News & Commentary:

Articles/Commentary

G20 meets a low bar for international co-operation
FT View Jul 1, 2019
US-China tensions cool while EU and Mercosur see a breakthrough.

Central banks should issue digital currencies
Jean-Pierre Landau (FT) Jul 1, 2019
They need to protect financial stability, monetary policy and access to public money.

Investors must be wary of post-G20 ‘sugar rush’
Katie Martin (FT) Jul 1, 2019
It’s up to central banks to keep the good times rolling after trade war ceasefire.

The reason the debt is so high? The U.S. is at war — with itself.
Charles Lane (WP) Jul 1, 2019
Foreign financing is enabling the United States to indulge its penchant for dysfunctional political warfare.

The governance of the International Monetary Fund at age 75
Brahima Coulibaly and Kemal Dervis (Brookings) Jul 1, 2019
July 2019 will mark the 75th anniversary of the Bretton Woods system. John Maynard Keynes and Harry White conceived the system during World War II. Their ideas were then adopted at a conference of 44 countries held at the Bretton Woods resort in New Hampshire from July 1-22, 1944. They founded the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development or IBRD, now the largest part of the World Bank Group, and the International Monetary Fund, or IMF, for monetary purposes. Keynes also wanted a third entity to help encourage and regulate trade and commodity markets, but it was not until 1995 that the World Trade Organization was founded.

Latin America Has Taken Steps to Curb Corruption and Boost Sustainability. Will Investors Bite?
Blair Chalmers and Gianleo Frisari (Brink) Jul 1, 2019
Data shows that over the last decade, the private sector has been active in Latin America. Unfortunately, private investment in the region’s infrastructure has slowed in recent years. The region is making moves on corruption and sustainability. Will it be enough?

Tax to Finance the SDGs, but Not to Undermine Them
Sanjeev Gupta, Wilson Prichard, Nora Lustig, Warren Krafchik, Ian Gary and Brahima Coulibaly (CGD) Jul 1, 2019
This week over 170 policymakers, government officials, and members of academia, civil society, and international organisations will gather in Berlin to discuss the future of the Addis Tax Initiative (ATI). The overarching goal of the ATI is to improve domestic revenue mobilisation (DRM) in order to finance the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). More than 55 countries, regional and international organisations have joined the ATI, which commits donors to collectively double their assistance to DRM, developing countries to step up their tax collection efforts, and all members to ensure “policy coherence for development.” However, noticeably absent from the ATI’s progress monitoring is the issue of equity. Indeed, analysis by Oxfam finds that only 7 percent of DRM support reported by ATI donors in 2017 contained clear goals related to equity or fairness in revenue systems.

US Multinational Corporations Are Increasingly Using International Teams for Inventions
Lee G. Branstetter, Britta Glennon, J. Bradford Jensen (PIIE) Jul 1, 2019
US patents granted to US multinational corporations (MNCs) reflect rapid growth in cross-border research and development (R&D) collaboration. The share of all US MNC patents, including those granted to foreign inventors, that have inventors from more than one country has increased from less than 2 percent in 1980 to more than 10 percent in 2014. For leading multinationals, this fraction is considerably higher. In the mid-2010s, IBM publicly announced that more than a third of its US patents had a foreign inventor.

Those U.S. Jobs Revisions Are Hard to Ignore
Gary Shilling (Bloomberg View) Jul 1, 2019
The way payroll growth has been trending, the economy may be on the cusp of a recession, if not already in one.

The Fed Should Keep Its Tools in Their Place
William C Dudley (Bloomberg View) Jul 1, 2019
Linking decisions on interest rates and the balance sheet would be a bad idea.

The Next Housing Bubble Could Come From Technology
Karl W Smith (Bloomberg View) Jul 1, 2019
The ability to buy or sell a home with the click of a mouse could also make housing more affordable.

Democracy Bedevils Brazil’s President Bolsonaro
Mac Margolis (Bloomberg View) Jul 1, 2019
His rocky first six months rebut fears of a return to authoritarianism.

Don't Give Trump Too Much Credit for a Trade Truce
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg View) Jul 1, 2019
The forces shaping the global slowdown predate both the U.S. president and his Chinese counterpart. The solution will take more than handshakes.

The Big Minus at the Heart of OPEC-Plus
Liam Denning (Bloomberg View) Jul 1, 2019
Renewed pledges to cut oil supply are signs of weakness, not strength.

Build Your Own Talent Magnet
Simon Johnson (Project Syndicate) Jul 1, 2019
As the world's biggest cities attract more talent, it becomes increasingly difficult for them to remain productive. This is why policymakers should focus on diffusing the development process geographically by embracing a broader and deeper process for nurturing innovation ecosystems.

A Future Without Currency Wars?
Harold James (Project Syndicate) Jul 1, 2019
US President Donald Trump's protectionist policies and frequent accusations of currency manipulation by other countries speak to the need for a universal monetary system of the type twentieth-century economists such as John Maynard Keynes envisioned. Thanks to digital technologies, the long quest for such a system could be over.

Farewell, Flat World
Jean Pisani-Ferry (Project Syndicate) Jul 1, 2019
The single most important economic development of the last 50 years has been the catch-up in income of a large cohort of poor countries. But that world is gone: in an increasingly digitalized global economy, value creation and appropriation concentrate in the innovation centers and where intangible investments are made.

Does Japan Vindicate Modern Monetary Theory?
Koichi Hamada (Project Syndicate) Jul 1, 2019
It is not true that Japan's experience proves that Modern Monetary Theory works, as some have argued. But increasing deficit-financed spending, in Japan and elsewhere, may still have merit, despite inflationary risks.

Misdirection and the trade war malediction of 2018
Simon Evenett and Johannes Fritz (VoxEU) Jul 1, 2019
What is the practical and intellectual significance of the Sino-US tariff hikes of 2018? This column, taken from a recent Vox eBook, argues that the uncertainty engendered by the trade tensions is likely to have had a larger economic impact than the direct restrictive effect on international trade. The intellectual significance, meanwhile, lies in prompting the questions of what actions constitute a trade war and of whether trade policy analysts, in focusing on instances of brazen protectionism, have failed to spot more far-reaching commercial policy developments.

Robots and firms
Michael Koch, Ilya Manuylov, and Marcel Smolka (VoxEU) Jul 1, 2019
The rise of robots has sparked an intense debate about the labour market effects of their adoption. This column explores differences in robot adoption across firms and analyses the labour market effects of robot adoption at the firm level. It reveals a productivity-enhancing reallocation of labour and market shares across firms, with robot-adopting firms creating new job opportunities and expanding their scale of operations, while non-adopters experience negative output and employment effects in the face of tougher competition.

Labour market shocks and demand for trade protection
Rafael Di Tella and Dani Rodrik (VoxEU) Jul 1, 2019
Economists have traditionally emphasised the benefits of openness to trade, but populists resist it. How generalised is the demand for trade protection? And how does it compare with other disruptions in the labour market? This column suggests that people often react by demanding trade protection when faced with shocks that generate unemployment, with the largest effects observed when it is caused by imports arriving from a poor country.

The breakdown of the covered interest rate parity condition
Konstantinos Efstathiou (Bruegel) Jul 1, 2019
A textbook condition of international finance breaks down. Economic research identifies the interplay between divergent monetary policies and new financial regulation as the source of the puzzle, and generates concerns about unintended consequences for financing conditions and financial stability.

Belt and Road Isn’t Going Away: Get Used to It
David Dodwell (GlobalAsia) Jul 1, 2019
It’s just a pity Chinadidn’t learn more from the development banks.

BRI in Context: China’s Geostrategic Conception of the Developing World
Joshua Eisenman (GlobalAsia) Jul 1, 2019
Can China live up to its ambitious promises?

Economic growth to decelerate in 2019 and then ease further in 2020 as auto sales downshift
William A. Strauss (FRB Chicago Fed Letter) Jul 1, 2019
According to participants in the Chicago Fed’s annual Automotive Outlook Symposium (AOS), the nation’s economic growth is forecasted to slow this year and then moderate close to its long-term average in 2020. Inflation is expected to decline in 2019 and to edge higher in 2020. The unemployment rate is anticipated to move down to 3.6% by the end of 2019, but then tick back up next year. Light vehicle sales are predicted to decrease from 17.2 million units in 2018 to 16.8 million units in 2019 and then to 16.6 million units in 2020

Countries that Profit from the Trade War with China
Tim Quinlan and Shannon Seery (WF) Jul 1, 2019
Tariffs have reduced imports into the United States from China, yet the trade war has not reduced total imports nor has it made a dent in the overall trade deficit. Instead, domestic importers are re-routing foreign supply chains. In this special report we look at how this global shift has impacted U.S. trade and which economies have benefitted.

Factories across the world are under pressure
FT View Jul 2, 2019
Services are supporting growth but may not be immune from tensions.

The stock market has turned into Speakers’ Corner
Dennis K Berman (FT) Jul 2, 2019
Shareholders and active managers are becoming increasingly vocal — and CEOs must adapt.

Danger lurks beneath the consensus on Fed’s next rate move
Robin Wigglesworth (FT) Jul 2, 2019
Market is probably overestimating just how aggressive the US central bank will be.

Two Cheers for a Lackluster Economy
NYT Jul 2, 2019
A record-breaking economic expansion leaves much to be desired — and reason to worry about the future.

Singapore licks its trade war wounds
Nile Bowie (AT) Jul 2, 2019
City-state’s exposure to tariff-disrupted supply chains could soon tilt the trade-reliant economy into recession.

Will Trump make China’s banks more efficient?
Brian Caplen (Banker) Jul 2, 2019
Chinese banks dominate The Banker's Top 1000 ranking. But could a more open Chinese market change this?

Prosper Africa Promises to Double Two-Way Trade and Investment between the US and Africa: But What’s the Starting Point?
Sarah Rose (CGD) Jul 2, 2019
While visiting Maputo last week, Deputy Secretary of Commerce Karen Dunn Kelly and USAID Administrator Mark Green outlined a new vision for expanding private sector activity between the United States and the African continent. Their remarks put flesh on the bones of the administration’s “Prosper Africa” initiative—first unveiled by National Security Advisor John Bolton back in December. In the intervening months there were plenty of questions about how the US government would seek to deliver—particularly when it came to “advancing U.S. trade and commercial ties with nations across the region to the benefit of both the United States and Africa.”

Protectionism under Trump: Policy, Identity, and Anxiety
Marcus Noland (PIIE) Jul 2, 2019
The 2016 presidential campaign of Republican candidate Donald J. Trump departed from a broad US consensus supporting open international trade policies with its emphasis on limits to immigration and international trade. Two explanations have been offered to explain Trump’s electoral success in embracing this shift. One emphasizes economic anxiety and the other emphasizes white voters’ distress over status loss, both as the dominant group at home and in America’s standing abroad.

The EU-Mercosur Trade Accord Sends a Signal to the World’s Protectionists
Anabel González (PIIE) Jul 2, 2019
After nearly 20 years of negotiations, the European Union (EU) and the four founding members of the customs union Mercosur (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay) have reached an agreement to lower trade barriers, sending a signal to the world’s protectionists that increased economic cooperation and integration can benefit all sides. The accord underscores the EU’s willingness to make trade concessions at a time when the United States is threatening to get into a trade war. The four Mercosur countries are betting that they too can benefit from increased trade cooperation. The accord is thus an important accomplishment for both parties.

Game, Set and Match, China?
Tom Clifford (Globalist) Jul 2, 2019
Trump’s playing into Beijing’s hands on Huawei and North Korean nukes underscores China’s global power status.

Why Bad News for China Is Good News for Australia
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg View) Jul 2, 2019
Beijing’s efforts to buttress growth are having positive spillovers in surprising places.

Immigrants Will Pay for Your Old Age
Ferdinando Giugliano (Bloomberg View) Jul 2, 2019
Europe’s voters might not want to hear it, but it will be hard to defuse the continent’s demographic time bomb without lots more migrant workers.

Global Europe Has a Trade Message for Trump
Therese Raphael (Bloomberg View) Jul 2, 2019
The EU’s deal with Mercosur is a riposte to Donald Trump and to Brexiters.

The Global Boom Is About to Go Bust
Conor Sen (Bloomberg View) Jul 2, 2019
Finally. Soon many laggards in the world's economy can enjoy faster growth.

Ripples From Puerto Rico’s Debt Crisis Reach the Mainland
Brian Chappatta (Bloomberg View) Jul 2, 2019
A lawsuit to invalidate $14 billion of Illinois bonds draws inspiration from the island’s restructuring.

OPEC+ Should Be Careful With Its Time Machine
Liam Denning (Bloomberg View) Jul 2, 2019
Shrinking oil’s stock cushion to decade-ago levels, as some producers want, would have unintended consequences.

The Politicians Take Charge at the ECB
Ferdinando Giugliano (Bloomberg View) Jul 2, 2019
Christine Lagarde’s nomination will stir concern about the central bank’s immunity from political influence. She will need to prove her independence.

Oil Makes a Mockery of OPEC’s Big Plans
Mark Gongloff (Bloomberg View) Jul 2, 2019
The cartel is weaker than ever.

Lagarde Is an Inspired and Unusual Choice to Lead the European Central Bank
Mohamed Aly El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Jul 2, 2019
It’s become almost an impossible job, but she is used to those.

Trump's Tariff Barrage Forces the EU Into a Corner
Lionel Laurent (Bloomberg View) Jul 2, 2019
Former WTO chief Pascal Lamy says Europe should try to build a global trading system that cuts out the Americans. That’s a tall order for a soft power.

In Praise of Demographic Decline
Adair Turner (Project Syndicate) Jul 2, 2019
Our expanding ability to automate human work across all sectors – agriculture, industry, and services – makes an ever-growing workforce increasingly irrelevant to improvements in human welfare. That's good news for most of the world, but not for Africa.

The ECB Needs New Inflation Rules
Michael Heise (Project Syndicate) Jul 2, 2019
The European Central Bank has consistently undershot its inflation objective of “close to, but below 2%” for over a decade, potentially threatening its credibility. To maintain credibility, the ECB should adopt a two-pronged strategy focusing on a medium-term inflation target and systematically smoothing financial cycles.

Cross-price effects and the extensive margin in cross-border shopping
Richard Friberg, Frode Steen, and Simen Ulsaker (VoxEU) Jul 2, 2019
Consumers often travel to neighbouring countries to shop at cheaper prices. This column uses sales data from a Norwegian grocery chain to examine how cross-border shopping into Sweden responds to changes in relative prices. It shows that the response to price changes is highest at some distance from the border, where consumers respond by reconsidering whether or not to travel abroad for their shopping.

Productivity growth in the intangible economy
Maarten de Ridder (VoxEU) Jul 2, 2019
The slowdown of productivity growth, the decline of business dynamism, and the rise of market power and firm concentration are three trends that have attracted a lot of attention in academic and policy debates. This column points to the rising use of intangible inputs as a unified explanation for these trends. Firms with high intangible adoption disrupt sectors and initially boost productivity, but negatively affect the entry of new firms and suppress the effect of R&D on innovation and growth in the long run.

Should We Worry about American Debt?: Part IV
Jay H. Bryson and Michael Pugliese (WF) Jul 2, 2019
Federal government debt is much higher than it was before the Great Recession, and the outlook is for sizable budget deficits for the foreseeable future. However, yields on U.S. Treasury securities remain persistently low, helping to keep debt service costs for the federal government manageable.

Oil sanctions are not the way to topple Venezuela’s Maduro
FT View Jul 3, 2019
Famine would be too high a price to pay for regime change.

Demonising Chinese labour practices in Africa is wrong
David Pilling (FT) Jul 3, 2019
A study of companies in Angola and Ethiopia finds that negative stories are mostly untrue.

US aggression on the dollar will prove costly
Mark Sobel (FT) Jul 3, 2019
The US administration’s penchant for weaponising currency markets will hurt both itself and the international monetary system.

Liberalism will endure but must be renewed
Martin Wolf (FT) Jul 3, 2019
It is a work in progress, not a utopian project.

Three good reasons why Draghi should opt for QE
Melvyn Krauss (FT) Jul 3, 2019
It is critical that ECB president’s successor follows through on his stimulus efforts.

ECB cashes in on Lagarde’s alliance-building skills
Ben Hall (FT) Jul 3, 2019
IMF chief’s gifts as a negotiator should outweigh any lack of monetary policy experience.

Huawei: still fighting for survival despite Trump truce
James Kynge, Yuan Yang and Sue-Lin Wong (FT) Jul 3, 2019
The Chinese telecoms group is determined to accelerate efforts to become self-reliant.

China Secular Risks: Deleveraging, Decoupling, and Technology Disruption
Stephen Chang, Gene Frieda, and Isaac Meng (PIMCO) Jul 3, 2019
For global investors, China’s accelerating integration into the global economy holds the potential for diversification and scalable alpha opportunities. Although we see a slowdown of China’s economic expansion as a natural result of the country having attained middle income status as well as deteriorating demographics, managing a smooth transition will not be easy. China poses three key structural challenges to the status quo, all of which have potential investment implications – its decelerating internal growth, the growing disruption of global supply chains, and intensifying global competition for influence

OPEC+ oil supply cuts signal smooth Gulf sailing
Alison Tahmizian Meuse (AT) Jul 3, 2019
Oil kingpin Saudi Arabia and heavyweight Russia agree on a nine-month extension of existing oil cuts

The Excessive Deficit Procedure Was Not Supposed to Be the "Naughty Corner"
Álvaro Leandro (PIIE) Jul 3, 2019
Italy’s growing public debt and its failure to comply with the European Union’s fiscal rules prompted the European Commission to warn that it might submit the country to an Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP). The Commission finally announced on July 3 that, thanks to last minute fiscal measures, Italy would avoid the procedure “at this stage.”

India Needs to Get Its Numbers Right
Mihir Sharma (Bloomberg View) Jul 3, 2019
Sticking to its fiscal deficit targets is important, but so is being realistic about what the government is taxing and spending.

Derivatives Vigilantes Are Punishing the Badly Behaved Nations
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Jul 3, 2019
Countries that score poorly on ESG criteria pay more to borrow. Time for central banks to step up.

Italy Faces a 40-Billion Euro Reckoning
Ferdinando Giugliano (Bloomberg View) Jul 3, 2019
Investors are celebrating the possible EU deficit truce. But it will be hard for the populists to climb down from their promises on the 2020 budget.

Too Many Companies Drain Value From the Economy
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Jul 3, 2019
That’s the opposite of what they’re supposed to do.

Can Anything Delay the Inevitable July Fed Rate Cut?
Brian Chappatta (Bloomberg View) Jul 3, 2019
There’s enough data this month to convince policy makers to stand pat if it all breaks the right way. It starts with the jobs report.

Hong Kong’s Property Bubble Is Protest-Proof
Ronald W Chan (Bloomberg View) Jul 3, 2019
Chronic undersupply and the prospect of lower interest rates are the steel bars that reinforce the city’s sky-high prices.

Why China's Stock Market Is Scarier Than 2015
Shuli Ren (Bloomberg View) Jul 3, 2019
The number of listed companies with little or no analyst coverage has grown. That’s a big risk for passive investors.

Cambodia Throws a Wrench into Trump’s Trade War
Sam Rainsy (Project Syndicate) Jul 3, 2019
Under the leadership of Prime Minister Hun Sen, Cambodia has become a haven for companies eager to circumvent rules that threaten their bottom line. This does not bode well for America’s ability to enforce its trade tariffs against China – or for Cambodia’s future.

Mexico’s Migration Mistake
Jorge G. Castañeda (Project Syndicate) Jul 3, 2019
US President Donald Trump successfully used the threat of tariffs to railroad his Mexican counterpart, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, into conceding to virtually all of his demands on migration. But as painful as those tariffs might have been, they would have cost Mexico less than its current treatment of migrants.

Power and Interdependence in the Trump Era
Joseph S. Nye, Jr. (Project Syndicate) Jul 3, 2019
President Donald Trump's manipulation of America's privileged international system will strengthen other countries' incentives to extricate themselves from US networks of interdependence in the long run. In the meantime, there will be costly damage to the international institutions that limit conflict and create global public goods.

Would developing countries be safer if governments listened to business owners more?
Edmund Malesky and Markus Taussig (VoxDev) Jul 3, 2019
Participation in drafting regulation appears to make firms more willing to see government as a legitimate regulatory authority

The economic geography of sovereignist Europe
Gianmarco Ottaviano (VoxEU) Jul 3, 2019
Economic geography strikes back. After a couple of decades of easy talk about the ‘death of distance’ in the age of globalisation, the promise of a world of rising living standards for all is increasingly challenged by the resilience of regional disparities within countries. As long as many people and firms are not geographically mobile – and those who are tend to be the most skilled and productive – easier distant interactions can actually strengthen rather than weaken agglomeration economies. Recent electoral trends in Europe can be understood to a surprisingly large extent from this angle.

Digital currency areas
Markus K Brunnermeier, Harold James, and Jean-Pierre Landau (VoxEU) Jul 3, 2019
Thanks to digitalisation, we now can hold money on our mobile phones and transfer wealth in real time to almost every corner of the world. Currencies can be swapped within milliseconds on smart phones and people can hold many currencies simultaneously in digital wallets. This column considers how digitalisation will affect the international monetary system, arguing that a new kind of currency area will emerge, held together by digital interconnectedness. These digital currency areas will cut across borders, increase currency competition and, in the process, may redefine the international monetary system.

While Trump Isolates the U.S., It’s ‘Let’s Make a Deal’ for the Rest of the World
Keith Johnson (FP) Jul 3, 2019
Globalization is alive and well. It’s just the United States sitting on the sidelines.

Rate cuts cannot curb property boom and bust
Gillian Tett (FT) Jul 4, 2019
There is little evidence that monetary policy alone can control house price swings.

How to navigate Europe’s toxic stock markets
Jul 4, 2019
Opportunity lies in mimicking private equity investing, within listed equities.

Warning on pensions could invigorate Japan stocks
Leo Lewis (FT) Jul 4, 2019
Equity-trading account applications spike after gloomy savings report from regulator.

Trump Is Losing His Trade Wars
Paul Krugman (NYT) Jul 4, 2019
The pain is real, but the coercion isn’t.

The Trump Federal Reserve 2.0
WSJ Jul 4, 2019
Two nominations inject some much-needed intellectual diversity.

China is not an enemy
M. Taylor Fravel, J. Stapleton Roy, Michael D. Swaine, Susan A. Thornton and Ezra Vogel (WP) Jul 5, 2019
Here are seven propositions for fixing the downward spiral in relations.

A change of direction under Christine Lagarde is unlikely
Economist Jul 4, 2019
A new boss at the ECB.

OPEC’s predictable deal cannot hide its giant problems
Economist Jul 4, 2019
How long will the cartel accept losing market share to American shale?

The G-20 Summit Showed a World in Disarray, but Events on the Margins Suggest Progress
John West (Brink) Jul 4, 2019
The G-20 should be well-positioned to tackle the myriad problems afflicting the global economy, but as is often the case, limited concrete progress was made. Instead, most of the high points occurred on the margins of the official meeting.

Even Trade War Winners Can Lose. Just Ask Vietnam
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg View) Jul 4, 2019
Having positioned itself as a beneficiary of the U.S.-China conflict, it was inevitable the country would face an American backlash.

Why Can't Global Equity Markets Match the U.S.?
John Authers and Robert Burgess (Bloomberg View) Jul 4, 2019
The recent outperformance isn’t a new phenomenon. Also, REITs get no boost from low rates, equity inequality and EU male resentment.

Where India Can Find a Cool $1 Trillion
Andy Mukherjee (Bloomberg View) Jul 4, 2019
Australia's model of selling public assets such as power grids and airports to fund further infrastructure investment offers promise.

Why I've Lost Faith in China's Private Sector
Shuli Ren (Bloomberg View) Jul 4, 2019
With corporate-governance scandals piling up, there's little to inspire confidence as the economy weakens.

Draghi Should Replace Lagarde at the IMF
Ferdinando Giugliano (Bloomberg View) Jul 4, 2019
The IMF may well prefer to hire a non-European as its next boss, but no one is better qualified than the departing ECB chief.

They're Getting Things Back to Front Down Under
David Fickling (Bloomberg View) Jul 4, 2019
Australia’s weakening economy needs a shot in the arm, so it’s a shame most of these tax cuts won’t take effect for years.

The Next Phase of Trump’s Trade War with China
Yu Yongding (Project Syndicate) Jul 4, 2019
China remains committed to its 40-year-old process of reform and opening up. But following through on this commitment will require China's leaders to find ways to manage escalating tensions with the US and avoid a costly – and potentially devastating – reconfiguration of the global economy.

Lagarde Is the Right Choice
Philippe Legrain (Project Syndicate) Jul 4, 2019
The nomination of Christine Lagarde to be the next president of the European Central Bank is a breath of fresh air for the stale, male-dominated institution. Incumbent President Mario Draghi may seem like a hard act to follow, but Lagarde has what it takes to succeed. She needs to be bold.

Mysteries of Monetary Policy
Robert J. Barro (Project Syndicate) Jul 4, 2019
Since the federal funds rate peaked at 22% in the early 1980s, inflation in the United States has remained low and stable, leading many to believe that the mere threat of renewed interest-rate hikes has kept it in check. But no one really knows why inflation has been subdued for so long.

Trade uncertainty is rising and can harm the global economy
Hites Ahir, Nicholas Bloom, and Davide Furceri (VoxEU) Jul 4, 2019
Recent developments have inspired efforts to measure trade uncertainty. This column presents a new index of world trade uncertainty for 143 countries, measured on a quarterly basis from 1996 onwards, using the Economist Intelligence Unit country reports. The index shows that uncertainty in trade is rising sharply. This has important implications for global economic prospects.

The decline of US business dynamism
Ufuk Akcigit and Sina T. Ates (VoxEU) Jul 4, 2019
The US economy has witnessed a number of striking trends that indicate rising market concentration and a slowdown in business dynamism in recent decades. This column uses a micro-founded model of endogenous firm dynamics to show that a decline in the intensity of knowledge diffusion from frontier firms to laggard ones plays a key role in the observed shifts. It presents new evidence on higher concentration of patenting in the hands of firms with the largest stock that corroborates declining knowledge diffusion in the economy.

Brexit clouds gather over UK economic prospects
FT View Jul 5, 2019
Data are pointing to the first contraction since the eurozone crisis.

Regulators will be watching as banks scrap Libor
Philip Stafford (FT) Jul 5, 2019
Transition from tainted benchmark represents big conduct risk for lenders.

Do not expect another big boom in stocks in China
James Kynge (FT) Jul 5, 2019
Beijing is injecting liquidity but is conscious of the risk of inflating property.

US is losing the 5G war to China
Gordon Watts (AT) Jul 5, 2019
American tech royalty confirm in a defense report that Beijing has taken the lead in tomorrow’s technology

Winners and Losers in Europe
Denis MacShane (Globalist) Jul 5, 2019
Europe and the EU have undergone great changes in recent times. Here are five winners and five losers.

Lagarde Is the Right Choice for the ECB
Bloomberg View Jul 5, 2019
She’s more than acquainted with the problems Europe’s facing. She’s lived them.

Greece Is Ready to Turn the Page on Tsipras
Ferdinando Giugliano (Bloomberg View) Jul 5, 2019
A victory by Kyriakos Mitsotakis would be welcomed by business and investors.

The Myth of the Tight U.S. Labor Market
Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji Jul 5, 2019
Jobs growth is substantially slower than the headline employment data indicate.

Toward a Euro-Pacific Partnership
Zaki Laïdi, Shumpei Takemori, and Yves Tiberghien (Project Syndicate) Jul 5, 2019
Notwithstanding the latest truce between the United States and China, the world has entered a dangerous new phase of great-power competition. Under such conditions, smaller powers such as European and Pacific-Rim countries will stand no chance of enjoying fair and open trade unless they form a united front.

Labour standards in Asian export factories: Does compliance pay?
Greg Distelhorst and Richard M. Locke (VoxDev) Jul 5, 2019
Compliant factories have higher quality and performance. Even so, noncompliant firms dominate the market. Could stronger financial incentives help?

The global capital flows cycle and its drivers
Maurizio Michael Habib and Fabrizio Venditti (VoxEU) Jul 5, 2019
There is a global cycle in capital flows that is intimately connected to global risk. This column argues that, contrary to common wisdom, US monetary policy is not the only factor, or even the main factor, behind global risk and this global cycle. Financial shocks matter more than US monetary policy. Domestic policies may still mitigate the cycle of global capital flows at the country level.

Financial links between China and America deepen, despite the trade war
Economist Jul 6, 2019
The two superpowers are at each other’s necks, but also in each other’s pockets.

Intergenerational mobility in Africa
Alberto Alesina, Sebastian Hohmann, Stelios Michalopoulos, and Elias Papaioannou (VoxEU) Jul 6, 2019
Over the last few decades, education in Africa has been rising and living standards have been improving. Yet certain countries and regions face rampant conflict and persistent poverty. This column we uses individual-level data covering more than 20 million people spanning 26 African countries since the late 1960s to study intergenerational mobility in education across the continent. It uncovers large variation in upward and downward mobility both across and within countries.

Is the China model a threat?
William Overholt (EAF) Jul 7, 2019
The China model doesn't really exist.

That New Consensus on China? It’s Wrong
Susan Thornton (Bloomberg View) Jul 7, 2019
The country poses a serious challenge, but what’s required is serious diplomacy not threats and tweetstorms.

The US must avoid igniting a currency war
FT View Jul 8, 2019
Arbitrary calculations should not be used as a basis for imposing tariffs.

The weakness of Opec+ is evident
Nick Butler (FT) Jul 8, 2019
The oil production deal led by Russia and Saudi Arabia cannot stop the market trend.

Europe uses trade deals to push for climate pledges
Martin Sandbu (FT) Jul 8, 2019
Deals with Mercosur and Vietnam include more carrots than sticks to enforce higher standards.

The Myth of Monetary Stimulus Is Unraveling
George Melloan (WSJ) Jul 8, 2019
Central bankers around the world are admitting that low interest rates can’t sustain real growth.

Trump's Mini-Trade War with India
Chad P. Bown (PIIE) Jul 8, 2019
India has long been a challenging trading partner for the United States. And in the World Trade Organization (WTO), it has wavered between a begrudging participant and a full-scale obstructionist. Successive US administrations have tried to pry open its markets by offering trade concessions to get it to play by the multilateral rules, with limited success.

The Dollars of Destruction: Infrastructure Damage Costs in LMICs
W. Gyude Moore (CGD) Jul 8, 2019
The increasing regularity and intensity of extreme weather events has drawn needed attention to incorporating resilience into planning and construction of infrastructure.

Congress Is Threatening to Make the Next Financial Crisis Worse
Bloomberg View Jul 8, 2019
Killing a planned accounting reform would make the system more vulnerable.

Latin America and Free Trade Score a Win
Mac Margolis (Bloomberg View) Jul 8, 2019
A trade pact between the European Union and Mercosur opens doors on both sides of the Atlantic.

Can Multilateralism Survive the Sino-American Rivalry?
Ngaire Woods (Project Syndicate) Jul 8, 2019
The US-China trade and technology war has invited comparisons to the Cold War. For international organizations, the lesson of great-power rivalries is to focus on facilitating cooperation toward specifically defined goals, rather than attempting to establish new broad-based rules.

The ECB Needs to Explain Itself
Stefan Gerlach (Project Syndicate) Jul 8, 2019
Ambiguity is hampering effective policymaking by the European Central Bank and leaving market participants wondering what to expect. A review of the ECB's policy framework would help to eliminate such ambiguity – and place the Bank on much sounder footing for a new era of leadership.

The Limits of Mass Protest in a Dictatorship
Ian Buruma (Project Syndicate) Jul 8, 2019
Public opinion cannot remove a communist government by electing another one. But the PRC does aspire to a certain degree of respectability in the world. Sending tanks to crush protests in Hong Kong would make China look very bad – though this does not mean that the government would not do so, if it saw no other way.

Will India Become a Superpower? Not Like This
Mihir Sharma (Bloomberg View) Jul 19, 2019
The government’s new budget offers hope that the country can beat the current slowdown, but not its long-term challenges.

Euro 20/20: Twenty papers to better understand the single currency
Nauro Campos and Fabrizio Coricelli (VoxEU) Jul 19, 2019
This year has seen the 20th anniversary of the euro, but so far we have not seen many articles that take stock of the accomplishments and disillusionments of the single currency, and of how to improve it. This column hopes to change this by picking and discussing 20 papers that economists and policymakers should read, or re-read, and reflect upon in this 20th anniversary year. This year has seen the 20th anniversary of the euro, but so far we have not seen many articles that take stock of the accomplishments and disillusionments of the single currency, and of how to improve it. This column hopes to change this by picking and discussing 20 papers that economists and policymakers should read, or re-read, and reflect upon in this 20th anniversary year.

Shipping costs vs industrial production as a measure of world economic activity
James Hamilson (VoxEU) Jul 8, 2019
Shipping costs offer a potentially attractive measure of world real economic activity. However, the popular approach of removing a deterministic trend is not consistent with the observed behaviour of shipping costs and results in an unrealistic measure in data since 2015. This column compares alternative monthly measures based on shipping costs with direct estimates of world industrial production in terms of coherence with world GDP and usefulness for forecasting commodity prices, and concludes that industrial production is a much better measure. If shipping costs are to be used, the cyclical component should not be calculated using residuals from a linear trend.

Greece’s New Prime Minister Is Just as Populist as the Old One
Yiannis Baboulias (FP) Jul 8, 2019
Sunday’s elections in Greece saw the triumph of the center-right New Democracy party. But the party employed the same populist scare tactics of the far-left party it defeated.

How Have Changing Sectoral Trends Affected GDP Growth?
Andrew Foerster, Andreas Hornstein, Pierre-Daniel Sarte, and Mark Watson (FRBSF Econ Letter) Jul 8, 2019
Trend GDP growth has slowed about 2.3 percentage points to 1.7% since 1950. Different economic sectors have contributed to this slowing to varying degrees depending on the distinct trends of technology and labor growth in each sector. The extent to which sectors influence overall growth depends on the degree of spillovers to other sectors, which amplifies the effect of sectoral changes. Three sectors with slowing growth and linkages to other sectors—construction, nondurable goods, and professional and business services—account for 60% of the decline in trend GDP growth.

Hedge funds fret about rising markets across Europe
Laurence Fletcher (FT) Jul 9, 2019
Central bank support lifts stocks, but also exposes fears of misallocation of capital.

Donald Trump’s boom will prove to be hot air
Martin Wolf (FT) Jul 10, 2019
His policy of regressive Keynesianism shows the Republicans have given up on fiscal responsibility.

Investors in Europe should hunker down for trouble ahead
Mohamed El-Erian (FT) Jul 9, 2019
High asset prices are too detached from economic fundamentals.

Benn Steil and Benjamin Della Rocca (WP) Jul 9, 2019
Trump is doubling down on the idea that trade wars are good in and of themselves. That's demonstrably false.

Good news — and bad news — from Greece
Anne Applebaum (WP) Jul 9, 2019
Greece is back. But its trauma lingers.

The Long and the Short of It: Making Sense of the Current Interest Rate Environment
Scott A. Mather and Anmol Sinha (PIMCO) Jul 9, 2019
With the extent and speed of the move in sovereign bond yields, is interest rate exposure less attractive for investors? Not necessarily.

Trump's Mini-Trade War with India
Chad P. Bown (PIIE) Jul 8, 2019
India has long been a challenging trading partner for the United States. And in the World Trade Organization (WTO), it has wavered between a begrudging participant and a full-scale obstructionist. Successive US administrations have tried to pry open its markets by offering trade concessions to get it to play by the multilateral rules, with limited success.

The G-20 Underperforms Again
Jeffrey J. Schott (PIIE) Jul 9, 2019
The big headline from the Group of Twenty (G-20) meeting in Osaka on June 28–29 concerned a ceasefire in the trade war between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping of China. Less noticed was the notable lack of progress on confronting urgent crises over the future of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the Paris Agreement on climate change.

Trade wars and trade laws
Harun Onder (Brookings) Jul 9, 2019
Trade policy has recently been rediscovered as a foreign policy instrument that can, at least in theory, deliver non-trade results.

Greece: The Mitsotakis Family Clan is Back in Power
Denis MacShane (Globalist) Jul 9, 2019
Mitsotakis can celebrate his win and the return of his family clan to political power. But the problems will arrive very fast in Greece.

Greece: A Solid Base for Reform
Holger Schmieding (Globalist) Jul 9, 2019
The European Commission should grant Greece short-term fiscal leeway under the condition that Mitsotakis indeed delivers the promised reforms.

China Learns an Iron Law of Markets
David Fickling (Bloomberg View) Jul 8, 2019
The government simply doesn’t control enough ore production to damp prices that are causing its metal industry pain.

The Case for a World Carbon Bank
Kenneth Rogoff (Project Syndicate) Jul 8, 2019
To the dismay of many energy experts, the World Bank recently rather capriciously decided to stop funding virtually all new fossil-fuel plants. But phasing out readily available coal is a move that most major developing countries simply cannot afford without adequate incentives.

Conditions Are Ripe for the Fed to Spring a Dove Trap
Timothy A Duy (Bloomberg View) Jul 9, 2019
A small interest rate cut seems reasonable, but the economic data doesn’t justify anything more than that.

Trump Is Defeating His Own Nafta Replacement
Jonathan Bernstein (Bloomberg View) Jul 9, 2019
The administration negotiated a deal but can’t get organized enough to persuade Congress to pass it.

China’s Winning This Mini Trade War
Tim Culpan (Bloomberg View) Jul 9, 2019
Japan’s move to restrict exports of certain materials to South Korea only hurts the big players and helps Beijing.

The Short Road From Libor's Death to ‘Armageddon’
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Jul 9, 2019
Precious few market participants have grasped the urgency of replacing Libor. A sea of lawsuits may ensue.

The Age of Global Supply Chains Is in Trouble
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Jul 9, 2019
Trade relations are fraying and so are the worldwide networks that made so many goods cheaper to produce.

The Central Banker Europe Needs
Barry Eichengreen (Project Syndicate) Jul 9, 2019
While having a president with specialized training as a monetary economist would benefit the European Central Bank, such training is not essential. If Christine Lagarde is confirmed for the position, Europe will learn that other attributes matter much more.

Is Plutocracy Really the Problem?
J. Bradford DeLong (Project Syndicate) Jul 9, 2019
After the 2008 financial crisis, economic policymakers in the United States did enough to avert another Great Depression, but fell far short of what was needed to ensure a strong recovery. Attributing that failure to the malign influence of the plutocracy is tempting, but it misses the root of the problem.

What’s Driving Populism?
Dani Rodrik (Project Syndicate) Jul 9, 2019
If authoritarian populism is rooted in economics, then the appropriate remedy is a populism of another kind – targeting economic injustice and inclusion, but pluralist in its politics and not necessarily damaging to democracy. If it is rooted in culture and values, however, there are fewer options.

The Value of Global China
Jonathan Woetzel and Jeongmin Seong (Project Syndicate) Jul 9, 2019
At a time when the risks of international engagement are more obvious than ever, China faces important questions about whether – and to what extent – it should continue to pursue opening up its economy to the rest of the world. At stake may be some $22-37 trillion in economic value – or 15-26% of world GDP – by 2040.

The persistence of trade policy beyond import tariffs
Jason Garred (VoxEU) Jul 19, 2019
Like other countries participating in the multilateral trading system, China agreed to limit the use of import tariffs when it joined the WTO. As this column shows, however, it continued to employ other instruments of trade policy, including a new set of restrictions on exports which partly restored the asymmetric treatment of Chinese industries embodied in its pre-WTO import tariffs. Today's tariff wars appear to be just the latest example of an ongoing battle whose skirmishes have taken many forms.

China-US Trade War: Japan G20 Déjà vu?
Jack Rasmus (WFR) Jul 9, 2019
This past June 29, 2019 Trump and China president, Xi, met again at the G20 in Japan in the midst of a potential further escalating the trade war. Has anything changed as a result of their meeting? Or is it just deja vu of their prior G20 meeting in Buenos Aires on December 2, 2018?

Three Key Questions About Trump and the Economy
John Cassidy (New Yorker) Jul 9, 2019
There are signs that voters are inclined to give President Trump credit for the recent good economic news.

China’s global business footprint shrinks
Derek Scissors (AEI) Jul 9, 2019
China’s investment and construction around the world plunged in the first half of 2019 and is unlikely to return to 2016–17 levels in the foreseeable future. The principal cause is fewer large transaction by state-owned enterprises. These firms rely on foreign currency provided by Beijing for global activities, and hard currency may be rationed indefinitely. There are brighter spots. The raw number of investments held up better than transaction size. The private share of China’s global investment climbed, and the greenfield share rose sharply. Investment in the Belt and Road Initiative outperformed that in traditionally favored rich economies such as Australia. Chinese investment in the US has been minor in size for two years. Policymakers should shift focus from screening to unwanted activity by Chinese firms, including intellectual property theft and other criminal acts. Enforcement targeting specific firms is superior to tariffs but should go beyond largely empty steps taken to date.

Economists share blame for China’s ‘monstrous’ turn
Janos Kornai (FT) Jul 10, 2019
Western intellectuals must now seek to contain Beijing.

US junk-bond price move a warning for investors
Joe Rennison (FT) Jul 10, 2019
Drama surrounding H2O and other funds hit by withdrawals puts liquidity risk back in focus.

Time for the Fed to Cut Interest Rates
NYT Jul 10, 2019
The Federal Reserve should demonstrate its independence by cutting interest rates — because the economy needs the help.

These Companies Wanted Tariffs. How Are They Faring Now?
Peter Eavis (NYT) Jul 10, 2019
President Trump’s trade policies have helped American steel, aluminum, lumber, solar and washing-machine businesses, but not as much as they might have hoped.

Why Vietnam Loves Donald Trump
WSJ Jul 10, 2019
Tariffs are changing supply chains, not cutting the trade deficit.

Democrats May Inflate Another Housing Bubble
Jason L. Riley (WSJ) Jul 10, 2019
Subsidies and regulations created the 2008 crisis. Guess what the 2020 candidates are proposing

Forget ‘hawks’ and ‘doves’ at the Fed. We need a level monetary playing field.
Judy Shelton (WP) Jul 10, 2019
A monetary misstep that exacerbated exchange-rate pressures could raise the specter of global financial instability.

What bond markets tell about China’s economy
Alicia García-Herrero and Gary Ng (Bruegel) Jul 10, 2019
Macro data doesn’t provide a comprehensive picture to investors, but bond issuance data can fill in some gaps.

Brexit banking exodus creates a dilemma for Dublin
Rebecca Christie (Bruegel) Jul 10, 2019
Irish consumers’ interests may not coincide with the needs of banks relocating here.

Boris Johnson Is About to Meet Cold, Hard Economic Reality
Ferdinando Giugliano (Bloomberg View) Jul 10, 2019
No amount of self-proclaimed "optimism" can hide the truth about Britain's economy. A no-deal Brexit would only make things much, much worse.

Defend Fed Independence. You Might Need It Someday.
Karl W Smith (Bloomberg View) Jul 10, 2019
The supply-side right and modern-monetary-theory left both see White House control of monetary policy as a boon to favored policies. Uh-oh.

There’s Value in Trying a Wealth Tax
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Jul 10, 2019
Something needs to be done to raise revenue and lower inequality.

Singapore Sends an Alert to the Investing World
Andy Mukherjee (Bloomberg View) Jul 10, 2019
The state investment firm has revived the specter of secular stagnation, as the prospect of rising interest rates recedes.

A New Fantasy Links Britain and India
Pankaj Mishra (Bloomberg View) Jul 10, 2019
Boris Johnson and Narendra Modi share one thing in common: delusions of grandeur for their nations.

Italy and Austria Take the Bond Market to a Very Weird Place
Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg View) Jul 10, 2019
Ultra-long Italian debt at 2.85% is the flip-side of the same crazy coin that gave us 100-year Austrian at 1.17%. Investors are in a very weird place.

Why Investors Should Go Beyond African GDP
Paulo Gomes (Project Syndicate) Jul 10, 2019
Amid bleak GDP-based forecasts of Africa's economic performance, some investors are tempted to write off the entire continent. But those who seize opportunities to gain an accurate and nuanced picture of Africa’s economic performance and prospects could reap vast rewards.

Does the G20 Still Matter?
Jim O'Neill (Project Syndicate) Jul 10, 2019
The first few gatherings of the G20, at the height of the global financial crisis, yielded concrete results, and seemed to promise an auspicious future for global governance. But in the years since, the group has increasingly replaced action with empty talk, piling ever more goals on top of the unmet objectives of summits past.

How to Address Venezuela’s Crushing Debt Burden
Ricardo Hausmann, Alejandro Grisanti, and José Ignacio Hernández (Project Syndicate) Jul 10, 2019
The legacy of Chávismo includes a mountain of foreign-currency-denominated claims against the Venezuelan public sector, totaling $150 billion, almost all of which is now in default. When Nicolás Maduro finally leaves power, how can these claims be settled while meeting the country's desperate need for humanitarian relief and economic recovery?

Assessing the preferences in preferential trade
Alvaro Espitia, Aaditya Mattoo, Mondher Mimouni, Xavier Pichot, and Nadia Rocha (VoxEU) Jul 10, 2019
Preferential trade agreements cover more than half of world trade. This column argues that while the 280 preferential trade agreements in existence have substantially widened the scope of free trade and reduced average applied tariffs, they have struggled against traditional bastions of protection in poorer countries and have not been able to eliminate the high levels of protection for a handful of sensitive products. While preference margins offered to partners in such agreements seem large, their significance shrinks when competition from both preferential and non-preferential sources is considered.

Government Rift Deepens Mexico’s Economic Crisis
Keith Johnson (FP) Jul 10, 2019
Mexico’s finance minister abruptly resigned Tuesday, signaling the potentially dire trajectory of the country’s economy as President Andrés Manuel López Obrador struggles to find success with his economic ideas.

Understanding the US-China Trade Disconnect
Liu Baocheng and Hilton Root (Diplomat) Jul 10, 2019
Without evidence that its basic economic system will fail, talks will not force China to change its development path.

Saving Asia’s Democracies
Joshua Kurlantzick (Diplomat) Jul 10, 2019
A Cold War-style, grand ideological campaign against authoritarianism is unlikely to halt democracy’s global regression.

The Death of British Steel and the Myth of the Good Brexit
Sam Knight (New Yorker) Jul 10, 2019
On May 22nd, the United Kingdom’s second-largest steelmaker went into liquidation.

A rare chance to fix the global corporate tax system
José Antonio Ocampo (FT) Jul 11, 2019
Multinationals who book revenue in havens should be taxed at home.

Italy’s anti-business sentiment is ringing alarm bells
Rachel Sanderson (FT) Jul 11, 2019
Rome is using carrots and sticks to direct private investment.

Markets misunderstand Brexit chaos lying ahead
Helen Thomas (FT) Jul 11, 2019
Political risk ignored by zombie markets, but reckoning awaits.

Brexit means goodbye to Britain as we know it
Martin Wolf (FT) Jul 12, 2019
What is happening now is not worthy of a serious country.

Why Stocks Are Hitting Records as Economic Fears Rise: ‘There Is No Alternative’
Stephen Grocer (NYT) Jul 11, 2019
Markets now have echoes of the mid-2010s, when central banks around the world were holding interest rates so low investors had little choice but to buy stocks.

The choice of the IMF’s next boss could be a coronation
Economist Jul 11, 2019
That will not prevent a fight over the fund’s future.

America’s expansion is now the longest on record
Economist Jul 11, 2019
What could bring it to an end?

As Tensions Rise Between India and the US, Are We Reaching a Point of No Return?
Ritesh Kumar Singh and Steven Raj (Brink) Jul 11, 2019
Washington says that New Delhi is one of its strategic partners. But recent policy changes could push India toward countries like China and Russia — the exact outcome that the U.S. is hoping to avoid.

Avoiding a debt crisis in Africa
Shanta Devarajan, Indermit Gill, and Kenan Karakülah (Brookings) Jul 11, 2019
In a previous post, we identified three sources of concern about Africa’s debt. The question is what can be done to prevent these troubling factors from turning into a full-blown debt crisis. As elaborated in our paper, we suggest three possible remedies that range from the medium- to the long-term.

Markets Don't Believe Trump's Trade War Is Zero-Sum
Olivier Blanchard and Christopher G. Collins (PIIE) Jul 11, 2019
The Trump administration views trade mostly as a zero-sum game. In the past, it argues, China has won and the United States has lost. It is thus time to turn the tables, for the United States to win and for China to lose. Most economists, by contrast, believe that trade is a mostly positive-sum game, that both countries can gain from more open trade and both can lose from less open trade.

Who's Winning the US-China Trade War? It’s Not the United States or China
Sherman Robinson and Karen Thierfelder (PIIE) Jul 11, 2019
The US-China trade war will leave both countries worse off in coming years, according to an analysis of current and threatened trade scenarios that is based on a global simulation model of the world economy.

Christine Lagarde's ECB Top Team Is Running Out of Economists
Ferdinando Giugliano (Bloomberg View) Jul 11, 2019
Benoit Coeure is one of the central bank’s sharpest monetary thinkers. His replacement will need to have similar gifts to support the new president.

Europe Must Learn From the Greek Tragedy
Mervyn Allister King (Bloomberg View) Jul 11, 2019
The task facing Greece’s new government is harder than it needed to be, and Europe is partly to blame.

An Educated Workforce Is Overrated
Conor Sen (Bloomberg View) Jul 11, 2019
The low unemployment rate has shown another path to wage growth and reducing inequality.

You Can’t Gauge the Global Economy Just by Looking at Ships
David Fickling (Bloomberg View) Jul 11, 2019
The Baltic Dry Index became a prophecy of sorts amid the global financial crisis. Its predictive powers since then have been patchy.

The Fed Satisfies Fewer and Fewer These Days
Mohamed Aly El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Jul 11, 2019
And no wonder. It's somehow expected to "save" an economy that's already thriving.

How an AI Utopia Would Work
Sami Mahroum (Project Syndicate) Jul 11, 2019
After centuries of industrialism, we are now on the cusp of a technological revolution that has the potential to abolish all necessary work, giving rise to societies built around leisure and a classical ideal of freedom. The biggest hurdle to realizing such societies is cultural, not technological.

How to Keep Central Banks Independent
Patrick Bolton, Stephen Cecchetti, Jean-Pierre Danthine, and Xavier Vives (Project Syndicate) Jul 11, 2019
Some observers say central banks can best mitigate risks to their independence by returning to the narrow price-stability mandate that served them so well prior to the global financial crisis. But this advice is misguided: central banks must revive their original role as guardians of financial stability.

The Art of Wait and See
Keyu Jin (Project Syndicate) Jul 11, 2019
Following yet another "truce" between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, Sino-American negotiations over trade, technology, and related issues appear to be back on. But those hoping for a respite in the escalating rivalry should not hold their breath.

America’s Captive Labor
Michael Poyker (Project Syndicate) Jul 11, 2019
Many Americans may assume that the country’s convict-labor system is a thing of the past, especially given unflattering media coverage of other countries’ reliance on prison labor to produce export goods. But in 2005 – the most recent year for which countrywide data is available – America’s convict-labor system accounted for 4.2% of total manufacturing employment.

How tariff hikes may trigger re-routing circumvention
Xuepeng Liu and Huimin Shi (VoxEU) Jul 11, 2019
The US-China trade war has continued for almost a year, but its effectiveness in preventing some Chinese origin products reaching the US may not be as great as it seems. This column shows how trade re-routing has been used in the past to circumvent antidumping duties in the context of trade tariffs. Firms may be able to avoid tariffs by sending their products to a third country, where the goods are reissued certificates of origin and then sent to the final destination country without being subject to the same tariffs.

Automatic stabilisers in banking capital
Charles Goodhart, Dirk Schoenmaker (VoxEU) Jul 11, 2019
While banking is procyclical, the capital framework is largely static. The countercyclical capital buffer is discretionary, with potential danger of inaction, and is also limited in scale. This column proposes an expanded capital conservation buffer, which would act as an automatic stabiliser. This could incorporated in the next Basel review and the upcoming Solvency II review.

World Trade Organization 2.0: Reforming Multilateral Trade Rules for the Digital Age
Dan Ciuriak (CIGI) Jul 11, 2019
The World Trade Organization (WTO) is not equipped to address the issues of today's digital era, says Dan Ciuriak. In this policy brief, he makes the case for a new WTO digital round to create a multilateral framework that is fit for the digital age.

Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble
Rob Arnott, Bradford Cornell, and Shane Shepherd (RA) Jul 11, 2019
Looking back over the last 15 months, the authors assess their success at identifying asset bubbles and anti-bubbles in April 2018. The scorecard is in their favor. More importantly, however, they review how their definitions of a bubble and an anti-bubble continue to provide useful insights for where investors can find value in today’s global markets.

The Fed’s dovish turn looks like a surrender
FT View Jul 12, 2019
Pressure from Trump makes it harder for the central bank to do its job.

Lagarde’s IMF departure leaves door open for Thiam
Patrick Jenkins (FT) Jul 12, 2019
Credit Suisse boss has not said he wants the job, but that hasn’t squashed the rumours.

Paradoxes plague Wall Street’s record-breaking run
Richard Henderson (FT) Jul 12, 2019
Uncertain growth backdrop means now is not the time to make bold bets on stocks.

Investors must not become blinded by easing potential
Michael Mackenzie (FT) Jul 12, 2019
Rate cuts buoy markets but reflect ugly threats to global economy.

Common transport infrastructure: Welfare effects of the Belt and Road Initiative
Francois de Soyres, Alen Mulabdic and Michele Ruta (VoxEU) Jul 12, 2019
Common transport infrastructure can improve welfare for participating countries, but they are costly undertakings with potentially asymmetric effects on trade and income of individual countries. This column uses new data on China’s Belt and Road transport projects to quantify the economic impact of the initiative. Welfare in participating countries could increase by 2.8% if all projects are implemented, but some countries have a negative welfare effect because of the high cost of the infrastructure.

Should We Worry About American Debt?: Part V
Jay H. Bryson, Randy Gerardes, and Michael Pugliese (WF) Jul 12, 2019
The outstanding debt of state and local governments (SLGs) has been flat in recent years with a very low debt-to-GDP ratio. However, unfunded pension liabilities are not included in conventional measures of SLG debt, and some SLGs are seriously unfunded.

For how long can today’s global economic expansion last?
Economist Jul 13, 2019
The world’s business cycles are lengthening, but not abolished.

This Could Be a Rare Time When It’s Smart to Fight the Fed
Conrad de Aenlle (NYT) Jul 13, 2019
Anticipation of interest-rate cuts sent stocks to new highs, but weak economic growth is raising fears that it’s too late to stave off a recession.

Will the Fed want more than ‘insurance cuts’ in rates?
Gavyn Davies (FT) Jul 14, 2019
The FOMC thinks low growth and low inflation may be more persistent than expected.

Silicon Valley Can Still Beat China
Margaret O'Mara (Bloomberg View) Jul 14, 2019
But to do so, the U.S. must recognize and reclaim the things that made the hotbed of technology thrive in the first place.

A Weaker Currency Isn’t Going to Help Australia
Satyajit Das (Bloomberg View) Jul 14, 2019
The conditions aren’t right for a competitive devaluation to boost exports and growth.

Not Everyone Gets a Piece of China's $2 Trillion Pie
Shuli Ren (Bloomberg View) Jul 14, 2019
Regulators are reining in smaller brokerages to limit risk in the financial system. But consolidation is easier said than done.

Taking Malthus seriously
Jakob Brøchner Madsen, Peter Robertson, and Longfeng Ye (VoxEU) Jul 14, 2019
The econometric evidence for the Malthusian trap in pre-industrial Europe has been weak. The column presents a new Malthusian model that, combined with new historical data for 17 countries, provides evidence of a much stronger Malthusian trap than the one found by previous research. This helps to explain the economic stagnation from the dark ages to the industrial revolution.

Lagarde set to inherit Draghi’s counsellors at ECB
Claire Jones (FT) Jul 15, 2019
Key figures behind the scenes will help incoming president to shape monetary policy.
The automation of production processes is an important topic on the policy agenda in high-wage countries, but evidence of the economic effects of automation at the firm level is limited. This column presents insights on automation from new survey data for Denmark. The findings reveal that variation in the adoption of automation technologies is high, the change in adoption over time is slow, and almost half of Danish manufacturing firms relied greatly on manual production processes in 2010. Increasing international competition from China is a driver for investments in automation.

China’s slowdown masks its scale and resilience
FT View Jul 16, 2019
The main structural frailties are domestic rather than external.

Investors must brace for extraordinary policy reactions
Karen Ward (FT) Jul 15, 2019
A co-ordinated fiscal and monetary response may be the best fit but with unpredictable consequences.

A New Tactic in Trump’s War on the Fed
Alan S. Blinder (WSJ) Jul 15, 2019
He can’t fire Powell, so he’s sending over dreadful nominees to make the chairman’s job harder.

Christine Lagarde Must Learn to Run an Economy That’s Slowing to a Crawl
Jack Ewing and Amie Tsang (NYT) Jul 15, 2019
Nominated as the next president of the European Central Bank, she has credentials that are seen as unusual for the job. Does unusual matter?

Tariffs on China Don’t Cover the Costs of Trump’s Trade War
Ana Swanson and Jim Tankersley (NYT) Jul 15, 2019
The president’s payments to farmers hurt by Chinese retaliation have so far exceeded the revenue from tariffs on imports of Chinese goods.

There’s a crisis unfolding in Asia. The U.S. is the only actor that can fix it.
Evan S. Medeiros (WP) Jul 15, 2019
The Trump administration needs to take action to stop a dispute between Japan and South Korea from unraveling further.

China GDP growth slowed to 6.2% in second quarter
Jeff Pao (AT) Jul 15, 2019
But June data showed bright spots.

China’s growth is the slowest in nearly three decades: get used to it
Economist Jul 15, 2019
The trade war with America hurts, but the government is wary of stimulus.

Why China Still Needs Hong Kong
Tianlei Huang (PIIE) Jul 15, 2019
Though Hong Kong’s economy has shrunk relative to the mainland’s, it remains vital to China as a whole.

Why Critics of a More Relaxed Attitude on Public Debt Are Wrong
Olivier Blanchard and Ángel Ubide (PIIE) Jul 15, 2019
Both of us have recently developed arguments for a more relaxed attitude toward public debt and deficits. Not surprisingly, several counterarguments have arisen, some of which we accept, some of which we don’t. This blog addresses two arguments that we reject.

Why China Can’t Get Its Economy Moving
Dinny McMahon (Bloomberg View) Jul 15, 2019
Weak growth numbers are a sign that the most efficient companies still aren’t getting the kind of credit they need to expand.

Africa Isn’t Being Re-Colonized
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Jul 15, 2019
There’s a big difference between military conquest and development with overseas capital and know-how.

How the Wealthiest 1% Can Be Good for Everybody
Ferdinando Giugliano (Bloomberg View) Jul 15, 2019
Inequality between the very richest and the rest correlates with greater innovation. But we mustn't let the top level become a closed shop.

One Way Banks Aren’t Ready for the Next Crisis
Mark Whitehouse (Bloomberg View) Jul 15, 2019
Loan-loss reserves are as low as they were in 2008.

An Education Crisis for All
Alice Albright (Project Syndicate) Jul 15, 2019
At a time when the world should be progressing rapidly toward the UN Sustainable Development Goal of ensuring “inclusive and equitable quality education” for all, it faces a deepening crisis instead. To address it, the G7 and developing countries alike must offer concrete commitments that match the scale of the challenge.

Tackling Inequality Is a Political Choice
Mahmoud Mohieldin and Carolina Sánchez-Páramo (Project Syndicate) Jul 15, 2019
Under the United Nations Sustainable Development Agenda for 2030, the world is committed to eliminating extreme poverty and reducing inequality between and within countries. Yet without a far greater effort by governments and multilateral institutions to address inequality in particular, neither objective will be met.

Why Is Inflation Low Globally?
Òscar Jordà, Chitra Marti, Fernanda Nechio, and Eric Tallman (FRBSF Econ Letter) Jul 15, 2019
A hot economy eventually boosts inflation. Such is the simple wisdom of the Phillips curve. Yet inflation across developed countries has been remarkably weak since the 2008 global financial crisis, even though unemployment rates are near historical lows. What is behind this recent disconnect between inflation and unemployment? Contrasting the experiences of developed and developing economies before and after the financial crisis shows that broader factors than monetary policy are at play. Inflation has declined globally, and this trend preceded the financial crisis.

Adoption of automation technologies
Lene Kromann and Anders Sørensen (VoxEU) Jul 15, 2019

The case for sane globalism remains strong
Martin Wolf (FT) Jul 16, 2019
Today’s most pressing policy challenges require multilateral co-operation.

Time for the ECB to admit its policy arsenal is exhausted
Rob Burnett (FT) Jul 16, 2019
Further rate cuts or bond-buying will benefit fixed-income investors but nobody else.

Earnings seasons set to shine light on squeezed margins
Robin Wigglesworth (FT) Jul 16, 2019
Rising labour costs are forecast to reduce profits in the coming quarter.

Does investing in emerging markets still make sense?
Jonathan Wheatley (FT) Jul 16, 2019
Apart from China and India, there is little sign that developing economies are converging with the developed world.

Why Midsize Cities Struggle to Catch Up to Superstar Cities
Eduardo Porter (NYT) Jul 16, 2019
For decades, smaller metropolitan areas closed the income gap with bigger, richer ones, but no longer. So places like Winston-Salem, N.C., are trying to lay a new foundation for prosperity.

Trump’s next trade war target: Vietnam
David Hutt (AT) Jul 16, 2019
Southeast Asian nation has dramatically whipsawed between US-China trade war winner to potential next big tariffed loser.

Be very afraid: Japan-Korea history war spirals toward trade war
Andrew Salmon (AT) Jul 16, 2019
Grudge match could have ruinous consequences for the electronics sector, the global economy and Washington’s alliances.

Where Brexit Goes, the Law Shall Follow — and That’s a Big Loss for London
Rebecca Christie (Brink) Jul 16, 2019
While the next phase of Brexit won’t emerge until October, the financial sector is already on the move. London, long the dominant hub for bankers and investors, will cede ground to a quartet of cities within the EU core. The likely risks and benefits to London and its peer cities in the European Union.

What do automation and artificial intelligence mean for Africa?
Gaurav Nayyar (Brookings) Jul 16, 2019
During the last four decades, manufacturers all over the world have outsourced production to countries with lower labor costs. American, European, and Japanese firms moved a lot of their production to developing Asia and Latin America, first helping countries like Malaysia and Chile, then others like China and Mexico, and then others like Vietnam and Bangladesh. Today, Chile and Malaysia are high-income economies, China and Mexico have become upper-middle, and Vietnam and Bangladesh have reached lower-middle-income. Africa’s turn was supposed to be next.

Even Now, Tariffs Are a Tiny Portion of US Government Revenue
Chad P. Bown and Douglas A. Irwin (PIIE) Jul 16, 2019
President Trump has praised tariffs as a “ great revenue producer for the US government .” But his tariffs on nearly $300 billion of US imports have so far increased the share of federal tax revenue derived from tariffs from 1 to only 2 percent.

Lagarde's IMF Legacy: A Stronger but Still Vulnerable Fund
Edwin M. Truman (PIIE) Jul 16, 2019
After eight years as managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Christine Lagarde will become the president of the European Central Bank on November 1. Her tenure at the Fund was not without mishap, but she served the institution and became a consummate diplomat, skillful communicator, and substantive innovator. Nevertheless, the IMF remains vulnerable to the centrifugal forces affecting the global economy and imperiling financial cooperation.

What the U.S.-China Trade War Is Really About
Tyler Cowen (Bloomberg View) Jul 16, 2019
The tariffs get all the attention, but the dispute is mainly over national security and geopolitical power.

Why Is India Trying to Kill Off Hedge Funds?
Andy Mukherjee (Bloomberg View) Jul 16, 2019
The Indian taxman is strangling a nascent industry that the country should be nurturing instead.

A Dangerous Debt Ruling in India
Andy Mukherjee (Bloomberg View) Jul 16, 2019
The insolvency tribunal’s decision on Essar could cause credit costs to surge, bank shares to drop and foreign investors to exit.

China Is the Biggest Protectionist Threat
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Jul 16, 2019
Even before Trump, the country was pursuing a go-it-alone economic strategy that had little use for trade.

One Tit-for-Tat Battle That China Shouldn't Fight
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg View) Jul 16, 2019
The Fed’s expected rate cuts make Beijing’s stance look conservative. The PBOC would be smart not to follow the U.S. down a more aggressive path.

How Britain’s Savviest Investors Are Beating Brexit
Matthew A Winkler (Bloomberg View) Jul 16, 2019
They steer clear of U.K. companies or pick the ones that can flourish amid chaos.

South Korea Foreshadows a Gray, Slow-Growth Future
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Jul 16, 2019
Birth rates have collapsed, pointing to rapid population aging and slowing productivity.

Congress Targets the Wrong Tech Monopolies
Dan Wang (Bloomberg View) Jul 16, 2019
Industrial firms are the real antitrust problem. The solution? Welcome rather than shun Chinese competition.

Just Say No to the New Nafta
Jeffrey Schott (Bloomberg View) Jul 16, 2019
Trump’s proposed United States-Mexico-Canada agreement would restrict trade and investment. Democrats should demand better.

Only a Half-Point Rate Cut From the Fed Will Do
Jim Bianco (Bloomberg View) Jul 16, 2019
Anything less would fail to fix the imbalances in the global bond market, continuing to weigh on economic sentiment.

The Great Crypto Heist
Nouriel Roubini (Project Syndicate) Jul 16, 2019
Cryptocurrencies have given rise to an entire new criminal industry, comprising unregulated offshore exchanges, paid propagandists, and an army of scammers looking to fleece retail investors. Yet, despite the overwhelming evidence of rampant fraud and abuse, financial regulators and law-enforcement agencies remain asleep at the wheel.

The Exploitation Time Bomb
Jayati Ghosh (Project Syndicate) Jul 16, 2019
Worsening economic inequality in recent years is largely the result of policy choices that reflect the political influence and lobbying power of the rich. There is now a self-reinforcing pattern of high profits, low investment, and rising inequality – posing a threat not only to economic growth, but also to democracy.

Do apprenticeships work?
Imran Rasul (VoxDev) Jul 16, 2019
Evidence from Uganda suggests that vocational training is more effective in tackling youth unemployment than apprenticeships

China’s corporate defaults at record high – at last!
Marlene Amstad and Zhiguo He (VoxEU) Jul 16, 2019
China’s corporate bond ratings are sharply skewed upward, which is partly explained by the large amounts of bonds by issuers who are mostly linked to the government. This column proposes credit spreads as an alternative, market-based measure of credit risk. It also argues that the main reason for the high credit ratings and low dispersion of credit spreads is the very short and limited history of defaults in China. The post-2014 sharp rise in corporate bond defaults is therefore essential for further market development, particularly because Chinese defaults remain low relative to global standards.

The paradox of global thrift
Luca Fornaro and Federica Romei (VoxEU) Jul 16, 2019
Fiscal and current account surpluses make sense from a national perspective. Prudential fiscal and financial policies lead to an increase in national savings and current account surpluses of booming countries. This column uses a model of the global economy to argue, however, that the world may become stuck in a global liquidity trap as a result. This paradox of global thrift may lead to a fall in global output and welfare.

Japan’s Trade War Is as Futile as Trump’s
S. Nathan Park (FP) Jul 16, 2019
Japan and South Korea have long had diplomatic disagreements. But Tokyo’s recent trade measures have the potential to hurt both sides—mirroring U.S. President Donald Trump’s own trade war.

Bretton Woods twins need to keep adapting
FT View Jul 17, 2019
The IMF and World Bank have reached 75 by reinventing themselves.

Markets need to wake up to dollar intervention risk
Katie Martin (FT) Jul 17, 2019
Trade wars are now conducted by presidential tweet, so why not currency wars?

Womenomics: cracks are beginning to show in Japan’s glass ceiling
Gillian Tett (FT) Jul 17, 2019
The days of the country’s famous ‘salarymen’ aren’t quite numbered but women are making gradual progress.

Forget the Gold Standard and Make the Dollar Stable Again
John H. Cochrane (WSJ) Jul 17, 2019
Precious metals no longer make sense as a store of value. Instead, peg money to goods and services.

Western intellectuals freak over 'Frankenstein' China
Pepe Escobar (AT) Jul 17, 2019
While academics in Beijing plot decoupling business with the US and teaming up with EU and ASEAN.

As trade war counts down, Seoul offers olive branch to Tokyo
Andrew Salmon (AT) Jul 17, 2019
Despite national fury, official talks down WTO complaint and offers possible exit ramp as US gears up for possible intervention.

Rebalancing the Global Economy: Some Progress but Challenges Ahead
Gita Gopinath (IMF) Jul 17, 2019
Following the global financial crisis, overall current account surpluses and deficits fell sharply from about 6 percent of global GDP in 2007 to about 3.5 percent in 2013. Since then, as shown in our new External Sector Report, global current account imbalances have declined only slightly to 3 percent of world GDP in 2018, while rotating toward advanced economies and away from emerging economies, including China whose current account is now broadly in line with fundamentals.

Should Developing Countries Borrow Internationally to Finance Social Sector Development?
Masood Ahmed (CGD) Jul 17, 2019
From time to time I come across development practitioners who believe that it’s a bad idea for poor countries to borrow money, particularly non-concessional loans, to finance health or education projects.

Illiquidity Threatens an Early Winter for Funds
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Jul 17, 2019
For regulators, worrying about vanishing liquidity is one thing; doing something about it is quite another.

Trump's Tariff Deal Comes Down to a Coin Flip
Lionel Laurent (Bloomberg View) Jul 17, 2019
A German minister puts the chances of an EU-U.S. agreement at 50%. Others are even more optimistic, though the scope of a deal would be limited.

Maybe Inequality Isn’t What’s Making People Mad
Michael R Strain (Bloomberg View) Jul 17, 2019
People perceive a widening rich-poor gap when wages are stagnant, not when high and low incomes actually diverge.

Is China the World’s Loan Shark?
Mihir Sharma (Bloomberg View) Jul 17, 2019
Developing countries owe Beijing a lot more money than is commonly realized. This is how empires start.

India's Bankruptcies Get a Dose of Common Sense
Andy Mukherjee (Bloomberg View) Jul 17, 2019
The government’s proposed changes to the 2016 insolvency law are bold, practical and badly needed.

One of the World’s Most Stubborn Central Banks Gives In
Shuli Ren (Bloomberg View) Jul 17, 2019
South Korea’s surprise rate cut is welcome, but the economy needs deeper changes to crawl out of this slump.

Asia’s Scary Movie
Richard N. Haass (Project Syndicate) Jul 17, 2019
A snapshot of Asia would show a region at peace, with stable societies, growing economies, and robust alliances. But, if we view history as a moving picture, we may well come to look back on this moment as the time in which the most economically successful part of the world began to come apart.

China's Tech Sector Is in Trouble
Viola Rothschild and Benjamin Della Rocca (Diplomat) Jul 17, 2019
Chinese tech workers are stuck in the cold as relations with the US freeze.

Underestimated Role of Banks in China’s Bond Market
Marlene Amstad and Zhiguo He (VoxDev) Jul 17, 2019
The role of banks in the Chinese bond market, the third largest in the world, is greatly underestimated when proxied only through the share of issuance. For the future growth and deepening of the Chinese bond market it will be important to lower reliance on banks in order for the bond market to play its intended role as a spare tire of the financial system.

Monetary policy and bank equity values in a time of low and negative interest rates
Miguel Ampudia and Skander Van den Heuvel (VoxEU) Jul 17, 2019
The effects of interest rate surprises on banks are different when nominal interest rates are very low. This column reveals how, in ‘normal’ times, policy rate announcements that are below market expectations tend to boost banks’ stock prices on average. When interest rates are very low, however, there is a reversal of this effect, with negative rate surprises reducing banks’ stock prices. This negative impact is larger for banks whose funding relies more on retail deposits than on other sources of funding.

Europe Is Back
Max Bergmann (FP) Jul 17, 2019
After decades of being ignored by the United States, the European Union is poised to become a major power on the world stage. Washington should take note.

The Abyss Is Opening Under China-U.S. Relations
Scott Moore (FP) Jul 17, 2019
Washington and Beijing have officially agreed to a truce in their trade war—but a far greater conflict looms if cooler heads don’t prevail on both sides.

The strength of the dollar is not born in the USA
Bhanu Baweja (FT) Jul 18, 2019
The Trump administration may try to force the dollar down, but probably without success.

Global trade was slowing before the tariff war started
Gillian Tett (FT) Jul 18, 2019
Since the crisis, financing has become much more costly.

Why sentiment wields an outsized influence in China’s markets
Liu Jun (FT) Jul 18, 2019
Financial system must be restructured to reduce the real economy’s overdependence on bank lending.

A trade dispute between Japan and South Korea has Trumpian echoes
Economist Jul 18, 2019
The global tech industry could be hostage to Asian history.

Cryptocurrency to the Rescue
WSJ Jul 18, 2019
Facebook’s Libra could help the poor who lost credit after Dodd-Frank.

If they won’t pass his trade deal, Trump should make Democrats own NAFTA
Marc Thiessen (WP) Jul 18, 2019
Rob Portman has great advice for the president.

Croatia’s path into the banking union
Alexander Lehmann (Bruegel) Jul 18, 2019
Croatia seems a suitable candidate for euro area accession: there is a tight peg to the euro, high public debt is coming down, and the banking sector is already dominated by euro area banks. But the Eurogroup has rightly targeted reforms of the state’s role in the economy as a precondition for participation in ERM II and the banking union. None of the announced reform plans are new or easily concluded within the timeframe that has now been agreed.

Sleepwalking toward a currency war?
Desmond Lachman (AEI/InsideSources) Jul 18, 2019
Nobody can know with any degree of certainty whether we are headed soon to a destructive world currency war in which countries compete with to weaken their exchange rates to gain an unfair competitive advantage.

Emerging-Market Rate Cuts Look Like Ripples, Not Waves
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg View) Jul 18, 2019
South Korea and Indonesia lagged their peers in lowering interest rates. Their concerns about stability are understandable.

India’s Unicorns Are More Like Workhorses
Tim Culpan (Bloomberg View) Jul 18, 2019
Forget robots and AI. The latest wave of startups is coming from consumer-focused local businesses and enterprise software.

Management Consultants Might Be the Best Foreign Aid
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Jul 18, 2019
Emerging-market companies that get help from advisers in developed nations tend to reap big gains.

The Fed Has No Interest in Regulating Facebook’s Libra
Aaron Brown (Bloomberg View) Jul 18, 2019
Jerome Powell’s “serious concerns” about privacy, money laundering, consumer protection and financial stability are meaningless.

No Economic Peace for Palestinians
Shlomo Ben-Ami (Project Syndicate) Jul 18, 2019
For the Palestinians, accepting an economic deal that is not an annex to a convincing political solution would be tantamount to betraying Palestinian refugees – and, indeed, the dream of statehood – for a fistful of dollars. But that does not mean that they should reject the Trump administration's "Peace to Prosperity" plan outright.

What’s Next for Europe’s Capital Markets?
Jonathan Faull and Simon Gleeson (Project Syndicate) Jul 18, 2019
Without the UK, even integrated EU capital markets would be too small to meet the funding needs of European businesses. That is why global engagement, even at the cost of losing regulatory control, is critical.

How Africa Measures Up on Governance
Marie Laberge (Project Syndicate) Jul 18, 2019
Data on governance, like any other official statistics, are a public good and should be accessible to all. Otherwise, the true scale of violence, exclusion, and discrimination will remain hidden, and the potential of carefully collected information to improve life for ordinary citizens will not be fully realized.

The IMF Takeover of Pakistan
Kunwar Khuldune Shahid (Diplomat) Jul 18, 2019
Many Pakistanis see the terms of the $6 billion bailout package as a hostile takeover of their economy and government.

How to Confront an Advancing Threat From China
Nikki Haley (FA) Jul 18, 2019
Getting tough on trade is just the first step.

Universal Basic Income
John Lanchester (LRB) Jul 18, 2019
Will we succumb to what’s now being called ‘climate apartheid’, with the rich world cutting itself off from the poor and entrenching itself behind barriers and walls, and letting the poor world die? On current form, you would have to say that is not an unlikely version of future events. If we are to avoid going down that route, we will need to have some different, better ideas; we will need to have some ideas about shared responsibility, shared security and shared prosperity. The left will need a new toolkit. It will need to have done its intellectual prep. That, more than anything, is what this new wave of work on UBI represents.

Europe risks geopolitical irrelevance
Carl Bildt (FT) Jul 19, 2019
An unpredictable US, rising China and revanchist Russia pose serious strategic challenges.

G7 crypto opposition masks warmer stance for wholesale markets
Philip Stafford (FT) Jul 19, 2019
Regulatory fears over digital assets are narrow, focusing on consumer protection.

The Economy Looks Solid, but the Fed Plans to Cut Rates Anyway. Here’s Why.
Neil Irwin (NYT) Jul 19, 2019
An acknowledgment that some old rules of thumb no longer apply.

Mitsotakis victory to shore up EU southeast flank
Uwe Parpart (AT) Jul 19, 2019
Greece's new center-right administration could turn a European basket case into a point of strength

China’s New Debt Sustainability Framework Is Largely Borrowed from the World Bank and IMF. Here’s Why That Could Be a Problem.
Scott Morris and Mark Plant (CGD) Jul 19, 2019
The announced DSF seems to be China’s answer to the problem. But is it up to the task?

Why the Fed Should Not Deliver a Big Rate Cut
Mohamed Aly El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Jul 19, 2019
Caving to pressure could help markets but would risk harming the U.S. economy.

The Day India’s Banks Died
Mihir Sharma (Bloomberg View) Jul 19, 2019
They shouldn’t have been nationalized 50 years ago. So why is today’s government perpetuating the problem?

Recession Forecasts Are So Bad, They're Good
Stephen Mihm (Bloomberg View) Jul 19, 2019
Economists, notoriously terrible at predicting downturns, may be inadvertently providing a useful service.

Are Central Banks Losing Their Big Bet?
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Project Syndicate) Jul 19, 2019
Following the 2008 global financial crisis, central banks bet that greater activism on the part of other policymakers would be their salvation, helping them to normalize their operations. But that activism never came, and central bankers are now facing a lose-lose proposition.

The Case for a Fiscal Fed
Benjamin J. Cohen (Project Syndicate) Jul 19, 2019
In the years since the 2008 global financial crisis, central banks have been the "only game in town," maintaining ultra-low interest rates in the absence of counter-cyclical fiscal policies. But with another global downturn looming, a new approach to macroeconomic management is needed.

Are Moonshots Still Possible?
Martin Rees (Project Syndicate) Jul 19, 2019
A half-century after the first Moon landing, America’s triumph in the Space Race still stands out as an unparalleled feat of perseverance and ingenuity. Had advances in human space travel continued apace, there would almost certainly be human footprints on Mars, too.

A Reform Opportunity for the IMF
José Antonio Ocampo (Project Syndicate) Jul 19, 2019
The 75th anniversary of the Bretton Woods agreement and the departure of Christine Lagarde from the helm of the International Monetary Fund represent a golden opportunity to put the institution on a path toward a more effective and inclusive future. What should her successor's priorities be?

What Happens in Sudan Doesn’t Stay in Sudan
Michael Woldemariam and Alden Young (FA) Jul 19, 2019
Will Khartoum become the center of a new African order or an appendage of the Gulf?

Slow Growth, Low Inflation: What's the ECB to Do?
Jen Licis and Erik Nelson (WF) Jul 19, 2019
ECB policy uncertainty has risen substantially as the central bank mulls easing policy and as markets contemplate how the appointment of Christine Lagarde to replace ECB President Draghi will affect policy.

Scotland leads the charge against a no-deal Brexit
Joanna Cherry (FT) Jul 20, 2019
Support for independence grows as the threat of crashing out of the EU looms.

Profits are down in America Inc
Economist Jul 20, 2019
Is it time to worry?

Why Central Banks Need to Step Up on Global Warming
Adam Tooze (FP) Jul 20, 2019
A decade after the world bailed out finance, it’s time for finance to bail out the world. Central banks need to step up to the plate on global warming.

Wages are a poor guide for monetary policy
Megan Greene (FT) Jul 21, 2019
Average hourly earnings data does not capture many of the benefits that workers value.

Do not treat the IMF as an EU consolation prize
Wolfgang Münchau (FT) Jul 21, 2019
The world needs a strong replacement for Lagarde.

Investing in the age of deglobalisation
Rana Foroohar (FT) Jul 21, 2019
The wisdom of relying on the equity of US multinationals is now suspect.

The Pound Is a Brexit Barometer. It’s Not Looking Great Right Now.
Amie Tsang (NYT) Jul 21, 2019
Britain’s currency has slumped as uncertainty grows over how and when the U.K. will leave the European Union.

Yes, dictators are ascendant. But people all over the world are fighting back.
Jackson Diehl (WP) Jul 21, 2019
Democracy can still be saved.

Is Vietnam swimming naked?
David Dapice (EAF) Jul 21, 2019
Will Vietnam use this opportunity to undertake much needed reform?

Abe’s Trade War With South Korea Is Hopeless
Bloomberg View Jul 21, 2019
Japan’s leader should never have introduced commercial weapons into a political dispute. Now he needs to compromise.

ECB can revive European growth by investing in equities
Rick Rieder (FT) Jul 22, 2019
Focusing on the technology sector would reap benefits for companies and workers.

Multi-firm audits can break up Big Four oligopoly
Joseph Smith (FT) Jul 22, 2019
There is ample evidence that change is long overdue.

Why investing in emerging markets does make sense
Michael Power (FT) Jul 22, 2019
It is time for an overhaul of EM equity and bond indices.

China’s investment in Africa: What the data really says, and the implications for Europe
Alicia García-Herrero and Jianwei Xu (Bruegel) Jul 22, 2019
China has clearly signalled to Europe that it does not shy away from involvement in Africa, historically Europe’s area of influence. But the nature of China’s direct investment flows to the continent will have to change if they are to prove sustainable.

Why Mario Draghi Should Cut Rates Sooner
Ferdinando Giugliano (Bloomberg View) Jul 22, 2019
A rate cut in July could be the best way for the ECB president to consolidate his legacy.

Get Ready for More Chinese Defaults
Shuli Ren (Bloomberg View) Jul 22, 2019
Beijing has started talking about deleveraging again. That could disrupt an eerie calm in the market.

Let’s Choose the Best Person to Lead the IMF
Ashoka Mody (Bloomberg View) Jul 22, 2019
It might not be a European.

The Fed Has Reached a Turning Point
Narayana Kocherlakota (Bloomberg View) Jul 22, 2019
Its interest-rate decision next week may signal a new direction. People need to be aware of the risks.

No Oil? Then Don’t Use Debt to Grow
Amr Ismail Ahmed Adly (Bloomberg View) Jul 22, 2019
Egypt, Morocco, Jordan and Tunisia are struggling to attract foreign investment and boost exports.

How Much Government Is Good for Growth?
Noah Smith and Michael R Strain (Bloomberg View) Jul 22, 2019
Size matters, but so does the relationship between the public sector and private industry.

The US Needs to Talk About China
Minxin Pei (Project Syndicate) Jul 22, 2019
In a democracy, a government cannot pursue a long-term struggle with a powerful geopolitical adversary without sustained political support from an informed public. That is why the US urgently needs to launch a credible public debate on US President Donald Trump's confrontational China policy.

How Can Developing Countries Pay for the SDGs?
Tania Masi, Roberto Ricciuti, Antonio Savoia, and Kunal Sen (Project Syndicate) Jul 22, 2019
With official development assistance under strain, achieving the Sustainable Development Goals will require developing countries to rely increasingly on their own resources. To that end, they should implement strong institutional constraints on executive authority.

Should We Worry About American Debt?: Part VI
Jay H. Bryson (WF) Jul 22, 2019
Leverage in the financial sector increased significantly in the years leading up to the financial crisis, with a large increase in government-sponsered enterprise related debt. Today, debt in the financial sector has decreased by almost $2 trillion from its peak 10 years ago.

The ECB should be ready to use its full crisis toolkit
FT View Jul 23, 2019
Draghi should implement a package of measures in his final months.

The dangers of oil companies that are ‘too big to fail’
Patrick Heller (FT) Jul 23, 2019
Raising accountability today is a must for governments hoping to avoid bailouts tomorrow.

Bond investors beware: rising tides do not lift all boats
Joe Rennison (FT) Jul 23, 2019
The Fed has debt market optimism fizzing but some companies will still struggle.

China locked into investment-led growth by GDP targets
Lucy Hornby (FT) Jul 23, 2019
Beijing’s goal-setting skews results and encourages pointless projects, say analysts.

The painful path to curing Japan of its cash addiction
Leo Lewis (FT) Jul 23, 2019
A switch to electronic payments could save up to $15bn a year, but mistrust is hindering change.

Boris for Brexit
WSJ Jul 23, 2019
The new British Prime Minister has one mandate above all.

China is winning the ideological battle with the U.S.
Michael McFaul (WP) Jul 24, 2019
America's model of liberal democracy is losing the argument.

‘Hidden debts’ reveal risks of China’s lending spree
Gordon Watts (AT) Jul 23, 2019
Dangers of BRI project and other foreign funding programs are highlighted in a comprehensive report.

Sluggish Global Growth Calls for Supportive Policies
Gita Gopinath (IMF) Jul 23, 2019
Global growth is sluggish and precarious, but it does not have to be this way because some of this is self-inflicted.

The future is bright for SMEs
Brian Caplen (Banker) Jul 23, 2019
Supporting SMEs is a mantra of governments and banks alike. But any new policies will need to take account of changes in the international economy.

Lagarde’s Leadership Should Not Be Underrated
Frank Vogl (Globalist) Jul 23, 2019
The scope of central banking has expanded significantly in recent years. The former IMF boss is well prepared for those challenges.

6 Challenges for the European Central Bank
Mohamed Aly El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Jul 23, 2019
The Federal Reserve doesn’t exactly have it easy, but conditions in Europe are putting added pressure on the Governing Council ahead of this week’s meeting.

The Fed Was Waiting on Data. It Found a New Mind-Set Instead.
Conor Sen (Bloomberg View) Jul 23, 2019
The central bank is expected to give politicians the rate cut they want, but not because they want it.

The Lesson of Bretton Woods
Tyler Cowen (Bloomberg View) Jul 23, 2019
Every era’s monetary and financial institutions are unimaginable until they’re real.

The Choice Isn’t Between Capitalism or Socialism
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Jul 23, 2019
All countries practice a mix of both, and the U.S. isn’t the free-market leader some might think.

Want to Boost U.S. Productivity? Tackle Inequality
Anna Stansbury (Bloomberg View) Jul 23, 2019
If women and minorities could realize their potential, everyone would be better off.

The Secret to the Trump Economy? More Government Spending
Justin Fox (Bloomberg View) Jul 23, 2019
Economic growth has accelerated. Maybe it’s because Republicans have stopped caring about the deficit.

The U.S. Economy Is Great and the Fed Doesn't Care
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg View) Jul 23, 2019
The central bank is likely to deliver a rate cut at its July meeting, despite a solid domestic economy. The global outlook has become a bigger factor.

Every President Since Reagan Was Wrong About China's Destiny
Henry Brands (Bloomberg View) Jul 23, 2019
For decades U.S. politicians and analysts told us economic growth in China would spur liberalism. Denying that fact could lead to more big mistakes.

Can Europe Become a Global Player?
Mark Leonard (Project Syndicate) Jul 23, 2019
As the nominee to serve as the EU's next High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Spanish Foreign Minister Josep Borrell will have an opportunity to update Europe's approach to foreign policy. Chief among the challenges facing the bloc is to reassert its own sovereignty in an age of great-power politics.

Is Politics Getting to the Fed?
Robert J. Barro (Project Syndicate) Jul 23, 2019
In the early 1980s, the chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Paul Volcker, was able to choke off runaway inflation because he was afforded the autonomy necessary to implement steep interest-rate hikes. Today, the Fed is clearly under unprecedented political pressure, and it is starting to show.

Trade wars may ‘bloc up’ world trade
David Jacks and Dennis Novy (VoxEU) Jul 23, 2019
Against the backdrop of new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration and retaliation from targeted countries, notably China, the trade wars of the 1930s have received renewed attention. This column argues that they mainly served to intensify a pre-existing trend towards the formation of trade blocs. The trade wars of the present day may therefore serve a similar purpose as those in the 1930s, that is, the intensification of China- and US-centric trade blocs.

Modi’s Success in India’s Elections: Five Factors
Gilles Verniers (YaleGlobal) Jul 23, 2019
The prime minister delivered a decisive victory despite economic troubles.

Parade Forecast: Rain
Tim Quinlan and Sarah House (WF) Jul 23, 2019
When Q2 GDP prints on Friday, we expect to see the first sub-2% growth rate in two years. A key swing factor is that private inventories will likely build at a slower pace and pull GDP growth lower.

UK economy needs more than a dose of optimism
FT View Jul 24, 2019
Boris Johnson’s sunny vision remains hostage to the politics of Brexit.

China is using US trade war to defeat liberal thinkers
Shirley Yu (FT) Jul 24, 2019
Xi Jinping frames conflict as a fight against national humiliation to consolidate his power.

The ECB must make negative rate policy effective
Reza Moghadam (FT) Jul 24, 2019
With economic indicators sagging, inaction risks turning the central bank into a paper tiger.

End of the phoney war beckons for sterling
Katie Martin (FT) Jul 24, 2019
Crunch time has arrived with real and present danger of Johnson’s no-deal Brexit.

Markets need to heed the lessons from the 1970s
John Plender (FT) Jul 24, 2019
Extremely low real bond yields suggest a monetary system that has lost credibility.

India is failing to reap the benefits of China-US trade war
Henny Sender (FT) Jul 24, 2019
Uncompetitiveness, slowing growth and shortage of capital weigh on growth aspirations.

ECB easing lines up Swedish krona for more pain
Philip Georgiadis (FT) Jul 24, 2019
Looser monetary policy by central banks will thwart Riksbank ability to boost currency.

Technology: the superpower contest to set industry standards
Alan Beattie (FT) Jul 24, 2019
There is a first-mover advantage for whoever writes the new rules for the digital economy.

End of the phoney war beckons for sterling
Katie Martin (FT) Jul 24, 2019
Crunch time has arrived with real and present danger of Johnson’s no-deal Brexit.

Trade Wars Are Sending Jobs Elsewhere
Matthew J. Slaughter (WSJ) Jul 24, 2019
Foreign investors are building fewer factories in the U.S.

China is winning the ideological battle with the U.S.
Michael McFaul (WP) Jul 24, 2019
America's model of liberal democracy is losing the argument.

Trade war winners and losers diverge in SE Asia
SImon Roughneen (AT) Jul 24, 2019
Cambodia, Vietnam and Malaysia are reaping gains while Singapore and Thailand are taking hits. But that could all change with Trump's next tweet.

The Steel Tariffs Have Failed
Andrew Moran (Mises Wire) Jul 24, 2019
As prices have risen, domestic demand for steel has fallen, meaning steel producers are laying off workers as consumers pay more.

Egypt: A Path Forward for Economic Prosperity
IMF Jul 24, 2019
Egypt’s economic reforms have helped strengthen growth, reduce unemployment, increase foreign exchange reserves, and put public debt on a downward path. The reforms, supported by a US$ 12 billion EFF arrangement from the IMF, are aimed at achieving more sustainable, inclusive, and private-sector-led growth that will improve the living standards of all Egyptians. In an interview with Subir Lall, head of the IMF team for Egypt, we discuss the history, evolution, and achievement of the program as it comes to an end.

The New Fiscal Consensus Is an Accident Waiting to Happen
Bloomberg View Jul 24, 2019
Avoiding a phony debt-ceiling crisis is good. Spending without restraint is not.

Ancient Greece’s Red Flags for Modern China
John Authers (Bloomberg View) Jul 24, 2019
The current conflict between the U.S. and China is not unlike when Athens challenged Sparta’s dominance. Also, a book club update and Boris Johnson.

Trump Hasn’t Killed Huawei
Tim Culpan (Bloomberg View) Jul 24, 2019
The Chinese company could be on track for 30% sales growth in the first half. It has the support of a nation, and a 5G capex cycle to build for.

Europe Should Cut Boris Johnson a New Brexit Deal
Clive Crook (Bloomberg View) Jul 24, 2019
A little flexibility would best serve the EU’s interests.

Immigrants Should Do More Than Just Send Money Home
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Jul 24, 2019
Remittances are fine, but investment in their home countries would produce more growth.

Deutsche Bank Falls Behind the Curve, Literally
Elisa Martinuzzi (Bloomberg View) Jul 24, 2019
An overly optimistic call on interest rates means Germany's biggest lender will need help from the ECB if it is to meet its goals.

Why U.S. Factories Won’t Leave Asia
Michael Schuman (Bloomberg View) Jul 24, 2019
There are still too many incentives to produce abroad for companies to shut down their global supply chains.

Boris’s Brexit
Anatole Kaletsky (Project Syndicate) Jul 24, 2019
Political betting markets now put the chance of a no-deal Brexit at roughly one-third. But, regardless of the reckless promises to Conservative Europhobes that made Boris Johnson prime minister, an orderly, negotiated Brexit will be the favored option for a political libertine whose only consistent principle has been inconsistency.

Productivity and competitiveness in the euro area: A view from France
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Olivier Blanchard, Laurence Boone, Gilbert Cette, Chiara Criscuolo, Anne Epaulard, Sébastien Jean, Margaret Kyle, Philippe Martin, Xavier Ragot, Alexandra Roulet, and David Thesmar (VoxEU) Jul 24, 2019
In September 2016, the European Council invited all euro area members to set up a National Productivity Board to focus on productivity and competitiveness. This column summarises the main findings of the first report of the Conseil National de Productivité, which analyses the causes of the French productivity slowdown that are common to other OECD countries and those that are specific to France. It also proposes a definition of competitiveness that should be useful for euro area macroeconomic policy debates and explains why current account imbalances in the euro area are both a sign of deficient adjustment mechanisms and a cause of concern.

Johnson’s Brexit gamble puts the country at risk
FT View Jul 25, 2019
New UK prime minister is turning the Tories into the no-deal party.

Emerging markets must invest in growth capacity
FT View Jul 25, 2019
Weak productivity and slow pace of reforms are constraining output.

Forecasters flummoxed by oil price drivers
David Sheppard (FT) Jul 25, 2019
Delicate balance of positive and negative factors leaves crude without direction.

Investors can think long-term but managers are a harder case
Wei Jiang (FT) Jul 25, 2019
Research shows executives are tempted take short-cuts to hit quarterly numbers.

The business case against Bretton Woods
Gillian Tett (FT) Jul 25, 2019
International financial institutions designed 75 years ago are no longer fit for purpose.

Trump’s Secret Foreign Aid Program
Paul Krugman (NYT) Jul 25, 2019
He’s giving away billions to overseas investors.

Draghi’s Last Stimulus
WSJ Jul 25, 2019
The European Central Bank chief eases the path for his successor.

America can’t afford to be complacent when it comes to the economy
WP Jul 25, 2019
A new report shows how Trump’s policies are leading to a global trade slowdown.

Boris Johnson will accelerate the decline of Europe
Fareed Zakaria (WP) Jul 25, 2019
We need Europe to preserve world order. Britain is pushing it in the wrong direction.

What Boris Johnson's rise means for Asia
David Hutt (AT) Jul 25, 2019
New British PM is expected to promote trade deals, float gunboats and embrace China towards his vision of a revived 'global Britain' in Asia.

Six Charts on Boosting Growth in Brazil
IMF Jul 25, 2019
Brazil’s economic recovery after the 2015-2016 recession remains sluggish. Real per capita growth has fallen by 8 percent since the beginning of the recession in 2014, and poverty and inequality are on the rise. While the unemployment rate did fall this year, it is still high compared to pre-crisis levels.

Automation, Labor Market Disruption, and Trade Policy
Marcus Noland and Soyoung Han (PIIE) Jul 25, 2019
The upset election victory of Donald Trump in 2016 resulted from the unsettling social and economic changes in American society, not least the anxiety over job losses caused by technology and international trade competition. But other factors such as race, education, age, and rising diversity among voters also contributed to a shift by some white voters toward Trump, especially in pivotal industrial states.

Turkey's Central Bank Test Leaves Lira in Limbo
Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg View) Jul 25, 2019
Erdogan’s new central bank governor has a chance to show some independence. The currency’s future depends on it.

Why These Chipmakers Need Their Own OPEC
Tim Culpan (Bloomberg View) Jul 25, 2019
DRAM is just as much a commodity as oil. But manufacturers can only dream about the benefits of negotiating supply together.

The Art of the No-Deal Brexit, Boris Edition
Lionel Laurent (Bloomberg View) Jul 25, 2019
Johnson's threats give the EU little reason to accommodate a renegotiation. The end result is fraught with political risk.

When It Comes to Debt, Size Doesn’t Matter Anymore
Satyajit Das (Bloomberg View) Jul 25, 2019
But the fact that investors are replacing banks as the most important providers risks a severe correction in the future.

Mario Draghi Brings Europe No Sunshine
Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg View) Jul 25, 2019
The economy needs stimulus, right here, right now. Instead we got a discussion about a discussion.

Expanding America’s Expansion
Laura Tyson and Lenny Mendonca (Project Syndicate) Jul 25, 2019
Having undergone its longest expansion on record, the US economy appears to be thriving. But behind the headline numbers is a more complicated story: wages are growing, but not as fast as they should be; and inequalities based on place, race, gender, and other factors remain unacceptably high.

Central Banks Should Forget About 2% Inflation
Jeffrey Frankel (Project Syndicate) Jul 25, 2019
Despite years of monetary stimulus, inflation in the United States, Japan, and the eurozone continues to undershoot central banks’ 2% target. Rather than doubling down on their oft-missed goal, however, perhaps the Fed and other central banks should quietly stop pursuing it aggressively.

Which Way Now for the EU?
Kemal Dervis (Project Syndicate) Jul 25, 2019
Calls for Europe to strengthen its “strategic sovereignty” often imply that a more integrated European Union should become the third pillar of a “G3” world alongside the United States and China. But if the EU tries to become a pure power player in a transactional game of realpolitik, Europe’s soft power will weaken.

Double-counting of investment
Robert Barro (VoxEU) Jul 25, 2019
GDP counts investment twice – when it occurs and when rental income results. This column proposes an amendment to the national accounting system that only includes investment once. This would ensure that national income accounts do not overstate the resources available for consumption. It also has major implications for the estimation of the capital share in income.

How the state runs business in China
Richard McGregor (Guardian) Jul 25, 2019
Much of modern China’s epic growth was driven by private enterprise – but under Xi Jinping, the Communist party has returned to being the ultimate authority in business as well as politics.

ECB: Right Back Where We Started From
Erik Nelson and Nick Bennenbroek (WF) Jul 25, 2019
The ECB held policy steady today but sent strong signals on easing measures likely to come in September. An ECB rate cut in September is all but certain now-the only question is how large-and we now expect the ECB to restart its QE program.

Should We Worry About American Debt?: Part VII
Jay H. Bryson (WF) Jul 25, 2019
In our seventh and final report in a series on American debt, we summarize our findings. In short, we believe that excessive angst about American debt today is not really warranted because the economy is less levered today than it was a decade ago.

The global economic momentum is slowing
FT View Jul 26, 2019
Central banks can only do so much without threats to trade being lifted.

ECB purchases of equity would be a dangerous step
Merryn Somerset Webb (FT) Jul 26, 2019
BlackRock proposal is anti-free markets and based on naked self-interest.

Frustrated central bankers cast around for fresh thinking
Michael Mackenzie (FT) Jul 26, 2019
Policymakers try to influence inflation but the only obvious effect is on asset prices.

The Trade-War Growth Slowdown
WSJ Jul 26, 2019
The damage from tariff uncertainty is all over second-quarter GDP.

A reflection on the Mercosur agreement
Alicia García-Herrero (Bruegel) Jul 26, 2019
The EU accepts the deal because it is worried about the catastrophic scenario of a world without the WTO.

European champion-ships: industrial champions and competition policy
Mathew Heim and Catarina Midoes (Bruegel) Jul 26, 2019
This blog post investigates the debate on whether European competition rules should foster European industrial champions, or allow national champions to grow to a European scale. It explores the criteria that one would intuitively ascribe to industrial champions, illustrating the difficulties in defining either ‘European’ or ‘Champion’. It then conducts a brief look into whether EU Merger decisions have impeded the formation of ‘European Champions’.

Africa’s Cities Are About to Boom – and Maybe Explode
Judd Devermont and Todd Moss (Bloomberg View) Jul 25, 2019
The West seems unaware that Africa’s future is urban.

GDP Report Gives the Fed Two Problems
Conor Sen (Bloomberg View) Jul 26, 2019
Fewer rate cuts may be warranted, and if so, markets will need to be let down delicately.

Trump’s Economy Is in Dangerous Territory
Karl W Smith (Bloomberg View) Jul 26, 2019
New numbers suggest that the president’s trade war is weighing down growth.

Lagarde’s ECB Checklist
Stefan Gerlach (Project Syndicate) Jul 26, 2019
After years in which the European Council acted as if there were no qualified women to lead the European Central Bank, it has finally abandoned that ludicrous excuse and appointed Christine Lagarde to the position. Lagarde is an eminently qualified and promising president-designate; but to have a successful tenure, she will need to head off her critics' concerns.

The Wrong Way to Educate Girls
Manos Antoninis (Project Syndicate) Jul 26, 2019
Getting girls into classrooms remains hugely important in some of the world’s poorest countries, and it can be achieved with targeted measures, say, to make their daily commute safer. But balanced school enrollment numbers are only the beginning. There is also a need to address the underlying causes of unequal educational outcomes.

The G-Minus-2 Threat
Arvind Subramanian and Josh Felman (Project Syndicate) Jul 26, 2019
The US-dominated G1 world is long gone, and the G2 system in which America and China shared hegemonic responsibilities is now fading into memory. In today's G-minus-2 world, US and Chinese policies threaten to have devastating consequences for the global economy.

Misrule Britannia
Nicholas Reed Langen (Project Syndicate) Jul 26, 2019
Contrary to the assurances of Brexiteers like the United Kingdom’s new prime minister, withdrawing from the European Union has turned out to be an extraordinarily complicated affair. In fact, it will probably require the UK to draft a standalone constitution for the first time in its history.

How does access to electricity affect people’s lives?
Taryn Dinkelman (VoxDev) Jul 26, 2019
Free electricity connections in rural South African households changed home production technologies and induced more women to work in the market.

The declining labour share of income: Accounting for the main factors
Jan Mischke, Hans-Helmut Kotz, and Jacques Bughin (VoxEU) Jul 26, 2019
Since the 1980s, labour compensation relative to aggregate output has been on an inexorable downward trend across major developed economies. This column deploys a simple accounting technology to tease out the driving factors behind this, focusing on the US. The findings highlight the key role of under-appreciated factors, including supercycles and boom-bust effects and rising depreciation. The analysis suggests that while the effect of some factors may dampen or reverse, others will likely continue at an uncertain pace.

The determinants of utility of international currencies
Eiji Ogawa and Makoto Muto (VoxEU) Jul 26, 2019
Given the US dollar’s historical prominence in international currency systems, it can be argued that a large part of its present-day importance is due to inertia. This column analyses the determinants of the utility of four international currencies, focusing on the liquidity premium. It shows that while inertia does have a strong effect on a currency’s utility, a liquidity shortage can also reduce the utility of an international currency.

Brexit Update: The Sword of Damocles
Erik Nelson (WF) Jul 26, 2019
The Brexit process enters a new chapter with Boris Johnson taking the helm as U.K. prime minister. In our view, the probability of a no-deal exit is now higher (30%), while more broadly, the universe of possible scenarios (general election, another delay, second referendum, etc.) remains quite large. In this report, we discuss the likelihood and possible implications of each of these scenarios.

China’s Long View
Stephen S. Roach (Project Syndicate) Jul 27, 2019
Time and again, the long view in China has stood in sharp contrast to America’s short-term approach. Sun Tzu put it best in his ancient treatise, The Art of War: “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the results of a hundred battles.”

Legal origins
Rafael La Porta, Florencio Lopez de Silanes, Andrei Shleifer, and Robert Vishny (VoxEU) Jul 27, 2019
Colonisation created ‘legal families’ of laws which were substantially influenced by the origin countries. This column, taken from a Vox ebook, discusses how these legal families often exhibit substantively different legal rules and approaches, which then have a significant influence on economic outcomes.

India Faces a Looming Disaster
Sumit Ganguly and Jai Shankar Prasad (FP) Jul 27, 2019
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party won a strong mandate in the last election. But the BJP’s ultranationalist ideology threatens India’s democracy and its economy.

Global policy adjusts to the surprising effects of trade wars
Gavyn Davies (FT) Jul 28, 2019
China was expected to be the main casualty but that has not been the case so far.

The EU must prepare for a no-deal Brexit
Wolfgang Münchau (FT) Jul 28, 2019
Europe’s leaders have failed to anticipate the risks of an overnight UK exit.

Facebook’s Libra and the scourge of hot money
Rana Foroohar (FT) Jul 28, 2019
The proposed cryptocurrency would exacerbate existing problems in the financial system.

A Recession Is Coming (Eventually). Here’s Where You’ll See It First.
Ben Casselman (NYT) Jul 28, 2019
Economists don’t know when the decade-long expansion, now the longest in American history, will end. But here are the indicators they will be watching to figure it out.

U.S. income inequality doesn’t have to be the worst in the industrialized world
WP Jul 28, 2019
Trump’s policies have tilted the distribution of income after taxes upward to the rich.

Look beyond Europe for the IMF’s new leader
Shinji Takagi (IMF) Jul 28, 2019
What are the chances that the next IMF managing director will come from Asia? Not high.

Key Economic Data May Leave Markets Unfazed
Mohamed Aly El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Jul 28, 2019
Investors will remain obsessed with what central banks do.

How India’s Dollar Bond Made Too Many Enemies
Andy Mukherjee (Bloomberg View) Jul 28, 2019
Modi’s finance secretary took the fall for uniting opponents of foreign-currency debt, but the rupee will benefit in the long term.

Brexit has become the enemy of the UK union
FT View Jul 29, 2019
Boris Johnson’s ‘do or die’ strategy is gambling with Britain’s future.

Congress needs to face up to the fiscal future
FT View Jul 29, 2019
A new budget deal will not address America’s long-term economic health.

Modi has the support to build on his bold first term
Gaurav Dalmia (FT) Jul 29, 2019
India’s prime minister is steering the country towards a path of competitiveness.

White House and the Fed must communicate better
Glenn Hubbard (FT) Jul 29, 2019
A war of words over interest rates has masked bigger issues.

Investors must rethink portfolios in era of low debt yields
Sophie Huynh (FT) Jul 29, 2019
Threat of ‘Japanification’ stalks markets and fund managers need to respond.

The Confusing Federal Reserve
WSJ Jul 29, 2019
The second-quarter GDP report did not make the case for easing.

A Fed Reversal Will Store Up Trouble
Danny Yong and Nikhil Srinivasan (WSJ) Jul 29, 2019
The central bank may cut interest rates when asset prices are high and unemployment low. Why?

Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean: A Stalling Recovery
Alejandro Werner (IMF) Jul 29, 2019
Economic activity in Latin America and the Caribbean remains sluggish. Real GDP is expected to grow by 0.6 percent in 2019—the slowest rate since 2016—before rising to 2.3 percent in 2020.

How much does the world spend on the Sustainable Development Goals?
Homi Kharas and John McArthur (Brookings) Jul 29, 2019
Pouring several colors of paint into a single bucket produces a gray pool of muck, not a shiny rainbow. So too with discussions of financing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Jumbling too many issues into the same debate leads to policy muddiness rather than practical breakthroughs. Financing the SDGs requires a much more disaggregated mindset: unpacking the specific issues, requiring specific resources, in specific places.

The Bond Market Is Heading for Fun in the Sun
Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg View) Jul 29, 2019
Italian stability, ECB stimulus and the ever-present hunt for yield all add up to an easy summer for European fixed-income.

Why China Has Chickened Out of Another Bank Seizure
Shuli Ren (Bloomberg View) Jul 29, 2019
A second small regional lender is in trouble, but taking it over could do more harm than good.

Maybe Banks Really Aren’t Worried About Brexit
Mark Whitehouse (Bloomberg View) Jul 29, 2019
Data on cross-border lending suggest they’re not moving much business out of the U.K.

A Fed Rate Cut This Week Won't Be the Start of Trend
Timothy A Duy (Bloomberg View) Jul 29, 2019
Further reductions will require a broader deterioration in the data or an intensification of the risks facing the economy.

More of India’s Shadow Banks Need to Go Bust
Mihir Sharma (Bloomberg View) Jul 29, 2019
Policymakers should remove any illusion that they will bail out institutions engaging in risky lending.

Europe’s Partnership with Morocco
Ana Palacio (Project Syndicate) Jul 29, 2019
Morocco has lately been strengthening its ties with the rest of Africa, through a combination of religious outreach and commercial linkages. For Europe, this represents an important opportunity to build on and benefit from a relationship that has progressed significantly in the past 20 years.

How Europe’s Populists Lost the EU Game of Thrones
Slawomir Sierakowski (Project Syndicate) Jul 29, 2019
In the European Union's leadership negotiations this month, populist governments failed not only to act as spoilers, but also to secure any concessions at all. They now have every reason to worry that they will be held accountable for their routine violations of the rule of law when EU funds are disbursed.

The Many Roots of Puerto Rico’s Crisis
Anne O. Krueger (Project Syndicate) Jul 29, 2019
After mounting protests, Ricardo Rosselló has resigned as governor of Puerto Rico, putting the territory's most immediate political crisis to rest. But what the US territory really needs is an accord with officials on the mainland to start addressing structural issues that have been impeding economic growth and formal employment.

Can electricity access help solve poverty in Kenya?
Kenneth Lee, Edward Miguel, and Catherine Wolfram (VoxDev) Jul 29, 2019
Ensuring sufficient investment to establish reliable access to comprehensive basic services, beyond electricity, is needed for impacts to be achieved.

What's Driving Japan's Trade Restrictions on South Korea?
Mina Pollmann (Diplomat) Jul 29, 2019
The export controls are a policy of last resort from a frustrated Tokyo.

Will Facebook’s Libra Change the Way the World Banks?
Kevin Werbach (FA) Jul 29, 2019
A new cryptocurrency vies to disrupt.

The Invention of Money
John Lanchester (New Yorker) Jul 29, 2019
In three centuries, the heresies of two bankers became the basis of our modern economy.

How to tame China’s rogue state capitalism
Sherman Katz (FT) Jul 30, 2019
The west must focus on the scale and scope of Beijing’s industrial subsidies.

A wealth tax will not solve US inequality
Leon Cooperman (FT) Jul 30, 2019
Hedge fund magnate argues that eliminating waste and income tax loopholes are better options.

Profoundly low interest rates are here to stay
Robin Harding (FT) Jul 30, 2019
Investors and policymakers must recalibrate their assumptions on capital and investment.

How to tame China’s rogue state capitalism
Sherman Katz (FT) Jul 30, 2019
The west must focus on the scale and scope of Beijing’s industrial subsidies.

Blame the government for the falling pound
Katie Martin (FT) Jul 30, 2019
Now that the direction of travel on Brexit is clear, investors are acting accordingly.

A squeezed BoJ is delivering diminishing returns
Henny Sender (FT) Jul 30, 2019
Only brokerages will benefit if the central bank steps up buying of ETFs and J-Reits.

Why weaker pound has failed to turbocharge the economy
Azad Zangana (FT) Jul 30, 2019
Without an increase in exports, the expected benefit from the currency depreciation is lost.

López Obrador takes on Mexico’s institutions
Jude Webber (FT) Jul 30, 2019
As the president attacks corruption and poverty, some worry he is flirting with demagoguery.

The 99% Get a Bigger Raise
WSJ Jul 30, 2019
New data show much faster growth in wages and incomes.

Why Japan’s $200 billion man is not investing at home
William Pesek (AT) Jul 30, 2019
SoftBank’s Son could offer a steroid boost for a tired-looking Abenomics – but questions also hang over his investment strategy.

The pound is tumbling on fears of a no-deal Brexit
Economist Jul 30, 2019
On its current trajectory, it might end up at parity with the dollar.

The Asian free lunch is over
Brian Caplen (Banker) Jul 30, 2019
With European banking still in a crisis of low returns and bad assets, it is tempting to think that everything is rosy in Asia. Two recent reports dispel this myth.

U.S. Dollar Policy: Through the Looking Glass of U.S. Currency Intervention
Gene Frieda and Tiffany Wilding (PIMCO) Jul 30, 2019
The market consequences of direct intervention by the U.S. could be substantial and thus bear consideration.

Don’t Expect the Fed to Do It All
Bloomberg View Jul 30, 2019
If its worst fears about the economy prove justified, monetary policy won’t be the answer.

Europe Needs a Different Approach to IMF Leadership
Mohamed Aly El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Jul 30, 2019
With global financial risks building, the institution needs a more credible, merit-based approach to picking its new chief.

The Fed Might Not Cut Rates More Than Once
William C Dudley (Bloomberg View) Jul 30, 2019
Recent economic data have weakened the case for added stimulus.

The End of ECB Restraint
Hans-Werner Sinn (Project Syndicate) Jul 30, 2019
Outgoing European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has indicated that the bank is planning a new round of aggressive monetary stimulus. Such measures will most likely have negative economic consequences – not least by further increasing the cost pressures weighing down German industry.

Populism Takes Asia
Lee Jong-Wha (Project Syndicate) Jul 30, 2019
Despite the damage populists have done in the West, Asian voters are increasingly falling for the likes of India’s Narendra Modi, Indonesia’s Joko Widodo, and the Philippines’ Rodrigo Duterte. How can responsible Asian leaders take the wind out of populists’ sails?

Who Will Win the Twenty-First Century?
Joschka Fischer (Project Syndicate) Jul 30, 2019
For years, Europeans were lulled into thinking that the peace and prosperity of the immediate post-Cold War period would be self-sustaining. But, two decades into the twenty-first century, it is clear that the Old Continent miscalculated and now must catch up to the digital revolution.

Great Countries, Bad Leaders
Chris Patten (Project Syndicate) Jul 30, 2019
China and the United States are great countries, but are being badly governed – one by Leninist autocrats afraid of their own shadow, and the other by a bizarre populist who prefers despots to liberal democrats. For now, the rest of the world has good reason to hope for better and wiser leadership in Beijing and Washington – and soon.

Trade and investment in the global economy
James Anderson, Mario Larch, and Yoto Yotov (VoxEU) Jul 30, 2019
Foreign direct investment has traditionally been viewed as a key driver of prosperity, and modern FDI has also become a vehicle for transferring intangible assets. This column uses a counterfactual experiment based on a hypothetical world with no outward or inward FDI to and from low-income and lower-middle-income countries to examine the effects of FDI on trade, domestic investment, and welfare. World welfare falls by about 6% and all countries lose out, with some poorer countries losing over 50%. World trade falls by 7%, with the losses again unevenly distributed.

The Bretton Woods Institutions and the second crisis of multilateralism
Luke Fletcher (BWP) Jul 30, 2019
At 75, BWIs face a crisis of multilateralism in no small part of their own making as failed economic policies have resulted in skepticism of the international order they helped to create.

Macron’s reform effort regains its momentum
FT View Jul 31, 2019
France should pursue structural change despite economic headwinds.

The three forces pinching EM equity returns
Steve Johnson (FT) Jul 31, 2019
Asset class that used to excel in risk-on environments is lagging behind developed markets.

Oil price swings won’t cause stocks to slide
Ken Fisher (FT) Jul 31, 2019
Even if the oil price spikes, it won’t hugely imperil Britain, Europe or the rest of the developed world.

The Fed Buys ‘Insurance’
WSJ Jul 31, 2019
Monetary policy isn’t a job with Jay Powell. It’s an adventure.

Why the Federal Reserve Cut Interest Rates
Karl Russell and Jeanna Smialek (NYT) Jul 31, 2019
The move is what’s called an “insurance cut” — one that central bankers are making to keep growth chugging along.

Trade war drags on amid economic turmoil
GOrdon Watts (AT) Jul 31, 2019
Talks fizzle out until September as the battle of wills between China and the United States continues.

Boris Johnson: Africa and the Commonwealth Beware
Sechaba Nkosi (Globalist) Jul 31, 2019
Johnson thinks Africa can benefit from adopting more British values. He wants it to be a carbon copy of its former colonial masters.

Should Multilaterals be Contractors or Collectives? A Case Study of World Bank Trust Funds
Owen Barder, Euan Ritchie and Andrew Rogerson (CGD) Jul 31, 2019
Do we want our multilateral institutions to be effective contractors, responsive to the priorities of their richest donors? Or do we want them to be cooperatives of nations working together: addressing shared problems by pooling resources, risk, and knowledge, to resolve what Kofi Annan memorably dubbed “problems without passports?”

The Last Place You’d Look for Value Stocks
Shuli Ren (Bloomberg View) Jul 31, 2019
South Korea is caught between two trade wars and its northern neighbor is firing missiles. Bold investors can start hunting through the wreckage.

Boris Johnson Is in a Battle With Currency Traders
John Authers (Bloomberg View) Jul 31, 2019
The foreign-exchange market has a history of humiliating British prime ministers, even the greatest of them.

China Buying More U.S. Farm Goods Is a Dead End
David Fickling (Bloomberg View) Jul 31, 2019
Beijing has already started sourcing agricultural products from other countries. Temporary measures like this can end up sticking.

‘Small Is Beautiful’ Can Work in Developing Africa
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Jul 31, 2019
Solar and mobile technology offer ways to work around the continent’s shaky infrastructure.

Mark Carney Is Smacked in the Face by Brexit Reality
Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg View) Jul 31, 2019
Sterling’s plight has boxed the U.K.’s central bank into a corner. It needs a clearer plan for how to manage Boris Johnson’s “no-deal” Brexit threat.

Boris Johnson Is Playing With Fire on the Pound
Lionel Laurent (Bloomberg View) Jul 31, 2019
Some Brexiters think sterling’s plunge is good for exports. But they’re ignoring the threat of new tariffs, regulatory barriers and higher import costs.

The Perils of Fund Underperformance
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Jul 31, 2019
As more investors question the value active fund managers add, the industry faces an existential crisis.

Markets Remind the Fed That It Can't Win
Mohamed Aly El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Jul 31, 2019
Hours after delivering the desired rate cut, the central bank faced new pressure from markets and the president. What they want, the Fed can’t give.

The Coming Clash Between Climate and Trade
Jean Pisani-Ferry (Project Syndicate) Jul 31, 2019
The new leaders of the European Union, which has relentlessly championed open markets, will, ironically, likely trigger a conflict between climate preservation and free trade. But this clash is unavoidable, and how Europe and the world manage it will help to determine the fate of globalization, if not that of the climate.

Don’t Squander the Techno-Revolution
Christopher Pissarides and Jacques Bughin (Project Syndicate) Jul 31, 2019
Like past waves of technological innovation, the new era of artificial intelligence and automation promises increased productivity, higher wages, and even longer lifespans for everyone. But realizing this potential will require governments and businesses to manage the development and diffusion of frontier technologies carefully.

Economic Growth and the US Presidential Election
Simon Johnson (Project Syndicate) Jul 31, 2019
Slowing US economic growth poses a problem for President Donald Trump, who promised repeatedly that growth would accelerate under his administration and always remain above 3% per year. But will the Democrats prove capable of coalescing around the kind of policies that would really make a difference?

How Not to Think About Job Creation
Ricardo Hausmann (Project Syndicate) Jul 31, 2019
Governments are right to focus on creating more good jobs, because work is the source of most people’s livelihood in every society. But in the majority of cases, the solution lies in policy areas that are not amenable to tools wielded by ministers of labor or education.

Central Banks Are the Fall Guys
Raghuram G. Rajan (Project Syndicate) Jul 31, 2019
For decades, the freedom of monetary policymakers to make difficult decisions without having to worry about political blowback has proven indispensable to macroeconomic stability. But now, central bankers must ease monetary policies in response to populist mistakes for which they themselves will be blamed.

Electricity grid expansion and firm turnover in Indonesia
Dana Kassem (VoxDev) Jul 31, 2019
Electrification generates industrial development by attracting entrants through lowering barriers to entry, and thus increasing competition.

Perspectives on the Soft Power of EU Trade Policy
San Bilal and Bernard Hoekman (editors) Jul 31, 2019
EU trade agreements aim at reducing foreign market access barriers, but also condition the terms of preferential access to the Single Market on regulation in partner countries in areas such as social and labour standards. Is this an effective strategy? Does it come at the cost of attaining economic objectives? This eBook brings together different perspectives on these and other questions.

The Asian Century Is Over
Michael Auslin (FP) Jul 31, 2019
The so-called Asian Century has come to an end as the region suffers through stagnating economies and political woes.