News & Commentary:

Articles/Commentary

Oil Export Momentum
WSJ Sep 1, 2015
Support is growing to repeal a Nixon-era ban that Iran and Russia love.

China’s Crackdown on Rumors Will Only Hurt Its Economy
NYT Sep 1, 2015
Jailing people won’t help the broader economy or the financial markets.

Pessimism Pervades Mexico as Economic Promises Fall Short
Elisabeth Malkin (NYT) Sep 1, 2015
As Enrique Peña Nieto prepares to reboot his presidency, the Mexican economy is being pummeled by forces beyond the government’s control.

China risks an economic discontinuity
Martin Wolf (FT) Sep 1, 2015
Many believe the economy is already growing far more slowly than the government admits.

China’s bank questions will not go away
Henny Sender (FT) Sep 1, 2015
Equities debacle means Beijing is no longer seen as infallible.

Why caution rules for EM and commodities
John Bilton (FT) Sep 1, 2015
Four themes are at play: US rate rise, China, European recovery and oil.

China’s Crisis Could Get a Lot Worse, Quickly
Daniel Altman (FP) Sep 1, 2015
China’s financial crisis is far from over, and could take a turn for the worse, writes FP’s Daniel Altman: Read more

National Liberation Fronts: United Against the Euro
Daniel Stelter and Stephan Richter (Globalist) Sep 1, 2015
Why establishment parties in Europe are increasingly left defenseless against a hardening opposition against the euro.

The Fight Against Corruption: On the Home Stretch?
Frank Vogl (Globalist) Sep 1, 2015
Why September 2015 matters much in the global battle on routing out corruption.

How Bad Is China’s Economic Slowdown?
John Cassidy (New Yorker) Sep 1, 2015
There are a number of factors that make it difficult to get a handle on what’s really happening.

Alibaba Is the Canary in China's Coal Mine
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Sep 1, 2015
As the e-commerce giant goes, so goes the country.

It's a Bad Time to Depend on China
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Sep 1, 2015
Beijing is shedding its export-driven growth model.

The Fed Should Raise Rates Already
Lincoln S. Ellis (Bloomberg View) Sep 1, 2015
Easy money has made us all addicted to the stock market.

Call Cease-Fire in the War on Cash
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Sep 1, 2015
Physical money is less efficient, but still useful.

Democratizing the Eurozone
Yanis Varoufakis (Project Syndicate) Sep 1, 2015
Political systems prove their worth by how quickly they put an end to their officials’ serial, mutually reinforcing, policy mistakes. Judged by this standard, the eurozone, comprising 19 well-established democracies, lags behind the largest non-democratic economy in the world.

Who Will Suffer Most from Climate Change?
Bill Gates (Project Syndicate) Sep 1, 2015
For the world’s poorest farmers, life is a high-wire act: Just one stroke of bad fortune – a drought, a flood, or an illness – is enough for them to tumble deeper into poverty and hunger. And now climate change is set to add a fresh layer of risk to their lives, highlighting the need for effective adaptation measures.

Worried About China? Keep Calm as Markets Return to Earth
David Dapice (YaleGlobal) Sep 1, 2015
Stock-market volatility for China and beyond signals reassessment of global risks; investors in transparent markets should not panic

Soft power raises exports
Andrew K Rose (VoxEU) Sep 1, 2015
A nation’s hard power is based on its ability to coerce, while its soft power depends on the attractiveness of its culture, political ideals, and policies. This column shows that a country’s soft power has measureable effects on its exports. Countries that are admired for their positive global influence export more, holding other things constant.

Leveraged bubbles
Òscar Jordà, Moritz Schularick and Alan Taylor (VoxEU) Sep 1, 2015
The risk that asset price bubbles pose for financial stability is still not clear. Drawing on 140 years of data, this column argues that leverage is the critical determinant of crisis damage. When fuelled by credit booms, asset price bubbles are associated with high financial crisis risk; upon collapse, they coincide with weaker growth and slower recoveries. Highly leveraged housing bubbles are the worst case of all.

Bean Counters to the Rescue
Diane Coyle (FA) Sep 1, 2015
Can accounting save capitalism from itself?

Uncertain Times
José Antonio Ocampo (F&D) Sep 1, 2015
After a decade of social and economic progress, Latin America is facing challenging issues.

Most Unequal on Earth
Nora Lustig (F&D) Sep 1, 2015
Latin America is a region of stark income contrasts but has been making progress.

Corruption Matters
Daniel Kaufmann (F&D) Sep 1, 2015
Governance has progressed in a few Latin American countries but corruption still hinders development in the region.

Spill Over
Jiaqian Chen, Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli, and Ratna Sahay (F&D) Sep 1, 2015
The Federal Reserve’s recent unconventional monetary policies seem to have affected emerging markets more than traditional policies

Fiscal Tightening and Economic Growth: Exploring Cross-Country Correlations
Paolo Mauro and Jan Zilinsky (PIIE) Sep 1, 2015
The global financial and economic crisis that began in 2008 has rekindled the debate on the impact of fiscal policy on economic growth. At the outset of the crisis the focus—particularly in the United States—was on whether fiscal stimulus (an expansion in the fiscal deficit) boosts economic growth.

China should welcome its short sellers
John Gapper (FT) Sep 2, 2015
Foreign hedge funds are convenient villains in a financial crisis.

A chance for Europe to rescue its integrity
Peter Sutherland (FT) Sep 2, 2015
The failure to tackle the refugee crisis has intensified this human disaster.

Malaysia’s economic frailty is too familiar
David Pilling (FT) Sep 2, 2015
The country is facing comparisons with the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

Robots alone will not halt worker decline
Diane Coyle (FT) Sep 2, 2015
Leading economies are entering era of an ageing and shrinking workforce.

World faces third deflationary wave
Dominic Rossi (FT) Sep 2, 2015
EM crisis means further fall in potential global output is unavoidable.

No Resting on Laurels, European Central Bank Leader Faces New Threats
Jack Ewing (NYT) Sep 2, 2015
Eurozone growth has improved since the central bank began its stimulus program, but there are new uncertainties in European and global economies.

Ukraine: Costs of conflict
Elaine Moore, Roman Olearchyk and Neil Buckley (FT) Sep 2, 2015
A debt deal agreed with the IMF and creditors averted default but the war-torn country’s worries are far from over.

Banks Are Perilously Exposed to China
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Sep 2, 2015
Foreign financial institutions have almost $1 trillion of claims on Chinese counterparties.

Will Oil Cause the Next Recession?
A. Gary Shilling (Bloomberg View) Sep 2, 2015
Falling crude prices could spark deflation.

Latin America's 100 Years of Slow Growth
Justin Fox (Bloomberg View) Sep 2, 2015
Blame economic mismanagement, not U.S. imperialism.

How Modi Can Get Back on Track
Dhiraj Nayyar (Bloomberg View) Sep 2, 2015
The focus should shift to radical changes that'll benefit the poor, not just the middle class.

Getting Bank Culture Right
Jean-Claude Trichet (Project Syndicate) Sep 2, 2015
Banks and banking rely on trust. But while trust takes years to establish, it can be squandered abruptly if a bank’s ethics are weak, its values poor, and its behavior simply wrong.

Puerto Rico in Crisis
Anne Krueger (Project Syndicate) Sep 2, 2015
Unlike Greece, Puerto Rico is not a country, which means that it is ineligible for multilateral financing; but nor is it a US state. This arrangement, though advantageous in some respects, also implies serious obstacles to the restoration of growth that the island so desperately needs.

Europe Rethinks the Schengen Agreement
Stratfor Sep 2, 2015
Rising immigration and fragile economic recovery in Europe will reduce political support for the Schengen Agreement, which eliminates border controls among member states. The Schengen Agreement will likely be reformed to make room for countries to tighten their border controls more frequently. Friction between Schengen members and other countries will remain, as will tension within the bloc itself.

Six questions about China’s rise from 1953
Anton Cheremukhin, Mikhail Golosov, Sergei Guriev and Aleh Tsyvinski (VoxEU) Sep 2, 2015
Economists tend to focus on reforms that came after 1979 when explaining China’s soaring economic growth. This column argues that they shouldn’t. Mao’s policies also had a huge effect and should not be ignored. Economists and policymakers would do well to look further back in history. A long-term perspective might also help them bust a few myths along the way.

China risks repeating the errors of Japan
Gillian Tett (FT) Sep 3, 2015
To see what happens when government tries to prop up stock prices, Tokyo’s story is sobering.

Tech booms are good but do not last
Richard Waters (FT) Sep 3, 2015
The question is not whether this boom will end, but when and how.

EM corporate ‘carry trade’ revealed
Dan McCrum (FT) Sep 3, 2015
BIS paper suggests companies are raising cash in US currency for financial, not commercial, reasons.

How Russia Is Using Chinese Largesse to Circumvent the West's Sanctions
Simeon Djankov (PIIE) Sep 3, 2015
China has been energetically touting the benefits of its New Silk Road initiative, which aims to spend $40 billion a year to link Europe and Asia via roads, rail, and water. The stated goal is to open a whole region—Central and South Asia—to the world. The goal, China says, is to cut transport times for many goods by two-thirds, reducing costs.

Why Not to Worry About China (Too Much)
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Sep 3, 2015
The world is better able to withstand a true downturn.

Will Jobs Be the Fed's Tiebreaker on Rate Hike?
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Sep 3, 2015
The central bank must weigh the strong U.S. economy against global market turmoil.

Brazil's Political Jungle Swallows Its Economic Superman
Mac Margolis (Bloomberg View) Sep 3, 2015
Finance Minister Joaquim Levy has a plan for Brazil's economy. But is anyone listening?

Globalized Crisis
Harold James (Project Syndicate) Sep 3, 2015
If there is a bright side to the turmoil that has roiled the world economy since 2008, it is that it has not erupted everywhere simultaneously. But, as the crisis becomes ever more global in nature, the challenge for policymakers will be to contain the impulse to reduce engagement with the rest of the world.

Inflation, the Fed, and the Big Picture
Carmen Reinhart (Project Syndicate) Sep 3, 2015
Inflation was the theme of this year’s international conference of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. But, while policymakers are right to prepare for future risks to price stability, they did not place these concerns in the context of recent inflation developments at the global level – or within historical perspective.

IMF to the Aid of Ukraine: Well-Intended, But Misguided
David R. Cameron (YaleGlobal) Sep 3, 2015
Ukraine struggles with separatists, protests, reforms – and an IMF debt deal on shaky ground.

Uncovering myths about China’s investments in Africa
Wenjie Chen, David Dollar and Heiwei Tang (Brookings) Sep 3, 2015
When examining Chinese investment in Africa at the firm level, Wenjie Chen, David Dollar, and Heiwai Tang argue that many of the West's concerns over Chinese investment in Africa may be predicated on myths.

Trade agreements, trade deficits and jobs
Céline Carrère, Anja Grujovic and Frédéric Robert-Nicoud (VoxEU) Sep 3, 2015
When looking at the potential effects of a trade policy, trade economists usually insist on the real income effects, often dismissing its unemployment effects as of second-order importance, whereas policymakers and the public at large tend to voice concerns about jobs gained or lost. This column presents a quantitative framework that weighs both concerns, which is especially important when real incomes and the unemployment rates move in the same direction following a trade reform.

A Silver Lining to Brazil's Troubles
Joe Nocera (NYT) Sep 4, 2015
The economy is in tatters, but the country's handling of a huge corruption case shows its democracy and judicial institutions are working.

Other People’s Dollars, and Their Place in Global Economics
Paul Krugman (NYT) Sep 4, 2015
The countries behind greenbacks, Aussies, loonies and kiwis all weathered economic storms better than most of the rest of the world.

Why the Fed Shouldn’t Raise Interest Rates
John Cassidy (New Yorker) Sep 4, 2015
Right now, deflation is arguably a bigger threat than inflation, which is close to zero.

Europe's Economy Needs Action, Not Words
Bloomberg View Sep 4, 2015
Governments need to enact fiscal policy and financial reform.

ECB Should Drop 2% Inflation Fantasy
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Sep 4, 2015
Keeping the target makes the central bank look ineffective.

Why the U.S. Gets the Most Out of Cheap Oil
Matthew A. Winkler (Bloomberg View) Sep 4, 2015
The crude-price slide hasn't done as much for Europe, Japan or anyplace else.

China May Never Get Rich
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Sep 4, 2015
Flawed institutions are likely to hold it back.

China Confronts the Market
Jeffrey Frankel (Project Syndicate) Sep 4, 2015
China’s current economic woes have largely been viewed through a single lens: the government’s failure to let the market operate. But that perspective has led foreign observers to misinterpret this year’s most important developments in the foreign-exchange and stock markets.

A False Alarm About China
Shang-Jin Wei (Project Syndicate) Sep 4, 2015
The volatility in Chinese equity prices in recent months has more to do with the peculiarities of the country's stock markets than with underlying economic fundamentals. As long as China continues to pursue pro-market reforms, its economy will thrive in the long term.

The Foundations of Greece’s Failed Economy
Edmund S. Phelps (Project Syndicate) Sep 4, 2015
Too many politicians and economists blame austerity for the collapse of the Greek economy. But the data show neither marked austerity by historical standards nor government cutbacks severe enough to explain the huge job losses; instead, they show economic ills rooted in the values and beliefs of Greek society.

The Art of Capital Flight
Kenneth Rogoff (Project Syndicate) Sep 4, 2015
For emerging-market investors, art has become a critical tool for moving and hiding wealth, which has been a major factor in the spectacular rise in auction prices of the last several years. So, with emerging-market economies from Russia to Brazil mired in recession, and China slowing rapidly, is the art bubble about to burst?

German industry benefits from free trade
Eric Heymann (DB Research) Sep 4, 2015
Free trade stimulates economic activity in all the signatory countries. The free trade agreement between the EU and South Korea is a relatively recent example providing evidence of this fact. In H1 2015, German goods exports to South Korea were up by more than 50% on the level before the agreement came into force in July 2011; by contrast, total German exports increased by merely 13% in the same period. True, German imports from South Korea fell during this period. However, this was due to two sector-specific one-off effects. Stripping out these effects, the imports rose at an above-average pace. The positive economic stimuli should also be a strong argument in support of the current TTIP negotiations.

The Unthinkable as the New Normal
Klaus Engelen (TIE) Sep 1, 2015
The international economic organizations established after World War II have destroyed their credibility.

Deflation and money
Hiroshi Yoshikawa, Hideaki Aoyama, Yoshi Fujiwara and Hiroshi Iyetomi (VoxEU) Sep 5, 2015
Deflation is a threat to the macroeconomy. Japan had suffered from deflation for more than a decade, and now, Europe is facing it. To combat deflation under the zero interest bound, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank have resorted to quantitative easing, or increasing the money supply. This column explores its effectiveness, through the application of novel methods to distinguish signals from noises.

Financial Leaders Agree to Act to Bolster Growth
Reuters/NYT Sep 6, 2015
Reliance on ultra-low interest rates alone will not be enough, officials from the world's 20 biggest economies said.

Energy poverty, a needless plight
Nick Butler (FT) Sep 6, 2015
China’s success in lifting people from subsistence should be repeated elsewhere.

Capital flight now China’s big concern
Henny Sender (FT) Sep 6, 2015
Question shifts from what it will do with incoming capital.

Africa: Why Economists Get it Wrong
Katrina Manson (FT) Sep 6, 2015
A contrarian approach towards the continent’s growth record risks overlooking the obvious.

Russia: Rise, fall, repeat
Courtney Weaver (FT) Sep 6, 2015
The banker’s financial empire collapsed this summer. Regulators are starting to see a pattern.

Will China crash?
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Sep 6, 2015
The connection between economics and politics. Read full article »

Indonesia Needs a Reboot
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Sep 6, 2015
Hit by falling commodity prices, the economy could use greater consistency from Jakarta.

Bank bailouts and credit default risks in the Eurozone
Marcel Fratzscher and Malte Rieth (VoxEU) Sep 6, 2015
In response to the Crisis, the ECB provided liquidity to banks on a massive scale and intervened in sovereign debt markets. This column argues that bank bailout policies and non-standard monetary policies by the ECB had a significant impact on default risks of sovereigns and banks in the Eurozone. The results, however, show that neither of the two policies was an unqualified success. Policies which are intended to reduce default risk can therefore have opposite effects if they are not properly designed.

China will stumble if Xi stalls on reform
Robert Zoellick (FT) Sep 7, 2015
If Beijing relies on state enterprises it will be favouring special interests.

New rules risk making banks too safe
Patrick Jenkins (FT) Sep 7, 2015
Tough regulations could hit lenders’ profits, spark lay-offs and negatively affect Europe’s economy.

India's Middle-Class Revolt
NYT Sep 7, 2015
A protest by 500,000 members of a relatively well-off caste is a rebuke of the government's economic policies.

China’s changes will help developed world
Diana Choyleva (FT) Sep 7, 2015
Investors should look to buy US equities, particularly on the dip.

The Syriza Dream is Over
Denis MacShane (Globalist) Sep 7, 2015
With Tspirpas running out of luck, Krugman and Stiglitz have to find new political champions to promote the cause of economic self-destruction.

China Can’t Sink Us
James Surowiecki (New Yorker) Sep 7, 2015
The Chinese sell-off has pundits worried about a global economic crisis. It shouldn’t.

This Woman Could Revive Japan
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Sep 7, 2015
To fix its economy, Japan should make use of Seiko Noda and its other 63 million underutilized women.

The Crisis of Our Crises
Jeremy Adelman and Anne-Laure Delatte (Project Syndicate) Sep 7, 2015
At first glance, the crises plaguing the world – from Greece's debt drama to Syria's implosion – seem to have little in common. But these events are not unconnected; on the contrary, they stem from a deeper crisis of international integration and cooperation.

The Inclusive Road to Growth
Klaus Schwab and Richard Samans (Project Syndicate) Sep 7, 2015
There is no bigger policy challenge preoccupying leaders around the world than meeting the need to expand participation in the benefits of economic growth and globalization. Adopting a more socially inclusive model of growth will require widening the lens through which priorities are set when shaping national economic strategies.

Fed Up with the Fed
Joseph E. Stiglitz (Project Syndicate) Sep 7, 2015
Every August, central bankers and financiers from around the world meet in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. This year, the participants were greeted by a large group of mostly young people, who were there not so much to protest as to emphasize to the assembled policymakers that what they do affects ordinary citizens, not just financiers.

Necessary Migrants
Ian Buruma (Project Syndicate) Sep 7, 2015
Though unpopular, economic migration to the European Union from non-EU countries, under carefully managed conditions, is both legitimate and imperative. This is not because the migrants deserve Europeans’ sympathy, but because Europe needs them.

The Eurozone Crisis: A Consensus View of the Causes and a Few Possible Solutions
Richard Baldwin and Francesco Giavazzi (VoxEU) Sep 7, 2015
There is not yet a consensus on what more needs to be done in order to cope with the Eurozone Crisis. This new Vox eBook concerns the causes and possible solutions to the problem. In it, the authors highlight three ultimate causes for the Crisis. First, policy failures allowed the imbalances to become very large. A second cause is the lack of institutions to absorb shocks at the EZ level. The third one is crisis mismanagement.

Breaking the Greek debt impasse
Barry Eichengreen, Peter Allen and Gary Evans (VoxEU) Sep 7, 2015
Greece needs debt restructuring. Yet, to get debt reduction, the Greek government is required to implement structural reforms. This column proposes a way to square the circle by introducing a Structural Reform Index in Greek loan contracts. The central feature of the proposal is the linkage of debt relief to progress in structural reforms. The features and conditions of the proposal should make it desirable both for Greece and the German government and other creditors.

How to trade the China story, up and down
Henny Sender (FT) Sep 8, 2015
There may be a better investment case for China than the US.

The case for keeping interest rates low
Martin Wolf (FT) Sep 8, 2015
After nearly seven years of zero interest rates, the inflation of which critics warned is invisible.

Boom, bust and broken trust mark finance
John Kay (FT) Sep 8, 2015
Managers of other people’s money lack ‘anxious vigilance’ that they might apply to their own cash.

The New Silk Road and Eastern Europe
Simeon Djankov (PIIE) Sep 8, 2015
In April 2012, when serving in the Bulgarian government as deputy prime minister and minister of finance, I received an unexpected call from my prime minister: to get on a plane immediately and participate in a China–Eastern Europe economic forum the next morning in Warsaw. The forum was hosted by Polish prime minister Donald Tusk, on the heels of a visit of Chinese premier Wen Jiabao to Western Europe.

The G20 and the interest rate reality
Kevin Carmichael (CIGI) Sep 8, 2015
The Group of 20 has struggled in recent years to maintain its relevancy. But it may have just re-established its worth by laying a foundation for higher interest rates.

Indonesia Refuses to Be Railroaded Into Debt
Adam Minter (Bloomberg View) Sep 8, 2015
Its decision on infrastructure spending sets an example for other developing nations.

Selling Off the State in China
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Sep 8, 2015
Hasty privatizations could breed a new class of oligarchs.

Industrial-Strength Africa
Li Yong (Project Syndicate) Sep 8, 2015
Addressing Europe's ongoing migration crisis, which has already brought close to a quarter-million migrants to the EU's shores this year, requires efforts not only to address instability in source regions, but also to alleviate poverty and create employment. For Africa, industrialization is the key to achieving the latter goal.

Europe Under Siege?
Daniel Gros (Project Syndicate) Sep 8, 2015
Whether they are being exposed to refugees firsthand, or just seeing images of them splashed across newspaper pages, Europeans are well aware of the vast numbers of desperate people trying to enter EU territory by any means possible. But this awareness has yet to translate into a unified response.

India Ends a Retroactive Tax Raid
WSJ Sep 8, 2015
A case study in why Modi’s economic reform effort is struggling.

Do the Math: The Rich Really Are Different
Mark Buchanan (Bloomberg View) Sep 8, 2015
Research suggests they're uniquely positioned to steer more money their way.

Britain's Status as a Trading Nation Ties It to Europe
Mark Fleming-Williams (Stratfor) Sep 8, 2015
At some point in the next two years, British voters will decide whether to remain a part of the European Union.

The housing cost disease
Nicola Borri and Pietro Reichlin (VoxEU) Sep 8, 2015
Some argue that the increasing wealth-to-income ratios observed in many advanced economies are determined by housing and capital gains. This column considers the growing wealth-to-income ratio in an economy where capital and labour are used in two sectors: construction and manufacturing. If productivity in manufacturing grows faster than in construction – a ‘housing cost disease’ – it has adverse effects on social welfare. Concretely, the higher the appreciation of the value of housing, the lower the welfare benefit of a rising labour efficiency in manufacturing.

Monetary policy timing means Fed must act
Richard Fisher (FT) Sep 9, 2015
The idea is to silence the noise in inflation yet leave the signal.

Delhi’s dangerous dream of overtaking China
David Pilling (FT) Sep 9, 2015
India’s overly inflated statistics are breeding a false sense of security.

TPP Countries Prepare to Regroup in Wake of Hawaii Meeting
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 29 Sep 9, 2015
The 12 Pacific Rim countries working to reach a sweeping trade deal are gearing up with an eye to resuming – and possibly concluding – their negotiations in the coming weeks, officials say, after their ministerial-level meeting in late July that failed to yield a highly-awaited agreement.

"No Time to Waste," Warns New WTO Farm Talks Chair
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 29 Sep 9, 2015
WTO members confirmed on Tuesday the formal appointment of Vangelis Vitalis, New Zealand's ambassador to the global trade body, as the new chair of the organisation's agriculture negotiations.

The Return of the "Ugly German": Unavoidable?
Alexei Bayer (Globalist) Sep 9, 2015
Europe may fear Germany, but the European project needs it.

Migration: Notes on Potential Impact on Europe
Holger Schmieding (Globalist) Sep 9, 2015
Domestic policy response matters more than any decision about an initial distribution of migrants.

Why the Greeks Should Repudiate Their Government's Debt
Simon Wilson (Mises Daily) Sep 9, 2015
In apportioning blame for the Greek government debt crisis, it would be difficult not to lay the major share on Greece itself.

A New Chance for Greece
Yannos Papantoniou (Project Syndicate) Sep 9, 2015
On September 20, Greek voters will go to the polls – yet again – in a snap election called by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. After the latest financial rescue – additional money from the country’s creditors in exchange for structural reforms – will Greece, the twenty-first century’s “sick man of Europe,” refuse to take its medicine?

Should Germany Leave the Euro?
Michael Heise (Project Syndicate) Sep 9, 2015
The debate over whether Greece should leave the eurozone has revived the idea that Germany, and other similarly strong economies, would do the rest of the continent a favor if they were the ones to leave the monetary union. It is an idea that is shortsighted, impractical, and economically dubious.

The age of global value chains
João Amador and Filippo di Mauro (VoxEU) Sep 9, 2015
There is an urgent need for policymakers to fully acknowledge the extent to which conventional indicators related to gross trade are severely flawed as policy benchmarks because they fail to take into account the existence of global value chains and their increasing role in shaping the global economy. This column, which introduces a new Vox eBook, urges academics to start proposing workable indicators that are systematically produced and readily available.

China's Freer Market
William Adams (FA) Sep 9, 2015
And the tumult it brings.

The age of global value chains
João Amador and Filippo di Mauro (VoxEU) Sep 9, 2015
There is an urgent need for policymakers to fully acknowledge the extent to which conventional indicators related to gross trade are severely flawed as policy benchmarks because they fail to take into account the existence of global value chains and their increasing role in shaping the global economy. This column, which introduces a new Vox eBook, urges academics to start proposing workable indicators that are systematically produced and readily available.

Push factors and capital flows to emerging markets
Eugenio Cerutti, Stijn Claessens and Damien Puy (VoxEU) Sep 9, 2015
Recent economic and financial events, such as the ‘taper tantrum’, have highlighted again the relevance of global factors in driving capital flows to emerging markets. This column suggests that capital flows to emerging markets move in part due to global push factors. However, sensitivity to these push factors differs greatly across types of flows and emerging markets. How much push factors affect individual emerging markets depends on their local liquidity and the composition of their foreign investor bases. Countries relying more on international funds and global banks are significantly more affected by changes in push factors.

China's Economic Transformation: Lessons, Impact, and the Path Forward
Tomas Hellebrandt, Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, Robert Z. Lawrence, Paolo Mauro, Silvia Merler, Sean Miner, Jeffrey J. Schott, and Nicolas Veron (PIIE) Sep 9, 2015
China's efforts to transition from an economy driven by investment and exports to one based on private consumption and services are roiling global markets. Its problems are compounded by an economic slowdown, rising debt levels, languishing real estate market, and lagging productivity growth.

Berlin should seize second Huguenot moment
Guntram Wolff (FT) Sep 10, 2015
Merkel has a chance to turn the refugee crisis into an economic opportunity.

Stuttering countdown to Fed rate lift-off
Michael Mackenzie (FT) Sep 10, 2015
The central bank’s dilemma keeps uneasy markets guessing.

Germany’s road to redemption shines amid Europe’s refugee debate
Fareed Zakaria (WP) Sep 10, 2015
No country has done more to atone for its horrific history.

Seeking Safety Abroad: The Hidden Story in China’s FDI Statistics
Farok J. Contractor (YaleGlobal) Sep 10, 2015
The Chinese prefer investing overseas; dummy companies may ease transfers and devalue renminbi.

Revisiting the Economics of Europe's Refugee Tragedy
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Sep 10, 2015
At best, the quota proposal will provide only short-term relief.

The World When the Fed Raises Rates
Martin Feldkircher, Florian Huber and Isabella Moder (Project Syndicate) Sep 10, 2015
This year, for the first time since 2007, every advanced economy in the world is growing – including America’s. And that means that the Federal Reserve, fearful of asset bubbles, will at some point decide that US interest rates must rise. That may be good for the US economy, but what will it mean for the rest of the world?

Realizing the Potential of the Digital Economy
Irving Wladawsky-Berger (Pieria) Sep 10, 2015
While the digital economy promises to help us improve the lives of people around the world, realizing its potential is one of the most important and exciting challenges of the 21st century.

The Business Case for Europe’s Refugees
Lucy P. Marcus (Project Syndicate) Sep 10, 2015
While governments, charities, and donor organizations debate how European countries will share responsibility for the refugees flooding across their borders, European business has been strangely silent. But industry leaders in all sectors owe it to themselves to be involved from the start in managing the influx.

Economists vs. Economics
Dani Rodrik (Project Syndicate) Sep 10, 2015
Criticism of economics – for hubris, neglect of social goals beyond incomes, excessive attention to formal techniques, or failure to predict major developments such as financial crises – has usually come from outsiders, or from a heterodox fringe. But lately it seems that even the field’s leaders are unhappy.

The dark side of foreign exchange liquidity
Nina Karnaukh, Angelo Ranaldo and Paul Söderlind (VoxEU) Sep 10, 2015
Understanding foreign exchange markets is key to understanding the global financial system. Yet, a clear understanding of why and how foreign exchange illiquidity materialises is still missing. This column suggests that foreign exchange liquidity can be impaired in times of flight to quality and higher global risk, and that commonality increases in distressed markets.

What do they want?
Claire Melamed (Aeon) Sep 10, 2015
What would happen if the aid industry started collecting data on how the people it serves actually feel about their lives?

Containing maturity mismatch
Charles A.E. Goodhart and Enrico Perotti (VoxEU)I> Sep 11, 2015
In the last century, real estate funding by banks grew steadily. This column argues that the unprecedented expansion of banking in mortgage lending resulted in a high degree of maturity mismatch. The solution to this problem should focus on greater maturity matching, and not using insured deposits. One avenue to do so is by securitising mortgages with little maturity transformation. Another is to create intermediaries providing mortgage loans where the lender shares in the appreciation, while assuming some risk against the occasional bust.

Japan’s Economy, Crippled by Caution
Paul Krugman (NYT) Sep 11, 2015
Respectability creates a trap for policy makers.

Don’t blame Europe for the refugee crisis
Martin Schulz (WP) Sep 10, 2015
E.U. institutions have shown readiness to act, but some member states have resisted acting together. Read full article »

After the Greek Crisis, Euro Elites Dream of a Unified Euro State
Ryan McMaken (Mises Daily) Sep 11, 2015
Following the July 5 “no” vote in Greece against the terms of the negotiated bailout, European elites swore they would no longer negotiate:

Truly a New Economic Order
Uwe Bott (Globalist) Sep 11, 2015
How to operate in a world shaped by a cost crash and a demand lull?

Analyzing the Odds of a Fed Rate Increase
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Sep 11, 2015
The central bank's decision is clouded by some unforeseen consequences.

Is Today's Volatility an Echo of 1987?
A. Gary Shilling (Bloomberg View) Sep 11, 2015
Similar price swings led to low liquidity just before Black Monday.

Refugee Quota Is Just a First Step
Bloomberg View Sep 11, 2015
The EU must address the causes behind the migrants' rush to Europe.

Greece, the World's Best Investment. No Joke.
Matthew A. Winkler (Bloomberg View) Sep 11, 2015
Since Syriza was elected, nothing's performed better than Greek debt.

Saudis Are Winning the War on Shale
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Sep 11, 2015
They're teaching the market a lesson about U.S. production.

China’s Forex Follies
Barry Eichengreen (Project Syndicate) Sep 11, 2015
China 2% devaluation of its currency last month was no earth-shattering event, but financial markets responded as if a meteorite had struck them. The negative reaction is no mystery: China’s devaluation was a textbook example of how not to conduct exchange-rate policy.

Cereals, appropriability, and hierarchy
Joram Mayshar, Omer Moav, Zvika Neeman & Luigi Pascali (VoxEU) Sep 11, 2015
Conventional theory suggests that h ierarchy and state institutions emerged due to increased productivity following the Neolithic transition to farming. This column argues that these social developments were a result of an increase in the ability of both robbers and the emergent elite to appropriate crops. Hierarchy and state institutions developed, therefore, only in regions where appropriable cereal crops had sufficient productivity advantage over non-appropriable roots and tubers.

Are Western Values Losing Their Sway?
Steven Erlanger (NYT) Sep 12, 2015
The global embrace of liberal democracy is far from inevitable.

Business in China
Economist Sep 12, 2015
If the economic miracle is to continue, officials must give the private sector more freedom. We publish a 14-page special report on corporate China

Many unhappy returns
Economist Sep 12, 2015
High valuations should give investors pause.

A brief history of rate rises: Tightening pains
Economist Sep 12, 2015
The Fed faces some disturbing precedents.

Animating Europe’s capital markets: Vision and reality
Economist Sep 12, 2015
Creating American-style capital markets in Europe will be hard.

Mobile money, trade credit, and economic development
Thorsten Beck, Haki Pamuk, Ravindra Ramrattan and Burak Uras (VoxEU) Sep 12, 2015
The focus of the financial inclusion debate has been mainly on credit and savings services. This column provides evidence that more effective payment systems can help ease small businesses’ access to external finance, ultimately resulting in faster economic growth. The success story of M-PESA in Kenya shows that mobile money technology not only increases financial inclusion of households, but also alleviates small firms’ financing constraints.

Redemption at last for banks?
Oliver Ralph and Laura Noonan (FT) Sep 13, 2015
Tighter monetary policy is supposed to boost lenders, but does it?

Money-making scheme must be made of stronger stuff
Wolfgang Munhau (FT) Sep 13, 2015
Most of the macroeconomic effect of QE has already occurred.

The black gold beneath the surface of pop
Ludovic Hunter-Tilney (FT) Sep 13, 2015
Since its discovery, oil has cast a spell over the human imagination.

Kirchner's Exit Revives Argentine Hope
Mary Anastasia O'Grady (WSJ) Sep 13, 2015
Despite the economic storms ahead, there is the possibility that repression could fade.

A scarcity of economic growth
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Sep 13, 2015
When governments cater to interest groups and undermine productivity. Read full article »

Germany’s Immigration Challenge
Daniel Stelter (Globalist) Sep 13, 2015
We have to make an honest assessment of costs and benefits of the migration crisis.

Jokowi takes his first shot at economic reform
Chris Manning (EAF) Sep 13, 2015
Indonesian President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) has announced a comprehensive package of reforms aimed at reducing inflation and stabilising the exchange rate, stimulating demand through ‘deregulation’ and direct support, with a special focus on creating more jobs in small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and across urban and rural communities

Why Asia Shouldn't Fear the Fed
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Sep 13, 2015
A tightening cycle might actually help the region decouple from China.

Where the Euro Goes From Here
Clive Crook (Bloomberg View) Sep 13, 2015
The legacy of the recent economic crisis makes a tough problem nearly insoluble.

Eastern Europe’s Crisis of Shame
Jan T. Gross (Project Syndicate) Sep 13, 2015
As thousands of refugees pour into Europe to escape the horrors of war, Eastern Europeans have revealed themselves to be intolerant, illiberal, xenophobic, and incapable of remembering the spirit of solidarity that carried them to freedom a quarter-century ago. The root cause is to be found in World War II and its aftermath.

Crises that threaten to unravel the EU
Gideon Rachman (FT) Sep 14, 2015
Refugee issue has overshadowed the euro, but the single currency’s problems have not gone away.

A flawed way to fund infrastructure
Keith Burnett (FT) Sep 14, 2015
A centrally planned economy for some leaders is a blight on freedom.

Fed faces familiar rate rise dilemma
Scott Minerd (FT) Sep 14, 2015
Previous delays led to inflated asset prices and recessions.

Banking on German growth
Patrick Jenkins (FT) Sep 14, 2015
Ambitious foreign lenders face tough domestic and regulatory challenges.

How Congress Can Help Puerto Rico
Clayton P. Gilette and David A. Skeel Jr (NYT) Sep 14, 2015
Bankruptcy should be allowed for the island’s municipalities.

Germany: A 10-Point Plan to Deal With the Immigration Challenge
Daniel Stelter (Globalist) Sep 14, 2015
What does it take to make sure that the immigrants now arriving are integrated in a sustainable manner?

The 1 Million Migrant March on Germany
Lara Jakes (FP) Sep 14, 2015
Berlin is facing an estimated wave of 1 million migrants this year -- but is finding little sympathy from its European Union neighbors.

Europe Discovers a New Geography
Robert D. Kaplan (Bloomberg View) Sep 14, 2015
The EU hoped to export stability. Instead it is being destabilized by its neighbors.

Thailand's Future Doesn't Lie in the Past
William Pesek (Bloomberg View) Sep 14, 2015
A return to populism won't restore the economy to long-term growth.

The Truth About the Migrant Crisis
Michael S. Teitelbaum (FA) Sep 14, 2015
Tragic choices, moral hazards, and potential solutions.

Regulation and fund performance: New evidence
Robert Kosowski and Juha Joenvaara (VoxEU) Sep 14, 2015
In the aftermath of the Global Crisis, there have been many regulatory initiatives targeting financial institutions, especially investment funds. This column sheds light on the costs and benefits of increased financial regulation. The findings show that the indirect cost of regulation of alternative funds such as UCITS is around 2% per annum in terms of risk-adjusted returns. Policymakers should therefore carefully consider the effect of higher liquidity requirements on the returns that alternative investment funds can generate.

Red flags are burning issue for China plc
Jennifer Hughes (FT) Sep 15, 2015
Moody’s is appealing fine for raising corporate accounting fears.

A new Chinese export — recession risk
Martin Wolf (FT) Sep 15, 2015
Beijing will let its currency go rather than continue to use reserves, some of which are highly illiquid.

Perils of mandatory EU migrant quotas
Jacek Rostowski (FT) Sep 15, 2015
Refugees who want a better future look to Germany not Hungary or Poland.

BIS breathes life into rate rise debate
John Plender (FT) Sep 15, 2015
Risks in raising rates still look greater than risks in staying put.

Raising Rates Too Soon: The Mistake Central Banks Keep Making
Neil Irwin (NYT) Sep 15, 2015
Can looking at central bankers’ blunders from the recent past offer any useful guidance for what the Fed ought to do this week? It’s worth hoping.

Can Brazil Turn Its Economy Around?
Felipe Monteiro (Knowledge@Wharton) Sep 15, 2015
Brazil's recent credit rating downgrade is a wakeup call for the country to fix its economy. How can it restore confidence among investors and lenders?

Why the Fed Should Start Tightening
Michael Heise (Globalist) Sep 15, 2015
If the Fed wants to wait for economic circumstances that are perfectly balanced for a rate rise, that day might never come.

A United States of Europe? Good Luck
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Sep 15, 2015
Europe's leaders may be ready for a stronger union. The public isn't.

Why the Fed Should Raise Rates Now
Brad Brooks (Bloomberg View) Sep 15, 2015
It would limit asset bubbles.

'Noflation' and the Limits of Quantitative Easing
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Sep 15, 2015
Central bankers seem powerless to goose consumer prices.

Bottled Risk
Brahma Chellaney (Project Syndicate) Sep 15, 2015
Over the last 15 years, the bottled-water industry has experienced explosive growth, which shows no sign of slowing. This has been a disaster for the environment and the world’s poor.

Curbing Chinese Corruption
Paolo Mauro (Project Syndicate) Sep 15, 2015
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption drive is prompting a reconsideration of the impact of graft on the country's economy. In view of China's economic transformation and deeper integration in the world economy, curbing corruption has now become necessary to sustain high economic growth.

Unsustainable Development Goals
Bjørn Lomborg (Project Syndicate) Sep 15, 2015
The world's heads of state are expected to smile for the cameras and sign on the dotted line when they convene at the UN later this month to adopt the Sustainable Development Goals, which will guide global development spending – some $2.5 trillion – until 2030. Unfortunately, they will be signing away the opportunity of a generation.

A Growth Strategy for Europe
Hans-Helmut Kotz, Eric Labaye and Sven Smit (Project Syndicate) Sep 15, 2015
With the third Greek loan program almost in place, it is time for European leaders to start focusing on the future. That means embarking on a broad economic-reform program that combines growth-enhancing supply-side reforms and demand-side efforts to support investment and job creation.

The EU's Migration Diversion
Sebastian Elischer (FA) Sep 15, 2015
Outsourcing the refugee crisis.

Oil prices, inflation expectations, and monetary policy
Nathan Sussman & Osnat Zohar (VoxEU) Sep 16, 2015
The 2014 decline in oil prices lowered short-run inflation. Before the Global Crisis, the medium-term correlation between oil prices and inflation was weak, but it has become much stronger since the onset of the Crisis. This column suggests that following the onset of the Crisis, inflation expectations reacted quite strongly to global demand conditions and oil supply shocks. The public’s belief in the ability of monetary authorities to stabilise inflation at the medium-term horizon has deteriorated.

Delivering the Jack Ma economy
Charles Clover (FT) Sep 16, 2015
Low-paid couriers oil the wheels of ecommerce and boost Beijing’s efforts to rebalance the economy Read more >>

Merkel manages Europe’s migrant crisis
Nikolaus Blome (FT) Sep 16, 2015
Her reintroduction of border controls looks like pragmatism not prejudice.

China’s economic facts and fakes
David Pilling (FT) Sep 16, 2015
While most economies are subject to booms and busts, this one has seemed to sail on regardless.

Why finance is new oil supply arbiter
Ed Morse (FT) Sep 16, 2015
Capital intensive US shale is main focus for output declines.

Africa Vs. Asia: The Population Dimension
Globalist Sep 16, 2015
Today, Africa’s population is one-quarter the size of Asia’s. By 2100, it will be just 10% smaller.

Brazil's Downgrade
Monica de Bolle (PIIE) Sep 16, 2015
Standard & Poor's brutal downgrade of Brazil's sovereign credit rating on September 9 is testament to the country's untenable situation. Political gridlock and the lack of a coherent fiscal strategy were the basis for the downgrade from investment to speculative grade, accompanied by a negative outlook that clearly underscores lack of confidence over the government's ability to deliver on its fiscal consolidation promises made earlier this year.

Europe's Best Hope for Greece?
Bloomberg View Sep 16, 2015
Ahead of elections, former Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has support in Paris and Berlin.

Cutting Through the Rate-Hike Hype
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Sep 16, 2015
There are reasons to hope for a delay, but much of the concern is overstated.

The 'Flash Boys' Exchange Is Growing Up
Matt Levine (Bloomberg View) Sep 16, 2015
It's hard to be a knight in shining armor if you're running a dark pool.

Oh, No! Japan Gets Downgraded. Oh, Wait.
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Sep 16, 2015
The ratings cut represents the past, not the future.

The Age of Bobby Fischer
Kenneth Rogoff (Project Syndicate) Sep 16, 2015
The new Hollywood movie “Pawn Sacrifice” depicts the Cold War match between the tormented chess prodigy and Russian world champion Boris Spassky. It also makes one wonder whether a creative genius like Fischer, deeply troubled yet supremely functional at the chessboard, would be able to exist in today’s unforgiving online world.

Securing a Sustainable Future
Gro Harlem Brundtland and Graça Machel (Project Syndicate) Sep 16, 2015
The world is at a crossroads, and much of the progress made in fighting poverty and promoting social justice risks vanishing into thin air. If sustainable development is to be achieved, world leaders must agree to minimize climate change.

A Eurasian Solution for Europe’s Crises
Sergei Karaganov (Project Syndicate) Sep 16, 2015
What matters in resolving today’s conflicts between Russia and the West, be they active or supposedly “frozen,” is to build a broader framework of cooperation between the EU and what might be called Greater Eurasia. The remaining question in such a scenario concerns the role of the US.

Oil prices, inflation expectations, and monetary policy
Nathan Sussman and Osnat Zohar (VoxEU) Sep 16, 2015
The 2014 decline in oil prices lowered short-run inflation. Before the Global Crisis, the medium-term correlation between oil prices and inflation was weak, but it has become much stronger since the onset of the Crisis. This column suggests that following the onset of the Crisis, inflation expectations reacted quite strongly to global demand conditions and oil supply shocks. The public’s belief in the ability of monetary authorities to stabilise inflation at the medium-term horizon has deteriorated.

Renminbi may be risk that wags the tail
Dan McCrum (FT) Sep 17, 2015
‘Tail risk’ of China currency falls would rattle investors.

Why Yellen Blinked on Interest Rates
Neil Irwin (NYT) Sep 17, 2015
The decision to hold off suggests the Fed wants a little more evidence that the economy is truly on the mend.

Dear Donald Trump: China, Japan and Mexico are not “killing us”
Fareed Zakaria (WP) Sep 17, 2015
America occupies a dominant position on the global economic landscape. Read full article »

European Commission Releases Draft Proposal on TTIP Investment Court
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 30 Sep 17, 2015
The European Commission released on Wednesday a long-awaited draft proposal on a possible "investment court system," one that it says could replace the controversial investor-state dispute settlement system in all current and future investment negotiations – starting with the planned Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP).

Nigeria Vs. North America: Role Reversal
Globalist Sep 17, 2015
North America’s population is currently twice as large as Nigeria’s. By 2100, it will be the other way around.

The Story Behind the Emerging-Market Meltdown
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Sep 17, 2015
In a word, China.

China’s woes could derail Abenomics
Michel Krmek (Nikkei Asian Review/Bruegel) Sep 17, 2015
Just as Japanese growth was starting to pick up from the repercussions of last year’s consumption tax hike, a new shock has hit the economy: China’s economic woes.

Can Trade Keep Iran in Line?
Jamsheed K. Choksy and Carol E. B. Choksy (YaleGlobal) Sep 17, 2015
Trade delegations rush to Iran; if its nuclear ambitions are not contained, restoring sanctions won't be easy

Fraud, Fools, and Financial Markets
Robert J. Shiller (Project Syndicate) Sep 17, 2015
Adam Smith famously wrote of the “invisible hand,” by which individuals’ pursuit of self-interest in free, competitive markets advances the interest of society as a whole. But, because we can be manipulated, deceived, or even just passively tempted, free markets also persuade us to buy things that are good neither for us nor for society.

A happy state
Benjamin Radcliff (Aeon) Sep 17, 2015
Why is the welfare state under attack when happiness economics shows it is the system most conducive to human wellbeing?

The global productivity slump: Common and country-specific factors
Barry Eichengreen, Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin (VoxEU) Sep 17, 2015
Productivity growth is slowing down around the world. The question is what lies behind this phenomenon and if it can be reversed. This column takes a historic perspective on total factor productivity growth slowdowns to suggest that global factors may play a role in the problem. Factors that are negatively associated with TFP slumps include educational attainment, political development, and high levels of investment. But there is no guarantee that avoiding these factors will necessarily prevent TFP slumps.

Europe's Dangerous Ambivalence
Nikos Konstandaras (NYT) Sep 18, 2015
It's election time again in Greece, where the continuing economic crisis and the influx of refugees reflect the same fundamental structural paradox.

Republican Job Killers and the Export-Import Bank
Joe Nocera (NYT) Sep 18, 2015
Top chief executives sound off against the effort to kill the Ex-Im Bank.

Greece's Paper Trail Eventually Leads to Reform
Megan McArdle (Bloomberg View) Sep 18, 2015
The humble receipt can help end tax evasion and spread the tax burden.

Greek Voters Have a Choice, But Not Much of One
Megan McArdle (Bloomberg View) Sep 18, 2015
The debt-relief deal is already set. The winning party must implement it.

The Fed Should Raise Its Inflation Target
Clive Crook (Bloomberg View) Sep 18, 2015
If they're expecting years of below-target inflation, why do Fed members still plan to raise rates this year?

Ready for a US Rate Hike?
Shang-Jin Wei (Project Syndicate) Sep 18, 2015
The possibility that the US Federal Reserve could raise interest rates for the first time in a decade has sent jitters across emerging markets. Governments in the developing world would be wise to worry less about rate changes in the US and more about policy changes they can make that would boost economic resilience at home.

The Data Revolution for Sustainable Development
Jeffrey D. Sachs, Shaida Badiee, Robert Chen and Enrico Giovannini (Project Syndicate) Sep 18, 2015
There is growing recognition that the success of the Sustainable Development Goals, which will be adopted at a special UN summit this month, will depend on the ability of governments, businesses, and civil society to track progress and make informed decisions. The key is to use data more effectively.

The Roots of German Openness
Dominique Moisi (Project Syndicate) Sep 18, 2015
Germany – a country that, less than a century ago, was a source of huge numbers of refugees – has become the most desired destination for those fleeing the Middle East and Africa, and a moral compass for the rest of Europe. How did the country move so rapidly from darkness to light?

Is 70 Too Old for the UN?
Shashi Tharoor (Project Syndicate) Sep 18, 2015
As world leaders prepare to gather at the UN in New York to ratify the new Sustainable Development Goals and commemorate the UN’s 70th anniversary, a fundamental question has become inescapable. In the face of growing global disorder, does the UN have a future?

Fiscal tightening and economic growth – exploring cross-country correlations
Paolo Mauro and Jan Zilinsky (VoxEU) Sep 18, 2015
The public narrative on austerity is shaped by simple scatter plots purporting to portray the large negative impact of fiscal ‘austerity’ on economic growth. This column argues that, while recognising concerns about causality, economists should systematically explore correlations and multiple regressions, and test their robustness. The results reveal a mixed picture, lending partial support to the notion that fiscal choices and output growth are empirically associated.

Economic resilience: A new set of vulnerability indicators for OECD countries and evidence of their usefulness
Aida Caldera, Mikkel Hermansen and Oliver Röhn (VoxEU) Sep 19, 2015
The Global Crisis and its high costs have revived interest in early warning indicators of economic risks. This column presents a new set of indicators to detect vulnerabilities and assess country-specific risks of suffering a crisis. The empirical evidence confirms the usefulness of the vulnerability indicators in warning of severe recessions and crises in OECD countries. But indicators are no silver bullet and should be complemented with other monitoring tools, including expert judgement.

China in Its Labyrinth
Angel Ubide (PIIE/El Pais) Sep 20, 2015
A few weeks ago, at a conference in Beijing, a friend told me that one of the most popular Chinese sayings is that that the ignorant are not afraid of anything. The evolution of the Chinese economy in recent decades exemplifies this saying. After the terrible oppression of the Cultural Revolution, the Chinese people opened up to capitalism without knowing how it worked. The basis of capitalism—private entrepreneurship—requires ignorance, since the probability of success of a new business is well below 50 percent. If entrepreneurs understood this probability they would never launch any venture.

Europe's Hungary Problem
R. Daniel Kelemen (FA) Sep 20, 2015
Viktor Orban flouts the union.

Perplexing failure of EU’s centre-left
Wolfgang Munchau (FT) Sep 21, 2015
Ultimate crisis of global capitalism was delivered on a plate and they did not know what to do.

Unbearable lightness of leaving Greece
Iliana Magra (FT) Sep 21, 2015
EU’s biggest brain drain is hard to watch and no more comfortable to be part of.

Insurance deals start to make less sense
Oliver Ralph (FT) Sep 21, 2015
Despite being driven by different trends, M&As are looking either expensive or strategically unsound Read more >>

Japan: End of the rice age
Leo Lewis (FT) Sep 21, 2015
As the nation eats less rice, can it afford subsidies that have kept powerful farmers in business?

Nigeria needs a new policy on oil
Kingsley Moghalu (FT) Sep 21, 2015
Leaders have concentrated on rewarding their supporters not the people.

The Rage of the Bankers
Paul Krugman (NYT) Sep 21, 2015
The truth about low interest rates, and why the arguments against leaving them alone seem to keep changing.

Why a 'Brexit' Looms Large
Matthew J. Goodwin (NYT) Sep 21, 2015
For decades, there's been a grudging consensus for Britain's membership in the European Union. Now it's broken.

China Must Stick to the Path of Economic Reform
Jacob J. Lew (WSJ) Sep 21, 2015
President Xi Jinping’s visit to the U.S. this week is the right time to reaffirm his country’s commitments.

When Will Russia-China Trade Hit the $100 Billion Mark?
Simeon Djankov (PIIE) Sep 21, 2015
In June 2011, at a meeting in Moscow, Russian and Chinese presidents Dmitry Medvedev and Hu Jintao set targets of achieving $100 billion in bilateral trade by 2015 and $200 billion by 2020. Initially, the two countries were on track to meet these goals. More recently, this task has become impossible, because of falling energy prices, currency devaluations, and Western sanctions on some Russian industries.

A Greek Election Result that Signals the End of the Euro Crisis
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE) Sep 21, 2015
Greek voters delivered a resounding victory to Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and his Syriza party on September 20, despite a record low voter turnout of 55 percent. Syriza's 35.5 percent of the vote replicated its achievement in January 2015. Compounding his victory was the failure of the leftwing breakaway Popular Unity party under former energy minister Panagiotis Lafazanis to cross the threshold for parliamentary representation (3 percent). At age 41, Tsipras looks set to dominate Greek politics for the foreseeable future. The additional inability to exploit Syriza's eight months of failure and mount a comeback by New Democracy and Panhellenic Socialists (PASOK)—the two traditional Greek parties of power—highlights the desire of Greeks to break with the past.

A Glimmer of Hope in Greece
Mark Whitehouse (Bloomberg View) Sep 21, 2015
For the first time this year, people are bringing money into the country.

Greek Elections Are an Opportunity for Europe
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Sep 21, 2015
Debt forgiveness would bolster the new Tsipras government.

Refugees and Reform in Europe
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Project Syndicate) Sep 21, 2015
Europe’s refugee crisis is a historic challenge that offers historic opportunities. The question is whether Europe’s politicians – who have failed to deliver on far less complicated issues over which they had a lot more control – can seize the moment.

E Pluribus Europe?
Kemal Dervis (Project Syndicate) Sep 21, 2015
Europe’s economic crises of the last half-decade have fueled a deep split between north and south, and now the migrant crisis is creating an east-west divide, while the rift between Britain and the continent is deepening. But, paradoxical as it may seem, when it comes to EU cohesion, more cleavages are better.

Bridging the Transatlantic Digital Divide
Viviane Reding (Project Syndicate) Sep 21, 2015
The day after the US and the EU signed the so-called Umbrella Agreement strengthening data privacy, the US Justice Department argued in federal court that US authorities should be granted unlimited access to data located abroad, including in Europe. This dangerous breach of trust is likely to be self-defeating.

Cheers to the Taxman
Alex Thier (FA) Sep 21, 2015
Why taxes are better than aid.

Can We Rely on Market-Based Inflation Forecasts?
Michael D. Bauer and Erin McCarthy (FRBSF Economic Letter) Sep 21, 2015
A substantial decline in market-based measures of inflation expectations has raised concerns about low future inflation. An important question to address is whether the forecasts based on market information are as accurate as alternative forecasting methods. Compared against surveys of professional forecasters and other simple constant measurement tools, market-based inflation expectations are poor predictors of future inflation. This suggests that these measures contain little forward-looking information about future inflation.

Signs point to deepening China distress
Henny Sender (FT) Sep 22, 2015
Fed rate decision will help emerging markets but not revive world growth.

Central banks have made the rich richer
Paul Marshall (FT) Sep 22, 2015
All of us who work in finance owe a debt to quantitative easing.

The mystery of vanishing pounds and euros
John Kay (FT) Sep 22, 2015
Where has all this money gone? Certainly not into your wallet or mine.

Stressed bank loans test India’s ambitions
James Crabtree (FT) Sep 22, 2015
Delhi is putting off the day when it will have to come clean on a dirty statistical secret.

What Happened to South African Democracy
Kenan Malik (NYT) Sep 22, 2015
Thanks to a corrupt political elite, life for millions of people is no better than it was under apartheid.

Stop Propping Up Fossil Fuels
Bloomberg View Sep 22, 2015
OECD countries spent more on subsidies in 2014 than they did a decade ago. Why?

UN Reviews Development Goals, But Again Ignores Population Growth
Joseph Chamie (YaleGlobal) Sep 22, 2015
UN sustainability goals should not overlook population growth centered in the poor, least developed countries.

Central Banker Sees the Future of Money in Bitcoin
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Sep 22, 2015
Maybe digital currencies can solve the Zero Lower Bound problem?

Why the Fed Buried Monetarism
Anatole Kaletsky (Project Syndicate) Sep 22, 2015
The Federal Reserve’s decision to delay an increase in US interest rates should have come as no surprise to anyone who has been paying attention to Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s comments. So why did the markets and media behave as if the Fed’s action (or, more precisely, inaction) was unexpected?

Capitalism and Social Issues in the 21st Century
Irving Wladawsky-Berger (Pieria) Sep 22, 2015
Viewing the role of business as the single-minded pursuit of profits and shareholder returns feels not only simplistic but contrary to what good capitalism should be all about.

We Should Not Be Afraid
Angel Gurría (Project Syndicate) Sep 22, 2015
By the end of this year, the EU will have more than one million asylum-seekers. But, while Europeans have no reason to be afraid, the response of Europe’s governments, in all but a handful of cases, has been tentative, at best: acknowledging the need to do more, while fearing the implications.

Growing Out of Inequality
Zia Qureshi (Project Syndicate) Sep 22, 2015
Income inequality has been increasing in most major economies – and in many of them, it has been increasing significantly. But the typical approach to tackling the problem – redistributive tax-and-transfer fiscal policies – can be controversial and divisive, owing to perceived tradeoffs between economic growth and greater equality.

Europe’s Bad Example
Peter Sutherland (Project Syndicate) Sep 22, 2015
The consequences of Europe’s failure to mount an effective response to the refugee crisis continue to grow, with hundreds of thousands having suffered unnecessarily and bitter divisions jeopardizing the EU's border-free Schengen Area. Perhaps worst of all, Europe's paralysis has given the rest of the world an excuse for inaction.

Abolish cash and you invite tyranny
David Pilling (FT) Sep 23, 2015
Andy Haldane’s call to get rid of the money in our wallets has an unfortunate echo of Maoist China.

Xi must yield power to the private sector
Chris Giles (FT) Sep 23, 2015
If he was clamping down politically to prepare for economic liberalisation it has not happened.

Fed must stop dithering and take action
Danielle DiMartino Booth (FT) Sep 23, 2015
Increasing distortions of low rates threaten to collapse into crisis.

Earth’s poor set to swell as World Bank moves poverty line
Shawn Donnan (FT) Sep 23, 2015
The World Bank is to make the most dramatic change to its global poverty line for 25 years — raising its measure by a half to about $1.90 per day — in a move likely to swell the statistical ranks of the world’s poor by tens of millions.

Chinese Spillovers
Paul Krugman (NYT) Sep 23, 2015
China is clearly in economic trouble. But how worried should we be about spillovers from China’s woes to the rest of the world economy?

How the Birth Dearth Saps Economic Growth
Ruchir Sharma (WSJ) Sep 23, 2015
Worries about migrants miss that to avoid decline, Europe and the U.S. need many more people.

China’s Japan-bashing
John West (Globalist) Sep 23, 2015
Is there any hope that China and Japan could bury the hatchet and have friendly relations?

The Agony and the Exodus
Robert Skidelsky (Project Syndicate) Sep 23, 2015
The West cannot or will not absorb refugees in the numbers needed, and it has no solution to the problem of failed states. This means that, apart from doling out humanitarian aid to those in refugee camps, it has no policy at all.

Getting Universal Education Right
Steven J. Klees (Project Syndicate) Sep 23, 2015
The international community has been pledging to attain universal primary education since the 1960s, and it is doing so again by including this target in the Sustainable Development Goals. But, unless new resources are made available, the world is likely to fail yet again.

Containing China’s Slowdown
Lee Jong-Wha (Project Syndicate) Sep 23, 2015
Pundits love debating the Chinese economy’s growth prospects, and nowadays the pessimists are gaining the upper hand. But many are basing their predictions on other economies’ experiences, whereas China has been breaking the mold on economic growth for the last three decades.

Dispelling three myths on economics in Germany
Michael Burda (VoxEU) Sep 23, 2015
Many analysts believe that German economists hold a very different view of macroeconomics. This column presents a personal view why this belief is wrong. The fact that Europe still consists of sovereign nations and that most Europeans still want to keep it that way informs much of what happens inside German economists' heads.

Dealing with the demise of a supercycle
Daniel Yergin (FT) Sep 24, 2015
Producers face austerity as well as battles over budget and debt.

Science of happiness is an ancient art
Anjana Ahuja (FT) Sep 24, 2015
Contentment stems not from material wealth but from relationships.

Sharing economy is a Wall Street playground
Gillian Tett (FT) Sep 24, 2015
Hedge funds and banks are repackaging P2P loans and lending via these platforms.

Fed faces quandary as share gloom deepens
Michael Mackenzie (FT) Sep 24, 2015
Further market volatility will only complicate the desire to nudge rates upwards.

Sharp Drop in Currency Adds to Growing List of Woes in Brazil
Vinod Sreeharsha (NYT) Sep 24, 2015
The weakness in the real is causing companies to delay plans, and the market for initial public offerings has been effectively frozen.

Beijing's New World Order
WSJ Sep 24, 2015
China’s aggression requires a more forceful American response.

WTO Members Tussle Over Size and Shape of Nairobi Package
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 31 Sep 24, 2015
With WTO members still divided on farm subsidies and market access issues, Director-General Roberto Azevêdo last week called for negotiators to start focusing their efforts on "the most promising issues" for the global trade body’s upcoming ministerial conference in Nairobi, Kenya this December.

TPP Countries Eye Potential Chief Negotiators' Meeting as Elections Loom
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 31 Sep 24, 2015
The 12 countries negotiating the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Agreement are reportedly considering holding high-level talks next week in the US city of Atlanta, as the impending elections in some key players threaten to complicate the long-term timeline for the trade deal.

EU, US Trade Chiefs Pledge to Speed Up TTIP Talks
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 31 Sep 24, 2015
The top trade officials from the EU and US agreed to ramp up the pace of bilateral negotiations for a wide-reaching trade and investment deal, following a "political stocktaking" meeting expected to set the tone of the talks through the rest of the year.

The Emerging-Markets Bellwether From Peoria
Justin Fox (Bloomberg View) Sep 24, 2015
Caterpillar's woes send a message about construction and commodities.

Is ASEAN Losing Its Way?
Amitav Acharya (YaleGlobal) Sep 24, 2015
Fragmented ASEAN balks at taking a position on China’s creeping expansionism in the South China Sea.

The Thucydides Trap: Are the U.S. and China Headed for War?
Graham Allison (Atlantic) Sep 24, 2015
In 12 of 16 past cases in which a rising power has confronted a ruling power, the result has been bloodshed.

China's 'Silk Road' Initiative Is at Risk of Failure
Moritz Rudolf (Diplomat) Sep 24, 2015
China’s “Silk Road PR” is in full swing, but the reality on the ground is different than the rhetoric.

The Short Asian Century?
Yuriko Koike (Project Syndicate) Sep 24, 2015
A little over a decade ago, people began to speculate about an emerging “Asian century.” But with China’s economy in turmoil and key East Asian “tiger” economies like Malaysia and Thailand floundering, the Asian century could come to a premature end.

GMOs and Junk Science
Henry I. Miller and Kavin Senapathy (Project Syndicate) Sep 24, 2015
In today’s media landscape, the scientific method should serve as a touchstone of reality. But scientists occasionally “go rogue,” forsaking the scientific method to produce propaganda and sow fear in a public that lacks expertise but is hungry for information.

China in the Debt-Deflation Trap
Andrew Sheng and Xiao Geng (Project Syndicate) Sep 24, 2015
In the wake of a global stock market sell-off triggered by economic turmoil in China, the US Federal Reserve has decided to postpone raising interest rates. And, indeed, China is facing huge challenges, with the risk of a global debt-deflation trap being a major one.

Greek debt remains unsustainable
Jasper Lukkezen (VoxEU) Sep 24, 2015
After 2018, Greece should have market access. This column argues that without further debt relief, this is unlikely to happen. Under reasonable assumptions, its debt ratio will likely not decline, and the financing burden will increase again. Private investors will take these risks into account and will ask for a risk premium that Greece cannot afford in the long run.

Brazil and Turkey show India what not to do
Alan Beattie (FT) Sep 25, 2015
Price is high when politicians meddle with central banks and chip away at a policy building block.

Economic Malays
Economist Sep 25, 2015
Racially motivated scuffles and political demonstrations in Malaysia in recent weeks are the latest of the many difficulties facing its prime minister.

Harnessing the Power of Fiscal Policy to Mitigate Inequality
IMF Survey Sep 25, 2015
The appropriate design of fiscal policies can mitigate income inequality, without hurting growth, or even while increasing it, according to a recently published IMF book, Inequality and Fiscal Policy.

A Non-Circuit Breaker Agenda for Brazil
Monica de Bolle (PIIE) Sep 25, 2015
Mohamed A. El-Erian, one of the world's most respected emerging markets experts, writes that Brazil needs a "circuit breaker" to halt the vicious cycle that has trapped its economy. Brazil's turmoil—a shrinking GDP, soaring public and private debts, high interest rates, a depreciating currency, and a corruption scandal—is attributed by El-Erian (in an op-ed in Bloomberg View>) to adverse self-fulfilling expectations that must be reversed by measures that he does not specify.

Save the World, Turn a Profit
Muhammad A. Yunus (Bloomberg View) Sep 25, 2015
The 'social success note' can lure private money into humanitarian projects.

Yes to Catalan Independence
Carles Boix (Project Syndicate) Sep 25, 2015
Catalonia’s impending regional election amounts to an indirect referendum on independence from Spain. There are several reasons – cultural, social, economic, and most of all political – why the message the referendum sends should be a resounding endorsement of sovereignty.

Demography and the global economy – “continental” drift is well underway
Markus Jaeger (DB Research) Sep 25, 2015
Continental drift is slow, takes place almost imperceptibly and ends up having dramatic effects in the long run. In this, it is very similar to demographic change. Let us begin with a few facts. The world’s population is set to grow from 7.3 bn today to more than 9.7 bn by 2050. By comparison, the world’s population was a mere 2.5 bn in 1950. The regional (continental) demographic balance has been shifting for quite some time. In 1950, four of the ten largest countries were European (Germany, Italy, USSR, UK). Today, only Russia, ironically the country with the most adverse demographics, ranks among the top-10. In 1950, the big European four made up 10% of the world’s population. This figure has dropped to 5% today and will continue to decline for the foreseeable future. The populations of Africa and Asia will continue to increase significantly – and dramatically so in Africa – over the next few decades (chart). Admittedly, the aggregate increase hides significant intra-regional differences (e.g. East versus South Asia).

Emergency liquidity assistance and Greek banks’ bankruptcy
Martin R. Götz, Rainer Haselmann, Jan Pieter Krahnen and Sascha Steffen (VoxEU) Sep 25, 2015
Discussions continue in some circles as to whether the ECB’s emergency liquidity assistance for Greek banks is legitimate. This column assesses the underlying economics of the emergency liquidity assistance programme and the complex interrelationship between the EU, the ECB and the Greek banks. Economists must focus on the political economy of a monetary union with incomplete fiscal union if they are to understand what’s going on with emergency liquidity.

China’s consumers: Doughty but not superhuman
Economist Sep 26, 2015
China’s consumption boom is not enough to succour the world economy.

Central banking: After the hold, be bold
Economist Sep 26, 2015
It will take more than patience to free rich economies from the zero-interest-rate world.

China Economy: Already Larger Than U.S.
Globalist Sep 26, 2015
When will China overtake the United States as the world’s largest economy?

Should You Fear The Robotpocalypse?
John Aziz (Pieria) Sep 26, 2015
The historical record suggests we should assume robots will create more jobs than they destroy until proven otherwise.

Rebuilding the Asylum System
George Soros (Project Syndicate) Sep 26, 2015
European leaders emerged from yet another summit this week, having made only modest progress towards definitively addressing a refugee crisis that has caused enormous human suffering and shaken the EU to its core. The time for partial measures is long past; a comprehensive plan is needed.

The Decadence of the People’s Car
Harold James (Project Syndicate) Sep 26, 2015
The Volkswagen scandal is a useful reminder that corporate wrongdoing is not confined to the banking industry, and that merely levying fines or ramping up regulation is unlikely to solve the problem. Indeed, it is one of the iron laws of corporate physics: Every regulation elicits a proportionate effort to circumvent it.

Foreign entry and domestic innovation
Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Jan Svejnar (VoxEU) Sep 26, 2015
While there is substantial evidence that multinationals are more productive than domestic firms, the evidence on productivity spillovers remains mixed. This column estimates the effects of foreign presence on the innovation of local firms. It suggests that spillovers from foreign firms to domestic firms are limited to domestic firms immediately connected to foreign firms. Requirements for foreign firms to have significant local content may therefore be justified.

Crises push Europe into realm of chaos
Wolfgang Münchau (FT) Sep 27, 2015
The refugee crisis alone will reduce Germany’s financial and political room for manoeuvre.

Active funds underperform ‘inertia index’
Paul Myners (FT) Sep 27, 2015
Measure shows limited worth of managers buying and selling stocks and shares.

Re-Engineering Egypt's Economy
Abdel Fattah El Sisi (WSJ) Sep 27, 2015
Our government is instituting reforms to spur growth and free private businesses to lead the way.

The life-expectancy gap
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Sep 27, 2015
The well-off live longer and draw more benefits. Read full article »

China’s Economy Will Be Larger Than U.S. by 2028
Globalist Sep 27, 2015
Currently, the Chinese economy is just 40% smaller than the U.S. when measured at market exchange rates.

Regulatory arbitrage in action: Evidence from cross-border lending
Dennis Reinhardt & Rhiannon Sowerbutts (VoxEU) Sep 27, 2015
Regulatory arbitrage is an essential feature of modern banking. This column presents new evidence on avoiding macroprudential policies by borrowing from abroad. Domestic non-banks borrow more from abroad after an increase in capital requirements, but not after an increase in lending standards. This is most likely because of differences in the way the two regulations apply, and suggests that we should have strong frameworks for reciprocating capital regulation.

New PM will not solve Australia’s issues
Satyajit Das (FT) Sep 28, 2015
Risk is cycle of commodity booms and debt-driven domestic upswings.

The ideas that divide China and America
Gideon Rachman (FT) Sep 28, 2015
Washington believes in universal values and inevitable progress whereas Beijing does not.

Big oil faces shrinking prospects
Nick Butler (FT) Sep 28, 2015
The Arctic debacle is a salutary reminder that the old business model is reaching its end.

China data: Making the numbers add up
Gabriel Wildau (FT) Sep 28, 2015
Scepticism about the accuracy of the official data has intensified. But what if the underlying figures are reliable?

An Ambitious Development Agenda from the U.N.
NYT Sep 28, 2015
Meeting the United Nations' lofty goals will be tough in a weakened world economy. Still, much can be done with support from industrialized nations.

Bill Gates and the golden age of global aid
Michael Gerson (WP) Sep 28, 2015
The Gates Foundation has joined the ambitious campaign against malaria in Africa.

Not Only China’s Economy May Beat the U.S.’s By 2050.
Globalist Sep 28, 2015
By 2050 it is possible that the U.S. economy will not just be smaller than China’s — but India’s as well.

China's Economy Will Not Be Larger Than U.S. Even By the End of This Century
Globalist Sep 28, 2015
Despite a significant growth differential in China’s favor, the country’s per capita GDP will equal only 42% of the U.S. level by 2050.

Commodity Exporters Facing the Difficult Aftermath of the Boom
IMF Survey Sep 28, 2015
With a weak outlook for commodity prices, particularly for energy and metals, growth in commodity-exporting emerging and developing economies could slow further over the next few years, says a new study.

Exchange Rates Still Matter For Trade
IMF Survey Sep 28, 2015
Exchange rate movements still have sizeable effects on exports and imports, says a new IMF study.

Spain's Brain Drain Is a Eurozone Problem
Jean-Michel Paul (Bloomberg View) Sep 28, 2015
Spain's best workers are leaving, undermining the euro and Spain's economic chances.

Look Out for the Great Trade Stagnation
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Sep 28, 2015
Trade boosts productivity, the key to rising living standards.

A Mandate for Catalonian Autonomy, Not Secession
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Sep 28, 2015
Sunday's election results in Catalonia are not strong enough for secessionists to move quickly toward their ultimate goal, but they are a useful bargaining chip.

Another Year Near Zero?
Mark Whitehouse (Bloomberg View) Sep 28, 2015
Markets are acting as though interest rates will stay low for a while.

Ending the Markets' Short-Term Obsession
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Sep 28, 2015
Only a focus on the bigger picture will curb volatility.

Need Energy? Look to the Sun
Mark Buchanan (Bloomberg View) Sep 28, 2015
Only solar has the potential to meet human needs in the long term.

Toward a Genuine Economic and Monetary Union?
Otmar Issing (Project Syndicate) Sep 28, 2015
With Europe’s current crisis having convinced many that the EU's existing institutional arrangements are unsustainable, many high-level figures have been calling for a move toward political union. But further European integration will not be feasible until trust among the member states has been restored.

Sunlight on Tax Havens
J. Bradford DeLong and Michael M. DeLong (Project Syndicate) Sep 28, 2015
The entire point of tax havens' existence is to conceal the wealth hidden within them. And a new book reveals, as never before, the extent of their role in the global economy – and in impeding efforts to combat growing inequality.

Don’t Fear the IMF
Ricardo Hausmann (Project Syndicate) Sep 28, 2015
The International Monetary Fund is, in many places, the organization everybody loves to hate. But fear of the IMF is not only wrong; it is dangerous for countries with troubled economies that need the Fund's resources and expertise.

The Inexorable Logic of the Sharing Economy
Michael Spence (Project Syndicate) Sep 28, 2015
The Internet-led process of exploiting under-utilized resources – be they physical and financial capital or human capital and talent – is both unstoppable and accelerating. The long-term benefits consist not just in efficiency and productivity gains, but also in much-needed new jobs requiring a broad range of skills.

The Fire Forging Europe
Carl Bildt (Project Syndicate) Sep 28, 2015
European leaders have bitterly disagreed on the best way to handle the large numbers of refugees crossing the Mediterranean, once again sparking talk of crisis in the EU. And yet in today's disagreements could lie the roots of a stronger union.

The Sino-American Codependency Trap
Stephen S. Roach (Project Syndicate) Sep 28, 2015
Trapped in the dynamic of codependency, the US-China relationship has become fraught with friction and finger pointing. Indeed, the just-concluded summit between Barack Obama and Xi Jinping did little to dispel the possibility of a painful rupture in bilateral ties.

China and India: Not So Different
David J. Karl (Asia Sentinel) Sep 28, 2015
The ‘autocratic advantage’ wasn’t all it was cracked up to be.

China’s Rise and the U.S. Trade War With India
Carter Dougherty (FP) Sep 28, 2015
Washington and New Delhi may be natural allies, but that doesn’t mean that they see eye to eye on economic ties.

Low interest rates, capital flows, and declining productivity in South Europe
Gita Gopinath, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Loukas Karabarbounis and Carolina Villegas-Sanchez (VoxEU) Sep 28, 2015
Joining the Eurozone was once a near unquestionably good idea. Now, the costs of joining the monetary union are under close scrutiny. This column takes a slightly different tack, presenting an alternative perspective on how joining the euro has impacted productivity in southern Europe. It turns out that capital wasn’t allocated efficiently across firms after cheap borrowing at low interest rates, impacting total factor productivity.

Net Benefits
Sebastian Mallaby (FA) Sep 28, 2015
How to understand the economic impact of migration.

China pins economy hopes on trains
Henny Sender (FT) Sep 29, 2015
Beijing focuses on railway construction to fuel growth.

Credit and commodities run out of steam
Frederic Neumann (FT) Sep 29, 2015
Reforms essential to achieve productivity gains needed to sustain growth.

A stronger capital markets union for Europe
Jonathan Hill (FT) Sep 29, 2015
No need to disrupt markets that work well in pursuit of theoretical perfection.

Benefits of migration are questionable
Martin Wolf (FT) Sep 29, 2015
Cosmopolitanism is incompatible with our organisation into territorial jurisdictions.

Brazil: In the firing line
Joe Leahy (FT) Sep 29, 2015
President Rousseff faces impeachment in move that could bring recession-hit country to a standstill.

The World Needs to Build on Its Success Against Malaria
NYT Sep 29, 2015
With a global investment strategy, some countries will be able to eradicate the disease.

Market Liquidity Not in Decline, but Prone to Evaporate
IMF Survey Sep 29, 2015
The level of liquidity in financial markets—the ability to buy or sell a large quantity of a financial asset at a low cost in a short time—has not shown a marked decline in most asset classes; however, low interest rates may be masking an erosion of its underlying resilience, according to new research from the International Monetary Fund.

Rise in Emerging Market Corporate Debt Driven by Global Factors
IMF Survey Sep 29, 2015
Debt levels of firms in emerging market economies have risen, particularly in construction, and oil and gas, due to low interest rates in advanced economies, as well as other global factors, according to new research from the International Monetary Fund.

Governments Turn to the UN to Avoid Paying Their Debts
Nicolás Cachanosky (Mises Daily) Sep 29, 2015
Paying back government debt is not the simple matter it is often assumed to be, and repudiation of government debt has its benefits.

In Defense of Derivatives: From Beer to the Financial Crisis
Bruce Tuckman (Cato) Sep 29, 2015
Derivatives provide implicit leverage to businesses, but there are two broad problems with the current approach to regulating derivatives. First, rules that treat derivatives in isolation are unlikely to reduce the overall risk of individual financial firms or the financial system. Second, rules that make derivatives harder to use will reduce derivatives risks, but the reduction will be at the expense of increasing business risks. Policies aimed at holistic risk management, reporting, and supervision would be more successful in reducing systemic risk.

The 2030 agenda for sustainable development has been approved
Homi Kharas (Brookings) Sep 30, 2015
Observations from last weekend’s UN summit on sustainable development.

Greek Banks Expose Europe's Flaws
Bloomberg View Sep 29, 2015
When Europe has to work around its own rules to save Greek banks, that's not OK.

India's Rajan Cuts Deep, But Not Deep Enough
Dhiraj Nayyar (Bloomberg View) Sep 29, 2015
Only more powerful easing will translate to the real economy.

Lower Bond Rating? Buyers Binge
Matthew A. Winkler (Bloomberg View) Sep 29, 2015
Global investors make a mockery of sovereign-debt ratings.

The Limits of the German Promised Land
Hans-Werner Sinn (Project Syndicate) Sep 29, 2015
In order to avert chaos, Germany has no choice but to impose restrictions on the influx of migrants. Doing so will allow Germany to concentrate on the task at hand: providing those granted refugee status the schooling and language lessons they will need to allow them to find employment as quickly as possible.

The Business of Improving Global Health
Jörg Reinhardt (Project Syndicate) Sep 29, 2015
The new Sustainable Development Goals include a vow to reduce premature deaths caused by chronic illnesses such as cancer, heart disease, and diabetes. But the new health-related goals are more ambitious than ever, while, in many ways, the public-health situation has never been more challenging.

The BRICS Fallacy
Ana Palacio (Project Syndicate) Sep 29, 2015
The world’s obsession with the perceived rise and fall of the BRICS reflects a desire to identify the country or bloc that will take over from the US as global leader. But, in searching for the “next big thing,” the world is ignoring the need for the US to continue to engage globally.

The Chinese Economy and Fed Policy
Martin Feldstein (Project Syndicate) Sep 29, 2015
The Federal Reserve should start tightening monetary policy to reduce the risks of financial instability caused by the behavior of investors and lenders in response to the prolonged period of exceptionally low interest rates since the 2008 financial crisis. Events in China are no reason for further delay.

Sustainable Governance Goals
Tony Blair (Project Syndicate) Sep 29, 2015
The Sustainable Development Goals, approved at the UN this week, have the potential to transform the lives of billions of people. But they will succeed only if governments have the wherewithal to create and implement the necessary policies.

Why Finance Can Save the Planet
Jean Pisani-Ferry (Project Syndicate) Sep 29, 2015
Most people hate finance, viewing it as the epitome of irresponsibility and greed. But, even after causing a once-in-a-century recession and unemployment for millions, finance looks indispensable for preventing an even worse catastrophe: climate change.

Jeremy Corbyn’s Necessary Agenda
Mariana Mazzucato (Project Syndicate) Sep 29, 2015
While businesses clearly create wealth, so do workers, public institutions, and civil-society organizations. Indeed, what sets Britain's new Labour Party leader apart is his recognition that wealth creation is a collective process, and that market outcomes are the product of how various “wealth creators” interact.

Measuring the interest premium for past default
Luis AV Catão and Rui C. Mano (VoxEU) Sep 29, 2015
Sovereign governments re-entering capital markets after debt renegotiations pay an interest rate premium for past defaults. This column presents new evidence that suggests earlier studies have underestimated this premium. This is partly due to the narrow credit history indicators used in previous studies as well as the narrow data coverage. Correcting for these problems, a sizeable and persistent default premium emerges, and one which rises on the duration of the default. The new findings are consistent with the view that financial markets help discipline governments and rationalise why governments try hard not to default.

The political economy of liberal democracy
Sharun Mukand and Dani Rodrik (VoxEU) Sep 29, 2015
There are more democracies in the world than non-democracies, but few of the democracies go beyond electoral competition. This column highlights the contrast between electoral democracies and liberal ones, that is, those that protect civil rights in addition to political and property rights. Liberal democracies are rare because the failure to protect minority rights is a common consequence of the emergence of democracy. They are especially uncommon in the developing world, where decolonisation and identity cleavages sparked social mobilisation.

Silicon Valley trip shows Modi delusions
Edward Luce (FT) Sep 30, 2015
Impressive parts of US economy are led by people ‘made in India’, but few show signs of going home.

Credit and commodities run out of steam
Frederic Neumann (FT) Sep 30, 2015
Reforms essential to achieve output gains needed to sustain growth.

Markets: Can they really be tamed?
Robin Wigglesworth (FT) Sep 30, 2015
Computer models designed to help investors navigate turbulence are accused of making things worse.

Vladimir Putin's Guide to World History
Masha Gessen (NYT) Sep 30, 2015
According to his reading, Russia was the key to creating a participatory world order that America abused.

Lagarde Calls for ‘Policy Upgrade’ to Combat Uncertain Global Outlook
IMF Survey Sep 30, 2015
Policymakers will need to strengthen policies to address current challenges and help lead the world economy to recovery, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said in a speech at the Council of the Americas.

Brazil Needs to Abandon Inflation Targeting and Yield to Fiscal Dominance
Monica de Bolle (PIIE) Sep 30, 2015
What happens when efforts to combat inflation collide with government deficits so large that they force the central bank to buy up debt, print money, and thereby drive up inflation? Economists describe this as a collision between inflation targeting and fiscal dominance.

Can Silicon Valley Save the World?
Pankaj Mishra (Bloomberg View) Sep 30, 2015
Techno-utopians need to beware the dangers of 'solutionism.'

High-Speed Trading Firm Deleted Some Code by Accident
Matt Levine (Bloomberg View) Sep 30, 2015
Even the biggest algorithmic trading firms are sometimes befuddled by modern markets.

Europe’s Reality Check
Joschka Fischer (Project Syndicate) Sep 30, 2015
Europe's sense of itself as a safe and secure place disintegrated this summer. The tide of refugees flowing over its borders directly confronted the EU with the harsh realities from which it had appeared to be a sanctuary – realities which only European solidarity can address.

Leaving Our Children Nothing
Johan Rockström (Project Syndicate) Sep 30, 2015
Our generation has a unique opportunity. If we set our minds to it, we could be the first in human history to leave our children nothing: no poverty, no greenhouse-gas emissions, and no biodiversity loss.

The Dead-End of Corbynismo
Andrés Velasco (Project Syndicate) Sep 30, 2015
Latin America has a new export: populist backlash, which first landed on the warm and receptive shores of the Mediterranean, nurturing support for Greece’s Syriza and Spain’s Podemos. Now it has reached the United Kingdom.

Finance and growth – beware the measurement
Thorsten Beck (VoxEU) Sep 30, 2015
The relationship between finance and growth has recently returned to the top of the policy research agenda, with several papers questioning earlier results indicating a positive link. This column suggests a different interpretation of the early findings. While there can be too much finance, as many countries have found out in recent crises, this does not imply that there is too much financial development.