News & Commentary:

Articles/Commentary

G7 leaders can strike a blow on global corporate tax
Joseph Stiglitz (FT) Jun 1, 2021
European countries should join the US in making an ambitious commitment to fund the recovery.

China boosts measures to cool renminbi rally
Hudson Lockett and Thomas Hale (FT) Jun 1, 2021
Beijing turns to measures not used since global financial crisis as currency strengthens.

China's three-child policy may not halt the demographic free fall
Yuan Yang (FT) Jun 1, 2021
In its swing from restricting to encouraging births, Beijing cannot afford to repeat past mistakes.

China demographics: bet on robots, not baby booms
Lex (FT) Jun 1, 2021
The influence of governments and faith leaders on reproduction rates is low compared with economics.

How the World Ran Out of Everything
Peter S. Goodman and Niraj Chokshi (NYT) Jun 1, 2021
Global shortages of many goods reflect the disruption of the pandemic combined with decades of companies limiting their inventories.

A Future of Secular Stagnation
WSJ Jun 1, 2021
The Biden budget predicts a not very Roaring Twenties.

Europe Catches the Inflation Bug
WSJ Jun 1, 2021
The ECB will try to emulate the Fed's emergency patience.

Proceed with caution on central bank digital currency
Charles Lane (WP) Jun 1, 2021
The risks to privacy may outweigh the benefits to efficiency.

A bipolar currency order is closer than you think
William Pesek (AT) Jun 1, 2021
Part of the yuan's 10.5% gain over the last 12 months is a mechanical response to a weakening dollar. The yuan could now be near the top of the trade-weighted range that Beijing is comfortable with. The Chinese leadership's rising tolerance for a strong yuan suggest it could soon rival the US greenback as a global reserve currency.

New Vietnam variant imperils global supply chains
David Hutt (AT) Jun 1, 2021
Vietnam's Health Minister Nguyen Thanh Long said over the weekend that authorities had detected a new variant of Covid-19, a hybrid of the strains first found in India and Britain and which could be more contagious than other known variants. That's ringing alarm bells not just locally but worldwide in sight of Vietnam's growing role in industrial supply chains.

China's lending to emerging markets became more secretive after 2014
Anna Gelpern, Sebastian Horn, Scott Morris, Brad Parks, and Christoph Trebesch (PIIE) Jun 1, 2021
Chinese lenders' sovereign debt contract terms have been increasingly hidden from public view since 2014. Confidentiality clauses appeared sporadically in Chinese debt contracts before 2014, but every contract in the sample after 2014 has included a confidentiality clause.

The drive to improve cross-border payments
Joy Macknight (Banker) Jun 1, 2021
The setting of hard targets to bring international payments into this century should be applauded ­­– but is the FSB's proposed 2027 deadline too ambitious?

The Multiple Crises of Latin America
Ricardo Ávila (BRINK) Jun 1, 2021
There is growing restlessness on the streets of Latin American countries — from COVID-related economic impacts and corruption to inequality and incompetence. What lies in store for the future of this region?

Multilateral Trade Agreements Should Constitute the Cornerstone of Biden's US-Africa Policy
Mike Brodo and Ken Opalo (CGD) Jun 1, 2021
On November 24, 2020, in her nomination acceptance speech to become the United States Ambassador to the United Nations, former Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Linda Thomas-Greenfield declared, "America is back. Multilateralism is back." President Joe Biden echoed these remarks at the 2021 Munich Security Conference, proclaiming "America is back. The transatlantic alliance is back." While this recommitment to multilateralism is welcome, it is imperative that the Biden Administration's conception of 'transatlantic multilateralism' not be limited to that of relations with Western Europe.

India Won't Get a V-Shaped Recovery This Time
Andy Mukherjee (Bloomberg View) Jun 1, 2021
The intensity and scale of this Covid surge are draining households of cash, making it much harder for the economy to bounce back.

Why Did Yields Defy the Fed's Favorite Inflation Gauge?
Mohamed A El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Jun 1, 2021
Markets did not act irrationally. Instead, it was a reminder that traders and investors have been conditioned to believe that the central bank will maintain ultra-loose monetary policy almost regardless of what's going on in the economy.

China's Three-Child Policy Won't Reverse Population Decline
David Fickling (Bloomberg View) Jun 1, 2021
Falling fertility rates are very difficult to stop, which means other incentives are needed to encourage births.

The Post-Pandemic Boom Will Have a Sequel in 2022
Conor Sen (Bloomberg View) Jun 1, 2021
After slowing later this year, economic growth could then accelerate as supply problems push sales into next year.

How Covid Inspired a New Generation of Entrepreneurs
Allison Schrager (Bloomberg View) Jun 1, 2021
The pandemic forced everyone to adopt new technology and rethink their jobs, spurring our economy to lean in to independent work.

Is Green Development an Oxymoron?
Ricardo Hausmann (Project Syndicate) Jun 1, 2021
Decarbonization will transform global production and trade patterns so radically that new growth opportunities are bound to arise for the Global South. The goal for them should not be to stop global warming by restricting domestic emissions, but rather to carve out a role for themselves in a rapidly greening world economy.

Understanding how central banks use their balance sheets
Stephen Cecchetti and Paul Tucker (VoxEU) Jun 1, 2021
Since the Global Crisis, the size of central bank balance sheets has grown significantly. Traditional goals of price and financial stability are insufficient for assessing the success of modern central banking operations. This column introduces a new framework for categorising and understanding central bank balance sheet operations. Monetary policy decisions are separated from facilities for lender of last resort, market maker of last resort, providing selective credit, and ensuring emergency government financing. To maintain legitimacy and accountability, central banks should formally distinguish these operations by clearly setting out their purposes, objectives, and constraints.

The Next Move
Gita Bhatt (F&D) Jun 1, 2021
Emerging markets can not only reclaim their hard-won economic gains, they can do even better than before the pandemic.

Global Clout, Domestic FragilityGlobal Clout, Domestic Fragility
David Dollar, Yiping Huang, and Yang Yao (F&D) Jun 1, 2021
China's long-term success will depend primarily on addressing its internal challenges.

Inequality in the Time of COVID-19
Francisco H. G. Ferreira (F&D) Jun 1, 2021
All metrics are not equal when it comes to assessing the pandemic's unequal effect.

A COVID-19 Tantrum?
Sebnem Kalemli-Özcan (F&D) Jun 1, 2021
The Federal Reserve's post-pandemic stance will expose vulnerabilities in emerging markets with high private external debt.

Miles to Go
Rupa Duttagupta and Ceyla Pazarbasioglu (F&D) Jun 1, 2021
Emerging markets must balance overcoming the pandemic, returning to more normal policies, and rebuilding their economies.

Is the Emerging World Still Emerging?
Jim O'Neill (F&D) Jun 1, 2021
Two decades on, the BRICs promise lingers.

End of the Line
Rabah Arezki and Per Magnus Nysveen (F&D) Jun 1, 2021
A looming oil price super cycle will likely be the last.

A New Era of Digital Money
Tobias Adrian and Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli (F&D) Jun 1, 2021
Digital forms of money could be a boon for emerging market and lower-income economies if the transition is well managed and regulated.

Inflation: What Lies Ahead?
Itay Goldstein (K@W) Jun 1, 2021
The latest rise in the inflation rate to 4.2% for April has fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates and tighten monetary policy – but that will depend on whether this is a temporary change.

The Divergent Signals about Labor Market Slack
Troy Gilchrist and Bart Hobijn (FRBSF Econ Letter) Jun 1, 2021
A broad dashboard of indicators is sending mixed signals about the state of the labor market. Some indicators have deviated widely from their normal historical relationships since the onset of COVID-19. Because of the uneven economic impact of the pandemic, the labor force participation rate, payroll employment, and the share of job losers among the unemployed have provided more reliable signals about overall conditions than other components of the dashboard. They suggest that labor slack is higher than implied by the current headline unemployment rate.

A windfall for poor countries is within reach
Martin Wolf (FT) Jun 2, 2021
High-income states can help by lending on their IMF special drawing rights.

The death of the growth vs value stock debate
Saira Malik (FT) Jun 2, 2021
Old trope of share selection is not a sound strategy for investors.

Don't be fooled by corporate losses
Baruch Lev (FT) Jun 2, 2021
Absurd accounting rules make innovative companies appear worse than they are.

Stablecoins: bitcoin for squares has its own downsides
Lex (FT) Jun 2, 2021
Tokens pegged to real world assets are less volatile, but that may not make them the next big thing.

Myanmar banks on edge of a coup-caused collapse
Dominic Oo (AT) Jun 2, 2021
Long snaking queues in front of bank ATMs are now a daily sight in the commercial capital of Yangon. Myanmar's private banks are teetering as anxious depositors rush to withdraw funds amid coup-caused political instability, concerns about the country's underlying finances and an emerging shortage of kyat currency notes.

Long-run impacts of COVID-19 on extreme poverty
Homi Kharas and Meagan Dooley (Brookings) Jun 2, 2021
COVID-19 will accentuate the long-term concentration of poverty in countries that are middle-income, fragile and conflict-affected, and located in Africa.

Peak copper and lithium? The siren song of the peak resource arguments
Cullen S. Hendrix (PIIE) Jun 2, 2021
Rising commodity prices inevitably revive concerns about peak production of nonrenewable resources. In the past decade, peak panics revolved around oil and phosphate. As demand for the transition metals that are needed to fuel renewable energy systems—metals like aluminum, cobalt, copper, lithium, and nickel—ramps up, so will concerns that we are on a path to running out of these critical resources. As with previous panics, this concern will be overblown. Barring advances in asteroid or lunar mining, these resources are indeed finite. But this does not mean we have an accurate picture of just how plentiful or scarce they are.

Follow the trend: US demand is back, supply is lagging, but both are likely to grow in coming months
Jason Furman and Wilson Powell III (PIIE) Jun 2, 2021
By April 2021 robust consumer spending and strong investment by businesses and homebuilders in the United States had driven total demand nearly back to its pre-pandemic trend. At the same time, employment was about 7 percent below its trend (or 10 million workers short). Even though hours and productivity of employed workers were up, that was still not enough to enable the United States to produce as much as the economy was demanding, with the difference made up by increases in net imports and reductions in inventories.

Don't Let That Recovery Fool You, Australia
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg View) Jun 2, 2021
The economy is back. Whether it can handle the dismantling of stimulus is another matter.

China's Inflation Could Be the World's Problem
John Authers (Bloomberg View) Jun 2, 2021
How the country deals with surging input costs will have far-reaching implications for global growth and prices.

Brazil Needs More Than Green Energy to Thrive
Mac Margolis (Bloomberg View) Jun 2, 2021
Latin America's biggest economy needs a more resilient and diverse energy grid to spark a real economic recovery.

The Stimulus Didn't Work, Again
John B. Taylor (Project Syndicate) Jun 2, 2021
Since the onset of the pandemic in March 2020, the US government has provided tens of millions of households with direct injections of cash. But insofar as these policies are intended to stimulate the overall economy, there is no evidence to suggest that they actually work.

CEOs Are the Problem
Daron Acemoglu (Project Syndicate) Jun 2, 2021
The latest wave of corporate virtue signaling should not be taken as a sign that a new era of stakeholder capitalism is upon us. On the contrary, corporate leaders are feeling public pressure and seeking to position themselves as part of the solution to problems that they caused.

Waste Less, Earn More
Bertrand Piccard (Project Syndicate) Jun 2, 2021
While some advocate economic degrowth as an option to achieve climate targets and other environmental goals, there is a much stronger case for adopting efficient clean technologies. The gains from introducing them would outweigh the financial cost of the green transition, and economies would not have to sacrifice growth in the process.

Good Inflation
Harold James (Project Syndicate) Jun 2, 2021
Economic horror stories from the Great Depression and the 1970s can offer useful lessons, but they are no longer appropriate for today's world. In a world undergoing radical economic, technological, and climatic change, we must recognize that not all price increases are the same, and that some are desirable – and even necessary.

Xi's Historic Mistake
J. Bradford DeLong (Project Syndicate) Jun 2, 2021
If China historically had pursued the path that its current paramount leader, Xi Jinping, seems to want to take, it would not be a rising economic superpower. History shows that it is in China's own interest to allow for more regional autonomy and less centralization.

Invisible China: Hundreds of Millions of Rural Underemployed May Slow China's Growth
Scott Rozelle and Natalie Hell (VoxChina) Jun 2, 2021
No assessment of China's growth is complete without considering the implications of having hundreds of millions of underemployed people in China's economy for the foreseeable future. The bottom line is that China needs to build on its recent efforts to boost rural education, health and nutrition, and early childhood development, and do so at a pace and intensity that recognizes these are potentially among the biggest problems the nation faces.

Why banks differ in the pace of adoption of new technology
Prachi Mishra, Nagpurnanand Prabhala, and Raghuram Rajan (VoxEU) Jun 2, 2021
India only introduced credit scoring technology in 2007. This column studies its adoption by the two main types of banks in the country: new private banks and state-owned public sector banks. While both types of banks check nearly all scores for new borrowers, public sector banks are very slow to adopt scoring for their prior relationship borrowers even though scores are reliable predictors of delinquency. Government ownership does not explain this slow adoption, as older privatebanks also exhibit similar adoption patterns. The findings suggest that practices from the past, when adapted to different regulatory and economic environments, are slow to change and can hold back better practices today.

Macroprudential policy issues arising from the low interest rate environment
John Fell, Tuomas Peltonen, and Richard Portes (VoxEU) Jun 2, 2021
At the end of 2019 the European Systemic Risk Board General Board mandated a Task Force on Low Interest Rates to revisit the ESRB's 2016 report on "Macroprudential policy issues arising from low interest rates and structural changes in the EU financial system", assess subsequent developments, compare these to the risks identified in the report, and assess whether new sources of systemic risk have emerged. Furthermore, the Task Force was mandated to review progress in relation to the policy proposals in the earlier report, as well as propose possible new policy actions aimed at mitigating potential systemic risks. As this column discusses, the new report finds that the low interest rate environment continues to pose risks for financial stability. For instance, since 2016, search-for-yield behaviour has intensified in the banking and investment fund sectors, and some business models are proving unsustainable. To address these sources of risk and vulnerabilities, the report puts forward a wide range of policy options.

The differing effects of globalisation on trade versus migration
Rebecca Freeman and John Lewis (VoxEU) Jun 2, 2021
Better communications, enhanced transport links, integration agreements between governments, and other factors have all helped increase global economic interconnectedness over the past few decades. This column compares a state-of-the-art gravity model for trade versus migration to reveal that there are in fact important differences in the evolution of globalisation over time on flows of goods versus people. For trade, the boost from free trade agreements declines the farther apart signatories are, but for migration the boost increases with distance between signatories. Further, while both border and distance frictions have declined for trade over time, this is not the case for migration flows.

Global Migration Drives Global Democracy
Abel Escribà-Folch, Covadonga Meseguer, and Joseph Wright (FA) Jun 2, 2021
How workers abroad weaken dictators back home.

Runnin' Renminbi
Brendan McKenna (WF Econ Letter) Jun 2, 2021
The Chinese renminbi has consistently strengthened against the U.S. dollar over the past year on the back of economic outperformance. Last week, the renminbi crossed below CNY/CNH6.40, a level not seen since 2018. The speed and size of the renminbi's appreciation has been impressive; however, yield dynamics between the U.S. and China suggest further strength in the short-term could be limited. In addition, PBoC authorities have recently displayed modest concern over the strength of the currency, and it is possible the central bank takes a more active role to disrupt the path of the renminbi.

Part I: Demographics Set to Exert Headwinds on U.S. Economic Growth
Jay Bryson and Hop Mathews (WF Econ Group) Jun 2, 2021
Population growth rates in many economies will slow further in coming years and, in some cases, likely will turn negative. In the first installment of a series of reports, we discuss the long-run economic implications of slower population growth for the United States.

Britain needs better protections for investors
FT View Jun 3, 2021
The Financial Conduct Authority needs to ask searching questions — about itself.

Europe's social peace requires a return to fiscal discipline
Wolfgang Schäuble (FT) Jun 3, 2021
The EU's post-pandemic recovery plans should make room for a debt redemption fund.

Libor's US replacements: no one rate to rule them all
Claire Jones (FT) Jun 3, 2021
Several alternatives are vying to replace the doomed benchmark. And it's complicating the transition.

The U.S. Economy Is Sending Confusing Signals. What's Going On?
Ben Casselman (NYT) Jun 3, 2021
The ebbing of the pandemic has brought price increases, supply bottlenecks and labor shortages. Key indicators will show whether it's just a stage.

Here's How to Understand the Next Jobs Report
Dean Baker (NYT) Jun 3, 2021
Hint: The employment figures only tell part of the story.fft.

Powell's Dollar, China's Problem
WSJ Jun 3, 2021
A declining greenback creates a new risk for the global recovery.

One of Trump's dumbest economic policies remains in place. Time for Biden to scrap it.
Catherine Rampell (WP) Jun 4, 2021
If there were plenty of reasons to avoid these tariffs three years ago, there are even more reasons to scrap them today.

Be careful what you wish for as yuan nears 6 mark
William Pesek (AT) Jun 3, 2021
Beijing mouthpieces like China Daily are working overtime to warn yuan bulls not to take this year's rally too far. A case in point was a headline this week declaring that the "Rapid Rise of the Yuan Is Unsustainable." Fair enough. But to what extent is the yuan surging toward 6 to the dollar really President Xi Jinping's call?

Re-Globalization, With Hiccups
Andrés Ortega (Globalist) Jun 3, 2021
A new era of globalization is dawning, but it is accompanied by serious challenges.

Multilateral Banks and the Role They Play in Climate Change Reduction
Mark Plant (BRINK) Jun 3, 2021
There is growing pressure on multilateral development banks, such as the World Bank and the Asian and African Development Banks, to make greener investments in the developing world and align with the targets set by the Paris Agreement on climate change. The challenges that MDBs face in creating a greener portfolio.

Declining foreign direct investment can't contribute much to sustainable development
Simon J. Evenett and Johannes Fritz (Brookings) Jun 3, 2021
FDI in developing countries falters.

U.S. Inflation Isn't Scary Yet, But It Could Be
William C Dudley (Bloomberg View) Jun 3, 2021
The current spike will probably pass, but the longer-term risk remains.

The Deeper Anxieties of the Inflation Hawks
James K. Galbraith (Project Syndicate) Jun 3, 2021
Following an increase in consumer prices during the first quarter of the year, commentators who were already wringing their hands about inflation have now doubled down on their position. But the economic arguments used to justify such fears simply do not stand up to scrutiny.

A Transatlantic Climate Alliance
Ana Palacio and Simone Tagliapietra (Project Syndicate) Jun 3, 2021
Never before have the climate goals, needs, and challenges of the US and the EU been so closely aligned. When Joe Biden visits Europe for the first time as US president, he should capitalize on this to begin forging a transatlantic green deal.

China's Three-Child Policy Won't Help
Nancy Qian (Project Syndicate) Jun 3, 2021
Alarmed by new data showing that its fertility rate is now similar to that of aging Japan, China has announced that it will permit families to have up to three children. Yet without broader reforms to address high costs of living and rural-urban divides, the new policy could make a difficult problem worse.

FDI is in big trouble: Insights from the 27th Global Trade Alert report
Simon Evenett and Johannes Fritz (VoxEU) Jun 3, 2021
Properly guided, foreign direct investment has transformed the prospects of certain firms, sectors, regions, and even economies. This column introduces the 27th Global Trade Alert report, which looks back over the past quarter of a century to put current FDI dynamics in perspective, assesses the degree to which governments continue to favour FDI, and points the spotlight on the limited contribution of FDI to advancing sustainable development in emerging markets.

Fiscal austerity intensifies the increase in inequality after pandemics
Davide Furceri, Prakash Loungani, Jonathan D. Ostry, and Pietro Pizzuto (VoxEU) Jun 3, 2021
In the aftermath of past pandemics, fiscal policy played an important role in reducing or amplifying income inequality. This column predicts the likely distributional effects of Covid-19 by analysing evidence from five previous outbreaks (SARS, H1N1, MERS, Ebola, and Zika). It finds that severe austerity measures were associated with inequality increases three times greater than expansive fiscal policy following a pandemic. Premature austerity is self-defeating from both a macro and an equity standpoint.

A slow population decline is nothing to fear
FT View Jun 4, 2021
Choice, not numbers, should be the focus of family planning policies.

Global Finance Leaders Move Closer to International Tax Agreement
Alan Rappeport (NYT) Jun 4, 2021
The overhaul under discussion includes a minimum tax that companies would pay regardless of where their headquarters were.

Inflation Is Real Enough to Take Seriously
Jeff Sommer (NYT) Jun 4, 2021
While economists debate whether the current spike is "transitory" or longer lasting, investors may want to review their inflation playbook, just in case.

The Fed's Inflation Logic Is Flawed, and Dangerous
Richard Cookson (Bloomberg View) Jun 4, 2021
There are plenty of holes in the arguments for keeping monetary policy loose.

Who's Really Living in Oil's La La Land?
Liam Denning (Bloomberg View) Jun 4, 2021
Saudi Arabia calls the IEA's vision of the future unrealistic. It may want to reconsider its own vision first.

The Best Inflation Bond Play for the Wealthy
Alexis Leondis (Bloomberg View) Jun 4, 2021
Treasury inflation-protected securities are a better deal for deep-pocketed investors than Series I savings bonds.

Leveling Up Is Hard to Do
Diane Coyle (Project Syndicate) Jun 4, 2021
If clustering of knowledge-based firms resumes as the pandemic fades, the momentum toward ever-increasing geographic inequality risks becoming inexorable. The first step toward addressing the problem is to recognize that a holistic approach to public policy – one that adopts the viewpoint of users and administrators – is essential.

A Curse Worse than Cash
Kenneth Rogoff (Project Syndicate) Jun 4, 2021
Although prominent cryptocurrency advocates are politically connected and have democratized their base, regulators simply cannot sit on their hands forever. Malicious ransomware attacks targeting growing numbers of firms and individuals could prove to be the tipping point.

The New Climate Narrative
Kemal Dervis (Project Syndicate) Jun 4, 2021
Framing climate-change mitigation as a growth opportunity instead of merely a cost should make rapid progress toward a green transformation much more feasible. What previously appeared to be a political suicide mission could now yield substantial benefits for those who lead it.

The transmission mechanism of the Corporate Sector Purchase Programme
Frank Betz, Roberto De Santis, and Andrea Zaghini (VoxEU) Jun 4, 2021
Monetary policy can stimulate credit provision – and as a result, economic activity – through the purchases of corporate bonds This column assesses euro area financing conditions and shows they have improved since the announcement of the ECB Corporate Sector Purchase Programme on 10 March 2016, with corporate bond spreads tightening and bond issuance increasing. Moreover, the unconventional monetary policy triggered a shift in bank loan supply in favour of firms that do not have access to bond-based financing.

Regional firm subsidies: Direct, spillover, and welfare effects
Sebastian Siegloch, Nils Wehrhöfer, and Tobias Etzel (VoxEU) Jun 4, 2021
Increasing regional inequality has become a major concern for policymakers both in the US and Europe. This column investigates the effects of a large place-based investment subsidy targeted at manufacturing firms in East Germany. It shows that a decrease in the subsidy rate leads to a decrease in manufacturing employment, highlighting spillovers to untreated sectors in treated counties and untreated counties connected via trade and local taxes. It also finds that the place-based policy is at least as efficient as cash transfers for the unemployed but is more effective in curbing regional inequality overall.

The changing nature of capital flows
Cathérine Casanova, Beatrice Scheubel and Livio Stracca (VoxEU) Jun 4, 2021
Since the Global Crisis, the channels of capital flows have changed significantly. This column analyses key trends and underlying drivers of capital flows since the Global Crisis, including the policy trade-offs. It documents the increasing importance of market-based funding, a growing reliance on domestic currency liabilities, and a less stable foreign direct investment environment, particularly for emerging market economies. Although these changes create risks which should be managed, capital flows also present clear benefits for stimulating economic performance and efficiency.

Investors should look to Europe when making their next move
Michael Mackenzie (FT) Jun 5, 2021
Rougher waters lie ahead but European and global equities may provide a new opportunity.

The new geopolitics of global business
Economist Jun 5, 2021
China and America dominate like never before.

Jair Bolsonaro is not the only reason his country is in a ditch
Economist Jun 5, 2021
The political system that helped him win office needs deep reform.

What a work-from-home revolution means for commercial property
Economist Jun 5, 2021
As offices remain empty, does a financial reckoning loom?

How Marriage Patterns May Have Helped Fuel Europe's Rise to Wealth
Lipton Matthews (Mises Wire) Jun 5, 2021
Many factors help explain the rise of the West, including both decentralization and the embrace of laissez-faire. But Europe's unusual pattern of family formation is also a likely and important factor.

China's new population numbers won't doom its growth
Bert Hofman (EAF) Jun 6, 2021
An analysis of China's population problem and options for policymakers.

The obstacles in the way of Big Four globalisation
FT View Jun 6, 2021
Accountants must improve accountability but national silos are bound to persist.

A new capital in the Egyptian desert: Sisi's military model for the economy
Andrew England (FT) Jun 6, 2021
The army's increased involvement is crowding out the private sector and scaring away foreign investors, say critics.

Yellen's Global Tax Surrender
WSJ Jun 6, 2021
U.S. workers, consumers and shareholders will pay for the new minimum tax.

Crypto Needs Regulation, but It Doesn't Need New Rules
Jay Clayton and Brent McIntosh (WSJ) Jun 6, 2021
Identify the function a new financial instrument is performing, then apply the existing framework to it.

Digital Yuan May Prove the Hong Kong Dollar's Cousin
Andy Mukherjee (Bloomberg View) Jun 6, 2021
What if the e-CNY is issued by commercial banks and backed up by the state's coercive power?

How services drive the growth of emerging economies: Evidence from India
Tianyu Fan, Michael Peters, and Fabrizio Zilibotti (VoxDev) Jun 6, 2021
Service-led growth can be a viable development strategy for the developing world; however, its fruits might disproportionately benefit the rich

G7 tax accord is a game-changing opportunity
FT View Jun 7, 2021
The proposed model is imperfect, but a lot better than the system today.

Central bankers should beware of labour shortages
FT View Jun 7, 2021
Bottlenecks are nothing to fear but more permanent shifts carry risks.

Central banks' action on climate change raises mission creep concerns
John Plender (FT) Jun 7, 2021
A focus on the transition to net zero could distract them from their core objectives.

Don't dismiss market bubbles — some leave lasting progress behind
Ruchir Sharma (FT) Jun 7, 2021
For every few dozen flops, there can be companies that provide long-term innovation.

The Fed's Risky Fill-the-Punch-Bowl Strategy
Kevin Warsh (WSJ) Jun 7, 2021
Growth is surging, the housing market is hot, and inflation is on the rise. It's time to pull back.

What Biden needs to do heading into the G-7 summit
Michael Gerson (WP) Jun 7, 2021
The world still awaits policy initiatives equal to this moment.

Wall Street bulls charge into China's opening markets
William Pesek (AT) Jun 7, 2021
The 27-year bet Goldman Sachs has been running on China's financial sector isn't just paying off. It's suddenly becoming a remarkably crowded trade. A who's-who of Wall Street royalty is rushing China's way even as geopolitical currents pull Washington and Beijing apart. JP Morgan, BlackRock and others are defying geopolitical risks and storming into the yuan zone.

Are We About to See an End to Corporate Tax Havens?
George Dibb (BRINK) Jun 7, 2021
The G7 meeting this week will discuss whether to approve a global minimum corporate tax. As governments seek ways to repay the costs of COVID-19 support, they have zoned in on ending profit offshoring and the use of low-tax havens.

When it comes to inflation, the Fed must consider inequality
Karen Petrou (FT) Jun 7, 2021
The US central bank has misread both the data and its mandate.

Yellen May Be Doing Powell a Favor on Raising Rates
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg View) Jun 7, 2021
The Fed needs to conjure up smart language on paring back stimulus. The Treasury boss has some useful talking points.

Make No Mistake, the Risk of Inflation Is Real
Mervyn Allister King (Bloomberg View) Jun 7, 2021
For the first time in decades, two forces have converged — excessive stimulus and weakened political resistance.

The ECB Has Far Worse Troubles Than Inflation
Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg View) Jun 7, 2021
Europe is still more worried about chronic long-term deflationary pressure, and the strength of the euro versus the dollar.

Bankers Face a New Temptation on Dirty Derivatives
Elisa Martinuzzi (Bloomberg View) Jun 7, 2021
Keeping derivatives out of "green asset ratio" calculations may just encourage lenders to use more of them on climate-unfriendly financing deals.

Think the Global Minimum Tax Will Bite? Watch the Stock Market
David Fickling (Bloomberg View) Jun 7, 2021
A plan to implement a tax floor of 15% ought to represent a substantial hit to future earnings. There's no sign yet that's happening.

The Fed Is Risking a Full-Blown Recession
William C Dudley (Bloomberg View) Jun 7, 2021
The execution of its new inflation-targeting regime leaves much to be desired.

The Inflation Red Herring
Joseph E. Stiglitz (Project Syndicate) Jun 7, 2021
Far from signaling the return of significant inflation, temporary price increases are exactly what one would expect in a recovery following an economic shutdown. Whether those peddling inflation fears are pursuing their own agenda or simply jumping the gun, they should not be heeded.

The G7 Tax Clampdown and the End of Hyper-Globalization
Dani Rodrik (Project Syndicate) Jun 7, 2021
The G7 agreement on taxation of global corporations still needs formal approval from a wider set of countries, and there remain many details to be worked out for it to be effective. Nonetheless, it would not be farfetched to describe the deal as historic.

Accelerating Global Britain
Dambisa Moyo (Project Syndicate) Jun 7, 2021
When the UK hosts the upcoming G7 summit in Cornwall, political and business leaders will want to see how well aligned the country is with the three issues that, collectively, will upend global commerce and catalyze economic growth in the coming decades: engagement with China, technological innovation, and clean energy.

Earnings inequality and dynamics in the presence of informality
Niklas Engbom, Gustavo Gonzaga, Christian Moser, and Roberta Olivieri (VoxEU) Jun 7, 2021
Relatively little is known about the patterns of inequality in developing countries, despite their importance for designing social and economic policies. This column analyses administrative and household data to describe the trends in earnings inequality and dynamics in Brazil since late 1980s. The findings suggest that the observed fall in earnings inequality and volatility may have been driven by the process of formalisation and other changes within the informal sector.

The Fed risks reacting too slowly if inflation keeps rising
Martin Wolf (FT) Jun 9, 2021
And that will be bad news for the rest of the world economy as it recovers from the pandemic.

Bitcoin lacks a solid foundation as an international currency
Roger Svensson (FT) Jun 8, 2021
For millennia, money has acted as a store of value as well as reducing transaction costs — crypto does neither.

Keep an eye on inflation risks
John Redwood (FT) Jun 8, 2021
Even if most central banks play down the danger, investors must be vigilant.

Hong Kong risks its global finance status over Covid isolation
Tabby Kinder (FT) Jun 8, 2021
Businesses and bankers decry restrictions on international travel.

Copper boom: how clean energy is driving a commodities supercycle
Neil Hume and Henry Sanderson (FT) Jun 8, 2021
Demand is set to explode with the rise in renewables technology, but years of under-investment threaten to leave supply short.

How to Keep the Economy Booming — And Meet the Demand for Workers
Glenn Hubbard (NYT) Jun 8, 2021
Rising demand must be met by rising supply.

China Is Trying to Tame Inflation. It Matters to Much of the Globe.
Keith Bradsher (NYT) Jun 8, 2021
Rising costs at its factories — an accelerating trend, new data showed — could trickle into the rest of the world economy.

China meddled in family planning. Now it faces a population crisis.
David Von Drehle (WP) Jun 8, 2021
A new three-child cap alone will not offset a string of failed policies.

China-Australia trade war a win-win for ASEAN
David Hutt (AT) Jun 8, 2021
Southeast Asia is reaping the benefits of other people's trade wars. Regional states are also making gains amid an intensifying Australia-China trade spat, prompted by Canberra's call for an independent, international investigation into the Chinese origins of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Foreign asset managers are eyeing China's vast pool of savings
Economist Jun 8, 2021
Do they stand a chance against home-grown competitors?

Four Factors Behind the Metals Price Rally
Martin Stuermer and Nico Valckx (IMF) Jun 8, 2021
As economies reopen in various parts of the world, the price of some commodities has soared, including the prices of prominent industrial metals. The extent to which the metals price rally may lose steam depends on how multiple factors will play out.

Wall Street Is Dealing Like It's 2007
Tara Lachapelle (Bloomberg View) Jun 8, 2021
Leveraged buyouts are happening at a speed and extravagance not seen since the run-up to the financial crisis. Why?

Why Yellen May Be Right Not to Fear Inflation
Peter R Orszag (Bloomberg View) Jun 8, 2021
The debate over whether prices will keep rising has overlooked a few important details.

Building an Inclusive Digital Future
Lee Jong-Wha (Project Syndicate) Jun 8, 2021
Now that the COVID-19 pandemic has hastened the arrival of the digital economy, policymakers around the world must do more to ensure that the benefits and opportunities are available to everyone. It's a challenge that calls for new governance frameworks within countries and at the global level.

Africa's "Model T" Business Model
Efosa Ojomo and Lincoln Wilcox (Project Syndicate) Jun 8, 2021
The narrative about the challenges of doing business in Africa needs to be revised. Given the myriad products and services that remain unattainable, opportunities for market-creating innovation abound.

The Great Lockdown and Global Trade
Daniel Gros (Project Syndicate) Jun 8, 2021
Global supply chains have weathered the pandemic intact, and the deep recession has not unleashed a wave of protectionism. That is good for global trade, and probably for foreign direct investment, too, and suggests that predictions of globalization's demise were premature.

Why We Need to Tax Wealth More Effectively
John Cassidy (New Yorker) Jun 8, 2021
How Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, Michael Bloomberg, George Soros, and other American billionaires have gamed the system.

Part II: Which Regions Have the Strongest Demographic Outlooks?
Jay Bryson and Hop Mathews (WF Econ Group) Jun 8, 2021
In the second installment in our series on population growth and its implications for economic growth, we look at demographic projections in the major regions of the world. The number of individuals in Africa should continue to grow at a robust rate over the next few decades. But this strong rate of population growth does not necessarily imply that Africa is destined to become an economic powerhouse in coming years.

Is Biden's Global Corporate Tax a Revolution—or a Retreat?
Michael Hirsh (FP) Jun 8, 2021
Progressives are upset with Biden's modest proposal, but if implemented it would be a big step in global tax reform.

The Forever Virus
Larry Brilliant, Lisa Danzig, Karen Oppenheimer, Agastya Mondal, Rick Bright, and W. Ian Lipkin (FA) Jun 8, 2021
A strategy for the long fight against COVID-19.

Chip shortage shows the pitfalls of 'just in time'
FT View Jun 9, 2021
To avoid future disruptions, companies need to invest in supply chains.

Japan, land of the rising investment prospects
Simon Edelsten (FT) Jun 9, 2021
It gives you developed market access to China and the Asia growth story.

Governments should tax cash flow, not global corporate income
Glenn Hubbard (FT) Jun 9, 2021
Proposals could reduce cross-border investments and limit the profitability of multinational firms

We Ran the Treasury Department. This Is How to Fix Tax Evasion.
Timothy F. Geithner, Jacob J. Lew, Henry M. Paulson Jr., Robert E. Rubin and Lawrence H. Summers (NYT) Jun 9, 2021
America loses hundreds of billions of dollars to tax evasion every year. We need to give the I.R.S. the tools to combat it.

The Fed's Duty Is to the Economy, Not 'Equity'
Michael T. Belongia and Peter N. Ireland (WSJ) Jun 9, 2021
Central banks are risking their independence by wading into social agendas outside their purview.

Why we need a global corporate minimum tax
Arturo Herrera Gutiérrez, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, Tito Mboweni, Olaf Scholz and Janet L. Yellen (WP) Jun 9, 2021
Governments live in fear of overtaxing corporations, lest those companies move their operations, and jobs, offshore.

Biden's Blue Dot seeks to derail China's Belt and Road
Richard Javad Heydarian (AT) Jun 9, 2021
Amid an escalating new Cold War, the Biden administration is mobilizing allies and partners to slow China's technological strides and arrest its rising global influence. In particular, the US has doubled down on reviving the so-called Blue Dot Network, a long-dormant initiative launched by the previous Trump administration to counter Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

The Benefits of Setting a Lower Limit on Corporate Taxation
Aqib Aslam and Maria Coelho (IMF) Jun 9, 2021
Minimum taxation over the decades.

The Multilateral Humanitarian System Needs Alternative Donorship Models
Patrick Saez, Lewis Sida and Rachel Silverman (CGD) Jun 9, 2021
Donors' varied approaches to measuring performance.

Keeping China at Bay: Biden's Trillion Dollar Infrastructure Blueprint
Ryan O'Connell (Globalist) Jun 9, 2021
The best way to counter China's propaganda would be for the Biden infrastructure programs to show that democracy works by providing concrete benefits to Americans.

Inflation!? Germany, the euro area and the European Central Bank
Guntram B. Wolff (Bruegel) Jun 9, 2021
There is concern in Germany about rising prices, but expectations and wage data show no sign of excess pressures; German inflation should exceed 2% to support euro-area rebalancing but is unlikely to do so on sustained basis.

Biden's Trickle-Up Economics Is Bound to Fail
Allison Schrager (Bloomberg View) Jun 9, 2021
Long-term growth will be stifled if government spending leaves less money to invest in the future.

How the G-7 Can Really End the Global Pandemic
Gordon J Brown (Bloomberg View) Jun 9, 2021
The wealthy world can get Covid vaccines to the impoverished one with a cost-sharing formula modeled on UN peacekeeping.

Markets Are Ignoring the Main Driver of Today's Inflation
Lena Komileva (Bloomberg View) Jun 9, 2021
In a rollercoaster economic cycle, inflation is the temporary cost of Covid uncertainty.

Rising Inflation Expectations Are Not the Present Danger
Karl W Smith (Bloomberg View) Jun 9, 2021
The Federal Reserve should focus on the potential for a wage-price spiral.

The World's Food Supply Has Never Been More Vulnerable
Amanda Little (Bloomberg View) Jun 9, 2021
Industrial giants like JBS dominate global agriculture, making disruption increasingly likely unless we act now to diversify production.

Putin's Right. There Is No Escaping the Dollar
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg View) Jun 9, 2021
Russia and China may gripe about the role of the U.S. currency, but both would have to admit it's indispensable.

The Return of the Finance Threat?
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Project Syndicate) Jun 9, 2021
Given recent history, policymakers would be unwise merely to hope for a best-case scenario in which a strong and quick economic recovery redeems the enormous run-up in debt, leverage, and asset valuations. Instead, they should now act now to moderate the finance sector's excessive risk-taking.

Fixing the Broken Pandemic Financing System
David Miliband, Elizabeth Radin, and Christopher Eleftheriades (Project Syndicate) Jun 9, 2021
Among the many failures following the World Health Organization's declaration of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on January 30, 2020, was the slow mobilization of global financing for pandemic response efforts. What is needed now is not just more investment but also a better delivery system.

The Investment Imperative for the G7
Nicholas Stern (Project Syndicate) Jun 9, 2021
Rich-country governments should be prepared to invest an additional $1 trillion per year to boost growth and lay strong foundations for a green industrial revolution. But their economies will recover fully only if they also mobilize finance and foster investment in emerging markets and developing countries.

The disciplining effect of supervisory scrutiny in the EU-wide stress test
Christoffer Kok, Carola Müller, Steven Ongena, and Cosimo Pancaro (VoxEU) Jun 9, 2021
Since the financial crisis, stress tests have become an important supervisory and financial stability tool. Relying on confidential data available at the ECB, this column presents novel evidence that supervisory scrutiny associated with stress testing has a disciplining effect on bank risk. Banks that participated in the 2016 EU-wide stress test subsequently reduced their credit risk relative to banks that were not part of this exercise. Relying on new metrics for supervisory scrutiny, it also shows that the disciplining effect is stronger for banks subject to more intrusive supervisory scrutiny during the stress test.

The 2020 trade impact of the Covid-19 pandemic
Xuepeng Liu, Emanuel Ornelas, and Huimin Shi (VoxEU)) Jun 9, 2021
Worldwide merchandise trade flows decreased significantly in 2020, as Covid-19 disrupted economic activity across the globe. This column analyses how various pandemic-related factors shaped international trade flows. Specifically, it estimates how Covid-19 incidence and lockdown restrictions affected the monthly year-over-year growth of imports from China for all destinations to which China exported goods in 2019–2020. It finds that government measures to curb economic activities had a larger impact on a country's imports than the direct health and behavioural effects of the pandemic itself.

The Dark, Democratizing Power of the Social-Media Stock Market
Caroline Lester (New Yorker) Jun 9, 2021
BitClout collapses everything—art, humor, personhood—into money, laying bare just who, and what, we are willing to pay for.

US inflation continues to grind higher
Jamie Powell (FT) Jun 10, 2021
Used autos are still going mad.

Ireland should trust in the skills, not the luck, of its people
Chris Giles (FT) Jun 10, 2021
Sticking with a low corporate tax rate could turn it into a pariah nation.

Europe's weaknesses to be exposed over long term
Eric Knight (FT) Jun 10, 2021
Expect a revival of the 'doom loop' link between solvency of banks and their country.

Gold under the new regime
Robert Armstrong (FT) Jun 10, 2021
A hedge, but not necessarily an inflation hedge.

A Made-in-Washington Inflation Spike
WSJ Jun 10, 2021
Congress feeds demand but constricts supply, and the Fed stays easy.

The Fed doesn't want you to worry about inflation. You should.
Henry Olsen (WP) Jun 10, 2021
Inflation is like a hurricane. The forecasters seem to be ignoring warning signs of a massive storm to come.

China struggles to hold back yuan appreciation
David P. Goldman (AT) Jun 10, 2021
China's export performance creates a massive imbalance of supply and demand for its currency. Chinese exporters are selling excess dollars to buy yuan, and the People's Bank of China appears to be buying dollars on the open market to slow the appreciation of the Chinese currency.

The coming productivity boom
Erik Brynjolfsson and Georgios Petropoulos (Bruegel) Jun 10, 2021
AI and other digital technologies have been surprisingly slow to improve economic growth. But that could be about to change.

3 Major Political and Credit Risks Amid Pandemic Recovery
Stephen Kay (BRINK) Jun 10, 2021
The pandemic recovery has complicated growing risks across all regions — from credit risks to political risks. But senior leaders and risk professionals can access a variety of tools to help limit the effects of these risks.

Getting Back to Growth
Lone Engbo Christiansen, Ashique Habib, Margaux MacDonald, and Davide Malacrino (IMF) Jun 10, 2021
The pandemic accelerated the shift toward digitalization and automation.

Cracks in the Housing Market Are Starting to Show
Gary Shilling (Bloomberg View) Jun 10, 2021
Sticker shock is just one of numerous signs that a slowdown may already be happening.

Economists are slightly better at predicting inflation than consumers
Joseph E. Gagnon and Madi Sarsenbayev (PIIE) Jun 10, 2021
The jump in consumer price index (CPI) inflation in April 2021—to 4.2 percent over the previous 12 months—has sparked numerous stories in the press about the potential inflationary impact of President Joseph R. Biden Jr.'s American Rescue Plan and his proposed American Jobs Plan and American Families Plan.[1] A survey of consumers finds a modest increase in expected inflation over the next year, with little change to longer-term expectations. A survey of professional economic forecasters, which has a better track record of predicting inflation, shows little change in expected inflation over both the short term and the long term. Inflation has been declining or stable over almost the entire historical record of these surveys, however, so that neither has been tested for its ability to predict a significant and sustained increase in inflation.

1947, 1970s, 2008. Take Your Pick, Inflationistas
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg View) Jun 10, 2021
Investors are looking everywhere for the best historical analogy to rising prices. Smoothly navigating the pandemic recovery hinges on choosing the right one.

Will China Save the US from Inflation Fears?
Isabella M. Weber (Project Syndicate) Jun 10, 2021
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta warned last month that the US might be headed toward an inflationary episode on par with the period following World War II, when the release of pent-up demand fueled a 20% surge in prices. But China's efforts to stabilize commodity prices should help to avoid a worst-case scenario.

The Upside of Population Decline
Adair Turner (Project Syndicate) Jun 10, 2021
A pervasive conventional bias assumes that population decline must be a bad thing. But in a world where technology enables us to automate ever more jobs, the far bigger problem is too many potential workers, not too few.

Fiscal rules in the European Monetary Union
Ethan Ilzetzki (VoxEU) Jun 10, 2021
Fiscal rules were enshrined in the founding documents of the European Monetary Union. This column presents the latest CfM-CEPR survey, in which the panel of experts on the European economy were nearly unanimous in agreeing that the existing EU fiscal rules require revision. Most panel members would opt for some combination of fiscal councils; more flexible, countercyclical, or expenditure-based rules; and increased fiscal capacity at the EU level. A smaller share of panelists would scrap fiscal rules altogether, leave fiscal policy to national authorities, and provide greater clarity that the EU would not bail out countries facing debt problems. A single panel member called for stricter rules with greater enforcement.

How Russian banks anticipated and dealt with global financial sanctions
Mikhail Mamonov, Anna Pestova, and Steven Ongena (VoxEU) Jun 10, 2021
Financial sanctions against Russia's state-owned and controlled banks were imposed consecutively between 2014 and 2019, allowing banks that would potentially be targeted in the future to adjust their international and domestic exposures. This column explores the informational effects of financial sanctions, showing thatcompared to similar private banks, 'not yet sanctioned' financial institutions immediately reduced their foreign assets while, rather unexpectedly, expanding their foreign liabilities. These informational effects crucially depend on geography, with targeted banks located further from Moscow decreasing their foreign assets by more and raising foreign liabilities by less than those located near the Kremlin.

Large trade shocks and economic crises
Adam Gulan, Markus Haavio, and Juha Kilponen (VoxEU) Jun 10, 2021
In December 1990, the Soviet Union withdrew from its bilateral trade agreement with Finland. This was followed by a dramatic collapse in Finnish-Soviet trade and a deep economic crisis in Finland. This column re-assesses the role of the trade collapse in causing the Finnish Great Depression in the early 1990s. The trade shock had a strong negative effect on the Finnish economy but explains less than one-third of the cumulative GDP loss. Domestic factors, including a financial boom and bust, exerted a much larger negative effect.

ECB Signals It's Too Early To Taper
Nick Bennenbroek (WF Econ Group) Jun 10, 2021
The European Central Bank (ECB) held monetary policy steady at today's meeting, keeping its Deposit Rate at -0.50% and making no changes to its asset purchase programs. The ECB also signaled it was too early to taper its bond purchases, saying that it expects an accelerated pace of purchases to continue during Q3. At this stage, so long as the Eurozone economy shows a perceptible firming in growth in the months ahead, we expect the ECB to announce a slower pace of bond purchases from Q4 2021 at its September meeting.

How equality slipped away
Kim Sterelny (Aeon) Jun 10, 2021
For 97 per cent of human history, all people had about the same power and access to goods. How did inequality ratchet up?

New bank rules restrain and recognise crypto
FT View Jun 11, 2021
Banking rulemakers rightly view digital currencies as an official but highly risky asset.

G7 leaders need to lift their game
FT View Jun 11, 2021
A failure to adequately address vaccine shortages and climate change would be disastrous.

The bond market says 'meh'
Robert Armstrong (FT) Jun 11, 2021
And Basel says no to crypto.

Time for an investment step change
Merryn Somerset Webb (FT) Jun 11, 2021
Go active in the US to capture mid-cap growth and shift to passive in the UK.

Yes, It's a Global Tax on American Tech
WSJ Jun 11, 2021
Yellen and friends try to hide the G-7's aims from Congress.

Behold, North Korea has Asia's hottest currency
Bradley K. Martin (AT) Jun 11, 2021
The North Korean won, one of the world's least coveted currencies, jumped 33% against the yuan and at the same time was up 18% against the US dollar in the span of less than a month. Theories on what was behind the odd phenomenon included variations on the usual themes when North Korean money markets go crazy.

Can Crypto Buttress the Asset Management Industry?
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Jun 11, 2021
There are big opportunities for investment firms in digital currencies. But a lot hinges on market regulators.

Rising Wages Herald a New Era of Jobless Growth
Conor Sen (Bloomberg View) Jun 11, 2021
Futurists have talked for years about an economy based on more automation and artificial intelligence. Thanks to the pandemic, we might finally get it.

A Global Tax Deal for the Rich, Not the Poor
José Antonio Ocampo and Tommaso Faccio (Project Syndicate) Jun 11, 2021
Despite the recent G7 agreement on corporate taxation, global leadership requires going beyond national interests to ensure that all countries have sufficient resources to develop healthier post-pandemic economies. This will require addressing the developing world's demands in a way that is not only historic, but also fair.

The Paradoxes of the Bangladesh Miracle
Arvind Subramanian (Project Syndicate) Jun 11, 2021
After emerging poor and devastated from its independence struggle 50 years ago, Bangladesh has managed to become a global paragon of economic development. While the country's success is the result of many factors, two distinctive features of its political economy stand out.

The Big Float
Barry Eichengreen (Project Syndicate) Jun 11, 2021
When the US effectively floated the US dollar in 1971, many foresaw the end, or at least the beginning of the end, of the Bretton Woods system and, with it, American monetary and economic hegemony. Yet the dollar-based system survives – along with the same old criticisms of it.

Sustainable Investment Is Flooding the Market
Lisa Viscidi (FP) Jun 11, 2021
And Latin America is poised for a windfall.

G20 could improve on 'one-sided' global tax reform
Alex Cobham (FT) Jun 12, 2021
G7 measures will disproportionately benefit rich countries.

Undertones of The Clash in great inflation debate in markets
Michael Mackenzie (FT) Jun 12, 2021
Investors face tricky bet on sustainability of spike in prices as economy recovers.

Dollar traders chill after the tantrum
Eva Szalay (FT) Jun 12, 2021
US currency gives up gains made on expectation of rising interest rates.

Private Inequity: How a Powerful Industry Conquered the Tax System
Jesse Drucker and Danny Hakim (NYT) Jun 12, 2021
The I.R.S. almost never audits private equity firms, even as whistle-blowers have filed claims alleging illegal tax avoidance.

Europe's Summer of Recovery Is More Fragile Than It Looks
Peter S. Goodman (NYT) Jun 11, 2021
An anticipated surge of tourism in Portugal is suddenly not at all certain — a symbol of the global economy's continued struggle with pandemic uncertainty.

Soaring factory prices in China add to global inflation fears
Economist Jun 12, 2021
Long a source of cheap goods, is China now exporting higher prices?

How green bottlenecks threaten the clean energy business
Economist Jun 12, 2021
A great green investment boom is under way, but supply-side problems are underappreciated.

Cryptocoins are proliferating wildly. What are they all for?
Economist Jun 12, 2021
They range from fads to potential rivals to bitcoin.

With Reverse Repos, The Fed Is Now Trying to Clean up Its Own Mess
Doug French (Mises Wire) Jun 12, 2021
One of the areas of the economy that the Fed recently needed to bail out was money market funds. Most investors consider these funds cash. One wonders why the Fed would be forced to provide liquidity to shore up liquidity.

What the Rich Don't Want to Admit About the Poor
Ezra Klein (NYT) Jun 13, 2021
Why do we leave millions of people in poverty? The answer should make us uncomfortable.

The U.S. needs to learn from its TPP mistake — and get its seat back at the table
Tom Carper and John Cornyn (WP) Jun 13, 2021
To even have a shot at writing the rules, you need a seat at the table. Right now, the United States is waiting in the hallway.

Signs of life for global cooperation out of COVID-19
Shiro Armstrong (EAF) Jun 13, 2021
The APEC trade ministers' meeting is an example of global cooperation on trade that may be at least as consequential. Importantly in APEC, the emphasis differs from the G7 approach and is inclusive of developing country interests.

Luxury and Hunger: Two Faces of an Unequal Pandemic
Andy Mukherjee (Bloomberg View) Jun 13, 2021
India's economic gap is widening under Covid, with $400,000 SUVs selling out and the bankrupted selling their homes.

The G7 was stronger on values than hard cash
Gideon Rachman (FT) Jun 14, 2021
Competition with China and Russia drove the agenda of the world's largest democracies.

Fed meeting turns into a test of its inflation narrative
Mohamed El-Erian (FT) Jun 14, 2021
Central bank should not take comfort from the bond market.

Corporates know transition from Libor is painful but necessary
Claire Jones (FT) Jun 14, 2021
Companies are still not prepared enough for switch from borrowing benchmark.

The eurozone must not return to its pre-crisis 'normality'
Lorenzo Bini Smaghi (FT) Jun 14, 2021
If Schäuble really wants to follow Keynes' advice, Germany should borrow more and focus less on others' spending habits.

Aid to the developing world is the key to fighting climate change
Emma Howard-Boyd (FT) Jun 14, 2021
The G7 must deliver on green finance and investment for poorer countries.

The Rising Stakes for the Fed
WSJ Jun 14, 2021
The risks to its credibility and independence are growing.

G7 ballyhoos challenge to China's Belt and Road
Richard Javad Heydarian (AT) Jun 14, 2021
The Group of Seven (G7) club of industrialized nations have come together to put forward a new set of major initiatives including a "Build Back Better World" (B3W) global infrastructure development scheme pitched as a "values-driven, high-standard and transparent" alternative to China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Lots of tone, little substance at G7
Daniel Williams (AT) Jun 14, 2021
There was a strong sense of déjà vu about the results of this year's G7 summit of industrialized economies. It seemed to be a throwback to 2016, when America and its allies were squarely committed to multilateralism. Some would say it was more of a photo opportunity for eager leaders to show their importance on the world stage.

How to Attract Private Finance to Africa's Development
Abebe Aemro Selassie, Luc Eyraud, and Catherine Pattillo (IMF) Jun 14, 2021
African economies are at a pivotal juncture. The COVID-19 pandemic has brought economic activity to a standstill. Africa's hard-won economic gains of the last two decades, critical in improving living standards, could be reversed.

A Cozy Group of Elites Debate a Complex Superpower
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg View) Jun 14, 2021
Little unanimity emerged over China from the G-7 meeting. But that there's any doubt about its role in the global order is a major shift.

Herd Immunity Is Closer Than You Think
Bill Emmott (Project Syndicate) Jun 14, 2021
With new variants emerging rapidly and new outbreaks in places that had seemed to have the virus under control, COVID-19 remains a global problem. But the recent sharp increase in vaccine supplies indicates that the global solution we need is well within reach.

The Benefits of Bottom-Up Entrepreneurship
M. Niaz Asadullah and Mishkatur Rahman (Project Syndicate) Jun 14, 2021
Bangladesh's virtuous cycle of technology-aided development stems from decades of sustained state-NGO collaboration, combined with an emphasis on grassroots initiatives to empower female entrepreneurs. This model has also given the country an unexpected advantage in managing the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Fickle Charms of Private Global Finance
Jayati Ghosh (Project Syndicate) Jun 14, 2021
Despite all the hype, greater access to private international capital has not been much use to most emerging markets and developing countries over the past two decades. The record suggests that solutions to current macroeconomic dilemmas that still rely on net capital inflows are likely to end in tears.

Trade imbalances and preferential trade agreements
Giovanni Facchini, Peri da Silva, and Gerald Willmann (VoxEU) Jun 14, 2021
The creation of new preferential trade agreements remains a key driver in trade liberalisation, at least bilaterally. This column examines the creation of new agreements, highlighting the effects of pre-agreement bilateral imbalance and within-country income inequality on the likelihood of a preferential trade agreement being formed. The authors suggest that while the creation of preferential trade agreements continues to be an important avenue to liberalise trade, there are significant political constraints to be considered.

Banking on experience
Hans Degryse, Sotirios Kokas, and Raoul Minetti (VoxEU) Jun 14, 2021
The debate surrounding the drafting and implementation of the new Basel III accord has reignited the debate on the role of bank business models and lending technologies in banking activities, and the way these should be accounted for by regulators. This column explores how banks' credit market experiences affect their decisions and moral hazards in lending. Banks' prior experience with borrowing firms and co-lenders reinforces their monitoring incentives allowing for a smaller lead share in the lending syndicate. Banks' sectoral experience, in contrast, appears to dilute monitoring incentives, calling for a larger lead share in the lending syndicate.

The US should spurn the false promise of protectionism
Martin Wolf (FT) Jun 15, 2021
America's economy suffers from inequality and poor labour performance but this is not due to global trade.

The coming regime shift towards capital-heavy companies
Ian Harnett (FT) Jun 15, 2021
Structural shifts will require more investment in technologies and supply chains.

After the UK comes Italy's moment as global convening power
Martin Sandbu (FT) Jun 15, 2021
Rome will chair G20 summit in Venice where G7-backed plans have a chance to materialise.

How to Have a Roaring 2020s (Without Wild Inflation)
Mike Konczal and J.W. Mason (NYT) Jun 15, 2021
Manage the boom, don't fight it.

Let Freer Trade Take Flight
WSJ Jun 15, 2021
The U.S. and EU put the Boeing-Airbus dispute aside for bigger things.

The tragic decay of a Latin American success story
Charles Lane (WP) Jun 15, 2021
One Venezuela is enough. A Global First: Bitcoin as National Currency
Max Raskin (WSJ) Jun 15, 2021
El Salvador puts the digital money on par with the U.S. dollar for all public and private debts.

The enduring triumph of Chimerica
David P. Goldman (AT) Jun 15, 2021
Hating China may be the only thing that American politicians agree about, but China remains the prop and support of the American economy. What economists once called "Chimerica" – the symbiosis of an American economy that borrows and imports with a Chinese economy that lends and exports – is back with a vengeance.

Japan's government spent less on COVID-19 stimulus than headline numbers suggest
Egor Gornostay and Madi Sarsenbayev (PIIE) Jun 15, 2021
The total size of Japan's three stimulus packages announced in 2020 exceeded an estimated ¥300 trillion—more than 50 percent of its GDP, around twice the size of US fiscal stimulus. These headline figures make Japan's fiscal stimulus the largest of any Group of Seven (G7) nation relative to GDP. However, they include nongovernment spending and measures that are unlikely to have a direct impact on aggregate demand. Once these measures are omitted and proper adjustments for Japan's COVID-19 Contingency Fund are made, the size of the packages shrinks to just 16 percent of Japan's GDP, the third largest in the G7.

In reforming global taxes, don't forget small countries' interests
Simeon Djankov and Gary Clyde Hufbauer (PIIE) Jun 15, 2021
The long-running debate over how to prevent big multinational corporations from parking money in low-tax countries like Ireland, Bermuda, and Luxembourg has so far taken place among the world's wealthiest democracies. Rich countries, after all, are those most eager to prevent the erosion of their own tax bases. That debate is about to enlarge and become even more challenging. Dozens of small countries that rely on tax policy for their growth strategies are lining up to have their say about the new rules emerging among rich countries.

This Is What Could Trigger Big Growth in CPI Inflation
Brendan Brown (Mises Wire) Jun 15, 2021
Whether today's Great Monetary Inflation (which began in 2011) will end with sustained CPI inflation remains a wide-open question at this point. Prices could be reined in as in the 1990s, or a 1970s-style inflation could still be in store.

Europe's Debt Avalanche Is Just About to Start
Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg View) Jun 15, 2021
The Brussels pandemic bond will be a serious new rival to the Bund as Europe's sovereign benchmark.

Everyone's a Rising Star When Debt Is Cheap
Lisa Abramowicz (Bloomberg View) Jun 15, 2021
Rock-bottom financing has led to a wave of credit upgrades, but how will those ratings hold up when borrowing costs increase?

Fed Needs to Take Action Despite Its Framework
Mohamed A El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Jun 15, 2021
The central bank's outcome-based approach exacerbates economic and financial risks and needs to be addressed now. +

Is Globalization Harming Innovation?
Dalia Marin (Project Syndicate) Jun 15, 2021
New studies show that, while greater competition from China has contributed to an increase in patents in Europe, it has reduced the innovation rate in the US. These divergent outcomes are partly attributable to changes in the manufacturing sector.

The City Awakens
Yves Daccord (Project Syndicate) Jun 15, 2021
The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted life everywhere, but particularly in cities. The question is whether it can also spur an urban renewal, with cities being transformed into cleaner, safer, more equitable, and more sustainable places to live.

Switzerland's Brexit Moment
Georg E. Riekeles (Project Syndicate) Jun 15, 2021
Many in Switzerland have failed to recognize that their exorbitant privileges vis-à-vis the European Union could not continue. The Swiss government's recent withdrawal from talks on an EU framework agreement could reduce the country's single-market access and prompt a fundamental rethink of its relationship with the bloc.

From gross exports to value-added exports to income exports
Timon Bohn, Steven Brakman, and Erik Dietzenbacher (VoxEU) Jun 15, 2021
Global value chain analyses to examine the income gains from trade are particularly complicated by ownership relations between headquarters and subsidiaries. The consequence is that the value added generated within one country may well result in income in another country. This column presents the income perspective as a framework to deal with this complication. Trade deficits become smaller for wealthy countries and larger for developing countries. Discussions on 'unfair' trade should take the income perspective on board.

El Salvador Is Printing Money With Bitcoin
David Gerard (FP) Jun 15, 2021
Nayib Bukele doesn't want to ditch dollars. He just wants his own.

Good UK trade policy should start at home
FT View Jun 16, 2021
Australia deal shows the importance of domestic buy-in to agreements.

Carbon trading will drive emission cuts in commodity supply chains
Jeremy Weir (FT) Jun 16, 2021
Transparent standards and a liquid carbon market could play a role in climate transition.

Inflation poses a duration problem for investors
Seth Bernstein (FT) Jun 16, 2021
Shift in markets is likely to upend traditional asset allocation.

Stress-testing supply chains is key to a durable global recovery
Stephen Paduano (FT) Jun 16, 2021
G7 leaders should fulfil their promise to create a collective framework for doing so.

No Inflation Worries at the Fed
WSJ Jun 16, 2021

Powell says there's no reason to tighten despite a booming economy.

The Fed sticks to its monetary course — but inflation looms
WP Jun 16, 2021
Powell believes the bigger risks to prosperity lie in trying to cool the economy.

Korea's 'innotech' economy maddens analog Japan
William Pesek (AT) Jun 16, 2021
If you're wondering why South Korea's economy is outperforming Japan's in 2021 by such a wide margin, events at drugmaker Celltrion offer some timely clues. On Monday, the Incheon-based biopharmaceutical outfit announced positive results for an experimental antibody Covid-19 treatment.

Biden's China policy gets ASEAN cold shoulder
Richard Javad Heydarian (AT) Jun 16, 2021
US President Joseph Biden has been relatively successful in corralling Western allies against China, with the recently concluded G7 Summit culminating in a series of global initiatives to counter Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative. The same, however, cannot be said about Southeast Asia, where Biden's China policy has so far garnered at best lukewarm support.

The Netherlands: Building a stronger recovery
Daniela Glocker (OECD Ecoccope) Jun 16, 2021
The Netherlands is recovering from its largest economic contraction since the Second World War. Almost overnight, the COVID-19 outbreak restricted people's daily lives. Work and education shifted to take place from home. Many businesses offering non-essential but close contact jobs could not easily adjust, leading to a reduction in working hours or number of employed. Travel, social interactions, shopping, cultural and leisure activities were restricted to hold back the spread of the virus. The Dutch government swiftly implemented a comprehensive support package, and extended and adjusted the measures several times in response to prolonged restrictions. These policies reduced uncertainty and protected people, businesses and jobs. In combination with structural and institutional strengths and a high level of digitalisation, the generous fiscal support helped the country to weather the COVID-19 crisis with limited economic damage compared to many OECD countries.

Bangladesh: Growth Miracle or Mirage?
Shahid Yusuf (CGD) Jun 16, 2021
Is it sustainable?

June FOMC Meeting: Flexible Expectations Targeting
Allison Boxer and Tiffany Wilding (PIMCO) Jun 16, 2021
Buoyed by faster growth and higher inflation expectations, the Fed advances rate hikes to 2023 and broaches the topic of tapering.

India vs. Brazil. One of Them Has to Be Right on Inflation
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg View) Jun 16, 2021
Both countries have been crippled by Covid-19 and beset by surging prices, but they're taking opposite approaches on monetary policy.

Will Bitcoin Be El Salvador's Passport to Riches?
Lionel Laurent (Bloomberg View) Jun 16, 2021
A golden visa plan designed to attract the crypto-wealthy doesn't look like a boon for financial inclusion.

Big Government Is the Answer to America's Supply Problems
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Jun 16, 2021
Tax cuts and deregulation are remedies of a bygone age; the U.S. needs to act more directly to expand production.

Pay for the Infrastructure Bill With a Carbon Tax
Michael R Strain (Bloomberg View) Jun 16, 2021
Why aren't senators considering a fiscally and environmentally sound way to pay for projects they all want?

We Don't Need the G7
Jeffrey D. Sachs (Project Syndicate) Jun 16, 2021
The group's recent summit in Cornwall should be its last. Political leaders need to stop devoting their energy to an exercise that is unrepresentative of today's global economy and results in a near-complete disconnect between stated aims and the means adopted to achieve them.

China Needs Higher Inflation
Yu Yongding (Project Syndicate) Jun 16, 2021
Some Chinese economists have attempted to assuage inflation fears by noting that the recent surge in the producer price index is unlikely to translate into a sharp uptick in consumer prices. In fact, this is precisely what China should fear.

Migration and risk sharing in currency unions
Wilhelm Kohler, Gernot Müller, and Susanne Wellmann (VoxEU) Jun 16, 2021
Labour mobility is a key criterion for assessing optimum currency areas. To smooth country-specific shocks or business cycles in currency unions, it is key that people migrate across the countries or regions of the union. This column argues that the ongoing discussion about risk sharing in the euro area neglects the issue of labour mobility. Relative to the US, migration rates in the euro area are significantly lower and migration contributes less to overall risk sharing. It calls for a renewed focus on the principle of labour mobility in order to enhance risk sharing in the euro area.

Tax expenditures: The hidden side of government spending
Agustin Redonda and Christian von Haldenwang (VoxEU) Jun 16, 2021
Tax expenditures – such as tax incentives for firms, tax deductions for households, and lower tax rates for specific goods and services – are are both widespread and costly, but are generally not subject to the same level of scrutiny in the budget process as direct spending. This column introduces the Global Tax Expenditures Database, which aims to improve reporting and enhance scrutiny. As governments worldwide face growing funding needs to respond to the pandemic, they cannot afford to lose revenues to ill-designed tax breaks. Comprehensively assessing tax expenditures is crucial, and estimating and reporting their fiscal cost is a vital first step.

Fiscal support for a sustainable recovery in the euro area
Niels Thygesen, Roel Beetsma, Massimo Bordignon, Xavier Debrun, Mateusz Szczurek, Martin Larch, Matthias Busse, Mateja Gabrijelcic, Laszlo Jankovics, and Janis Malzubris (VoxEU) Jun 16, 2021
In its latest assessment of the euro area fiscal stance, the European Fiscal Board concludes that national policy plans for 2022 amount to an appropriate fiscal stance for the euro area as a whole. This column discusses how, against the backdrop of a strong economic rebound this year and next and the unwinding of emergency measures, the underlying fiscal deficit of the euro area should halve between 2021 and 2022, while nevertheless remaining well above pre-crisis levels. With significant fiscal support still in the pipeline, more targeted measures should avoid excess economic scarring and encourage sustainable growth while facilitating the green and digital transitions.

Climate Policies Could Hand Power and Profits Back to OPEC
Ellen R. Wald and Jonathan H. Ferziger (FP) Jun 16, 2021
The Western rush to replace oil has Gulf producers laughing all the way to the bank.

Airbus and Boeing deal is a welcome EU-US detente on trade
FT View Jun 17, 2021
Both must work together, not against each other, to confront China.

The Fed nailed it
Robert Armstrong (FT) Jun 17, 2021
But its policymakers can't see the future, and neither can you.

The (not so) long view on the carbon transition
Martin Sandbu (FT) Jun 17, 2021
If we manage to reach net zero by 2050, how would the world have changed to get us there?

Investors should prepare for impact of green stress tests on banks
Huw van Steenis (FT) Jun 17, 2021
Central bankers look at powerful tool to nudge financial system to address climate risks.

The G7 is right to worry about Chinese credit terms
Megan Greene (FT) Jun 17, 2021
Opaque agreements raise fears that Beijing could exploit debtor nations.

Gangs replace rules in the new global order
Philip Stephens (FT) Jun 17, 2021
Joe Biden's week of summitry reclaims US leadership of the west as the world returns to great power rivalry.

The Economic Gauges Are Going Nuts. Jerome Powell Is Taking a Longer View.
Neil Irwin (NYT) Jun 17, 2021
Despite the current confusion, his outlook, based on hard lessons from the 2010s, is essentially optimistic.

Is There a Central Banker in the House?
Joseph C. Sternberg (WSJ) Jun 17, 2021
It often feels as if no one is in charge of monetary policy in the world's largest economy.

US industrial policy not a threat to Asian allies
Scott Foster (AT) Jun 17, 2021
The White House study is entitled "Building Resilient Supply Chains, Revitalizing American Manufacturing and Fostering Broad-based Growth: 100-Day Reviews under Executive Order 14017." And when it was released this month it aroused some alarm in Asia, a region spilt over President Joe Biden's aim to push back against China.

Decoding the FOMC's surprise change in rate expectations for 2023
David Wilcox (PIIE) Jun 17, 2021
Much of the immediate post-game analysis since the end of the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has centered on the fact that the median FOMC participant now sees two rate hikes in 2023, whereas in March the median participant saw none. The adjustment in rate expectations came despite the fact that the FOMC's forecasts for the unemployment rate and inflation in 2022 and 2023 are barely revised. The sudden emergence of rate hikes into plain view left some commentators perplexed. But there is a simple and sensible explanation: The FOMC now expects much faster inflation this year, and that revised expectation has to figure into their deliberations about how to set the stance of policy in coming years.

The Fed Is Moving More Slowly Than the Recovery
Bloomberg View Jun 17, 2021
There's a disconnect between what's happening in the economy and what the central bank is saying.

The Federal Reserve Continues to Fall Behind the Curve
Mohamed A El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Jun 17, 2021
The central bank demonstrated it was at least paying attention to economic developments, but it's compounding an unnecessary risk.

China Can't Slam the Brakes on Its Steel Runaway Train Yet
David Fickling (Bloomberg View) Jun 17, 2021
The government wants to reduce the industry's carbon footprint, but there's overwhelming demand from a property sector that covers the equivalent of Lebanon in new real estate each year.

Fed Satisfies Inflation Hawks Without Lifting a Finger
Brian Chappatta (Bloomberg View) Jun 17, 2021
Central bankers projected interest-rate increases well into the future that could be changed easily depending on economic conditions.

European Stocks Are Coming In From the Cold
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Jun 17, 2021
After years of lagging their U.S. peers, equities in Europe are starting to shine.

China's Price Controls Won't Crash a Booming Metals Market
David Fickling (Bloomberg View) Jun 17, 2021
So long as activity in the real economy continues at the current pace, such tactics are unlikely to succeed.

The Gaps in Bidenomics
Robert Skidelsky (Project Syndicate) Jun 17, 2021
Policymakers seeking to stimulate the economy must pay more attention than past Keynesians did to avoiding inflation and ensuring that job creation at home is not offset by a drain of production capacity abroad. If the Biden administration is wise, it will adopt two radical policy proposals that address both issues.

Asymmetric information in the foreign exchange market
Giovanni Cespa, Antonio Gargano, Steven Riddiough, and Lucio Sarno (VoxEU) Jun 17, 2021
The extent that trade volume can reveal asymmetric information among foreign exchange market participants is the subject of debate among economists, as are the questions surrounding how the dispersion of information can affect currency returns. This column presents new evidence that foreign exchange volume reveals insights into both issues. The authors find that a high level of information asymmetry exists across foreign exchange market participants, and that this asymmetry is independent of currencies' average level of liquidity, volatility and volume.

Electricity Is the New Oil
Amy Myers Jaffe (FA) Jun 17, 2021
A U.S. strategy for the post-hydrocarbon world.

The End of Friedmanomics
Zachary D. Carter (TNR) Jun 17, 2021
The famed economist's theories were embraced by Beltway power brokers in both parties. Finally, a Democratic president is turning the page on a legacy of ruin.

U.S. Dollar: Spike Likely Transitory, Softness Should Resume
Brendan McKenna and Nick Bennenbroek (WF Econ Group) Jun 17, 2021
While the FOMC made no substantive changes to monetary policy yesterday, the updated "dot plot" has turned market discussion toward whether the Fed may look to tighten monetary policy earlier than previously expected. As a result, the U.S. dollar has spiked against G10 and emerging market currencies; however, in our view, the recent strength in the dollar will likely be temporary and could make for attractive entry points to gain exposure to foreign currencies.

The Federal Reserve deftly changes tack
FT View Jun 18, 2021
Hawkish tilt is justified given an encouraging but uncertain outlook.

Yield swerves
Robert Armstrong (FT) Jun 18, 2021
And are international stocks too cheap?

Who's afraid of 2.1% inflation?
Merryn Somerset Webb (FT) Jun 18, 2021
Be concerned about the effect on your cash savings and stock markets.

The Fed needs a psychological toolkit
Gillian Tett (FT) Jun 18, 2021
A better understanding of the emotions of consumers would help control inflation risks.

China's shadow bank crackdown is finally working
William Pesek (AT) Jun 18, 2021
It's not quite a People's Bank of China taper, but Beijing's crackdown on shadow banks is suddenly getting as creative as it could be impactful. Over the last week, Chinese regulators detailed plans to limit what mainland banks and wealth managers can do with so-called "cash-management products."

India's Growing International Clout
Gurjit Singh (Globalist) Jun 18, 2021
A changing global context, a more transactional world and China's assertiveness increase India's pool of potential friends.

A Proposal to Scale Up Global Carbon Pricing
Vitor Gaspar and Ian Parry (IMF) Jun 18, 2021
Climate change presents huge risks to the functioning of the world's economies.

The Fed Buys the ECB Some Taper Time
Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg View) Jun 18, 2021
Powell's subtle but significant shift gives Europe a chance to highlight its go-slower approach

Not Even Bond Traders Can Predict the Future
Allison Schrager (Bloomberg View) Jun 18, 2021
Falling yields should be a source of concern, not a sign that inflation is being held at bay.

State capacity and development clusters
Tim Besley, Chris Dann, and Torsten Persson (VoxEU) Jun 18, 2021
The determinants of economic development have been debated for many years. However, some of these determinants have been hard to measure internationally. This column reviews evidence from 25 years of data to argue that countries form persistent 'development clusters' according to their levels internal peace and state capacity.

Corporate borrowing during crises
Juan Jose Cortina Lorente, Tatiana Didier, and Sergio Schmukler (VoxEU) Jun 18, 2021
The recent expansion in global corporate debt has occurred not only in one but in several debt markets, notably bonds and syndicated loans. This column argues that firms obtain financing in several debt markets and this more diversified corporate debt composition might help them mitigate the impact of supply-side shocks. Contrary to common beliefs, debt financing did not necessarily halt during crises because firms from advanced and emerging economies shifted their capital raising activity between bonds and syndicated loans as well as between domestic and international markets. These market switches, conducted mostly by large firms, impacted the amount of debt borrowed, the borrowing maturity, and the debt currency denomination, within firms and at the aggregate level. Overall, debt markets need to be analysed jointly to obtain a more complete picture of who is borrowing at different points in time and how overall corporate debt is evolving.

Part III: Are India and Indonesia Poised To Be Engines of Growth?
Jay Bryson and Hop Mathews (WF Econ Group) Jun 18, 2021
In the third installment in our series on the economic implications of demographic changes, we consider the long-run economic outlook in a few large Asian economies. India and Indonesia will need to raise their rates of national savings and investment if they want to realize double-digit economic growth rates on a sustained basis.

Oil bulls are dancing in the dark
David Sheppard (FT) Jun 19, 2021
Huge uncertainty clouds the outlook for supply and demand.

Could a growth setback be the surprise scenario for US markets?
Michael Mackenzie (FT) Jun 19, 2021
Some investors are worried about economic recovery as pandemic stimulus fades and the debt burden mounts.

The capitalist case for taxing business
Janan Ganesh (FT) Jun 19, 2021
Forcing multinationals to pay up would reverse the trend of corporate sanctimony.

Europe's economic recovery effort should be smarter, not bigger
Lorenzo Codogno (FT) Jun 19, 2021
A permanent centralised fiscal capacity and the creation of EU safe assets would be a good start.

How will rising shipping cost affect inflation in OECD countries?
Sophie Guilloux-Nefussi and Elena Rusticelli (OECD Ecoscope) Jun 19, 2021
Extraordinary demand and supply factors have pushed up freight prices.

Latin America isn't booming, but that could change
Ruchir Sharma (FT) Jun 20, 2021
Populism and the pandemic have interrupted the region's commodity-linked prosperity.

Trade harmony is music to the ears of the liberal world order
Martin Sandbu (FT) Jun 20, 2021
The US and EU are burying old disputes and plan a close partnership on global economic rules.

Capital for the people — an idea whose time has come
Rana Foroohar (FT) Jun 20, 2021
California's experiments with 'pre-distribution' could be attempted at the federal level.

Russia's Rosatom seeks to tap global transition to low-carbon fuels
Nastassia Astrasheuskaya (FT) Jun 20, 2021
State-run nuclear monopoly steps up development of reactors, wind and energy storage and green hydrogen projects.

How Long Can America Keep Borrowing?
Bob Kerrey and John C. Danforth (WSJ) Jun 20, 2021
The debt crisis has grown far worse since 1994, when we headed a bipartisan panel.

Is the US chip wall starting to crumble?
Dave Makichuk (AT) Jun 20, 2021
"Failure is not an option" is an epic phrase associated with Gene Kranz and the Apollo 13 Moon landing mission, which went terribly wrong, but ended happily thanks to some Mission Control heroics. Likewise, with a newly-appointed vice premier at the microchip helm, China is leaving itself no more excuses to fail.

American 'decoupling' from China, deconstructed
Urban C. Lehner (AT) Jun 22, 2021
The motivation for US-China "decoupling" is clear: a conviction that the US can't be dependent on a rival country for critical technology. How far decoupling, as opposed to talk of decoupling, will go remains to be seen. But the talk, along with some actual decoupling, is likely to continue for a while.

Economically, covid-19 has hit hard-up urbanites hardest
Economist Jun 19, 2021
This is true in rich and poor countries alike.

Big Oil's New Problem Isn't Lack of Demand, It's Lack of Supply
Julian Lee (Bloomberg View) Jun 20, 2021
To avoid drastic spikes in oil prices, OPEC+ has to get a handle on the pandemic recovery.

Get Ready for Years of Chaos in Container Shipping
David Fickling (Bloomberg View) Jun 20, 2021
Backed up ports and the Suez Canal fiasco are just surface problems. When things go wrong in this business, they go seriously wrong.

What the Crypto Crowd Doesn't Understand About Economics
Tyler Cowen (Bloomberg View) Jun 21, 2021
Digital currency has always been a highly unusual asset class, but it won't stay that way forever.

Morrisons bid highlights the tricky business of stakeholder M&A
Helen Thomas (FT) Jun 21, 2021
Supermarket's board could find itself trying to reconcile two, slightly contradictory concerns.

How China broke the Asian model
Gideon Rachman (FT) Jun 21, 2021
Beijing has challenged the geopolitical order that enabled the rise of east Asia.

Emerging markets are right to worry about capital flows
Duvvuri Subbarao (FT) Jun 21, 2021
Foreign exchange reserves offer only a partial defence against the effects of policy in the rich world.

How meme lords fuelled a boom in the 'stonk market'
Robin Wigglesworth (FT) Jun 21, 2021
Financial memefication is evolving from a niche corner to grow deep roots in markets.

There was no hawkish surprise
Robert Armstrong (FT) Jun 21, 2021
There was a market that had lost touch with reality.

Petty protectionism will not help European bank prospects
Patrick Jenkins (FT) Jun 21, 2021
Freezing big groups out of EU Recovery Fund syndication will do nothing to narrow transatlantic investment banking gulf.

The Pandemic Stimulus Was Front-Loaded. That Could Mean a Bumpy Year.
Neil Irwin (NYT) Jun 21, 2021
There's a risk that the affluent, who saved money by limiting things like traveling and dining out, will sit on their cash rather than spend it.

The Week Inflation Panic Died
Paul Krugman (NYT) Jun 21, 2021
Don't worry: Lumber is falling and the Fed is on the case.

A bipartisan infrastructure bill proves our democracy can still work
Christopher A. Coons (WP) Jun 21, 2021
We now have a chance to strengthen our competitiveness and boost our economy.

Shenzhen's home prices soaring up and up
Frank Chen (AT) Jun 21, 2021
Shenzhen's scorching realty market is the hottest among China's top-tier cities as demand outstrips supply in the post-pandemic era. Cheap money has stoked rampant speculation and sent home prices soaring in China's burgeoning tech hub, beyond the reach of most locals there.

Global markets adapt to a change in the Federal Reserve's tone
Economist Jun 20, 2021
After an unsettling week, investors have to retune.

Central Banks See No Way out of the Low Interest Rate Trap
Thomas Mayer and Gunther Schnabl (Mises Wire) Jun 21, 2021
The last time a major central bank knowingly tried to end a low-rate policy regime occurred in Japan in the late 1980s. Since then, no central banker has wanted to repeat this unhappy experience.

Where Will You Go When a Robot Takes Your Job?
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Jun 21, 2021
The U.S. government must assuage people's anxiety about technology upending their working lives, in part by helping them forge new career paths.

Deciding Humanity's Future
Johan Rockström, Marcia McNutt, and Brian Schmidt (Project Syndicate) Jun 21, 2021
By announcing shared climate and biodiversity targets for 2030, G7 leaders this month made a promising step in the right direction, setting the stage for further progress at major global summits later this year. Still, what we really need is a fundamental change in our relationship with the planet.

The Robots Are Coming. Is Your Firm Ready?
K@W Jun 21, 2021
Forget the dystopian vision of robots replacing humans at work. A new study shows how automation is increasing the demand for workers, even though it's driving down the need for managers.

Will a Global Minimum Corporate Tax Work?
Lynn Wu (K@W) Jun 21, 2021
Coordination among countries will be critical to ensure that some don't undercut the G7 nations' proposed 15% minimum corporate tax.

The Economy's Response to Potential Climate Policy
Stephie Fried, Kevin Novan, and William B. Peterman (FRBSF Econ Letter) Jun 21, 2021
Uncertainty about U.S. climate policy in the future creates risk that affects the investment decisions businesses make today. If firms expect future policy to raise the cost of carbon emissions, then they could react to this by both shifting investment towards cleaner capital and reducing overall investment. These two responses lead to lower emissions, even if no actual climate policy is in place. Evidence suggests that this risk encourages companies to voluntarily reduce emissions using internal carbon prices and other mechanisms.

The return of big government spending: Will this time be really different?
Sebastian Becker (DB Research) Jun 21, 2021
Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic the US has launched fiscal packages worth USD 5.3 trillion (25.5% of GDP). With new fiscal plans in the pipeline the total stimulus could even exceed USD 9 trillion (or 40% of 2020 GDP). Although the success of this bold US experiment is far from certain, it has started a new trend in fiscal policies. As low interest rates have depressed governments' interest bills – despite surging debt – many observers advocate to make greater use of deficit spending for funding a public investment campaign over the next decade. Given weak growth prospects, restoring debt sustainability seems a Herculean task for high debt countries. But even some "fiscally prudent" countries like Germany face severe fiscal challenges due to rapid population ageing.

The reflation trade lives
Robert Armstrong (FT) Jun 22, 2021
If you believed in it a week ago, believe in it now.

Surging fortunes of India Inc contrast with Covid trauma
Benjamin Parkin (FT) Jun 22, 2021
Foreign investors pour money in as companies thrive despite pandemic's brutal second wave.

The healing of democracies starts at home
Martin Wolf (FT) Jun 22, 2021
The principal threats to western values come not from China but from inside our own societies.

The Federal Reserve chair says the United States needs 'more inclusive prosperity.'
Jeanna Smialek (NYT) Jun 22, 2021
Jerome H. Powell, speaking before House lawmakers, played down chances of economic overheating and emphasized the importance of full employment.

Markets Have a Thing or Two to Tell the Fed About Inflation
Lisa Abramowicz (Bloomberg View) Jun 22, 2021
Jerome Powell doubled down on the "transitory" message in light of a generally flattening yield curve and lower long-term expectations for rising prices.

The G7 should go full-throttle on its vaccine agenda: It will save lives and pay for itself
Joseph E. Gagnon and Steven Kamin (PIIE) Jun 21, 2021
The most urgent and immediate challenge faced by the world today is to quell the COVID-19 pandemic. Vaccinating the world's adult population of 6 billion people against the disease will require about 12 billion doses. But only about 2 billion doses have been administered so far, nearly all in the advanced economies. A substantial acceleration of the global vaccination program is critical. It will not only save thousands or even millions of lives—as indicated by the research we've conducted over the past several months—but it will also pay for itself by allowing a reduction of social distancing and lockdown restrictions, thereby boosting economic growth both in the developing countries and in the G7 itself.

Brexit's Collateral Damage
Chris Patten (Project Syndicate) Jun 22, 2021
Five years after the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union, the costs of that decision are becoming clearer. Most perniciously, trust in Britain is declining fast as Prime Minister Boris Johnson denies the consequences of the post-Brexit agreement he reached regarding Northern Ireland.

US firms market power has declined due to import competition
Mary Amiti and Sebastian Heise (VoxEU) Jun 22, 2021
A number of studies have documented that market concentration among US firms has increased over the last decades, as large firms have grown more dominant. This column examines whether this means that large US firms have more market power in the manufacturing sector. It shows that tougher import competition contributed to the rise in the dominance of large US firms over the last few decades, but also reduced US firms' market share (as a share of all sales inclusive of foreign firms) in the US market. These findings suggest that US firms' market power in manufacturing industries has in fact declined as foreign firms' market share has grown.

Cryptocurrency Isn't All Bad
Mark Leon Goldberg (FP) Jun 22, 2021
The blockchain holds the key to sustainable development for the world's poorest people.

A Better Boom
James Manyika and Michael Spence (FA) Jun 22, 2021
How to capture the pandemic's productivity potential.

China's Economic Reckoning
Daniel H. Rosen (FA) Jun 22, 2021
The price of failed reforms.

Downward spiral in liquidity is leading to more market shocks
Rishabh Bhandari (FT) Jun 23, 2021
Sudden droughts exacerbate rising episodes of stress for investors.

Young people must be at the heart of the global recovery
The Prince of Wales (FT) Jun 23, 2021
We must harness the innovation of the private sector to create green jobs that can benefit the next generation.

Are Asia's FX reserves enough to weather a storm?
William Pesek (AT) Jun 23, 2021
As the post-Covid-19 reflation scare upends investment portfolios everywhere, Asia risks once again being caught in the nude as oceans of liquidity suddenly dry up. The region's developing nations are, however, sitting on their highest FX reserves since August 2014, giving Asia a much-needed guardrail should economies veer toward turmoil.

Australians favor neutrality in a US-China war
Michelle Grattan (AT) Jun 23, 2021
China-Australia relations have plummeted in recent years, with obstacles currently in place against a range of Australian exports, frequent denunciations of Australia by China, and its government's continued refusal to return Australian ministers' calls. Poll shows Australians' trust in China is in 'steep decline' but 57% think Canberra shouldn't take sides in a US-China conflict.

What to expect from the ECB's monetary policy strategy review?
Maria Demertzis (Bruegel) Jun 23, 2021
Emphasis will be placed on greening monetary policy and clarifying the ECB's price stability objective, but is this enough?

Low-Income Developing Countries Will Surely Need More Debt Relief Down the Line
Benedict Clements, Sanjeev Gupta, João Tovar Jalles and Victor Mylonas (CGD) Jun 23, 2021
What can we learn from past episodes of fiscal tightening?

Fiscal policies for a low-carbon economy
Marcello Estevão (Brookings) Jun 23, 2021
The growth of green bonds.

Inflation Inflection
Tiffany Wilding and Andrew Balls (PIMCO) Jun 23, 2021
We expect the global economy to continue its uneven recovery and inflation to peak in the coming months – but the exact timing and magnitude is uncertain. Learn what this means for investors and how we're positioning to hedge risk and capitalize on the opportunities ahead.

Millennials, the Wealthiest Generation? Believe It
Allison Schrager (Bloomberg View) Jun 23, 2021
The world has changed since Boomers were young adults, and so has the value of housing, education and a steady job.

Brexit Five Years After Referendum Shows No Gain, Just Pain
Matthew A Winkler (Bloomberg View) Jun 23, 2021
Strong gains in GDP are belied by deteriorating productivity, eroding global trade and a weakened currency.

Bank of England May Beat the Fed to Tapering
Marcus Ashworth and Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Jun 23, 2021
The U.K. central bank is well placed to seize any first-mover advantage in reducing economic stimulus.

Millennials, the Wealthiest Generation? Believe It
Allison Schrager (Bloomberg View) Jun 23, 2021
The world has changed since Boomers were young adults, and so has the value of housing, education and a steady job.

The Fight Against Corruption in Central America Needs to Get Ugly
Shannon K O'Neil (Bloomberg View) Jun 23, 2021
When the region's governments are such problematic partners, going around and after them is the only solution.

Accommodating China Is Unavoidable
Andrew Sheng and Xiao Geng (Project Syndicate) Jun 23, 2021
"Absolute national security" might have been a reasonable goal for the US when the country stood at the helm of a unipolar world order. But in today's world, attempting to "contain and confront" those with different values or systems, rather than negotiating a new global compact that accommodates them, is a recipe for conflict.

The Chinese Economy's Great Wall
Jim O'Neill (Project Syndicate) Jun 23, 2021
For better or worse, China and its economic policies now play a decisive role in the global economy, giving everyone an interest in its efforts to increase its own domestic consumption spending. But for China to reach its current growth targets, it will need to change its approach to the world.

Building an Inclusive, Networked UN
María Fernanda Espinosa and Danilo Turk (Project Syndicate) Jun 23, 2021
UN Secretary-General António Guterres' call for networked and inclusive multilateralism is prompting a healthy and consequential rethink of global governance. Reforms in this area can help the UN system keep pace with a wide range of pressing international challenges.

Beware America's Soaring Public Debt
Michael J. Boskin (Project Syndicate) Jun 23, 2021
In the near term, strong economic growth could shield US President Joe Biden from the consequences of his reckless spending. But if his administration's growth forecasts prove excessively optimistic – or even if they turn out to be accurate – he may come to regret it.

The G7 Vaccine Charade
James K. Galbraith (Project Syndicate) Jun 23, 2021
The US and Europe are offering low- and middle-income countries crumbs, so that they can protect their billionaires, their pharmaceutical lobbies, and their campaign contributions. This has created an opening for China and Russia – and both are rushing into the breach.

China's Rebalancing and Gender Inequality
Mariya Brussevich, Era Dabla-Norris, and Bin Grace Li (VoxChina) Jun 23, 2021
This study documents women's declining relative wages and labor force participation in China over the last two decades, in contrast with the predictions of the structural transformation literature, suggesting that rising service sector share is associated with narrowing gender gaps. We show that women's labor supply elasticity to spouse's wages increased dramatically between 1995 and 2013, which is consistent with a U-shaped relationship between economic development and women's labor market outcomes. Using a model of structural transformation, we show that labor market barriers for women have increased over time and that removing these barriers and increasing service sector productivity can boost both gender equality and economic growth in China.

Understanding global value chains by accounting for firm heterogeneity in US production within industries
James Fetzer, Tina Highfill, Kassu Hossiso, Tom F. Howells III, Erich H. Strassner, and Jeffrey A. Young (VoxEU) Jun 23, 2021
Research has shown that multinational enterprises located in the US account for roughly 90% of US exports of goods and for over 90% of exports of selected services. While these estimates show that multinationals clearly dominate trading activity of gross exports, they overstate the role of multinationals in US exports since non-multinationals are an important part of the production supply chain and make significant contributions to the value embodied in these exports. This column uses experimental Trade in Value Added statistics estimated from extended supply-use tables for the US for 2005 and 2012 to show that both multinational and non-multinational firms contribute significant amounts of content embodied in US exports.

The Economics of Deep Trade Agreements
Ana Fernandes, Nadia Rocha, and Michele Ruta (VoxEU) Jun 23, 2021
While multilateral trade negotiations have stagnated and tensions between major players have surged, bilateral and regional agreements seem to have run away with the trade agenda. There are over 300 agreements today, up from 50 in 1990. Most importantly, many of these agreements have extended their reach well beyond tariffs, aiming to achieve integration beyond trade, or 'deep' integration. This column introduces a new eBook from CEPR and the World Bank that focuses on the determinants of deep trade agreements, how they affect trade and non-trade outcomes, and how they might shape trade relations in a post-COVID-19 world.

A blueprint for central bank digital currencies
FT View Jun 24, 2021
Threats to privacy come from the state as well as technology companies.

There is nothing 'super' about this commodities cycle
Jumana Saleheen (FT) Jun 24, 2021
Prices set to remain high for years but for less than a decade, as pace of demand eases.

Money market funds: the tale of two diverging paths
Wenxin Du (FT) Jun 24, 2021
The role of key funding pillars for financial system has been transformed.

This Is the Plan to Rescue Poor Countries From the Pandemic
Peter S. Goodman and Alan Rappeport (NYT) Jun 24, 2021
A proposal advanced by the International Monetary Fund aims to supply the developing world with extra money to buy vaccines, pay down debt and expand relief programs.

Four Facts about Soaring Consumer Food Prices
Christian Bogmans, Andrea Pescatori, and Ervin Prifti (IMF) Jun 24, 2021
Emerging markets and low-income countries are more vulnerable to food price shocks.

Who are the better forecasters of inflation, bond traders or economists?
Joseph E. Gagnon and Madi Sarsenbayev (PIIE) Jun 24, 2021
Consumer price index (CPI) inflation hit a multi-decade high of 5 percent in May 2021 (12-month change), sparking considerable speculation as to how long inflation will remain high. Readings from the bond market suggest inflation will drop all the way to the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target in 2022, whereas economic forecasters see continued above-target inflation of around 2.5 percent.[1] The bond market has been somewhat better than economists at predicting inflation over a one-to-two-year horizon, suggesting a return to 2 percent inflation next year. However, neither bond markets nor economists have a great track record at forecasting inflation, so more persistent inflation cannot be ruled out.

The Fed's Interest Rate Target Is Obsolete
William C Dudley (Bloomberg View) Jun 24, 2021
There's a better way to manage monetary policy.

Shrinkflation Is an Economic Monster Worth Watching
Stephen Mihm (Bloomberg View) Jun 24, 2021
When inflation strikes, retailers have a proven strategy to pass the costs on to consumers.

Automation Is a Race the U.S. Can't Afford to Lose
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Jun 24, 2021
Techno-pessimists are holding back progress, threatening to erode the country's competitiveness and create shortages of crucial goods.

Pandemics and Political Performance
Francis Fukuyama and Luis Felipe Lopez Calva (Project Syndicate) Jun 24, 2021
The huge variation in how countries have performed during the pandemic points to deeper underlying political and governance issues that have now come fully into view. In many countries, especially in Latin America and the Caribbean, the road ahead will be long and difficult.

Three Warnings for Emerging Economies
Kaushik Basu (Project Syndicate) Jun 24, 2021
The most recent World Bank outlook for emerging markets and developing economies is especially significant because of the cautionary messages it contains. Whereas rich countries appear set to return to or even exceed their pre-pandemic growth rates, the developing world's prospects are more mixed.

In Bitcoin We Trust?
Paola Subacchi (Project Syndicate) Jun 24, 2021
Coordinated cross-border policies are needed to ensure that cryptocurrencies don't do more harm than good in developing countries. Unless both the public and private sectors embrace critical reforms, people and governments will increasingly be attracted by low-cost, high-risk, and murky alternatives to traditional banking.

How to Feed Ourselves
Gilbert F. Houngbo (Project Syndicate) Jun 24, 2021
Climate change is accelerating, biodiversity is plummeting, hunger and extreme poverty are skyrocketing, and the gap between rich and poor is widening. Reversing these trends will require a shared effort to upgrade, and even rebuild, the systems on which we all depend – beginning with the global food system.

A multilateral initiative to boost trade along global supply chains for least developed countries
Alessandro Antimiani and Lucian Cernat (VoxEU) Jun 24, 2021
Many believe that the global trading system could offer little more to least developed countries beyond the various unilateral preferential schemes currently in place. This column argues that there is room for new multilateral initiatives to strengthen the participation of these countries in global value chains. It avocates for a new 'GVCs for LDCs' global preferential scheme based on least developed countries' value added, thereby covering exports by these countries along the entire supply chain. Estimates suggest that such a scheme would increase global trade, improve least developed countries' value added, and promote further value chain integration between these and other developing countries.

Rich non-responders in surveys
Martin Ravallion (VoxEU) Jun 24, 2021
Surveys are an often unreliable method for measuring top incomes, due largely to low compliance rates among rich households. This column proposes a way to correct for selective compliance. Using the geographic distribution of survey-response rates to calculate how the household-level probability of agreeing to be interviewed varies with own-income and other covariates, the method improves on ad hoc approaches to reweighting survey data. A behavioural micro model of compliance can more accurately reveal top income recipients, thereby updating tax records and refining redistributive policies.

International Economic Outlook: June 2021
Nick Bennenbroek and Brendan McKenna (WF Econ Group) Jun 24, 2021
An uneven pace of respective economic recoveries has resulted in diverging paths of monetary policy from major central banks. Despite a modest hawkish shift at its latest meeting, the Fed is likely to keep monetary policy accommodative for the time being, while many international central banks are likely to continue their monetary policy normalization cycles. We believe the renewed strength in the U.S. dollar will prove temporary, and we maintain our view for a weaker dollar over the medium-to-longer-term. A patient Fed relative to more proactive foreign central banks, should weigh on the greenback over time. We continue to be optimistic on the prospects for G10 and emerging market currencies going forward. While we believe there is upside in many emerging market currencies, shifts in local political dynamics can weigh on certain currencies, particularly in Latin America. The rise of left-leaning populist leaders in Chile and Peru could restrain the peso and sol, while demonstrations across Colombia could result in a socialist candidate emerging ahead of next year's Presidential election and inject new volatility into the Colombian peso.

A contest to control crypto is under way
Gillian Tett (FT) Jun 25, 2021
Central banks and other established institutions pit themselves against looser crowd-like networks.

Asia stays calm amid US inflation jitters
William Pesek (AT) Jun 25, 2021
It's safe to say Jerome Powell had Asia investors at "wait." Markets in the region rallied on cue Wednesday as the Federal Reserve chairman made clear that rumors of an imminent US interest rate tightening were greatly exaggerated. While the Fed may be falling behind the inflation curve, the region's central banks and consumers aren't panicking yet.

Cambodia's economy at a rocky Covid crossroads
David Hutt (AT) Jun 25, 2021
Recent reports from China's Xinhua and several Phnom Penh-based newspapers about Cambodia's economic prospects this year have given some reason for cheer. Given the worsening pandemic situation in Cambodia, which is still spiking upwards, the World Bank made two forecasts: one most positive and one most pessimistic.

BRICS could be the world's economic beacon
Ken Moak (AT) Jun 25, 2021
The BRICS countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – could recover from the Covid-19 pandemic and its induced recession more quickly if India and Brazil work with China instead of fight it. In doing so, the BRICS could pull the world economy on an upward trajectory for a number of reasons.

Mario Draghi's Warning to Europe Is Right On
Lionel Laurent (Bloomberg View) Jun 25, 2021
The EU's 750 billion-euro stimulus plan is a big deal. But with so much lost ground to recover, more ambition is needed.

Is the Fed Getting Burned Again?
John B. Taylor (Project Syndicate) Jun 25, 2021
As in the stagflationary 1970s, the US Federal Reserve is once again denying that its own policies are the reason for a recent surge of inflation, even though there is good reason to think that they are. It is not too late to learn from past mistakes and reverse course – but the clock is quickly ticking down.

America's Muddled Industrial Policy
Anne O. Krueger (Project Syndicate) Jun 25, 2021
With the US Innovation and Competition Act of 2021, America is fully embracing industrial policy as the all-encompassing solution to a wide range of economic, social, and strategic problems. But all of the objectives articulated in the bill could be achieved more effectively by other means.

How Great Powers Should Compete
Michael Spence (Project Syndicate) Jun 25, 2021
Both China and the West espouse some version of multilateralism. But unfettered strategic competition, together with relentlessly negative rhetoric, precludes effective multilateralism, not least by disrupting trade and technology transfer – a crucial driver of development.

Market Power Is Eating the Economy
Jan Eeckhout (Project Syndicate) Jun 25, 2021
While economic observers have long worried about the growing dominance of Big Tech, few have apprehended the sheer scale of the problem. Today's technologies have handed exorbitant market power to dominant players across all sectors, to the detriment of the vast majority of people.

Globalisation: A woman's best friend? Not for all
Alessandra Bonfiglioli and Federica De Pace (VoxEU) Jun 25, 2021
The rise in income inequality and, more prominently, in the wage gap between men and women has been one of the major concerns among policymakers and the public in recent years. This column presents new evidence from Germany on the impact of exports on the gender wage gap which shows that an increase in a plant's exports significantly reduces the wage gap between male and female co-workers in white-collar occupations, but widens it for employees in blue-collar occupations. The findings suggest that designing policies that support women taking part in trade, especially in positions in which they would benefit from their comparative advantage, is crucial to maximise the potential benefits from globalisation.

Immigration and the UK economy after Brexit
Jonathan Portes (VoxEU) Jun 25, 2021
The tide on public sentiment towards immigration in the UK – and economists' views on Brexit's economic impact – may be turning. This column discusses the UK's post-Brexit migration system introduced in January 2021. It argues that the new system, while ending free movement with the EU and hence being far more restrictive for EU citizens moving to the UK for work, is considerably less restrictive.

Multinationals and local development: Evidence from the United Fruit Company
Esteban Méndez-Chacón and Diana Van Patten (VoxDev) Jun 25, 2021
Investment in amenities by large foreign companies induced by labour market competition can have persistent positive effects on local living standards

Rising market uncertainties to test investors
Michael Mackenzie (FT) Jun 26, 2021
After impressive gains from pandemic lows, questions mount over how much further equities can rise.

The international role of the euro
Economist Jun 26, 2021
Europe's currency aspirations are getting a boost.

The geopolitical relevance of central bank digital currencies
Brunello Rosa and Alessandro Tentori (VoxEU) Jun 26, 2021
Digital currencies are becoming increasingly present on both research and policy agendas, including for central banks. This column explores the geopolitical role of central bank digital currencies, with a particular focus on China. It argues that such currencies could be useful as a means for central banks to record transactions in an increasingly cashless economy and could help improve central banks' monetary transmission. Nonetheless, the risk of cyber-attacks should not be overlooked.

Britain suffers from outdated thinking on innovation
Hetan Shah (FT) Jun 27, 2021
For the government's new strategy to be any good, it must reflect the reality of the UK economy.

Banks cannot expect government to bail them out of every crisis
Neel Kashkari (FT) Jun 28, 2021
They must increase their equity funding to protect against the next unexpected shock.

Emerging markets, the Fed, and the virus
Robert Armstrong (FT) Jun 28, 2021
There is a, just barely, contrarian case for bullishness on EMs.

Raisi faces a do or die economic dilemma
Kourosh Ziabari (AT) Jun 28, 2021
Speculation is rife in Iran over who will steer the economy under President-elect Ebrahim Raisi, the conservative cleric and judicial head who clinched an easy victory in the June 18 election. Experts are already casting doubt on his ability to remedy the economy given his limited statecraft experience and the ambiguity surrounding his economic recovery plans.

The Stimulus Boom Is Already Over. Now Comes Stagnation.
Daniel Lacalle (Mises Wire) Jun 28, 2021
It's already clear that after an initial sugar high caused by stimulus funds, there's now hardly any "bang for the buck" from stimulus funds. In fact, governments are spending millions for each job "created" by stimulus.

Sub-Saharan Africa: We Need to Act Now
Kristalina Georgieva and Abebe Aemro Selassie (IMF) Jun 28, 2021
Sub-Saharan Africa is in the grips of a third wave of COVID-19 infections that threatens to be even more brutal than the two that came before.

All Together Now: 'Tighter Policy Isn't Tight Policy'
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg View) Jun 28, 2021
Investors are getting squirrelly about hawkish signals from global central banks. The most important ones are likely to remain relatively loose.

The End of Globalization as We Know It
Jean Pisani-Ferry (Project Syndicate) Jun 28, 2021
The tension between the unprecedented need for global collective action and a growing aspiration to rebuild political communities behind national borders is a defining challenge for today's policymakers. And it is currently unclear whether they can reconcile the two agendas.

Techno-Feudalism Is Taking Over
Yanis Varoufakis (Project Syndicate) Jun 28, 2021
The claim that capitalism is being toppled by a new economic mode comes on the heels of many premature forecasts of capitalism's demise, especially from the left. But this time it may well be true, and the signs that it is have been visible for a while.

America's False Imbalance Syndrome
Jeffrey Frankel (Project Syndicate) Jun 28, 2021
US media often report that a particular policy is generally considered bad or unpopular, when in reality it seeks to achieve a reasonable trade-off between competing forces or goals. There have been three recent examples of this practice that highlight the problem.

Africa's Human-Capital Imperative
Carl Manlan (Project Syndicate) Jun 28, 2021
Even though African governments were warned by the not-so-distant outbreaks of Ebola, most still have not put health and other human-capital investments at the center of their economic strategies. Until this changes, all of the region's other aspirations will remain out of reach.

New patterns of profit shifting emerge from country-by-country data
Paolo Acciari, Barbara Bratta, and Vera Santomartino (VoxEU) Jun 28, 2021
G7 finance ministers recently committed to a global minimum tax rate for multinational enterprises. A key objective is to reduce profit shifting by large enterprises. This column uses new microdata to show how the profit-shifting response to tax rate changes depends on tax rate differentials. Profit shifting is significantly more sensitive to tax rate changes in countries with tax rates lower than the world average, and less sensitive in countries close to the average. As a result, policies aimed at guaranteeing a minimum level of taxation may be effective and efficient in curbing profit shifting by reducing tax rate differentials.

The Build Back Better World Partnership Could Finally Break the Belt and Road
Gregory W. Meeks (FP) Jun 28, 2021
When nations are freed from China's oppressive debt practices, economies across the world can achieve sustainable growth through trade, stability, and collective prosperity.

Monetary policy is not the solution to inequality
Martin Wolf (FT) Jun 29, 2021
But the necessary structural reforms will be harder than many economists imagine.

Archegos revealed flaws of markets that still need to be tackled
Satyajit Das (FT) Jun 29, 2021
Systemic problems around the use of collateral in trading remain.

Our Financial Early Warning System Is Broken
Robert Glenn Hubbard and Donald L Kohn (Bloomberg View) Jun 29, 2021
Two agencies set up by Dodd-Frank could be a lot more useful than they have been.

South Korea's Health-Centered Development Model
Lee Jong-Wha (Project Syndicate) Jun 29, 2021
The COVID-19 pandemic is an unprecedented challenge that underscores both the fundamental value of health and the importance of well-functioning and resilient universal health coverage. South Korea's success in building such a system should encourage today's lower-income countries to make a similar commitment.

The Appalling Increase in Child Labor
Kailash Satyarthi (Project Syndicate) Jun 29, 2021
There can be no excuse for the fact that child labor has increased for the first time in two decades. World leaders must give the poorest and most marginalized children their fair share of global wealth by channeling it through development assistance that bolsters social protection and supports targeted policies.

The effects of Federal Open Market Committee voting rights rotation
Michael Ehrmann, Robin Tietz, and Bauke Visser (VoxEU) Jun 29, 2021
Most of the Reserve Bank presidents of the Federal Open Market Committee of the US Federal Reserve System have rotating voting rights. This column discusses new evidence that having the right to vote makes them more involved, which affects their meeting interventions and their inter-meeting speeches. This matters for financial markets – asset prices react less to speeches delivered by presidents when they have the right to vote.

Stock-picking for humanity
Ellen Quigley (Aeon) Jun 29, 2021
Everyone on the planet has a stake in making investment more ethical. What's new is that they have the power to do so too

The inherent instability of the Goldilocks market consensus
Mohamed El-Erian (FT) Jun 30, 2021
Too much confidence is placed in the view that inflation rises will be transitory.

The age of secular stagnation may be drawing to a close
Arvind Subramanian (FT) Jun 30, 2021
Joe Biden's stimulus packages could act as the jolt the global economy needs.

Emerging market bonds: don't fear rate rises just yet
Lex (FT) Jun 30, 2021
Healthy yields keep buyers returning for more.

Fed Unity Cracks as Inflation Rises and Officials Debate Future
Jeanna Smialek and Jim Tankersley (NYT) Jun 30, 2021
Federal Reserve officials are debating what to do as price risks loom, even as its leaders and the White House say today's surge will most likely cool.

Prioritizing People to Build Back the Economy
Rashida Tlaib and Eduardo Suplicy (NYT) Jun 30, 2021
A robust and inclusive safety net more than pays for itself.

When the US risks being leapfrogged
Reuven Brenner (AT) Jun 30, 2021
Three decades ago many fretted that Japan was set to overwhelm America's prowess; now it's China and the fears are eerily similar, and books since then have been about Japan's compounding fiscal and monetary policy mistakes, and obstacles its homogenous culture and lack of immigration pose.

How Can Countries Use their SDRs?
David Andrews and Mark Plant (CGD) Jun 30, 2021
What are the uses of SDRs?

Workers can unlock the artificial intelligence revolution
Mia Hoffmann and Laura Nurski (Bruegel) Jun 30, 2021
Employers and artificial intelligence developers should ensure new technologies work for workers by making them trustworthy, easy to use and valuable in day-to-day work.

OPEC+ Flexibility Needs to Cut Both Ways
Julian Lee (Bloomberg View) Jun 30, 2021
The oil producers' group should agree to a bigger-than-expected output increase. After all, it can always reverse course if things don't go as planned.

Colombia's Triple Crisis
Mauricio Cárdenas (Project Syndicate) Jun 30, 2021
Colombians need political leadership that responds to the current anger in the streets with effective strategies to tackle the country's social and fiscal crises, while relying on increased vaccination to defeat the pandemic. But with the radical right and populist left on the rise, expecting this anytime soon is wishful thinking.

The Looming Stagflationary Debt Crisis
Nouriel Roubini (Project Syndicate) Jun 30, 2021
Years of ultra-loose fiscal and monetary policies have put the global economy on track for a slow-motion train wreck in the coming years. When the crash comes, the stagflation of the 1970s will be combined with the spiraling debt crises of the post-2008 era, leaving major central banks in an impossible position.

Transforming Education After the Pandemic
Julia Gillard (Project Syndicate) Jun 30, 2021
The COVID-19 crisis has hit the most vulnerable children hardest and exposed the worsening inequality of learning opportunities. Governments and international organizations must deliver a global recovery based on providing quality education for all children.

The Key to Development
Anita Zaidi (Project Syndicate) Jun 30, 2021
Gender is a factor in almost every area of development, from economic outcomes to public health. Now that the COVID-19 pandemic has imposed disproportionate costs on women and girls, global efforts to ensure equality will have to be redoubled.

Firms' inflation expectations and pricing strategies during Covid-19
Marco Bottone, Cristina Conflitti, Marianna Riggi, and Alex Tagliabracci (VoxEU) Jun 30, 2021
How has the Covid-19 shock affected firms' pricing choices and inflation expectations? Using a rich survey of Italian firms, this column documents that planned price changes and inflation expectations appear to have been driven by the expected duration of the downturn and by the strength of competitive pressures. It finds no effects of liquidity and financial conditions, which were major drivers of corporate pricing policies during the Great Recession and the sovereign debt crisis, on pricing strategies during the pandemic.

How Transitory? Structural Forces and the Inflation Outlook
Sarah House, Shannon Seery, and Sara Cotsakis (WF Econ Group) Jun 30, 2021
In this report, we unpack the major structural dynamics that thwarted inflation from consistently reaching 2% prior to the pandemic. The degree to which these forces reassert themselves will influence if inflation easily falls back to the Fed's target or causes the current 2%+ environment to be more persistent.