News & Commentary:

Articles/Commentary

Global Growth Cools, Leaving Scars of ’08 Unhealed
Peter S. Goodman (NYT) Dec 1, 2018
Less than a year ago, every major economy was expanding at once. Now, the slowdown holds the potential to intensify the sense of grievance roiling many societies.

Trump and Xi at the G-20: Why bilateralism won’t work
Adam Triggs (Brookings)_ Dec 1, 2018
Ten years ago, G-20 countries displayed an unprecedented level of multilateral cooperation in response to the global financial crisis. How times have changed. This weekend’s G-20 summit in Buenos Aires will look very different. Cooperation has been replaced with confrontation, solidarity with suspicion, and multilateralism with bilateralism.

The G20’s Africa Problem
Cobus van Staden (Project Syndicate) Dec 1, 2018
Although the G20 has made a limited effort to broaden its engagement with Africa in recent years, it has yet to include Africans in discussions of global issues that bear directly on their own economic prospects. Yet by consistently treating the region as a ward instead of a coequal partner, the international community is undermining its own future interests.

Market liquidity, leverage, and regulation ten years after the crisis
Tobias Adrian and John Kiff (VoxEU) Dec 5, 2018
The financial system has undergone far-reaching changes since the 2008 Global Crisis. This column casts those changes in terms of shifts in the way financial intermediaries manage their balance sheets, and also discusses the regulatory reform agenda and reviews the impact of regulations on market liquidity and credit availability. The current evidence suggests that the financial system has become safer, at limited unintended cost. The financial system has undergone far-reaching changes since the 2008 Global Crisis. This column casts those changes in terms of shifts in the way financial intermediaries manage their balance sheets, and also discusses the regulatory reform agenda and reviews the impact of regulations on market liquidity and credit availability. The current evidence suggests that the financial system has become safer, at limited unintended cost.

A New Social Contract
Nemat Shafik (F&D) Dec 1, 2018
Overcoming fears of technology and globalization means rethinking the rights and obligations of citizenship.

Reimagining Social Protection
Michal Rutkowski (F&D) Dec 1, 2018
New systems are needed that do not rely on standard employment contracts.

Hardly Anyone Is Too Poor to Share
Michael Cichon (F&D) Dec 1, 2018
A basic level of social protection is affordable nearly everywhere.

Shifting Tides
Nicholas Barr (F&D) Dec 1, 2018
Dramatic social changes mean the welfare state is more necessary than ever.

Seeking Balance
Ken Wills (F&D) Dec 1, 2018
China strives to adapt social protection to the needs of a market economy.

Targeting the Poor
Rema Hanna, Adnan Khan, and Benjamin Olken (F&D) Dec 1, 2018
Developing economies face special challenges in delivering social protection.

The Case for Universal Social Protection
Isabel Ortiz (F&D) Dec 1, 2018
Everyone faces vulnerabilities during their lifetime.

Return of the Bond Vigilante
Ramana Ramaswamy (F&D) Dec 1, 2018
Will markets coerce fiscal policy again?

The ‘Madman’ Behind Trump’s Trade Theory
Annie Lowrey (Atlantic) Dec 1, 2018
Peter Navarro—a business-school professor, a get-rich guru, a former Peace Corps member, and a former Democrat—is among the most important generals in Trump’s trade war.

Britain should not fear a WTO Brexit
Priti Patel (FT) Dec 2, 2018
Theresa May’s deal is simply not ‘Leave’ and should be rejected by MPs.

Trump’s China Trade Truce
WSJ Dec 2, 2018
The key to a larger deal will be enforcement of Chinese promises.

Nafta Suicide Note
WSJ Dec 2, 2018
Trump threatens to give Nancy Pelosi even more political leverage over his new trade deal.

Stop attacking the Fed, Mr. President
Robert J. Samuelson (WP) Dec 2, 2018
Presidents have blamed the Fed for decades -- but never before so publicly.

The US-China trade war is on hold
Economist Dec 2, 2018
Donald Trump and Xi Jinping agree a fragile truce at the G20 summit.

What the looming US recession means for Asia
Adam Triggs (EAF) Dec 2, 2018
All the indicators suggest that the next US recession is right around the corner. It is a matter of when, not if, and the implications for Asia are significant. The region best get ready now.

OPEC Might Try to Kick Saudi Arabia When It’s Down
Julian Lee (Bloomberg View) Dec 2, 2018
The kingdom chose Trump over OPEC back in June. Now, the rest of the producer group may want payback.

Sell-off shunts some EMs into bargain territory
Christian Déséglise (FT) Dec 3, 2018
If Brazil achieves even a watered-down version of its reforms, it could surprise on the upside.

Trade truce provides time for Beijing to stabilise
Gavyn Davies (FT) Dec 3, 2018
As the US economy slows down, China will be pivotal for global growth in 2019.

Asian respect for teachers leads the world
Sunny Varkey (FT) Dec 3, 2018
In countries where pupils respect teachers, school achievement scores are highest.

Japan’s struggle with a rising China
Gideon Rachman (FT) Dec 3, 2018
Shinzo Abe will reduce tensions if he can but the Asian superpower is a potent threat.

US-China trade truce shows who holds the upper hand
Jamil Anderlini (FT) Dec 3, 2018
Beijing has agreed to many concessions but Trump has merely given up very little.

Beijing moves to cement influence over world’s financial markets
James Kynge (FT) Dec 3, 2018
Inflows into China’s stocks and bonds have caught up with foreign direct investment.

Trump’s trade war: which of China’s neighbours are set to profit?
Steve Johnson (FT) Dec 3, 2018
Despite some collateral damage, the spat could be a blessing in disguise for some countries.

The next move on the oil price depends on Iran
Nick Butler (FT) Dec 3, 2018
The effect of increased US sanctions will sway Opec’s decision on cutting supply.

Can anything hold back China’s economy?
Lawrence H. Summers (WP) Dec 3, 2018
The United States can bluster but it cannot, in an open world, suppress the Chinese economy.

A China-U.S. truce on trade only scratches the surface of a broader conflict
John Pomfret (WP) Dec 3, 2018
On a deeper level, the truce is between competing factions within the Trump administration that disagree fundamentally over how to pursue relations with China..

The Global Carbon Tax Revolt
WSJ Dec 3, 2018
The French are the latest to refuse to sacrifice growth for green piety.

Democrats, Free Trade Is Your Destiny
James Bacchus (WSJ) Dec 3, 2018
Party leaders try to appeal to aggrieved workers in smokestack industries. But the base has changed.

Trump and Xi serve up trade war truce comfort food
Gordon Watts (AT) Dec 3, 2018
Ceasefire deal over dinner eases US-China tensions and global fears, as well as boosting major Asian markets. But will it last?

The international role of the euro
Konstantinos Efstathiou and Francesco Papadia (Bruegel) Dec 3, 2018
The authors assess whether the euro area should pursue a greater international role for the euro, as outlined by European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker, and how it might go about doing so.

Russia's Challenge: Reassuring Markets that Inflation Is at Bay
Madi Sarsenbayev (PIIE) Dec 3, 2018
The standard advice given to emerging-market countries often is as simple as it is challenging to follow. The International Monetary Fund (IMF)—reflecting the consensus view of leading economists—has long argued, for example, that emerging markets should avoid fixed exchange rates and allow their currencies to float, even at the risk of volatilities that could harm trade, access to credit markets, and the ability to repay debts. Another factor in the “fear of floating,” a term first coined by Calvo and Reinhart, is that the currency depreciation that results from floating exchange rates fuels inflation. To counter that concern, the IMF and other economists counsel emerging economies to adopt strict inflation targeting, mainly by raising interest rates.

The Fed's Policy Implementation Framework
Joseph E. Gagnon (PIIE) Dec 3, 2018
The minutes of the November 2018 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC or Fed) cover a lengthy discussion on possible changes to the policy tools and procedures the Fed uses to control money-market interest rates. The Fed appears to be moving toward the proposal that I made with Brian Sack in a 2014 PIIE Policy Brief. Our proposal would give the Fed firmer control of the most important short-term interest rates in the economy while saving taxpayers money and keeping the payments system safe and liquid.

A Planet at Risk Requires Multilateral Action
Signe Krogstrup and Maurice Obstfeld (IMF) Dec 3, 2018
The COP-21 Paris Agreement limiting greenhouse gas emissions was a major achievement on the road to meeting the threat of climate change. But as the evidence becomes increasingly unambiguous that human activity is destabilizing the Earth’s climate and biosphere, policymakers will need to do more. The inherently shared nature of the threat underlines the need for closer and more comprehensive international cooperation to preserve the habitat in which human life has thrived.

Engineering Inflation: For the Fed, the Time Is Now
Jeremie Banet (PIMCO) Dec 3, 2018
With unemployment low and the U.S. economy enjoying a fiscal “sugar rush,” we think the odds of successfully engineering an inflation overshoot look pretty good – and that is pretty rare.

How Safe Are Europe’s Banks? Right Now, It’s Hard to Tell
Bloomberg View Dec 3, 2018
The EU’s stress-testing rules aren’t strong enough.

Trump Deserves Some Credit for a Truce With China
Tyler Cowen (Bloomberg View) Dec 3, 2018
At least the two sides are talking instead of sweeping everything under the rug.

Trump-Xi Give Markets the Most They Could Have Expected
John Authers (Bloomberg View) Dec 3, 2018
The trade truce offered a good excuse for investors to take some extra risks. Also, less red tape boosts stocks, and Mexico has a new president.

G-20 Gives Markets a Short-Term Win
Mohamed Aly El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Dec 3, 2018
China and the U.S. reached an agreement to freeze trade tariffs for three months. But that’s about it.

The ECB’s Santa Claus Ain't Coming to Town
Ferdinando Giugliano (Bloomberg View) Dec 3, 2018
With Europe’s economy faltering, there are still gifts that Mario Draghi could hand out this month. It’ll be a surprise if he reaches for them.

China’s Bonds Get a $2.5 Trillion Test Run
Francesco Garzarelli (Bloomberg View) Dec 3, 2018
Should the country join the Global Agg bond index, as expected, Chinese yields may have much more impact on the world — and vice versa.

Leveraged Loans Take a Much-Needed Breather
Brian Chappatta (Bloomberg View) Dec 3, 2018
The hottest debt market has cooled off, which is better for investors in the long run.

Worry Less About Inflation and More About Recession
Ramesh Ponnuru (Bloomberg View) Dec 3, 2018
Here are several reasons to be concerned about how the Fed will respond to the next downturn.

Trump’s Tariffs Won’t Help Trump’s Voters
Karl W Smith (Bloomberg View) Dec 3, 2018
Some conservatives say worker welfare is more important than economic growth. They’re wrong.

Beyond GDP
Joseph E. Stiglitz (Project Syndicate) Dec 3, 2018
What we measure affects what we do. If we focus only on material wellbeing – on, say, the production of goods, rather than on health, education, and the environment – we become distorted in the same way that these measures are distorted; we become more materialistic.

Can the World Bank Redeem Itself?
Devesh Kapur and Arvind Subramanian (Project Syndicate) Dec 3, 2018
Development outcomes depend on poor countries’ external economic environment, which is shaped by the policies of the major economies. And when it comes to promoting sound policies, the World Bank has fallen far short in recent decades, exemplified by three major intellectual sins of omission.

The Rise of the “Petroyuan”
John A. Mathews and Mark Selden (Project Syndicate) Dec 3, 2018
For the past decade, China’s strategy for internationalizing the renminbi has involved greater reliance on the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights as an alternative international reserve currency. But the launch of renminbi-denominated oil trading this year suggests that China will now pursue de-dollarization head-on.

How to End Venezuela’s Nightmare
Ricardo Hausmann (Project Syndicate) Dec 3, 2018
Venezuela’s problems will not be solved without regime change. And that could – and should – happen after January 10, when the international community will no longer recognize the legitimacy of Nicolás Maduro's presidency.

Leverage-Induced Fire Sales and Stock Market Crashes
Jiangze Bian, Zhiguo He, Kelly Shue and Hao Zhou (VoxChina) Dec 3, 2018
The authors find that margin investors heavily sell their holdings when their account-level leverage edges toward the maximum leverage limits. Stocks that are disproportionately held by accounts close to leverage limits experience high selling pressure and abnormal price declines that subsequently reverse over the next 40 trading days. Unregulated shadow-financed margin accounts contributed more to the market crash even though these shadow accounts had higher leverage limits and held a smaller fraction of market assets

Japan’s age wave: Challenges and solutions
David Bloom, Paige Kirby, JP Sevilla and Andrew Stawasz (VoxEU) Dec 3, 2018
Worldwide ageing trends are steering global demographics into uncharted territory, transforming populations and societies around the globe. Japan is leading the way in this growth wave as the world’s oldest population and is now grappling with the substantial socioeconomic burdens an ageing population places on society. This column discusses the coming challenges associated with population ageing alongside plausible solutions. While there is no magic bullet for these challenges, there is scope to devise a multi-pronged solutions portfolio of complementary initiatives that includes a number of measures to promote and protect elderly health.

A Review of the Fed’s Unconventional Monetary Policy
Glenn D. Rudebusch (FRBSF Econ Letter) Dec 3, 2018
The Federal Reserve has typically used a short-term interest rate as the policy tool for achieving its macroeconomic goals. However, with short-term rates constrained near zero for much of the past decade, the Fed was impelled to use two unconventional monetary policy tools: forward guidance and quantitative easing. These tools likely strengthened the economic recovery and helped return inflation to the Fed’s target—although their full impact remains uncertain.

How Well Equipped Are Major Economies for the Next Downturn?
Erik Nelson and Abigail Kinnaman (WF) Dec 3, 2018
In this report, we develop a framework to assess monetary and fiscal policy capacity for the U.S., Eurozone, U.K., Japan and Canada, while we also discuss the potential implications of our findings for the global economy and for fixed income and currency markets.

Modinomics has yet to deliver for many in India
FT View Dec 4, 2018
The country’s economic growth has been squandered on symbolic projects.

US-China trade ceasefire is welcome but fragile
FT View Dec 4, 2018
The chance that Beijing will rapidly adopt wholesale changes is small.

EU needs a bigger toolbox to safeguard bond market
Michael Heise (FT) Dec 4, 2018
Concept of sovereign insurance avoids burden of debt mutualisation and austerity regimes.

Trump and Xi must negotiate a careful trade deal
Raghuram Rajan (FT) Nov 4, 2018
Making China feel like a country under siege risks causing cold, or even hot, war.

The ECJ’s Brexit opinion is sound
David Allen Green (FT) Nov 4, 2018
But the path to Britain revoking Article 50 would be a tortuous one.

Opec: why Trump has Saudi Arabia over a barrel
David Sheppard and Ed Crooks (FT) Dec 4, 2018
Riyadh will struggle to boost prices now that US is the world’s largest oil producer.

You Don’t Understand Tariffs, Man
NYT Dec 4, 2018
Trump blinked on trade with China — and it was the right thing to do. Just ask the markets.

‘I Am a Tariff Man’
WSJ Dec 4, 2018
It’s a bird, it’s a plane. No, it’s the President of the United States.

Reading the Tea Leaves on Trade With China
Jeff Moon (WSJ) Dec 4, 2018
Talks will take place behind closed doors. Here’s what to watch to gauge their progress.

Yuan could become next battleground in Trump-Xi ruckus
William Pesek (AT) Dec 4, 2018
Both leaders accept that a truce was called in the China-US tariff war during their meeting at the G20 in Buenos Aires. Could a weakening yuan reignite it?

Is sustainable profitable?
Brian Caplen (Banker) Dec 4, 2018
Banks are being encouraged to sign up to sustainable development. But will the strategy hurt or enhance profits?

Iran’s economic reforms in retreat
Djavad Salehi Isfahani (Brookings) Dec 4, 2018
If the intended aim of the new round of U.S. sanctions were to change Iran’s behavior, it already has. Just not the behavior the Trump team had in mind—Iran abandoning its pursuit of pro-market economic reforms. President Hassan Rouhani, who was elected twice, in 2013 and 2017, on a platform of liberal economic reforms, has piece by piece put aside his reform agenda. Because of the economic havoc wreaked by the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions, he finds himself in the odd position of overseeing price controls, punishing commodity hoarders, subsidizing imports of a variety of goods, including mobile phones, and has lost the most liberal members of his economic team.

Ethiopia: Remarkable Progress Over More Than a Decade
IMF Dec 4, 2018
Ethiopia has built on its strong track record of development over more than a decade. Growth slowed in 2017/18, but remained high while the current account deficit continued to narrow, the IMF says in its recent report on the economic health of Ethiopia. The sub-Saharan country is embarking on its next phase of economic and social development—supported by reforms and powered by the private sector.

The Uneven Path Ahead: The Effect of Brexit on Different Sectors in the UK Economy
Jiaqian Chen (IMF) Dec 4, 2018
The United Kingdom is set to leave the European Union in March 2019. Our research suggests that all likely Brexit outcomes will entail an economic cost for the UK, and these costs would be unevenly spread across different sectors and regions.

5 Steps for America to Retake Global Leadership
James G Stavridis (Bloomberg View) Dec 4, 2018
To overcome authoritarianism, the U.S. must harness the private sector and stay true to its values.

Qatar Leaving Is an Ominous Sign for OPEC
Liam Denning (Bloomberg View) Dec 4, 2018
It’s a relatively tiny oil-producer, but it exposes the organization’s growing weaknesses.

The U.S. Yield Curve Just Inverted. That’s Huge.
Brian Chappatta (Bloomberg View) Dec 4, 2018
The move ushers in fresh questions about the Fed and the economy.

Stocks Can Forget About a Big Leap From China Trade Deal
Stephen Gandel (Bloomberg View) Dec 4, 2018
Earnings growth and interest rates pose bigger challenges for companies and investors.

Trump and Xi Get an ‘A’ for Procrastination
Mark Gongloff (Bloomberg View) Dec 4, 2018
A trade-war truce is welcome, but doesn’t solve long-term problems.

Xi's Not for Turning? Don’t Be So Sure
Andrew Browne (Bloomberg View) Dec 4, 2018
Mounting economic and political pressures at home give China’s president an incentive to cede some ground in the trade war.

May’s Brexit Deal Is a Betrayal of Britain
Mervyn Allister King (Bloomberg View) Dec 4, 2018
If the U.K. parliament supports her plan, it will never be forgiven.

Hedge Funds Should Fear Market Whimpers, Not Bangs
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Dec 4, 2018
A slowing economy and heightened geopolitical concerns could conspire to becalm markets in 2019.

No Lawyer Can Solve This Brexit Political Problem
Therese Raphael (Bloomberg View) Dec 4, 2018
Don't expect the government's legal advice to provide any answers.

Go Beyond GDP, But Not Too Far Beyond
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Dec 4, 2018
Efforts to measure national well-being could widen the gap between elites and ordinary citizens.

How to Annoy Europe: Cancel Brexit
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Dec 4, 2018
The top EU court will likely allow a unilateral cancellation of Brexit – something EU leaders would find an inconvenience.

Maybe We Have the Economic-Growth Equation Backward
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Dec 4, 2018
The assumption that raising productivity is the key to higher GDP looks like it needs a rethink.

The U.S. Yield Curve Inversion Is a Happy Sign for Some
Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg View) Dec 4, 2018
If the Fed is persuaded to rein in the interest rate hikes, this could take the steam out of the dollar. Emerging markets would be pleased about that.

The Ghost of Brexit Past
Harold James (Project Syndicate) Dec 4, 2018
Now that British Prime Minister Theresa May has finalized an exit agreement with the European Union, a reversal of her country's withdrawal from the bloc has become highly improbable. Like all revolutions dating back at least to the Protestant Reformation, Brexit has now acquired its own momentum.

Going the extra mile: Distant lending and credit cycles
João Granja, Christian Leuz and Raghuram Rajan (VoxEU) Dec 4, 2018
Risk taking was pervasive during the Global Crisis even in the most unlikely areas, such as stretching to lend at a distance. Using US data, this column examines the degree to which competition amongst lenders interacts with the cyclicality in lending standards using a simple and policy-relevant measure, the average physical distance of borrowers from banks’ branches. It finds that distances widen considerably when credit conditions are lax and shorten considerably when credit conditions become tighter. A sharp departure from the trend in distance between banks and borrowers is indicative of increased risk taking.

The barriers to the euro’s global role are at home
FT View Dec 5, 2018
A reserve currency cannot be created though administrative fiat.

López Obrador and Mexico are at a crossroads
FT View Dec 5, 2018
The new president is torn between populist and pragmatic instincts.

Pendulum swings from central banks to politicians
Pascal Blanque (FT) Dec 5, 2018
To read the market now, look at value-chain disruption, regulation, tax and currencies.

Europe’s security community braced for Brexit wounds
Roula Khalaf (FT) Dec 5, 2018
The bloc’s hardline stance on the UK’s exit masks a sense of mourning over defence ties.

The stock market decline means... what?
Robert Samuelson (WP) Dec 5, 2018
After Tuesday’s dramatic sell-off, here are some key questions and tentative answers.

Cracks, confusion and the US-China trade war truce
Gordon Watts (AT) Dec 5, 2018
Optimism about a new round of talks has turned to pessimism amid mixed signals from Washington and Beijing

Abenomics Is Working, Don't Stop Now
Joseph E. Gagnon and Takeshi Tashiro (PIIE) Dec 5, 2018
Japan is on track for its longest postwar economic expansion, with female labor force participation and corporate profits at record highs and unemployment at a 25-year low. All this good news has caused many observers to question whether the goal of raising inflation to 2 percent is really necessary. Why not settle for trend inflation between 0 and 1 percent, where it is now? The answer is that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has no room to maneuver when the next downturn arrives, as it surely will someday. Unless Japan returns inflation sustainably to 2 percent or more in the next few years, it will have difficulty emerging from the next recession.

Emerging Markets: Vulnerable to External Factors?
Christopher T. Getter (PIMCO) Dec 5, 2018
Investors can find pockets of opportunity within emerging markets despite the uncertainties facing this set of countries.

Tariff Man’s Trade War Will Claim Innocent Victims
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Dec 5, 2018
Trump thinks China pays when he slaps penalties on imports. It’s actually American consumers who bear the burden.

Theresa May Is Workin’ With Ya on This Brexit Thing
Mark Gongloff (Bloomberg View) Dec 5, 2018
Her Brexit path looks increasingly embattled and disastrous.

Treasuries Are Still Insurance From a Stock Market Meltdown
Brian Chappatta (Bloomberg View) Dec 5, 2018
The bond-equity relationship reverts to form as bad news barrages traders.

Indonesia’s Debt Problem? There’s Not Enough of It
Andy Mukherjee (Bloomberg View) Dec 5, 2018
The government needs to suppress exchange rate volatility and develop a swaps market to give banks better access to overseas funding.

Emerging Markets Could Be a Haven From the U.S. Storm
Shuli Ren (Bloomberg View) Dec 5, 2018
The U.S. and Chinese presidents have very different takes on their weekend summit. It’s a similar story with equity investors.

The New Risks in Risk Regulation
Howard Davies (Project Syndicate) Dec 5, 2018
The received wisdom among financial regulators is that they are better off being able to say, “We told you so” if something goes wrong, and that there is little downside in occasionally issuing dark warnings. So should we be genuinely anxious about a spate of recent warnings from central banks and international financial institutions?

Are China’s Trade Practices Really Unfair?
Daniel Gros (Project Syndicate) Dec 5, 2018
Even if China’s non-tariff barriers remain high, they are lower than in the past. In fact, current complaints about unfair Chinese trade practices are actually complaints about the mismatch between the slow pace of economic opening and the very fast pace of modernization.

Brexit Is Falling Apart — Slowly
Owen Matthews (FP) Dec 5, 2018
Decisions in Europe and the U.K. make their separation less likely,

Theresa May has lost control of Brexit
Philip Stephens (FT) Dec 6, 2018
This is what happens when parliamentary democracies shuffle off responsibility.

Britain must accept real trade-offs for any kind of Brexit
Chris Giles (FT) Dec 6, 2018
Politicians have thus far shirked their responsibility to explain choices to the public.

Wild swings hinge on a different kind of leverage
Gillian Tett (FT) Dec 6, 2018
Modest developments these days are triggering extreme volatility.

China and the US: trade war or cold war?
Timothy Ash (FT) Dec 6, 2018
The conflict between Washington and Beijing goes far beyond trade.

Europe Floats a Finance Tax
WSJ Dec 6, 2018
How not to lure banks and business from the U.K. after Brexit.

Angola’s go-to app for delivering live goats to your door
Economist Dec 6, 2018
In Africa, the gig economy can benefit rich and poor alike.

A trade truce between America and China is over as soon as it began
Economist Dec 6, 2018
The arrest of Meng Wanzhou of Huawei looks like a resumption of hostilities.

Brexit: What Next?
Denis MacShane (Globalist) Dec 6, 2018
The message from the UK House of Commons is: No to Theresa May, but not yes to any alternative.

Africa Invents
Raluca Besliu (YaleGlobal) Dec 6, 2018
Young inventor, aspiring to solve every-day challenges, designs a water cycle to help children reach schools

Building Africa’s Scientific Talent
Daniel Mundeva (Project Syndicate) Dec 6, 2018
Ten years ago, a top South African physicist called on Africa’s educators to nurture scientific achievement by improving the capabilities of the continent’s youngest researchers. But despite significant improvements, much more work is needed to return Africa to the pinnacle of innovation that it once occupied.

A Reciprocal Solution to the US-China Trade Dispute
Shang-Jin Wei (Project Syndicate) Dec 6, 2018
The advanced economies are right that China needs to take steps to redress unfairness in its trade relations with other countries, not to mention its own economy. But if global trade is to be truly fair, the advanced economies – and, in particular, the US – also have to make some changes.

Are Putin and Mohammed bin Salman Getting Ready for Another High-Five?
Keith Johnson (FP) Dec 6, 2018
OPEC watchers could expect a repeat high-five between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Brexit’s twists and turns are baffling the markets
FT View Dec 7, 2018
Assumptions that no-deal exit risks have receded may be misguided.

Zimbabwe needs foreign help to shed pariah status
Gary Kleiman (FT) Dec 7, 2018
A joint foreign and domestic task force would help clear a path to financial stability.

Markets predictions: 2019 brings new level of uncertainty
Robin Wigglesworth (FT) Dec 7, 2018
Strategists give forecasts on what could happen to equities, gold and securitised products.

Buckle up for a bear market or final hurrah
Michael Mackenzie (FT) Dec 7, 2018
Shifts in bond yields are warning investors to be wary of late-cycle weakness.

Who can break the US–China trade impasse?
Yukon Huang (EAF) Dec 7, 2018
Mr Trump's tariffs don't target trade alone. He may be fixated on the United States' bilateral trade deficit with China, but the US business community gripes about China's 'unfair' foreign investment practices.

Seoul-Tokyo brawl could blow up into economic war
Todd Crowell and Andrew Salmon (AT) Dec 7, 2018
Japan reportedly eyeing retaliation if Korea seizes assets of companies linked to wartime forced labor.

A History of Venezuelan Inflation
José Niño (Mises Wire) Dec 7, 2018
There is no shortage of precedents for the approach to the escalating trade dispute taken by Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. But if the US economy shows signs of falling into recession, Trump will need to blame someone – and in this case, we can be relatively certain about who that will be.

Thomas Jefferson, the Original Debt Trap Diplomat
Scott Morris (CGD) Dec 7, 2018
CGD research has become Exhibit A virtually every time the charge of “debt trap diplomacy” has been leveled against China in the media this past year. Yet, our research shows that many of China’s borrowers are managing their debts just fine and seem unlikely to fall into any traps. For the smaller number of countries that are vulnerable to debt crises and are borrowing a lot from China, the debt trap label remains problematic, because we don’t necessarily have a smoking gun to point to in ascribing these motives to Chinese officials.

Under the Hood, the USMCA Is a Downgrade for North America
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Jeffrey J. Schott (PIIE) Dec 7, 2018
Since campaigning for the White House, President Trump has repeatedly called the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) the worst trade deal ever made. Trade negotiators have branded its intended replacement, the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), a “modernized” improvement. In fact, most of the upgrades draw heavily from the Trump-abandoned Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which he called a "potential disaster for our country."

What OPEC’s ‘Third Way’ Means for Investors
Greg E. Sharenow (PIMCO) Dec 7, 2018
The OPEC agreement seeks to limit the market imbalance and stem the recent price decline while not driving prices substantially higher.

The Leadership of Cities
Georgios Kaminis, Erias Lukwago and Marvin Rees (Project Syndicate) Dec 7, 2018
To meet the complex challenges of the twenty-first century, the strengths and expertise of every level of government must be leveraged. That is why cities have emerged as leaders in the effort to tackle issues like climate change and migration.

The case for a central fiscal capacity in EMU
Marco Buti and Nicolas Carnot (VoxEU) Dec 7, 2018
The debate continues over the needed ingredients for a stable Economic and Monetary Union. Some authors have argued that the completion of a financial union (banking union and capital markets union) together with sound national fiscal policies eliminate the need for common budgetary instruments. The authors of this column beg to disagree and re-state the case for a central fiscal capacity. In essence, whilst financial union and a euro area fiscal stabilisation are substitutes in normal times, they are complementary in bad times.

May’s deal avoids pitfalls of no deal and no Brexit
Rory Stewart (FT) Dec 8, 2018
Compromise is the most pragmatic and moderate response to a polarised nation.

The best way out of the Brexit mess
Economist Dec 8, 2018
Parliament cannot agree on what kind of Brexit the people want. Rather than guess, it should ask them.

Emmanuel Macron’s problems are more with presentation than policy
Economist Dec 8, 2018
But he can still save his presidency.

The Housing Boom Is Already Gigantic. How Long Can It Last?
Robert J. Shiller (NYT) Dec 8, 2018
The economist Robert Shiller says the rise in housing prices is the third biggest since 1913. The biggest boom ended disastrously in 2006.

The Phony US-China Truce
Barry Eichengreen (Project Syndicate) Dec 8, 2018
There is no shortage of precedents for the approach to the escalating trade dispute taken by Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. But if the US economy shows signs of falling into recession, Trump will need to blame someone – and in this case, we can be relatively certain about who that will be.

Markets, banks, and shadow banks
David Martinez-Miera and Rafael Repullo (VoxEU) Dec 8, 2018
The current financial system is characterised by the coexistence of direct market finance, regulated banks, and shadow banks. This column looks at what gives rise to each of these sources of finance as well as the effect of bank capital regulation on the financing that flows through them. High 'flat' (or risk-insensitive) capital requirements shift intermediate-risk entrepreneurs from regulated banks to shadow banks, while high risk-based requirements do the same for high-risk entrepreneurs, increasing the risk of the corresponding loans. This result highlights the need to take into account the existence of shadow banks when designing bank capital regulation.

Brexit, Brussels and Northern Ireland: careful what you wish for
Alex Barker (FT) Dec 9, 2018
Backstop plans could hand the EU extraordinary powers over the province.

Brexit trade uncertainty risks setting UK back 46 years
Seema Malhotra (FT) Dec 9, 2018
Theresa May is putting the British economy in peril.

The EU could, and should, help May’s deal pass
Wolfgang Münchau (FT) Dec 9, 2018
The backstop is awful and a purgatory in which the union does not want to end up.

No New Nafta Until Tariffs Have Been Lifted
David McIntosh (WSJ) Dec 9, 2018
Trump made a promise, and Congress should hold him accountable for it.

History Ended in 1945
James Dobbins (WSJ) Dec 9, 2018
Undoing the postwar order could produce global depressions and frequent wars.

How Should GCC Countries Diversify Their Economies And Promote Inclusive Growth?
IMF Dec 9, 2018
Recent volatility in oil prices underscore the need for the six countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)—Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates—to continue their reforms to diversify their economies and encourage strong, stable, and inclusive growth.

Leverage-induced fire sales and stock market crashes
Jiangze Bian, Zhiguo He, Kelly Shue and Hao Zhou (VoxEU) Dec 9, 2018
Excessive leverage and subsequent deleveraging-induced fire sales have been major contributors in past financial crises. This column explores the behaviour of two types of margin investors– brokerage-financed and shadow-financed – during a tumultuous period for the Chinese stock market. Results show that for accounts with exposure to fire sale risk, shadow-financed accounts account for a much higher proportion of the total stock market capitalisation than brokerage-financed accounts.

How conflict disrupts the economy
Francesco Amodio and Michele Di Maio (VoxEU) Dec 9, 2018
The economic impact of conflict can be catastrophic, but disentangling and identifying the different ways in which conflict affects the economy is challenging. Using data from the Occupied Palestinian Territory during the Second Intifada, this column examines the specific mechanisms through which economic losses materialise in a conflict zone with low-intensity violence. The findings highlight the close interaction between security and trade issues, calling for an integrated policy approach acting on both fronts.

The Road to a Bad Brexit
WSJ Dec 10, 2018
The politicians failed to seize the opportunity the voters offered.

The Debt Threat to the Economy
Phil Gramm and Michael Solon (WSJ) Dec 10, 2018
As rates rise, paying back government borrowing will consume the credit needed to sustain growth.

EU Proposals to Resolve the WTO Appellate Body Crisis Represent Partial Progres
Tetyana Payosova, Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Jeffrey J. Schott (PIIE) Dec 10, 2018
The World Trade Organization (WTO) is in crisis but the G-20 leaders don’t seem to notice.

Does China Force Foreign Firms to Surrender Their Sensitive Technology?
Nicholas R. Lardy (PIIE) Dec 10, 2018
A major source of friction in the economic negotiations between the United States and China is the accusation by the US government that US firms that want to do business in China are forced into joint venture arrangements in which they must surrender access to their advanced technology.

Europe Struggles as the ECB Pretends to Know What It's Doing
Carmen Elena Dorobat (Mises Wire) Dec 10, 2018
The ECB is treating Europe's ailing economy with the same poison that made it ill in the first place.

Bond Bulls Cheer Return of China’s Deflation Bugbear
Shuli Ren (Bloomberg View) Dec 10, 2018
Softening U.S. yields and falling factory prices have turned the $2 trillion market for government securities into a haven.

Betting on Dystopia
Kenneth Rogoff (Project Syndicate) Dec 10, 2018
The right way to think about cryptocurrency coins is as lottery tickets that pay off in a dystopian future where they are used in rogue and failed states, or perhaps in countries where citizens have already lost all semblance of privacy. That means that cryptocurrencies are not entirely worthless.

The rise of intangible income: A global value chain perspective
Wen Chen, Bart Los and Marcel Timmer (VoxEU) Dec 10, 2018
Intangibles are on the rise, yet their measurement is elusive. This column argues that a global value chain perspective on factor incomes provides new insights. It documents a rapid increase in the share of ‘factorless’ income in global value chains in the 2000s and argues that this period should be seen as an exceptional period in the global economy during which multinational firms benefitted from reduced labour costs through offshoring, while capitalising on firm-specific intangibles at little marginal cost.

Labour market flexibility during financial crises
Luc Laeven, Peter McAdam and Alexander Popov (VoxEU) Dec 10, 2018
There are good arguments both in favour and against the idea that more labour market flexibility will deliver benefits to an economy during a downturn. This column presents novel evidence on this question, using data from Spain during the 2008–09 credit crunch. The results show that credit-constrained firms grow faster if they are subject to less strict firing and hiring restrictions, as long as they are technologically able to substitute labour for capital. The findings provide an argument in favour of more flexible labour laws.

No Brexit, No Exit From Brexit, and Nobody’s in Charge
Glen O’Hara (FP) Dec 10, 2018
The United Kingdom is in a mess of its own creation, and there’s no way out.

The Brexit That Nobody Wants
Sam Knight (New Yorker) Dec 10, 2018
Theresa May’s deal is ungainly. There’s something for everyone to dislike.

New Delhi must affirm central bank’s autonomy
FT View Dec 11, 2018
The governor’s resignation puts the onus on Narendra Modi’s government.

RBI resignation reveals pressure on central bankers
Jitesh Gadhia (FT) Dec 11, 2018
Former governor Urjit Patel is not the only policymaker in the political doghouse.

Investors can ease friction caused by deglobalisation
John Plender (FT) Dec 11, 2018
Markets act as mechanisms to help allay tension between countries and central banks.

E.U. Hoped to Put Its House in Order This Year. Not Even Close.
Steven Erlanger (NYT) Dec 11, 2018
Britain, France and Germany are all facing political change or upheaval. For the European Union, the question is who will guide the bloc into an uncertain future.

Trump Defends the International Order
Kiron Skinner (WSJ) Dec 11, 2018
His administration is reasserting the nation-state’s role in a free and open multilateral system.

Xi walks a trade war tightrope
Sebastien Falletti (AT) Dec 11, 2018
Vocal pro-market voices are challenging Xi’s strategy as the Chinese Communist Party celebrates 40th anniversary of the opening up of the country

Trump Can Push Congress on NAFTA, but Congress Can Push Back
Gary Clyde Hufbauer (PIIE) Dec 11, 2018
Shortly after joining with the leaders of Mexico and Canada in Buenos Aires to sign a new trade accord to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), President Trump declared that he would also “formally” terminate NAFTA itself. Trump said he would act “shortly,” though as of this writing, he has not done so. But his vow signaled that he plans to play hardball in winning approval of the new trade agreement, known as the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA for short, in Congress, by presenting lawmakers with what he thinks will be no viable alternative.

Is Latin America Prepared for an Aging Population?
Lorenzo Figliuoli, Valentina Flamini, Frederic Lambert, and RosalindMowatt (IMF) Dec 11, 2018
Latin America, while still comparatively young, is aging fast. Our research finds that population aging is challenging the fiscal sustainability of public pension and health care systems in the region. Policymakers will need to ensure adequate benefits for the rising share of older people—notably their social acceptability—by supporting formal employment and gradually reforming pension and healthcare systems.

Central banks should be unpopular
Brian Caplen (Banker) Dec 11, 2018
Or to be more accurate they should be unpopular for the right reasons, writes Brian Caplen, as a decade of easy money has undermined their credibility.

May Should Admit That Brexit Has Failed
Bloomberg View Dec 11, 2018
Persisting with this hopeless endeavor is irresponsible.

An Alarming Challenge to the RBI
Bloomberg View Dec 11, 2018
In India, as elsewhere, central-bank independence serves everybody’s interests.

Markets’ Manic Monday Leaves a Lot to Be Desired
John Authers (Bloomberg View) Dec 11, 2018
It’s hard to get excited by a big rebound when bank stocks don’t participate.

As the Data Change, So Should the Fed
Karl W Smith (Bloomberg View) Dec 11, 2018
A consistent monetary policy is one that adjusts to economic and financial conditions.

Yep, Bitcoin Was a Bubble. And It Popped.
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Dec 11, 2018
Millennials, like generations before them, just got a painful lesson about speculation.

India’s Central Bank Woes Won’t End With New Leader
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg View) Dec 11, 2018
This established democracy is lagging behind when it comes to monetary independence.

China’s Boldest Experiment
Dani Rodrik (Project Syndicate) Dec 11, 2018
The conventional wisdom among social scientists is that the demands of advanced economies and growing middle classes can be met only through greater political freedoms and competition. By doubling down on authoritarian single-party rule, China is now testing that proposition.

The Political Roots of Falling Wage Growth
Jayati Ghosh (Project Syndicate) Dec 11, 2018
New findings from the International Labor Organization show that workers across many advanced and emerging economies continued to miss out on the gains from growth in 2017. Rather than trotting out the usual suspects – trade and technology – it is time for policymakers to place the blame where it belongs.

The micro impact of macroprudential policies
Meghana Ayyagari, Thorsten Beck and Maria Soledad Martinez Peria (VoxEU) Dec 11, 2018
Macroprudential tools have been implemented widely following the Global Crisis. Using data from 900,000 firms in 49 countries, this column finds that such policies are associated with lower credit growth during the period 2003-2011. The effects are especially significant for micro, small and medium-sized enterprises and young firms that are more financially constrained and bank dependent. The results imply a trade-off between financial stability and inclusion.

US and China: From Co-Evolution to Decoupling
Vincent Ni (YaleGlobal) Dec 11, 2018
As China's economy steadily grows, its relationship with the United States has transformed from cooperation to decoupling.

Will Europe's Slowdown Restrain the ECB?
Abigail Kinnaman and Erik Nelson (WF) Dec 11, 2018
After a standout performance in 2017, economic growth across the Eurozone has decelerated through 2018. In this report, we assess the recent economic slowdown and its effects on monetary policy and GDP growth prospects in the year ahead.

EM investing: not all about the Fed
Brett Diment (FT) Dec 12, 2018
Geopolitics has come back into play and requires different skills from investors.

Index fund managers are too big for comfort
John Gapper (FT) Dec 12, 2018
Investors such as BlackRock cannot keep quiet and hope that no one will notice them.

Huawei offers clues to the US-China trade war psyche
Jamil Anderlini (FT) Dec 12, 2018
Technology transfer is behind the tensions but history is not on Washington’s side.

Renminbi will not be able to escape a Chinese slowdown
George Magnus (FT) Dec 12, 2018
Currency will be under pressure no matter how the US-China trade battle unfolds.

Tariff Man
NYT Dec 12, 2018
For President Trump, the focus on tariffs has been decades in the making, transforming him from a businessman into ...

When will we stop ignoring that 21 trillion-pound gorilla sitting in plain sight?
John R. Kasich (WP) Dec 12, 2018
Conservatives talk a big game about our deficits and national debt, but ignore our fiscal mess when in power.

In Lebanon, faith in national currency is slipping
Nasser Elamine (AT) Dec 12, 2018
A longstanding peg to the US dollar is increasingly a liability, rather than a guarantee of stability, for a Middle Eastern nation with enormous debt.

Italy: A Brewing Storm Within the EU
Claudio Grass (Mises Daily) Dec 12, 2018
The political and economic powder keg that is Italy is a greater threat to the EU than Brexit ever was.

Huawei Case Will Split Nations Between U.S. and China
Mohamed Aly El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Dec 12, 2018
It’s going to get harder to be friends with both global economic giants.

China’s Auto Tariff Reversal Looks Like a Lemon
Anjani Trivedi (Bloomberg View) Dec 12, 2018
Peek under the hood, and a proposal to eliminate retaliatory tariffs doesn’t offer all that much.

Modi’s Losses and RBI Chief Raise Risk of Populist Excess
Andy Mukherjee (Bloomberg View) Dec 12, 2018
The Reserve Bank of India looks set to add a slug of liquor to the punch bowl ahead of elections next year.

The EU Is Playing Trump Just Like It Played the Brexiters
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Dec 12, 2018
U.S. officials shouldn’t underestimate Europe’s skill at the waiting game.

Emmanuel Macron’s Euro Zone Dream Died This Week
Ferdinando Giugliano (Bloomberg View) Dec 12, 2018
The president wanted to bring the euro zone closer together, but his response to the gilets jaunes has killed that dream. Berlin is far from blameless.

Markets Conclude the U.S. Is Riskier Than China
Matthew A Winkler (Bloomberg View) Dec 12, 2018
Now the Treasury has to pay a premium over Chinese bonds to attract investors. They see four major red flags in U.S. debt.

Why Congress Can’t Cave In to Trump on Nafta
Ramesh Ponnuru (Bloomberg View) Dec 12, 2018
Legislators need to stand up to the president, even if his substitute trade deal is not a lot different from the original.

The Revolution Europe Needs
Guy Verhofstadt (Project Syndicate) Dec 12, 2018
The "Yellow Vest" protests in France over the past month have been compared to the historic revolt of May 1968, when students and workers almost brought the French economy to a halt in the name of political and cultural reform. But unlike its precursor, today's uprising is not so much an exercise in democracy as an attack against it.

Who’s Afraid of China’s Influence?
Minxin Pei (Project Syndicate) Dec 12, 2018
What is most notable about China’s efforts to spread its influence abroad is not their success, but the ease with which they are exposed. Portraying these efforts as a genuine threat to the world's democracies not only betrays the West’s insecurity, but also gives China more credit than it deserves.

News does explain yield curve changes
Refet Gurkaynak, Burcin Kisacikoglu and Jonathan Wright (VoxEU) Dec 12, 2018
News affects the yield curve, but OLS regressions based on observed news have been able to explain only 40% of the movement, at best. This column proposes a method for estimating unobserved news as well. The results suggest that news explains more or less all of the yield curve changes in event windows, and that more should be done to understand the economics behind this relationship.

ECB makes a return to normality — for now
FT View Dec 13, 2018
The central bank should be ready to use quantitative easing again.

Japan’s new year faces a painful reckoning for markets
Leo Lewis (FT) Dec 13, 2018
Two big new listings on indices will bring a reminder of the role passive money now plays.

Emerging market currencies defy the doom mongers
Steve Johnson (FT) Dec 13, 2018
EM FX shows long-term returns — as theory suggests — despite plunging indices.

The nightmare of no-deal Brexit must be prevented
Martin Wolf (FT) Dec 13, 2018
Fanatics seek to impose a highly disruptive experiment on their fellow citizens.

Bear markets and corrections: some lessons from history
Simon Edelsten (FT) Dec 13, 2018
The flattening US yield curve has sent terror through the investment world.

Three Choices on Brexit, None Good
NYT Dec 13, 2018
Pity poor Theresa May and her faltering plan for Britain to exit the European Union. Whatever it is, her critics are against it.

Countering Russia and China in Africa
WSJ Dec 13, 2018
The U.S. has a new focus, but it can’t neglect the terror front.

Will China Cheat American Investors?
Jesse M. Fried and Matthew Schoenfeld (WSJ) Dec 13, 2018
Beijing wants to bring home its big tech firms. U.S. shareholders may face undervalued buyouts.

Rethinking global poverty reduction in 2019
Homi Kharas, Kristofer Hamel and Martin Hofer (Brookings) Dec 13, 2018
2018 could be a landmark moment in understanding global poverty dynamics. In June, we reported the start of a new poverty narrative, one that brought the plight of Africa squarely into focus. In September, we also discussed an unprecedented tipping point in global wealth prospects: More than half the world is now middle class or richer, fueled by a rising Asian middle class. As Steven Pinker and others observed, the rise of the global middle class—and the implications on policies, industry, and political economy—might have been one of the most important “ignored” stories of 2018.

Forecast errors and monetary policy normalisation in the euro area
Zsolt Darvas (Bruegel) Dec 13, 2018
What did we learn from the recent monetary policy normalisation experiences of Sweden, the United States and the United Kingdom? Zsolt Darvas consider the lessons and analyse the European Central Bank’s forecasting track record and possible factors that might explain the forecast errors.

A Climate-Friendly Financial System
Ma Jun and Caio Koch-Weser (Project Syndicate) Dec 13, 2018
There is no doubt that avoiding the worst effects of climate change will require action on an unprecedented scale – starting immediately. That action must include governments worldwide doing what it takes to ensure that both public and private financial flows support the climate agenda.

Europe in Disarray
Richard N. Haass (Project Syndicate) Dec 13, 2018
In what by historical standards constitutes an instant, the future of democracy, prosperity, and peace in Europe has become uncertain. And with the US under President Donald Trump treating its allies like enemies, the continent must confront the growing threats it faces largely on its own.

Trump’s Anti-Service Economy
Anne O. Krueger (Project Syndicate) Dec 13, 2018
Just as manufacturing companies comprised the most rapidly growing industries in an earlier era, services companies do today. But US President Donald Trump, with his fixation on old manufacturing industries, seems unable to grasp that.

Trump’s Economic War of Choice
Jim O'Neill (Project Syndicate) Dec 13, 2018
It is only natural for a dominant power that finds itself in second place to experience self-doubt or a loss of confidence. But as China's nominal GDP surpasses that of the US, Americans will just have to get over it, as the rest of the world did when America became the single largest economy.

The Referendum Risk
Ngaire Woods (Project Syndicate) Dec 13, 2018
The United Kingdom could be headed toward another "people's vote" on its withdrawal from the European Union. The UK reached this point as a result of one of the most serious risks, evident since the original Brexit vote in 2016, that referenda entail – namely, that they enable politicians to evade responsibility for consequential decisions.

Dangerous Alliances on Migration
Lena Riemer (YaleGlobal) Dec 13, 2018
Cooperation between the EU and third parties on migration control contributes to human rights violations.

Why ‘no deal’ would not be disastrous
Merryn Somerset Webb (FT) Dec 14, 2018
Investing in UK equities is one of the least crowded trades in the marketplace.

Why the fate of European stocks lies with China
Michael Mackenzie (FT) Dec 14, 2018
Fiscal rules and still-loose monetary policy mean the region has to look elsewhere.

Wall Street’s leveraged buyout profits are on thin ice
Eric Platt (FT) Dec 14, 2018
Stress points being felt in financial markets today could intensify as fees evaporate.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative puts Paris climate commitments at risk
Mattia Romani (FT) Dec 14, 2018
Chinese overseas investment has focused disproportionately on fossil fuels.

May must call the Brexit hardliners’ bluff
Camilla Cavendish (FT) Dec 14, 2018
The PM should put country first and challenge Labour to back a second referendum.

US development agency should take a lead in Africa
Aubrey Hruby (FT) Dec 14, 2018
Finance corporation has the chance to help launch a new cadre of middle-market PE funds.

Will the Sino-US trade war spread?
Simon Evenett and Johannes Fritz (FT) Dec 14, 2018
Fears of Chinese exports being diverted to third countries so far unrealised.

How America Broke OPEC
WSJ Dec 14, 2018
Lessons from the U.S. rise to be the world’s largest oil producer.

It’s not a trade war with China. It’s a tech war.
Michael Morell and David Kris (WP) Dec 14, 2018
The United States and China are fighting for an edge on the technology.

The history of price bubbles shows how low Bitcoin could go
Lee Smales (AT) Dec 14, 2018
Bitcoin brings no actual income, has limited scarcity and few use it as currency. So does it have any real intrinsic value, beyond speculation?

Longer-Term Risks Complicate ECB's Policy Path: Beware the Pillars of Hercules
Andrew Bosomworth (PIMCO) Dec 14, 2018
Will the ECB have sufficient firepower – and support from the population – to spur the economy when the next recession arrives?

How a second referendum could be the best way to overcome Brexit impasse
Maria Demertzis and Nicola Viegi (Bruegel) Dec 14, 2018
A new vote based on the revocation (or not) of Article 50 would give the UK government a clear signal to proceed in one direction or another, and thus trim down the number of options being touted – most of which are unworkable as things stand.

Five Actions to Strengthen the Euro Area Banking Union
IMF Dec 14, 2018
Dealing with problem banks in a prompt, efficient, and even-handed manner is essential for the European banking union. Much progress has been made, but more needs to be done to strengthen both institutions and practices. We outline the recommendations in this area proposed as part of the IMF’s recent assessment of the euro area financial sector.

The Biggest Club You’ve Probably Never Heard Of
Scott Morris (CGD) Dec 14, 2018
SDGs. Billions to trillions. South-South development cooperation. Development finance. If these terms resonate with you (positively or negatively), and you’ve never heard of the International Development Finance Club (IDFC), you should rectify that. At least, that’s the conclusion we’ve drawn after a year-long study of the IDFC and its member institutions.

It’s a Cop-Out to Just Cry ‘Recession!’ Who’s Going to Do Something?
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg View) Dec 14, 2018
Interest rates can’t go much lower, but is stimulus exhausted? Some think a coordinated approach will be key.

Trouble in Housing? It’s More 1994 Than 2007
Conor Sen (Bloomberg View) Dec 14, 2018
The U.S. can’t reprise the last downturn: This time there are strict lending standards and tight housing stock.

Stocks Are Sounding the Alarm on Earnings
Nir Kaissar (Bloomberg View) Dec 14, 2018
Equity prices have rarely been as vulnerable to a downturn in profits as they are now.

As the Climate Changes, Avoid Green Energy Bets
Gary Shilling (Bloomberg View) Dec 14, 2018
As with investing, even the best of computer models reflect human biases.

Here's Housing's Real Threat to the Economy
Mark Gongloff (Bloomberg View) Dec 14, 2018
Tight urban supply is a bigger long-term problem than slow sales.

Unlocking Public Wealth
Dag Detter (Project Syndicate) Dec 14, 2018
According to the International Monetary Fund, the world’s public assets are worth at least twice global GDP. Instead of neglecting those assets, as most governments do today, countries should be using them to generate value.

The threats to Chinese and US commercial interests aren’t that different
Simon Evenett and Johannes Fritz (VoxEU) Dec 14, 2018
Presidents Trump and Xi effectively declared a truce in their trade war at the recent G20 Summit in Buenos Aires, giving their trade negotiators three months to settle their differences. This column argues that focusing on the bilateral trade war overlooks similarities in the trade distortions facing Chinese and American exporters worldwide in the form of export incentives, subsidies to domestic firms, and import tariff increases. It concludes that these two trading giants have more in common than they may realise.

How the 0.001% invest
Economist Dec 15, 2018
The family offices through which the world’s wealthiest 0.001% invest are a new force in global finance that few have heard of.

Are You Ready for the Financial Crisis of 2019?
Alex Williams (NYT) Dec 15, 2018
Here are five ways things could get bad for everyone.

Can virtual currencies challenge the dominant position of sovereign currencies?
Marek Dabrowski and Lukasz Janikowski (Bruegel) Dec 15, 2018
Why private money has historically failed in competition against sovereign currencies and what it means for modern virtual currencies, such as Bitcoin.

The Bubble’s Losing Air. Get Ready for a Crisis
Satyajit Das (Bloomberg View) Dec 15, 2018
Investors need to focus on their response to financial stresses in an era in which policymakers will be constrained.

Credit booms and information depletion
Vladimir Asriyan, Luc Laeven and Alberto Martin (VoxEU) Dec 15, 2018
Credit booms are perceived to fuel resource allocation and often end in crises that are followed by protracted periods of low growth. This column investigates the macroeconomic effects of credit booms using a new theory of information production. The theory predicts that when the economy enters a collateral boom, the price of collateral rises and lenders rely more on collateralisation and less on information-producing screening of entrepreneurs. Empirical evidence based on US data confirms the model’s predictions.

Value chain activity in the age of changing trade alliances
Mauro Boffa, Marion Jansen and Olga Solleder (VoxEU) Dec 15, 2018
In a world where trade policies and trade alliances are changing, global value chains are likely to be affected, with implications for policymakers seeking economic development through value chain integration.This column combines information on the value-added decomposition of gross exports with information from the World Bank’s Content of Preferential Trade Agreements Database to examine which policy mixes are more conducive for value chain activity. Value-chain players are found to prefer more integrated regions.

The eurozone risks sleepwalking into a downturn
Wolfgang Münchau (FT) Dec 16, 2018
The ECB has a record of optimistic forecasts but the economy could tank.

Britain’s outsourcing crisis shows markets are working
Jonathan Ford (FT) Dec 16, 2018
Companies will be forced to innovate or shrink and what emerges should be stronger.

Japan’s inflation target is still remarkably elusive
FT View Dec 16, 2018
Growth in prices is stubbornly low, but the real economy is healthy.

Markets fear faster UK inflation as Brexit looms
Gavyn Davies (FT) Dec 16, 2018
Rise in inflation swaps has occurred at a time when those in other major economies have fallen markedly.

Fed Tightening? Not Now
Stanley F. Druckenmiller and Kevin Warsh (WSJ) Dec 16, 2018
The central bank should pause its double-barreled blitz of higher interest rates and tighter liquidity.

Australia’s diplomatic course between China and the United States
James Curran (EAF) Dec 16, 2018
For all the legitimate concerns about increasingly aggressive Chinese economic and strategic statecraft, it seems no US allies want to be shoehorned into a new Cold War.

Under New Management — Russia Now Runs OPEC
Julian Lee (Bloomberg View) Dec 16, 2018
The oil producer’s group has been seriously weakened by its need to bring an outsider into its heart to broker a deal on output.

China Confronts Its Eternal Dilemma
Christopher Balding (Bloomberg View) Dec 16, 2018
With pressure building for major stimulus, leaders must decide whether boosting growth or controlling debt is more important.

China’s Made in 2025 Plan Is a Paper Tiger
Anjani Trivedi (Bloomberg View) Dec 16, 2018
The country’s a long way from achieving its targets; staying open to foreign competition is a better way to climb the technology ladder.

The evolving scope and content of central bank speeches
Pierre Siklos, Samantha St. Amand and Joanna Wajda (VoxEU) Dec 16, 2018
There is an ongoing debate regarding how far central bankers, as unelected technocrats, should go outside of their remit when communicating in public fora. This column uses a machine-learning algorithm to assess the topics of speeches by officials at the US Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada over the last two decades. It concludes that the topics of central bankers’ speeches have not significantly widened in scope relative to their mandate documents.

Venezuela is the forgotten loser of 2018
Nick Butler (FT) Dec 17, 2018
Given its resources, the country should be one of the richest in Latin America.

Share prices can rise even after yield curve inversion
Christoph V Schon (FT) Dec 17, 2018
Central banks’ rate policies provide valuable clues for the outlook of assets.

No-deal dreamers could force a Brexit rethink
Robert Shrimsley (FT) Dec 17, 2018
Stories of immediate chaos distract attention from the long-term economic damage.

Dovish hike by Fed will struggle to calm investors
Mohamed El-Erian (FT) Dec 17, 2018
The tone that the Fed strikes on the US economic outlook will be closely watched.

Time for a Fed Pause
WSJ Dec 17, 2018
Inflation and other economic signals justify interest-rate caution.

Don’t blame Puerto Rico’s poor economy on hurricanes
José B. Carrión and Andrew G. Biggs (WP) Dec 17, 2018
The root of the problem is bad economic management.

Regime crises spread like winter flu
David P. Goldman (AT) Dec 17, 2018
World equity prices are being buffeted by new trade war threats, Britain's Brexit and French President Macron's decision to backtrack on reforms.

How to avoid the middle-income trap: Lessons from Poland, a European Tiger
Enrique Aldaz-Carroll, Rogier van den Brink and Emilia Skrok (Brookings) Dec 17, 2018
World Bank staff spend their careers traveling from country to country. Most of these countries struggle to implement good policies and only a few succeed in reaching high-income status and sustaining growth. Take Turkey, which was growing towards high-income status but then experienced a slowdown; or Argentina, which reached high-income status but fell again to middle-income status riddled with policy uncertainty; or Romania, which has been unable to make the most of its EU membership and is suffering from governance issues. So when we came across Poland, which moved from middle to high income in less than 15 years, we wanted to take a closer look.

Venezuela's Crisis: What's Oil Got to Do with It?
Carmen Elena Dorobat (Mises Wire) Dec 17, 2018
Oil prices did not cause the Venezuelan crisis. Nor can oil now be its cure

Brexit: In All the Noise, Has That Much Changed?
Mike Amey (PIMCO) Dec 17, 2018
We believe markets are now broadly priced for an extended period of the status quo – where the current impasse remains, but the UK remains in the EU.

The Fed Can Pause and Still Resist Trump
Karl W Smith (Bloomberg View) Dec 17, 2018
By delaying this week’s interest rate increase, the Fed can both reassure the public and stand up to the president.

China Should Remember Its Friends
Mihir Sharma (Bloomberg View) Dec 17, 2018
By taking all the credit for the country’s stunning economic rise, the Communist Party is threatening its continued prosperity.

The Continuing Agony of Brexit
Robert Skidelsky (Project Syndicate) Dec 17, 2018
Those who are calling for a second referendum on the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the European Union overlook an inconvenient truth: Leavers detest the EU more intensely than Remainers love it. So we must hope that Prime Minister Theresa May gets her amicable divorce when Parliament finally votes on it in January.

Harnessing the Digital Revolution for Sustainable Development
Maria Ramos and Achim Steiner (Project Syndicate) Dec 17, 2018
The digitalization of finance is essential to improving lives in the Global South and achieving eight of the 17 UN Sustainable Development Goals. But to capitalize on fintech's potential, lenders and investors need a coordinated strategy; a new United Nations task force could provide one.

A Reprieve for Global Governance
Ana Palacio (Project Syndicate) Dec 17, 2018
As the deal struck at COP24 in Katowice shows, world leaders can address myriad shared challenges when they embrace compromise and cooperation. But they will also require something more: new ideas about how global governance should be organized.

The Eurozone’s Solidarity Fallacy
Jürgen Stark (Project Syndicate) Dec 17, 2018
In the name of "solidarity," eurozone reformers have continued to introduce new instruments for sharing risk across member states in the event of another crisis. But what the monetary union needs is not joint liability – and the unacceptable degree of moral hazard that would come with it – but rather risk reduction.

The impact of corporate taxes on firm innovation
Jing Cai, Yuyu Chen and Xuan Wang (VoxEU) Dec 17, 2018
R&D tax breaks are often offered to businesses to encourage innovation. This column uses evidence from a tax reform in China to study the relationship between tax enforcement and firm innovation. Lower taxes improve both the quantity and quality of firm innovation, and have a bigger impact on those firms that are either financially constrained or those that engage more in tax evasion.

New evidence on the potentially harmful effects of state breakup
Marvin Suesse (VoxEU) Dec 17, 2018
While much has been written on why states disintegrate, we know little about the consequences of state breakup. Using data from the breakup of the Soviet Union, this column studies the short-run economic costs of its collapse. It demonstrates how political disintegration can lead to the dissolution of trade links, and to a correspondingly large fall in output. In the Soviet case, this mechanism helps to explain the disappointing performance of its successor states in the 1990s. The uncertainty surrounding secessions is an important driver of the fall in present output.

Pay to Stay?
Maya Averbuch and Sarah Kinosian (FP) Dec 17, 2018
In the past two years, the U.S. has provided about $1.3 billion in aid to Central America—but experts say the money has not made enough of a difference to outweigh the incentives to leave.

Banks should recognise the risks of climate change
FT View Dec 18, 2018
BoE governor Mark Carney is right to suggest adding global warming to stress tests.

The US must stop threatening the EU over tariffs
Bernd Lange (FT) Dec 18, 2018
The bloc should not hold trade talks until US disregard for our values changes.

US shale juggernaut will stomp on Opec’s oil plans
David Sheppard (FT) Dec 18, 2018
Next year does not look like a time to be betting on the price getting much stronger.

US’s new Africa policy is a boost to infrastructure
Jim O’Brien (FT) Dec 18, 2018
Linking economic and security interests to investment will make more funds available.

‘Under-owned’ EMs begin to tempt investors once more
Katie Martin (FT) Dec 18, 2018
The sector is demonstrating greater resilience and pressure has been localised.

Brexit turns predicting the pound into a nightmare
Eva Szalay (FT) Dec 18, 2018
Uncertainty over the UK’s departure from the EU means a single forecast is impossible.

India to overtake UK in IMF global economic rankings
Delphine Strauss (FT) Dec 18, 2018
Britain poised to drop to seventh in list of world’s largest economies.

India’s central bank boss must resist calls to soften rules
Simon Mundy (FT) Dec 18, 2018
Many in Mumbai’s financial sector were unhappy with the former governor’s approach.

The Trump Tax Cuts Boosted Growth and Jobs, but at What Cost?
Jason Furman (WSJ) Dec 18, 2018
The deficit has ballooned, and most of the benefits went to corporate profits rather than employees.

Stock Markets Are Wild, but Bond Markets Can Be Dangerous
Matt Phillips and Peter Eavis (NYT) Dec 18, 2018
The sell-off in stocks isn’t the only ominous economic sign emanating from financial markets. The bond markets, much more closely linked to the actual economy, are also flashing a warning.

China scrambles to sustain its trade truce with America
Economist Dec 18, 2018
By cutting tariffs and downplaying industrial policy, China tries to win over Donald Trump.

China is about to stress test the world
William Pesek (AT) Dec 18, 2018
Beijing is already in damage-control mode, rolling out tax cuts, new business loans and infrastructure projects to keep growth from plunging below 6%.

Sweatshops Today, Decent Work Tomorrow
Nikhil Sridhar (Mises Wire) Dec 18, 2018
The ticket to the UN’s ideal of decent work is not regulation and legislation, but economic.

Brexit: Britain Entering a State of Emergency
Rupert Strachwitz (Globalist) Dec 18, 2018
It seems less likely by the day that Britain can solve its Brexit problem in an orderly parliamentary process. The question is whether there are other options.

France's Deficit Tests the Flexibility of the EU's Fiscal Rules
Jérémie Cohen-Setton and Álvaro Leandro (PIIE) Dec 18, 2018
For nearly 10 years, up until last June, France had been in violation of the European Union’s rule, established by the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) in 1998, that deficits must not exceed 3 percent of GDP. Under the threat of sanctions, France followed the recommendations to reduce its deficit below the limit. Now President Emmanuel Macron’s announcement of fiscal measures to placate the “yellow vest” (gilets jaunes) movement will bring the French deficit back above the limit. In theory, this could land France back in an Excessive Debt Procedure (EDP)—the corrective arm of the SGP, a process requiring the government to submit a plan to correct its deficit—which is also being threatened against the new populist government in Italy.

Investors Are Fearful of Risk in African Infrastructure. They Shouldn’t Be.
Aymeric Saha and Max Messervy (Brink) Dec 18, 2018
Those who have already invested in Africa's infrastructure are generally positive about their experiences and the outlook for future involvement in the region. So why is there an overblown perception of risk when it comes to investing on the continent? Learn more »

The euro as an international currency
Konstantinos Efstathiou and Francesco Papadia (Bruegel) Dec 18, 2018
Is a more important international role for the euro worth pursuing? What measures would achieve this result, if it is worth pursuing?

Why are Poles unimpressed with Poland’s economic achievements?
Enrique Aldaz-Carroll, Rogier van den Brink and Emilia Skrok (Brookings) Dec 18, 2018
Over two decades, Poland experienced the most stable high growth in the EU with an average rate of 3.7 percent a year, earning it the nickname of the European Tiger. This achievement was even more remarkable because it was inclusive: jobs and wages increased, inequality across income groups and regions remained low, and poverty declined.

China Needs a New Commitment to Economic Reform
Bloomberg View Dec 18, 2018
Boldness served China well 40 years ago — a lesson policy makers would be wise to remember this week.

China’s Gates Are Open Again
Andrew Polk (Bloomberg View) Dec 18, 2018
Eager for foreign investment, Chinese leaders are personally committing to increased market access in a way they haven’t in years.

Stock Market Votes With Its Feet
John Authers (Bloomberg View) Dec 18, 2018
The sell-off demonstrates rapidly shifting opinions and priorities.

Why Treasuries Can’t Be a Weapon in the Trade War
Andy Mukherjee (Bloomberg View) Dec 18, 2018
There’s been a lot of fuss about China selling U.S. debt. But those fretting about higher yields should focus instead on the Fed’s pace of rate hikes into 2019.

Get Used to It America: We’re No Longer No. 1
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Dec 18, 2018
China probably has become the world’s biggest economy and will reap the benefits that once flowed to the U.S.

Sugar Industry Is Exhibit A of Tariff Favoritism
Stephen Mihm (Bloomberg View) Dec 18, 2018
Thanks, taxpayers: The farm bill shows how protections for big business become permanent.

Why the Fed Should Try to ‘Feel the Market’
Karl W Smith (Bloomberg View) Dec 18, 2018
The Fed’s own analysis shows that measuring market sentiment is helpful in predicting a recession.

India’s Shadow-Bank Risks Put China in the Shade
Andy Mukherjee (Bloomberg View) Dec 18, 2018
The government can’t afford to see the industry stumble, because formal lenders are capital-constrained and might not be able to pick up the slack.

Overestimating the EU Economy
Mohamed A. El-Erian (Project Syndicate) Dec 18, 2018
If the EU were a soccer team, it would not lose games for lack of a game plan or due to inadequate capacity. The problem is that the team as a whole is not playing cohesively, and all of the top players are struggling individually, owing to messy problems at home.

Migration: A Case for Stay and Build
Chandran Nair (YaleGlobal) Dec 18, 2018
To address migration’s root causes, nations could end wars and offer aid to help people at home.

Leveraged Loans: A Deathknell for the U.S. Economy?
Jay H. Bryson (WF) Dec 18, 2018
The leveraged loan market, where the bank debt of non-investment grade companies is traded, has experienced rapid growth over the past few years. But weakness in the market in recent weeks may bring back unpleasant memories of the sub-prime loan debacle a decade ago. Does this recent weakness in the leveraged loan market have negative implications for the macro U.S. economy?

Powell noted ‘mood of angst’ and made it worse
Michael Mackenzie (FT) Dec 19, 2018
Fed chair highlighted growth concerns without signalling pause to rate rises.

Prepare for a synchronised global slowdown
Megan Greene (FT) Dec 19, 2018
The US, European and Asian central banks are on the alert as the economy weakens.

Why China’s bond defaults are actually a good thing
Adam McCabe (FT) Dec 19, 2018
A bond market with no defaults creates the wrong incentives for borrowers and investors.

Powell to Markets: Take That
WSJ Dec 19, 2018
The Fed says more rate increases are coming, so get used to it.

Private fears about China’s private sector
Gordon Watts (AT) Dec 19, 2018
An influential report shows the country’s private sector is shrinking for the first time in two decades as calls for accelerating reform gather pace.

The specter of deflation makes for a dovish Fed
David P. Goldman (AT) Dec 19, 2018
Policymakers can’t ignore the combination of collapsing stock, weak home and plunging oil prices.

Navigating the new international economic policy landscape
Shiro Armstrong and Peter Drysdale (EAF) Dec 19, 2018
Economic policy and engagement reinforce and habituate a rules-based international order and, significantly, create a bigger, broader plurality of interests in countries that reduces the costs of national security.

Brexit: The UK’s Fundamental Miscalculations on Europe
Holger Schmieding (Globalist) Dec 19, 2018
Any final Brexit deal will come with a lot of cherry picking. But it will be EU that will do the picking – not the UK.

China’s View of the Trade War Has Changed—and So Has Its Strategy
Alicia García-Herrero (Bruegel/Brink) Dec 19, 2018
China’s realization of the structural nature of its competition with the U.S. has led it to a more strategic, rather than tactical, response: a shift from retaliatory measures on trade to a three-pole strategy.

The Fed Should Ignore Trump and Raise Rates
Bloomberg View Dec 19, 2018
Not to snub the president, but because the economy requires it.

What Game Theory Says About May’s Brexit Choices
Mohamed Aly El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Dec 19, 2018
The U.K. prime minister may already have made too many compromises to be able to opt for either a hard withdrawal or a new referendum to remain.

Markets Join Trump in Pleading for the Fed to Stop
Brian Chappatta (Bloomberg View) Dec 19, 2018
They are truly fighting the central bank for the first time since early 2017.

Stocks Face Obstacle No Matter What the Fed Does
Stephen Gandel (Bloomberg View) Dec 19, 2018
The risks for investors are high, while the premium isn’t.

It’s Not Just the Superstar Cities That Are Getting Richer
Justin Fox (Bloomberg View) Dec 19, 2018
The story that economic rewards keep flowing to the same places has some truth to it, but not the whole truth.

The Fed’s Risky Plan to Boost Unemployment
Narayana Kocherlakota (Bloomberg View) Dec 19, 2018
Is nailing the inflation target worth it?

Fed’s No-Win: Balancing Growth and Market Fragility
Mohamed Aly El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Dec 19, 2018
Powell increasingly must make the best of factors mostly outside his control, increasing fears of a policy mistake.

A Business Model for Sustainability
Paul Polman (Project Syndicate) Dec 19, 2018
Business leaders must recognize that in global value chains, there is no way to outsource environmental or social responsibility. On the contrary, multinational companies can and must use their extended supply chains to drive change and improve the quality of life in the markets where they operate.

Globalization 4.0 for Whom?
Winnie Byanyima (Project Syndicate) Dec 19, 2018
For the last 40 years, policies governing trade, capital flows, and taxation have adhered to a neoliberal model of race-to-the-bottom competition, resulting in rising inequality and political discontent. And the elites gathering in Davos next month have yet to acknowledge the need for a new approach to governing the global economy.

Clap Your Hands If You Believe in Brexit
Robert Saunders (FP) Dec 19, 2018
As the March 29 Brexit deadline looms large in the United Kingdom, Brexiteers are approaching Britain’s difficult geopolitical realities with magical thinking.

A robust blueprint to reform the auditors
FT View Dec 20, 2018
Twin studies are a step forward in curbing the dominance of the Big Four.

Brexit Britain should follow Canada’s lead
Philip Stephens (FT) Dec 20, 2018
Ottawa offers an example of how second-rank powers can project global influence.

One thing about Brexit is certain — no one knows anything
Henry Mance (FT) Dec 20, 2018
Even the professionals’ predictions about what would happen have turned out wrong.

The new era of US-China decoupling
Edward Luce (FT) Dec 20, 2018
Decades of convergence are starting to unravel, forcing other nations to choose sides.

Markets gloominess risks becoming self-fulfilling
Laurence Fletcher (FT) Dec 20, 2018
Sharp moves in financial markets will eventually do damage to the economy.

Hungary ‘slave law’ protest shows strains of economic model
Valerie Hopkins and James Shotter (FT) Dec 20, 2018
Labour shortages and anti-migrant stance hamper drive to attract manufacturing.

Clock is ticking for Beijing to stimulate economy
James Kynge (FT) Dec 20, 2018
Credit squeeze lies at heart of what is ailing China’s domestic stock markets.

Passive attack: the story of a Wall Street revolution
Robin Wigglesworth (FT) Dec 20, 2018
The explosive growth of index funds has changed markets. How far can they go?

After shock
Catherine Rampell (WP) Dec 20, 2018
A recession is coming. Trump will make it so much worse.

The new Great Game on the Roof of the World
Pepe Escobar (AT) Dec 20, 2018
CPEC involves road and rail projects, dams and a pipeline from Gwadar to Xinjiang, but it is very long-term endeavor as a visit to the country revealed

Five Key Takeaways from PIMCO’s Cyclical Outlook: Synching Lower
Joachim Fels (PIMCO) Dec 20, 2018
Five key macro debates are likely to shape the economic and market outlook for 2019.

Steel Profits Gain, but Steel Users Pay, under Trump’s Protectionism
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Euijin Jung (PIIE) Dec 20, 2018
At the center of President Donald Trump’s industrial policy has been his pledge to bring back jobs in the steel industry by slapping tariffs on imported steel. On March 23, 2018, he imposed a 25 percent duty on nearly all steel imports.

The Fed Continues Its Tightening Campaign
Joseph E. Gagnon (PIIE) Dec 20, 2018
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC, or Fed) raised the target for the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage point to a range of 2.25 to 2.50 percent at its December 2018 meeting, in line with market expectations. The Fed also indicated that it is likely to raise interest rates another 0.50 percentage point in 2019, down 0.25 percentage point from the median of its previous projections in September. Overall, the decision was a finely balanced one, with good arguments for and against raising rates at this meeting. It seems likely that decisions on future rate hikes will remain close calls well into next year.

How Uzbekistan is transforming into an open economy
Lilia Burunciuc, Wolfgang Fengler, Wiebke Schloemer and Daria Taglioni (Brookings) Dec 20, 2018
Uzbekistan is in its second year of a wide-ranging market-oriented program of reforms. The government is making three fundamental shifts to the economy: from a command-and-control to a market-based economy; from a public sector-dominated to a private sector-driven economy; and from being inward-looking and isolationist to outward looking and open. These reforms are taking place amid growing external imbalances and a youth bulge that cannot be tackled without more jobs from the private sector.

Saudi Arabia’s Blurred Vision for Economic Reform
Bloomberg View Dec 20, 2018
Extravagant spending in next year’s budget threatens to scare investors.

India’s Assault on Central Bank Autonomy Is Just Starting
Andy Mukherjee (Bloomberg View) Dec 20, 2018
Freeing weak, unreformed banks to lend again will be a precursor to giving errant corporate debtors a reprieve.

Putin Erases the Truth About the Ruble
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Dec 20, 2018
Russia has banned the ubiquitous street displays of the currency’s value, and perhaps nostalgia, to hide any hint of weakness.

Emerging Markets Are Fed Up With FedEx and the Fed
Shuli Ren (Bloomberg View) Dec 20, 2018
A guidance cut by the courier, a proxy for global growth, and the central bank’s rate hike show the challenges developing countries face.

Italy Postpones its Day of Reckoning
Ferdinando Giugliano (Bloomberg View) Dec 20, 2018
A showdown with the EU over its budget plans has been avoided. But another political battle is coming.

Crypto’s Terrible Year Was Actually Pretty Good
Aaron Brown (Bloomberg View) Dec 20, 2018
Bitcoin’s collapse in 2018 fell between the rapid plunge of 2011 and the slower one in 2013.

Hey China! Check How the U.S. Trade War With Japan Went Down
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Dec 20, 2018
If Trump revisited that battle he wouldn’t find the big win he’s looking for today.

Investors to U.K. Plc: Sorry, There Is No Money
Chris Hughes (Bloomberg View) Dec 20, 2018
One rights offering sends a message to all companies in Brexit Britain.

Is the Market Overreacting or Is the Fed Underreacting?
Karl W Smith (Bloomberg View) Dec 20, 2018
Markets tend to be better than economists at predicting recessions.

A Multiple-Choice Brexit
John Micklethwait (Bloomberg View) Dec 20, 2018
How Britons can find their way to the least worst option.

R.I.P. Brexit?
Jacek Rostowski (Project Syndicate)_ Dec 20, 2018
After invoking Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon prematurely, British Prime Minister Theresa May has spent the past 21 months dancing around the impossibility of a quick withdrawal from the European Union. But with the House of Commons set to reject the exit deal she negotiated with EU leaders, the music is about to stop.

HIV and the SDGs
Christine Stegling (Project Syndicate) Dec 20, 2018
Despite decades of progress, HIV infection rates are highest among those who live on the margins of society, underscoring the importance of linking public-health battles with human development. That is why the fight against HIV will not end until the Sustainable Development Goals are met.

The Biggest Emerging Market Debt Problem Is in America
Carmen M. Reinhart (Project Syndicate) Dec 20, 2018
A decade after the subprime bubble burst, a new one seems to be taking its place in the market for corporate collateralized loan obligations. A world economy geared toward increasing the supply of financial assets has hooked market participants and policymakers alike into a global game of Whac-A-Mole.

Brexit Math
Jolyon Howorth (YaleGlobal) Dec 20, 2018
The British are discovering that the decision is far too big for one close vote riddled with faulty information.

Markets deliver a sharp jolt to an unwary Fed
FT View Dec 21, 2018
The US central bank needs to pay more attention to downside risks.

Xi Jinping has changed China’s winning formula
Gideon Rachman (FT) Dec 21, 2018
The legacy of Deng Xiaoping has been threatened during the past year.

The UK’s immigration debate is not only about economics
Camilla Cavendish (FT) Dec 21, 2018
Culture, identity and a sense of fairness matter just as much to many people.

May should take a business approach to Brexit
Mohamed Amersi (FT) Dec 21, 2018
Transformational deals require a supermajority to show shareholder approval.

A painful wait for clarity on this market tempest
Michael Mackenzie (FT) Dec 21, 2018
Investors face stormy conditions until we know more about the US economy and the Fed’s intentions.

Slower Fed tightening poised to revive risk assets
Michael Strobaek (FT) Dec 21, 2018
Slightly weaker US dollar will provide relief to emerging markets.

Norway’s oil fund gives it an ambiguous attitude to wealth
Martin Sandbu (FT) Dec 21, 2018
Tentative enjoyment of natural riches has protected the country from the curse of crude.

Markets are tumbling but it’s not time to panic yet
Robin Wigglesworth (FT) Dec 21, 2018
The final, more volatile leg of the post-crisis bull run still has a way to go.

No-deal Brexit stockpiling? Don’t forget the sumac
Robert Shrimsley (FT) Dec 21, 2018
‘We are all going to have to make sacrifices: there are Leavers near me who are ready to eat white bread to make this work’.

Lottery-Like Prizes Coax Savings. What’s the Risk in Expanding Them?
Seema Jayachandran (NYT) Dec 21, 2018
Lotteries may exploit psychological biases, but that bug can become a feature when modified to nudge better behavior.

The Italian Budget Fudge
WSJ Dec 20, 2018
If only Europe applied this much creativity to stimulating growth.

The Worst Brexit Option, Except for All the Others
Matthias Matthijs (FA) Dec 20, 2018
Why Theresa May’s deal is the best way forward.

Clock is ticking to find a US-China trade war breakthrough
Gordon Watts (AT) Dec 21, 2018
To illustrate the magnitude of the challenge, the World Bank has now waded into the forced 'technology transfer' row

Sell everything – but look at emerging markets
David Goldman (AT) Dec 21, 2018
Stock selloff sets up month to be worst December since the great depression.

May’s Other Option on Brexit
Therese Raphael (Bloomberg View) Dec 21, 2018
Nobody wants another election. It might just be her only way out.

How China Could Blow It
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Dec 21, 2018
There already are some signs that the country is making mistakes that will hobble economic growth.

Libor, the $370 Trillion Zombie That the Watchdogs Can’t Kill
Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg View) Dec 21, 2018
Global efforts to replace the busted benchmark have run up against some serious market inertia. Officials should try fixing it instead.

Bitcoin Cash's 180% Bounce Looks Like a Dead Cat
Lionel Laurent (Bloomberg View) Dec 21, 2018
Maybe the digital currency acolytes will prove all the obituary writers wrong. But when you look at this year’s charts, it’s a very brave call.

Mnuchin Forgot to Check His Figures on Stock Volatility
Nir Kaissar (Bloomberg View) Dec 21, 2018
If anything, it has been lower than usual in recent years, not higher.

The Fed Needs a Little Push From the Data for a Pause
Timothy A Duy (Bloomberg View) Dec 21, 2018
Policy makers will eventually yield to the weakness in financial markets, but they won’t go down without a fight.

Good Riddance to 2018
Javier Solana (Project Syndicate) Dec 21, 2018
Those who oppose democracy, the rule of law, and multilateralism have had a good year. But there have also been signs suggesting that those who uphold these principles have not lost the will to fight back.

Macron’s Misstep Is Europe’s Loss
Dominique Moisi (Project Syndicate) Dec 21, 2018
The street rallies and riots across France over the past month represent the largest crisis of Emmanuel Macron's presidency, and pose a direct threat to French leadership within the European Union. But while Macron has only himself to blame for the popular backlash, that doesn't mean France or Europe would be better off without him.

Decision Time for Europe
Carl Bildt (Project Syndicate) Dec 21, 2018
After muddling through a series of profound crises over the past decade, the EU now finds itself confronted with a political meltdown in Britain, a potential trade war with the US, and mounting security threats on its periphery. To address these and other challenges, Europe will have to make decisions it would rather continue to postpone.

Partisan professionals: Evidence from credit rating analysts
Elisabeth Kempf and Margarita Tsoutsoura (VoxEU) Dec 21, 2018
Partisanship in the US is on the rise. With growing disagreement across voters of different political parties on key issues, understanding the potential implications of this trend for the US economy is of first-order importance. This column examines the degree to which partisan ideology affects the decisions of financial analysts. Using a novel dataset that links credit rating analysts to party affiliations from voter registration records, it shows that analysts who are not affiliated with the US president's party are more likely to downward-adjust corporate credit ratings.

Sanctions Are Just the Beginning for Iran
Yigal Chazan (FP) Dec 21, 2018
If Iran does not move forward on international financial transparency compliance, the country will be even worse off economically.

Beware entrenching Brexit divisions
Matthew O'Toole (FT) Dec 22, 2018
The unloved backstop in May’s deal offers a new strategic advantage.

Will Bad Bankers Ever Be Punished?
Frank Vogl (Globalist) Dec 22, 2018
What can be done to rein in the prevailing culture of greed at leading global banks?

Behind the Myth of China's Great Technology Grab
Anjani Trivedi (Bloomberg View) Dec 22, 2018
The issue of forced transfers is overstated. Carmakers know how to safeguard their most advanced know-how.

The World Will Pay for Not Dealing With Debt
Satyajit Das (Bloomberg View) Dec 22, 2018
Inventive policymaking has only made the problem worse, guaranteeing that any eventual restructuring will be all the more painful.

What's Got Oil So Spooked? It's the Economy, Stupid
Julian Lee (Bloomberg View) Dec 22, 2018
That, and some pretty unfounded skepticism on OPEC’s willingness to follow through with production cuts.

US shale’s financial blanket at risk of wearing thin 2019
Ed Crooks (FT) Dec 23, 2018
Model that dominates industry has been underpinned by low rates and quantitative easing.

Weakening dollar spells the end of lucrative QE trades
Jan Dehn (FT) Dec 23, 2018
Emerging market currencies, debt and stocks set to step out from greenback’s shadow.

Crisis of modern liberalism is down to market forces
Wolfgang Münchau (FT) Dec 23, 2018
Liberals are often led astray by their addiction to macroeconomic variables such as GDP.

Earth needs a huge investment to solve energy’s pollution problem
Arun Majumdar (FT) Dec 23, 2018
One idea is to charge producers for the CO2 they emit, then pay the cash to citizens.

Invisible geniuses: The advancement of the knowledge frontier
Ruchir Agarwal and Patrick Gaulé (VoxEU) Dec 23, 2018
Exceptional mathematics talents generate breakthroughs that move the entire field forward. This column explores how the talent of exceptional mathematics students from several countries affects their outcomes and contributions to the field. Small differences in talent during adolescence are associated with sizeable differences in long-term achievements, from getting a PhD to receiving a Fields medal. The research highlights the social losses associated with the lack of opportunities available to students in low-income countries.

How the future of work may unfold: A demand-side perspective
Jacques Bughin (VoxEU) Dec 23, 2018
Advances in artificial intelligence have led to fears of job losses. This column uses a global survey covering more than 3,000 executives across 14 sectors and ten countries to examine the impact of AI on the demand side of the labour market. Ultimately, the effect on employment will depend on whether companies choose to use current forms of AI for innovation or pure automation, and whether they foresee a return from it.

Economy Is Strong. Leadership Is Shaky. Which Will Win Out in 2019?
Neil Irwin (NYT) Dec 24, 2018
Moves like Mnuchin’s phone calls to bank C.E.O.s could create a broader crisis of confidence.

Wonder how the Trump administration would handle a financial crisis? Well, now we know.
Catherine Rampell (WP) Dec 24, 2018
The Keystone Cops are officially in charge of our economy.

Overconfidence at the Fed
WSJ Dec 24, 2018
Stocks are down more than 8% since last week’s monetary move.

A silver lining for Chinese stocks
David P. Goldman (AT) Dec 24, 2018
While the campaign to contain Huawei is failing miserably, Trump has little choice but to strike a trade deal to save US equities

The Problem With Europe’s Fiscal Truce
Bloomberg View Dec 24, 2018
The European Union has compromised with Italy and France. It may come to regret it.

Tunisia’s Best Hope for Economic Reform
Bobby Ghosh (Bloomberg View) Dec 24, 2018
Central bank head Marouane El Abbasi can take stands that politicians can’t.

The Debt Market's $200 Billion Gorilla Wakes Up
Marcus Ashworth (Bloomberg View) Dec 24, 2018
Volkswagen came back to bonds in a big way this year. What it does next under Treasurer Joerg Boche will have huge implications for European credit.

Professor Has Some Questions About Your Index Funds
Nir Kaissar (Bloomberg View) Dec 24, 2018
Lu Zhang of Ohio State University is skeptical about market-beating factors.

Trump Has Likely Done Lasting Damage to the Fed
Timothy A Duy (Bloomberg View) Dec 24, 2018
The President is both setting in motion a crisis while undermining the institution that needs to respond to that crisis.

Learning from China
Erik Berglöf (Project Syndicate) Dec 24, 2018
Despite 40 years of unprecedented economic growth, Chinese leaders' efforts to promote their development model have run up against political suspicion. But it makes little sense for countries to reject outright the lessons of China’s economic miracle, and deepening hostility between China and the West is in nobody’s interest.

Could China Turn Inward?
Jeongmin Seong and Jonathan Woetzel (Project Syndicate) Dec 24, 2018
Notwithstanding the 90-day trade truce on which US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping recently agreed, tensions between the world's two largest economies remain high. But while both countries may be tempted to turn inward, there are five reasons why they would be wise not to.

In Defense of the Fed
Stephen S. Roach (Project Syndicate) Dec 24, 2018
Despite howls of protest from market participants and rumored threats from an unhinged US president, the Federal Reserve should be congratulated for its commitment to normalizing interest rates. There is simply no other way to break the US economy's 20-year dependence on asset bubbles.

Equity capital inflows, corporate financing, and growth
Charles Calomiris, Mauricio Larrain and Sergio Schmukler (VoxEU) Dec 24, 2018
In emerging economies, studies of the relationship between foreign investor participation in public equity markets and aggregate economic activity find strong effects on productivity, investment, economic growth, and the price of publicly traded stocks. But it is not clear why. The column shows that equity capital inflows increase the supply of funding available to firms in emerging market economies, encouraging firms to obtain more equity financing to invest and expand. Large firms benefit most from those inflows.

Newcomer CEOs: Performing in times of crisis
Sharmin Sazedj, João Amador and José Tavares (VoxEU) Dec 24, 2018
When appointing a CEO, firms can choose a newcomer or someone who has been at the firm for a long time. Using data on Portuguese firms in the wake of the Global Crisis, this column finds no performance gap between newcomers and experienced CEOs in the period prior to the crisis. During the crisis, however, firms run by newcomer CEOs outperformed those run by experienced insiders. Newcomers attain higher productivity by making different decisions regarding personnel, expenditure, investment, and international trade.

Substance or Show? The Belt and Road Forum
Jiang Jiying & Shi Weiyi (Global Asia) Dec 24, 2018
The 2017 forum in Beijing attracted many world leaders. But it not yet clear if it can be a new venue for Chinese influence.

Using Sentiment and Momentum to Predict Stock Returns
Kevin J. Lansing and Michael Tubbs (FRBSF Econ Letter) Dec 24, 2018
Studies that seek to forecast stock price movements often consider measures of market sentiment or stock return momentum as predictors. Recent research shows that a multiplicative combination of sentiment and momentum can help predict the return on the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index over the next month. This predictive power derives mainly from periods when sentiment has been declining over the past year and recent return momentum is negative—periods that coincide with an increase in investor attention to the stock market as measured by a Google search volume index.

US trade war raises the specter of new Cold War
Sebastien Falletti (AT) Dec 25, 2018
Solving the dispute with the US will be China President Xi Jinping’s key priority in the Year of the Golden Pig along with a slowing economy

New year, old problems for Italy’s banking sector
Rachel Sanderson (FT) Dec 26, 2018
Collapse of capital-raising at midsized lender Carige risks adding to investor fears.

Five things that shook Africa in 2018
David Pilling (FT) Dec 26, 2018
As elderly autocrats cling on, the continent took baby steps towards a brighter future.

Trump’s Broken Nafta Promise
WSJ Dec 26, 2018
The U.S. still hasn’t lifted metals tariffs on Canada and Mexico.

Ugly Markets Might Contaminate the U.S. Economy
Mohamed Aly El-Erian (Bloomberg View) Dec 26, 2018
Missteps and mismanagement by the country’s leadership pose a growing risk.

Trump Is a Test of the Economy’s Breaking Point
Noah Smith (Bloomberg View) Dec 26, 2018
So far, presidential chaos hasn’t mattered very much. There’s no guarantee that will last.

China’s Myth-Busting Miracle
Éloi Laurent (Project Syndicate) Dec 26, 2018
On the 40th anniversary of China's great "opening up" under Deng Xiaoping, its leaders deserve praise for lifting hundreds of millions of people out of poverty and surpassing the United States as the world's largest economy. But China's experience has also dispelled three myths about the impact of economic growth.

The High Cost of “De-Risking” Infrastructure Finance
Howard Mann (Project Syndicate) Dec 26, 2018
The World Bank recently started advising governments to assume the bulk of the risk in public-private partnerships, so as to attract more private-sector players. But in addition to introducing an unacceptable moral hazard, this guidance is creating a possible doomsday scenario for debt-saddled developing countries around the world.

How Inequality Undermines Economic Performance
Michael Spence (Project Syndicate) Dec 26, 2018
France's Yellow Vest protests are rooted in frustration with the government’s indifference to the plight of struggling households outside France’s urban centers. With job and income polarization having increased across all developed economies in recent decades, developments in France should serve as a wake-up call to others.

Turning Brexit Into a Celebration of Democracy
Yanis Varoufakis (Project Syndicate) Dec 26, 2018
Paradoxically, while the current Brexit impasse is pregnant with risk, the British should welcome it. Their discontent with the choices before them is an opportunity, not a curse, and more democracy is the antidote, not the disease.

Expect more turbulence from Trump’s Fed fight
Gillian Tett (FT) Dec 27, 2018
Crude attack on central bank undermines a key steadying influence on the US economy.

investors must realise that 2018 was no aberration
Nikhil Srinivasan (FT) Dec 27, 2018
The level of uncertainty facing investors in the new year is particularly acute.

Three takeaways from a volatile year for 2019
Mohamed El-Erian (FT) Dec 27, 2018
This year’s tumbles offer a stark reminder of the importance of building adequate protection.

China plagued by local government debt risks
Gordon Watts (AT) Dec 27, 2018
Transparency issues highlight problems facing Beijing as it ramps up deleveraging campaign and illustrates challenges facing People’s Bank of China

Investment from China into the United States Has Fallen to Nearly Zero
Jeffrey J. Schott, Zhiyao (Lucy) Lu, William Melancon and Melina Kolb (PIIE) Dec 27, 2018
Chinese investment in the United States has virtually dried up in 2018. Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) is projected to fall 86 percent in 2018 compared to 2017, from $29.4 billion to $4.0 billion.

Tariffs Should Target Chinese Lawlessness, Not the Trade Deficit
Martin Feldstein (WSJ) Dec 27, 2018
Beijing’s strategy is to steal technology from American and other Western companies.

The ECB’s Quantitative Easing Was a Failure — Here Is What It Actually Did
Daniel Lacalle (Mises wire) Dec 27, 2018
The biggest “success” of the ECB has been the massive bailout of governments at the expense of savers.

American People to Trump: What’s Goin’ on in the Markets?
Richard Phillips (Globalist) Dec 27, 2018
What makes this particular market correction so spooky is that, unlike in 2008, no single reason has yet been identified as causing the downturn.

There Is Logic Behind the Stock Market
Shira Ovide (Bloomberg View) Dec 27, 2018
Even after a rough decline, U.S. equities still aren’t cheap.

Investors Are More Wary of Trump Than of Wall Street
Conor Sen (Bloomberg View) Dec 27, 2018
The thriving economy was the one thing that sustained Trump's approval ratings. Without that....

Thank Goodness the Fed Is Thinking Globally
Daniel Moss (Bloomberg View) Dec 27, 2018
The U.S. economy is not an island, and the central bank has stopped pretending that it is.

The Sum of All Brexit Fears
Chris Patten (Project Syndicate) Dec 27, 2018
The Leavers lied: The costs of withdrawing from the European Union were always destined to outweigh the benefits. Alas, the responsible, imaginative, and inclusive political leadership needed to minimize the damage is nowhere in sight.

Is Canceling Brexit Now Inevitable?
Anatole Kaletsky (Project Syndicate) Dec 27, 2018
As matters stand today, a new British referendum on leaving the European Union would produce a clear majority for remaining a member, regardless of how the votes were counted or the questions were asked. And with the only two Brexit options set to be rejected next month, the questions are increasingly likely to be asked.

Why Is the Fed Still Raising Interest Rates?
Martin Feldstein (Project Syndicate) Dec 27, 2018
Given that the US Federal Reserve has long said that its interest-rate policy is “data dependent,” why has it pressed ahead with monetary tightening in the face of worsening economic indicators? Three reasons stand out.

The Center Left and Globalization
Kemal Dervis and Caroline Conroy (Project Syndicate) Dec 27, 2018
After promising to reform both France and the European Union, President Emmanuel Macron is now struggling to reclaim the public's confidence and prove that he is not the "President of the Rich." By pursuing a business-friendly reform agenda, Macron has fallen into a trap that center-left reformers everywhere seem incapable of avoiding.

US needs multilateralism as much as its partners
FT View Dec 28, 2018
As new risks loom, global co-operation needs to be revived in 2019.

Economic causes of a bad year for active investors
Gavyn Davies (FT) Dec 28, 2018
Markets became much more treacherous in 2018 as the global cycle matured.

The view of Brexit as a ‘conscious uncoupling’ is fanciful
Chris Giles (FT) Dec 28, 2018
Theresa May is discovering that leaving the EU is much harder than anyone thought.

Four Questions for the Year Ahead
N. Gregory Mankiw (NYT) Dec 28, 2018
What’s in store for the year ahead? Like all economists, I really don’t know. But I can suggest some critical things to look out for.

US Trade Deficit with China Keeps Growing, Even with Tariffs
Jeffrey J. Schott, Zhiyao (Lucy) Lu, Melina Kolb and William Melancon (PIIE) Dec 28, 2018
Despite the Trump administration’s penalty tariffs on China, the US goods trade deficit with the country is 10 percent higher than it was in 2017, projected to reach $413 billion in 2018. The US-China trade war has not prevented Chinese firms from sending more shipments to the United States.

The Depression of 2019-2021?
Brendan Brown (Mises Wire) Dec 28, 2018
History never quite repeats itself, but we can look for echoes of depressions from the 1920 and 1930s. Indeed, our current bubble shares some characteristics with bubbles of the past.

Stock Markets and the Trump Factor
Uwe Bott (Globalist) Dec 28, 2018
While Trump says it’s all the Fed’s fault, this is why U.S. stock markets are really collapsing.

AI Competition Is the New Space Race
Leonid Bershidsky (Bloomberg View) Dec 28, 2018
The technology still has a long way to go despite progress in 2018. The EU, U.S. and China are all determined not to be left behind.

Inside Xi Jinping’s Plan to Dominate the World
Henry Brands (Bloomberg View) Dec 28, 2018
Elizabeth Economy’s “The Third Revolution” makes the case that China is most dangerous in the realm of ideas.

Can Trump's Trade War General Make Peace?
David Fickling (Bloomberg View) Dec 28, 2018
That’s the task for U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. He may be more comfortable with confrontation.

Nature vs. Infrastructure
Maxwell Gomera (Project Syndicate) Dec 28, 2018
The twenty-first century will be a period of unprecedented infrastructure expansion, and a staggering $90 trillion will be spent over the next 15 years to build or replace dams, power plants, and other facilities. The only way to avoid environmentally reckless projects is to recognize the true value of nature.

Reconciling Chinese National Security and Economic Growth
Andrew Sheng and Xiao Geng (Project Syndicate) Dec 28, 2018
The increasingly hardline “America First” approach taken by the US risks strengthening China’s own hardliners, who will push to emphasize national security over continued "reform and opening up." So far, however, President Xi Jinping remains committed to maintaining the pragmatic approach that has guided China for 40 years.

Trump vs. the Economy
Nouriel Roubini (Project Syndicate) Dec 28, 2018
Between publicly chastising US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and escalating his trade war with China, US President Donald Trump has finally rattled the markets. While investors were happy to look the other way during the first half of Trump's term, the dangerous spectacle unfolding in the White House can no longer be ignored.

Beijing’s Big, Bad Year
James Palmer (FP) Dec 28, 2018
As the United States and China clashed over trade in 2018, the future of the People’s Republic looked grimmer—and more important—than ever.

US energy independence is not the prize it seems
Ed Crooks (FT) Dec 29, 2018
American policymakers still have good reason to be wary of a future oil shock.

There must be more to public policy than Brexit
FT View Dec 29, 2018
Leaving the EU is not an excuse to ignore pressing domestic problems.

Energy issues to watch in 2019
Nick Butler (FT) Dec 30, 2018
The imposition of US sanctions on Iran could have the greatest impact on the sector.

A Macron failure would bode ill for the EU’s future
Wolfgang Münchau (FT) Dec 30, 2018
May elections will determine whether the bloc can stand on its own in a more hostile world.

Bolsonomics: the reform plans of Brazil’s new president
Joe Leahy and Andres Schipani (FT) Dec 30, 2018
Does Jair Bolsonaro have the political will to push through his economic proposals?

The Euro’s Next 20 Years
WSJ Dec 30, 2018
The currency has defied its critics, but lack of supply-side reforms threatens its future.

Financial sector under scrutiny ahead of India’s elections
Suman Bery (EAF) Dec 30, 2018
Although India has played a more and more prominent role internationally, domestic developments in banking and finance … have been the most significant issue in India over the past year.

Life Is Getting Harder for Central Banks
Mohamed Aly El-Erian (Mohamed Aly El-Erian) Dec 30, 2018
The Fed and the ECB are retreating from the business of ensuring market calm.

Japan Stocks Can Be the Haven in a Bleak World
Ronald W Chan (Ronald W Chan) Dec 30, 2018
Stable politics and a positive economy make the country a top pick for the New Year in a troubled global environment.

Trump's China Strategy Isn't Working
Anne Stevenson-Yang (Bloomberg View) Dec 30, 2018
The administration’s scattershot approach is ineffective, if not harmful to U.S. interests. And it’s only amplifying Beijing’s nationalist tune.

The demographic time bomb that could hit America
Catherine Rampell (WP) Dec 31, 2018
Japan’s demographic crisis provides some lessons for where America might be headed.

Markets reflect the world we currently inhabit: Full of risk
John H. Cochrane (Hill) Dec 31, 2018
What’s causing the big drop in the stock market and the bout of enormous volatility we’re seeing at the end of the year?

Europe: Five Big Surprises for 2019
Martin Hüfner (Globalist) Dec 31, 2018
Dealing in alternate realities is a tricky business. As is often noted, predictions are hard, especially about the future.

Beijing Dithers as the Economy Declines
Christopher Balding (Bloomberg View) Dec 31, 2018
China’s slowdown is more acute than appreciated, and December’s policy summit failed to set a clear direction.

How the U.S. Should Treat Brazil’s Bolsonaro
Eli Lake (Bloomberg View) Dec 31, 2018
American officials can support some of his policies while making it clear they will not tolerate his authoritarian tendencies.

Can Any Politician Have a ‘Good’ Brexit? Yes
Therese Raphael (Bloomberg View) Dec 31, 2018
Labour's Keir Starmer has harried the government successfully; he's about to play a big role in shaping Britain's departure from the EU.

Latin America’s Weak Economic Recovery
José Antonio Ocampo (Project Syndicate) Dec 31, 2018
With the right approach, Latin America, which has recorded just 0.5% average annual GDP growth during the last five years, could improve its economic prospects considerably, potentially avoiding another lost half-decade. The question is whether it will muster the political will to take the necessary steps.

A Thimbleful of Optimism for 2019
Kaushik Basu (Project Syndicate) Dec 31, 2018
Amid today's global conflicts, debasement of public debate, attacks on democratic institutions, and escalating geopolitical tensions, it is hard to find much cause for hope. But it is still possible to restore faith in our shared humanity.

Brexit Does Not Matter
Simon Johnson (Project Syndicate) Dec 31, 2018
A chaotic Brexit could do great damage to ordinary people, as was the case with Britain’s self-ejection from the Exchange Rate Mechanism of the European Monetary System in 1992. But those ordinary people will be overwhelmingly British. The days when Britain could move the world are long gone.

Who Benefits from Trump’s Trade War?
Koichi Hamada (Project Syndicate) Dec 31, 2018
Donald Trump’s trade war with China poses a serious threat to the US itself, which is bound to suffer severe losses due to trade diversion. But it may also lead to broader damage, as tit-for-tat tariffs reduce overall exports, undermine total global trade flows, and impede world economic growth.