus.

Losses by central banks are nothing to fear
Economist May 7, 2020
They do not reflect financial doom. But they expose the fragility of independence.

The buoyant oil traders
Economist May 7, 2020
Not everyone in the oil industry is licking their wounds.

State-Owned Enterprises in the Time of COVID-19
Vitor Gaspar, Paulo Medas, and John Ralyea (IMF) May 7, 2020
State-owned enterprises' assets are worth $45 trillion, equivalent to half of global GDP.

Amid the COVID-19 Outbreak, Consumers Temper Spending Outlook
Gizem Kosar, Kyle Smith, and Wilbert van der Klaauw (FRBNY Liberty St Econ) May 7, 2020
The latest SCE Household Spending Survey from the New York Fed's Center for Microeconomic Data shows a number of sharp changes in consumers' spending behavior and outlook. Given the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak, the survey—fielded between April 2 and April 30—showed that the median expected growth in non-essential spending dropped to 0.2 percent in April, from 1.4 percent in December.

A once-in-a-century pandemic collides with a once-in-a-decade census
Andrew Whitby (Brookings) May 7, 2020
Population is the common denominator.

This Is No Time to Play Games With China Savers
Anjani Trivedi (Bloomberg View) May 7, 2020
Deposits at riskier small lenders are a profit-booster for large institutions, an uncertain refuge for households.

Inflation Is the Way to Pay Off Coronavirus Debt
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) May 7, 2020
By letting prices rise faster, the Fed can ease the burden of heavy borrowing.

The Market Keeps Distancing Itself From the Economy
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) May 7, 2020
Stock investors choose to look at the sunny side of a horrible labor situation.

Helicopter Money Won't Ease Latin America's Pandemic Pain
Mac Margolis (Bloomberg View) May 7, 2020
There are better ways to help its poorest than instituting a universal basic income.

A Win-Win Moment Dawns for a New Bond Market
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) May 7, 2020
The pandemic may finally prompt U.K. local authorities to tap the capital markets for funds.

There's Plenty of Room for Bulls and Bears
Tim Duy (Bloomberg View) May 7, 2020
The optimists in the stock market are focusing on the direction of economic activity, and the pessimists are stuck on the level of activity.

Why America Can Make Semiconductors But Not Swabs
Dan Wang (Bloomberg View) May 7, 2020
U.S. factories are as productive as ever but they've lost the process knowledge needed to retool quickly in a crisis.

The Global Resilience Imperative
Johan Rockstrom and Ottmar Edenhofer (Project Syndicate) May 7, 2020
Today's catastrophic risks to global health, climate, and biodiversity call for urgent collective action that makes humans true stewards of the planet. This involves recognizing that everyone's individual health and prosperity depends on respecting planetary boundaries and properly managing what belongs to all of us.

Argentina and How to Avoid Global Financial Catastrophe
Jeffrey D. Sachs (Project Syndicate) May 7, 2020
If handled with care, this year's debt-service payments can and should be recapitalized at low interest rates to avoid a financial pile-up. If not, 2020 will mark a devastating new chapter of global financial crisis.

Growth recurring in a preindustrial economy
Leandro de la Escosura, Carlos Álvarez-Nogal, and Carlos Santiago-Caballero (VoxEU) May 7, 2020
It is believed that living standards in world economies stayed roughly constant prior to 1800. This column presents data on Spanish population and economic development from 1277-1850 which challenges this view. Population and economic growth are found to evolve simultaneously, contradicting the Malthusian view. Spain was a frontier economy within Europe that, after a drop in living standards after the Black Death, grew steadily until the 1570s, when its path diverged from the rest of Europe.

The rise of extreme politics in a federation
Gianmarco Daniele, Amedeo Piolatto, and Willem Sas (VoxEU) May 7, 2020
Polarisation, populism, and extremism are on the rise on both sides of the Atlantic. This column focuses on the role of policies in multi-level federations (such as the EU) in partially explaining the rise of extreme political parties. An analysis of differences in vote shares between European and national parliamentary elections suggests that support for extreme politicians is highest in countries with the largest gains and losses from federal policies. Eurosceptic parties, which are very protective of national interests, win higher shares of the EU vote in core and periphery countries, whilst the opposite is true for countries in the middle.

Economic policy responses to a pandemic: A COVID-19 Economic Stimulus Index
Ceyhun Elgin, Gokce Basbug, and Abdullah Yalaman (VoxEU) May 7, 2020
The economic measures that governments around the world have taken in response to the Covid-19 pandemic vary in breadth and scope. This column presents a comprehensive review of the measures adopted by 166 countries. The findings show that the median age of the population, the number of hospital beds per capita, GDP per capita, and the number of total cases are all significantly associated with the extent of the economic policy response.

Don't Blame Supply Chains
Stephen Roach (YaleGlobal) May 7, 2020
Breaking supply chains, to impose punishment or reduce vulnerability, would be a costly miscalculation, reducing innovation.

Free markets must be protected through the pandemic
FT View May 8, 2020
Sensible and targeted state intervention can help capitalism to thrive post-crisis.

Asian governments boost dollar borrowing to fight coronavirus
Primrose Riordan and Thomas Hale (FT) May 8, 2020
Countries in region issue debt at close to fastest rate in a decade due to pandemic.

How this crisis will take us all back to the 1970s
Robert Shrimsley (FT) May 8, 2020
Brace for a return to the most dismal of decades.

Debt relief for US consumers leaves investors flying blind
Robert Armstrong (FT) May 8, 2020
Forbearance and federal support programmes disguise how badly Americans have been hit.

It may be too soon to make a big move toward 'value' stocks
Michael Mackenzie (FT) May 8, 2020
Cheaper parts of the market can lag a lot more before the current global downturn ends.

People cannot just be ordered back to work and to spending
Martin Wolf (FT) May 8, 2020
It seems foolish to imagine the UK will swiftly return to life as it was before Covid-19.

Too much cash is chasing too few desirable assets
John Dizard (FT) May 8, 2020
With no productive use of liquidity, money is going into market speculation driving recovery in asset prices.

How to save pandemic survivors from unemployment
Richard Layard (FT) May 8, 2020
Government must prioritise getting the young back to work.

The Economic Lockdown Catastrophe
WSJ May 8, 2020
The worst jobs report in history shows why the economy must reopen.

The coronavirus has helped us finally see China for what it is
Kathleen Parker (WP) May 8, 2020
Nothing says 'reality check' like a deadly pandemic, a national quarantine and a collapsing global economy.

Global Poverty's Sputnik Moment
Steve Hollingworth (Project Syndicate) May 8, 2020
In the 1950s, President Dwight Eisenhower spearheaded massive public investment in science and technology to counter the Soviet Union's strategic ambitions. More than a half-century later, the battle for geopolitical dominance includes the fight against global poverty, and this time the US is losing.

Keeping Up with the Fed
Koichi Hamada (Project Syndicate) May 8, 2020
Almost immediately after the COVID-19 outbreak began in the US, the Federal Reserve began pumping dollars into the economy. As the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis showed, this will leave many central banks with little choice but to pursue their own monetary expansion.

Risk Managers Did Not Ace the Coronavirus Test
Ben Schott (Bloomberg View) May 8, 2020
The results of a global survey do not inspire confidence in executives charged with seeing existential threats.

For Argentina, Coronavirus Is a Matter of Life or Debt
Mac Margolis (Bloomberg View) May 8, 2020
The pandemic and its economic turmoil may help avert a ninth default by Latin America's second-biggest economy.

When the End of Economic Perfection Spells Revolution
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg View) May 8, 2020
Australia's response to Covid-19 is upending how decisions are made in a one-time recession-proof nirvana.

Even the Essential Industries Aren't Adding That Many Jobs
Justin Fox (Bloomberg View) May 8, 2020
A look at the only sectors with rising employment in April reveals some sparse pickings.

Markets Want Negative Rates Despite Unexpected Fed Gift
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) May 8, 2020
Despite statements by monetary policy makers that negative-yielding debt is unlikely and undesirable, the push is on for just that.

Germany's Constitutional Court Goes Rogue
Katharina Pistor (Project Syndicate) May 8, 2020
Germany's Federal Constitutional Court, heedless of the political consequences for Europe and Germany, has issued a ruling that risks sacrificing the euro and possibly even the European Union. An institution that, under Germany's Basic Law, no one governs is now out of control.

The Swedish experience with negative central bank rates
Fredrik N G Andersson, and Lars Jonung (VoxEU) May 8, 2020
Negative interest rates were once seen as impossible outside the realm of economic theory. However, recently several central banks have imposed such rates, with prominent economists supporting this move. This column investigates the actual effects of negative interest rates, taking evidence from the Swedish experience during 2015-2019. It is evident that the policy's effect on the inflation rate was modest, and that it contributed to increased financial vulnerabilities. The lesson from the experiment is clear: Do not do it again.

Cultural and economic discrimination by the Great Leveller
Annie Tubadji, Don Webber, and Frederic Boy (VoxEU) May 8, 2020
The COVID-19 pandemic is a deadly threat to human life on our planet. This column uses a spatial analytical approach to show that the pandemic has disproportionately affected the economically and socially vulnerable places across the UK along the lines of existing economic and cultural divides. The pandemic is likely to exacerbate existing real and perceived deprivation on the brink of an expected economic shock at the end of the Brexit implementation period. If health deprivation is compounded by Brexit-related economic blows, greater protests are likely to be the result.

Political participation, populism, and the COVID-19 Crisis
Massimo Morelli (VoxEU) May 8, 2020
Political participation is an important, and often neglected, channel through which economic insecurity, reductions in trust, and changes in cultural attitudes all affect populism. This column argues both the demand for and supply of populism depend on mobilisation, and that populism can be seen as a mobilisation campaign strategy. While this framework explains the recent surge of populism, it also provides reasons to believe that the populism wave could be temporary. The column also discusses possible consequences of the Covid-19 crisis for populists in and out of power.

It may be too soon to make a big move toward 'value' stocks
Michael Mackenzie (FT) May 9, 2020
Cheaper parts of the market can lag a lot more before the current global downturn ends.

The world's food system has so far weathered the challenge of covid-19
Economist May 9, 2020
But things could still go awry.

How This Crisis Differs from the 2008–2009 Financial Crisis
Arkadiusz Sieron (Mises Wire) May 9, 2020
In this crisis the money supply has already increased far more than during the last crisis. But it's hard to say when this will produce inflation because we're still in the midst of a demand shock and a collapse in oil prices.

The Hydrogen Economy's Time Is Approaching
David Fickling (Bloomberg View) May 9, 2020
Governments should use some of the trillions marked for post-coronavirus stimulus spending to advance this green technology.

COVID-19, volatility, and dark trading in financial markets
Gbenga Ibikunle and Khaladdin Rzayev (VoxEU) May 9, 2020
Dark pools, which are trading venues that do not offer pre-trade transparency, are often suspected of causing difficulties with price discovery, and of adversely affecting market quality. This column studies the effects of COVID-19-induced volatility on trading in dark pools. Increased volatility is found to be linked with an economically significant shift of market share from dark pools to lit exchanges.

The ECB is deluding itself over German court ruling
Wolfgang Munchau (FT) May 10, 2020
A smart response would be for the EU to address the problems of the eurozone head on.

Here is how banks can help save the economy
Thomas Huertas (FT) May 10, 2020
Some simple steps to prevent the health emergency from causing a financial crisis.

Gambling on US equities is becoming more difficult
Rana Foroohar (FT) May 10, 2020
Deglobalisation should make investors think twice about betting on index tracker funds.

Dubai contemplates a downsized future after the pandemic
Simeon Kerr and Andrew England (FT) May 10, 2020
The emirate's economy is especially vulnerable, and may need a bailout from its big brother, Abu Dhabi.

Lebanon's Economic Crisis Explodes, Threatening Decades of Prosperity
Ben Hubbard (NYT) May 10, 2020
Bad planning, corruption and the sudden shock of a pandemic have caused the Lebanese currency to crash and consumer prices to jump. Hunger looms.

Who Needs Oil When Even OPEC Telecommutes?
Nabil Al-Khowaiter (WSJ) May 10, 2020
Changes wrought by the pandemic could dampen global demand for years and kill American shale.

Don't Mistake Higher Oil Prices for a License to Pump
Julian Lee (Bloomberg View) May 10, 2020
Opening the taps too soon risks another price crash just as demand starts to recover.

Negative Oil Is Positive for Clean Power
Liam Denning and Nathaniel Bullard (Bloomberg View) May 10, 2020
Electricity markets were built for this sort of thing.

How COVID-19 is transforming the world economy
Kemal Kilic and Dalia Marin (VoxEU) May 10, 2020
In the wake of the Global Crisis, uncertainty in the world economy led many firms to reassess their business models. Rather than relying on global supply chains, an increasing number of firms invested in robots, which prompted a renaissance of manufacturing in industrialised countries. This column argues that changes in the world economy due to COVID-19 make a V-shaped recovery from the coming recession unlikely. Instead, COVID-19 will accelerate the process begun after the Global Crisis by encouraging firms to re-shore activity back to rich countries.

The case for permanent stimulus
Paul Krugman (VoxEU) May 10, 2020
Policymakers are frantically trying to come up with a policy response to the Covid-19 crisis. This column, taken from a recent Vox eBook, argues that there is a very good case for putting a sustained, productive programme of stimulus in place as soon as possible, instead of scrambling to come up with short-term measures every time bad things happen.

India must now help its people back to work
FT View May 11, 2020
Fiscal constraints should be put aside to support the country through Covid-19.

The Fed's Vietnam moment
Robin Wigglesworth (FT) May 11, 2020
What the US central bank has now done in understandable haste, it may end up repenting at leisure.

South-east Asia rides fourth wave of regional growth
Parag Khanna (FT) May 11, 2020
Youth, education and urbanisation make this patchwork of nations ripe for foreign investment.

Why some companies will survive this crisis and others will die
Andrew Hill (FT) May 11, 2020
It is not a given that all the oldest or largest companies will outlive this crisis — adaptability is key.

Onshoring won't protect us
Claire Jones (FT) May 11, 2020
Despite the pandemic highlighting their flaws, we don't think it's time to scrap global value chains.

Coronavirus crisis: does value investing still make sense?
Robin Wigglesworth (FT) May 11, 2020
The strategy that once worked for Keynes and Buffett has performed badly. The pandemic has compounded the pain.

US-China economic decoupling accelerates in first quarter of 2020
James Kynge (FT) May 11, 2020
Impact of coronavirus exacerbates chill between countries as investments fall sharply.

Asia's busy investors seek opportunities beyond China
Sebastian Shehadi and Alex Irwin-Hunt (FT) May 11, 2020
Foreign direct investment: Vietnam and Singapore highlight the underlying trends.

Why Economic Pain Could Persist Even After the Pandemic Is Contained
Neil Irwin (NYT) May 11, 2020
Plunging revenue at many businesses, whether they close or not, could ripple through the economy and block a quick return to prosperity.

10-4: How to Reopen the Economy by Exploiting the Coronavirus's Weak Spot
Uri Alon, Ron Milo & Eran Yashiv (NYT) May 11, 2020
People can work in two-week cycles, on the job for four days then, by the time they might become infectious, 10 days at home in lockdown.

How to Create a Pandemic Depression
Paul Krugman (NYT) May 11, 2020
Opening the economy too soon can backfire, badly.

The Elites Were Living High. Then Came the Fall.
Annalee Newitz (NYT) May 11, 2020
Modern cities can learn from the fate of the collapsed civilizations at Ugarit and Mycenae.

The national debt is out of control
Robert Samuelson (WP) May 11, 2020
The behavior of the United States increasingly resembles that of a developing country.

Who's decoupling from whom?
David P. Goldman (AT) May 11, 2020
China's March export value rose 8.5% year on year, diverging widely from analyst forecasts which foresaw a 12% decline. Strong exports growth to Asia, and especially Southeast Asia, fed the unexpected improvement. The March data denote a steady increase in Asian economic integration, in which a larger portion of Asian trade is directed towards Asia itself.

How Pandemics Leave the Poor Even Farther Behind
Davide Furceri, Prakash Loungani, and Jonathan D. Ostry (IMF) May 11, 2020
The COVID-19 crisis is now widely seen as the greatest economic calamity since the Great Depression. In January, the IMF expected global income to grow 3 percent; it is now forecast to fall 3 percent, much worse than during the Great Recession of 2008-09. Behind this dire statistic is an even grimmer possibility: if past pandemics are any guide, the toll on poorer and vulnerable segments of society will be several times worse. Indeed, a recent poll of top economists found that the vast majority felt the COVID-19 pandemic will worsen inequality, in part through its disproportionate impact on low-skilled workers.

Economic Perspectives in Latin America: Navigating the Great Lockdown
Alejandro Fiorito (CGD) May 11, 2020
What are the risks and challenges for Latin America?

Inflation Worriers Will Be Wrong for a Second Time
Barry Ritholtz (Bloomberg View) May 11, 2020
They warned of soaring prices after the financial crisis when deflation was the bigger risk. It probably is again.

Indonesia Walks a Fine Line Between Bailouts, Downgrades
Shuli Ren (Bloomberg View) May 11, 2020
The pitfalls of Jokowi's reliance on state-owned enterprises can't be wished away during this pandemic's economic crisis.

Why Is Anyone Drilling Shale at All These Days?
Liam Denning (Bloomberg View) May 11, 2020
Pushing more oil into a glutted market won't help prices rise.

The EU Is Entering a Constitutional Crisis
Andreas Kluth (Bloomberg View) May 11, 2020
By undermining Europe's top court, Germany's constitutional judges may have opened Pandora's Box.

Oil Won't Get a Post-Virus Lift From Public Transport
David Fickling (Bloomberg View) May 11, 2020
Commuters may not want to pack into germ-laden trains again. But they're more likely to work at home than get back behind the wheel.

Did Germany's Constitutional Court Inadvertently Strengthen the Eurozone?
Hans-Helmut Kotz (Project Syndicate) May 11, 2020
Despite the knotty issues raised by the court's recent ruling on the European Central Bank's program to purchase member states' public-sector bonds, there could be a silver lining. It is now more likely that the European Union will be forced to confront the main institutional weakness of its monetary union head-on.

Is COVID-19 Killing Democracy?
Guy Verhofstadt (Project Syndicate) May 11, 2020
Global media are so consumed by the public-health and economic consequences of COVID-19 that they have failed to pay adequate attention to growing political and institutional risks. In fact, if we are not careful, the biggest casualty of COVID-19 could be democracy.

Navigating Deglobalization
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Project Syndicate) May 11, 2020
Appeals to recommit to globalization are highly unlikely to gain traction in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Those keen to preserve globalization would instead be better advised to focus on minimizing the disruption caused by the coming period of deglobalization and laying the groundwork for a more sustainable process thereafter.

The Crisis of a Lifetime
Gregor Peter Schmitz (Project Syndicate) May 11, 2020
Only one thing is certain about the post-pandemic world: there is no way back to the globalized economy that preceded it. Everything else is up for grabs, including the rise of China, the fate of the United States, and the survival of the European Union.

Long haul lockdown: Three scenarios for the impact of coronavirus on the UK economy
Jack Leslie, Richard Hughes, Charlie McCurdy, Cara Pacitti, James Smith, and Daniel Tomlinson (VoxEU) May 11, 2020
The scale of the economic impact of coronavirus is only starting to become clear, but effective government policy responses depend on realistic estimates of the depth and length of the recession. Drawing on theory, experience from past viral outbreaks, and real-time data, this column presents three scenarios for the UK economy over the next five years. Economic outcomes could easily be worse than many current forecasts. Crucially, the duration and strictness of social distancing restrictions will define the total loss in output during the crisis and influence the likely pace of recovery post-crisis.

Growth in the shadow of COVID-19 debt
Jamus Lim (VoxEU) May 11, 2020
Large fiscal expenditures, as well as more loans by households and firms, will lead to sharp increases in public and private debt in the near future. The resulting debt burdens may impact both post-lockdown economic recovery and medium-run growth prospects. This column presents evidence on the effects of the total debt burden on output dynamics. The results suggest increases in total debt to GDP have significant negative effects on growth. Helping economies recover from the dramatic COVID-19 shock will require tackling both public and private borrowing.

Coronavirus and the Risk of Deflation
Jens H.E. Christensen, James M. Gamble IV, and Simon Zhu (FRBSF Econ Letter) May 11, 2020
The pandemic caused by COVID-19 represents an unprecedented negative shock to the global economy that is likely to severely depress economic activity in the near term. Could the crisis also put substantial downward pressure on price inflation? One way to assess the potential risk to the inflation outlook is by analyzing prices of standard and inflation-indexed government bonds. The probability of declining price levels—or deflation—among four major countries within the next year indicates that the perceived risk remains muted, despite the recent economic turmoil.

The world needs a new attitude towards debt
FT View May 12, 2020
Borrowing will help businesses survive but makes economies fragile.

German court decides to take back control with ECB ruling
Martin Wolf (FT) May 12, 2020
Future historians may mark this as the decisive turning point in Europe's history towards disintegration.

What the history of market crashes teaches us about the coronavirus crisis
Peter Oppenheimer (FT) May 12, 2020 Covid-19 crisis has laid bare weaknesses in supply chains
Tineke Frikkee (FT) May 12, 2020
Companies with pricing power will be best insulated as production moves closer to home.

The wealthy should welcome an opportunity to reduce inequality
Stefan Wagstyl (FT) May 12, 2020
Covid-19 has thrown the gap between the rich and not-rich into sharp focus — the time has come to take action.

Business cannot simply awake from this coma and carry on
Raghuram Rajan (FT) May 12, 2020
It made sense to support everyone when the coronavirus crisis first hit but now hard choices are needed.

Why the coming emerging markets debt crisis will be messy
Colby Smith and Robin Wigglesworth (FT) May 12, 2020
Large investment funds could play hardball with developing countries that default.

The message in the ruling
Jean Pisani-Ferry (Bruegel) May 12, 2020
The German Constitutional Court's ruling on the ECB's asset purchase programme is open to much criticism but it can hardly be blamed for raising an important question.

How Did China's COVID-19 Shutdown Affect U.S. Supply Chains?
Sebastian Heise (FRBNY Liberty St Econ) May 12, 2020
The trade relationship between the United States and China has been characterized by rising protectionism and heightened trade policy uncertainty over the last few years. The COVID-19 pandemic led to the temporary closure of factories in China, affecting international supply chains. The author examines how the recent period of economic disruptions in China has affected U.S. imports and discusses how this episode might impact firms' supply chains going forward.

Emerging from the Great Lockdown in Asia and Europe
Changyong Rhee and Poul M. Thomsen (IMF) May 12, 2020
Several countries in Asia and Europe, where the COVID-19 outbreak appears to have peaked, are gradually reopening their economies. Without a vaccine or effective treatment, policymakers will be balancing the benefits of resuming economic activity against the potential cost of another increase in infection rates. They face difficult choices, in part, because the costs of erring in either direction could be very large.

The Fed Is Calling the Shots in Markets
Barry Ritholtz (Bloomberg View) May 12, 2020
That makes it tricky to determine fair values for equities.

Deadly Equations Confront Asia's Virus Reopening
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg View) May 12, 2020
Leaders are faced with a painful choice between economic paralysis and the threat of resurgent infections.

Rolling Up the Welcome Mat for Chinese Investors
Mihir Sharma (Bloomberg View) May 12, 2020
Governments are right to worry about outsiders snapping up struggling companies amid the pandemic.

Argentina Gives Debt Negotiation Another Chance
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) May 12, 2020
The government's change in its stance on its offer raises two dynamics that may be best viewed through a game-theory lens.

The U.S. Is Testing the Patience of Bondholders
Jared Dillian (Bloomberg View) May 12, 2020
It's no longer impossible to think the Treasury Department might not be able to find buyers for all the debt it's selling.

Covid-19 Will Sicken the Housing Market Until the Pandemic Lifts
Timothy L. O'Brien (Bloomberg View) May 12, 2020
A leading real-estate data junkie is now focused on the impact of the coronavirus.

OPEC's Next Domino to Fall Could Be Nigeria
Liam Denning (Bloomberg View) May 12, 2020
One of the oil market's big problems is its dependence on countries hardwired for higher prices.

Hedge Funds, Go Home — Japan Is Closing the Door
Anjani Trivedi (Bloomberg View) May 12, 2020
Tokyo is playing the national security card against activist foreign investors. They shouldn't come back.

Coronavirus Is Giving Cost-Benefit Analysts Fits
Cass R. Sunstein (Bloomberg View) May 12, 2020
Social scientists are struggling to apply proven measurement tools needed to weigh mortality risks against economic ones.

Automation and Human Agency
Sami Mahroum (Project Syndicate) May 12, 2020
No matter how fast, cheap, or efficient robots are, they cannot compensate for the human ambition, desire, need, and greed that ultimately drive supply and demand. This has been a key lesson of the pandemic, which has underscored the need to leverage technology to enhance human agency.

Deglobalization and Its Discontents
Richard N. Haass (Project Syndicate) May 12, 2020
If great power rivalries, and how well or poorly they were managed, shaped much of the history of the past few centuries, the current era is more likely to be defined by global challenges and how well or poorly the world addresses them. Above all, that requires avoiding false cures.

Taking the German Constitutional Court Seriously
Marcel Fratzscher (Project Syndicate) May 12, 2020
Given the many flaws in the controversial ruling by Germany's Federal Constitutional Court against the European Central Bank, it is tempting to dismiss the decision as yet another instance of German obstructionism. But either through persuasion or reform, Germany's longstanding complaints will have to be addressed.

A Pandemic of Hunger
Esther Ngumbi (Project Syndicate) May 12, 2020
The COVID-19 pandemic has unleashed a global plague of a different sort: food insecurity. Stepping up efforts to ensure food security for all is essential to preventing the COVID-19 crisis from becoming a humanitarian calamity.

The New Empty Argument Against Trade
Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg (Project Syndicate) May 12, 2020
To those already predisposed to favor domestic production over international trade, the COVID-19 pandemic seems like a case in point. Yet a closer look at the facts shows that, if anything, the current crisis offers powerful evidence of why we need global supply chains and widely distributed production.

Making the Best of a Post-Pandemic World
Dani Rodrik (Project Syndicate) May 12, 2020
Insofar as the world economy was already on a fragile, unsustainable path, COVID-19 clarifies the challenges we face and the decisions we must make. The fate of the world economy hinges not on what the virus does, but on how we choose to respond.

The cost of the COVID-19 crisis
Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, and Michael Weber (VoxEU) May 12, 2020
Business cycles are rarely a matter of life or death in advanced economies, but the COVID-19 crisis is forcing policymakers into painful trade-offs between saving lives and saving the economy. This column uses several waves of a customised survey to study the economic costs of US lockdowns in terms of spending, labour market outcomes, and macroeconomic expectations. It finds overall spending drops of more than 30%, unemployment expectations climbing more than 10%, inflation expectations falling, uncertainty rising, and plans to purchase large durables plummeting.

Bank resolution frameworks in systemic crises
Thorsten Beck, Deyan Radev, and Isabel Schnabel (VoxEU) May 12, 2020
Bank resolution regimes designed to deal with idiosyncratic bank distress have been widely established or upgraded over the last decade. This column shows however, that more comprehensive resolution regimes may increase systemic risk in response to a system-wide shock. Hence, bank resolution regimes may benefit from a macroprudential design, including a strictly defined financial stability exemption for bail-in rules during periods of systemic distress.

The cost of the COVID-19 crisis
Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, and Michael Weber (VoxEU) May 12, 2020
Business cycles are rarely a matter of life or death in advanced economies, but the COVID-19 crisis is forcing policymakers into painful trade-offs between saving lives and saving the economy. This column uses several waves of a customised survey to study the economic costs of US lockdowns in terms of spending, labour market outcomes, and macroeconomic expectations. It finds overall spending drops of more than 30%, unemployment expectations climbing more than 10%, inflation expectations falling, uncertainty rising, and plans to purchase large durables plummeting.

COVID-19 crisis in the euro area: Recession or 'double-peak' expansion?
Philippe Weil, Refet Gürkaynak, John Fernald, Evi Pappa, and Antonella Trigari (VoxEU) May 12, 2020
The contraction in the euro area economic activity is clear. The CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee notes that it is the path activity will take from here on that will determine how this episode will be designated. Policies that counter the endogenous propagation of the pandemic shock may lead to a double-peak expansion, an expansion ongoing since 2013 interrupted by the pandemic shock, whereas continued decline in activity after the health shock is over will characterize a particularly deep recession. This column discusses the conceptual issues involved in making cyclical taxonomies.

The Pandemic Is Laying Bare a Global Water Crisis
Alan Nicol (FP) May 12, 2020
Insufficient water for washing is likely to worsen the coronavirus in the poorest nations. There's a better way forward.

We Can't Stop the Coronavirus Unless We Stop Corruption
Alexandra Wrage (FP) May 12, 2020
The world is pouring trillions of dollars into coronavirus vaccines and economic stimulus efforts. But without strict measures, graft will prevent funds from reaching the right recipients.

EU must act against German court threat
FT View May 13, 2020
An infringement action is needed to protect bloc's legal order.

Robust equities are not a reflection of investor optimism
Megan Greene (FT) May 13, 2020
Gains in healthcare and tech stocks say more about our needs than the shape of a recovery.

Coronavirus will usher in the industrial robots
Kana Inagaki (FT) May 13, 2020
Likely increase in automation to safeguard employees will create anxieties among the workforce.

Debt should not be the only tool to get companies through Covid-19
Andrea Vismara (FT) May 13, 2020
European governments and regulators need to make equity financing easier to access.

Premature peak in oil demand risks strategies being left stranded
Kate Burgess (FT) May 13, 2020
Strains show at BP; Numis shows class in sea of scrappers; Gilbert's underwhelming send-off.

The Pandemic Will Permanently Change the Auto Industry
Jack Ewing (NYT) May 13, 2020
Plunging sales could force factories to close and lead to takeovers and mergers, but also bolster sales of electric cars.

Germany Needs to Become a Great Power Again
Walter Russell Mead (WSJ) May 13, 2020
Seventy-five years after V-E Day, only Berlin can confront Europe's cultural and monetary crises.

China, Australia edge towards Covid-19 trade war
Alan Boyd (AT) May 13, 2020
China blocks Australian beef and barley imports in punitive response to Canberra's persistent call for a Covid-19 probe.

Six Key Questions on U.S. Policy and the Economic Outlook
Libby Cantrill and Tiffany Wilding (PIMCO) May 13, 2020
The U.S. political focus has shifted to the reopening of the economy.

Modi's Need for Control Impairs India's Virus Recovery
Andy Mukherjee (Bloomberg View) May 13, 2020
Giving states more freedom to act on their own might have mitigated both the human and economic damage.

Business As Usual Is Still a Long Way Off
Ben Schott (Bloomberg View) May 13, 2020
American executives aren't so hopeful that their companies will have a quick post-pandemic recovery.

Is It Smart to Spend Billions on the Future?
Anjani Trivedi (Bloomberg View) May 13, 2020
Toyota thinks so, drawing on lessons of previous crises when it failed to get ahead of the curve.

China Inc. Is Unloved Abroad, Unwanted at Home
Shuli Ren (Bloomberg View) May 13, 2020
U.S.-listed mainland companies are facing an increasingly unfriendly climate in New York. Shanghai isn't looking any better.

Modi's Need for Control Impairs India's Virus Recovery
Andy Mukherjee (Bloomberg View) May 13, 2020
Giving states more freedom to act on their own might have mitigated both the human and economic damage.

The Fed Should Stop Being Such a Drag
Narayana Kocherlakota (Bloomberg View) May 13, 2020
The central bank needs to fight unemployment more aggressively.

Six Ways the Coronavirus Will Make Inequality Worse
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) May 13, 2020
The Covid-19 economic collapse is just like all the others: It will hit the poor hardest.

Britain's Silly Flirtation With Negative Interest Rates
Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg View) May 13, 2020
Sub-zero rates aren't the way to get banks to lend more money. They should only be used if nothing else manages to stimulate the economy.

Messages from "Fiscal Space"
Jayati Ghosh (Project Syndicate) May 13, 2020
While many advanced economies increase government spending to unprecedented levels to mitigate the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, most developing countries have struggled to marshal even relatively small rescue packages. These differences reflect a systemic flaw in the global economy.

Emerging Economies Need New Finance, Not Moratoriums
Mauricio Cárdenas (Project Syndicate) May 13, 2020
A comprehensive debt-repayment freeze could be counterproductive for emerging economies that currently retain access to financial markets. Instead, leading central banks should establish a special-purpose vehicle that would act as a bridge between the vast amount of available global liquidity and these countries' growing financing needs.

Managing the Coming Global Debt Crisis
Barry Eichengreen (Project Syndicate) May 13, 2020
The economic crisis that has befallen emerging and developing economies is being treated as temporary, with a moratorium on interest payments and a promise of commercial credits remaining valid only through the end of the year. In other words, the policy response is woefully inadequate to these countries' situation.

The EU response to the coronavirus crisis: How to get more bang for the buck
Massimo Bordignon and Guido Tabellini (VoxEU) May 13, 2020
The subsidiarity principle implies that the EU should do what member countries cannot do by themselves. In the context of the current crisis, this implies issuing very long-term debt. This column argues that this could be achieved by endowing the new EU Recovery Fund with genuinely own EU sources of revenue. Providing the EU with revenue from EU own tax bases would also improve the quality of EU expenditures, and could pave the way to the creation of a euro area fiscal capacity.

The Collateral Channel of Monetary Policy: Evidence from China
Hanming Fang, Yongqin Wang, and Xian Wu (VoxChina) May 13, 2020
As a quasi-natural experiment to estimate the causal impact of the collateral-based unconventional monetary policy, we exploit the expansion of the collateral for the Medium-Term Lending Facility (MLF) in the interbank bond market on June 1, 2018 by the People's Bank of China. We also consider that many bonds are dual-listed in a largely segmented exchange market. We find that the policy reduced the spreads of the newly collateralizable, dual-listed bonds in the treatment market (the interbank market) by 42–62 basis points, compared to those in the control market (the exchange market). We also find that there is a pass-through effect from the secondary market to the primary market: the spreads of the new issuance of treated bonds in the interbank market were reduced by 54 basis points.

Government interventions to COVID-19 and the economy
Xiaohui Chen and Ziyi Qiu (VoxEU) May 13, 2020
The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted a vast spectrum of unprecedented government interventions. This column discusses the impact of various interventions on COVID-19 transmission dynamics and the associated economic consequences. Examining the variation in government policies, it finds that policies such as lockdown, school closure, centralised quarantine and mask wearing are effective in controlling the virus transmission. A series of scenario analyses suggest that countries may avoid lockdown by imposing school closures, mask wearing and centralised quarantine simultaneously to reach similar COVID-19 infection mitigation outcomes.

Modern health crises: Recession and recovery
Chang Ma, John Rogers, and Sili Zhou (VoxEU) May 13, 2020
Forecasting the progress and impact of COVID-19 is central to the planning of policymakers around the world. This column provides a historical perspective by examining the immediate and bounce-back effects from six post-war disease shocks. GDP growth contractions are immediate and sizeable, but vary across countries. Despite an immediate 'bounce back', GDP tends to remain below its pre-shock level for several years. The negative effect on GDP is felt less in countries with larger first-year responses in government spending, especially on health care, and the indirect effects on GDP growth from affected trading partners are also important.

Autonomy – not rules – may be the government's best weapon in the fight against corruption
Katie Parry, Oriana Bandiera, Michael Best, Adnan Khan, and Andrea Prat (VoxEU) May 13, 2020
Weak procurement systems can lead to high wastefulness and reduce the amount of resources government have for vital expenditures. This column examines the behaviour of 600 procurement officers in Pakistan and finds that the savings realised through giving them greater autonomy were considerably greater than from pay-for-performance incentive schemes, though this result did depend on the relative efficiency of the procurement officers and their monitors. This finding indicates that, counter-intuitively, the appropriate response to inefficiency and corruption may sometimes be less monitoring, not more.

The Post-COVID-19 World Will Be Less Global and Less Urban
Geoffrey Garrett (K@W) May 13, 2020
The pandemic will reverse the trends of globalization and urbanization, leading to profound longer-term costs.

China's Slow Economic Rebound from the Coronavirus Points to an Extended U.S. Slump
John Cassidy (New Yorker) May 13, 2020
Visitors have returned to Shanghai Disneyland. But even some of the stronger spots in the Chinese economy appear to reflect precautionary consumer behavior.

Only Saving Lives Will Save Livelihoods
Rajeev Cherukupalli and Tom Frieden (FA) May 13, 2020
The right way to understand pandemic economics.

Why Populists Understand Eastern Europe
Jaroslaw Kuisz and Karolina Wigura (FP) May 13, 2020
Liberals have changed the region for the better—but don't perceive its sense of loss.

The Death of the Central Bank Myth
Adam Tooze (FP) May 13, 2020
In recent history, central banks have had near-autonomy over monetary policy. That independence has been called into question amid the coronavirus pandemic.

Could the U.S. Economy Be Facing Deflation?
Jay H. Bryson and Shannon Seery (WF Econ Group) May 13, 2020
Some observers worry that the U.S. economy could be on the cusp of deflation, which is a sustained decline in the economy's overall price level. Although consumer price inflation is set to slow this year, the U.S. economy should skirt outright deflation. In this report, we discuss downside risks to our inflation outlook.

Now is not the time to worry about the UK debt burden
FT View May 14, 2020
Britain should spur recovery by avoiding tax rises and austerity.

The dangers of a US-China financial war
FT Vuew May 14, 2020
There are reasons for investors to shun some Chinese stocks. Coronavirus is not one.

Any Covid-19 vaccine must be a global public good
David Pilling (FT) May 14, 2020
The ugly battle for protective gear would be a sideshow compared to one over a vaccine.

Covid-19 looks like a hinge in history
Lawrence Summers (FT) May 14, 2020
The pandemic will be remembered alongside 1914 Archduke assassination and 1938 Munich Conference.

From peak China to China pique
George Magnus (FT) May 14, 2020
China's economy was already facing headwinds before the Covid-19 pandemic broke out. The crisis now turns it into an unpredictable and volatile power, says George Magnus.

G.D.P. Doesn't Credit Social Distancing, but It Should
Justin Wolfers (NYT) May 14, 2020
A better measure of economic growth would count our efforts to protect public health and refocus the debate about how to "reopen the economy."

Germany's New Coronavirus Thinking
WSJ May 14, 2020
Berlin tolerates more Covid-19 spread for the sake of reopening its economy.

Can Indian Manufacturing Capitalize on the Flight From China?
Sadanand Dhume (WSJ) May 14, 2020
Maybe, but New Delhi will have to get serious about reforms. Currently it lags far behind Vietnam.

Covid-19 tilts the future toward Asia
Scott Foster (AT) May 14, 2020
Asia returns to work while America struggles to regain its footing in what looks like a historical tipping point.

Has covid-19 killed globalisation?
Economist May 14, 2020
The flow of people, trade and capital will be slowed.

Turkey's defence of the lira has been unwise and ineffective
Economist May 14, 2020
The country is trying to strengthen its currency—at the expense of weaker banks.

March 23, 2020: The Day the US Economy Did Not Crash
Frank Vogl (Globalist) May 14, 2020
The day when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell rode in to rescue financial markets to prevent their complete freezing up could have entered our history books as another global mega-crash.

China's migrant workers need help in the economic downturn
Tianlei Huang (PIIE) May 14, 2020
Migrant workers, indispensable to China's economic achievements, have become the most vulnerable group suffering under the COVID-19 economic downturn. They need help from expanded social programs to sustain their livelihoods. Without that assistance, their weak condition will drag China's recovery.

Why restoring US leadership at the multilaterals is an important step for addressing COVID-19
George Ingram (Brookings) May 14, 2020
A range of recent articles and analyses have exposed the inadequacy of the U.S. international response to COVID-19 and made the case for a reassertion of U.S. global leadership. What has received insufficient attention is how with one stroke the U.S. can both promote our health security and assert our international leadership. That stroke is to make good on a decade of growing arrears—obligations that are past due—to the multilateral development banks (MDBs). This action would restore U.S. moral and financial leadership to organizations that are providing critical levels of funding and technical knowledge to help developing countries bolster their defenses against the pandemic.

India Needs to Fire More Bullets Now, Aim Later
Andy Mukherjee (Bloomberg View) May 14, 2020
The $62 billion in new money from Modi's anti-viral package isn't enough to stretch a safety net under economic disaster.

Good Economic News Is Coming and That's Bad
Michael R. Strain (Bloomberg View) May 14, 2020
A few rising indicators could obscure the urgent need for more government aid to the sinking coronavirus economy.

The WTO Is Dead. Long Live the WTO
David Fickling (Bloomberg View) May 14, 2020
Even before the coronavirus, the organization was hurtling toward the irrelevance that doomed its predecessors.

Everyone Wins from Vaccine Cooperation
Susan Athey, Kendall Hoyt, and Michael Kremer (Project Syndicate) May 14, 2020
The only way to develop and deploy a COVID-19 vaccine at the pace and scale that the current crisis demands is through international coordination. Unlike national-level strategies, a collective approach both minimizes the risks and maximizes efficiency.

Venture capital-backed innovation and recessions
Sabrina Howell, Josh Lerner, Ramana Nanda, and Richard Townsend (VoxEU) May 14, 2020
Governments worldwide have taken steps to bolster their venture capital sectors in response to the COVID-19 crisis. This column questions whether venture-backed innovation is particularly vulnerable to economic downturns, and finds that early-stage venture investment falls sharply during recessions. The quantity and quality of venture-backed innovation declines particularly for early-stage firms, underscoring the concerns that motivate such policy initiatives. Still, questions remain about the optimal design and public return of these expenditures.

Using perpetual bonds to finance the European Recovery Fund
Giancarlo Corsetti, Aitor Erce, and Antonio Garcia Pascual (VoxEU) May 14, 2020
Prominent voices propose financing the European Recovery Fund using joint perpetual debt. This column argues that there are gains from using European borrowing and lending as two separate policy levers. In a world of ultra-accommodative monetary policy, financing the Fund issuing debt at shorter maturities and passing those low interest rates onto member states through loans with low margin and with very long maturities is financially cheaper. Supporting the recovery through this maturity transformation would reinforce debt sustainability across the EU.

Funding pandemic relief: Monetise now
Refet Gürkaynak and Deborah Lucas (VoxEU) May 14, 2020
The current macroeconomic policy scene in advanced economiesis dominated by three interrelated challenges: rapidly meeting the unprecedented spending needs to respond to the COVID-19 crisis, while holding government debt to a sustainable level and avoiding deflation. This column argues that monetising some of the pandemic-related debt would be the best way to address all three issues simultaneously, even if it risks some future above-target inflation. It proposes a particular mechanism for debt monetisation, with the proceeds used to fund the partial replacement of lost wages through the banking system. The proposed mechanism effectively monetizes the cost of the programme, in contrast to central banks' current debt purchase programmes which, for the most part, have not yet resulted in monetisation.

The persistence of a COVID-induced global recession
Valerie Cerra, Antonio Fatás, and Sweta C. Saxena (VoxEU) May 14, 2020
As many countries enter deep economic downturns, many wonder about the shape and length of the recession, as well as the steepness of the recovery. Past recessions have left permanent scars on long-term growth, known as hysteresis. This column reviews the hysteresis academic literature to gain insights on the current crisis and the policies that should be put in place to minimise its long-term effects. Continued macroeconomic stimulus, where policy space exists, is needed using an array of instruments. Now is not the time to err on the side of caution when it comes to expansionary economic policies.

The Great Decoupling
Keith Johnson and Robbie Gramer (FP) May 14, 2020
Washington is pressing for a post-pandemic decoupling from China. But the last big economic split brought on two world wars and a depression. What's in store this time?

A Roadmap for the U.S. Labor Market
Jay H. Bryson (WF Econ Group) May 14, 2020
Employment in the United States has nosedived since February and the unemployment rate has soared to a post-World War II high. Sadly, it looks like further labor market weakness is in store for May. Although we look for employment to rebound and the unemployment rate to recede in coming months, it likely will take a number of years for the labor market to recover from its pandemic-induced meltdown.

Mining and metals can outperform in a post-pandemic world
Paul Robinson (FT) May 15, 2020
Sector needs to prove that margins are more important than volumes.

Modi the reformer reappears as coronavirus hits India's economy
Amy Kazmin (FT) May 15, 2020
Prime minister targets land, tax and labour laws but critics say focus needed on health.

The pandemic is killing the attraction of megacities
Camilla Cavendish (FT) May 15, 2020
You cannot be in the urban swing of things if there is no swing.

The ECB must shift to a wholesale acceptance of junk bonds
Jens van 't Klooster (FT) May 15, 2020
The Eurozone needs to soften its rules and accept high-yield debt as collateral – its mandate clearly allows it.

The Chinese Challenge to the U.S.-Israel Relationship
Douglas J. Feith (WSJ) May 15, 2020
Beijing brings investment dollars, but also tensions with America.

Why East beat West on Covid-19
Andrew Salmon (AT) May 15, 2020
East Asia has handled and contained the pandemic far better than the West on nearly all metrics.

Save markets to save the single market
Maria Demertzis (Bruegel) May 15, 2020
It's time for the EU to make quick and indispensable progress in forming a capital markets union.

Post-COVID Economy: Not the Way We Were
Geraldine Sundstrom (PIMCO) May 15, 2020
The COVID-19 crisis is likely to accelerate many underlying, secular disruptive forces already affecting economies and financial markets. This may only increase the difference between those companies, sectors, and countries that are being disrupted, and those that are acting more like disruptors. Distinguishing between the two is becoming crucial.

FDR's New Deal Worked. We Need Another One.
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) May 15, 2020
Claims that the programs adopted in the 1930s lengthened the Great Depression don't hold up.

Flat Oil Futures Should Keep Frackers Quiet
Liam Denning (Bloomberg View) May 15, 2020
The bounce from negative prices doesn't go far enough to justify fresh drilling.

After Beating Coronavirus, South Africa Must Face an Older Foe
Bobby Ghosh (Bloomberg View) May 15, 2020
President Cyril Ramaphosa's lockdown worked. Now he must successfully re-open a long-troubled economy.

Whither Oil Prices?
José Antonio González Anaya (Project Syndicate) May 15, 2020
It is impossible to say what will happen to oil prices as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and global recession. But there are signs that, though demand will take time to recover, supply may be adjusted faster than during past crises.

Preventing a COVID-19 Food Crisis
Carmen M. Reinhart and Rob Subbaraman (Project Syndicate) May 15, 2020
The pandemic is amplifying the risk of a world-wide food-price spike, which would trigger outright crises in many developing countries. Governments must therefore work together to address disruptions to food supply chains and prevent food protectionism from becoming the post-pandemic new normal.

The EU's Nullification Crisis
Daniel Gros (Project Syndicate) May 15, 2020
By challenging the right of an EU court to rule on the European Central Bank's monetary-policy decisions, Germany's Federal Constitutional Court most likely has picked a fight it cannot win. Like South Carolina in 1832, Germany's judges may soon find that they have less political support than they think they do.

Killer Corruption
John Prendergast (Project Syndicate) May 15, 2020
According to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, up to 25% of global procurement funding is lost to corruption. With billions of dollars flowing into developing countries to support their COVID-19 responses, there is an urgent need to ensure that the money goes where it is intended.

Germany's Constitution and European Sovereignty
Hans-Werner Sinn (Project Syndicate) May 15, 2020
The recent controversial ruling against the European Central Bank by Germany's Federal Constitutional Court could not have come at a worse time. But it was a necessary reminder that the EU is a community based on the rule of law, and that only its sovereign member states can develop it further.

Corona policy according to HANK
Marcus Hagedorn and Kurt Mitman (VoxEU) May 15, 2020
Heterogeneous-Agent New Keynesian models offer new perspectives on fiscal and monetary policy interaction in the euro area. The current question is whether ECB measures are predominantly motivated to ensure price stability (with fiscal consequences a side effect), or whether they are motivated by an overriding economic policy objective. This column presents evidence that, according to the HANK models, there is no distinct separation between fiscal and monetary policy. Fiscal policy is an important determinant of inflation at the zero lower bound, and properly designed asset purchases are an effective instrument to satisfy the price stability mandate.

Consumer responses to the COVID-19 crisis
Asger Lau Andersen, Emil Toft Hansen, Niels Johannesen, and Adam Sheridan (VoxEU) May 15, 2020
The COVID-19 pandemic has had drastic effects on consumer spending across the world. This column presents evidence based on bank account transaction data from Denmark showing that total card spending was reduced by 25% during the early phase of the crisis. The drop was mostly concentrated on goods and services whose supply is directly restricted by government interventions, suggesting a limited role for spillovers to non-restricted sectors through demand in the short term.

The labour market policy response to COVID-19 must leverage the power of age
Shigeru Fujita, Giuseppe Moscarini, and Fabien Postel-Vinay (VoxEU) May 15, 2020
Current government policies addressing the COVID-19 crisis protect the hardest-hit workers and jobs. The world economy, however, is already experiencing needs for employment reallocation towards certain essential activities. This column proposes a policy framework to resolve the trade-off between protecting valuable match-specific capital and restoring the desired pace of healthy reallocation. The scheme leverages the distinct age profile of COVID-19 health risks, matching capital, and worker reallocation, by tailoring furlough subsidies, wage subsidies, and unemployment insurance to worker age.

Oil Price Crash Revives Fossil Fuel Divestment Campaigns
Jacob Wallace (FP) May 15, 2020
Climate activists say this is the moment for colleges and major institutions to dump their investments.

Have Investors Lost Their Minds?
John Cassidy (New Yorker) May 15, 2020
Small investors appear persuaded that the stock markets is headed for a "V"-shaped recovery. But history tells a more complicated story.

Keep Cautious and Carry On
Nick Bennenbroek and Jen Licis (WF Econ Group) May 15, 2020
The United Kingdom is the latest major economy to report the negative effects of COVID-19 on economic activity. Q1 GDP fell 2% quarter-over-quarter, with weakness in the services and industrial sector. In addition, March monthly GDP was very soft, falling 5.9% month-over-month, largely guaranteeing another sizable contraction in the second quarter.

Paying for the Covid-19 pandemic will be painful
Willem Buiter (FT) May 16, 2020
Interest rates will not stay low forever; spending cuts and higher taxes will be needed.

Why prudent investors should start paying up for inflation protection
Michael Mackenzie (FT) May 16, 2020
The question is whether central banks can persuade markets they are truly independent.

Why the pandemic could eventually lower inequality
Economist May 16, 2020
History suggests it could precipitate shifts towards a more equal income distribution.

Creative destruction in times of covid
Economist May 16, 2020
Is now the time for entrepreneurial true grit?

The Federal Deficit Is Setting New Records as Spending Explodes
Ryan McMaken (Mises Wire) May 16, 2020
US government debt is spiraling upward, with debt-to-GDP rising to World War II levels. How long can this last?

COVID 19 Today and China's Great Famine
César Chelala (Globalist) May 16, 2020
Are there any lessons to be learned from China 60 years ago for today's world, which is facing the worst pandemic of the past 100 years?

The need to issue long-dated gilts
Charles Goodhart and Duncan Needham (VoxEU) May 16, 2020
The COVID-19 crisis presents a multi-faceted challenge to policymakers. A combination of declining commodity prices, the rise in unemployment, and emergency state spending are all set to create challenging economic conditions, even as the pandemic itself subsides. This column argues that one mechanism that could help control long-run inflation levels is the issuance of long-dated gilts. This would also help to protect the young and unborn generations from the threat of resurgent inflation, which could lead to a massive rise in their future debt service requirements.

Democratic tipping points
Antonio Ciccone and Adilzhan Ismailov (VoxEU) May 17, 2020
Persistence of democratisation following transitory economic shocks plays an important role in the theory of political institutions. This column tests the theory of democratic tipping points using rainfall shocks in the world's most agricultural countries since 1946. Negative rainfall shocks have a strong and transitory effect on agricultural output, but a persistent positive effect on the probability of democratisation even after ten years. These findings suggest that even if it were short-lived, the COVID-19 crisis is likely to tip the scales against some authoritarian regimes and lead to persistent democratisation.

The WTO is needed today as much as ever
FT View May 17, 2020
A strong economic recovery will depend on preserving a robust global trading system.

Flood of bankruptcies must not overwhelm the recovery
FT View May 17, 2020
Policymakers should enable companies to restructure so they can survive.

America must step up to retain its economic might
David McCormick (FT) May 17, 2020
US needs to leverage its potential in global power struggle.

Big Tech's viral boom could be its undoing
Rana Foroohar (FT) May 17, 2020
The industry might seem unstoppable in this crisis, but ultimately it will be curbed.

Oil Becomes a Risky Game for Saudis
Karen Elliott House (WSJ) May 17, 2020
Lower prices put U.S. producers at a disadvantage, but they also cost Riyadh and imperil ties with the U.S.

Trump's failure of leadership makes a feeble economy and resurgent virus more likely
Robert Samuelson (WP) May 17, 2020
We are a long way from a policy that treats both the economy and the coronavirus.

Growth, interrupted: COVID-19 and China's 2020 economic outlook
Justin Yifu Lin (EAF) May 17, 2020
China's options for responding to the economic challenges imply that China can still achieve GDP growth of 3-4 per cent in 2020 despite IMF forecasts that global growth will change by a similar amount in the opposite direction.

Is This Year 1 of an Economic 'Lost Decade'?
Moisés Naím (Brink) May 17, 2020
The latest economic data from the IMF suggests that coronavirus and the subsequent lockdowns will cause global GDP to shrink by at least 3% this year. The economy's eventual recovery in context.

Downhill from Peak Globalization: When Will It End?
Lex Rieffel and Stephan Richter (Globalist) May 17, 2020
The world has encountered a series of shocks over the past 15 years. This should lead to more realistic expectations about the timetable for further globalization moves.

Americans Have No Clue What's Next on Inflation
Brian Chappatta (Bloomberg View) May 17, 2020
The once-stable outlook appears to have shifted drastically among U.S. households.

The EU must retreat to survive
Gideon Rachman (FT) May 18, 2020
For both pragmatic and democratic reasons, it would be lunacy to sue the German government.

The jobs at risk of extinction
Patti Waldmeir (FT) May 18, 2020
How Covid-19 is changing the way we work and earn.

Why banks should raise equity to get through this stress
Patrick Jenkins (FT) May 18, 2020
Even if banking system's protections are double or triple those of 2008, things could easily be three times as bad.

Crisis in Europe: von der Leyen's audacious bid for new powers
Sam Fleming, Jim Brunsden and Michael Peel (FT) May 18, 2020
Commission president must bridge bitter divides over EU plan to rebuild the economy.

A basic income scheme for the developing world
Monica de Bolle (FT) May 19, 2020
If Brazil's scheme became permanent it would set a global example, as 'bolsa familia' did in the 2000s.

The U.S. Doesn't Need a New Cold War
Robert B. Zoellick (WSJ) May 18, 2020
Proponents of heightening the conflict with China understate the diplomatic successes of recent years.

US: A Country Rooted in Unfairness
George R. Tyler (Globalist) May 18, 2020
The COVID 19 pandemic is highlighting U.S. shareholder capitalism's gross inequities.

Making Economies More Resilient to Downturns
John Bluedorn and Wenjie Chen (IMF) May 18, 2020
Rules-based fiscal stimulus can be highly effective in countering a downturn.

US-China phase one tracker: China's purchases of US goods
Chad P. Bown (PIIE) May 18, 2020
Through March 2020, China's year-to-date total imports of covered products from the United States were $19.8 billion, compared with a prorated year-to-date target of $43.2 billion. Over the same period, US exports to China of covered products were $14.4 billion, compared with a year-to-date target of $35.7 billion.

The 2020 US private saving boom: An unexpected result of COVID-19
Joseph E. Gagnon (PIIE) May 18, 2020
Federal cash transfers in the COVID-19 pandemic are going to millions of American families who cannot or will not spend all of that money in the current fraught environment. As a result, the US net private saving rate in 2020 will be the highest since World War II. The economic significance of this large amount of savings is unclear. But it could mean that, as restrictions on business and personal activities are relaxed in coming months, aggregate demand will rise, accelerating economic recovery but causing a temporary uptick in inflation to the extent that demand exceeds aggregate supply.

Which jobs are most at risk because of COVID-19?
Daniel Garrote Sanchez, Nicolas Gómez Parra, Çaglar Ozden, and Bob Rijkers (Brookings) May 18, 2020
Effective policies to minimize job losses in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic require knowing which jobs are at most risk. While almost all European economies are under a lockdown, not everyone will suffer to the same extent. Those who can work from home, whose jobs do not require face-to-face interaction with others, or are in essential industries can more easily continue to earn a living. In contrast, those whose jobs are nonessential or cannot be performed from home are facing the largest income losses.

How Will COVID-19 Impact Brexit? The Collision of Two Giant Policy Imperatives
Rebecca Christie (Brink) May 18, 2020
The U.K. must decide whether and how to extend the transition period for Brexit. Negotiating a whole new trade deal in less than a year was already ambitious; COVID-19 adds another cause for delay on top of what was already a daunting political task. But the U.K. insists it will not ask for or accept an extension in June, the current deadline for establishing such measures.

Central Banks Have Let the Genie Out of the Bottle
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg View) May 18, 2020
If anyone knows how hard it is to roll back extraordinary monetary support, it's Japan.

How People Re-Engage in the Economy Matters
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) May 18, 2020
Overcoming segmentation and information failures are essential for a sustainable recovery from the coronavirus.

Coronavirus Debt Isn't as Scary as Government Bungling
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) May 18, 2020
Borrowing to battle the pandemic is manageable as long as the U.S. is well-run. There's no guarantee it will be.

Let Libor Survive the Virus to Die Another Day
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) May 18, 2020
Shifting trillions of dollars of securities to new benchmark interest rates is a distraction finance can do without for now.

Merkel and Macron Make a Stunning Coronavirus Proposal
Ferdinando Giugliano (Bloomberg View) May 18, 2020
If the Franco-German plan for a 500 billion-euro recovery fund isn't watered down, it could move the euro zone a bit closer to a fiscal union.

Options Market Signals a Dire Picture for Stocks
Ash Alankar and Myron Scholes (Bloomberg View) May 18, 2020
If history is any precedent, the equities market might be on the cusp of a reversal.

Why Indonesia's QE Is Terrifying
Shuli Ren (Bloomberg View) May 18, 2020
The central bank is loading up on bond purchases. But what works in developed markets doesn't necessarily apply here.

Coronavirus Bails Out the Oil Patch
Carl Pope (Bloomberg View) May 18, 2020
The fix is in for politically favored oil, gas and coal companies.

The Pandemic Is Shaking the Dollar's Supremacy
Benjamin J. Cohen (Project Syndicate) May 18, 2020
After three years of US President Donald Trump abusing America's dominant position in the global monetary and financial system, his administration's disastrous response to the COVID-19 pandemic will further erode faith in the dollar. And if the days of America's "exorbitant privilege" come to an end, so will much else.

Inequality and US household debt: Modigliani meets Minsky
Alina Bartscher, Moritz Kuhn, and Moritz Schularick (VoxEU) May 18, 2020
Household debt-to-income has quadrupled in the US since WWII. This column presents historical evidence suggesting that debt-to-income ratios have risen most dramatically for middle-class households with low income growth. Middle-class households have increasingly tapped into rising housing wealth to finance spending in excess of income. Home-equity based borrowing accounts for 50% of the increase in US housing debt and turned the middle-class into the epicentre of financial fragility.

An Unemployment Crisis after the Onset of COVID-19
Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau and Robert G. Valletta (FRBSF Econ Letter) May 18, 2020
The COVID-19 pandemic has upended the U.S. labor market, with massive job losses and a spike in unemployment to its highest level since the Great Depression. How long unemployment will remain at crisis levels is highly uncertain and will depend on the speed and success of coronavirus containment measures. Historical patterns of monthly flows in and out of unemployment, adjusted for unique aspects of the coronavirus economy, can help in assessing potential paths of unemployment. Unless hiring rises to unprecedented levels, unemployment could remain severely elevated well into next year.

Virus lays bare Latin America's many woes
FT View May 19, 2020
Region needs evidence-based policy, not eccentric leadership.

Covid-19 has brought a role reversal for Latin America's populists
Michael Stott (FT) May 19, 2020
The pandemic is challenging many clichés about the region's economies.

Modi's coronavirus 'stimulus' for India leaves business and investors deflated
Amy Kazmin (FT) May 19, 2020
Measures include little immediate aid to avert sharp contraction this year, say economists.

Deflation is the real killer of prosperity
Stephen Moore (FT) May 19, 2020
The US is grappling with an economic malady that has gone unnoticed.

One Crisis Too Many: How the Coronavirus Pushed Germany to Shift Course
Steven Erlanger (NYT) May 19, 2020
Some may not like it back home, but in the twilight of her career, Angela Merkel joined with France to try to save the European Union.

The Covid-19 Deregulation
WSJ May 19, 2020
Trump looks to make waivers permanent to help the recovery.

Can democracy and high unemployment coexist?
Robert Samuelson (WP) May 19, 2020
This economic slump is so different from anything that has occurred since World War II that it defies easy categorization.

EU, China investment pact in Covid-19 jeopardy
David Hutt (AT) May 19, 2020
Pandemic crisis has caused a breakdown in trust as both sides resort to nationalistic postures that could scupper a long-sought deal

New results from the International Comparison Program shed light on the size of the global economy
Haishan Fu and Nada Hamadeh (WB) May 19, 2020
Today's release of new economic indicators from the International Comparison Program (ICP) is a crucial step in the right direction. The new report, Purchasing Power Parities and the Size of World Economies: Results from the 2017 International Comparison Program, offers an analysis of the global economy prior to the emergence of COVID-19. The report, and the data and indicators underlying it, will serve as a baseline from which we can measure and understand the consequences of the pandemic on communities around the world.

Merkel's European Legacy
Jacob Kirkegaard (Globalist) May 19, 2020
In the twilight of her career, will the German chancellor manage to produce a grand European compromise between the Northern "frugals" and the Southerners?

Prepare for maximum disruption
Brian Caplen (Banker) May 19, 2020
Multinational production is going to be reorganised regionally. Banks needs to figure out what this means for their customers, especially SMEs.

How will COVID-19 impact Brexit? The collision of two giant policy imperatives
Rebecca Christie (Bruegel) May 19, 2020
The United Kingdom left the European Union on Jan. 31, 2020. Now, the U.K. must decide whether and how to extend the transition period, currently set to expire at the end of 2020.

New SDRs? That Pesky 85 Percent Approval
Nancy Birdsall (CGD) May 19, 2020
Where the math does not add up on SDRs and the United States, common sense and political will should. The world, after all, once looked to the US for leadership during a global crisis. Now the world anxiously waits to see if US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and, presumably, the White House will do the right thing and actually lead.

Can DFIs Be First Responders in a Crisis?
Nancy Lee (CGD) May 19, 2020
Development finance institutions and crises.

What makes the World Bank so influential—its money or its ideas?
Bradley Parks, Ani Harutyunyan, and Matt DiLorenzo (Brookings) May 19, 2020
We are living in an era of resurgent nationalism and rising skepticism about the value of multilateral institutions. Prior to his appointment as the president of the World Bank, David Malpass told the U.S. Congress that the principal beneficiaries of the World Bank were "the people who fly in on a first-class ticket to give advice to governments."

China's large-scale testing for COVID-19 may pave the way for a strong economic recovery
Nicholas R. Lardy and Tianlei Huang (PIIE) May 19, 2020
China has launched a massive program that seeks to test as many as 10 million residents of the single city of Wuhan, the epicenter of COVID-19 in China, in an effort to wipe out the coronavirus and reassure a nervous population that they can resume normal activities. If the program is successful, China will have tested as many people in a single city in a short period as the United States had tested cumulatively by mid-May, though some doubt the announced scale of the massive testing is achievable given the city's limited testing capacity.

Inflation Isn't Gone For Good
Clive Crook (Bloomberg View) May 19, 2020
The more you hear it's not a problem, the more worried you should be.

Covid-19 Will Expose the Ghosts in the U.S. Economy
Tyler Cowen (Bloomberg View) May 19, 2020
Even if they survive the lockdown, many U.S. businesses won't make it through the reopening.

Achieving a Sustainable Chinese Recovery
Adair Turner (Project Syndicate) May 19, 2020
As China puts the worst of the COVID-19 crisis behind it, reopens factories, and resumes trade with its neighbors, the country's leaders must strike the right balance between maintaining short-term growth and laying the foundations of future growth. Accelerating progress toward a low-carbon economy would be a good way to do that.

Spend Fossil-Fuel Subsidies on Pandemic Relief and the Poor
M. Chatib Basri, Rema N. Hanna, and Benjamin A. Olken (Project Syndicate) May 19, 2020
Many developing countries have long maintained fuel subsidies because they are politically impossible to abandon, owing to the sticker shock that the public encounters at the pump as soon as prices are floated. But now that oil prices have reached historic lows, this problem has all but disappeared.

The Big Failure of Small Government
Mariana Mazzucato and Giulio Quaggiotto (Project Syndicate) May 19, 2020
It is no coincidence that countries with mission-driven governments have fared better in the COVID-19 crisis than have countries beholden to the cult of efficiency. Effective governance, it turns out, cannot be conjured up at will, because it requires investment in state capacity.

Democracies Are Better at Managing Crises
Shlomo Ben-Ami (Project Syndicate) May 19, 2020
In a democracy, a crisis is a political test: a leader must retain or strengthen the public's trust, or risk being voted out in the next election. But in an autocracy, a crisis is a threat to the regime's legitimacy, which is why the official response is so often denial.

Gauging the impact of COVID-19 on market-based inflation expectations
Dirk Broeders, Gavin Goy, Annelie Petersen, and Nander de Vette (VoxEU) May 19, 2020
Inflation-linked financial instruments are widely used to infer market-based inflation expectations and inflation risk. Following the outbreak of COVID-19 and an unprecedented oil price shock, the euro five-year, five-year inflation-linked swap is currently hovering around an all-time low of just below 1%. This column shows that around 60% of the drop the swap rate since 2015 can be attributed to the inflation risk premium, while the inflation expectations component explains the remaining 40%. In addition, inflation option prices reveal that the distribution surrounding inflation expectations has shifted to the left since January 2020, suggesting that markets expect the outbreak of COVID-19 to be a persistent disinflationary shock.

Designing central bank digital currencies
Itai Agur, Anil Ari, and Giovanni Dell'Ariccia (VoxEU) May 19, 2020
Various central banks are currently weighing up the introduction of central bank digital currency. This column proposes a framework that captures the key features and studies the implications of such a payment system. Central bank digital currency can be designed with attributes similar to cash or deposits. Currency that closely competes with deposits would likely depress bank credit, while cash-like currency could lead to the disappearance of cash. The optimal central bank digital currency design hence trades off bank intermediation against the social value of maintaining diverse payment instruments. The currency could be interest-bearing, which may help alleviate this trade-off.

Resettlement location significantly affects integration outcomes of forced migrants
Sebastian Braun and Nadja Dwenger (VoxEU) May 19, 2020
The procedures for relocating forced migrants differ considerably across countries, and information about how resettlement locations within host countries affect integration outcomes remains scarce. And yet, the number of forced migrants around the world increased dramatically over the last decade and continues to grow. This column studies displaced Germans after WWII and finds they fared poorly when relocated to agrarian regions with high migrant density. The authors recommend that current resettlement policies avoid directing large concentrations of migrants to a limited selection of rural areas.

The Case for Reopening Economies by Sector
Jean-Philippe Bonardi, Arturo Bris, Marius Brülhart, Jean-Pierre Danthine, Eric Jondeau, Dominic Rohner, and Mathias Thoenig (HBR) May 19, 2020
Economic recovery doesn't have to come at the cost of public health.

The Future of the Dollar
Henry M. Paulson Jr. (FA) May 19, 2020
U.S. financial power depends on Washington, not Beijing.

Don't Let China Steal Your Steel Industry
Elisabeth Braw (FP) May 19, 2020
Beijing is rapidly becoming the dominant player in an industry vital to defense and technology companies. If the United States and Europe aren't careful, they will become dependent.

Only China Can Do It?
Todd Wang (YaleGlobal) May 19, 2020
Covid-19 responses show that democracy is vulnerable to authoritarianism,

Tea and capitalism
Andrew Liu (Aeon) May 19, 2020
The China tea trade was a paradox: a global, intensified industry without the usual spectacle of factories and technology

Soft Japanese Economy, Subdued Yen
Nick Bennenbroek and Jen Licis (WF Econ Group) May 19, 2020
Japan's first quarter GDP fell less than expected, although there were some concerning elements in the details of the report. Private sector activity was particularly weak, while we note that leading indicators are consistent with a much sharper decline in GDP in the second quarter.

Franco-German rescue plan is a big step forward
FT View May 20, 2020
Other states should back bold response to the EU's worst crisis.

Oil faces a stuttering, uneven return to normality
David Sheppard (FT) May 20, 2020
Petrol and diesel demand still far below pre-crisis levels and many challenges remain.

China's mixed message to the oil market
Michal Meidan (FT) May 20, 2020
Traders looking for clues will find the country's experience is hardly straightforward.

The eurozone's bailout fund remains unfairly toxic
Martin Sandbu (FT) May 20, 2020
Member states in need reluctant to tap new coronavirus facility despite its advantages.

Why inflation might follow the pandemic
Martin Wolf (FT) May 20, 2020
Governments should finance their debt at today's ultra-cheap rates with the longest possible maturities.

Lebanese prime minister: The coronavirus is pushing Lebanon toward a major food crisis
Hassan Diab (WP) May 20, 2020
We need a three-tiered response to prevent hunger in the Middle East.

China's reaction to the pandemic shows why the U.S. and its allies need a NATO for trade
Robert D. Atkinson and Clyde Prestowitz (WP) May 20, 2020
It is time for democratic, rule-of-law-nations to agree to come to each other's economic aid.

Coronavirus Shut Down the 'Experience Economy.' Can It Come Back?
David Gelles (NYT) May 20, 2020
Large-scale gatherings are on hold for the foreseeable future. That is taking a toll on the live events industry and society at large.

The Law of Supply and Demand Isn't Fair
Richard Thaler (NYT) May 20, 2020
In a crisis, consumers think it is outrageous to jack up prices of essential items, yet that social norm predictably leads to shortages.

Oil price revival is likely a false dawn
Tim Daiss (AT) May 20, 2020
Price upswing comes after worst month in oil market history and won't last as harsh economic realities start to bite

The European Union's SURE plan to safeguard employment: a small step forward
Grégory Claeys (Bruegel) May 20, 2020
The new EU instrument to mitigate unemployment risks during an emergency (SURE) is too modest to have a significant impact the COVID-19 crisis beyond being a first step in the overall recovery plan.

Migrant Remittances Will Plummet. Here Is What That Means for Global Development
Michael Clemens (CGD) May 20, 2020
Choking off investment and insurance for the poor.

Germany and France Move Closer to a Euro Bond
Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg View) May 20, 2020
Investors would snap up any new debt for a European Covid-19 recovery fund, so now it's just up to the politicians to make it happen.

The Robots-Are-Taking-Our-Jobs Threat Gets Real
Anjani Trivedi (Bloomberg View) May 20, 2020
The coronavirus is hastening the need for a labor force that doesn't get sick or locked down.

Winners and Losers This Time Are Different From 2008
Conor Sen (Bloomberg View) May 20, 2020
Housing, consumers and banks are holding up, while oil and big cities are in trouble.

BlackRock Made Emerging Markets. So It Can Break Them
Shuli Ren (Bloomberg View) May 20, 2020
Its push into bond ETFs helped channel billions of dollars into developing economies. Investors now have good reason to bail.

Germany and France Move Closer to a Euro Bond
Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg View) May 20, 2020
Investors would snap up any new debt for a European Covid-19 recovery fund, so now it's just up to the politicians to make it happen.

What Does China Really Want? To Dominate the World
Hal Brands (Bloomberg View) May 20, 2020
Stop debating Beijing's intentions and take Xi Jinping both seriously and literally.

Deterring the Debt Vultures in Africa
Daniel D. Bradlow (Project Syndicate) May 20, 2020
The COVID-19 pandemic threatens to make African countries even more vulnerable to aggressive sovereign-debt speculators. But the crisis also presents financial institutions with an opportunity to change the way they do business and play their part in helping the continent's economies to recover.

We Must Expand Debt Relief for Developing Countries
Josh Lipsky and Jeremy Mark (Project Syndicate) May 20, 2020
Before the COVID-19 pandemic struck, sovereign lenders were adamant about avoiding another major multilateral debt-relief effort. But the current crisis inevitably will force a reappraisal, and an extension of the current debt-service moratorium at least through 2021 should be the first step in that direction.

Why This Time Was Different
Carl Bildt (Project Syndicate) May 20, 2020
In 2003, the world contained the SARS epidemic to Southeast Asia and ended the crisis by that July. Based on the limited information currently available, four factors help to explain the difference between then and now.

Emerging Markets' Hidden Debt Risk
Mitali Das, Sebnem Kalemli-Özcan , Damien Puy, and Liliana Varela (Project Syndicate) May 20, 2020
As the COVID-19 crisis continues, understanding the extent of emerging-market firms' unhedged foreign-currency borrowing will be critical. Central banks and regulatory agencies, which have access to such data, should use it to anticipate the damage arising from currency depreciations and design policy responses accordingly.

Corporate Innovation and IPO Interventions
Lin William Cong and Sabrina T. Howell (VoxChina) May 20, 2020
The Chinese government has occasionally suspended IPOs, exogenously creating uncertainty about access to public markets for firms already approved to list. We show that suspension-induced delay reduces corporate innovation activity both during the delay and for years after listing.

Accounting for global COVID-19 diffusion patterns
Yothin Jinjarak, Rashad Ahmed, Sameer Nair-Desai, Weining Xin, and Joshua Aizenman (VoxEU) May 20, 2020
Remobilising workers without risking a COVID-19-related medical overload will require effective modelling to guide public policy. Applying multiple techniques, this column studies the factors engendering the empirical shape of mortality curves from the onset of the pandemic to local peaks, with a focus on how policy intensity interacted with structural variables. Accounting for global diffusion patterns, it finds that more stringent policies were associated with significantly lower mortality growth rates, which took longer to peak in countries considered more democratically free and those further from the equator.

Covid-19 and the future of democracy
Carl Benedikt Frey, Giorgio Presidente, and Chinchih Chen (VoxEU) May 20, 2020
Democracy has been in recession for over a decade and many fear that Covid-19 will accelerate this trend. This column analyses the stringency and effectiveness of various countries' policy responses to Covid-19. While autocratic regimes tend to take more stringent policy measures, such measures tend to be less effective in reducing mobility in autocratic countries compared to democracies. Comparing countries with a collectivist versus an individualist culture shows that the former have been more successful in taking measures to reduce mobility.

Post-COVID: Dealing with the emerging market debt overhang
Kevin Daly, Tadas Gedminas, and Clemens Grafe (VoxEU) May 20, 2020
Although the COVID-19 crisis is a global phenomenon, emerging market economies are in a weaker position than developed economies to absorb its fiscal costs. This column assesses the impact of the crisis on government deficits and debt levels in emerging markets, and the fiscal adjustments that are likely to be required in the aftermath of the crisis. The findings suggest that median government debt will rise by around ten percentage points of GDP and that most emerging economies will face painful post-crisis adjustments. The results also imply a strikingly wide range of outcomes across emerging economies around the world.

Credit during a crisis: The bond lending channel of monetary policy
Olivier Darmouni, Oliver Giesecke, and Alexander Rodnyansky (VoxEU) May 20, 2020
The share of firms' borrowing from bond markets has been rising globally. This column argues that euro area companies with more bond debt are disproportionately affected by surprise monetary shocks, compared to firms with mostly bank debt. This finding stands in contrast to the predictions of a standard bank lending channel and points toward frictions in bond financing. This provides lessons for the conduct of monetary policy in times of hardship such as COVID-19, when the corporate sector suffers from liquidity shortages.

Could China's Digital Currency Unseat the Dollar?
Aditi Kumar and Eric Rosenbach (FA) May 20, 2020
American economic and geopolitical power is at stake.

Are the Germans Edging Closer to True Fiscal Union?
Keith Johnson (FP) May 20, 2020
In a striking reversal, Merkel joins with France in recommending a euro fund that could be a timid first step toward greater integration.

Food Price Spikes and Social Unrest: The Dark Side of the Fed's Crisis-Fighting
Ore Koren and W. Kindred Winecoff (FP) May 20, 2020
Emergency monetary policies produce an unintended consequence: rising food prices around the world.

Negative interest rates are a tool, not a gift
FT View May 21, 2020
Monetary loosening has a role in crisis-fighting — but fiscal policy needs to do more.

The UK needs to extend its EU transition period
FT View May 21, 2020
With or without a trade deal, the virus-hit economy would face extra burdens.

The EU's fate rests on Germany's identity crisis
Philip Stephens (FT) May 21, 2020
Old tensions endure between ideas of a German Europe or a European Germany.

EU recovery fund is a historic step, almost
John Springford (FT) May 21, 2020
Frugal states may block needed transfers to the south but there is a way forward.

Halt bank dividends and buybacks now
Kristalina Georgieva (FT) May 21, 2020
Shareholders who sacrifice now will prosper when growth restarts.

Why the Merkel-Macron plan could be a very big deal for Europe
Jens Nordvig (FT) May 21, 2020
Markets could move substantially if EU backs the duo's new 'recovery fund'. P>How Long Will It Take for the Economy to Recover?
Spencer Bokat-Lindell (NYT) May 21, 2020
Paul Krugman thinks it could be quick. But he also thinks Paul Krugman could be wrong.

Why 'Made in Vietnam' won't replace 'Made in China'
David Hutt (AT) May 21, 2020
As US seeks to decouple from China, it's a reach to think Vietnam will easily become the world's next factory floor.

Asian century began in May 2020
David P. Goldman (AT) May 21, 2020
Region has emerged as an economic zone as closely integrated as the European Union.

Sovereign-wealth funds face lean years
Economist May 21, 2020
Revenues have fallen, and governments are eyeing their riches.

Countries should seize the moment to flatten the climate curve
Economist May 21, 2020
The pandemic shows how hard it will be to decarbonise—and creates an opportunity.

A Global Race to the Bottom: How Central Banks Are Responding to the COVID Crisis
Brendan Brown (Mises Wire) May 21, 2020
Now, more than ever, we're in uncharted waters when it comes to central banks and monetary policy. Economist Brendan Brown takes a look at where we are and what the future might hold for central banks' race to the bottom.

Europe's latest step toward fiscal integration
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE) May 21, 2020
The elusive goal of establishing collective European responsibility for funding the battle against the COVID-19 pandemic got a big boost this week with an endorsement from German chancellor Angela Merkel and French president Emmanuel Macron. In a joint announcement on May 18, the two leaders stole the limelight from the European Commission, declaring their agreement on a far-reaching proposal for the new €500 billion EU Pandemic Recovery Fund backed by joint indebtedness. It was another step in the "Hamiltonian moment" in Europe of "joint struggles addressed with joint expenditure" in the face of dire necessity.

Prospects for US-UK trade accord are daunting
Gary Clyde Hufbauer (PIIE) May 21, 2020
Undeterred by the COVID-19 pandemic, the United States and the United Kingdom kicked off their first round of trade negotiations on May 5. The initial talks are scheduled to last for two weeks. Both sides claim they want an ambitious high-standard agreement, but some serious disagreements must be resolved to reach this lofty goal. London's red lines on agriculture and digital trade, and its environmental aspirations, foretell a rough road ahead.

Adjusting monetary policy rules for temporary layoffs from COVID-19
Christopher G. Collins and Simon Potter (PIIE) May 21, 2020
Unemployment in the United States has rocketed up to nearly 15 percent in April and is heading even higher, confronting policymakers at the Federal Reserve with an unprecedented challenge. Since 1977, Congress has given the Fed a so-called dual mandate of maintaining both price stability and maximum employment. But what if the unemployment rate is only temporary, as many if not most workers believe? How should the Fed strike a balance under these circumstances? In the April household survey 18 million Americans assessed that their unemployment was temporary in nature. Whether or not this personal assessment is accurate is a crucial question but not for how the Fed should react in the near term.

The Economic Impact of COVID-19 around the World: Remittances, Updated Growth and Poverty Projections, and the Reintroduction of Barter in Fiji
David Evans and Amina Mendez Acosta (CGD) May 21, 2020
As we reach 4.79 million cases of coronavirus infection and more than 318,000 deaths around the world, low- and middle-income countries continue to wrestle with the economic fallout from the pandemic and the responses to it. Food supply disruption, rising poverty, and deteriorating industries remain top concerns, as countries consider "exit strategies" for reopening business and lifting lockdowns in a bid to avoid the worsening economic crisis. Here is a roundup of the most recent analysis from Africa, Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, and Latin America and the Caribbean, divided into sections: growth and income analysis, sector and sub-population analysis, economic policy responses, and commentary.

What Will the Post-COVID-19 Global Order Look Like?
Richard Haass (Brink) May 21, 2020
After months of quarantines, some countries are beginning to shift out of confinement, but the world we knew is already a thing of the past. The ripple effects of COVID-19 look set to change global trade, politics and economics.

Protecting our economy and our health in a pandemic
Carol Graham and Benjamin Miller (Brookings) May 21, 2020
Desperation and social isolation were already prevalent in the United States before COVID-19. The pandemic will only exacerbate these issues at a time when the country's social safety nets are fragile and Americans are being forced into isolation for public safety.

Banks Get a Glimpse of the Post-Coronavirus Future
Elisa Martinuzzi (Bloomberg View) May 21, 2020
The pandemic has accelerated the shift to digital banking by two years, says McKinsey. The finance industry needs to seize this opportunity.

The Financial Part of the Covid Crisis Isn't Over
Kathryn Judge (Bloomberg View) May 21, 2020
Officials must prepare for a second shock.

This Recovery Is Doomed Before It Even Begins
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg View) May 21, 2020
As swiftly as lockdowns were imposed across Asia, the process of lifting them will be slow and uneven.

For Markets, It's the Economy's Direction That Matters
Tim Duy (Bloomberg View) May 21, 2020
Everyone knows the recession will be deep. But the question is whether the broad data is showing incremental improvement.

No, India Doesn't Need a Bigger Stimulus
Mihir Sharma (Bloomberg View) May 21, 2020
For now, it's more important for the government to keep things stable until it's clear how best to intervene.

Metals Can Leap Over the Oil Slick
Clara Ferreira Marques (Bloomberg View) May 21, 2020
Infrastructure plans to be outlined by the NPC and the prospect of green stimulus are creating a rosier outlook.

Time for a Selective Debt Jubilee
Willem H. Buiter (Project Syndicate) May 21, 2020
With a global depression looming, no country will be able to avoid the need for massive stimulus spending and the explosion of debt that will come with it. While advanced economies have creative options for managing these claims, it is already obvious that developing countries will need a more radical solution.

Modi's Performance and the Tragedy of India's Poor
Pranab Bardhan (Project Syndicate) May 21, 2020
If Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had wanted to organize an effective response to the COVID-19 crisis, there is no secret as to what he could have done. The problem is that the best policies would have been much more politically difficult than putting on a show of bravery and boldness.

Learning the Lessons of the Pandemic
Javier Solana (Project Syndicate) May 21, 2020
Many fear that the pandemic invites national withdrawal, but the world's scientists are showing us a better way forward. They are not only putting their research at everyone's disposal, but also modeling a cooperative way of working that enables them to produce more and better output.

Europe's Hamiltonian Moment
Anatole Kaletsky (Project Syndicate) May 21, 2020
The proposed sum for the recovery fund proposed by French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel is small change in an era when politicians and central bankers conjure up trillions almost daily. But, if adopted, the proposal might be remembered as the moment when Europe became a genuine political federation.

The Digital Path to Citizen-Centric Finance
Achim Steiner and Maria Ramos (Project Syndicate) May 21, 2020
Global finance has become detached from people's needs and preferences. But by harnessing the disruptive potential of digital technologies, the world can create a fairer, more inclusive financial system that propels sustainable development.

Solutions to deal with emerging economies' dependence on external funding
Alicia García-Herrero and Elina Ribakova (VoxEU) May 21, 2020
The spread of COVID-19 and its associated impacts have again brought into focus the dependence of emerging market economies on external financing. This column analyses the factors that put emerging economies at an increased risk of a sudden reduction in dollar liquidity as a consequence of the COVID-19 outbreak. Based on this analysis, it reviews the key tools at the disposal of emerging economies, the Fed, and the IMF to address this problem. It concludes by offering some policy recommendations on the pecking order that could be followed to potentially shield the emerging economies from the dollar shortage problems related to COVID-19.

COVID-19: A Reckoning for Russia's Asian Energy Aims
Nicholas Trickett (Diplomat) May 21, 2020
As COVID-19 fundamentally disrupts the energy market, Russia's economic reliance on China deepens without much prospect for future growth.

In Indonesia, Will COVID-19 Trigger Another Asian Financial Crisis?
James Guild (Diplomat) May 21, 2020
History may not repeat, but it does rhyme.

Has the Coronavirus Disappeared Climate Politics?
Paul Hockenos (FP) May 21, 2020
Europe's pandemic bailouts are trying to save the continent's economy. Less clear is if they can save the planet.

The Death of Lebanon's Middle Class
Anchal Vohra (FP) May 21, 2020
A country with a proud history of trade and commerce is starting to crumble into permanent poverty.

A no-deal Brexit amid the pandemic would be disgraceful
Martin Wolf (FT) May 22, 2020
The wisest thing to do would be to reach a comprehensive free trade agreement with the EU.

Fears of Japanification spreading are misplaced
John Plender (FT) May 22, 2020
The country's quirks make similar deflation for the US and Europe a stretch.

Post-crisis infrastructure must be built with low carbon materials
>Lord Barker of Battle (FT) May 22, 2020
Poor procurement could undermine the mission for a green economic recovery.

Rock-Bottom Interest Rates May Be Here to Stay
Jeanna Smialek (NYT) May 22, 2020
Once the labor market begins to recover, the Federal Reserve's experience in the pre-pandemic, record-long economic expansion is likely to influence when its raises rates.

China paints a target on Hong Kong, but abandons one for growth
Economist May 22, 2020
The pandemic has weakened China's economy but not its leaders' desire to assert power.

COVID-19 Worsens Pre-existing Financial Vulnerabilities
Tobias Adrian and Fabio Natalucci (IMF) May 22, 2020
Vulnerabilities in credit markets, emerging countries and banks could even cause a new financial crisis.

Less gratitude, please. How COVID-19 reveals the need for migration reform
Marta Foresti (Brookings) May 22, 2020
One thing is clear: With COVID-19, we will all move much less, at least for a while. The virus has pretty much halted human mobility across the globe, and it looks increasingly likely that traveling across and between countries will remain restricted for the foreseeable future. From tourism to business travel and labor migration, the world will be a lot more sedentary.

Some Industries Won't Have a Reopening Comeback
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) May 22, 2020
Lifting lockdowns will revive many businesses. The same can't be said of traditional retailers, colleges and cinemas.

America Has Opted for a Bad Recession
Narayana Kocherlakota (Bloomberg View) May 22, 2020
The coronavirus dilemma isn't about lives versus the economy.

China Scrapped Its Growth Target. Good Riddance
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg View) May 22, 2020
These figures had outlived their usefulness and only fueled cynicism about accuracy.

Memorial Day Oil Market Asks 'Are We There Yet?'
Liam Denning (Bloomberg View) May 22, 2020
Crude inventories are down, but gasoline stocks are up, with holiday drivers likely scarce.

China Tests Global Diplomacy and Economy
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) May 22, 2020
The country risks nations' pushback as it moves ahead with its ambitions under the cover of Covid-19.

Italy Is Cycling Toward More Trouble
Ferdinando Giugliano (Bloomberg View) May 22, 2020
The country's generous bike subsidies raise the question of how it might spend the proceeds of any EU recovery fund. The "frugal four" are watching.

Africa's Hour of Need
Abebe Aemro Selassie (Project Syndicate) May 22, 2020
African governments urgently need additional external financing to help them mitigate the pandemic's economic impact. And with global interest rates as low as they are now, it is hard to think of a more opportune time to make such a commitment to Africa – or a more important investment for our planet's future.

China Is Its Own Worst Enemy
Brahma Chellaney (Project Syndicate) May 22, 2020
Had Chinese President Xi Jinping's communist regime been wise, it would have sought to repair the pandemic-inflicted damage to China's image by showing empathy and compassion to other countries. Instead, China has acted in ways that undermine its long-term interests.

The Rich World's Pandemic Imperative
Anne O. Krueger (Project Syndicate) May 22, 2020
While the advanced economies reckon with the costs of the COVID-19 lockdown phase, developing and emerging economies are facing an even deeper disaster. Without more coordinated multilateral support for indebted countries' budgets and health systems, the world will never overcome the pandemic.

Which Post-Pandemic Government?
Raghuram G. Rajan (Project Syndicate) May 22, 2020
Although the COVID-19 pandemic has shown why high-level coordination is sometimes necessary for managing emergencies, it has also underscored the risks of placing too much power in the hands of an incompetent central authority. The best approach is a middle path, with a slight bias in favor of decentralization.

Toward a Sustainable Recovery
Laurence Tubiana and Emmanuel Guerin (Project Syndicate) May 21, 2020
The conventional narrative about the course of the COVID-19 crisis is easy to understand, but ultimately incorrect. Rather than a cleanly schematic multi-phase process of emergency response and recovery, the crisis demands a comprehensive approach in which short- and long-term goals are aligned from the beginning.

Autonomy – not rules – may be a government's best weapon in the fight against corruption
Katie Parry, Oriana Bandiera, Michael Best, Adnan Khan, and Andrea Prat (VoxDev) May 22, 2020
Giving government procurement officers more leeway in decision-making over expenses could save billions.

Trade conflict in the age of Covid-19
Richard Baldwin and Rebecca Freeman (VoxEU) May 22, 2020
International trade has helped many nations get vital medical supplies during this pandemic, yet a number of new, protectionist initiatives have been taken or discussed which could disrupt global value chains. This column presents calculations showing that national manufacturing sectors all across the globe are highly interdependent, that these connections have risen since the 2008/9 crisis, and that China is pivotal in the network of dependencies. Given this, policies that seek to hinder supply-chain trade could prove costly.

Non-performing loans in Chinese banks
Karlo Kauko (VoxEU) May 22, 2020
Many observers have had a sceptical attitude towards Chinese banks' official disclosures of non-performing loans. A loan should be classified non-performing if the customer stops servicing the loan. Therefore, hidden problems in the loan portfolio would manifest themselves as a suspiciously low interest revenue. Using this simple idea, this column sheds light on the likely distribution of hidden non-performing loans in Chinese banks. It finds that loan quality problems became more commonplace in 2016. Surprisingly, hidden NPLs seem more common in strongly capitalised banks and large banks, but also in banks that rely on interbank funding.

The euro area in the age of COVID-19
Stephen Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz (VoxEU) May 22, 2020
Despite significant reforms over the last two decades, the euro area remains divided, both politically and financially. This column reviews the progress towards the completion of the European monetary union and highlights the remaining gaps. The euro area remains behind the US in terms of risk sharing, banking and capital markets union, and labour mobility. In addition, there is no common fiscal policy to provide support in response to regional shocks. The COVID-19 crisis is a severe test for the euro area, which should be met with renewed calls for solidarity and integration.

China Has Two Paths to Global Domination
Hal Brands and Jake Sullivan (FP) May 22, 2020
And a lot is riding on whether Washington can figure out which strategy Beijing has chosen.

Trump's China Trade Deal Is as Dead as Can Be
Jason Bordoff (FP) May 22, 2020
His much-touted trade victory has crashed and burned with the coronavirus pandemic.

Nuts, bolts and bay leaves: UK trade after Brexit
Delphine Strauss (FT) May 23, 2020
Scrapping the tariff code on confectionery is a sweet victory for Eurosceptics.

It is vital to distinguish between the disrupters and the disrupted
Michael Mackenzie (FT) May 23, 2020
Rapid recovery in technology stocks sends important signal for post-Covid world.

Penny-pinching consumers may spell trouble for recovery
Gavyn Davies (FT) May 23, 2020
US savings rates are pushing towards record highs.

The End of the New World Order
Ross Douthat (NYT) May 23, 2020
The coronavirus is provoking anti-globalist paranoia, but the real globalism is disintegrating.

China Is Too Rich to Splurge on Infrastructure
David Fickling (Bloomberg View) May 23, 2020
As countries get wealthier, additional spending is unlikely to deliver the same kick to growth. Take any ambitious plans with a degree of caution.

Coronavirus crisis bailouts won't work politically
Jeffrey Chwieroth and Andrew Walter (VoxEU) May 23, 2020
Although necessary, many of the economic policy responses to the COVID-19 crisis may end up damaging political incumbents in the medium and long term. This column presents evidence suggesting that voters expect great things from their leaders in deep crises. Yet the potential for great disappointment arises from the inevitable perceived inequities that will follow from the coronavirus crisis bailouts. As the pandemic exacerbates existing divisions within societies, the political costs predicted implies that only a minority of the most skilled political leaders are likely to survive this crisis.

Corporate sector vulnerabilities during the COVID-19 outbrea
Lilas Demmou, Guido Franco, Sara Calligaris, and Dennis Dlugosch (VoxEU) May 23, 2020
There is widespread concern that the COVID-19 induced liquidity shortages may cause firm bankruptcies on a large scale. This column examines the financial vulnerability of firms associated with confinement measures, and discusses the immediate steps that governments can take to reduce the risks of such crisis. Without policy actions, around 30% of European firms would face liquidity shortages after two month of confinement measures. A decisive public intervention, and especially the support to wage payments, is found to be crucial in order to avoid that the temporary shock implied by the COVID-19 crisis permanently scars the corporate landscape.

The modern era of globalisation is in danger
FT View May 24, 2020
International trade and co-operation makes economies more resilient.

After the lockdown, we need a reckoning
Arundhati Roy (FT) May 24, 2020
India's response to the pandemic has been a social catastrophe. Who will be held accountable?

China is pitting EU countries against each other
Wolfgang Münchau (FT) May 24, 2020
Italy's lurch towards full-blown Euroscepticism threatens the bloc's stability.

Small-time investing fuels real world consequences
Rana Foroohar (FT) May 24, 2020
Non-professionals have increased oil market volatility, and suffered from it too.

Australia: has the 'lucky country' run out of luck?
Jamie Smyth (FT) May 24, 2020
The pandemic is set to end the world's longest run of growth just as Canberra falls out with China, its key trade partner

Why Italy's debt matters for everybody
Robert Samuelson (WP) May 24, 2020
Another fiscal crisis would prolong and deepen the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression.

It is hard to imagine the field of political economy without Alberto Alesina
Lawrence Summers (WP) May 24, 2020
Political economy has become an important component of economics and political science. And Alberto deserves much of the credit.

4 Scenarios for the Post-Coronavirus Economy Through the Lens of Post-War Recovery
Timothy Colyer (Brink) May 24, 2020
Economists have been scrambling to model how the recession might unfold: Will the recovery be V-shaped or U-shaped? World War II and its aftermath as an alternative model for how the post-coronavirus-crisis economy might play out.

China's Crypto Is All About Tracing — and Power
Andy Mukherjee (Bloomberg View) May 24, 2020
Beijing will come out of the coronavirus crisis with a big first-mover advantage in official digital currency.

The World's Smartest Oil Traders Have Taken to the Seas
Julian Lee (Bloomberg View) May 24, 2020
Amid the oil glut, tankers everywhere are acting as temporary storage capacity. Where this crude ends up will have a big impact on the oil price.

COVID-19 and food protectionism
Alvaro Espitia, Nadia Rocha, and Michele Ruta (VoxEU) May 24, 2020
Although initial conditions in global food markets in the face of COVID-19 pandemic are good, disruptions across countries most affected could reduce global supplies of key staples. This column shows that escalating export restrictions would multiply the initial shock by a factor of three, with world food prices rising by up to 18% on average. Import food dependent countries, which are in large majority developing and least developed countries, would be most affected. Uncooperative trade policies could risk turning a health crisis into a food crisis.

The Coronavirus Is Exposing Wall Street's Reckless Gamble on Bad Debt
John Cassidy (New Yorker) May 24, 2020
The pandemic has brought the U.S. economy to a standstill and has frozen the financial underpinnings of corporate loans. Is a debt blowout on the horizon?

Bolsonaro's populism is leading Brazil to disaster
Gideon Rachman (FT) May 25, 2020
If life were a morality tale, the Covid-19 antics would turn Brazilians against the populist president.

'Never waste a crisis': inside Saudi Arabia's shopping spree
Andrew England and Arash Massoudi (FT) May 25, 2020
The $325bn Public Investment Fund has spent billions on overseas deals this year even as the kingdom's economy struggles.

Taking Care of Small Business
WSJ May 25, 2020
Congress can fix Treasury's mistakes on paycheck protection.

The most challenging test has yet to come: Sustaining a recovery
Gary Cohn (WP) May 25, 2020
There's no time partisan politics. Washington must focus on pragmatic solutions to support recovery.

The Recovery Needs a Supply-Side Push
Kevin Warsh (WSJ) May 25, 2020
The status quo before the pandemic won't return. New investment for new opportunities is crucial.

Imported Chips Make America's Security Vulnerable
Adam A. Scher and Peter L. Levin (WSJ) May 25, 2020
In response, the U.S. needs better engineering to detect sabotage and a move to more domestic production.

Trump's 'New Cold War' aims to hold China at bay
Richard Javad Heydarian (AT) May 25, 2020
The US and China are coming dangerously close to a collision in the South China Sea, a clash that could easily turn rhetoric and threats of a "New Cold War" into actual armed conflict. The sea moves come against the background of a rising war of words, with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi saying, "Some US political forces are taking hostage of China-US relations."

Argentina: Greed, Bonds, COVID and Your Cash
Frank Vogl (Globalist) May 25, 2020
Argentina has defaulted on its debts, again. Will the IMF and investors be merciful?

How Financial Triumphalists Destabilize the US Economy
Robert D. Atkinson (Globalist) May 25, 2020
As long as the Wall Street triumphalists' unreflected "why worry?" thinking remains the norm, the urgently needed pursuit of a U.S. economic reform agenda will go nowhere.

Reading tea leaves from China's two sessions: Large monetary and fiscal stimulus and still no growth guarantee
Alicia García-Herrero (Bruegel) May 25, 2020
The announcement of a large stimulus without a growth target indicates that China's recovery is far from complete.

The New Normal: Predictions for the Global Economy
Mohamed el-Erian (Brink) May 25, 2020
As the global economy emerges from lockdown, leaderships are grappling with a large number of momentous decisions about how to move forward, such as how to recover growth, how much structural adjustment to make and how long to maintain the financial support.

Hong Kong Finance Has a Security Blanket
Nisha Gopalan (Bloomberg View) May 25, 2020
The outlook for share sales belies anxiety over the city's future as China tightens its grip.

America's Delisting Threat Could Pay Off
Shang-Jin Wei (Project Syndicate) May 25, 2020
With legislation that would force all Chinese firms listed on US stock exchanges to submit to the same regulatory oversight as American firms, US policymakers are calling China's bluff. Far from confirming fears of a widespread delisting of Chinese firms, the law will likely improve the investment environment.

The Future of Global Power
Joschka Fischer (Project Syndicate) May 25, 2020
Although the Sino-American rivalry was escalating long before the COVID-19 crisis erupted, it has since been thrown into overdrive. But while both countries are pursuing a zero-sum vision of the future, only one is doing so with a long-term strategy.

Citizens of the World, Reunite!
Nancy Birdsall (Project Syndicate) May 25, 2020
The COVID-19 pandemic has reinforced destructive nationalism, but it has also highlighted the necessity of international collaboration. Global-minded citizens – starting in the United States – must now push their governments to cooperate and support multilateral institutions.

The role of global supply chains in the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond
Barthélémy Bonadio, Zhen Huo, Andrei Levchenko, and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar (VoxEU) May 25, 2020
Lockdown disruptions to manufacturing and shipping transmit shocks across countries through global supply chains. This column uses a simulation analysis to quantify these impacts and finds that the transmission of foreign lockdowns accounted for one-third of the total Covid-19-related GDP contractions. However, renationalisation of global supply chains is unlikely to help insulate economies from future pandemic-driven lockdowns. The reason is that eliminating reliance on foreign inputs would increase the reliance on domestic inputs. Since a pandemic-related lockdown would also affect domestic input suppliers, there is generally no resilience benefit from renationalising international supply chains.

When Will Capitalism End?
Alyssa Battistoni (Boston Rev) May 25, 2020
Rumors of the imminent death of capitalism have often been greatly exaggerated. But that doesn't mean we must give up on making things better.

Global trade faces negative record and structural shift
Jochen Moebert (DB Research) May 25, 2020
Based on DB's GDP forecast, due to the COVID-19 crisis annual global goods trade will shrink by 13.6% in 2020 and will recover by only 7.5% in 2021. Global goods trade is set to fall much heavier than during the GFC. The COVID-19 crisis might result in a reorganization of global value chains, at least in some sectors. For instance, there are requests to repatriate the provision of medicines and medical devices back to developed markets. However, a more balanced approach between today's global value chains and a complete repatriation could be continental production close to developed markets.

Now is the time to renew the German economy
FT View May 26, 2020
A recovery from the pandemic will require reforms and more investment.

India's draconian lockdown gives way to a sudden easing
Amy Kazmin (FT) May 26, 2020
With the economy collapsing, New Delhi is lifting restrictions — as the death toll rises.

Why the yen remains in lockdown
Leo Lewis (FT) May 26, 2020
Abnormal stability of currency reflects low investment conviction.

Will lockdown permanently change the way we shop?
Elaine Moore (FT) May 26, 2020
Clicking a few buttons and seeing items appear on your doorstep quickly becomes a hard habit to break.

Democracies have the edge in this crisis
Carl Benedikt Frey (FT) May 26, 2020
A 'democratic depression' seems unlikely — Covid-19 has exposed the flaws of authoritarianism.

There is a way forward for Argentina and its creditors
Robert Johnson (FT) May 26, 2020
Resolving the $65bn default also sets a precedent for myriad debt talks to come.

A Britain Bigger Than Brexit
WSJ May 26, 2020
Reviving the U.K. economy is now Boris Johnson's challenge.

The Fed Is Doing "Whatever It Takes" to Prop Up the Economy. That's a Very Bad Thing.
Samuele Murtinu and Peter G. Klein (Mises Wire) May 26, 2020
There's now no difference between monetary policy and other government programs designed to prop up firms, industries, and other favored groups. The Fed is simply another government planning agency.

An equity fund for a zombie-free and EU-wide recovery
Julia Anderson, Simone Tagliapietra and Guntram B. Wolff (Bruegel/Le Monde) May 26, 2020
Four guiding principles can help ensure a well designed EU equity fund.

Financing and debt management for emerging market economies
José Antonio Ocampo (Brookings) May 26, 2020
Two of the major issues in the economic management of the ongoing COVID-19 crisis are how to guarantee financing for emerging and developing countries, and how to manage their outstanding debts. The magnitude of the challenge is immense: Both the IMF Managing Director and UNCTAD have argued that the world needs $2.5 trillion of financing for these countries.

China's fiscal stimulus is good news, but will it be enough?
Tianlei Huang and Nicholas R. Lardy (PIIE) May 26, 2020
The Chinese government unveiled a bigger stimulus package worth at least 4.5 percent of GDP at the outset of the National People's Congress that began on May 22, after China experienced an unprecedented 6.8 percent year-over-year contraction in its GDP in the first quarter. Rather than repeating its old playbook of relying primarily on credit expansion as it did during the global financial crisis in 2008–10, this year's Government Work Report reveals that China is leveraging its fiscal policy to revive its economy suffering from the COVID-19 pandemic. This is good news for financial stability, though it may be too early to tell how successful the stimulus will be.

U.S. Nationalism Pits the Financial World Against China
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) May 26, 2020
Restrictions on international finance threaten to join those being imposed on people and trade.

China's Weaker Yuan Fix Is the Real Cold War Salvo
John Authers (Bloomberg View) May 26, 2020
Setting the currency at its cheapest versus the dollar since 2008 is a clearer signal of intent than tear gas in Hong Kong.

Taleb-Asness Black Swan Spat Is a Teaching Moment
Aaron Brown (Bloomberg View) May 26, 2020
Investors should recognize where the "Black Swan" author and a quant fund pioneer tend to agree rather than differ.

One Giant Leap for Europe?
Lucrezia Reichlin (Project Syndicate) May 26, 2020
The Franco-German proposal for a COVID-19 recovery fund is not quite the "Hamiltonian moment" that some have claimed. But, by reshaping the debate on risk mutualization and the benefits of transfers, it could set the stage for one.

Building South Korea's Post-Pandemic Economy
Lee Jong-Wha (Project Syndicate) May 26, 2020
South Korea has rightly received international acclaim for its COVID-19 response. It should now apply the same ambition and acumen to lay the groundwork for a more productive, sustainable, and inclusive economy.

How Courts Will Shape the Post-Pandemic World
James A. Goldston (Project Syndicate) May 26, 2020
People around the world are going to court to challenge long-standing injustices made visible by the COVID-19 pandemic. How judges respond will indicate whether the current reconsideration of neoliberal economics is likely to be a temporary blip or part of a more enduring transformation of law and policymaking.

Putting the Pep in PEPP
Reza Moghadam (Project Syndicate) May 26, 2020
For now, the European Central Bank's new €750 billion Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program is the only game in town for ensuring that the eurozone survives the COVID-19 crisis intact. The ECB should strengthen its bazooka to prevent the pandemic from causing even more damage.

The End of Europe's Chinese Dream
Mark Leonard (Project Syndicate) May 26, 2020
The COVID-19 crisis has pushed Europeans' strategic thinking about China – already shifting because of three developments – past the tipping point. After years of pursuing closer bilateral economic ties, Europeans suddenly realize that they have become dangerously dependent on Chinese trade and investment.

Beyond the pandemic: Eight proposals to revive the banking union
Ignazio Angeloni (VoxEU) May 26, 2020
In 2012, at the peak of the euro crisis, the leaders of the EU launched the banking union, involving the transfer of large parts of the banking regulatory and supervisory framework from the national domain to the euro area. This column introduces a new report which takes stock of this reform so far and proposes policy measures to improve its performance. It identifies three strategic goals for regulatory and supervisory action aimed at reviving the banking union: reduce overbanking among weaker players; favour consolidation and enhance efficiency among the stronger ones; strengthen balance sheets further, while encouraging area-wide diversification. The proposed measures cover, among other areas, the crisis management mechanism, with a revamp of the instruments and functions of the Single Resolution Board; banking supervision, to enhance the ECB's action in the micro and macroprudential fields; and the state-aid controls in the banking sector.

Tracking the COVID-19 consumption shock with card transactions
David Bounie, Youssouf Camara, and John W. Galbraith (VoxEU) May 26, 2020
Identifying the effect of COVID-19 pandemic on individuals and economies is a challenging task, as official economic data have, as they inevitably do, lagged events. Using billions of anonymised French bank card transactions from before and during the COVID-19 epidemic, this column examines changes in consumer mobility, anticipatory behaviour in response to announced restrictions, and the contrasts between the responses of online and traditional point-of-sale consumption expenditures to the shock. Based on responses tracked at hourly, daily, and weekly frequencies, it finds that consumers' use of the online shopping option has mitigated the overall impact of the shock.

Trade and travel in the time of epidemics
Hans-Joachim Voth (VoxEU) May 26, 2020
The Covid crisis has prompted the question of how much mobility a globalised world can and should have. This column, taken from a VoxEU eBook, breaks the question down into two elements: Is a massive restriction of mobility desirable? And is it feasible at all? The free exchange of goods and capital does not have to be restricted; only very few diseases are transmitted by contaminated goods. On the other hand, while the free movement of people also contributes to the advantages of globalisation, it is far less important for production. Severe restrictions may well be desirable and justifiable, bringing to an end a half-century of ever-increasing individual mobility.

Europe in the time of Covid-19: A new crash test and a new opportunity
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré and Beatrice Weder di Mauro (VoxEU) May 26, 2020
After a period of hesitation, governments in Europe have reacted forcefully to the Covid-19 pandemic with various strategies combining social distancing, testing/quarantining, and lockdowns. During a pandemic, however, coordination is key and repairing corporate balance sheet and the single market, as well as economic recovery constitute common goods. This column takes stock of the progress on addressing the crisis on the three axes of European-level support – monetary, banking and fiscal policy. The EU Recovery plan that is taking shape looks promising and could represent a significant sign of European solidarity and unity.

Hope for Africa During Covid-19 Pandemic
Eric Ekobor-Ackah Mochiah (YaleGlobal) May 26, 2020
The Covid-19 pandemic, while treacherous for economies, inspires self-reliance and innovation in Africa, particularly around food production.

The Pandemic's 5 Silver Linings
Stephen M. Walt (FP) May 26, 2020
The coronavirus has exacted a terrible toll—but some good things may come of it yet.

The COVID-19 Fiscal Multiplier: Lessons from the Great Recession
Daniel J. Wilson (FRBSF Econ Letter) May 26, 2020
The United States enacted a series of fiscal relief and stimulus bills in recent weeks, centered around the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act. The current fiscal response shares key similarities to the fiscal stimulus enacted during the Great Recession. Research over the past 10 years on the macroeconomic impact of that stimulus thus has important implications for the current fiscal response. The results point to a large potential impact on GDP.

China-US rivalry and threats to globalisation recall ominous past
Martin Wolf (FT) May 27, 2020
The world has been here before and knows that superpower rivalry only brings ruin.

How China's tensions could boost Hong Kong's exchange
Henny Sender (FT) May 27, 2020
HKEX's next chief executive will have to manage a tricky relationship with Beijing.

Business will be the loser in the US-China fight
Robert Armstrong (FT) May 27, 2020
Both nations are indispensable, so companies face a two-track world.

Covid-19 as a wakeup call: Three considerations going forward
Philippe Aghion and Shashwat Koirala (OECD Ecoscope) May 27, 2020
COVID-19 has prompted many difficult questions, chief among which is how we should re-envision the world after the crisis. This pandemic has revealed the shortcomings of our current social, economic and political systems, and addressing these will be central to rebuilding the post-coronavirus society. Notably, there are three, albeit non-exhaustive, areas that merit reflection: trade and value chains, social and health insurance, and civil society and trust.

COVID-19 and India: economic impact and response
Suman Bery (Bruegel) May 27, 2020
This piece was published the day before India imposed one of the world's strictest lockdowns in its response to the COVID-19 response. It remains relevant in assessing the government's actions in the ten weeks that have since passed.

COVID 19 in Latin America: Another Populist´s Rude Awakening
Martyna B. Linartas (Globalist) May 27, 2020
Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro isn't the only powerful politician in Latin America who is challenging fate with his management style for the pandemic.

Paul Krugman Is Pretty Upbeat About the Economy
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) May 27, 2020
In a Q&A, the Nobel-winning economist says the pandemic recovery probably won't be like the one from the last recession.

The European Union Is on the Brink of Historic Change
Ferdinando Giugliano (Bloomberg View) May 27, 2020
The Commission's $825 billion rescue fund would break many taboos, possibly paving the way for EU taxes and an EU treasury.

Three Ways Congress Can Save the Economy
Narayana Kocherlakota (Bloomberg View) May 27, 2020
These measures can work no matter what your ideology.

Can China's Spenders Lift the World?
Anjani Trivedi (Bloomberg View) May 27, 2020
There's no rescue coming from squeezed consumers who got used to rising incomes and more credit.

Covid-19 Blows a $400 Billion Hole in Global Energy
Liam Denning (Bloomberg View) May 27, 2020
Investment in oil and gas supply is in retreat, creating an opportunity to do things differently in the recovery.

Vaccines Should Not Be Immune to Market Forces
Tyler Cowen (Bloomberg View) May 27, 2020
Letting the wealthy pay for vaccines may help them reach a wider audience eventually.

Central Asia's Diverse COVID-19 Responses
Djoomart Otorbaev (Project Syndicate) May 27, 2020
Having recognized the COVID-19 threat early on, some of Central Asia's governments were slow to prepare for the coronavirus's eventual arrival. And with the pandemic's biggest, mainly economic challenges still to come to the region, the real problems may lie ahead.

What Should We Be Preparing For?
Ricardo Hausmann (Project Syndicate) May 27, 2020
In most emerging and developing countries, COVID-19 is causing an economic hurricane. It looks increasingly like a Category 5, but the international community and many national governments prepared for a tropical storm.

Regulating in a Pandemic
Howard Davies (Project Syndicate) May 27, 2020
Many regulatory changes have been introduced around the world in the last two months, understandably in haste, as national policymakers responded to the COVID-19 crisis with measures to keep credit flowing to affected economic sectors. Sadly, unlike after the 2007-09 global financial crisis, signs of international cooperation are few.

A Chronicle of a Lost Decade Foretold
Yanis Varoufakis (Project Syndicate) May 27, 2020
Many on the left still cling to the hope that the COVID-19 crisis will translate into the use of state power on behalf of the powerless. But those in authority have never hesitated to harness government intervention to the preservation of oligarchy, and a pandemic alone won't change that.

Ownership and Productivity in Vertically Integrated Firms in China
Loren Brandt, Feitao Jiang, Yao Luo, and Yingjun Su (VoxChina) May 27, 2020
This paper studies differences in the internal configuration and productivity in vertically integrated steel facilities in China using equipment-level information on inputs and output for each of the main stages in the value chain. At the facility level, we do not find statistically significant differences in productivity by ownership. This conceals important differences in the value chain: private firms outperform in pig iron and steel making but lag upstream in sintering. Inferior access to higher-quality imported raw materials and the use of less automated technology is a likely source of these differences.

U.S. Effort to Depart WTO Gathers Momentum
Keith Johnson (FP) May 27, 2020
Both political parties are demonizing the world trade body, but many experts warn that such a move could seriously set back U.S. power and prestige.

Commodity traders need to embrace a digital future
Etienne Amic (FT) May 28, 2020
The industry's reluctance to adopt technology platforms has made it vulnerable to fraud.

Britain's Brexiters still do not understand Europe
Philip Stephens (FT) May 28, 2020
The underlying assumption remains that the UK is somehow 'owed' privileged access.

Be wary of scapegoating 'just-in-time' supply chains
Alan Beattie (FT) May 28, 2020
Argument that diversifying or reshoring is necessary is easy to make but oversimplified.

Will coronavirus pandemic finally kill off global supply chains?
Alan Beattie (FT) May 28, 2020
With worldwide goods trade in freefall, companies and governments have many lessons to learn.

Successful investors learn from history
Simon Edelsten (FT) May 28, 2020
The current crisis has accelerated existing investment trends.

Bank of England's recovery forecasts are narrow
Chris Giles (FT) May 28, 2020
It has used 'scenario' to describe only its best predictions for the impact of Covid-19.

Why the Fed May Not Duck Inflation This Time
Phil Gramm and Mike Solon (WSJ) May 28, 2020
Banks' excess reserves limited the money supply after 2008, but looser rules today might give way.

America's Supply Chain Needs High-Skilled Migrants
Remco Zwetsloot and Will Hunt (WSJ) May 28, 2020
Trump's proposed restrictions on programs like H-1B would short-circuit attempts to bring advanced semiconductor manufacturing back.

Government handouts threaten Europe's single market
Economist May 28, 2020
Europe's bail-outs have a nasty side-effect: they threaten the single market.

What is the link between inflation and equity returns?
Economist May 28, 2020
Stocks are a decent inflation hedge in the long run, but over shorter horizons, there is an inverse relationship.

China's Two Sessions Meeting Affirms Low Expectations for Economic Growth
Alicia Garcia Herrero (Brink) May 28, 2020
Last week's Two Sessions gathering was an important moment to assess China's economic health — and its future direction. After delaying the gathering due to COVID-19, the world awaited the leadership's announcement (or lack thereof) of a GDP growth target for 2020. An explanation for these low exceptions for Chinese economy activity.

An Italian Bank Deal Still Makes Perfect Sense
Elisa Martinuzzi (Bloomberg View) May 28, 2020
Unione di Banche Italiane is trying to thwart a takeover by Intesa, but the coronavirus has made the deal more compelling.

Japan Is Going for Broke. Minus the Broke Part
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg View) May 28, 2020
The prospect of monetary and fiscal coordination means this stimulus bill will get paid. But central bank independence is also on the line.

China Isn't Using Its Currency as a Cold War Weapon
Shuli Ren (Bloomberg View) May 28, 2020
The yuan has every logical reason to weaken against the dollar right now. If anything, Beijing has been hands-off.

Jamie Dimon Captures the Stock Market Moment
Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg View) May 28, 2020
Central bank action has helped financial valuations recover, but unemployment and diminished consumption can't be magicked away.

Little-Known Data Show Signs of a Tech Bounce
Tim Culpan (Bloomberg View) May 28, 2020
Taiwan monthly sales hint at a global rebound from the first-quarter coronavirus meltdown.

Learning to Live with COVID-19
Ngaire Woods and Leany Lemos (Project Syndicate) May 28, 2020
Leaders in the Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul have devised a strategy for living with the virus, based on key indicators, expert consultations, and enforceable processes. And it has done so in full public view. There are lessons here for governments in richer countries that have yet to develop such a plan.

Who Has the World's Largest Economy?
Jeffrey Frankel (Project Syndicate) May 28, 2020
Once again, new economic readings from the World Bank's International Comparison Program have fed into the long-going debate over whether China is surpassing the United States as an economic and financial power. And once again, the answer to that question is a qualified "no."

Cooperate with China or Suffer
Andrew Sheng and Xiao Geng (Project Syndicate) May 28, 2020
Neither confronting a threat that doesn't respect borders nor safeguarding an economy that is deeply integrated with the rest of the world can be done alone. Yet it remains far from clear that the US will subordinate its geopolitical rivalry with China to these vital objectives.

Booming economies foster the spread of communicable disease
Sara Markowitz, Erik Nesson, and Joshua J. Robinson (VoxEU) May 28, 2020
High levels of economic activity can foster the spread of communicable diseases through frequent person-to-person interactions. This column discusses how research on high levels of employment affects the spread of influenza and other viruses transmitted via droplet-spread, such as SARS-CoV-2. The results show that the high levels of employment in the US encourages the spread of influenza, especially when employment in service sectors are high. Our results provide support for social distancing measures aimed to slow the growth of cases of COVID-19.

Product innovation and firm dynamics
David Argente, Salome Baslandze, Douglas Hanley, and Sara Moreira (VoxEU) May 28, 2020
Patents are at the heart of policies designed to incentivise innovation and productivity growth. In recent years however, while patent activity has skyrocketed, innovation and productivity growth have not. This column collects data on product innovations and links those to their respective patent. While patent filings are found to be followed by product innovations overall, this relationship is much stronger for firms with lower market share.

The Pandemic Does Not Spell the End for Cities
Jennifer Keesmaat (FA) May 28, 2020
Urban planners should embrace—not fear—density.

The Spanish Flu Didn't Wreck the Global Economy
Walter Scheidel (FA) May 28, 2020
What is different about the coronavirus pandemic?

All Roads to a Better Trade Deal Lead Through the WTO
Phil Levy and Chad P. Bown (FP) May 28, 2020
The United States' best chance to curb China's trade dominance requires mobilizing countries through the World Trade Organization—not withdrawing from it.

Market Assessment of COVID-19
Simon H. Kwan and Thomas M. Mertens (FRBSF Econ Letter) May 28, 2020 Effects of U.S. Supply Chain Re-Orientation: Part I
Jay H. Bryson and Hop Mathews (WF Econ Group) May 28, 2020
In the first report in a two-part series, we explore which U.S. industries could face the biggest adjustments if they shift from foreign vendors to domestic ones, as well as the macro effects on the U.S. economy and its major trading partners.

V-Shape in Services Spending is Vital to Main Street
Tim Quinlan and Shannon Seery (WF Econ Group) May 28, 2020
In this report, we examine how the cratering in consumer spending on services is nothing short of an existential threat to Main Street.

Fiscal policy must now support the recovery
FT View May 29, 2020
Governments have a chance to invest in reshaping economies.

China's stimulus will not stop metal demand falling
Jumana Saleheen (FT) May 29, 2020
Copper likely to benefit most from the new infrastructure spend.

Coronavirus will have a long-term impact on work and retirement
John Dizard (FT) May 29, 2020
Demographic upheaval will be felt for years to come influencing size of future labour forces.

Three game-changing ideas for our post-pandemic world
John Thornhill (FT) May 29, 2020
Institutions may have faltered but, argues the FT's innovation editor, human ingenuity will save the day.

Sound the trumpet! Debt jubilees have arrived
Merryn Somerset Webb (FT) May 29, 2020
Some of the pandemic relief policies around the world are a grand gesture towards forgiveness.

Traders' happy return to work belies long recovery
Brooke Fox (FT) May 29, 2020
Economic reality does not quite match the optimism on the markets.

Companies and investors are under-estimating the coronavirus tax
Tom Braithwaite (FT) May 29, 2020
Future earnings will be hit as companies pay the bill for emergency state support.

Why We Can't Foresee the Pandemic's Long-Term Effects
Robert J. Shiller (NYT) May 29, 2020
The Great Depression of the 1930s was an economic downturn that became a prolonged malaise. A Nobel laureate asks whether that pattern might be repeated.

Yuan back from the brink? Too early to tell
Uwe Parpart (AT) May 29, 2020
Overnight on Wednesday, CNH – the offshore deliverable CNY – touched 7.1965, its weakest level on record and the weakest level of any version of the Chinese currency since January 2008. By setting CNY parity on Thursday substantially stronger than that, at 7.1277, the People's Bank of China apparently attempted to stem the slide, but to no avail.

Equity Investors Must Pay More Attention to Climate Change Physical Risk
Felix Suntheim and Jérôme Vandenbussche (IMF) May 29, 2020
Direct damage from floods, heatwaves and droughts adds up to $1.3 trillion a year, on average.

Fiscal policy for COVID-19 and beyond
Rabah Arezki and Shanta Devarajan (Brookings) May 29, 2020
Not all countries can do whatever it takes

An uncompromising budget
Zsolt Darvas (Bruegel) May 29, 2020
Apart from decisive European Central Bank measures, the EU-wide response to the COVID crisis had been rather weak until the Commission put on the table a drastically new proposal: the creation of a new recovery facility, 'Next Generation EU', that would borrow money in the name of the EU to finance EU-wide expenditures. The changes to the proposed standard seven-year budget that primarily focuses on long-term structural issues are however generally small, and funding reductions are compensated by new funds from the recovery instrument, suggesting that an opportunity is missed to reform the EU budget.

China thinks Macau can replace Hong Kong as an international financial hub
Tianlei Huang (PIIE) May 29, 2020
It won't happen any time soon.

Consumers Start Feeling More Comfortable
Ben Schott (Bloomberg View) May 29, 2020
Covid-19 has put a significant dent in overall sentiment, but Americans are seeing a little light at the end of the tunnel.

Trump's China Fight Shows Covid-19 Hasn't Changed Oil's World
Liam Denning (Bloomberg View) May 29, 2020
The pandemic has merely highlighted the market's pre-existing conditions.

Those Astronomical Returns Aren't What They Seem
Aaron Brown (Bloomberg View) May 29, 2020
Many of the big gains reported by so-called tail risk funds and others are being presented in a misleading way.

It's No Longer Trump's Economy, It's Covid-19's
Karl W. Smith (Bloomberg View) May 29, 2020
Trump's re-election chances depend on how, where and when the pandemic affects the economy.

Ethiopia's Unconventional COVID-19 Response
Arkebe Oqubay (Project Syndicate) May 29, 2020
Instead of implementing a national lockdown like most other governments, including in Africa, Ethiopia initiated other essential measures in January, well ahead of most developed countries. And its success so far illustrates how African countries can tackle the pandemic effectively despite tight resource constraints.

The Uncertain Pandemic Consensus/A>
Jean Pisani-Ferry (Project Syndicate) May 29, 2020
By putting the spotlight on the sector where markets perform the worst – health care – the coronavirus pandemic inevitably prompted a welcome reassessment of the relative roles of markets and the state.The question now is which parts of this emerging consensus will survive the acute phase of the crisis.

The Limits of Extreme COVID Monetary Policy
Paola Subacchi (Project Syndicate) May 29, 2020
Just because the major central banks can continue to introduce increasingly unconventional measures doesn't mean that they should. The current economic crisis demands primarily a fiscal-policy response, whereas extreme monetary policies carry high risks and produce adverse side effects.

The Real Economic Opening We Need
John B. Taylor (Project Syndicate) May 29, 2020
Policymakers around the world already recognize that they need to find a way to reopen national economies safely and in accordance with policies to keep the COVID-19 pandemic under control. Yet not nearly enough has been done to encourage new markets that can operate even under conditions of economic lockdown.

Globalizing the Fight Against the Pandemic
Carlos Alvarado Quesada and Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus (Project Syndicate) May 29, 2020
As a global problem that will remain a threat everywhere as long as it is still present anywhere, the novel coronavirus demands a collective and collaborative response. With a new COVID-19 Technology Access Pool to share data and intellectual property, all countries and companies now have a chance to become a part of the solution.

Forget Hamilton. This Is Europe's Calonne Moment.
Trevor Jackson (FP) May 29, 2020
The EU is still muddling through its post-pandemic recovery—and 18th-century history suggests that disaster could await.

Why Are Stocks Soaring in the Middle of a Pandemic?
Diane Swonk, David Rosenberg, Mohamed A. El-Erian, Adam Posen, Eduardo Porter, and Trevor Jackson (FP) May 29, 2020
Wall Street and Main Street are on two different planets. We asked six leading experts why.

How We Broke the World
Thomas L. Friedman (NYT) May 30, 2020
Greed and globalization set us up for disaster.

Market rally is based on optimistic assumptions
FT View May 30, 2020
Narrative justifying the recovery is plausible but may not come true.

Investors still wary while brighter news builds on Fed support
Michael Mackenzie (FT) May 30, 2020
Rally in risky assets has proven resilient, but path to full health remains rocky.

The Pandemic Isn't India's Only Curve to Flatten
Andy Mukherjee (Bloomberg View) May 30, 2020
Yield differentials look bad for a huge emerging market heading into a recession.

COVID-19 and non-performing loans
Anil Ari, Sophia Chen, and Lev Ratnovski (VoxEU) May 30, 2020
Non-performing loans are a crucial policy consideration, especially in times of wider economic crisis. This article uses a new database covering 88 banking crises since 1990 to draw lessons for post-COVID-19 resolution of non-performing loans. Compared to the 2008 crisis, the pandemic poses some different challenges. Despite some respite from the credit-crash of 2008, policymakers today are faced with substantially higher public debt, less profitable banks, and often weaker corporate sector conditions, making resolution of non-performing loans even more challenging.

Borrowing long is the way to borrow safely
FT View May 31, 2020
Governments can afford much more debt at today's low interest rates.

Covid-19 effects could deepen secular stagnation
Gavyn Davies (FT) May 31, 2020
Monetary policy as we know it has become redundant. Central banks' golden era is probably over.

We may be entering a post-dollar world
Rana Foroohar (FT) May 31, 2020
Continued erosion of trust in America politically could have an impact on the primacy of its currency.

Europe cannot fudge its way to a federal future
Wolfgang Münchau (FT) May 31, 2020
The EU's emergency budget increase is not all it seems, and Germany is still no convert to a fiscal union.

China's National People's Congress: soft on the outside, hard at the centre
Kerry Brown (EAF) May 31, 2020
Beijing's decisions at the NPC reveal the disconnect at the heart of global assessments of a more powerful China, seemingly so essential economically and so impossible politically.

Pandemic Is an Opportunity for Developing Nations
Mihir Sharma (Bloomberg View) May 31, 2020
But attracting manufacturers away from China is going to take more than cheap land and labor reforms.

Fed Should Resist Market Pressure to Do More
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) May 31, 2020
The consequences of additional action outweigh the potential benefits.

Could OPEC+ Become a Victim of Its Own Success?
Julian Lee (Bloomberg View) May 31, 2020
OPEC+ must work hard to avoid another damaging split between those who want to roll back output cuts in July and those who may want to prolong them.

Protecting people now, helping the economy rebound later
Jason Furman (VoxEU) May 31, 2020
The public health measures to 'flatten the Covid-19 curve' will necessarily and appropriately impose large economic costs. This column, taken from a VoxEU eBook, identifies the constraints that policy faces during a pandemic – uncertainty, time, and capacity – and the implications of these constraints.