News & Commentary:

Articles/Commentary

An opportunity for China to improve ties with foreign investors
FT View Jun 1, 2022
Beijing ought to rethink not just Covid policies but how it treats overseas companies.

Global rate gaps loom large for investors
Claire Jones (FT) Jun 1, 2022
From neutral to negative, central banks are taking vastly different paths.

What the battle between gold bugs and crypto bros tells us about commodities
Alan Futerman and Ivo Sarjanovic (FT) Jun 1, 2022
Trading the complex asset class should be based on fundamentals rather than just as a mere reaction to inflation.

Just say no
Jay Newman (FT) Jun 1, 2022
China has sprung a debt trap on many developing countries.

Can Africa grow without fossil fuels?
David Pilling (FT) Jun 1, 2022
As the developed world demands emissions cuts, the continent's leaders are asking whether it is possible to industrialise on green energy alone

Global rate gaps loom large for investors
Global rate gaps loom large for investors (FT) Jun 5, 2022
From neutral to negative, central banks are taking vastly different paths.

Inflation Isn't Transitory, but It Isn't Permanent Either
Alan S. Blinder (WSJ) Jun 1, 2022
While the Fed has interest-rate work to do, food and energy prices will level off and supply chains will heal.

Japan's Digitalization Can Add Momentum for Economic Rebound
Piyaporn Sodsriwiboon, Purva Khera, and Rui Xu (IMF) Jun 1, 2022
The Japanese economy is recovering from the pandemic as related uncertainty and supply constraints subside and consumption gradually rebounds.

Tipping point crossed at IMF meetings
Christian Kopf (OMFIF) Jun 1, 2022
Discussions at IMF meetings have always been centred around efforts to promote international co-operation and global trade with the aim of improving the economic situation for all. The goal of enhanced co-operation on economic and monetary issues, enshrined in the IMF's articles of agreement, was always beyond question. But that is no longer the case. We are at an epochal turning point against the backdrop of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Dollar Dominance and the Rise of Nontraditional Reserve Currencies
Serkan Arslanalp, Barry Eichengreen and Chima Simpson-Bell (IMF) Jun 1, 2022
The US dollar has long played an outsized role in global markets. It continues to do so even as the American economy has been producing a shrinking share of global output over the last two decades.

The Next Stablecoin Collapse Could Be a Lot Worse
Bloomberg View Jun 1, 2022
Regulate stablecoins now, before another crash triggers the next financial crisis.

Federal Reserve's Mild Inflation Forecasts Need Explaining
William C Dudley (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 1, 2022
The central bank should be more realistic in its own projections about what will be required in terms of tightening monetary policy.

Don't Wish for the Fed to Pause Rate Hikes in September
Mohamed A El-Erian (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 1, 2022
It probably won't be possible unless the economy worsens considerably or the central bank slips again.

The ECB's Interest-Rate Balancing Act
Jens van 't Klooster (Project Syndicate) Jun 1, 2022
Regulate stablecoins now, before another crash triggers the next financial crisis.

Explaining the trade reform wave of 1985–1995
Douglas Irwin (VoxEU) Jun 1, 2022
The decade from 1985 to 1995 saw the greatest reduction in global trade barriers in world history. This column explores the sudden burst of unilateral trade reforms adopted by many developing countries in that period. Ideas were changing about the merits of exchange rate adjustment over import controls. As more economists were appointed as senior policymakers around the world, they sought to shift policy to earning more foreign exchange, favouring devaluation and liberalisation of import controls. The 'third wave' of democratisation also played a role.

The great carbon arbitrage
Tobias Adrian, Patrick Bolton, and Alissa Kleinnijenhuis (VoxEU) Jun 1, 2022
Attempts to phase out coal have faltered amid fears that the transition to renewable energy would be too costly. By comparing the present value of avoided emissions with the present costs of replacing coal with renewable energy, this column estimates that the world can realise a net gain of $77.89 trillion by shifting to renewable energy. The benefits from ending coal are so large that carbon pricing and the other financing policies discussed here merit sustained attention.

Confronting a Perfect Long Storm
Tharman Shanmugaratnam (F&D) Jun 1, 2022
We must bridge growing divides and rewire multilateralism to serve both collective and national interests more effectively.

Shifting Geopolitical Tectonic Plates
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (F&D) Jun 1, 2022
A more fragmented world will need the IMF more, not less.

Enduring Preeminence
Eswar S. Prasad (F&D) Jun 1, 2022
The US dollar might slip, but it will continue to rule.

Turbulence and the Lessons of History
Patricia Clavin (F&D) Jun 1, 2022
Opportunities are born of crisis, but the lines that connect them are far from direct.

The Sanctions Weapon
Nicholas Mulder (F&D) Jun 1, 2022
Economic sanctions deliver bigger global shocks than ever before and are easier to evade.

New Energy Imperative
Gernot Wagner (F&D) Jun 1, 2022
Russia's invasion of Ukraine highlights the crisis and opportunity of the energy transition.

The Basic Skills Gap
Eric A. Hanushek and Ludger Woessmann (F&D) Jun 1, 2022
Meeting the SDGs is impossible without global universal basic skills, still a faraway goal.

Will Inflation Remain High?
Ruchir Agarwal & Miles Kimball (F&D) Jun 1, 2022
In the first installment of our three-part series on the future of inflation, we ask whether high inflation will persist and how central banks will respond.

How Costly Is Inflation?
Ruchir Agarwal & Miles Kimball (F&D) Jun 1, 2022
The second article in our three-part series examines the trade-offs from inflation.

The Electronic Money Standard and the Possibility of a Zero Inflation Target
Ruchir Agarwal & Miles Kimball (F&D) Jun 1, 2022
The final piece in our future of inflation series discusses how a move to an electronic money standard can lower the inflation target toward zero.

The Stretch of Supply Chains
Diego A. Cerdeiro & Niels-Jakob H. Hansen (F&D) Jun 1, 2022
The pandemic has reignited debate over global assembly lines that stretch around the world.

Sri Lanka's problems are an alarm call for emerging markets
FT View Jun 2, 2022
Rising rates and lower growth could lead to a wave of sovereign defaults.

CBDCs now hold wholesale appeal for central bankers
Gillian Tett (FT) Jun 2, 2022
The slow nature of current cross-border payments systems creates an opportunity for blockchain technology.

A regulatory shake-up that would give central banks too much power
Simon Samuels (FT) Jun 2, 2022
Proposal on capital rules could mean investors end up outsourcing their investment decision to the regulator.

How China's lockdown policies are crippling the country's economy
Ed White, Andy Lin, Dan Clark, Sam Joiner and Caroline Nevitt (FT) Jun 2, 2022
Xi Jinping's attempts to keep China free of Covid-19 are causing widespread damage to the world's second biggest economy.

There Is Way More Biden Can Do to Lower Prices
Ro Khanna (NYT) Jun 2, 2022
No one wants to hear politicians bicker about inflation's cause. They want to hear about how we can fix it.

The Perverse Politics of Inflation
Paul Krugman (NYT) Jun 2, 2022
Voters blame presidents for things they can't control.

Yuan-ruble trade boom a wakeup call for Biden
William Pesek (AT) Jun 2, 2022
Yuan-ruble trade volumes have surged 1,067% since the Ukraine war, putting new pressure on the dollar's reserve currency status.

Should China spend more on infrastructure?
Economist Jun 2, 2022
Such stimulus would be less wasteful than a recession.

The changing American consumer
Economist Jun 2, 2022
Could a shift from goods to services ease inflation?

Don't Be Fooled: The World's Central Bankers Still Love Inflation
Ryan McMaken (Mises Wire) Jun 2, 2022
The Bank of England, the European Central Bank, the American Fed, and the Bank of Japan are all talking a lot about inflation, but none are embracing any real change.

Hammering Inflation With a Gavel
Libby Cantrill and Allison Boxer (PIMCO) Jun 2, 2022
The Biden administration faces rampant inflation in the U.S. but has limited tools to stem the rise in gas and grocery prices.

Asia's tipping point in the consumer class
Wolfgang Fengler, Homi Kharas, and Juan Caballero (Brookings) Jun 2, 2022
A shadow loomed over Davos as global leaders from business and politics convened in the Swiss alpine resort last week: The war in Ukraine, rising inflation, and the disruption of supply chains dominated the discussions. Last year's optimism of pre-COVID and pre-war conferences has given way to stabilizing business and the international order in the short term. Indeed, short-term economic growth forecasts have been revised downwardly, but not as much as the popular sentiment would suggest. In the long term, faster growth is expected, especially in the emerging economies and Asia.

A Russian Default Won't Win the War
Bloomberg View Jun 2, 2022
If the US and its allies want to change the Kremlin's calculations, they should focus on oil and gas.

India Can't Afford to Lose the World's Trust on Trade
Mihir Sharma (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 2, 2022
Arbitrary and inconsistent restrictions on wheat, sugar and steel will undermine the country's efforts to entice value chains away from China.

New Financial Conditions, Same Climate Calculus
Brett Fleishman (Project Syndicate) Jun 2, 2022
While Russia's war in Ukraine has driven up energy prices and thus fossil-fuel stocks, the case for aligning investment strategies with the Paris climate agreement is as strong as ever. If financial institutions want to show that they are serving their shareholders' long-term interests, they will act accordingly.

Is China's Economic Miracle Over?
PS Commentators Jun 2, 2022
Shanghai's two-month COVID-19 lockdown may finally be easing, but the highly uncertain prognosis for China's battered economy could have major domestic and international implications. We asked PS commentators whether the country's consistently high growth rates are now a thing of the past.

Learning by using free trade agreements
Jonas Kasteng, Ari Kokko, Nils Norell, and Patrik Tingvall (VoxEU) Jun 2, 2022
Free trade agreements bring questions about how long it takes for firms to acquire the knowledge needed to utilise tariff preferences, and what determines learning outcomes. This column uses Swedish import transaction-level and firm-level data for the EU–South Korea free trade agreement from 2008 to 2018 to answer these questions. The authors find that firms learn about preference utilisation mainly by carrying out repeated import transactions; the number of years as an importer does not seem to matter.

Grumpy investors see bright side in growth risks
Katie Martin (FT) Jun 3, 2022
Slower pace of GDP expansion could mean a slower pace of monetary tightening by central banks.

Trouble ahead as the world food crisis starts to bite
David Pilling (FT) Jun 3, 2022
Instead of focusing on domestic yields, too many governments have sought to placate restless populations with imports.

ESG exposed in a world of changing priorities
Gillian Tett (FT) Jun 3, 2022
Investors ask hard questions of the market trend, but responsible investing will survive.

Is 'Greedflation' Rewriting Economics, or Do Old Rules Still Apply?
Lydia DePillis (NYT) Jun 3, 2022
Economists and politicians are debating whether monopolistic companies are fueling inflation in ways that confound longstanding theory.

To fight inflation, cutting tariffs on China is only the start
Megan Hogan and Yilin Wang (PIIE) Jun 3, 2022
An intense debate within the Biden administration about lowering tariffs imposed on China to fight inflation was acknowledged publicly during President Joseph R. Biden Jr.'s trip to Asia in late May. Speaking at a press conference in Tokyo on May 23, President Biden noted that tariffs on imports from China "were imposed by the last administration" and that reducing them was "under consideration." Earlier that month, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen signaled her own position, asserting that President Donald Trump's trade war tariffs on Chinese goods "impose more harm on consumers and businesses" while accomplishing nothing on issues relating to China.

The ECB Needs to Reset Europe's Monetary Policy
Bloomberg View Jun 3, 2022
The central bank had good reasons to hesitate over raising interest rates, but the balance of risks has changed.

Consumers Are Losers in a Booming Industrial Economy
Conor Sen (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 3, 2022
Manufacturing and construction are still going strong, and while that lowers the chances for a recession, it means higher prices will continue for most basic goods.

Europe's Oil Embargo Is Not Enough
Sergei Guriev (Project Syndicate) Jun 3, 2022
By announcing an embargo on about 90% of Russian oil imports within the next 6-8 months, the European Union is hitting Russian President Vladimir Putin where it hurts. But, unless Europe also imposes an immediate price cap on Russian energy imports, Putin will spend the next several months benefiting from sharply higher oil prices.

Just Say No to "Friend-Shoring"
Raghuram G. Rajan (Project Syndicate) Jun 3, 2022
Following major shocks to global supply chains in recent years, it is not surprising that governments are groping for new policies to build more resilience and ensure a continuous supply of critical inputs. But abandoning free and fair trade is not the answer.

The 'WTO rising' imperative
Richard Baldwin and Dmitry Grozoubinski (VoxEU) Jun 3, 2022
Climate change, the pandemic, and persistent economic and social inequalities threaten untold millions of lives. While trade alone cannot solve these threats, this column argues that viable solutions require more trade, and stronger multilateral trade governance. This means that world leaders must reimagine the WTO as critical to saving lives, not just livelihoods – a vital tool in the struggle against humanity's existential threats.

The EU's short 'romance' with the debt reduction rule
Martin Larch and Janis Malzubris (VoxEU) Jun 3, 2022
The notion that fiscal rules are necessary to safeguard fiscal responsibility is a widely accepted tenet of fiscal policy. However, experience with the implementation of EU fiscal rules has been mixed, driving a wedge between initial ambitions and outcomes. This column uses the latest update of the European Commission's compliance tracker to shed some light on the debate. In particular, it points out that if consistently followed over time, all numerical rules are equally demanding.

EM Debt in Distress? We Think So, Markets Agree
Brendan McKenna (Econ Group) Jun 3, 2022
In a recent publication, we highlighted our view that external and local conditions could be ripe for a meltdown across the emerging markets. We expressed our bearish outlook on emerging market currencies; however, also noted that sovereign debt across the developing world could also come under pressure. As emerging market debt ratios and debt affordability worsen, financial market indicators of sovereign creditworthiness have deteriorated. Credit default swaps are up, while the number of governments with bonds trading at distressed levels has jumped. For now, only Sri Lanka has defaulted; however, we believe multiple sovereigns are on the brink of imminent default. Should these governments miss payments, this new wave of EM sovereign defaults would be on par with defaults we saw during the depths of COVID in 2020.

Don't romanticise the global south
Janan Ganesh (FT) Jun 4, 2022
Its sympathy for Russia should change western liberals' sentimental view of the developing world.

Can buy now, pay later survive the cost of living crisis?
Siddharth Venkataramakrishnan (FT) Jun 4, 2022
High energy bills and rising inflation have raised doubts about a sector that relies on consumers who might struggle to meet repayments

Some hedge funds finally see market conditions to justify their existence
Laurence Fletcher (FT) Jun 4, 2022
Dispersion of stock performance has created opportunities for profit.

The cost of complexity in supply chains
Rana Foroohar (FT) Jun 5, 2022
Powerful middlemen distort global markets and drain revenues.

Food security now top priority for G20 cooperation
Peter Timmer (EAF) Jun 5, 2022
The world food situation has gone from bad to worse. The current crisis involves fuels, fertilizers and foods, especially wheat and vegetable oils. At the same time, the crisis is now more acute. All of these commodities are experiencing low inventories, curtailed production, and disrupted supply chains. It will not be easy to stop this crisis, much less return to more normal trade patterns. Coordination among the world's leading economies will be needed to make progress.

The Long-Lasting Legacy of a Short-Term Prime Minister
Gearoid Reidy (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 5, 2022
Yoshihide Suga's time leading Japan was brief, but his accomplishments are surprisingly formidable. It's time to give his reputation another look.

Russian asset seizures must follow the law
FT View Jun 6, 2022
The moral argument in using the country's foreign treasure to rebuild Ukraine is strong, but requires due process.

Mind the transatlantic bond gap
Michala Marcussen (FT) Jun 6, 2022
The spread in real bond yields in US and the eurozone is likely to narrow.

There is another act to come in this market drama
Ruchir Sharma (FT) Jun 6, 2022
History shows that a pause in losses is usually followed by a further spiral downwards.

Bias in public debt forecasts spells danger
Jonathan Ostry (FT) Jun 6, 2022
With a growing risk of defaults in the developing world, the reliability of projections needs urgent improvement.

The U.S. and Europe Have Different Inflation Problems
Jason Furman (WSJ) Jun 6, 2022
It's more painful on the Continent but more persistent and demand-driven in America.

The Path to a Soft Landing Is Getting a Little Easier
John Authers (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 6, 2022
It isn't inevitable that policy makers will crash the economy in their efforts to bring down inflation, even though the task remains fiendishly difficult.

Central Bankers Don't Know How to Tackle Inflation
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 6, 2022
Have the world's monetary policy makers just been lucky at keeping prices stable in recent years?

The Fed Risks Future Pain If It Fails to Curb Inflation Today
Ramesh Ponnuru (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 6, 2022
Want to learn from the mistakes of the 1970s? Then take action against rising prices now and reduce the greater torment that will come from waiting.

Brazil Points the Way Out of Inflation. Yes, You Read That Right
David Fickling (David Fickling) Jun 6, 2022
The country hasn't always had the most open trade policy. But it's loosening up just as much of the rest of the world is keeping tariffs on imports.

Will Europe's Embargo on Russian Oil Succeed?
Daniel Gros (Project Syndicate) Jun 6, 2022
Europe's decision to ban most Russian oil imports is based on a simple calculation: because the EU accounts for about half of Russia's oil exports, an embargo would roughly halve Russia's oil-export revenues. But the reality is more complicated.

What's the Crypto Regulation Endgame?
Kenneth Rogoff (Project Syndicate) Jun 6, 2022
Absent a crisis, stiffer regulation of cryptocurrencies could take many decades, especially given that major players are pouring huge sums into lobbying. But it probably won't take that long, because the crisis for private digital currencies is likely to come sooner rather than later.

Why central banks should aim for a positive inflation target
Klaus Adam, Erwan Gautier, and Henning Weber (VoxEU) Jun 6, 2022
The rate of inflation has a bearing on the relative price of individual products and therefore on demand for those products. Using new micro price data, this column investigates how high the optimal inflation rate must be to prevent relative product demand from being distorted. In contrast to a common claim, it finds that the optimal rate is not zero for a large part of the euro area, but is, in fact, clearly in positive territory.

Saudi Arabia is increasing supply. Why is the oil price holding firm?
Derek Brower (FT) Jun 7, 2022
More output from the kingdom and allied producers is overshadowed by potential loss from Russia.

The ECB embraces its responsibility to keep the euro together
FT View Jun 7, 2022
Central bank is right to guard against financial fragmentation as it moves to tighten policy.

EU is on the back foot in inflation fight
John Redwood (FT) Jun 7, 2022
ECB is still printing money whereas the Fed and BoE have ceased cash creation.

Falling rupee puts Modinomics in great peril
William Pesek (AT) Jun 7, 2022
Though drops in the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan are getting the global headlines, the all-time lows set by the Indian rupee may be the most troubling currency stumble of them all. The rupee recently breached 77 to the dollar for the first time amid five consecutive months of decline as surging inflation sends foreign institutional investors fleeing.

Response to High Food, Energy Prices Should Focus on Most Vulnerable
David Amaglobeli, Emine Hanedar, Gee Hee Hong, and Céline Thévenot (IMF) Jun 7, 2022
Countries should allow international prices to pass through to domestic prices while protecting households that are most in need.

The Dire Warnings on Inflation-Busting Are Coming True
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 7, 2022
Australia's central bank is just the latest to resort to jumbo hikes. More shocks await those that were behind the curve.

Even a Soft Landing Can Be Ugly for Investors
John Authers (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 7, 2022
A spike in default rates and sharply lower corporate profits are among the possibilities unless inflation cools swiftly.

Saudi Arabia Is Swinging Again – But for How Long?
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Project Syndicate) Jun 7, 2022
The most recent change on the supply side of the global oil market has involved Saudi Arabia suddenly and dramatically regaining its swing-producer role. But, in view of growing hostility toward fossil fuels, this development is unlikely to alter the market's longer-term dynamics.

The Supply Solution to Stagflation
David Malpass (Project Syndicate) Jun 7, 2022
According to the World Bank's latest forecast, global growth is projected to slow by 2.7 percentage points between 2021 and 2024 – more than twice the deceleration between 1976 and 1979. To avoid a prolonged period of stagflation, policymakers worldwide must focus on five key areas.

Finance and climate change risk: Managing expectations
Claudio Borio, Stijn Claessens, and Nikola Tarashev (VoxEU) Jun 7, 2022
The financial sector has a key role to play in supporting the green transition, but it is unrealistic to expect that it can drive the required reallocation of resources in the absence of adequate environmental policymaking in the real economy. This column argues that such unrealistic expectations could undermine financial stability and may derail the green transition itself. Moreover, the risks to financial stability are two-sided. Next to the risks that have attracted the bulk of the attention – those linked to exposures against overvalued emissions-intensive assets – one should not underestimate those linked to exposures to overvalued 'green' assets or assets that purport to be green.

The New Energy Order
Jason Bordoff and Meghan L. O'Sullivan (FA) Jun 7, 2022
How governments will transform energy markets.

History tells us UK interest rates will go up and up
Paul Lewis (FT) Jun 8, 2022
Rates are expected to hit 2.5% within a year — but that is still far below the long-term average.

Europe faces a miserable few months ahead
Chris Giles (FT) Jun 8, 2022
The costs of the ECB doing nothing would be considerable, but the action it takes must be carefully calibrated.

Why Energy Companies Won't Produce
Wayne Stoltenberg and Merrill Matthews (WSJ) Jun 8, 2022
They expect the war on fossil fuels to resume when the current crisis ends.

China exports to US jump, contrary to press reports
David P. Goldman (AT) Jun 8, 2022
US imports from China rose to an all-time record after seasonal adjustment in April, despite the Shanghai lockdown and other Covid-related blockages in the Chinese economy. That isn't what you read in Bloomberg News, whose 30 economists and 100 full-time economics reporters apparently haven't learned the difference between seasonally adjusted and unadjusted data.

How Replacing Coal With Renewable Energy Could Pay For Itself
Tobias Adrian, Patrick Bolton and Alissa M. Kleinnijenhuis (IMF) Jun 8, 2022
It's sound economic logic to pay for the replacement of coal with renewables to reap a net social gain measuring in the tens of trillions of dollars.

ECB should steer clear of the ghost of Jean-Claude Trichet
Mark Sobel (OMFIF) Jun 8, 2022
In 2008 and 2011, President Jean-Claude Trichet famously led the European Central Bank in lifting rates. The timing of these raises was inopportune, if not mistaken. Will the ECB repeat the past? In navigating the shoals ahead, the central bank in 2022 will need to be nimble and pragmatic, steering clear of the ghost of Trichet's mistakes.

Bridging the 'great finance divide' in developing countries
Shari Spiegel and Oliver Schwank (Brookings) Jun 8, 2022
Costs and terms of capital in developing countries.

Oil exporters returned to currency manipulation in 2021
Joseph E. Gagnon and Madi Sarsenbayev (PIIE) Jun 8, 2022
Currency manipulation—official purchases of excessive amounts of foreign currencies to support large trade surpluses—increased modestly in 2021 as several oil exporters returned to manipulation with the sharp rise in oil prices. These exporters included Kuwait, Norway, and the United Arab Emirates.[1] Some other manipulators scaled their purchases back from elevated 2020 levels, including Singapore, Switzerland, and Taiwan.

The Price of War
Laurence Boone (OECD Ecoscope) Jun 8, 2022
The extent to which growth will be lower and inflation higher will depend on how the war evolves, but it is clear the poorest will be hit hardest. The price of this war is high and will need to be shared.

Japan's Blurred Vision for the Future of Capitalism
Gearoid Reidy (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 8, 2022
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has finally given the broad strokes of his signature economic growth program. It's not Abe's "Three Arrows."

Mrs. Watanabe Is Giving Cover to the Yen Carry Trade
John Authers (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 8, 2022
As long as Japan's small investors keep investing abroad rather than at home, don't expect the currency's weakness to reverse.

In the Oil Market, the Strong Dollar Is the World's Problem
Javier Blas (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 8, 2022
Crude is trading at a record in many local currencies. That will eventually lead to demand destruction.

Inflation's 'Fun' Period Was Way Too Brief
Jared Dillian (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 8, 2022
Rising prices are initially good for the economy because activity tends to pick up and wage growth accelerates. The trick is not to be fooled by the resulting boost to nominal GDP.

It Took Forever to Get to 2%. Now That's Too High
Daniel Moss and Gearoid Reidy (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 8, 2022
Japan's central bank governor was heartened that the public appears to be adjusting to inflation. The feeling isn't mutual.

India's Central Bank Is Getting Its Way on Rates. But For How Long?
Andy Mukherjee (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 8, 2022
The RBI has given way to the exigencies of the government and politics before. Will it do so again?

The Other Side of US Exceptionalism
Dani Rodrik (Project Syndicate) Jun 8, 2022
American policymakers readily conflate the goal of reasserting US global primacy with the establishment of a more secure and prosperous world order. But the myth of US exceptionalism too often blinds them to the reality of how they exercise power.

Is There an Industrial Land Discount in China? A Public Finance Perspective
Zhiguo He, Scott Nelson, Yang Su, Anthony Lee Zhang, and Fudong Zhang (VoxChina) Jun 8, 2022
China's land market, a key driver of the country's extraordinary economic growth over the past 40 years, does not provide revenues to local governments via property taxes, unlike land markets in most developed economies. Rather, local governments serve as monopolistic sellers that control land supply and rely heavily on land sales for fiscal revenue (Liu, Fang, and Li 2014). Approximately one-third of local governments' incomes from 2010 to 2012 arose from land sale revenues.

Financial stability at the 'climate Minsky point'
Udaibir Das, Pierpaolo Grippa, and Timo Broszeit (VoxEU) Jun 8, 2022
Central banks have begun integrating climate-related risks into their financial stability assessments, but estimating risks to the financial system more broadly remains a work in progress. This column summarises recent scenario-based analyses of the risks thatdecarbonisation poses to UK banks, insurers, and pension funds. Though no imminent threats to financial stability are observed, the authors believe an abrupt switch to an ambitious decarbonisation scenario could result in non-negligible losses, particularly in a 'disorderly' transition.

Time to lift Trump's tariffs on China to fight inflation
Amit Khandelwal (FT) Jun 9, 2022
The Biden administration should end a trade war that has made America worse off.

Is the global housing market heading for a downturn?
Valentina Romei (FT) Jun 9, 2022
Interest rate rises are cooling house price growth in both Europe and the US but experts cite several reasons for relative optimism

Rumors of Eurozone Monetary Tightening
WSJ View Jun 9, 2022
The European Central Bank still drags its heels on normalization

How the U.S. Turned the Tables on OPEC
Paul M. Dabbar (WSJ) Jun 9, 2022
Our energy dominance came from innovation, pro-supply policies, and private investment.

Why Russia's ruble hasn't turned to rubble
William Pesek (AT) Jun 9, 2022
The Russian ruble is the best-performing currency on the planet this year. That is a turn of events US President Joe Biden and international allies didn't count on when they slapped on sanctions in response to Putin's February 24 invasion of Ukraine. But the rally around the ruble has little to do with economic strength or optimism about Russia's financial stability.

Low economic growth is a slow-burning crisis for Britain
Economist Jun 9, 2022
It must arrest its economic decline.

Watch for Waves From Europe's Evolving Inflation Shock
John Authers (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 9, 2022
Christine Lagarde and the European Central Bank are in a pivotal position, and the range of possible actions is unusually open.

Have a Little Sympathy for the Federal Reserve
Clive Crook (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 9, 2022
Monetary policy is unavoidably complex, and anyone who says otherwise is not to be trusted.

ECB Delay Presages Bigger Rate Increases in Coming Months
Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 9, 2022
With euro-area inflation surging, policy makers risk falling even further behind the curve.

Don't Be Fooled by Conflicting Inflation Metrics. The Fed Won't.
Jonathan Levin (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 9, 2022
The US central bank outsmarted itself last year by overparsing the numbers from PCE and CPI. It won't repeat that mistake.

Central Banks Are Still Far Behind the Inflation Curve
Willem H. Buiter and Anne C. Sibert (Project Syndicate) Jun 9, 2022
Inflation at current levels is a severe economic, social, and political problem – a scourge that disproportionately affects the poor and the financially unsophisticated. So, why are the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England actively fueling it?

Global supply chains rattled by winds of war
Maria Grazia Attinasi, Rinalds Gerinovics, Vanessa Gunnella, Michele Mancini, and Luca Metelli (VoxEU) Jun 9, 2022
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions imposed on Russia are adding strains to already disrupted global supply chains. This column introduces a new indicator to show that the war is already rattling global supply chains. It also argues that despite the modest share of Russia and Ukraine in global trade, the ramifications for global activity can be sizeable as both countries are among the top global exporters of energy products and raw materials that enter upstream in the production processes of several manufactured goods and that may be hard to substitute in the short term.

European Central Bank Signals Sustained Series of Rate Hikes
Nick Bennenbroek (WF Econ Group) Jun 9, 2022
The European Central Bank (ECB) confirmed it would cease its net bond purchases at the end of this month at today's monetary policy announcement, while also offering precise guidance on forthcoming policy rate increases. The ECB said it intends to raise interest rates by 25 bps in July, and to raise rates again in September, possibly by a larger increment. The ECB also sees gradual further rate increases beyond September. Following today's announcement, we now see a 50 bps rate increase in September as more likely than not. We expect inflation to quicken further by the time of the September meeting, while we also expect economic growth will be "steady enough" for the ECB to hike rates by a larger increment. That said, we believe it is unlikely the European Central Bank, or market participants, will contemplate multiple 50 bps rate hikes, and the ECB is still projected to raise interest rates much more gradually than the Federal Reserve over the medium-term. Thus, we do not expect today's announcement to be very supportive of the euro over time, and indeed still see a weaker euro versus the U.S. dollar over the medium-term.

The one promise that Brexiters kept
Janan Ganesh (FT) Jun 10, 2022
New immigration rules are making London more, not less global.

The world must brace itself for a further surge in oil prices
David Sheppard (FT) Jun 10, 2022
Outlook for production is bleak with Russian shortfalls hard to replace.

The global race for supercomputing power
Oliver Roeder (FT) Jun 10, 2022
From modelling climate change to developing products, the machines' capabilities are speeding up.

Lessons From Henry Ford About Today's Supply Chain Mess
Peter S. Goodman (NYT) Jun 10, 2022
The automobile pioneer believed short-term interests must not squeeze out investment in a business' resilience, a lesson many companies have learned the hard way since 2020.

'Peak Inflation' Keeps Peaking
WSJ View Jun 10, 2022
Progressive economic policies are crushing low-wage workers.

If You Think China Cares About Investors, Think Again
Shuli Ren (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 10, 2022
Beijing relaxing its grip on tech companies has less to do with stocks and more to do with cutting unemployment.

Inflation Finally Drives a Stake Through 'Transitory'
Jonathan Levin (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 10, 2022
Expectations about the pace of price growth had been one of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's top assets. Now they may be turning into a liability.

Rethinking Supply Chains
Diane Coyle (Diane Coyle) Jun 10, 2022
Today's supply-chain policy challenges are a consequence of forgetting that other considerations besides economic efficiency matter, and that hands-on craft knowledge cannot be transmitted online. Unfortunately, problems that have been four decades in the making cannot be solved overnight.

Economic Consequences of a Ukraine Peace
Barry Eichengreen (Project Syndicate) Jun 10, 2022
The demand that Russia pay reparations for its unprovoked war in Ukraine is morally compelling. But Russia would be less likely to reconcile itself to Ukraine's independence and territorial integrity, leaving Ukrainians unsafe and thus unable to embark on reconstruction, much less sustain stable economic growth.

The fear of technology-driven unemployment and its empirical base
Kerstin Hötte, Melline Somers, and Angelos Theodorakopoulos (VoxEU) Jun 10, 2022
New technologies may replace human labour, but can simultaneously create jobs if workers are needed to use these technologies or if new economic activities emerge. At the same time, technology-driven productivity growth may increase disposable income, stimulating a demand-induced employment expansion. Based on a systematic review of the empirical literature on technological change and its impact on employment published in the past four decades, this column suggests that the empirical support for the labour-creating effects of technological change dominates that for labour-replacement.

Central banks, climate change, and economic efficiency
Philipp Hartmann, Agnese Leonello, Simone Manganelli, Melina Papoutsi, Isabel Schnabel, and Jean-David Sigaux (VoxEU) Jun 10, 2022
Market imperfections strongly influence the volume of greenhouse gas emissions, which is a key driver of climate change. While governments should lead climate policies in the first place, a broad coalition of actors across society, including central banks, needs to contribute to transition to a carbon-neutral economy in a timely and orderly fashion. The ECB's mandate states that it must pursue its primary and secondary objectives in conformity with an open market economy, favouring an efficient allocation of resources. This column argues that this provision clarifies how the ECB shall take climate considerations into account, including but going beyond climate-related financial risks.

The human and economic cost of China's zero-Covid strategy is mounting
James Kynge (FT) Jun 11, 2022
Beijing's techno-authoritarian approach to containing the virus is just another iteration of digital dystopia.

Market mispricing of risk will continue
John Plender (FT) Jun 11, 2022
The misallocation of capital is not just down to freakish monetary policy.

How Close Are We Really to 1970s-Style Inflation?
Robert Burgess, Elaine He, and Eliza Winger (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 11, 2022
The highest inflation rates in four decades have spooked an entire generation of consumers. How do today's rising prices compare with previous inflationary periods?

How Xi Jinping is reshaping China's capital markets
Hudson Lockett (FT) Jun 12, 2022
The pipeline for IPOs increasingly reflects technological competition with the west and the heavy influence of the state.

Sick Stablecoins Can't Infect Financial Markets
Niall Ferguson and Manny Rincon-Cruz (WSJ) Jun 12, 2022
Terra's collapse worries Janet Yellen. But as with tulip mania, a handful of investors took the losses.

The WTO's lonely struggle to defend global trade
Andy Bounds (FT) Jun 13, 2022
What role does the organisation have in an era of fracturing multinational alliances and fears of deglobalisation?

America must do more in the trade tug of war
Rana Foroohar (FT) Jun 13, 2022
The US still has plenty of room to re-industrialise and increase domestic demand.

Bear Market Sends Grim Signal of Economic Fears
Mohammed Hadi and Jeanna Smialek (NYT) Jun 13, 2022
The S&P has declined 22 percent since January, amid converging worries about inflation, the Ukraine war, Covid and the Fed's response to the economy.

India's Economy Is Growing Quickly. Why Can't It Produce Enough Jobs?
Emily Schmall and Sameer Yasir (NYT) Jun 13, 2022
The disconnect is a result of India's uneven growth, powered and enjoyed by the country's upper strata.

The Incredible Sinking Yen
WSJ View Jun 13, 2022
Japan's currency hits a low against the dollar last reached in 1998

The Cost of Wishful Thinking on Inflation Is Going Up Too
Gerard Baker (WSJ) Jun 13, 2022
First it wasn't real. Then it was 'transitory.' Now we're told the Fed will cure it with a few rate hikes.

The Federal Reserve should go big now to fight inflation
WaPo View Jun 13, 2022
Powell needs to adopt bold and aggressive tactics to fight inflation.

America's inflation headache gets worse
Economist Jun 13, 2022
As prices soar, markets tumble—and the Democrats may be next.

Japan should not intervene to slow the yen's decline
Mark Sobel (OMFIF) Jun 13, 2022
The Japanese yen has fallen sharply against the dollar this year. Its roughly 15% decline is twice that of the euro. Markets are abuzz. Should Japan intervene to staunch the yen's decline? No. Will Japan intervene? Probably not. It is not likely to be effective without a change in monetary policy, which does not now seem expected. Sporadic jawboning may continue. But beware of authorities needing to be seen as doing something.

China Tech Stocks Are Both a Buy and a Sell. You Decide
Tim Culpan (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 13, 2022
There's something for everybody in the signs coming out of one of the world's hottest sectors. But the macro picture may not be so bright.

To Save Global Trade, Start Small
Henry Huiyao Wang (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 13, 2022
At this week's meeting of the World Trade Organization, members should notch some modest victories to prove that the organization remains relevant.

The Oil Price Shock Will Reverberate Into Next Year
Javier Blas (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 13, 2022
There's no end in sight for the price spike as supply struggles to keep up with demand.

The ECB Is No Longer an Inflation-Targeting Central Bank
Richard Cookson (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 13, 2022
The real goal of policy makers is keeping the euro zone's weakest members from leaving the currency union — and that may be impossible.

The Right Way to Fight Global Hunger
Alexander Müller, Violet Shivutse, and Jes Weigelt (Project Syndicate) Jun 13, 2022
The combined negative effects of climate change, conflict, COVID-19, and cost pose major risks to food security worldwide. But immediate responses to the current hunger crisis must also support the long-term transformation of food systems.

Putin's War and the German Economic Model
Dalia Marin (Project Syndicate) Jun 13, 2022
After the fall of communism, Germany went from being the sick man of Europe to being its leading economic power, largely by harnessing the benefits of global supply chains. But now that a new era of deglobalization is dawning, Germany will have to think carefully about how it should manage its dependence on international trade.

Does the G20 Have a Future?
William R. Rhodes and Stuart P.M. Mackintosh (Project Syndicate) Jun 13, 2022
Just when the world desperately needs more international cooperation to address common problems, the principal mechanism for coordinating such efforts is all but defunct. Its decline is both a harbinger and a cause of the global turmoil that awaits.

China's Crisis of Confidence
Craig Singleton (FP) Jun 13, 2022
What if, instead of being a competitor, China can no longer afford to compete at all?

Emerging Currencies Hit Hard by The Fed
Brendan McKenna (WF Econ Group) Jun 13, 2022
Our view on emerging market currencies has been simple. Decelerating global growth and a hawkish Federal Reserve should place widespread depreciation pressure on currencies across the emerging market complex. These dynamics are playing out over the course of Q2—emerging currencies have given up a chunk of the gains experienced at the beginning of this year as U.S. inflation is spiraling higher and the Fed likely needs to turn more hawkish to contain price growth. In our view, we expect emerging market currencies to continue to selloff as market participants price sharper Fed interest rate hikes. Currencies associated with weak fundamentals and institutions as well as elevated political risk are most vulnerable in the current environment, and broadly speaking, developing currencies could see another 5%-6% selloff by the end of this year.

The new Gulf oil boom poses dilemmas for the west
FT View Jun 14, 2022
War in Ukraine has forced US to seek help with supplies from Saudi Arabia.

We need a Bretton Woods for the digital age
Mike Rogers (FT) Jun 14, 2022
Friendly democracies risk ceding global economic governance to an authoritarian China if they do not agree new rules.

Is 'Made in Japan' back with the weaker yen?
Kana Inagaki (FT) Jun 14, 2022
A tight labour market and rise of production outside the country by companies may limit 'reshoring' of jobs

Policy errors of the 1970s echo in our times
Martin Wolf (FT) Jun 14, 2022
Vast debts make the world economy more fragile than it was over 40 years ago.

Americans have gone back to work. Now we can move toward steady growth.
Marty Walsh and Cecilia Elena Rouse (WaPo) Jun 15, 2022
With more Americans employed, we can now transition to steady and stable growth.

South Korea reels from global woes
Andrew Salmon (AT) Jun 14, 2022
Few countries have benefitted from being as hard-wired into the global economy as has export-focused South Korea, but this high exposure is a two-edged sword – and currently is proving to be more liability than asset. The manufacturing colossus is at the mercy of high commodity prices, troubled global supply chains and negative sentiment toward the global economy.

Is the US dollar rally ending after a good run?
Urban C. Lehner (AT) Jun 14, 2022
The US dollar has had a good run during the last year or so. Is that run coming to an end? Some currency-market players think so. For example, on May 31 UBS, a Zurich-based bank, switched its outlook to "dollar neutral," saying the "USD rally has run its course, and we see limited upside from here." A few weeks ago, the dollar started sliding.

European Inflation Update: Higher for Longer but Hedging Remains Well Priced
Lorenzo Pagani, Peder Beck-Friis and John Mullins (PIMCO) Jun 14, 2022
Despite soaring inflation in Europe, hedges appear cheap.

High inflation challenges central banks' green push
Miroslav Singer (OMFIF) Jun 14, 2022
ECB President Christine Lagarde has commented about the possibility of a 'green' discount rate, 50 basis points lower than the standard. However, we are no longer living with deflationary risks. The consequences of additional lending in times of hot demand and constrained supply chains are inflationary. Central bankers have demonstrated in the past that they can tame inflation. Doing so while attempting to ease the transition to a net zero economy is more challenging.

The ECB Needs a Bazooka to Close Bond Spreads
Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 14, 2022
Policy makers need a plan to defend the euro's weaker members from surging borrowing costs.

The Yen Won't Be Moved by '90s Nostalgia
Gearoid Reidy and Daniel Moss (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 14, 2022
The currency hit its weakest level since 1998, prompting speculation Japan might intervene again. But the world is a very different place today.

Why the US Federal Reserve's Options Are Limited
J. Bradford DeLong (Project Syndicate) Jun 14, 2022
The US Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee ought to announce a rate increase that is large enough to bring its policy rate to an optimal neutral-plus level. But it has an even greater interest in adhering to its own forward guidance, implying that it will probably maintain its incremental approach.

How Free Trade Can Fight Inflation
Gary Hufbauer, Megan Hogan, and Yilin Wang (FA) Jun 14, 2022
More competition means lower prices.

Why This Global Economic Crisis Is Different
Edward Alden (FP) Jun 14, 2022
This is the first time since World War II that there may be no cooperative way out.

Overseas aid statistics are not credible
Stephen Cutts (FT) Jun 15, 2022
Donors have exaggerated their generosity at every turn, creatively padding the figures.

Five fateful shifts that will shape the future world economy
Arvind Subramanian (FT) Jun 15, 2022
Opportunities will arise as the era of hyperglobalisation and cheap finance fades into the past.

China under pressure to reform debt market as foreign inflows slow
Hudson Lockett and Cheng Leng (FT) Jun 15, 2022
'Access is no longer a problem' but investors wary over low liquidity and opaque default process.

Slouching Toward Inflation Reality
WSJ View Jun 15, 2022
The Fed is front-loading higher rate increases, but will that be enough?

Fed Interest Hikes May End Up Having Unintended Consequences
Judy Shelton (WSJ) Jun 15, 2022
The economy doesn't need artificially high or low rates. It needs meaningful price signals—real rates.

How the Future of Derivatives Markets Can Benefit Farmers
M. Todd Henderson (WSJ) Jun 15, 2022
FTX, a licensed exchange, wants to permit the offering of futures contracts on margin.

With Powell's rate hike, the inflation fight begins in earnest
Sebastian Mallaby (WaPo) Jun 15, 2022
To get inflation under control, the Fed will almost certainly have to cause a recession.

Imploding yen piles pressure on yuan
William Pesek (AT) Jun 15, 2022
As the Japanese yen dives toward 150 to the dollar, investors are concerned less about events in Tokyo than in Beijing. Since 2016, Chinese President Xi Jinping has championed a "strong yuan" policy that is being put to the test by the yen's plunge. Chatter in Beijing and in global markets has it that pressure is mounting for a change in Chinese currency strategy as mainland growth slows.

The dollar is weak, not strong
David P. Goldman (AT) Jun 15, 2022
Measured against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, the US dollar is stronger than it has been in a generation. But are we observing dollar strength, or just weakness of the Euro and the Japanese yen? The price of insurance against a possible collapse of the dollar in the future has risen to an all-time record. By this gauge, the dollar is weaker than ever.

The Fed and the ECB turn on a dime
Economist Jun 15, 2022
The contradictions in policymakers' goals are being exposed.

Eight days that shook the markets
Economist Jun 15, 2022
Investors wake up to the fact that conquering inflation will be painful.

The Fed Is Winging It: A 75 Basis Point Hike "Seemed like the Right Thing"
Ryan McMaken (Mises Wire) Jun 15, 2022
When asked to quantify how a 75-point hike is better than a 50-point one, Powell had no answer. And will it work? Powell could only say "we'll know when we get there."

Fed Battles Inflation Despite the Costs
Allison Boxer (PIMCO) Jun 15, 2022
The Federal Reserve ratchets up the pace of monetary tightening, raising questions about the U.S. growth outlook.

Where Are the World's Fastest Roads?
Mariano Moszoro and Mauricio Soto (IMF) Jun 15, 2022
High-speed roads that can carry goods to customers in far-off markets raise productivity, reduce poverty and are an important contributor to sustainable and inclusive economic development. This is why economists spend time trying to assess the state of the world's roads through surveys and the like.

The Fed tries to get ahead of inflation
Joseph E. Gagnon (PIIE) Jun 15, 2022
The announcement by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC or Fed) that it is likely to raise the federal funds rate to nearly 4 percent next year effectively acknowledges that some rise in unemployment will be needed to get inflation down. That amounts to a step toward reality. But it is likely that either unemployment will have to rise above the Fed's new projection of 4.1 percent in 2024, or it will take longer than two years to return inflation to the 2 percent target.

The Fed Has a Narrow Path Between Inflation and Recession
Bloomberg View Jun 15, 2022
Surging prices and gathering economic gloom are pulling monetary policy in opposite directions.

Powell's Late Start on Inflation Traps Fed in a Dilemma
Jonathan Levin (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 15, 2022
The central bank lacks tools to combat food and energy costs, which are driving price growth expectations. It can ride it out or risk a recession.

Federal Reserve Must Do More Than Raise Rates by 75 Points
Mohamed A El-Erian (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 15, 2022
The central bank has to regain control of the inflation narrative to avoid inflicting more economic damage and to restore its credibility.

Bond Market Spooks ECB Into Doing...Nothing
Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 15, 2022
Policy makers will need to come up with a credible plan to defend the borrowing costs of the euro area's weaker members.

Don't Raise the Eurozone's Public-Debt Limit
Clemens Fuest (Project Syndicate) Jun 15, 2022
In view of already-high levels of national debt and rising inflation in the eurozone, giving governments more debt leeway is the wrong way to go. Fiscal policy coordination should instead focus more on reallocating public expenditure and thus on increasing its quality rather than its quantity.

Jerome Powell Races to Catch Up with Inflation
John Cassidy (New Yorker) Jun 15, 2022
In announcing a big rate rise, the Fed chief conceded that the challenge of arresting rising prices without causing a recession is getting harder.

The Rotten Roots of the IMF and the World Bank
Daniel Steinmetz-Jenkins (Nation) Jun 15, 2022
The imperial origins of the world's economic governance, imagining an alternative to these institutions, and his new book, The Meddlers.

U.S. Recession in 2023 Now Seems More Likely Than Not
Jay H. Bryson (WF Econ Group) Jun 15, 2022
Indications that inflation is becoming more entrenched in the U.S. economy has caused the Federal Reserve to become even more hawkish. We now judge that recession next year is more likely than not.

ECB uses emergency meeting to get back on the front foot
Martin Sandbu (FT) Jun 16, 2022
After chilling echoes of the sovereign debt crisis, the bank has signalled it is moving into a new phase of action.

How food inflation is swallowing Latin America's dietary staples
FT View Jun 16, 2022
Cost of items such as potatoes, beef and tortillas are soaring in a particular blow to the region's poorest

An age of real wealth destruction
Whitney Baker (FT) Jun 16, 2022
Investors will need to seek real returns from 'alpha' as nominal rate hikes and monetary contraction pierce asset bubbles.

Central banks find their mettle in the fight against inflation
Martin Sandbu (FT) Jun 16, 2022
While one drama this week by policymakers was a reaction to markets, the other was in defiance of them.

The ECB's Bond-Yield Games
WSJ View Jun 16, 2022
The job is to fight inflation, not to make Italian borrowing easier.

The tricky restructuring of global supply chains
Economist Jun 16, 2022
Why too much resilience is dangerous.

Globalization enabled nearly all countries to grow richer in recent decades
Douglas A. Irwin (PIIE) Jun 16, 2022
Globalization's many critics frequently assert that the dramatic growth of cross-border trade and investment has forced countries to undercut each other in wages and labor standards—a so-called race to the bottom for rich and poor nations alike.

How Crypto and CBDCs Can Use Less Energy Than Existing Payment Systems
Itai Agur, Xavier Lavayssière and Germán Villegas Bauer (IMF) Jun 16, 2022
Environmentally conscious design can make a major difference in the energy efficiency of digital currencies.

What If Monetary Policy Was 98% Action, 2% Talk?
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 16, 2022
Ben Bernanke had a famous recipe for setting monetary policy that relied heavily on communication. Jay Powell and his global peers would do well to scale it back.

Buyout Loans Sell at a Discount as Recession Fears Mount
Paul J Davies (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 16, 2022
Concern about recession is hurting demand for leveraged loans.

Africa Needs Carbon Markets
Ahunna Eziakonwa and Maxwell Gomera (Project Syndicate) Jun 16, 2022
Carbon markets have gained significant traction in recent years, with roughly 23% of global emissions now covered by some form of carbon pricing. But the global carbon market remains chaotic and volatile, and it largely leaves out Africa, without which global climate goals cannot be achieved.

Let's Count What Really Matters
Jayati Ghosh (Project Syndicate) Jun 16, 2022
Regularly tracking four alternative economic indicators would provide a very different view of comparative performance from the one that emerges from GDP-based analysis. And public awareness of this revised view of reality could well mobilize support for fundamental different policies at the national and international level.

Today's Crises Are Different
Mauricio Cárdenas (Project Syndicate) Jun 16, 2022
Today's crises are truly global in scope and impact, and solutions no longer depend exclusively on the competence of national economic authorities. If the current climate, health, and food emergencies fail to trigger the international collaboration needed to tackle such threats, it is fair to ask what would.

Patent publication and innovation
Deepak Hegde, Kyle Herkenhoff, and Chenqi Zhu (VoxEU) Jun 16, 2022
Patents seek to trade off the benefits to the inventor of exclusivity with the social benefits of disclosure to the public. Most studies of the patent system focus on the benefits of exclusivity. This column analyses the broader impacts of patents on innovation, leveraging a change in patent disclosure requirements in the US in 1999. Accelerating patent publication by two years increases future patent citations by 15% relative to the baseline, suggesting a significant impact on knowledge diffusion. This finding is contrary to historical arguments that patent disclosure stifles innovation or does not reveal useful information.

China Is Hardening Itself for Economic War
Zongyuan Zoe Liu (FP) Jun 16, 2022
Beijing is trying to close economic vulnerabilities out of fear of U.S. containment.

America's Foreign Aid Is Shackled by Budgetary Obligations
Walter Kerr (FP) Jun 16, 2022
Targeted awards can free up money where its most needed.

Emerging markets: rising rates will add to debt pressures
Lex (FT) Jun 17, 2022
Developing economies face their biggest set of challenges for years.

The Fed's war on inflation is also a battle for the minds of consumers
Gillian Tett (FT) Jun 17, 2022
Chair Jay Powell seems to understand that public perception matters but shaping it may be beyond his control.

Stocks still have not reached capitulation point
Katie Martin (FT) Jun 17, 2022
Market mood may be shifting from fear of missing out to fear of holding on.

The dangers for the eurozone are all too real
Nouriel Roubini (FT) Jun 17, 2022
Italy is one focus of concern with its low potential growth, large deficits and enormous public debt.

How to escape innovation's Great Stagnation
Carl Benedikt Frey (FT) Jun 17, 2022
Ideas have been getting more expensive to find, but accelerating remote collaboration will boost productivity.

The WTO's marathon exercise in staying alive
Alan Beattie (FT) Jun 17, 2022
The symbolism of striking deals at this week's ministerial comfortably outweighed their substance.

Should investors step back into emerging markets?
Jonathan Wheatley (FT) Jun 17, 2022
With stock prices gyrating, analysts are split over developing economies' prospects in a post-pandemic world

The New Geography of the Russian Elite
Pablo Robles, Anton Troianovski and Agnes Chang (NYT) Jun 17, 2022
European cities were playgrounds for Russia's superwealthy. But sanctions have closed off much of the world.

The Fed's Newfound Aggressiveness Is Concerning
Peter Coy (NYT) Jun 17, 2022
Its fight against inflation could very well cause a recession.

If Powell's Fed tenure is a success, what would failure look like?
George F. Will (WaPo) Jun 17, 2022
Inflation has nullified nominal wage gains; real wages have fallen, hurting most those the Fed most wants to help.

As Black Swans loom, can Japan's bonds defy doom?
William Pesek (AT) Jun 17, 2022
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda isn't known for his juggling or acrobatic skills. Yet keeping Asia's No. 2 economy aloft is requiring Cirque du Soleil-caliber balancing acts. As the yen plunges to 24-year lows, Kuroda finds his contortion abilities being put to the test as never before. It's near impossible to hold government bond yields at 0.25% amid a free-falling exchange rate.

Chinese Financials Feeling the Squeeze Amid Sluggish Credit Demand
Alex Zhou and Annisa Lee (PIMCO) Jun 17, 2022
Following strong double-digit profit growth in FY2021, we expect Chinese banks will be less profitable this year as COVID-19 lockdowns continue to disrupt China's economy.

Inflation Isn't the Only Reason Biden Should Lift China Tariffs
Tan Yeling (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 17, 2022
Rather than pushing Chinese leaders to liberalize, the Sino-US trade war is intensifying domestic pressure on them to reject free trade in favor of self-reliance.

ECB Plays Fast and Loose With the Law in Bond Plan
Richard Cookson (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 17, 2022
The central bank is intent on helping weaker borrowers in the euro zone, regardless of their abuse of debt and budget rules.

The Fed Is Still Struggling to Get Its Story Straight
Clive Crook (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 17, 2022
Organizing its discussion of policy around a projected path for interest rates only makes its job harder.

The BOJ Seems to Be Reveling in Obstinate Isolation
Daniel Moss and Gearoid Reidy (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 17, 2022
Japan is digging in on easy money at a time when its global peers are tightening aggressively. No wonder the yen is tanking.

Searching for 'optimal' sanctions on Russia
Simon Schropp and Marinos Tsigas (VoxEU) Jun 17, 2022
Import tariffs on Russian exports are an important tool available to the international coalition of sanctioning countries (the 'Allies'). This column analyses the optimal sanctions in terms of the scope of sectors targeted, the magnitude of import tariff increases, and the disbursement of tariff revenues. Rather than an all-out import ban, the Allies would fare better by limiting import sanctions to the eight most-imported Russian sectors and raising tariffs by 20 to 25 percentage points. Burden-sharing arrangements, in which proceeds generated from tariff rents are redistributed among Allies, could help distribute the self-harm of sanctions.

China's Economy Starting to Stabilize
Brendan McKenna (WF Econ Group) Jun 17, 2022
As COVID-related lockdowns are gradually lifted, we believe the worst of China's economic slowdown could be in the past. May sentiment and activity data show tentative signs of an economic recovery, and we believe China's economy could be headed toward a more normal growth trajectory in the second half of this year. We continue to forecast 4.2% GDP growth this year; however, we now believe risks around our forecast are balanced rather than tilted to the downside. With China's economy stabilizing, we now believe the People's Bank of China (PBoC) will not need to shift monetary policy in a more accommodative direction and the central bank will refrain from lowering Reserve Requirement Ratios for banks and other lending rates this year. But with the Fed tightening monetary policy and the PBoC keeping policy steady, we continue to forecast a weaker Chinese currency, albeit very modest renminbi depreciation through the end of this year.

Recapping A Swiss Surprise
Nick Bennenbroek (WF Econ Group) Jun 17, 2022
Central banks were in the limelight this week, including the Swiss National Bank (SNB). At its June monetary policy meeting, SNB policymakers opted to raise its policy rate, which was a surprise in terms of timing, and also magnitude as the central bank delivered and 50 bps policy rate increase to -0.25%. With inflation having moved significantly higher, the SNB highlighted their actions were in an effort to protect against elevated inflation from becoming entrenched within the economy. In addition to the rate hike, SNB policymakers noted that the Swiss franc is no longer highly valued, and they now stand ready to intervene in FX markets in either direction. Going forward, we believe economic conditions are supportive of further SNB policy rate hikes. Activity growth is still sound, while SNB projections suggest inflation should remain somewhat elevated for the time being. In that context, we also forecast the SNB to lift policy rates by 25 bps in September 2022 as well as December 2022. In addition, we believe SNB rate hikes will continue in 2023 and expect another 25 bps rate hike in March 2023.

The global economy is not going to be calmer any time soon
FT View Jun 18, 2022
Central banks are racing to adapt to a world of high inflation and weak growth.

Yes, GDP is (almost) everything
Janan Ganesh (FT) Jun 18, 2022
The recession should kill off the romantic idea that growth is a mixed blessing.

The World Has a Choice: Work Together or Fall Apart
NYT View Jun 18, 2022
No single country can solve the problem of rising food and fuel costs.

The Great Crash of 2022
Kristoffer Mousten Hansen (Mises Wire) Jun 18, 2022
Anyone who doubts whether we are in a recession can stop doubting. The Fed's reverse repos show that we're headed for a crash.

The Fed Hasn't Fixed Its Worst Blunder Since the 1970s
Niall Ferguson (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 19, 2022
Jay Powell wants us to believe he has what it takes to bring inflation under control. History warns us to be skeptical.

The End of the Asset Economy
Annie Lowrey (Atlantic) Jun 18, 2022
Rising interest rates are ending an era in which the rich got much, much richer.

When trying to predict inflation in the US, remember the wild cards
Rana Foroohar (FT) Jun 19, 2022
A long reliance on easy money may give rise to new difficulties as the Fed raises interest rates.

Towards an Asian digital trade zone
Anupam Chander (EAF) Jun 19, 2022
The prospect of an Asian digital single market seems remote, especially when India and China seem to be pulling apart. India is busy banning Chinese apps such as TikTok, while China promulgates ever stricter rules on data transfer abroad.

Technology and local state capacity
James Dzansi, Anders Jensen, David Lagakos, and Henry Telli (VoxEU) Jun 19, 2022
Studies show that investing in a government's capacity to collect tax revenues is beneficial for economic development of low-income countries. This column uses new census data from local governments in Ghana to provide descriptive and experimental evidence on the role of technology in improving government tax capacity. The pre-existing infrastructure for tax collection in the country is poor, and the technology increases the number of delivered tax bills by 27% and increases the amount of revenue collected by 103%. Despite these favourable impacts, the technology also increases the incidence of bribes, qualifying the policy rationale.

The Problem With Being a Petrostate
Emma Ashford (FP) Jun 19, 2022
Is the "oil weapon" largely nonexistent?

The WTO is on life support — but the world still needs it
FT View Jun 20, 2022
If the global trade body did not exist it would have to be reinvented.

Why China is not rising as a financial superpower
Ruchir Sharma (FT) Jun 20, 2022
Beijing must find the confidence to lift capital controls and make the renminbi fully convertible.

Central banks and markets share a secular awakening
Mohamed El-Erian (FT) Jun 20, 2022
There is no hiding from the long-term transition to more challenging financial conditions.

Italy and its banks feel the heat of spooked bond market
Patrick Jenkins (FT) Jun 20, 2022
Markets are singling out the country as the worst of a bad lot among eurozone nations.

Six insights into how business can bridge the skills gap
Andrew Hill (FT) Jun 20, 2022
Ensuring that workers are ready for tomorrow's economy was a key concern at the recent Davos gathering.

The British should stop being so relaxed about the weak pound
Nicholas Macpherson (FT) Jun 20, 2022
Devaluation carries a cost, one which has potentially increased over time.

The deafening silence over Brexit's economic fallout
George Parker and Chris Giles (FT) Jun 20, 2022
As economists start to quantify the damage from leaving the EU, a tentative debate has begun over how to soften the blow.

How Biden can convince us that recession 'isn't inevitable'
Catherine Rampell (WaPo) Jun 20, 2022
The administration is trying to keep talk of recession from becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The Death of the WTO Has Only Been Delayed
Mihir Sharma (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 20, 2022
For the organization to recover its relevance, China and the US both need to make more serious compromises.

Are the Days of UK Property Booms and Busts Over?
Chris Hughes (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 20, 2022
Tougher mortgage regulation in 2014 sought to contain overstretched buyers. Its effectiveness is about to be put to the test.

Does International Trade Weaken or Strengthen Countries' Resilience?
Jeffrey Frankel (Project Syndicate) Jun 20, 2022
Four significant problems currently afflicting leading economies serve as examples of how trade barriers erected by governments have reduced resilience. In each case, liberalization could help to remedy the problem.

Biden's Empty Inflation Rhetoric
Michael R. Strain (Project Syndicate) Jun 20, 2022
With US consumer prices growing at their fastest pace in four decades, inflation has become the single-most important economic policy issue. But you wouldn't know it from watching the Biden administration, which has maintained most Trump-era tariffs and other measures driving up prices.

The EU's Aid Policy Won't Fix Palestine's Economy
Alexandra Gerasim?iková (Project Syndicate) Jun 20, 2022
European Union financial institutions have poured €1.4 billion into Palestine in an attempt to kick-start economic development. But with the possibility of a negotiated Israeli-Palestinian peace seemingly remote, Europe urgently needs a new aid model that better matches realities on the ground.

Banks and their interest rate risk sensitivity
Katarzyna Budnik, Jiri Panos, Cosimo Pancaro, and Aurea Ponte Marques (VoxEU) Jun 20, 2022
Interest rate risks on banks' balance sheets represent a relevant financial stability concern with a view to the normalisation of monetary policy. This column explores how a parallel shift in the euro area yield curve, or its steepening, might impact banking sector profitability and solvency. Leveraging on two distinct ECB stress-testing frameworks, it finds that banks are overall well equipped to face the interest rate normalisation as it brings a positive profitability outlook with a hardly affected system-wide solvency forecast.

Can the ECB prevent a second euro crisis?
Eric Lonergan (FT) Jun 21, 2022
The central bank has moved quickly on bond market 'fragmentation' but its actions will be tested by investors.

The big mistakes of the anti-globalisers
Martin Wolf (FT) Jun 21, 2022
From treating trade as optional to overstating the merits of self-sufficiency, these are errors to avoid as we head into a new world.

The Worst Time for a Global Minimum Tax
Balázs Orbán (WSJ) Jun 21, 2022
Hungary declines to discourage investors during an economic crisis.

Biden loses the inflation blame game
David P. Goldman (AT) Jun 21, 2022
There's no inflation, and if there is inflation it's temporary and it's the fault of greedy oil companies or the fault of Vladimir Putin. The Biden Administration's messaging on the worst inflation in forty years has morphed so many times that the president's top officials can't keep up with it. Meanwhile, Western sanctions imposed on Russia have split the oil market into two tiers.

Fed decided recession is the lesser of two evils
Urban C. Lehner (AT) Jun 21, 2022
The US Federal Reserve has decided to throw everything it has into fighting inflation, even at the risk of causing a recession. This means higher-than-expected interest rates in the short term, and less chance of ultra-high rates further down the road. The pain inflicted on business borrowers would probably not be as bad if the Fed hadn't decided to attack inflation full-bore now.

How attractively are shares now priced?
Economist Jun 21, 2022
What a key valuation measure says about buying the dip.

Inflation blame game
Julian Jacobs (OMFIF) Jun 21, 2022
Amid declining real wages, accumulating household debt and the looming prospect of recession, the problem of inflation is now firmly in the arena of US partisan politics. It is yet another issue defined by clear political divisions between Democrats and Republicans. And like many other partisan conflicts, a politically motivated understanding of inflation threatens Washington's ability to develop a coherent response.

UK's Discontent Risks Deepening a Longer-Term Malaise
Mohamed A El-Erian (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 21, 2022
Britain can't stop a cost-of-living crisis in the short term, but it must come up with a new growth model that is designed for the changing structure of the domestic and global economy.

Why This Bear Market Is Bad for Stocks and Bonds
Richard Cookson (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 21, 2022
It is highly unusual for both fixed income and equities to perform so badly at the same time, but inflation has flipped their correlation to the same direction.

Biden Needs to Do More Than Just Lift Tariffs
Karl W Smith (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 21, 2022
The return of inflation means that US trade policy should focus on the welfare of the consumer.

The Fertility Crisis Started in Japan, But It Won't Stay There
Gearoid Reidy (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 21, 2022
A declining population and plummeting fertility rate isn't a unique Japanese phenomenon. All rich countries will contend with this crisis.

Now Even Central Bankers Are Blaming Themselves
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 21, 2022
The RBA's pandemic postmortem acknowledges the damage of its policy errors. It offers a global lesson.

Helping the 222 Million
Yasmine Sherif (Project Syndicate) Jun 21, 2022
As world leaders decide how to allocate resources in response to COVID-19, climate change, and conflict, they must make spending on education a much higher priority. This means rethinking international development policy with a view to achieving a world in which respect for equality and human rights starts with education for all.

How to Fuel Inflation and Harm the Environment
Anne O. Krueger (Project Syndicate) Jun 21, 2022
Although US President Joe Biden has now identified inflation as his top economic-policy priority, his administration's efforts to ameliorate the problem have been ineffective and even counterproductive. As if that weren't bad enough, most of its recent actions run counter to its professed environmental and climate goals.

The Quants in the Room
Jason Furman (FA) Jun 21, 2022
How much power do economists really have?

What Makes a Power Great
Michael J. Mazarr (FA) Jun 21, 2022
The real drivers of rise and fall.

The Myth of the Global
Shannon K. O'Neil (FA) Jun 21, 2022
Why regional ties win the day.

It's Time for Regulators to Put Crypto Down
David Gerard (FP) Jun 21, 2022
A lack of rules has created fraudulent, bubble-driven markets.

How Much Do Supply and Demand Drive Inflation?
Adam Hale Shapiro (FRBSF Econ Letter) Jun 21, 2022
Inflation has remained at levels well above the Federal Reserve's inflation goal of 2% for over a year. Separating the underlying data from the personal consumption expenditures price index into supply- versus demand-driven categories reveals that supply factors explain about half of the run-up in current inflation levels. Demand factors are responsible for about one-third, with the remainder resulting from ambiguous factors. While supply disruptions are widely expected to ease this year, this outcome is highly uncertain.

Latin America's political tumult will last until its economies reform
FT View Jun 22, 2022
Colombian election was latest in which voters chose candidates promising radical change.

Frozen tax allowances and inflation chill investors
Charles Calkin (FT) Jun 22, 2022
What should you do during the fiscal ice age?

Worries about the dominance of big three index trackers are wrong
Charley Ellis (FT) Jun 22, 2022
Criticism is just the latest in a series of misguided concerns over the industry.

The big risk to equities now is earnings, not valuations
Ian Harnett (FT) Jun 22, 2022
Investors have probably seen only the first phase of this bear market in stocks.

Britain's trade relationship with the EU is needlessly dysfunctional
Alan Beattie (FT) Jun 22, 2022
The UK's strained post-Brexit ties with the 27-nation bloc contrast with its constructive attitude elsewhere.

Biden Is Practically Engineering a Recession
David R. Henderson and Casey B. Mulligan (WSJ) Jun 22, 2022
His regulatory and tax agendas seem designed to negate the good things the economy has going for it.

Volcker, Powell and the Price of Amnesia About Monetary Policy
Thomas J. Sargent and William L. Silber (WSJ) Jun 22, 2022
The Fed should have heeded the lessons of 1980s inflation.

Structural reforms to help address the cost of living crisis
David Turner, Balázs Egert and Jarka Botev (OECD Ecoscope) Jun 22, 2022
In response to the cost of living crisis, governments are rolling out temporary, timely and well-targeted fiscal support to vulnerable households. Such policies might be contrasted with structural reform measures, which are typically more permanent in nature and usually take many years to raise the supply-side potential of the economy. However, just-published OECD research considers the differential impact of a range of structural reforms on adjusted household disposable income as compared to GDP and finds that some structural reforms — including family in-kind benefits, family cash benefits and cuts in the income tax wedge — have a disproportionately large effect on household disposable income compared to GDP.

OPEC+ Mulls When to Fire Its Last Oil Production Bullets
Javier Blas (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 22, 2022
The cartel is running out of capacity to pump more crude.

Italy's Families Aren't Rich Enough to Evade a Crisis
Rachel Sanderson (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 22, 2022
Household wealth has been a source of comfort to the indebted nation. But affluence won't buy off a financial crunch

The US Economy Is Headed for a Hard Landing
William C Dudley (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 22, 2022
A recession is coming within 12 to 18 months as the Fed focuses on curbing inflation.

Oil Is in Another Bear Market - and for Good Reason
Jared Dillian (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 22, 2022
Traders seem to be betting on demand destruction, which would not be bad for the economy, stocks and bonds.

Powell Finally Has Markets Right Where He Wants Them
Jonathan Levin (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 22, 2022
The Fed chair seems to think the dial on financial conditions is at an appropriate setting. Investors are wise not to try to adjust it.

It's the Inflation, Stupid
Michael J. Boskin (Project Syndicate) Jun 22, 2022
Dangerously high inflation has left Americans deeply dissatisfied with the economy and likely to punish the Democrats in this year's midterm elections. US President Joe Biden would be wise to follow the example of his predecessor Bill Clinton, lest he end up sharing a political fate similar to Jimmy Carter's.

Inflation as a Political Power Play Gone Wrong
Yanis Varoufakis (Project Syndicate) Jun 22, 2022
A half-century long strategy, led by corporations, Wall Street, governments, and central banks, is coming undone. As a result, the West's authorities now face an impossible choice: push conglomerates and states into cascading bankruptcies or allow inflation to go unchecked.

Fact-Checking the Deglobalization Narrative
Andrés Velasco (Project Syndicate) Jun 22, 2022
The relationship between public and private enterprises in China is a complicated one. For starters, China has a large number of state-owned enterprises; by one count, there are 144,700 state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in China. These firms span the gamut of industries, and often reach into virtually every aspect of economic life in the country.

Making Higher Oil Prices a Win for American Households
Shang-Jin Wei (Project Syndicate) Jun 22, 2022
The gains to the United States from its sanctions policy toward Russia need not benefit only a few oil companies and their shareholders. A two-part policy that permits oil exports only from incremental new production could turn American households from losers into winners.

How to Fix Inflation
Kevin A. Hassett (NR) Jun 22, 2022
By next year, inflation will likely be so unpopular that Americans from the far left to the far right will demand that Congress do something.

A Recession Isn't Inevitable
John Cassidy (New Yorker) Jun 22, 2022
Several factors point to a significant slowdown in the economy, but the gloomy forecast isn't yet a sure thing.

Local Government Implicit Debt and the Pricing of LGFV Bonds
Laura Xiaolei Liu, Yuanzhen Lyu, and Fan Yu (VoxChina) Jun 22, 2022
To examine the implicit guarantee provided by Chinese local governments to local government financing vehicles (LGFV), we create a proxy for local governments' implicit debt ratio and find it correlated with the credit spread of LGFV bonds. More importantly, this relationship varies with government policies and macroeconomic conditions, suggesting that investors' views about which level of government is the implicit guarantor change over time.

Past and present inflation are more similar than you think
Marijn A. Bolhuis, Judd N. L. Cramer, and Lawrence H. Summers (VoxEU) Jun 22, 2022
Housing inflation in the US before 1983 was measured in a way that made the Consumer Price Index (CPI) mechanically responsive to Fed policy, leading to artificially high peaks and fast declines in CPI inflation. To better contextualise the current run-up in inflation to a 40-year high, this column presents new historical series for CPI headline and core inflation that are more consistent with current practices and expenditure shares for the post-war period. Using these series, the authors find that current inflation levels are much closer to past inflation peaks than the official series would suggest.

What's Behind All the Talk of a Recession?
John Cassidy (New Yorker) Jun 22, 2022
Several factors point to a significant slowdown in the economy, but the gloomy forecast isn't yet a sure thing.

Reaching for Resilience
Joachim Fels, Andrew Balls, and Daniel J. Ivascyn (PIMCO) Jun 22, 2022
The global macro environment remains anything but normal – resilience is required for investors to navigate a volatile and challenging path over the next five years.

Complacency led policymakers to misdiagnose inflation
Chris Giles (FT) Jun 23, 2022
Politicians and central bankers took their eyes off price problems but running a high pressure economy is dangerous.

Crypto enthusiasts are betting the house on creative destruction
Gillian Tett (FT) Jun 23, 2022
Despite the recent rout, private digital money seems more likely to mutate than die.

Britain's tech sector still believes in opportunity in adversity
John Thornhill (FT) Jun 23, 2022
The disastrous effects of Brexit are being met with an upbeat desire to capitalise on science and venture capital strengths.

How the revolution in electric vehicles is changing mining
Aimee Boulanger (FT) Jun 23, 2022
The world's largest carmakers are among those driving hardest for sustainable minerals.

What Russia's fortress balance sheet can tell us about the dollar's future
Robert McCauley (FT) Jun 23, 2022
Three things matter for FX reserves: Location, location, location.

Tsunami towers over Japan's bond market
William Pesek (AT) Jun 23, 2022
A surging US dollar is driving the yen sharply lower – down 18% this year – and spooking world markets. Making matters worse, the volatility is putting a spotlight on a dreadful national balance sheet. Public debt is well beyond 250% of gross domestic product at a moment when Japan's population is shrinking at the fastest pace on record.

Costly food and energy are fostering global unrest
Economist Jun 23, 2022
Many governments are too indebted to cushion the blow to living standards.

Can the Fed pull off a controlled slowdown of the housing market?
Economist Jun 23, 2022
The events of the early 1980s might provide a guide.

Assessing Inflation's Effects Across Emerging Markets
Pramol Dhawan & Lupin Rahman (PIMCO) Jun 23, 2022
The varied responses of individual countries to global inflationary pressures have contributed to elevated real-rate differentials between developed and emerging markets.

Are Africa's children our last hope to save us from demographic decline?
Wolfgang Fengler (Brookings) Jun 23, 2022
Investing in Africa will help both development and the bottom line.

More African Central Banks Are Exploring Digital Currencies
Habtamu Fuje, Saad Quayyum and Franck Ouattara (IMF) Jun 23, 2022
Several sub-Saharan African central banks are exploring or in the pilot phase of a digital currency, following Nigeria's October introduction of e-Naira. Nigeria was the second country after the Bahamas to roll out a CBDC.

Lamont: Fighting inflation like 'balancing bubbles on a pin'
Philip Moore (OMFIF) Jun 23, 2022
Lord Lamont of Lerwick knows a thing or two about double digit inflation. Speaking at the opening session of OMFIF's Global Wealth Strategy Summit in June, he recalled that when he became chancellor of the exchequer in November 1990, inflation in the UK stood at 10.6%. This is just below the 11% level the Bank of England is expecting by October. His prescription for reducing inflation, famously articulated in May 1991, was rising unemployment and a recession.

X-Rated Recession Risks Can't Be Covered Up
John Authers (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 23, 2022
It doesn't matter how we define a recession. We'll know one when we see it.

Rising Yields Will Test EU's 800 Billion-Euro Promise
Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 23, 2022
The NextGen package will be much more expensive than when it was launched, testing the solidarity of the bloc's political leaders.

How the G7 Could Help the Debt-Distressed
Mariana Mazzucato and Alan Donnelly (Project Syndicate) Jun 23, 2022
If G7 leaders are serious about helping low- and middle-income countries prepare for the next pandemic or address climate change, they have an odd way of showing it. As many developing countries hurtle toward a debt crisis, rich countries are failing to pull the levers that could help them avoid the worst.

The economics of Brexit: A new eBook
Jonathan Portes (VoxEU) Jun 23, 2022
What has Brexit meant for the UK economy? Six years on from the referendum, and over a year since the implementation of the UK–EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement, this column introduces a new eBook which brings together leading academic researchers on trade, immigration, and the political economy of Brexit to present new research and evidence on different aspects of this question.

How the ECB can tackle fragmentation in the eurozone
Lorenzo Bini Smaghi (FT) Jun 24, 2022
History shows diverging sovereign bond yields have high economic and political costs.

The Latest Currency War May Just Be a Skirmish
Robert Burgess (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 24, 2022
The ballooning US current-account deficit has the potential to reverse the dollar's strength.

Economic Chaos of a Taiwan War Would Go Well Past Semiconductors
Henry Brands (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 24, 2022
A Chinese invasion is more likely than most assume, and would come sooner rather than later.

Real Stress Hurts Bank Buybacks More Than Fed's Test
Paul J Davies (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 24, 2022
Rising interest rates and bond losses are already curbing share repurchases this year.

Fed Confronts a 'New World' of Inflation
Jeanna Smialek (NYT) Jun 24, 2022
Central banks had a longstanding playbook for how inflation worked. In the postpandemic era, all bets are off.

Bond Traders Are Reading the Federal Reserve Wrong Again
Jenny Paris (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 24, 2022
Rushing to hedge for a recession that has yet to arrive overlooks the fact that the battle against inflation is far from over.

The EU's Carbon Border Tax Could Hurt Developing Countries
Miriam González Durántez and Calli Obern (Project Syndicate) Jun 24, 2022
While the European Union's proposed carbon border tax could help to cut emissions and level the competitive playing field for EU-based firms, it risks hurting poorer countries. By helping to finance the developing world's green transition, Europe could mitigate the protectionist threat in its own climate agenda.

Is Stock-Market Short-Termism Really Behind Climate Change?
Mark J. Roe (Project Syndicate) Jun 24, 2022
It has become uncontroversial to suggest that corporate executives are obsessed with immediate profits, often at the expense of their company's long-term value. But the claim lacks evidence, misdiagnoses the problem, and comes with high costs of its own.

The 1970s Revisited?
Jim O'Neill (Project Syndicate) Jun 24, 2022
A combination of surging consumer prices and public-sector labor strikes has understandably reawakened memories of the years preceding the recent era of persistently low inflation. It is now up to policymakers to manage the situation appropriately, even if it means telling voters what they do not want to hear.

Roll up, roll up for the great blue-chip corporate bond sale!
Joe Rennison (FT) Jun 25, 2022
Debt of highly rated companies is trading at steep discounts.

Bitcoin isn't much of a macro hedge
Jon Danielsson and Robert Macrae (VoxEU) Jun 25, 2022
Bitcoin is often sold as protection against adverse macroeconomic outcomes. This column argues that this depiction as a macro hedge does not stand up to scrutiny. Recent events – from Covid and inflation to war – provide a window into what sort of asset bitcoin actually is. It if were a true macro hedge, bitcoin would be positively correlated with macroeconomic uncertainty. Instead, it acts as a leveraged bet for speculators. And unlike gold, which has been trusted as a macro hedge for millennia, bitcoin requires access to electricity and the internet, precarious services in times of turmoil.

Grim times lie ahead for UK as inflation combines with low growth
Martin Wolf (FT) Jun 26, 2022
Modest interest rate rises by the Bank of England would simply reflect the severity of the economic slowdown.

Global financial centres: where hustle's the name of the game
Leo Lewis (FT) Jun 26, 2022
London and Hong Kong are working hard to remain commercial hubs, while Tokyo is not as committed.

United Airlines's Inflation Warning
WSJ View Jun 26, 2022
Pilots get a 14.5% wage increase over 18 months, as airfares spike.

How the G-7 can tip the scales toward Ukraine
Robert B. Zoellick (WaPo) Jun 26, 2022
As the war with Russia becomes one of attrition, economic resilience becomes the deciding factor. That's where the Group of 7 comes in.

Semiconductor cycle shows signs of peaking
Scott Foster (AT) Jun 27, 2022
Demand for semiconductors and the equipment used in their production has been sky high in recent years, an up-and-up trend industry forecasters expect to continue for the foreseeable future. At the same time, signs of a cyclical downturn are becoming more and more apparent across the industry.

Why inflation looks likely to stay above the pre-pandemic norm
Economist Jun 26, 2022
Even as supply-chain snarls ease, wage growth and price expectations are ticking up.

Kishida retreats from new capitalism
Richard Katz (EAF) Jun 26, 2022
What Kishida produced was top-heavy with rhetoric about attaining a virtuous cycle of growth and distribution, but very weak on any substantive measures to achieve it. It is equally weak on measures to boost growth-enhancing goals.

Japan's digital society rests on Kishida's leadership
Naohiro Yashiro (EAF) Jun 26, 2022
Better utilisation of the digital economy is necessary to overcome labour force shortages brought about by a rapidly declining working-age population.

Japan's economic security bill a balance betweeen business and the bureaucracy
Toshiya Takahashi (EAF) Jun 26, 2022
The new law enables the national government to intervene in Japanese companies' dealings with foreign companies' across supply chains, basic infrastructure, leading technology and patent publication for sensitive technologies.

State ownership and corporate leverage around the world
Ralph De Haas, Sergei Guriev, and Alexander Stepanov (VoxEU) Jun 26, 2022
Political economy is an important source of distortions in financial markets. For example, state ownership may either lower capital costs due to implicit or explicit bailout guarantees or raise them due to the politicisation of business decisions. This column uses cross-country data on 4 million firms to show that state ownership is negatively correlated with leverage on average, and this effect is stronger in countries with weaker rule of law. The relationship is positive, however, for very large firms, suggesting that the perception of bailout guarantees may be strongest for 'national champions'.

The high cost of producing cheap food
Rana Foroohar (FT) Jun 27, 2022
Intensive farming in America's midwest has consequences for our health and the planet with falling returns to farmers.

Rise of ETFs 'destabilising' emerging markets
Steve Johnson (FT) Jun 27, 2022
Passive money most likely to be withdrawn during times of global stress, analysis finds.

Crypto and meme corporate bonds may follow their own path
Ellen Carr (FT) Jun 27, 2022
Creditors are unlikely to take their cues from the equity market.

The Federal Reserve Can't Cure Inflation by Itself
John H. Cochrane (WSJ) Jun 27, 2022
Economic and fiscal reforms are necessary to persuade the world that the U.S. will pay its debts.

Export controls against Russia are working—with the help of China
Martin Chorzempa (PIIE) Jun 27, 2022
The economic sanctions targeting Russia after its invasion of Ukraine have been described as an effort to permanently weaken its ability to make war. Even if the new Group of Seven (G7) oil price cap plan fails to force Russia to the negotiating table, Russia is vulnerable to export restrictions on military-related components, many of which come from abroad. At the same time, most countries have refused to join the US-led coalition in applying sanctions and export controls, leaving a large potential loophole Russia could turn to for parts, technology, and currency.

The UK Risks Entering a New Era of Economic Decline
Bloomberg View Jun 27, 2022
Britain has enough problems without labor unrest adding to the threat of persistent stagflation.

Should European Banking Really Be More Like US Banking?
Paul J Davies (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 27, 2022
Cross-border M&A could bring about efficiencies for the industry. But a Banking Union might also lead to deeper divisions between states, just like America.

The Decline of Fossil Fuels Is Going to Be Expensive
Justin Fox (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 27, 2022
Just because demand for gasoline is headed downward doesn't mean prices will fall automatically.

George Soros, Mahathir and the Legacy of 1997
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 27, 2022
The conspicuous disdain between two high-profile figures became a symbol of colliding political and economic visions. The Asian financial crisis precipitated the end of a long-standing world order.

Russian Oil Sanctions Upended the World. Gold Bans Won't
David Fickling (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 27, 2022
The import curbs expected to be announced at the G-7 meeting are unlikely to cause waves, given the swings in investment demand.

Wrong on the Dollar – for Now
Stephen S. Roach (Project Syndicate) Jun 27, 2022
After a 9% decline in the second half of 2020, the broad dollar index – the real effective exchange rate as calculated by the Bank for International Settlements – has gone the other way, soaring by 12.3% from January 2021 through May 2022. And yet the deterioration of the US current-account balance has continued.

How Realistic Are China's Semiconductor Ambitions?
Keun Lee (Project Syndicate) Jun 27, 2022
Despite big aspirations – and big investment – China has struggled to catch up with the US in an economically and strategically vital industry, and will continue to face significant barriers to progress. But a number of factors – from rising US inflation to fast-growing scientific capabilities – could work in its favor.

When Central Bankers Become the Target
Howard Davies (Project Syndicate) Jun 27, 2022
With inflation surging, central bankers would be wise not to assume that their reputations will automatically recover and the status quo ante will be restored. They will need to marshal their defenses more effectively and should not regard central bank independence as the end of monetary history.

Crypto currencies and digital money: Taking stock/A>
Jean-Pierre Landau (VoxEU) Jun 27, 2022
The crash in crypto currency valuations may trigger a radical reassessment. But, just as excessive hype fuelled speculation, a collapse in valuations may lead to an indiscriminate condemnation of digital money and an underestimation of its potential benefits. This column takes stock of developments over the last five years in an attempt to separate fact from exaggeration and fiction.

State ownership and corporate leverage
Ralph De Haas, Sergei Guriev, and Alexander Stepanov (VoxEU) Jun 27, 2022
Political economy is an important source of distortions in financial markets. For example, state ownership may either lower capital costs due to implicit or explicit bailout guarantees or raise them due to the politicisation of business decisions. This column uses cross-country data on 4 million firms to show that state ownership is negatively correlated with leverage on average, and this effect is stronger in countries with weaker rule of law. The relationship is positive, however, for very large firms, suggesting that the perception of bailout guarantees may be strongest for 'national champions'.

Foreign business in Hong Kong looks to the long term
Tom Mitchell (FT) Jun 28, 2022
Despite erosion of freedoms, companies and investors prioritise access to capital markets oasis.

Crisis looms if the ECB's new tool comes up short
Megan Greene (FT) Jun 28, 2022
The spread between Italian and German government bonds has inspired the creation of an 'anti-fragmentation' procedure.

A stronger dollar might hit emerging economies harder this cycle
David Lubin (FT) Jun 28, 2022
When inflation is accelerating, a currency depreciation is more likely to add a kicker to domestic price.

In an era of disorder, open trade is at risk
Martin Wolf (FT) Jun 28, 2022
Action is needed to shore up the global commons — and less powerful countries must take the initiative.

An Oil Price Cap for Russia?
WSJ View Jun 28, 2022
Janet Yellen's idea for a buyer's cartel needs Putin's cooperation.

Biden Isn't to Blame for Inflation
Alan S. Blinder (WSJ) Jun 28, 2022
Rather look to the Federal Reserve's timidity and, yes, the war in Ukraine.

How Bad Were Recessions before the Fed? Not as Bad as They Are Now
John Kennedy (Mises Wire) Jun 28, 2022
The Federal Reserve was supposed to prevent recessions that people blamed on the lack of central banking. Not surprisingly, the post-Fed recessions have been worse.

Europe, We Have a Problem
Rodrigo da Costa and Kris Peeters (Project Syndicate) Jun 28, 2022
Space-based technologies are an increasingly important component of both economic competitiveness and strategic defense. Yet compared to other major powers, the European Union is not doing nearly enough to support innovation and entrepreneurship in this critical sector.

It Takes a Smart Village to Build Sustainable Prosperity
Andrew Sheng and Xiao Geng (Project Syndicate) Jun 28, 2022
The unbridled urbanization that globalization has brought has led to over-consumption and a lower quality of life for many. A better approach would be to extend access to high-quality services – including water, energy, transport, and internet – even to far-flung rural areas.

Land speculation, booms, and busts with endogenous phase transitions
Tomohiro Hirano and Joseph Stiglitz (VoxEU) Jun 28, 2022
Standard macro models with rational expectations struggle to explain the 2008 global crisis. This column provides a theoretical foundation for recurrent booms and busts within a dynamic rational expectations model with capital and land. The interaction between capital and land prices generates endogenous 'phase transitions', which lead to macroeconomic fluctuations. Furthermore, it shows that appropriately designed government policy, for example by guaranteeing a certain return on capital, can ensure stability and increase social welfare.

A green industrial revolution is coming
Alessio Terzi (VoxEU) Jun 28, 2022
Pressing social and environmental concerns are leading many to question the usefulness of economic growth. This column argues that there is nothing intrinsic in the concept of growth that makes it incompatible with environmental protection. Growth and technological progress are two sides of the same coin. The green transition can contribute to the creation of 'good jobs' that are less prone to geographical concentration, dehumanising repetitive tasks, and automation or delocalisation. It can usher in prosperity for the combined benefit of people and planet.

Commercial policies and regulations now fragment the digital economy
Simon Evenett and Johannes Fritz (VoxEU) Jun 28, 2022
The last inventory of digital economy policies was published in 2018. Since then, officials have gone into overdrive, acting unilaterally to regulate and to promote digital activities. Drawing upon an up-to-date inventory of over 15,000 state acts, a new report assesses whether unilaterally determined policy is fragmenting the digital economy along national and regional lines.

Policy Nimbleness Through Forward Guidance
Mary C. Daly (FRBSF Econ Letter) Jun 28, 2022
Bringing inflation down is the Federal Reserve's number one priority. The goal is to do that without crippling growth and stalling the labor market. This will not be easy, but the economy and the Fed's policy toolkit have both evolved, which will help for meeting those goals.

International Economic Outlook: 2022 Mid-Year Outlook
Nick Bennenbroek, Brendan McKenna, and Jessica Guo (WF Econ Group) Jun 28, 2022
Aggressive monetary policy tightening and reduced consumer purchasing power are weighing on economic activity, and raising the probability of recession in many major economies. Going forward, the prospects for global growth have dwindled as central bank rate hikes and elevated inflation disrupt economies around the world. With U.S. recession now more likely than not, we believe European countries and emerging market nations with strong trade linkages to the U.S. are also at risk of falling into recession. As hawkish as most central banks have been this year, we now believe some central banks could look to unwind tighter monetary policy in the second half of 2023. Recession in the U.S. and U.K. should result in the Fed and Bank of England lowering policy rates, while many emerging market policymakers will likely follow the path of the Fed. It is possible the latter part of 2023 could mark the beginning of "The Great Unwind". Dollar strength should persist through early 2023; however, peak dollar strength may be approaching earlier than we initially expected. As the Fed eases monetary policy in late 2023, we believe the dollar's rise should slow by the middle of next year and the greenback should eventually start to weaken against most foreign currencies. We continue to believe Latin American currencies will be the outlier. Political risks and mature tightening cycles should keep Latin American currencies from strengthening during our forecast horizon.

The risk of a flip-flopping Fed
Mohamed El-Erian (FT) Jun 29, 2022
There is a danger of the classic 'stop-go' trap that haunted many western central banks in the 1970s and 1980s.

All-inclusive debt relief will store up trouble in central and eastern Europe
Beata Javorcik (FT) Jun 29, 2022
Governments seeking popularity are adopting measures that hurt banks and unfairly benefit large property owners.

US-led security push in Asia leaves trade as an optional extra
Alan Beattie (FT) Jun 29, 2022
The shift from Asia-Pacific economics to Indo-Pacific security is more than semantic.

How the G7 countries plan to hurt Russia's oil bonanza
Sam Fleming, Ian Smith and Tom Wilson (FT) Jun 29, 2022
Leaders want insurers to become the effective enforcers of a price cap mechanism.

More Supply-Chain Disruptions Are Coming
Peter Tirschwell (WSJ) Jun 29, 2022
West Coast ports are negotiating a new labor contract, and it's likely to cause major slowdowns, which could worsen inflation.

Rising Interest Rates Will Crush the Federal Budget
Red Jahncke (WSJ) Jun 29, 2022
The interest costs of Treasury debt are about to soar while revenue from capital-gains taxes will plunge.

G7's infrastructure scheme is no 'BRI killer'
William Pesek (AT) Jun 29, 2022
US President Joe Biden and his G7 pals are learning a painful lesson about Xi Jinping's global ambitions for China: don't bring a butter knife to an economic gunfight. The grouping's $600 billion pledge for global infrastructure projects seems too little too late next to the trillions that Beijing plans to spend on a network of development corridors around the globe.

The battle between Asia's financial centres is heating up
Economist Jun 29, 2022
Hong Kong, Singapore and Shanghai each bring different advantages--and costs.

Latin America's unstable politics dim hopes for economic growth
Monica de Bolle (PIIE) Jun 29, 2022
The goal of sustainable long-term economic growth has generally been a pipe dream for Latin America since the rebuilding of democracy in the 1980s. Chronically beset by inflation, uncontrolled public spending, wayward monetary policy, and external shocks, most recently from the COVID-19 pandemic, the region's governments have lurched back and forth from right to left during election cycles, with each new regime undoing what came before it, including sensible policies and reforms in many cases.

Globalization has helped raise incomes almost everywhere since the 1980s
Douglas A. Irwin (PIIE) Jun 29, 2022
Critics of globalization often assert that growth in cross-border trade and investment started a race to the bottom where countries undercut each other in wages and labor standards, leaving poor and rich alike worse off. But a race to the top would be a more accurate description, as almost every country is richer today than four decades ago, before globalization gathered momentum.

Sanctions against Russia are also hurting its trade with nonsanctioning countries
Martin Chorzempa (PIIE) Jun 29, 2022
Export restrictions and sanctions imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine are damaging the Russian economy. Exports to Russia have fallen significantly from sanctioning countries, but also, surprisingly, from nonsanctioning countries, most notably China.

Capital Markets Regulation Is Stronger, but Some Gaps Still Must be Closed
Tobias Adrian and Jay Surti (IMF) Jun 29, 2022
Countries have made substantial progress toward implementing capital markets regulatory reform, but important gaps remain and new challenges have raised the bar.

Can Saudi Aramco Meet Its Oil Production Promises?
Javier Blas (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 29, 2022
The oil giant is running out of capacity to pump more crude.

Bond Market Rebound Is Bad News for the Economy
Gary Shilling (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 29, 2022
US Treasuries are starting to flag a recession that looks to be unavoidable.

Never Mind Peak Inflation. Powell Wisely Eyes the Long Term.
Jonathan Levin (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 29, 2022
The Federal Reserve chair poured cold water on the notion that the central bank might back off rate increases.

A Stagflationary Debt Crisis Looms
Nouriel Roubini (Project Syndicate) Jun 29, 2022
There is ample reason to worry that major economies like the United States are heading for a recession, accompanied by cascading financial turmoil. Some of the worst elements of both the 1970s and the 2008 crash are now in play, with equity markets likely to move deeper into bear territory.

An Empirical Overview of Chinese Capital Market?
Grace Xing Hu, Jun Pan, and Jiang Wang (VoxChina) Jun 29, 2022
We provide an empirical review of the Chinese capital market, focusing on the basic return and risk characteristics of its major asset classes, as well as a comparison to the US market. All major asset classes in China have significant higher volatilities than their counterparts in the US market, but they do not always yield larger returns. Small-company stocks, short-, medium-, and long-term treasury bonds outperform their US counterparts, while large stocks underperform and long-term enterprise bonds yield similar returns..

The impact of the Russian invasion on firm default probabilities
Paul Konietschke, Julian Metzler, and Aurea Ponte Marques (VoxEU) Jun 29, 2022
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has led to disruptions in important sectors, such as energy, food, and commodities, with significant ramifications for aggregate economic activity. To capture the heterogeneous effects of the war on firms in Europe, this column discusses the impact on default probabilities using a quantile regression model application. The approach combines country-specific macroeconomic shocks with heterogeneous sectoral characteristics under two tail scenarios to project probabilities of default over a three-year horizon. Results suggest that especially vulnerable sectors contribute relatively more to an increase in euro area default probabilities, leading to an overall decrease of banks' common equity tier 1 capital.

The reinvention of Hong Kong
Primrose Riordan, Andy Lin, Chan Ho-him and Gloria Li (FT) Jun 30, 2022
After three stormy years, Xi Jinping hails a 'new era' for the city. It is likely to be less international and closer to mainland China

After Stock Market's Worst Start in 50 Years, Some See More Pain Ahead
Isabella Simonetti (NYT) Jun 30, 2022
At the halfway point of the year, it's been a historically horrible time for stocks. Bonds are in bad shape, too.

Economic Growth, Not Austerity, Is the Answer to Inflation
Arthur Laffer and Stephen Moore (WSJ) Jun 30, 2022
Lawrence Summers was right about the danger of excessive spending. But now he wants high unemployment.

The Hong Kong Handover at 25
Benedict Rogers (WSJ) Jun 30, 2022
China has turned one of Asia's freest cities into a grim police state.

Greenhouse Emissions Rise to Record, Erasing Drop During Pandemic
P. Bhanumati, Mark de Haan, and James William Tebrake (IMF) Jun 30, 2022
Emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases plunged 4.6 percent in 2020, as lockdowns in the first half of the year restricted global mobility and hampered economic activity. Many hoped that this would mark the beginning of a more permanent shift downwards in emissions. The latest data, however, dashed those hopes.

Fed presidents cautiously optimistic for a soft landing
Julian Jacobs (OMFIF) Jun 30, 2022
The central question facing the US economy right now is whether the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes will produce a hard or soft landing. Will the interest rate increases choke investment, employment and consumption, spurring recession? Or will the Fed be able to reduce inflation without sending the economy into a downturn? While consumer confidence is plummeting and most economists predict recession, there are strong cases to be made for both predictions.

The inflation story differs across major economies
Joseph E. Gagnon (PIIE) Jun 30, 2022
The return of inflation has touched off an unusual public debate among policymakers around the world, but there are important differences in inflation across economies that call for radically different policy responses. Inflation may be caused by a reduction in an economy's ability to supply goods and services, an increase in the demand for goods and services, or both. Reductions in supply appear to be widespread, but increases in demand are limited mainly to the United States and the United Kingdom.

India Can't Be a Superpower If It Can't Create Jobs
Mihir Sharma (Bloomberg Opinion) Jun 30, 2022
The country's military can serve as a tool to project power or a scheme to generate employment, but it's going to be very difficult to do both.

Is Crypto in Terminal Decline?
PS Commentators (Project Syndicate) Jun 30, 2022
Some have long argued that private digital money and the technology underpinning it will revolutionize finance in the long term. But with Bitcoin plunging, stablecoins collapsing, and crypto lenders freezing withdrawals, we asked PS commentators whether the industry has a future.

Green Energy's Dirty Secret: Its Hunger for African Resources
Cobus van Staden (FP) Jun 30, 2022
The scramble for battery metals threatens to replicate one of the most destructive dynamics in global economic history.