News & Commentary:

Articles/Commentary

The credit bubble, bears and central bankers
Gillian Tett (FT) Oct 1, 2015
What happens when emerging market private money creation slows or goes into reverse?

Painful effects of petrodollar deficit
Dan McCrum (FT) Oct 1, 2015
Proceeds from selling oil that flowed back into the global system underpinned credit boom.

The Most Important Thing, and It's Almost a Secret
Nicholas Kristof (NYT) Oct 1, 2015
Everyone knows about the spread of war and the hopeless intractability of poverty. But everyone is wrong.

Looking for a global growth strategy? Support refugees.
Jim Yong Kim (WP) Oct 1, 2015
Welcoming refugees is the right thing to do both for those who are suffering and for the global economy. Read full column »

TPP Ministers Gather in Atlanta in Renewed Push for Trade Deal
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 32 Oct 1, 2015
Ministers from 12 Pacific Rim countries are in the midst of making another high-stakes push for completing a comprehensive trade deal, with their meetings in the US city of Atlanta currently scheduled to conclude later this week.

UN Members Sign Off on Sustainable Development Agenda
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 32 Oct 1, 2015
The 193 member states of the United Nations last Friday adopted by acclamation a new agenda designed to eradicate extreme poverty, boost inclusive economic growth, address key social priorities such as gender parity and quality education, and secure peaceful and inclusive societies, alongside tackling climate change and environmental degradation within a 15 year timeframe.

Investment Talks, Climate Change in the Spotlight at Xi-Obama Meeting
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 32 Oct 1, 2015
Negotiations for a bilateral investment treaty (BIT) between China and the US are set to ramp up, leaders from both nations said late last week, following high-level meetings in Washington that touched upon a range of key issues in the Sino-American relationship. A series of climate-related announcements also resulted from Chinese President Xi Jinping's state visit to the US capital city, with the Chinese leader confirming plans that Beijing will launch a national carbon market in 2017.

Trade Inclusiveness, Potential in Focus as WTO Public Forum Kicks Off
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 32 Oct 1, 2015
The importance of making trade more inclusive – as well as the potential for trade to boost growth, eradicate poverty, and create jobs – were among the key themes at the opening of this year's WTO Public Forum, which kicked off on Wednesday morning at the global trade body's Geneva.

Global finance: Why some emerging-market leaders say they want the Fed to hike
Economist Oct 1, 2015
Raising interest rates in America could have a big impact on emerging-market economies.

Adrift: Brazil’s Crisis of Confidence
Mark S. Langevin (Globalist) Oct 1, 2015
Corruption alone does not explain Brazil’s economic malaise.

Adrift: Brazil’s Crisis of Confidence
Mark S. Langevin (Globalist) Oct 1, 2015
Corruption alone does not explain Brazil’s economic malaise.

What Does a Central Banker Know About Climate Change?
Bloomberg View Oct 1, 2015
Society's response to global warming can affect financial stability.

The Rich Get Hit Harder by Inflation Than the Poor
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Oct 1, 2015
But there's no denying the social harm caused by rising income inequality.

Why Commodities Are Back in the 1990s
Barry Ritholtz (Bloomberg View) Oct 1, 2015
This isn't just about oil. Prices are down across the board.

Emerging Economies Can Turbocharge GDP
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Oct 1, 2015
Bringing huge shadow sectors into the light will result in better growth data.

Life After Schengen
Bill Emmott (Project Syndicate) Oct 1, 2015
Throughout Europe’s refugee crisis, which has been building for well over two years now, warnings about the threat to the EU's precious Schengen Area of border-free travel have proliferated. But, at a time of diminished confidence in the EU, would reimposing border controls be such a bad thing?

A Fish Called Development
Oby Ezekwesili, José María Figueres and Pascal Lamy (Project Syndicate) Oct 1, 2015
One of the first tests of the new Sustainable Development Goals will be whether they influence the outcome of other international negotiations. When leaders meet at the tenth WTO Ministerial Conference in Nairobi in December, they will have an opportunity to meet one of the targets: elimination of harmful fisheries subsidies.

China Imposes New Capital Controls
Gordon G. Chang (WA) Oct 1, 2015
Why should the rest of the world care how much money users of Chinese credit cards can withdraw abroad? The new rules, designed to slow capital flight, could spark a global panic.

Mexico’s Crude Capitalism
Keith Johnson (FP) Oct 1, 2015
The country is providing a model for a new Latin American energy policy. But will it work?

The costs of interest rate liftoff for homeowners: Why central bankers should focus on inflation
Carlos Garriga, Finn Kydland and Roman Šustek (VoxEU) Oct 1, 2015
An important channel for monetary policy transmission is through mortgage markets. This column illustrates how the effects of an interest rate lift-off, from the zero lower bound, on homeowners depend on three factors: the prevalent mortgage type in the economy (fixed or adjustable rate), the speed of the lift-off, and the inflation rate during the lift-off. This channel of transmission suggests that if the purpose of the lift-off is to normalise nominal interest rates without derailing the recovery, the Federal Reserve Bank and the Bank of England should wait until the economies show convincing signs of inflation taking off. Furthermore, the lift-off should be gradual and in line with inflation.

Policy-driven premature deindustrialisation in Malaysia
Jayant Menon and Thiam Hee Ng (VoxEU) Oct 1, 2015
Malaysia’s fortunes have taken a turn for the worse in recent years, both in manufacturing and across the economy in general. This column argues that the country is moving back to processing its agricultural and mineral resources, and that such ‘premature deindustrialisation’ is mostly policy driven. The biggest concern with such structural shifts is that they lead to low-productivity, low-wage manufacturing. Malaysia must address these issues and improve its business environment if it wants to realise its aspirations.

The Scary Debate Over Secular Stagnation
J. Bradford DeLong (Milken Institute Review) Oct 1, 2015
An analysis of Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers’ controversial claim that the United States and Europe face a bleak economic future unless government provides an ongoing boost.

China’s Money Goes Global
Barry Eichengreen (Milken Institute Review) Oct 1, 2015
Stepping back from the speculation about the prospects for the Chinese renminbi as a global currency to ask why it matters.

Will the Earth Ever Fill Up?
Adam Kucharski (Nautilus) Oct 1, 2015
We’ve predicted and broken human population limits for centuries.

Recovery from the Great Recession Has Varied around the World
Maria A. Arias & Yi Wen (FRBSL Regional Economist) Oct 1, 2015
Since the Great Recession and the subsequent global financial crisis, world output has grown moderately, yet the path of economic recovery has been fragile and uneven.

Trapped: Few Developing Countries Can Climb the Economic Ladder or Stay There
Maria A. Arias & Yi Wen (FRBSL Regional Economist) Oct 1, 2015
Although economic growth during the postwar period has lifted many low-income economies from poverty to a middle-income level and other economies to even higher levels of income, very few countries have been able to catch up with the high per capita income levels of the developed world and stay there.

Mark Carney is wrong: humanity still needs fossil fuels
Philip Lambert (FT) Oct 2, 2015
Central bankers use influence to make economy more stable, not create despair.

How Not to Prevent the Next Financial Meltdown
Edward P. Lazear (WSJ) Oct 2, 2015
Dodd-Frank’s safeguards against chaos are based on a misdiagnosis of what led to the 2008 crisis.

How poverty affects children’s brains
Kimberly G. Noble (WP) Oct 2, 2015
We should support policies and programs to reduce the poverty that ravages children’s pliable brains. Read full column »

Economic magicians wanted
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Oct 2, 2015
To strive successfully for faster growth requires patience and perspective. There is no magic wand. Read full article »

The Reality Behind the Numbers in China’s Boom-Bust Economy
Yonathan Amselem (Mises Daily) Oct 2, 2015
Last year, the world was stunned by an IMF report which found the Chinese economy larger and more productive than that of the United States, both in terms of raw GDP and purchasing power parity (PPP).

Why China will dominate talks at the IMF meetings in Lima
David Wessel (Brookings) Oct 2, 2015
These three questions will guide conversations among the world’s finance ministers next week in Peru.

Volkswagen: When a German Company Plays With Fire
Stephan Richter (Globalist) Oct 2, 2015
“Exciting” isn’t the first word that comes to mind when thinking of German business. But neither is “fraud.”

The Frenchman Who Reshaped the IMF
Prakash Loungani (Globalist) Oct 2, 2015
Reflections on the work of Olivier, the IMF’s now retired chief economist.

German Reunification Faces Its Last Frontier
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Oct 2, 2015
It's less important for Germany's east to catch up to the west economically than for the country to join together on immigration.

Let Puerto Rico Go Bankrupt
Ramesh Ponnuru (Bloomberg View) Oct 2, 2015
The territory's debts are unpayable -- and creditors should take the hit.

The Trans-Pacific Free-Trade Charade
Joseph E. Stiglitz and Adam S. Hersh (Project Syndicate) Oct 2, 2015
As negotiators and ministers from the US and 11 other Pacific Rim countries meet in Atlanta in an effort to finalize the details of the sweeping new Trans-Pacific Partnership, some sober analysis is warranted. The biggest regional trade and investment agreement in history is not what it seems.

Managing Europe’s Perfect Storm
Richard N. Haass (Project Syndicate) Oct 2, 2015
The Chinese often point out that in their language the character for crisis and opportunity are one and the same. But, while it is indeed true that crisis and opportunity often go hand in hand, it is difficult to see much opportunity in Europe’s current circumstances.

Volatility, financial crises and Minsky's hypothesis
Jon Danielsson, Marcela Valenzuela and Ilknur Zer (VoxEU) Oct 2, 2015
Does low volatility in financial markets mean that another financial crisis is more likely? And should we be worried when everything is OK? This column presents the first empirical results that find a strong validation of Minsky's hypothesis – obtained from 200 years of historical cross-sectional data – that low volatility increases the likelihood of a future financial crisis by increasing risk-taking.

A new international database on financial fragility
Panicos Demetriades, David Fielding and Johan Rewilak (VoxEU) Oct 2, 2015
There is a pressing need to understand the characteristics of financial systems that are vulnerable to crises, and the mechanisms through which crises are initiated and propagated. To address such a need, this column presents a new international database on financial fragility for 124 countries between 1998 and 2012. The novelties and main features of the databases are also highlighted.

The world economy: The sticky superpower
Patrick Foulis (Economist) Oct 3, 2015
America remains the world’s economic hegemon even as its share of the global economy has fallen and its politics have turned inwards. That is an unstable combination.

A slowdown among Asian economies: Running out of puff
Economist Oct 3, 2015
The region is not in crisis, but slower growth is hurting.

We need global policy coherence in trade and investment to boost growth
Gabriela Ramos (OECD Insight) Oct 3, 2015
Mounting fears of another slowdown in the global economy call for bolder policy responses. Trade and investment are a case in point.

A Big Boost for the Climate Summit
NYT Oct 3, 2015
India becomes the last big nation to make a pledge to fight rising greenhouse gas emissions.

Is the Devil in the Details? Estimating Global Poverty
Sanjay Reddy (INET) Oct 3, 2015
Global poverty estimates are too important to be left to non-transparent, back of the envelope calculations (and their calculators). There are practical alternatives that are possible, and they must be openly discussed. If we can’t do that, then let’s at least drop the pretense of reliability, not to mention that of precision. That will serve the world’s poorest rather better.

Policy Makers Skeptical on Preventing Financial Crisis
Binyamin Appelbaum (NYT) Oct 4, 2015
The 2008 financial crisis convinced most people in the world of central banking that it would be a good idea to try to prevent that kind of thing from happening again.

Volkswagen’s threat to the German model
Wolfgang Münchau (FT) Oct 4, 2015
Berlin’s over-reliance on cars is a silly strategy, much like Britain’s dependence on finance.

Emerging Asia: The ill wind of deflation
James Kynge and Jonathan Wheatley (FT) Oct 4, 2015
Falling prices hurt profits and spark job losses while fears mount over their effect elsewhere.

How the Fed Saved the Economy
Ben S. Bernanke (WSJ) Oct 4, 2015
Full employment without inflation is in sight. The central bank did its job. What about everyone else?

Market liquidity in liquid markets: Pitfalls and trends
Matteo Regesta and Alessandro Tentori (VoxEU) Oct 4, 2015
Market liquidity is all about smooth and rapid executions of large transactions. But why is it hard to keep big markets liquid? This column looks at liquidity in fixed-income markets, assesses new trends (as well as the EU’s new market instrument rules), and makes recommendations to policymakers to avoid illiquidity – a timely reminder that the social costs of illiquidity should not be underestimated.

Enemies of the Sun
Paul Krugman (NYT) Oct 5, 2015
The defenders of Old Energy try their best to ignore technologies which are increasingly viable.

Trans-Pacific Partnership: Good policy, bad politics?
Jennifer Rubin (WP) Oct 5, 2015
Can a trade deal survive presidential politics?

Migration Crisis: How to Break the Cycle of Death and Amnesia
Behzad Yaghmaian (Globalist) Oct 5, 2015
Europe alone cannot be asked to single-handedly shoulder the migration/refugee crisis facing the world.

It’s a gig, but is it a job?
Brian Keeley (OECD Insight) Oct 5, 2015
The “gig economy” has emerged as potentially one of the major shifts in what the Financial Times calls “the new world of work”.

El Nino Might Rescue Global Growth
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Oct 5, 2015
The weather phenomenon might be the answer to central bank prayers.

One Cheer for the TPP
Megan McArdle (Bloomberg View) Oct 5, 2015
For global free-trade champions, regional agreements are less than half a loaf.

The Middle East Meltdown and Global Risk
Nouriel Roubini (Project Syndicate) Oct 5, 2015
With the US on the way to achieving energy independence, there is a risk that America and its Western allies will consider the Middle East less strategically important than they did in the past. Wishful thinking should not cloud policy judgment: a burning Middle East can destabilize the world in many ways.

How China Is Changing the UN
Janka Oertel (Diplomat) Oct 5, 2015
The Chinese leadership derives legitimacy from its constructive role in matters of peace and development.

What bankers can teach economists
Ludger Schuknecht (FT) Oct 5, 2015
Myopia contrasts with more convincing action to repair the financial sector.

Market stabilisers at risk of failure
Mohamed El-Erian (FT) Oct 5, 2015
Counter-cyclical influence of institutional investors in doubt.

Sweden immigration: Don’t look back
Richard Milne (FT) Oct 5, 2015
While the nation remains pro-immigrant, officials admit many refugees from Syria and Iraq struggle to fit in.

The Pharma Compromise on TPP Is Good for US Consumers
Caroline Freund (PIIE) Oct 5, 2015
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement announced October 5 had been held up until the final hour by protections sought by the US pharmaceutical industry.

Explaining Eastern Europe's Happiness Gap
Simeon Djankov, Elena Nikolova and Jan Zilinsky (PIIE/FT) Oct 5, 2015
New research confirms that post-communist economies are systematically unhappier than their advanced and developing counterparts in the rest of the world, even after accounting for a variety of factors.

With TPP negotiations complete, the hard work begins
Mireya Solís (Brookings) Oct 5, 2015
We should not lose sight of the fact that more battles will need to be won before the Trans-Pacific Partnership morphs from an agreement in principle to an agreement in reality.

How to Sell the TPP
Bloomberg View Oct 5, 2015
Negotiating the world's most ambitious trade deal might have been the easy part.

Greece Without Illusions
Yanis Varoufakis (Project Syndicate) Oct 5, 2015
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras understands that his freshly reelected government is skating on the thin ice of a fiscal program that cannot succeed and a "reform" agenda that his ministers loathe. With the reality of further austerity measures set to test voters' patience, does Tsipras have any room for maneuver?

No, Depressed American Towns Do Not Look Like Zimbabwe
Annie Lowrey (New York) Oct 5, 2015
No, economically depressed towns in the United States are not “indistinguishable” from economically depressed towns in countries like Zimbabwe.

Emerging economy corporate debt: The threat to financial stability
Viral Acharya, Stephen Cecchetti, José De Gregorio, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Philip R. Lane & Ugo Panizza (VoxEU) Oct 5, 2015
Emerging market firms have borrowed in foreign currency to take advantage of low interest rates. This column argues that when the Fed inevitably raises rates, such borrowing will be a threat to emerging economy financial systems. Yet so long as authorities use their existing prudential tools wisely, the risks appear manageable.

Fixing the global financial safety net
Minouche Shafik (VoxEU) Oct 5, 2015
We need a strong and resilient global financial safety net to reduce the systemic implications of sovereign crises and allow nations to cope with shocks in order to reap the economic rewards of an integrated system of trade and finance. This column argues that the current arrangements are suboptimal – resembling more of a patchwork than a safety net. Drawing on the experience of central banks during the financial crisis, it offers preliminary policy proposals to enhance the effectiveness of the global financial safety net.

China’s Stock Market Crash Is the Latest Crisis of Global Capitalism
Walden Bello (Nation) Oct 5, 2015
Alongside rising protests from farmers and workers, China now confronts a middle class anxious about a slowdown in growth and burned by the stock market bust. It’s a volatile brew.

Beware of the liquidity delusion
Martin Wolf (FT) Oct 6, 2015
Conventional wisdom has not had a great run over the past decade so it should be questioned.

Supply and demand gap explains low growth
Richard Clarida (FT) Oct 6, 2015
Low rates and oil price fall are responses to output discrepancy.

The Pacific Trade Stakes
WSJ Oct 6, 2015
The pact would do much good but the IP details are worrying.

Hillary Clinton faces a tough choice on trade
Ruth Marcus (WP) Oct 6, 2015
She has four options on the Trans-Pacific Partnership; I’m afraid I know which she will choose. Read full article »

Uncertainty, Complex Forces Weigh on Global Growth
IMF Survey Oct 6, 2015
The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook foresees lower global growth compared to last year, with modest pickup in advanced economies and a slowing in emerging markets, primarily reflecting weakness in some large emerging economies and oil-exporting countries.

Global Capital Stock 2005-2014: A Natural Benchmark for Multi-Asset Portfolios
Andrea Vacchino and Markus Schuller (OECD Insights) Oct 6, 2015
How can you know whether a multi-asset portfolio is well managed?

The Changed Goal of Transition
Simeon Djankov (PIIE) Oct 6, 2015
In a recent paper, "On the Lost Purpose of Transition," Igor Luksic—an economist and policymaker from Montenegro—argues that the early focus of economic transition on achieving free markets has been substituted by "reconstructing paternalism in different forms."

Crowd Financing Is Not Banking
Avinash Persaud (Mint/PIIE) Oct 6, 2015
I have lived through enough financial cycles to be wary of the claims made of financial innovation. It is likely that there has been little financial innovation since grain futures contracts were struck several thousand years ago in the Indus Valley.

The Impact of ‘Currency Wars’ in Oil-Exporting Africa
Dan Steinbock (Economonitor) Oct 6, 2015
Since lower oil prices typically result in depreciation of the oil exporters’ currencies, the dramatic plunge of oil prices has severe implications for sub-Saharan Africa.

Abenomics Is Working
Bloomberg View Oct 6, 2015
Japan's economy is still struggling, but Shinzo Abe has set a new course.

Reform Is Working for Portugal
Bloomberg View Oct 6, 2015
Parliamentary elections proved that people understand the need for reform.

Glencore Gets Clobbered. Who’s Next?
A. Gary Shilling (Bloomberg View) Oct 6, 2015
Bankruptcies among producers and consolidation will accelerate.

Debt Déjà Vu
Adair Turner (Project Syndicate) Oct 6, 2015
Seven years after the global financial crisis, leverage worldwide is higher than ever, and aggregate demand is still insufficient to drive robust growth. More radical policies – such as major debt write-downs or increased fiscal deficits financed by permanent monetization – will be required to increase global demand.

A New Vision for the World Bank
Nancy Birdsall (Project Syndicate) Oct 6, 2015
Holding this year's World Bank meetings in Peru, a developing country, represents a welcome shift from the usual Washington, DC venue. One hopes that it portends other necessary shifts, with the Bank reframing its mission and undertaking new tasks – and with its biggest shareholder, the US, rethinking its role.

The Clean-Energy Moonshot
Jeffrey D. Sachs (Project Syndicate) Oct 6, 2015
In 1961, JFK declared his hope that, within the decade, the US would land a person on the moon; eight years later, NASA succeeded, with far-reaching benefits. Now, leading scientists, innovators, and economists are calling for this generation's moonshot: to replace fossil fuels with clean-energy technologies within a generation.

The Corporate-Friendly World of the T.P.P.
James Surowiecki (New Yorker) Oct 6, 2015
This deal has less to do with classic ideas of free trade than with making it easier for American companies to sell their products abroad.

Minimum wages in sub-Saharan Africa: A primer
Haroon Bhorat, Ravi Kanbur & Benjamin Stanwix (VoxEU) Oct 6, 2015
Most sub-Saharan African countries have adopted minimum wage laws. This column argues that this will become increasingly significant for the economy as a whole as the number of covered workers grows, with possible spillover effects to uncovered sectors. Importantly, sub-Saharan Africa displays a bias towards a more aggressive minimum policy relative to the rest of the world. Perhaps due to this, compliance is not very high and the economic consequences of minimum wages are not particularly strong.

‘Fossilist’ finance blocks ‘clean $1tn’
David Pitt-Watson (FT) Oct 7, 2015
Capital markets have unintended bias to unsustainable investment.

'Anyone but China’ club needs a gatecrasher
David Pilling (FT) Oct 7, 2015
The TPP constrains state economic power in ways that seem almost designed with Beijing in mind.

The demagogues destroying Europe’s ideals
Kati Marton (FT) Oct 7, 2015
After Soviet tanks crushed the Hungarian uprising no one caged us behind wire.

Global economy: The case for expansion
Lawrence Summers (FT) Oct 7, 2015
Policymakers must abandon structural reform rhetoric and embrace fiscal stimulus.

Policymakers Face Triad of Challenges to Ensure Financial Stability
IMF Survey Oct 7, 2015
While financial stability has improved in advanced economies, risks remain elevated and continue to rotate toward emerging markets, which now play a greater role in the world economy, according to the International Monetary Fund’s latest Global Financial Stability Report.

How Fiscal Policy Can Tame the Commodities Roller Coaster
IMF Survey Oct 7, 2015
Resource-rich economies face enormous challenges to manage volatile and unpredictable commodity prices. In its latest Fiscal Monitor, the IMF examines how countries can tax and spend wisely so that their oil, gas and metals support strong and stable economic development.

Will the Trans-Pacific Partnership Deliver on Its Promises?
K@W Oct 7, 2015
Opinion is sharply divided on the potential impact of the TPP in protecting and creating jobs, supporting the environment and safeguarding pharmaceutical innovation.

No More "Free Trade" Treaties: It's Time for Genuine Free Trade
Ferghane Azihari & Louis Rouanet (Mises Daily) Oct 7, 2015
It is erroneous to believe that free traders have been historically in favor of free trade agreements between governments

When the 0.00001 Percent Sneeze
Caroline Freund (FP/PIIE) Oct 7, 2015
The current market turmoil hurts billionaire entrepreneurs, their superstar firms, and the many workers whom they employ.

Hillary Clinton Just Made Passage of the TPP Much More Difficult
George Zornick (Nation) Oct 7, 2015
Forget 2016–Hillary just changed the congressional debate on the trade pact.

Manufacturing Moved South, Then Moved Out
Justin Fox (Bloomberg View) Oct 7, 2015
The region embraced industries that soon fell to foreign competition.

Free Trade Is No Longer a No-Brainer
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Oct 7, 2015
Maybe the old arguments in support weren't so great in the first place.

The French Exception?
Kenneth Rogoff (Project Syndicate) Oct 7, 2015
A healthy French economy would do wonders to help lift the eurozone out of its malaise and could provide an example to countries everywhere of how inclusive capitalism can work. But that assumes that the government will embrace the structural reforms that France’s economy so desperately needs.

The Bezzle Years
John Kay (Project Syndicate) Oct 7, 2015
In any case of embezzlement, there is a period when the embezzler has his gain and the victim feels no loss – a period of increased psychic wealth that John Kenneth Galbraith called "the bezzle." That is also the story of recent asset-price bubbles, until the bezzle turned into a bummer.

Beijing Versus the Billionaire
Sin-ming Shaw (Project Syndicate) Oct 7, 2015
China’s government and Hong Kong’s wealthiest man, the much-admired Li Ka-shing, have been waging an acidic spat – one that increasingly looks like a bitter divorce being played out in tabloid newspapers. The conflict comes down to politics. Li is showing too much independence, and China’s communist rulers do not like it one bit.

How US corporations structure their international production chains
Natalia Ramondo, Veronica E Rappoport & Kim Ruhl (VoxEU) Oct 7, 2015
The global nature of supply chains has rapidly come to dominate international trade. This column presents new evidence on production fragmentation and intra-firm trade. For US corporations, cross-country shipments of goods between units of the corporation are rare, despite the fact that most US manufacturing parents own foreign affiliates in upstream or downstream industries.

Renminbi outlook a puzzle for investors
Jennifer Hughes (FT) Oct 8, 2015
Global investors look beyond China’s desire for reserve currency status.

China spurs Modi’s pivot to Washington
Philip Stephens (FT) Oct 8, 2015
The world’s largest democracy needs the investment of the most advanced one.

Asset prices march to one unnerving beat
Gillian Tett (FT) Oct 8, 2015
When turbulence hit global markets this summer some of the best hedge fund gurus were hammered Read more >>

Fortress Russia offers west a cosy deal
Lilia Shevtsova (FT) Oct 8, 2015
On offer is a relationship that permits fluid interpretation of global rules.

The human cloud: A new world of work
Sarah O’Connor (FT) Oct 8, 2015
A drive to divvy up and scatter jobs into a virtual world of workers raises questions about the outcome

Still Paying the Price of Keynesian Currency
Lewis E. Lehrman and John D. Mueller (WSJ) Oct 8, 2015
Fundamental monetary reform—restoring gold reserves—would be a boon to the U.S. and world trade.

How Tajik weddings helped me understand Wall Street
Gillian Tett (OECD Insight) Oct 8, 2015
The paradox of the modern age is that we live in a world that is closely integrated in some ways; but fragmented in others. Shocks are increasingly contagious. But we continue to behave and think in tiny silos.

Lagarde Calls for New Recipe for Stronger Growth
IMF Survey Oct 8, 2015
Policymakers in all countries will have to refine and upgrade their economic policies to boost growth and reduce global uncertainty, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said.

Zero Rates Are The New Normal
John Aziz (Pieria) Oct 8, 2015
"Renormalization" is a flight of folly. Interest rates are tending toward zero as the cost of production of financial capital has fallen to close to zero.

After TPP Deal Reached in Atlanta, Focus Shifts to Ratification
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 33 Oct 8, 2015
Ministers from 12 Pacific Rim countries concluded a sweeping trade pact this past Monday, following several days of frenzied negotiations in the US city of Atlanta to bring the agreement across the finish line. With the talks on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) now completed, participating countries are now gearing up to face their next big challenge: building public support and ratifying the pact's terms in their domestic legislatures.

WTO Post-Nairobi Agenda Looms Over G-20 Trade Ministers' Meeting
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 33 Oct 8, 2015
Despite emerging consensus over a small package of measures for the WTO's Nairobi ministerial conference this December, the organisation's head has told trade ministers that its members disagree over how to handle unresolved negotiations on other issues in the long-running Doha Round of talks.

UN Officials Outline Draft Text for December Climate Deal
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 33 Oct 8, 2015
The co-chairs of a multilateral group charged with hammering out a new, universal emissions-cutting deal released on Monday a 20-page "non-paper" containing proposed content for a draft "climate package" to be agreed at the Twenty-first Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC COP21) scheduled to be held in Paris, France in early December.

Why China’s foreign aid pledges are causing controversy at home—and what it means for Africa
Yun Sun (Brookings) Oct 8, 2015
New aid commitments announced by President Xi Jinping are facing criticism by Chinese citizens, and the unexpected negativity could affect China.

Clinton Is Wrong on TPP
Bloomberg View Oct 8, 2015
Her change of heart on the trade deal is bad economics and bad foreign policy.

China Belongs in the TPP
Bloomberg View Oct 8, 2015
Including the world's largest trading nation would serve everyone's interests.

Making Sense of Lehman Through Bernanke
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Oct 8, 2015
His new book doesn't really answer why the bank was allowed to fail.

Six Rules For Navigating Volatile Markets
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Oct 8, 2015
Turmoil creates stock bargains, but you should know the risks.

Oil Is Fleeting. Skilled Workers Drive Growth.
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Oct 8, 2015
The resource curse stifles durable economic development.

Why Do High-Frequency Traders Cancel So Many Orders?
Matt Levine (Bloomberg View) Oct 8, 2015
And do they make our markets less stable and less fair?

The Mirage of Structural Reform
Dani Rodrik (Project Syndicate) Oct 8, 2015
Every economic program imposed on Greece since the financial crisis struck in 2009 has assumed that structural reforms, boldly conceived and implemented, would bring about rapid economic recovery. But any serious assessment of the results produced by structural reforms around the world would have poured cold water on such expectations.

Big Oil, Big Tobacco, Big Lies
Kelle Louaillier and Bill McKibben (Project Syndicate) Oct 8, 2015
A recent investigation revealed that Exxon has been deliberately obscuring scientific evidence of climate change for decades. The revelations should prove, once and for all, that the fossil-fuel industry has no legitimate place in the policymaking process.

Why Support the TPP?
Jeffrey Frankel (Project Syndicate) Oct 8, 2015
Agreement among negotiators from 12 Pacific Rim countries on the Trans-Pacific Partnership represents a triumph over long odds. And now critics of the TPP’s ratification, particularly in the US, should read the agreement with an open mind.

Economic slowdown a hangover not a coma
Kenneth Rogoff (FT) Oct 9, 2015
Debt lies behind much of what has happened in the past seven years.

The ECB’s ABS Purchases – Catalyst or Dud?
Felix Blomenkamp and Rachit Jain (PIMCO) Oct 9, 2015
While supportive in addressing the asset class’s negative stigma, the ECB’s asset-backed securities purchase program (ABSPP) has not achieved its aim to revive Europe’s lackluster ABS market and spur issuance and, ultimately, lending to the real economy. Current funding for a European bank’s loan business is less costly through other channels and the ECB’s low risk appetite in ABS has been too selective in both regional and sector focus. In the medium term we believe economics for securitization need to work and the scope of the ABS purchase program must expand to be effective.

Asia Can Take Steps to Bolster Resilience Amid Economic Slowdown
IMF Survey Oct 9, 2015
Growth is moderating in Asia, but the region will continue to outperform the rest of the global economy, according to an IMF report on Asia’s economy released on October 9 in Lima, Peru, as part of the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings.

Wanted: A New Debt Deal for the World
Barry Herman (Globalist) Oct 9, 2015
Beyond just Argentina, it’s time to find a solution for how unpayable sovereign debts are fixed.

Forget the Central Bankers. Build Some Roads.
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Oct 9, 2015
Maybe the world needs more spending by big government.

New Findings From War on Poverty: Just Give Cash
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Oct 9, 2015
Money reduces family dysfunction and helps kids become productive adults.

Pro-Growth is Not Pro-Poor
Steven J. Klees (Project Syndicate) Oct 9, 2015
"Pro-growth is pro-poor” has been the informal slogan of the World Bank and the IMF for decades, resulting in 35 years of neoliberal economic policies. Their programs yielded modest growth at best; what they did succeed in boosting was poverty, inequality, and social protest.

The Hidden Debt Burden of Emerging Markets
Carmen Reinhart (Project Syndicate) Oct 9, 2015
As central bankers and finance ministers gather for the IMF’s annual meetings in Lima, the emerging world is rife with symptoms of increasing economic vulnerability. Some of those symptoms, like slowing growth, are obvious and quantifiable; others, however, are dangerous partly because they are difficult to discern.

China’s Monetary-Policy Choice
Zhang Jun (Project Syndicate) Oct 9, 2015
China’s economy has followed a remarkable course in recent years: from record-breaking powerhouse to major global risk. How did China get here, and can it put its economic growth back on track?

Targeting Non-Communicable Diseases
John C. Lechleiter (Project Syndicate) Oct 9, 2015
Non-communicable diseases are one of the leading threats to economic progress and human wellbeing. Addressing the complex challenge that they pose will require a coordinated international effort that draws on the resources and expertise of governments, international non-profits, and, crucially, the private sector.

Intangibles and productivity growth: Evidence from Japan and Korea
Hyunbae Chun, Tsutomu Miyagawa, Hak K. Pyo and Konomi Tonogi (VoxEU) Oct 9, 2015
Economists increasingly stress the importance of investment in intangibles such as human and knowledge capital as a way to stimulate economic growth. This column examines how intangibles contribute to economic growth in Japan and Korea. Though intangible investment has increased in both countries in recent decades, the amount of tangible investment has been greater. This is different from what is observed in western advanced economies, which can be explained by the less developed financial markets in eastern Asia.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership: Weighing anchor
Economist Oct 10, 2015
Negotiators agree on an ambitious trade deal, but opposition to its ratification is already fierce.

Youth Unemployment Gap Can Be Bridged through Education, Inclusion
IMF Survey Oct 10, 2015
Youth leaders from around the world came together at the IMF’s Annual Meetings “Youth Dialogue” to share views and personal experiences on the role of education in addressing youth unemployment and on how to bring more youth into the formal sector, which offers better career prospects and social and job protection.

Latin America’s Priorities for the Next Decade
IMF Survey Oct 10, 2015
Latin American countries will need to develop new opportunities to boost growth, while preserving and even enhancing social gains, top economists said at an Annual Meetings seminar.

Policymakers Face Historic Opportunity to Fight Climate Change
IMF Survey Oct 10, 2015
Governments should seize the opportunity afforded by low oil prices to move forward with combating climate change by setting a price on carbon emissions and eliminating energy subsidies, panelists said at a seminar.

The First Global Empire
Roger Crowley (History Today) Oct 10, 2015
Poor and small, Portugal was at the edge of late medieval Europe. But its seafarers created the age of ‘globalisation’, which continues to this day.

The Case for Getting Rid of Borders—Completely
Alex Tabarrok (Atlantic) Oct 10, 2015
No defensible moral framework regards foreigners as less deserving of rights than people born in the right place at the right time.

The dark side of foreign exchange liquidity
Nina Karnaukh, Angelo Ranaldo and Paul Söderlind (VoxEU) Sep 10, 2015
Understanding foreign exchange markets is key to understanding the global financial system. Yet, a clear understanding of why and how foreign exchange illiquidity materialises is still missing. This column suggests that foreign exchange liquidity can be impaired in times of flight to quality and higher global risk, and that commonality increases in distressed markets.

The profitability of early coinage
Jacques Melitz (VoxEU) Oct 10, 2015
Minting small change was a big, expensive problem in the ancient world. This column argues that the ancient Lydian government and Greek city-states absorbed the cost of producing an extremely wide array of denominations of coins as a political strategy. Governments had much to gain from the spread of coinage in managing budgetary affairs. If it subsidised the mint, an ancient government would make savings in terms of transaction costs.

Germany risks wasting refugee benefits
Wolfgang Munchau (FT) Oct 11, 2015
The irresistible force of the migrants is hitting the immovable object of a high minimum wage Read more >>

Europe needs homegrown bulge bracket banks
Frédéric Oudéa (FT) Oct 11, 2015
Formidable competition from US institutions demands a response.

Saudi Arabia oil: No gain without pain
Anjli Raval and Simeon Kerr (FT) Oct 11, 2015
Riyadh’s decision to maintain output, even as prices fell, has hobbled rivals but exposed its economic weaknesses.

The Bernanke file
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Oct 11, 2015
Former Fed chair Ben Bernanke’s new memoir offers an incomplete theory about the financial crisis. Read full article »

The questions about China’s steady climb towards high income
Yiping Huang (EAF) Oct 11, 2015
When its GDP per capita hit almost US$7500 in 2014, China entered the middle income stage of economic development. Relatively few countries that have made middle income status in the past three or four decades have graduated to high-income status, or achieved per capita incomes over US$16,000.

Inequality is the great concern of our age. So why do we tolerate rapacious, unjust tax havens?
Gabriel Zucman (Guardian) Oct 11, 2015
Companies that avoid tax are depriving countries of vast revenues, but there is now a unique opportunity for reform

International capital flows, sectoral resource allocation, and the financial resource curse
Gianluca Benigno, Nathan Converse & Luca Fornaro (VoxEU) Oct 11, 2015
In the aftermath of the Global Crisis, policymakers have adopted policies to limit, or at least manage, capital inflows. This column explores episodes of capital inflows coupled with weak productivity growth, in other words, the financial resource curse. The findings show that once access to foreign capital subsides, the initial boom gives way to a recession. Both investment and employment in the manufacturing sector drop, and the larger the decrease of labour in manufacturing, the sharper the following contraction.

Clarity needed on earnings and Fed timing
Richard Madigan (FT) Oct 12, 2015
Essential prerequisites for a more constructive market outlook.

Deaton shares his 3 big ideas
Ferdinando Giugliano (FT) Oct 12, 2015
Scotland-born academic wades into sensitive debates surrounding inequality and foreign aid.

China’s great game: Road to a new empire
Charles Clover and Lucy Hornby (FT) Oct 12, 2015
A new Silk Road is Beijing’s signature foreign policy.

Nobel in Economics Given to Angus Deaton for Studies of Consumption
Binyamin Appelbaum (NYT) Oct 12, 2015
He is best known for his insight that economic averages such as measures of national income could be misleading, because they concealed important variations.

Why Angus Deaton Deserved the Economics Nobel Prize
Justin Wolfers (NYT) Oct 12, 2015
The central contribution of Angus Deaton, the latest winner of the Nobel Memorial Prize in economics, has been to shift the gaze of his fellow economists beyond measures of income, to broader measures of well-being.

Measuring World Poverty as It Shrinks
David R. Henderson (WSJ) Oct 12, 2015
Angus Deaton wins the 2015 Nobel Prize in economics.

Diagnosing What Ails Haiti's Economy
Mary Anastasia O'Grady (WSJ) Oct 12, 2015
The World Bank fingers cronyism, of which Bill Clinton was for years a symbol.

Germany faces more difficult road ahead
Keith Wade (Pieria) Oct 12, 2015
The longer term prognosis for Germany looks poor.

New Approaches to Economic Challenges from the OECD
Mathilde Mesnard (OECD Insights) Oct 12, 2015
New economic and policy thinking is required today more than ever

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Scenarios
Dan Steinbock (RGE Economonitor/China Daily) Oct 12, 2015
The recent Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement presents Asia with good, bad and ugly scenarios.

It's the Economy, Putin
Bloomberg View Oct 12, 2015
Russia's new cold war is worsening the slump it's designed to hide.

Where's the Courage to Act on Banks?
Anat R. Admati (Bloomberg View) Oct 12, 2015
Ben Bernanke and the Fed seem to have missed a key lesson of the financial crisis.

Growing Government Debt Will Test Euro-Zone Solidarity
Jean-Michel Paul (Bloomberg View) Oct 12, 2015
The question is, how much can it take before cracking?

7 Bland Takeaways on the Global Economy
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Oct 12, 2015
Annual IMF/World Bank meetings fail to point the way forward.

The Profit Motive Can't End Climate Change (Yet)
Mark Buchanan (Bloomberg View) Oct 12, 2015
But markets could be a powerful force for the environment.

Nobel Economist Showed We're Helping the Wrong People
Cass R. Sunstein (Bloomberg View) Oct 12, 2015
Angus Deaton found that happiness is mostly constant once you make $75,000 a year.

Relax. We'll Survive China's Sales of U.S. Debt.
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Oct 12, 2015
Lots of other investors want to own Treasuries.

China is Not Collapsing
Anatole Kaletsky (Project Syndicate) Oct 12, 2015
One question has dominated the IMF’s annual meeting this year in Peru: Will China’s economic downturn trigger a new financial crisis just as the world is putting the last one to bed? But the assumption underlying that question – that China is now the global economy’s weakest link – is highly suspect.

Search for yield
David Martinez-Miera & Rafael Repullo (VoxEU) Oct 12, 2015
Discussions on the connection between the level of interest rates, incentives to search for yield, and financial stability have been prominent over the last ten years or so. More recently, Larry Summers argued in his 2014 secular stagnation address that the decline in the real interest rates would be expected to increase financial instability. This column addresses the challenging issue of providing an explanation for the connection between these phenomena. An increase in the supply of savings that reduces equilibrium real rates can be associated with an increase in the risk of the banking system. This link can explain the emergence of endogenous boom and bust cycles.

Solid growth is harder than blowing bubbles
Martin Wolf (FT) Oct 13, 2015
Now it is not just America — the world economy also catches a cold when China sneezes.

Ageing economies grow old with grace
Manoj Pradhan (FT) Oct 13, 2015
Per capita income will find more support than falling growth suggests.

China’s Great Game: New frontier, old foes
Tom Mitchell (FT) Oct 13, 2015
Beijing’s attempts to tame energy-rich Xinjiang may be stoking unrest from its ethnic Uighurs.

From Rhetoric to Reality: Decisive Action Needed on Development Goals
IMF Survey Oct 13, 2015
Governments must take action at the country level and the collective level to mobilize resources and partner with the private sector if they are to attain the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, panelists said at a seminar.

Euro Deflation And How To Interpret It
John Weeks (Pieria) Oct 13, 2015
The way out is obvious to those not blinkered by the austerity ideology.

It Isn't Just Asian Immigrants Who Thrive in the U.S.
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Oct 13, 2015
Skilled foreign workers do well no matter where they're from.

QE's Shortcomings Show Up in Global Wealth
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Oct 13, 2015
Inequality rises as quantitative easing boosts financial assets.

Time Is Running Out on U.S. Frackers
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Oct 13, 2015
While a U.S. oil production decline is inevitable, most of the industry will survive a harsh 2016.

Are Sanctions Saving Russia?
Richard A. Werner and Vladimir I. Yakunin (Project Syndicate) Oct 13, 2015
The economic sanctions imposed on Russia by the West in March 2014 have undoubtedly been painful. But they have so far failed to achieve their goal of compelling President Vladimir Putin to change his policy toward Ukraine, and they may end up leaving Russia – and Putin – even stronger than before.

Governments’ Self-Disruption Challenge
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Project Syndicate) Oct 13, 2015
One of the most difficult challenges facing Western governments today is to enable and channel the transformative – and self-empowering – forces of technological innovation. They will not succeed unless they become more open to creative destruction, allowing not only tools and procedures, but also mindsets, to be upgraded.

A Clash of Western Civilizations
Diana Pinto (Project Syndicate) Oct 13, 2015
Images from the refugee crisis in Europe have sparked a surge of commentary about the “two Europes” – one welcoming, one forbidding. The truth is that disagreements over whether countries should take in refugees are symptomatic of a deep rift within the Western world.

Inflation targeting does not anchor inflation expectations: Evidence from a new firm survey
Hassan Afrouzi, Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Saten Kumar (VoxEU) Oct 13, 2015
The importance of the general public’s inflation expectations is increasingly being emphasised, but surveys of firms’ expectations are notably absent. This column explores the extent to which inflation expectations of firms in New Zealand are anchored. The findings indicate that managers show little anchoring of inflation expectations, despite 25 years of inflation targeting by the central bank. Most managers depend to a large extent on their personal shopping experience to make inferences about aggregate inflation.

How EM disaster can turn to recovery
Paul McNamara (FT) Oct 14, 2015
Watch for aggressive monetary policy and targeted intervention.

New mission could transform World Bank
Alan Beattie (FT) Oct 14, 2015
Despite multiple reorganisations, this is an institution in search of a USP.

Is History Repeating Itself in Brazil?
Monica de Bolle (PIIE) Oct 14, 2015
Faced with large and growing budget deficits, Brazil's central bank is burdened by a policy dilemma: If it raises interest rates to control runaway inflation, it will increase the public sector's interest bill, worsening its fiscal deficit. The monetary authority's interventions in currency markets to stem the devaluation of the real have aggravated Brazil's problems.

Making innovation work
Dirk Pilat (OECD Insights) Oct 14, 2015
Today, innovation is central to advanced and emerging economies alike; in many OECD countries, firms invest as much in the knowledge-based assets that drive innovation, such as software, databases, research and development, firm-specific skills and organisational capital, as they do in physical capital, such as machinery, equipment or buildings.

Future challenges of the digital age
Peter Schaar (DB Research) Oct 14, 2015
The question as to who has access to our data is becoming ever more important in light of current data collection and processing practices. Contrary to expectations, today's information society is primarily transparent in only one direction like a one-way mirror, with transparent users on one side and largely non-transparent, digital power centres on the other. No society in which ever more data is available at the global level is immune to cultural impoverishment and oppression.

Job-Saving Technologies
Michael Spence and James Manyika (Project Syndicate) Oct 14, 2015
This is an age of anxiety about the job-killing effects of automation, with dire headlines warning that the rise of robots will render entire occupational categories obsolete. But this fatalism assumes that we are powerless to harness what we create to improve our lives – and, indeed, our jobs.

Breaking Down India’s Internal Barriers
Shashi Tharoor (Shashi Tharoor) Oct 14, 2015
Of the many economic reforms crying out for immediate implementation in India, the most obvious is the long-pending Goods and Services Tax, which could add 1-2% to India’s GDP instantly. So why have India’s politicians failed to enact it?

Africa’s Urban Opportunity
Trevor Manuel and Felipe Calderón (Project Syndicate) Oct 14, 2015
Africa’s prospects over the next three decades will be determined largely by how well it manages rapid urbanization. Though the challenge is certainly daunting, the right approach can propel the continent toward a more stable, prosperous, and environmentally friendly future.

The Crisis Europe Needs
Barry Eichengreen (Project Syndicate) Oct 14, 2015
Creating institutions to enhance border security and resettle refugees will require Europe to take another step toward deeper political integration, with decisions made at the EU, not the national, level. There may be a reluctance to contemplate this, but there is no choice if Europe is to have a hope of solving the problem.

Cross-border movement of persons stimulates trade
Emilie Anér, Anna Graneli & Magnus Lodefalk (VoxEU) Oct 14, 2015
A large body of research has established a positive link between immigrants and bilateral trade. However, the temporary movement of people across borders has received less attention. This column uses Swedish data to analyse the impact of temporary cross-border movement on trade. Recently arrived migrants are found to reduce the negative impact of distance on foreign trade, by assisting firms to overcome informal and informational barriers to trade with their origin country. Facilitating movement of people across borders can be a highly useful tool for engaging in and benefitting from specialised and internationalised production networks.

Macro diversification through trade
Francesco Caselli, Miklós Koren, Milan Lisicky & Silvana Tenreyro (VoxEU) Oct 14, 2015
A widely held view in academic and policy circles is that openness to international trade and specialisation leads to higher GDP volatility. This column argues that openness to international trade can also lower a country’s GDP volatility by allowing it to diversify its sources of demand and supply, and hence reduce its exposure to domestic shocks.

Carney is right to warn of coming tempest
Martin Wolf (FT) Oct 15, 2015
The more information is available, the better investors will be able to manage the risks.

The tangle of loose lending to tight oil
Gillian Tett (FT) Oct 15, 2015
Big US lenders have admitted they are setting money aside to cover losses on fossil fuel loans.

Forward guidance branded disruptive
Ferdinando Giuliano (FT) Oct 15, 2015
Failure to provide clear advice over what happens next is agitating investors.

No Wonder Growth Has Been So Anemic
Andy Puzder (WSJ) Oct 15, 2015
President Obama thinks more union membership will help the middle class. No, jobs are what’s needed.

Don't Look Back in Anger at Bailouts and Stimulus
Alan S. Blinder (WSJ) Oct 15, 2015
Without the emergency measures of 2008-09, the U.S. economy would be far worse off today.

Good News Is Bad News for China
Michael Schuman (Bloomberg View) Oct 15, 2015
Healthy GDP numbers mask an economy that's not rebalancing.

The End of German Hegemony
Daniel Gros (Project Syndicate) Oct 15, 2015
Without anyone quite noticing, Europe’s internal balance of power has been shifting. Germany’s dominant position, which has seemed absolute since the 2008 financial crisis, is gradually weakening – with far-reaching implications for the EU and the eurozone.

Will Technology Kill Convergence?
Kemal Dervis (Project Syndicate) Oct 15, 2015
Hailed in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis as the new engines of the world economy, the emerging economies are now acting as a drag on growing growth, causing many to argue that their era of rapid expansion – and their quest to achieve convergence with advanced-country income levels – is over. Are the doomsayers right?

Explaining recent declines in labour’s share in US income
Robert Z. Lawrence (VoxEU) Oct 15, 2015
The US debate over income inequality in the 1980s and 1990s focused on the growing disparity between the earnings of the skilled, the unskilled and the super-rich. After the global crash, the decline in labour’s share of national income has been added to these concerns. This column presents an alternative explanation for this decline, arguing that limited substitution possibilities between capital and labour combined with the acceleration in the pace of labour-augmenting technical change raises the effective labour-capital ratio. The policy implications of this alternative explanation are profoundly different from those currently circulating.

Saudi Arabia's Oil War With Russia
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Oct 16, 2015
The competition between the two biggest exporters is heating up, especially in eastern Europe.

People Aren't Unequal; Companies Are
Peter R. Orszag (Bloomberg View) Oct 16, 2015
To earn a bigger paycheck, get hired by a superstar business.

The Fed's Next Move
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Oct 16, 2015
It's too early to predict a rate hike delay.

The African Breadbasket
Paul Kagame and K.Y. Amoako (Project Syndicate) Oct 16, 2015
This World Food Day, countries are mobilizing behind the Sustainable Development Goals – one of which calls for the elimination of hunger and malnutrition, together with the creation of a more resilient food system, by 2030. This is a daunting challenge; but for Africa, it also represents a major opportunity.

The Volkswagen Revolution
Lucy P. Marcus (Project Syndicate) Oct 16, 2015
The world is only at the beginning of what could be a long process of investigation and accountability for Volkswagen. If that process fuels wider disruption of the industry, it could lead to a genuinely new era for human mobility.

The Japan Syndrome Comes to China
Jeffrey D. Sachs (Project Syndicate) Oct 16, 2015
In the late 1980s and early 1990s, the US issued stern, and apparently credible, threats to restrict Japanese imports, which pushed Japan to overvalue the yen and helped to bring Japanese growth to a screeching halt. That may be happening again in China, where growth is slowing markedly under the weight of an overvalued currency.

Escape from the World Bank
Devesh Kapur (Project Syndicate) Oct 16, 2015
The World Bank is like an old ship: in its seven decades, all kinds of barnacles – sticky budgetary accretions and transaction costs – have accumulated on its hull, steadily impeding its speed and performance. In the absence of reform, the major emerging countries were right to create their own development-finance institutions.

This is where China’s future will be decided.
Matt O'Brien (WP) Oct 16, 2015
Whether it is Beijing’s ring roads, Shanghai’s subway lines or Lanzhou’s high-rises, China has not built what it needs today, but what it will need tomorrow.

Strange Bedfellows: Europe’s Innovations, China’s Capital
Mark Esposito and Terence Tse (RGE Economonitor) Oct 16, 2015
With China set to play a greater role as capital provider in the future, expect to see more startups pitching innovations specifically to Chinese investors.

Services trade restrictiveness, economic governance, and manufacturing productivity
Cosimo Beverelli, Matteo Fiorini & Bernard Hoekman (VoxEU) Oct 16, 2015
There is some evidence suggesting a positive effect of services trade liberalisation on the productivity of manufacturing. This column argues that such an effect is conditional on the institutions within a country. Countries with better economic governance benefit more from open services trade policies. Higher quality institutions attract more productive services providers and support higher levels of services performance.

Services trade liberalisation and institutions
Cosimo Beverelli, Matteo Fiorini and Bernard Hoekman (VoxEU) Oct 16, 2015
There is some evidence suggesting a positive effect of services trade liberalisation on the productivity of manufacturing. This column argues that such an effect is conditional on the institutions within a country. Countries with better economic governance benefit more from open services trade policies. Higher quality institutions attract more productive services providers and support higher levels of services performance.

European banks: Banking and nothingness
Economist Oct 17, 2015
Europe’s dithering banks are losing ground to their decisive American rivals.

Britain and Europe: The reluctant European
Economist Oct 17, 2015
There is a growing risk that Britain will leave the European Union. It needs to be countered.

Permanent Surpluses Mean Permanent Overtaxation
John Aziz (Pieria) Oct 17, 2015
And permanent overtaxation means a permanent brake on growth.

The quest for robust and synchronised growth
Maurice Obstfeld (VoxEU) Oct 17, 2015
In this column, the IMF's new Economic Counsellor and Director of Research presents the latest World Economic Outlook, which shows how the world economy is at the intersection of at least three powerful forces. First is China’s economic transformation away from export- and investment-led growth and manufacturing, in favour of a greater focus on consumption and services; second is the fall in commodity prices; and third is the impending normalisation of monetary policy in the US.

Better no fiscal union than a flawed one
Wolfgang Munchau (FT) Oct 18, 2015
If this is the kind of integration on offer, preferable to say no and stick with the present system.

Strong press vital to rein in capitalism
Luigi Zingales (FT) Oct 18, 2015
Media outlets willing to stand up to economic power are essential.

Argentina: Handover fears
Benedict Mander (FT) Oct 18, 2015
As Cristina Fernández steps down she leaves a slowing economy that will limit her successor’s.

A Better Way to Measure Poverty
David Jeffret and Amir Pasic (WSJ) Oct 18, 2015

The Fed's Confusion over Interest Rates
Angel Ubide (El Pais/PIIE) Oct 18, 2015
Ben Bernanke, in his recently published memoirs, says that monetary policy is 98 percent communication and 2 percent action. During his tenure as a central banker he scrupulously followed this principle. Shortly after being named governor of the Federal Reserve in 2003, he gave a speech stating that the success of monetary policy depends mostly on the central bank's ability to communicate its plans and objectives.

Will US Republicans torpedo the TPP?
Richard Katz (EAF) Oct 18, 2015
In a surprising development, US congressional Republicans and a few of their business allies now pose the biggest threat to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).
A new tool focuses on consumption, not income, and on whether people’s basic needs are being met.

Does foreign aid affect growth?
Axel Dreher, Vera Eichenauer, Kai Gehring, Sarah Langlotz & Steffen Lohmann (VoxEU) Oct 18, 2015
There is no consensus on whether foreign aid is effective in boosting the economy of the recipient country. This column suggests that there is no evidence that aid affects growth. This finding does not imply that aid is necessarily ineffective. Much of the aid is not given to affect growth in the first place, but as humanitarian aid following disasters, to fight terror, please political allies, or influence decisions in important international organisations. Such aid should thus be evaluated with its own goals in mind.

Productivity Slowdown: Is Competition the Cure?
Kevin Harris (RGE) Oct 18, 2016
In the U.S. and much of the rest of the world, a tepid post-crisis recovery has been undermined by decelerating productivity growth—a serious concern with no definite explanation. Here, we examine various theories about what caused the productivity slowdown in the U.S., considering potential policy solutions. Our analysis also applies, in large part, to productivity trends in much of the developed world.

China-Brazil link is top threat to globe
Gene Frieda (FT) Oct 19, 2015
Danger of renminbi depreciation unleashing deflation worldwide.

Discordant Financial Messages From China Spur Global Unease
Neil Gough (NYT) Oct 19, 2015
Conflicting signals about the direction of the country's economy are creating volatility in world markets and causing consternation among policy makers.

Something Not Rotten in Denmark
Paul Krugman (NYT) Oct 19, 2015
An example of a welfare state that taxes heavily but enjoys high employment and general prosperity.

The OECD’s Revised Benchmark Definition of Foreign Direct Investment: Better data for better policy
Maria Borga (OECD Insights) Oct 19, 2015
Let’s start with a quiz. Which country is the second biggest direct investor in China?

You're Welcome: Fed's Kamin on Global Benefits of Low US Rates
Pedro Nicolaci da Costa (PIIE) Oct 19, 2015
The Federal Reserve's policy of keeping interest rates low for a prolonged period, including through purchases of government and mortgage bonds, has been broadly beneficial to the world economy, Fed economist Steven Kamin finds in new research.

Clueless in Europe
Ashoka Mody (Bloomberg View) Oct 19, 2015
Don't let a bunch of scolds dictate monetary policy.

In Search of the Cheap Oil Dividend
Mark Whitehouse (Bloomberg View) Oct 19, 2015
It's hard to see where Americans are spending money saved at the pump.

Brazil's Corruption Crackdown Can't Be Stopped
Mac Margolis (Bloomberg View) Oct 19, 2015
The effort will carry on, no matter who holds the gavel.

The Path to Carbon Pricing
Christine Lagarde and Jim Yong Kim (Project Syndicate) Oct 19, 2015
The transition to a cleaner future will require both government action and the right incentives for the private sector. At the center should be strong public policy that puts a price on carbon pollution.

The Trouble With Financial Bubbles
Howard Davies (Project Syndicate) Oct 19, 2015
Central bankers remain divided about when they should seek to prick asset bubbles, with some arguing that maintaining financial stability is too complex an objective. But we need our central bankers to make difficult decisions that require balancing potentially conflicting objectives, even if they are not always right.

The Disintegration of Europe
Philippe Legrain (Project Syndicate) Oct 19, 2015
It is often argued that the EU progresses through crises, because they focus minds on the overwhelming need for further integration. But such breakthroughs require at least four ingredients, all of which are currently missing.

Wheezing China Gut Punches Global Oil Market
Keith Johnson (FP) Oct 19, 2015
China’s disappointing economic growth isn’t just worrisome for Beijing — it’s also potentially very bad news for places as far apart as Texas, Alaska, and Scotland.

Japanese universities need brighter ideas
Sahoko Kaji (FT) Oct 20, 2015
If the country is to prosper, its young people have to punch above their weight.

Spectre of automation hangs over India
James Crabtree (FT) Oct 20, 2015
Modi’s push for investment in factories could be swiftly undone.

An Exploding Pension Crisis Feeds Brazil’s Political Turmoil
Simon Romero (NYT) Oct 20, 2015
Some Brazilians manage to collect multiple pensions totaling well over $100,000 a year, and other loopholes like the “Viagra effect” wreak havoc on the system.

Five Suggestions to Fix Europe’s Migration Mess
Matteo Garavoglia (Globalist) Oct 20, 2015
If properly integrated, migrants can benefit our societies.

OPEC's Fight Club
Liam Denning (Bloomberg View) Oct 20, 2015
Groucho Marx didn’t want to belong to any club that would accept him as a member. Do OPEC countries ever feel the same?

An Oasis of Sanity in a Frothy M&A Market
Tara Lachapelle (Bloomberg View) Oct 20, 2015
As the M&A market keeps trucking along at a record pace, there's always a risk that overheated dealmaking leads to frothy valuations and disappointing outcomes. Here's one possible mega-deal investors need not worry about: Western Digital and SanDisk.

Get Used to It. Low Rates Are Here to Stay.
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Oct 20, 2015
Central banks are powerless to push them higher.

Short-Term Talk, Long-Term Cost
Mark Roe (Project Syndicate) Oct 20, 2015
The idea that financial markets are too focused on the short term has gained considerable ground within much of the news media and among some academics in recent years, and now it is attracting political attention in the US. It is not difficult to see why; but it is important to understand why that could end badly.

Live Longer, Consume Less: Recipe for Slow Growth
Joergen Oerstroem Moeller (YaleGlobal) Oct 20, 2015
Longer life expectancy, uncertainty, environmental awareness are among five behaviors that reduce consumer spending

The Reports of Saudi Arabia’s Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated
John Sfakianakis (FP) Oct 20, 2015
Saudi Arabia's economy isn’t teetering on collapse. In fact, it’s healthier than it has been in decades.

The Myth of the African Land Grab
Till Buckner (FP) Oct 20, 2015
Are foreign investors really snatching up as much of Africa as they can? It’s not that simple.

The macro-micro conflict
Jon Danielsson, Morgane Fouché and Robert Macrae (VoxEU) Oct 20, 2015
There has always been conflict between macro- and microeconomic regulation. Microeconomic policy reigns supreme during good times, and macro during bad. This column explains that while the macro and micro objectives have always been present in regulatory design, their relative importance has varied according to the changing requirements of economic, financial and political cycles. The conflict between the two seems set to deepen and so, regardless of which ‘wins’, policymakers must not undermine the central bank's execution of monetary policy.

Europe’s banks face a difficult global retreat
John Gapper (FT) Oct 21, 2015
The simplest way to increase profits in a shrinking market is to cut costs.

Behind the gloss Moscow is a sad city
Guy Chazan (FT) Oct 21, 2015
Falling oil prices and western sanctions mean life is hard in the Russian capital.

Reasons to be bullish revisited
Laszlo Birinyi (FT) Oct 21, 2015
Markets are in a correction, not act one of a bear market.

A Rare-Earths Economics Lesson
WSJ Oct 21, 2015
How markets defeated China’s attempt at minerals mercantilism.

Are we No. 1? It depends.
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Oct 21, 2015
We excel in some things and not in others.

What Does China's GDP Reading Mean for the Fed? Depends on Whether They Buy It
Pedro Nicolaci da Costa (PIIE) Oct 21, 2015
Federal Reserve officials, in justifying their decision to hold off on interest rate increases in September, placed an unusual emphasis on uncertainty surrounding China's economic outlook.

Low Oil Prices, Conflict Weigh on Middle East’s Prospects
IMF Survey Oct 21, 2015
The Middle East and North Africa region continues to see subdued growth, owing to spreading and deepening regional conflict as well as lower oil prices, the IMF said in its latest regional assessment.

The Elements of Power in the Rare-Metal Age
David S. Abraham (Bloomberg View) Oct 21, 2015
Steve Jobs's other legacy: He reinvented global resource supply lines.

India and Pakistan Can Do Business
Bloomberg View Oct 21, 2015
A trade zone on the border could build ties between nuclear-armed neighbors.

Oil's Summer Holiday Is Over
Liam Denning (Bloomberg View) Oct 21, 2015
The oil price war has reached the gates -- specifically, the refinery gates. Expect casualties.

A Liquidity Risk, But not the One You Thought
Lisa Abramowicz (Bloomberg View) Oct 21, 2015
Which of the below statements is true: 1) It’s becoming more difficult to trade in U.S. credit markets; 2) There’s a growing amount of trading in U.S. credit markets.

Blowing It On the Wind
Bjørn Lomborg (Project Syndicate) Oct 21, 2015
When considering climate change, most people think wind turbines and solar panels are a big part of the solution. But, over the next 25 years, the contribution of solar and wind power to resolving the problem will be trivial – and the cost will be enormous.

Big Polluters, Pay Up
Stephen Leonard (Project Syndicate) Oct 21, 2015
As the world's poorest and most vulnerable populations suffer huge losses from climate change, the entities most responsible for the problem – the so-called "Big Polluters" – continue to reap billions in profits. This has to change.

Shedding some light on dark matter: Trade costs in services
James Anderson, Ingo Borchert, Aaditya Mattoo and Yoto V Yotov (VoxEU) Oct 21, 2015
Policy barriers to services trade comprise relatively opaque and hard-to-measure regulations. This column provides novel estimates that reveal that services trade barriers are large but have generally fallen over time, with pronounced differences across sectors and countries. Trade barriers have declined less for small economies and for sectors where initial borders were high.

Difficulties in being a China bear
Jennifer Hughes (FT) Oct 22, 2015
Problem is working out how events will unfold and how to invest.

How humans can seize control of markets
Gillian Tett (FT) Oct 22, 2015
Flash crashes affect even commodities markets hitherto considered dull such as corn.

Polish voters confront a historic choice
Tony Barber (FT) Oct 22, 2015
Economic plan resembles Orban’s Hungary policy and risks scaring investors.

Spain: Recovery position
Tobias Buck (FT) Oct 22, 2015
Mariano Rajoy thinks his party can win over voters and continue to lift the economy. But challenges lie ahead Read more >>

Efforts to Build TPP Support Ramp Up as Political Landscape Shifts
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 35 Oct 22, 2015
Officials from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) countries have been ramping up their efforts in recent weeks to build domestic support for the trade deal, ahead of the expected release of its final text and the subsequent launch of domestic ratification procedures.

Australian Parliament Set to Ratify China Trade Pact
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 35 Oct 22, 2015
The Australian Parliament is now expected to sign off on a trade agreement with China by year's end, after Labor and Liberal Party leaders confirmed that they had reached a deal on domestic labour safeguards to be incorporated into Canberra's migration policies.

US Treasury Department Revises Stance on Chinese Currency
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 35 Oct 22, 2015
The latest edition of the US Treasury Department's semi-annual report on international exchange rate policies found that China's currency "remains below its appropriate medium-term valuation," marking a distinct shift by Washington from past characterisations of the Renminbi as being "significantly undervalued."

Could the TPP Actually Divide Asia?
Shihoko Goto (Diplomat) Oct 22, 2015
The Trans-Pacific Partnership may not prove the force stability many assume.

Troubles at Walmart, IBM and the New American Century
Peter Morici (Globalist) Oct 22, 2015
America’s 20th century business icons are in trouble — but that’s no reason to worry.

The Drastic Step to Save Puerto Rico
Bloomberg View Oct 22, 2015
The commonwealth's slow-motion train wreck is speeding up.

Can Treasuries and Bunds Keep in Lockstep?
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Oct 22, 2015
A close relationship may be about to become far less predictable.

The Case for Externships
Ayesha Khanna (Project Syndicate) Oct 22, 2015
The industries of the future will require people creative and innovative enough to work with technology, not be replaced by it. By helping companies solve their real-world problems, secondary-school students can prepare themselves to meet the challenges of that future.

China’s Economy at the Fifth Plenum
Andrew Sheng and Xiao Geng (Project Syndicate) Oct 22, 2015
Recent stock-market volatility, together with slowing GDP growth, has caused many to question whether China's leaders will uphold their commitment to reform at the upcoming Fifth Plenum. Fortunately, there is plenty of reason to believe that they will.

Pacific Trade Deal Needs to Harmonize With Sustainable Development Goals
Shuaihua Wallace Cheng (YaleGlobal) Oct 22, 2015
Transpacific Partnership boosts UN Sustainable Development Goals in some ways and undermines them in others.

Europe’s trade policy for solar panels
Meredith Crowley and Huasheng Song (VoxEU) Oct 22, 2015
Europe has a trade policy for solar panels that is designed to level the playing field between Europe and countries like China. This column assesses the EU’s stance. Antidumping policy is supposed to promote a fair competitive environment between domestic import-competing and foreign exporting firms. However, evidence suggests that publicly listed Chinese private sector firms experienced large losses under Europe's import restrictions, while state-owned enterprises experienced little or no adverse impact. Rather than fostering fair competition in green energy products, Europeans have unintentionally tilted the playing field against the Chinese private sector in favour of the state.

Union power and inequality
Florence Jaumotte and Carolina Osorio Buitron (VoxEU) Oct 22, 2015
Inequality in advanced economies has risen considerably since the 1980s, largely driven by the increase of top earners’ income shares. This column revisits the drivers of inequality, emphasising the role played by changes in labour market institutions. It argues that the decline in union density has been strongly associated with the rise of top income inequality and discusses the multiple channels through which unionisation matters for income distribution.

Pro-Competition Regulation can Help Fintech and Virtual Currencies Fulfil Potential
Jem Bendell (EFR) Oct 22, 2016
Fintech start-ups attract investment but their future depends on policy makers and regulators levelling the playing field. Promoting fair competition with incumbents is key. This could be extended to currencies, so an ecosystem of complementary currencies would grow alongside the Euro and Pound. The economic and political benefits would be substantial.

The Cash(less) Antagonism
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo and Leonidas Efthymiou (EFR) Oct 22, 2016
Today there is widespread speculation as to which new financial technology will disrupt cash. Our understanding of the past and future of payments, however, is characterised through an antagonism between cash and cashless systems. This apparent contradiction suggests that the future of retail payments is a complex interplay of forces deeply rooted in consumer preferences, geographic and cultural elements, as well as government legislation; which together diminish the likelihood of realising the potential of any broad scope futuristic vision.

Why Free Markets Make Fools of Us
Cass R. Sunstein (NYRB) Oct 22, 2015
George Akerlof and Robert Shiller believe that once we understand human psychology, we will be a lot less enthusiastic about free markets.

The fading of an ageing world order
Michael Fullilove (FT) Oct 23, 2015
As western nations retire from the global stage, Russia and China step up.

TPP Needs to Mesh With Sustainable Development Goals
Shuaihua Wallace Cheng (Asia Sentinel) Oct 23, 2015
Trade pact boosts some UN Sustainable Development Goals, undermines others.

What China's Rate Cut Will and Won't Do
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Oct 23, 2015
The central bank's move will help the domestic economy. But not instantly.

The War Over the Periodic Table
David S. Abraham (Bloomberg View) Oct 23, 2015
Control of minerals used in tech will reshape global business.

The Commodities Boom Is Dead. Long Live the Commodities Boom.
David Fickling (Bloomberg View) Oct 23, 2015
What a trip to the supermarket can tell you about the future of raw materials.

Schäuble’s Gathering Storm
Yanis Varoufakis (Project Syndicate) Oct 23, 2015
Nothing short of macroeconomically significant institutional reforms will stabilize Europe. And only a pan-European democratic alliance of citizens can generate the groundswell needed to overcome German resistance and ensure that such reforms take root.

Wasted Drugs and the Creation of Superbugs
Jim O'Neill (Project Syndicate) Oct 23, 2015
The G-7 countries' health ministers recently agreed to tackle antimicrobial resistance. An especially promising target is drug wastage: By lowering the exposure of bacteria to drugs, we can slow the rise of drug resistance and keep our current medicines useful for longer.

The ECB’s quantitative easing programme
Angus Armstrong, Francesco Caselli, Jagjit Chadha and Wouter den Haan (VoxEU) Oct 23, 2015
Will the risk-sharing arrangements within the ECB’s quantitative easing programme reduce its effectiveness? The views of leading UK-based macroeconomists are exactly evenly divided on this question, according to the latest survey by the Centre for Macroeconomics. The responses reported in this column suggest that this divergence reflects differences in views about the channels through which quantitative easing operates.

Causes and consequences of persistently low interest rates
Charles Bean (VoxEU) Oct 23, 2015
Interest rates are at historic lows in advanced nations around the world and markets expect them to stay low for years. This column introduces the 17th CEPR-ICMB Geneva Report on the World Economy, “Low for Long? Causes and Consequences of Persistently Low Interest Rates”. Written by four world-renowned macroeconomists, the report suggests that real interest rates will eventually return to more normal levels, but in the meantime deflationary traps are more likely, as are financial boom-bust cycles.

Low for Long? Causes and Consequences of Persistently Low Interest Rates
Charles Bean, Christian Broda , Takatoshi Ito, Randall Kroszner (VoxEU) Oct 23, 2015
Interest rates are at historic lows in advanced nations around the world and markets expect them to stay low for years. Written by four world-renowned macroeconomists, the 17th CEPR-ICMB Geneva Report on the World Economy, “Low for Long? Causes and Consequences of Persistently Low Interest Rates”, suggests that real interest rates will eventually return to more normal levels, but in the meantime deflationary traps are more likely, as are financial boom-bust cycles.

Has Britain Sold Out to Beijing?
Isabel Hilton, Jonathan Fenby and Robert Barnett (FP) Oct 23, 2015
Pandering for Chinese trade and investment may cause trouble down the line, say experts.

Out of fashion
Economist Oct 24, 2015
Investors have become pessimistic about emerging markets.

Nigeria: A New History of a Turbulent Century, by Richard Bourne
Maggie Fox (FT) Oct 25, 2015
How Africa’s giant survived against the odds.

Draghi must be more unconventional
Wolfgang Munchau (FT) Oct 25, 2015
The eurozone’s economic recovery is again weakening before it really started Read more >>

South Africa: Barriers to entry
Andrew England (FT) Oct 25, 2015
The economy is creaking, the ruling ANC is mired in scandal and students are protesting over inequality Read more >>

Modi’s mantra to ‘Make in India’
Anthony P. D’Costa (EAF) Oct 25, 2015
Modi’s economic strategy has been straightforward: appeal to foreign investors from China, Japan and the large Indian diaspora abroad.

Who's Afraid of China?
Mark Whitehouse (Bloomberg View) Oct 25, 2015
Most lenders are pulling out except those based in the U.S.

Indonesia Needs to Join TPP
Bloomberg view Oct 25, 2015
Seeking membership would show the country is truly open for business.

The end of the Merkel era is within sight
Gideon Rachman (FT) Oct 26, 2015
As the placid surface of German society is disturbed, the positives of immigration are hard to see.

‘Deflationary boom’ hope as China slows
Diana Choyleva (FT) Oct 26, 2015
Fall in Chinese demand would spark rise in western spending.

Global Corporate Bond Market Looking Junkier
Pedro Nicolaci da Costa (PIIE) Oct 26, 2015
For years, financial markets have been fretting about "looming" Federal Reserve interest rate hikes that keep getting pushed further into the future. One of investors' greatest fears is what could happen to corporate bonds, which experienced a boom linked to aggressive stimulus measures from world central banks, when the Fed began to tighten monetary policy for the first time in nearly a decade.

Greek Politics: Economic Crisis or Crisis of Democracy?
Sofia Vasilopoulou and Daphne Halikiopoulou (WA) Oct 26, 2015
Energized by the country's economic crisis, Greece's political extremes are violently rocking the cradle of democracy and threatening its longstanding political order.

Jokowi and the Hopes for a More Dynamic Indonesia
Nigel Cory (Globalist) Oct 26, 2015
Indonesia’s Troubled Trade Relationship with the United States.

What the Business World Got Wrong about the Nature of Competition
Mark van Vugt (Evonomics) Oct 26, 2015
The global financial crisis has shaken the foundations of a long-dominant paradigm in economic theory, Homo economicus. This is the idea that individuals and firms make informed, rational judgments about risks and opportunities so as to maximise their pay-offs. The crisis has sparked the search for more accurate and scientific models to explain how people and firms behave in real life, and how financial markets do, and should, operate.

Avoiding the Financial Resource Curse
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Oct 26, 2015
Too much foreign capital hurts economic efficiency.

How to Kill a Debt Boom
Lisa Abramowicz (Bloomberg View) Oct 26, 2015
A murky and inefficient structure constrains leveraged lending.

What the Fed Will Do This Week
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Oct 26, 2015
A rate hike is off the table. But for how long?

What’s Wrong With Labor Markets?
Mauro F. Guillén (Project Syndicate) Oct 26, 2015
There have never been so many highly educated people in the world, yet the crises in Europe, the slow recovery in the US, and the rise of emerging economies are revealing hidden flaws in labor markets worldwide. Addressing them will require a broad range of policy interventions.

Poland’s Successful Losers
Jacek Rostowski (Project Syndicate) Oct 26, 2015
How can a government with the best economic record in Europe be humiliated at the polls by a Euroskeptic, nationalistic, and economically illiterate opposition – one deemed unelectable only a year ago? That is the question many Poles, and friends of Poland, are now asking, following the defeat of the Civic Platform government.

Viktor Orban Wades into Hungary’s Dark Waters
James Traub (FP) Oct 26, 2015
For a preview of what could happen if right-wing parties take over Europe, look east -- to Budapest.

Is China About to Gain Entry to the IMF’s Currency Country Club?
David Francis (FP) Oct 26, 2015
International Monetary Fund and Chinese officials are hinting the renminbi, Beijing’s currency, is about to be recognized as one of the world’s premier banknotes. Is this a reward for China’s economic liberalization?

On the greatness of the great moderation
Lola Gadea, Ana Gomez-Loscos and Gabriel Pérez-Quirós (VoxEU) Oct 26, 2015
The Great Moderation is one of the most important changes in the US business cycle since statistics where gathered. This column contributes three main ideas – that output volatility remains subdued despite the tumult created by the Great Recession, that the Great Moderation structural break is found when considering a long historical dataset, and that the nature of the volatility reduction associated with the Great Moderation is linked to the features of expansion phases, in particular, to the absence of high growth recoveries.

What happens if robots take the jobs? The impact of emerging technologies on employment and public policy
Darrell M. West (Brookings) Oct 26, 2015
Emerging technologies and their expected impact on the employment market of the future.

The upside of addressing climate change
Martin Wolf (FT) Oct 27, 2015
Moving to a credible path away from disaster is imaginable and economically beneficial.

Germany: Merkel opens door to her opponents
Stefan Wagstyl (FT) Oct 27, 2015
The chancellor’s ‘welcome Syrians’ response to migrant crisis may hasten her political demise.

Do not discount a run on sterling
Felix Martin (FT) Oct 27, 2015
Vulnerability lies in causes of UK’s large current account deficit.

The Fearmonger of Budapest
James Traub (FP) Oct 27, 2015
Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban has taken a people already wary of outsiders and whipped them into an anti-immigrant frenzy.

The Fed Needs to Get Its Story Straight
Pedro Nicolaci da Costa (PIIE/FP) Oct 27, 2015
In attempting to give markets and the public time to adjust to what would be the first rise in official borrowing costs in nearly a decade, American central bankers have bungled the message, leading to confusion and undue market volatility.

We need to talk about the SDGs
Brian Keeley (OECD Insights) Oct 27, 2015
Views vary on how much of a difference the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) actually made to the world.

There’s No Magic Bullet, But We Have the Tools to Reduce Inequality
Anit Mukherjee (CGD) Oct 27, 2015
Reducing inequality is front and center of the current economic policy agenda. Multilateral institutions like the IMF and the World Bank have accepted that high inequality leads to macroeconomic instability and lowers growth and that lower inequality helps make growth sustainable in the long run.

Escape from the World Bank
Devesh Kapur (CGD) Oct 27, 2015
The elephants in the room at the annual International Monetary Fund/World Bank meeting in Lima, Peru, were the China-inspired Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and New Development Bank (or “BRICS Development Bank,” as it was originally called). The reality is that over the next decade, these new institutions will not be huge lenders.

Should US Tech Companies Share Their "Source Code" with China?
Theodore H. Moran (PIIE) Oct 27, 2015
IBM and Microsoft have agreed to let the Chinese government review some of their proprietary source code in a secure setting, provoking criticism from the Obama administration and some technology companies that doing so will reopen the door to the Chinese campaign to force technology transfer to Chinese companies.

Weaker Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa Amid Deteriorating Global Conditions
IMF Survey Oct 27, 2015
Economic activity has weakened markedly in sub-Saharan Africa, and the strong growth momentum of recent years has dissipated in quite a few countries, the IMF said in its regional outlook.

Argentina's Promising Election
Bloomberg View Oct 27, 2015
South America's second-largest economy needs a new direction.

A Migration Agenda for the Private Sector
Khalid Koser (Project Syndicate) Oct 27, 2015
The private sector’s response to Europe’s refugee crisis has highlighted the role companies can play in managing immigration. But if the business community's involvement is to yield long-term benefits, it will have to extend well beyond the immediate emergency.

The Wrong War for Central Banking
Stephen S. Roach (Project Syndicate) Oct 27, 2015
Fixated on inflation targeting in a world without inflation, central banks have lost their way. With benchmark interest rates stuck at the dreaded zero bound, monetary policy has been transformed from an agent of price stability into an engine of financial instability.

Truth, Lies, and Venezuela
Ricardo Hausmann (Project Syndicate) Oct 27, 2015
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, seeking scapegoats for his country's economic collapse, has vowed to prosecute the author. This raises an important question: Can evil be fought by exposing the lies on which it is based and condemning those who propagate falsehood?

With Sanctions Lifting, What’s in Store for Iran’s Economy?
K@W Oct 27, 2015
Following an agreement to lift sanctions against Iran, European firms will be quick to pick up where they left off in 2012. But for U.S. companies, a 35-year absence means slower progress.

Entrepreneurship, conflict and growth: Evidence from Afghanistan
Tommaso Ciarli, Chiara Kofol and Carlo Menon (VoxEU) Oct 27, 2015
Though some studies propose that entrepreneurial activity increases during conflicts, macro evidence shows that a conflict is damaging to growth. This column argues that the conflict in Afghanistan did not contribute to economic development because it caused regressive structural changes at the micro level. It reduced employment opportunities and increased self-employment in activities that have low returns. To improve the economic resilience, self-employment in activities that are less affected by conflict should be stimulated.

Sometimes it’s not enough to give poor countries lots of foreign aid, study finds
Adam Taylor (WP) Oct 28, 2015
Understanding foreign aid is crucial to understanding the way the international system works. Unfortunately, measuring the amount of real change that development assistance creates is hard.

Beijing presses its narrative on the world
David Pilling (FT) Oct 28, 2015
China wants to say that its time is coming and that other nations must adjust accordingly.

Eastern European shale boom goes bust
Neil Buckley (FT) Oct 28, 2015
Unfavourable regulatory and tax regimes as well as hydraulic fracturing bans hit industry.

EM sell-off enters more dangerous phase
Bhanu Baweja (FT) Oct 28, 2015
Investors are betting on balance sheet strength in rapid decline.

Japan’s economy: Credibility on the line
Robin Harding (FT) Oct 28, 2015
The Bank of Japan’s governor must decide whether to expand quantitative easing or accept it is not working.

Is QE Bad for Business Investment? No Way!
Joseph E. Gagnon (PIIE) Oct 28, 2015
In this week's Wall Street Journal, Michael Spence and Kevin Warsh say the Federal Reserve's policy of bond buys, or quantitative easing (QE), is responsible for sluggish business investment in recent years. There is no logical or factual basis for their claim. Indeed, logic and facts point strongly in the opposite direction.

The Developing World’s Obesity Problem
Globalist Oct 28, 2015
The developing world’s obesity rate is gradually catching up with developed nations.

4 Takeaways From the Fed's Announcement
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Oct 28, 2015
Leaving open the possibility of a rate hike in December could increase market volatility.

Apple's Chinese Miracle Is Over
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Oct 28, 2015
CEO Tim Cook says China's slowdown isn't affecting sales. The numbers tell a different story.

China Can't Kick Habit of Worshiping GDP
Justin Fox (Bloomberg View) Oct 28, 2015
The unnaturally smooth growth numbers raise suspicions.

Chile’s Uncertain Future
Martin Feldstein (Project Syndicate) Oct 28, 2015
Chile’s economic performance has been the strongest in South America, and it's no surprise that he country is the continent's only OECD member. So why have Chile’s voters elected a president and a parliament that many fear could jeopardize this success.

The Pain in Spain
Simon Tilford (Project Syndicate) Oct 28, 2015
After eight consecutive quarters of economic expansion, Spain has become the eurozone’s latest poster child for austerity and structural reforms. But the country's recovery is not quite what it seems, and there is scant evidence that its policy choices account for what progress has been made.

The Despotic Temptation
Ana Palacio (Project Syndicate) Oct 28, 2015
Unable to contain the chaos and violence engulfing the Middle East and North Africa, Western leaders are once again succumbing to the idea that sometimes the only way to ensure stability is to support a dictator. But tyranny is never genuinely stable, and certainly not in the long term.

Innovation with Chinese Characteristics
Martin Neil Baily and Jonathan Woetzel (Project Syndicate) Oct 28, 2015
China’s GDP growth has dominated global economic news this year. But, while concerns about growth certainly merit attention, they should be viewed in the context of China’s longer-term trajectory, especially its emergence as a global hub of innovation.

Hungary’s 500-Year-Old Victim Complex
James Traub (FP) Oct 28, 2015
From the Habsburgs to Hitler, Hungarians have always viewed themselves as at the mercy of history. Is that why they love their strongman prime minister?

Selected Takeaways from the ECB’s Sintra Forum on “Inflation and Unemployment in Europe”
Vítor Constâncio, Philipp Hartmann and Oreste Tristani (VoxEU) Oct 28, 2015
Today the European Central Bank publishes the proceedings of its 2015 Sintra Forum on Central Banking (ECB 2015). In this column the organisers highlight some of the main points from the discussions, including the candid debate between Forum participants that favour a faster pace of structural reforms and the ones that would like to see a more aggressive monetary policy response to real economy developments.

Globo story highlights role of incentives
Dan McCrum (FT) Oct 29, 2015
Change needed to help spot and stop financial mis-statements.

If Merkel falls, Europe will unravel
Philip Stephens (FT) Oct 29, 2015
She has been the rock of certainty. Without her the fractures would multiply.

Greece: Dynastic divisions
Peter Spiegel (FT) Oct 29, 2015
After last month’s victory by Syriza, can the Mitsotakis political dynasty unite to revive New Democracy

Polish Elections: Their Likely Effect on Economic Growth
Simeon Djankov (PIIE) Oct 29, 2015
Economic growth in Poland is likely to slow down as a result of new policies that the incoming government has vowed to implement. The center-right Law and Justice party won the October 25 elections with nearly 40 percent of the vote, becoming the first to win a parliamentary majority since the fall of communism in 1989.

The Graying of China
WSJ Oct 29, 2015
Facing a demographic crisis, Beijing abandons its one-child policy.

TTIP Negotiators Push for Trade Deal Before Obama Presidency Ends
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 36 Oct 29, 2015
Negotiators for a bilateral trade and investment pact between the EU and US are hoping to strike a deal before US President Barack Obama leaves office in early 2017, with officials reporting a major milestone on Friday in their talks on goods market access.

WTO Talks: Developing Countries Propose Reforms on Agriculture, Cotton, Safeguards
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 36 Oct 29, 2015
Three separate developing country groups have tabled negotiating proposals on agriculture at the WTO, only weeks ahead of the global trade body's tenth ministerial conference in Nairobi, Kenya. However, trade sources cautioned that the dwindling package of issues on the negotiating table could limit the chances of progress on the broader agenda that developing countries have highlighted for action.

Implementation of Trade Facilitation Deal Could Yield Major Benefits, WTO Report Says
Bridges, Volume 19, Number 36 Oct 29, 2015
Bringing the WTO’s Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) into force could boost global merchandise exports by US$1 trillion per year, according to a new report issued by the global trade body earlier this week.

Today's War Against Deflation Will Make Us Poorer
Frank Shostak (Mises Daily) Oct 29, 2015
Contrary to the popular view, a fall in the growth momentum of prices is always good news for the wealth generating process and hence for the economy.

The Quantitative Easing Experiment Is Failing
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Oct 29, 2015
Draghi risks losing credibility if he doesn't deliver in December.

The Climate’s Point of No Return
Javier Solana (Project Syndicate) Oct 29, 2015
When it comes to climate change, the world has reached a point of no return. That may sound ominous, but it is precisely where we need to be: unable to continue retreading old ground, we must resolutely set our future path.

The Tragedy of Ben Bernanke
J. Bradford DeLong (Project Syndicate) Oct 29, 2015
It is difficult to read the former US Federal Reserve chair’s new memoir as anything other than a tragedy. It is the story of a man who may have been the best-prepared person in the world for the job he was given, but who soon found himself outmatched by its challenges.

Putting Public Health on the Map
Christopher J. Murray (Project Syndicate) Oct 29, 2015
Since its start in the 1990s, the Global Burden of Disease project has helped inform many policy debates and spurred action to improve health. But it could do much more if it were able to provide more detailed breakdowns of data.

The Case for the TPP
Michael J. Boskin (Project Syndicate) Oct 29, 2015
Following the conclusion of the Trans-Pacific Partnership by 12 Pacific Rim countries, debates about the costs and benefits of trade liberalization are intensifying. Failure to ratify the TPP would not only deprive citizens of higher incomes; it would also deal a damaging blow to international cooperation.

Resurrecting Glass-Steagall
Simon Johnson (Project Syndicate) Oct 29, 2015
Opponents of enacting a modern version of the Glass-Steagall act, the Depression-era legislation that separated commercial and investment banking activities in the US, rely on three main arguments. None of them is convincing.

Europe’s Politics of Dystopia
Nouriel Roubini (Project Syndicate) Oct 29, 2015
The recent victory of the conservative Law and Justice party in Poland confirms a recent trend in Europe: the rise of illiberal state capitalism, led by populist right-wing authoritarians. Failure to act decisively now will lead to the eventual failure of the EU and the rise of dystopian nationalist regimes.

What Next for the Trans-Pacific Partnership?
Francisco J. Sanchez (Diplomat) Oct 29, 2015
With the TPP, the Asia-Pacific has the opportunity to shape the future of international commerce.

Shuttered Factories and Rants Against the Roma
James Traub (FP) Oct 29, 2015
Hungary's Roma communities face increasing prejudice and abuse at the hands of the political establishment.

Economic crises and mortality
Christopher J. Ruhm (VoxEU) Oct 29, 2015
Conventional wisdom tells us that health deteriorates when the economy weakens and improves when it strengthens. Some research tentatively agrees, but there is a marked dearth of challenges and robust research. This column presents new evidence suggesting that the reductions in mortality occurring during typical economic downturns also occur in periods of crisis, adding useful caveats for different types of downturns and crises.

Internationalising the currency while leveraging massively: the case of China
Alicia García-Herrero (Bruegel) Oct 29, 2015
This paper reviews the steps that China has taken towards financial reform with a particular focus on capital account liberalisation and internationalisation of the use of the renminbi.

The systemic roots of Russia’s recession
Marek Dabrowski (Bruegel) Oct 30, 2015
To understand the deep causes behind Russia's recession, we must look at the history of the Russian transition and its partial reversal.

The World Bank Threatens Free Markets in Peru
Simon Wilson Oct 30, 2015
Peru is a place where if you want to do something no-one, especially not the government, is going to stop you.

G20 Economies: Rebalancing for More Durable Growth
IMF Survey Oct 30, 2015
The Group of Twenty (G-20) advanced and emerging market economies has made progress in reducing their large external current account imbalances and some progress on internal imbalances. However, greater policy efforts across the membership are needed for stronger and more sustainable growth, says a newly published IMF analysis.

The Merkel Era Is Far From Over
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Oct 30, 2015
The German chancellor won't be toppled by the refugee crisis.

Japan’s TPP Transformation
Yuriko Koike (Project Syndicate) Oct 30, 2015
The signing of the Trans-Pacific Partnership is perhaps the boldest step that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has taken in his efforts to revitalize Japan, because it will force long-cossetted industries and the agricultural sector to innovate and compete in new ways. Nothing less will enable Japan's economy to regain its vigor.

A Special Moment for Special Drawing Rights
José Antonio Ocampo (Project Syndicate) Oct 30, 2015
The recent annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank in Lima, Peru, were dominated by talk of the weakness of several emerging and developing economies. But the discussion focused very little on one key cause: the global monetary system and its continued reliance on the US dollar as the primary reserve currency.

New Light on Income Inequality
Andrés Velasco (Project Syndicate) Oct 30, 2015
In developing and emerging economies, one charitable explanation for the poor quality of public debate about income inequality is that data on income distribution are often unavailable or dubious. A new set of studies could help put an end to all that.

Exchange rates still matter for trade
Daniel Leigh, Weicheng Lian, Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro & Viktor Tsyrennikov (VoxEU) Oct 30, 2015
A number of studies argue that exchange rates matter far less than they used to for trade, or even that they have disconnected altogether. This column presents new research suggesting that, in fact, there is little sign of a disconnect in the relationship between exchange rates and exports and imports; exchange rates still matter for trade. The findings indicate that 10% real effective exchange rate depreciation implies, on average, a 1.5% of GDP increase in real net exports.

The Fraught Politics of the TPP
Koichi Hamada (Project Syndicate) Oct 31, 2015
If ratified and implemented, the just-agreed Trans-Pacific Partnership will have a monumental impact on trade and capital flows along the Pacific Rim, with massive benefits for all 12 countries involved. Unfortunately, the highly charged politics of trade has left the TPP's future uncertain.